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AirbusAirbus andand thethe MiddleMiddle EastEast aa storystory ofof historyhistory andand futurefuture Fouad Attar Head of Commercial, Airbus Middle East Muscat, 21st October 2009 a world of cultural diversity Airbus, a global company … with global outreach 20 languages 3 customer support centres More than 5,500 aircraft delivered 13 manufacturing sites 52,000 employees 315 operators 5 spares centres more than 88 nationalities 312 customers engineering design centres training centres 9 250 resident customer support managers 4 160 offices 24 hour customer support (365 days a year) 50 flight simulators 1 global company © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. SEPT 2009 2 Airbus, a long history © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 3 Airbus, Middle East, example milestones A300 A300 Iranair Iranair ‘80 ‘80 A320 ‘92 A300 A320 ‘92 A300 A310/A300 ’93/’94 Egyptair A310/A300 ’93/’94 Egyptair Kuwait Airways A320 ’09 ‘80 Kuwait Airways A320 ’09 ‘80 Saudi Arabian Saudi Arabian A300 A300 Saudi Arabian A330 ’99 A380 ’08 Saudi Arabian A330 ’99 A321 ’03 A380 ’08 ‘84 Emirates A321 ’03 Emirates ‘84 Emirates MEA Emirates MEA A300 A340-600 ’06 A330 ’09 A300 A340-600 ’06 A330 ’09 PIA A320 ‘91 Qatar Airways Oman Air PIA A320 ‘91 Qatar Airways Oman Air ‘80 Egyptair A340 ‘94 ‘80 Egyptair A340 ‘94 Gulf Air A310 Gulf Air A310 A340-600 ’06 Kuwait Airways A340-600 ’06 Kuwait Airways A320 ‘92 Etihad ‘83 A320 ‘92 Etihad ‘83 Gulf Air Gulf Air A320 ‘90 A320 ‘90 Royal Jordanian Airbus Office Airbus Middle East Royal Jordanian Airbus Office Airbus Middle East Dubai Dubai Dubai Dubai ‘00 ‘06 ‘00 ‘06 8989 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 Source data: AIRBUS © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 4 Middle East, a natural crossroads Historical desire to link cities Middle East a natural crossroads Aviation became a natural means to provide link Technology and aircraft development provide progressively more capable and efficient means of providing the links © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 5 The Middle East is important for Airbus Middle East is important. Chart shows gross orders, deliveries, aircraft in operation. 10000 9338 9000 8000 7000 5858 6000 5592 Middle East 5000 World 4000 3000 2000 869 1000 253 361 0 Deliveries In Operation Orders SOURCE: AIRBUS, ORDERS AND DELIVERIES 30 SEP 2009 © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 6 The Middle East is important for Airbus In percentage terms, the importance is clearer. Middle East traffic typically accounts for around 5% of World traffic. 10% 9.3% 9% 8% 7% 6.5% 6% 5% 4.3% 4% 3% Middle East as % of world total 2% 1% 0% Deliveries In Operation Orders SOURCE: AIRBUS, ORDERS AND DELIVERIES 30 SEP 2009 © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 7 GMF 2009 – The Middle East, change has been rapid 1976 2006 Source: NASA © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 8 Middle East, traffic growth Middle East traffic growth has seen a steady rise in recent years. In 2009, in contrast to other regions, Middle East traffic has shown growth. But we must watch through remainder of 2009 and 2010. 300,000,000 250,000,000 ) Airbus observed trend An approximate annual traffic growth rate of 12% p.a. 200,000,000 150,000,000 Source: ICAO data / Airbus 100,000,000 Middle East traffic, domestic, international passenger-km performed (thousands performed passenger-km 50,000,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 9 Market share 1998-2008, MENA region 100% Airbus Boeing 90% 80% 70% Average 60% Approx 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Airbus orders and deliveries, www.boeing.com Airbus has enjoyed a majority share of the MENA aircraft orders over the past few years © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 10 Aircraft sold in the MENA region 1998-2008 722 aircraft in 400 2 years Boeing 350 Airbus 300 250 200 150 100 290 aircraft in 9 years 50 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Airbus orders and deliveries, www.boeing.com Sales over the last two years have easily outstripped the past 9 years © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 11 What has driven recent demand in the MENA region? 400 Boeing 350 Airbus 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Airbus orders and deliveries, www.boeing.com The ‘Big 3’ Gulf carriers – 272 aircraft ordered for fleet expansion Dubai Aerospace with 200 orders – not all aircraft will necessarily go into the region Recent start ups – Air Arabia, Jazeera, nasair, Fly Dubai with 144 orders between them Altogether these accounted for 616 orders of the 722 orders – 85% © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 12 What has driven recent demand in the MENA region? Recent re-fleeting 400 There has been quite a lot of re-fleeting also Boeing 350 Airbus occurring within the region 300 250 Saudi Arabian, Royal Jordanian, Middle East 200 150 Airlines, Tunis Air, Air Algerie, Egyptair, Gulf 100 Air, Oman Air, Yemenia, Royal Air Maroc, 50 Ethiopian Airlines, Libyan Airlines 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Airbus orders and deliveries, www.boeing.com But there is still a requirement for further replacements, in addition to future expansion © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 13 Location A320 Family range 36% of world population © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 14 Location, location A320 Family A330-300 range range 36% of world population 86% of world population © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 15 Location, location, location A320 Family A330-300 range range A380 range 36% of world population 86% of world population 98% of population Hub development (Emirates, Qatar, ETIHAD) LCCs (Air Arabia, Jazeera, NAS, Air Blue, Nouvelair…) © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 16 A320 Family, the Airlines’ choice in the region Nile Air AA BacklogBacklog ofof almostalmost 280280 NearlyNearly 130130 a/ca/c inin operationoperation © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 17 Middle East & Africa airline backlog, A330 A330-300 In-service + Backlog range Emirates 29 Qatar 29 ETIHAD 16 + 8 Gulf Air 10 + 20 Egypt Air 7 + 5 Air Algerie 5 MEA 4 Afriqiyah 1 + 2 Air Mauritius 1 + 1 Yemenia 1 Saudia 8 86% of world Oman 5 population Libyan 4 Tunis Air 3 Total 103 + 56 A330-200 for route development A330-300 for lowest seat-costs Data end August 2009 © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 18 TheThe futurefuture hashas arrivedarrived 12 A380 12 A380 5 A380 58 A380 10 A380 10 A380 4 a/c 1 A380 5 A380 200 10 A380 Firm Orders 15 A380 from 16 Customers 6 A380 5 A380 All 3 alliances 20 A380 represented 19 A380 6 A380 6 A380 A350 XWB - 493 orders, 31 customers 24 Countries – 3 Alliances – 5 Leasing companies Synergy Aerospace End September 09 © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 20 Economists believe recession has bottomed out Real GDP year-over-year quarterly evolution (%) World USA Western Europe 10% Japan Other adv economies Emerging economies 8% 6% We are 4% here 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% 1 1 1 3 3 3 Q Q3 Q Q3 Q Q Q1 Q Q1 Q3 Q1 Q 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Strong growth Slowdown Deep crisis Recovery Complete since 2004 recovery Source: Global Insight (August 2009), Airbus © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 21 Middle East, literally at the centre of the world 8000 nm 4500 nm 2500 nm 36% world population 16% world GDP 86% world population 63% world GDP © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 22 2009 traffic to/from Middle East well above 2000 levels: 172% overall ASK growth on seven main regional flows Passenger - ASKs - 2009 vs. 2000 Europe North America +123 % CIS +1270 % +137 % +100 % Africa Asia/Pacific +212 % +182 % South Africa +645 % Source: September ASK traffic from OAG © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 23 Hubs in the region continue their impressive growth 4.5 4 3.5 3 +234% growth in less than 10 years 2.5 2 1.5 Monthly passengers (Millions) 1 0.5 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 DXB & AUH Source: 4D, Airbus © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 24 Demographics favour Middle Eastern aviation growth Population by age, years, % of total, 2010 forecast ARAB WORLD EUROPE 25 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 80+ 70-79 60-69 50-59 40-49 30-39 20-29 10-19 0-9 Source: UN Population Division © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 25 Middle East will sustain very strong traffic growth RPK growth: annual average 2009-2018 CIS 6.0% Europe North America 5.7% 8.2% 5.2% Asia-Pacific Africa Latin America 6.1% 7.9% 8.7% Middle East World 20-year 20-year 2009-2018 2019-2028 2009-2018 2019-2028 growth growth 6.4% 5.4% 5.9% 4.6% 4.8% 4.7% © AIRBUS S.A.S.
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