Central and Eastern Europe in the European Union
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Should Poland Join the Euro? an Economic and Political Analysis
Should Poland Join the Euro? An Economic and Political Analysis Should Poland Join the Euro? An Economic and Political Analysis Graduate Policy Workshop February 2016 Michael Carlson Conor Carroll Iris Chan Geoff Cooper Vanessa Lehner Kelsey Montgomery Duc Tran Table of Contents Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................ i About the WWS Graduate Policy Workshop ........................................................................................ ii Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................. 1 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 2 2 The Evolution of Polish Thought on Euro Adoption ................................................................. 5 2.1 Pre-EU membership reforms ...................................................................................................................... 5 2.2 After EU Accession ....................................................................................................................................... 5 2.3 Crisis years ...................................................................................................................................................... 6 2.4 Post-crisis assessment .................................................................................................................................. -
A Report on the Costs and Benefits of Poland’S Adoption of the Euro
A Report on the Costs and Benefits of Poland’s Adoption of the Euro Warsaw, March 2004 Edited by: Jakub Borowski Authors: Jakub Borowski Micha∏ Brzoza-Brzezina Anna Czoga∏a Tatiana Fic Adam Kot Tomasz J´drzejowicz Wojciech Mroczek Zbigniew Polaƒski Marek Rozkrut Micha∏ Rubaszek Andrzej S∏awiƒski Robert Woreta Zbigniew ˚ó∏kiewski The authors thank Andrzej Bratkowski, Adam B. Czy˝ewski, Ma∏gorzata Golik, Witold Grostal, Andrzej Rzoƒca, El˝bieta Skrzeszewska-Paczek, Iwona Stefaniak, Piotr Szpunar and Lucyna Sztaba for their numerous and insightful remarks on earlier drafts of this Report. The authors thank professor Michael J. Artis for his excellent assistance with the English language version of the Report. The Report was submitted for publishing in March 2004. Design: Oliwka s.c. Printed by: Drukarnia NBP Published by: National Bank of Poland 00-919 Warszawa, ul. Âwi´tokrzyska 11/21, Poland Phone (+48 22) 653 23 35 Fax (+48 22) 653 13 21 © Copyright Narodowy Bank Polski, 2004 2 National Bank of Poland Table of contents Table of contents Executive Summary . .5 Introduction . .9 1. Conditions for accession to the euro area . .13 2. Risks and costs of introducing the euro . .15 2.1. Loss of monetary policy independence . .15 2.1.1. The effectiveness of the exchange rate adjustment mechanism . .18 2.1.2. Labour market adjustment mechanism . .25 2.1.3. The fiscal adjustment mechanism . .27 2.1.4. Convergence of business cycles . .30 2.1.5. Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Area criteria . .36 2.2. Short-term cost of meeting the inflation convergence criterion . .37 2.3. -
247 – £Ukasz W
2 4 7 £ukasz W. Rawdanowicz Poland's Accession to EMU – Choosing the Exchange Rate Parity W a r s a w , 2 0 0 2 Materials published here have a working paper character. They can be subject to further publication. The views and opinions expressed here reflect Authors’ point of view and not necessarily those of the CASE. The publication was financed by AIG Pension Society. Key words: real exchange rates, equilibrium exchange rates, EMU enlargement. Acknowledgements: I am greatly indebted to Przemek Kowalski and Mateusz Szczurek for their valuable and inspiring comments, and their help with collecting data. © CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research, Warsaw 2002 Graphic Design: Agnieszka Natalia Bury DTP: CeDeWu Sp. z o.o. ISSN 1506-1701, ISBN 83-7178-298-5 Publisher: CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research ul. Sienkiewicza 12, 00-944 Warsaw, Poland tel.: (4822) 622 66 27, 828 61 33, fax (4822) 828 60 69 e-mail: [email protected] Contents Abstract 5 1. Introduction 6 2. Concepts of Equilibrium Exchange Rate 7 2.1. PPP 7 2.2. FEER 8 2.3. BEER 9 3. Empirical Estimations 10 3.1. FEER Calculations 11 3.2. BEER Estimations 18 4. What Should Be the Entry Exchange Rate? 20 5. Conclusions 25 References 27 Statistical Appendix 29 Studies & Analyses CASE No. 247 – £ukasz W. Rawdanowicz £ ukasz W. Rawdanowicz £ukasz Rawdanowicz graduated from Sussex University in 1998 (MA in International Economics) and Warsaw University - Department of Economics in 1999 (MA in quantitative methods). His main area of interest is macroeconomics and econometrics. -
Circles and Hemispheres of Integration
Circles and Hemispheres of Integration The Development of a System of Graded European Union Membership Frank Schimmelfennig, ETH Zürich, September 2014 Abstract The study of integration has focused on organizational growth and on the “deepening” and “widening” of regional organizations. By contrast, this paper analyzes organizational differentiation. It conceives of differentiation as a process, in which states either refuse to be integrated or are being refused integration by the core member states but all parties find value in creating in-between grades of membership. A particularly fine-grained system of graded membership has developed in Europe. This paper describes its development and seeks to explain the positioning and movement of states in this system. I argue that the “refusers” and the “refused” are located in different “hemispheres” of integration that cut across the “circles” of membership, and in which membership status is driven by opposite or different factors. The states of the “hemisphere of bad governance” are refused further integration because the core members are concerned about efficiency losses, redistribution, and a dilution of the EU’s democratic identity. By contrast, the states of the “hemisphere of affordable nationalism” refuse further integration because they care strongly about national identity and sovereignty and are wealthy and well-governed enough to resist. A panel analysis of European countries since the early 1990s shows that membership status among the refused countries increases with wealth, democracy, -
2505 Academic Programme
Contents Welcome Welcome messages ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… p.2 Organizing committees ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… p.4 ECPR Standing Group on the EU .. …………………………………………………………………………………………………. p.5 The University of Trento ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. p.5 Academic program Schedule of activities …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… p.6 Jo urnal of Common Market Studies Keynote Lecture ………………………………………………………………….. p.7 Plenary Roundtable ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… p.7 Other events ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… p.8 List of Sections …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. p.9 List of Panels by Section ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. p.10 List of Panels by Session time ………………………………………………………………………………………………………. p.47 Practical information Location ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. p.48 Regist ration ……………………………………………… …………………………………………………………………………………. p.48 Floor plans …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… p.49 Technology …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… p.51 Where to eat ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… p.51 Further information ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… p.5 2 List of registered participants ……………………………………………………………………………………………………… p.53 1 Welcome Welcome messages Dear Participants, it is my pleasure to welcome you to the University of Trento on the occasion of the 8th Pan-European Conference on the EU organized by the ECPR Standing Group on the European -
With 126 Panels, Nearly 500 Researc
Welcome to the 14th Biennial Conference of the European Union Studies Association in Boston! With 126 panels, nearly 500 researchers and practitioners from over 250 institutions across the world are participating in panels, plenaries and roundtables, making this one of the largest EUSA Conferences. We have a diversity of topics and disciplines represented in the program, along with key plenary sessions, followed by evening receptions open to all participants. Among the highlights of the program is an evening plenary panel on Friday: Neoliberal Policies and their Alternatives, followed by a keynote lecture by Thomas Piketty, Inequality in the Europe- and What the EU Could Do About it. Immediately thereafter, there is a reception hosted by the Journal of Common Market Studies. Two other plenaries will focus on the Future of EU Federalism, and the Future of Transatlantic Relations, the latter featuring Baroness Catherine Ashton (former High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy). A panel and discussion Honoring Lifetime Achievement in European Studies Award Recipient James Caporaso, former Chair of EUSA, will take place on Saturday during the lunch time session. A presentation of EUSA Prize Winners will be held on Thursday Evening, where we will award the Ernst Haas Fellowship, Lifetime Achievement Award, Best Book, Best Dissertation and Best Paper Prizes. This will be followed by a EUSA Reception. There are also a number of interest group business meetings listed in the program that conference participants are welcome to attend. The European Union Studies Association is grateful for a generous conference grant from the Lifelong Learning Programme of the European Commission, and logistical assistance, financial sponsorship and organizational support from the Journal of Common Market Studies, College of Europe, Fulbright Commission, Northeastern University, and the University of Pittsburgh, which supports EUSA on its campus. -
Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises: U.S. and EU Export Activities, and Barriers and Opportunities Experienced by U.S
United States International Trade Commission Small and Medium- Sized Enterprises: U.S. and EU Export Activities, and Barriers and Opportunities Experienced by U.S. Firms Investigation No. 332-509 USITC Publication 4169 July 2010 U.S. International Trade Commission COMMISSIONERS Deanna Tanner Okun, Chairman Charlotte R. Lane Daniel R. Pearson Shara L. Aranoff Irving A. Williamson Dean A. Pinkert Robert B. Koopman Acting Director of Operations Arona Butcher Karen Laney Acting Director of Economics Director, Office of Industries Address all communications to Secretary to the Commission United States International Trade Commission Washington, DC 20436 U.S. International Trade Commission Washington, DC 20436 www.usitc.gov Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises: U.S. and EU Export Activities, and Barriers and Opportunities Experienced by U.S. Firms Investigation No. 332-509 Publication 4169 July 2010 Project Leadership Justino De La Cruz, Project Leader [email protected] James Stamps, Deputy Project Leader [email protected] Laura Bloodgood, Office of Industries Coordinator [email protected] Principal Authors Laura Bloodgood William Greene George Serletis Nannette Christ Katherine Linton James Stamps Daniel Cook Brendan Lynch Donald Sussman Justino De La Cruz Ruben Mata Mihir Torsekar Michael Ferrantino Elizabeth Nesbitt Ralph Watkins Dennis Fravel William Powers Isaac Wohl Primary Reviewers Joanne Guth and Joanna Bonarriva Special Assistance From Tamar Asadurian William Gearhart Andrew Martinez Richard Brown Alberto Goetzl Jesse Mora Eric Cardenas Alexander Hammer Andrew Rylyk Dylan Carlson Peg Hausman Patricia M. Thomas Judith Dean Aimee Larsen Alison Weingarden Robert Feinberg Linda Linkins Linda White Office of Publishing Interns Bethany Bengfort, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Vincent Procacci, and Danielle Trachtenberg Under the Direction of Arona Butcher, Chief Country, Regional, and Analysis Division [email protected] ABSTRACT This report examines the extent and composition of U.S. -
Why European Union Member States Opt out of Integration
The Choice for Differentiated Europe: Why European Union Member States Opt out of Integration Thomas Winzen and Frank Schimmelfennig Center for Comparative and International Studies, ETH Zurich, Switzerland1 Paper prepared for the 14th biennial conference of the European Union Studies Association, 5-7 March 2015, Boston, MA. Abstract Since the early 1990s, European integration has become differentiated integration. Treaty revisions and enlargements have resulted in opt-outs for countries such as Britain or Denmark, and in policy areas such as monetary union. Analysing under what conditions member states make use of the opportunity to opt- out or exclude other countries from European integration, we argue that different explanations apply to treaty and accession negotiations respectively. Threatening to block deeper integration, member states with strong national identities secure differentiations in treaty reform, particularly regarding the integration of core state powers. In enlargement, in turn, old member states fear economic disadvantages and low administrative capacity and, therefore impose differentiation on poor newcomers. A logistic regression analysis of the use of differentiation opportunities by member and candidate countries from Maastricht in 1993 to the Croatian accession in 2013 lends empirical support to these arguments. Introduction2 Since the early 1990s, European integration has become differentiated integration. This period has been characterized by a far-reaching extension of the European Union’s policy scope beyond -
A Place at the Top Table? Poland and the Euro Crisis
Reinvention of Europe Project A place at the top table? Poland and the euro crisis By Konstanty Gebert If you want to dine at the European Union’s top table it is important to be able to count on powerful friends who can help you pull up a chair. With an economy only one quarter that of Germany’s, and a population half its size, Poland cannot and does not aspire to have a permanent chair at that top table. But neither can it – with a population accounting for half of all the 2004 enlargement states and an economy among the best-performing in a crisis-ridden EU – content itself with merely a seat at the lower table. This is the challenge facing Poland, as it seeks to follow its developing interests and make its voice heard at a time when the most powerful countries in the EU are pulling in very different directions. Poland’s position within the EU is further complicated by its straddling of several dividing lines. For instance, its future is fundamentally tied to the Eurozone club that it does not belong to but very deeply desires to participate in. It managed to assume the rotating EU presidency for the first time just as the deepest crisis to affect the Union was deepening even further. Following on from the Lisbon Treaty, however, the presidency’s influence is now much reduced, and so Poland was relegated to being a mere observer of decisions made by others, mostly over the future of the Eurozone. Poland also straddles the demographic and economic boundaries between the EU’s major players and its smaller ones (the sixth largest in both categories). -
Financial System Development in Poland 2010
Financial System Development in Poland 2010 Warsaw, 2012 Editors: Paweł Sobolewski Dobiesław Tymoczko Authors: Katarzyna Bień Jolanta Fijałkowska Marzena Imielska Ewelina Jaskólska Piotr Kasprzak Paweł Kłosiewicz Michał Konopczak Sylwester Kozak Dariusz Lewandowski Krzysztof Maliszewski Rafał Nowak Dorota Okseniuk Aleksandra Paterek Aleksandra Pilecka Rafał Sieradzki Karol Siskind Paweł Sobolewski Andrzej Sowiński Mikołaj Stępniewski Michał Wiernicki Andrzej Wojciechowski Design, cover photo: Oliwka s.c. DTP: Print Office NBP Published by: National Bank of Poland Education and Publishing Department 00-919 Warsaw, Świętokrzyska 11/21, Poland Phone 48 22 653 23 35 Fax 48 22 653 13 21 www.nbp.pl © Copyright by National Bank of Poland, 2012 Introduction Table of contents Introduction . 5 1 . Financial system in Poland . 6 1.1. Evolution of the size and structure of the financial system in Poland . .6 1.2. Households and enterprises on the financial market in Poland .........................14 1.2.1. Financial assets of households ...............................................14 1.2.2. External sources of financing of Polish enterprises ................................18 2 . Regulations of the financial system . 21 2.1. Changes in financial system regulations in Poland ..................................21 2.1.1. Regulations affecting the entire financial services sector ...........................23 2.1.2. Regulations regarding the banking services sector ................................26 2.1.3. Regulations regarding non-bank financial institutions .............................32 2.1.4. Regulations regarding the capital market ......................................33 2.2. Measures of the European Union regarding the regulation of the financial services sector ....34 2.2.1. Regulations affecting the entire financial services sector ...........................34 2.2.2. Regulations regarding the banking services sector ................................39 2.2.3. -
Poland Without the Euro a Cost Benefit Analysis 2 Polityka Insight Poland Without the Euro Index
Poland without the euro A cost benefit analysis 2 Polityka Insight Poland without the euro Index EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 1. POLAND’S INTEGRATION WITHIN THE EURO AREA – THE CONTEXT 6 How to adopt the common currency? 8 Survey of social opinions and political positions on euro adoption 14 Analysis of probability of euro being introduced in Poland by 2030 15 2. COSTS OF DELAYING EURO ADOPTION 16 Measurable costs 17 Potential costs 21 Non-measurable costs 25 3. BENEFITS OF DELAYING EURO ADOPTION 28 Measurable benefits 29 Potential benefits 30 Non-measurable benefits 37 4. BALANCE OF COSTS AND BENEFITS OF DELAYING EURO ADOPTION 40 Balance of measurable effects 41 Balance of potential costs and benefits 42 Balance of non-measurable costs and benefits 45 SUMMARY 47 REFERENCES 49 A cost benefit analysis Polityka Insight 1 Executive summary This report deals with the question of adopting the euro in Poland. It differs from previous such works in two respects. First, our ques- tion is not “should Poland adopt the euro?” as the EU Treaties oblige all Member States who joined the EU after the Maastricht Treaty came into force to join the eurozone. Hence, we focus on the implications of Poland's decision to delay its adoption of the common currency. Second, in contrast to previous studies we distinguish between different types of costs and benefits – we identify those which are measurable, those which are po- tential and those which are non-measurable, i.e. are of socio-political nature. In our view such a distinction is required to assess the effects of adopting the euro on the Polish economy in a way which incorporates the possible differenc- es in the preferences of decision-makers and public opinion. -
Poland's Reluctance to Join the Eurozone
1 % POLICY PAPER Poland’s reluctance to join the Eurozone: why the vision of development matters Sebastian Płóciennik § Among explanations why Poland does not fulfill its obligation to join the eurozone, more attention should be devoted to the orientation of Polish capitalism, which is now in the middle of difficult transition from the model of competitiveness based on low-cost labor to competitiveness based on innovations. In recent years, the very content of this systemic change has been a rising role of the state in the economy and a more ambitious social agenda. They both can be at odds with a fast track towards the euro. 2 % Introduction monetary union might have come from the expert discussion on whether the benefits of monetary integration will be as high as promised and costs lower than feared.3 It Despite the obligation to join the eurozone, expressed is difficult to create a convincing pro-euro political narrative in the 2004 EU accession treaty, Poland remains today quite from the sophisticated exchange of arguments, including far away from adopting the common currency. It is not only the lower risk of speculation, transaction costs, risk of an issue of unfulfilled criteria for joining, but also of the higher inflation, threat of asymmetric shocks, advantages of society that perceives this step of deeper integration with monetary autonomy, etc., when what really breaks through reluctance. The polls conducted in recent years showed a to the audience is the potential problem of higher prices. prevalence of thinking that euro-membership would have more negative than positive consequences for the country This text aims at exploring a less conspicuous, but 1 (Figure 1) , and the political scene reflects this conviction.