Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

Final | 13 June 2018

This report takes into account the particular instructions and requirements of our client. It is not intended for and should not be relied upon by any third party and no responsibility is undertaken to any third party.

Job number 245418-00

Ove Arup & Partners Ltd 13 Fitzroy Street London W1T 4BQ United Kingdom www.arup.com

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Job title Kingston Transport Study Job number 245418-00 Document title Model Forecasting Report File reference

Document ref Revision Date Filename 2018 -01-17_KG_MFR_v01.docx Draft 1 1 7 Jan Description First draft 2018 Prepared by Checked by Approved by Edward Dawes Leon Name Tom Spencer Simon Camm Shrewsbury Rob Henley Signature Draft 2 23 Mar Filename 2018 -03-23_Kingston_MFR_v02.docx 2018 Description Second draft - addresses comments issued by TfL (31/01/2018) and includes mitigation chapters.

Prepared by Checked by Approved by Leon Name Edward Dawes Simon Camm Shrewsbury Signature

Final Issue 22 May Filename 2018 -05-22_Kingston_MFR_v03.docx 2018 Description Final Issue – addresses comments received from both TfL (16- 04-2018) and RBK (23-04-2018)

Prepared by Checked by Approved by Leon Name Edward Dawes Simon Camm Shrewsbury Signature

Rev ised 13 June Filename 2018 -06-13_Kingston_MFR_v04.docx Final Issue 2018 Description Final Issue – addresses comments received from RBK (29-05- 2018)

Prepared by Checked by Approved by Leon Name Edward Dawes Simon Camm Shrewsbury Signature

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

Contents

Page

Glossary

Executive summary 1

1 Introduction 9 1.1 Background to study 9 1.2 Context 9 1.3 Forecasting Scenarios 10 1.4 Crossrail 2 10

2 Growth in Travel Demand 11 2.1 Approach and sources of information 11 2.2 Population, Households & Employment 11 2.3 Review of LTS outputs 19

3 Model Development - Networks 22 3.1 Highways 22 3.2 Public Transport 23

4 Model Outcomes/Results 25 4.1 Base year to 2041 Reference Case 25 4.2 2041 Reference Case to 2041 Medium Growth 38 4.3 2041 Medium Growth to 2041 Medium Growth with Crossrail 2 47

5 Summary of Challenges Identified 59 5.1 Highway 59 5.2 Public Transport 60

6 Mitigation Measures 62 6.1 Package 1 65 6.2 Package 2 77

7 Conclusion 95

Appendix

Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

Tables

Table 1: Household and employment growth assumptions for 2041 scenarios 2 Table 2: Household growth assumptions in the 2041 Reference Case 11 Table 3: Household growth assumptions in the 2041 Medium OA Growth 12 Table 4: Employment growth assumptions in the 2041 Reference Case 12 Table 5: Employment growth assumptions in the 2041 Medium OA Growth 13 Table 6: LTS modal split assumptions 21 Table 7: Summary of highway model changes 22 Table 8: Summary of supplied schemes in Railplan 23 Table 9: Station entries and exits – base year to 2041 reference case (AM peak period) 33 Table 10: Station entries and exits - 2041 reference case to 2041 medium OA growth (AM peak period) 46 Table 11: Station entries and exits – 2041 Medium OA growth with and without CR2 (AM peak period) 56 Table 12: Potential intervention schemes 62 Table 13: Agreed mitigation packages for testing 65

Figures

Figure 1: Growth in households – base year to 2041 reference case 15 Figure 2: Growth in households – base year to 2041 medium OA growth 16 Figure 3: Growth in employment – base year to 2041 reference case 17 Figure 4: Growth in employment – base year to 2041 medium OA growth 18 Figure 5: Change in traffic flows - base year to 2041 reference case (AM peak) 27 Figure 6: Change in junction delays - base year to 2041 reference case (AM peak) 28 Figure 7: Change in junction stress - base year to 2041 reference case (AM peak) 29 Figure 8: Change in rail passenger volumes - base year 2041 reference case (AM peak period) 31 Figure 9: Change in bus passenger volumes - base year to 2041 reference case (AM peak period) 32 Figure 10: Four PPMS crowding level 34 Figure 11: Seven PPMS crowding level 34 Figure 12: Crowding on rail - base year (AM peak) 36 Figure 13: Crowding on rail - 2041 reference case (AM peak) 37 Figure 14: Change in traffic flows - 2041 reference case to 2041 medium OA growth (AM peak) 40 Figure 15: Change in junction delay - 2041 reference case to 2041 medium OA growth (AM peak) 41 Figure 16: Change in junction stress - 2041 reference case to 2041 medium OA growth (AM peak) 42 Figure 17: Change in rail passenger volumes - 2041 reference case to 2041 medium OA growth (AM peak period) 44

Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

Figure 18: Change in bus passenger volumes - 2041 reference case to 2041 medium OA growth (AM peak period) 45 Figure 19: Change in highway traffic flows – 2041 Medium OA with and without CR2 (AM peak) 49 Figure 20: Change in highway junction delay – 2041 Medium OA with and without CR2 (AM peak) 50 Figure 21: Change in highway junction stress - 2041 Medium OA with and without CR2 (AM peak) 51 Figure 22: Change in rail passenger volumes - 2041 Medium OA with and without CR2 (AM peak period) 54 Figure 23: Change in bus passenger volumes – 2041 Medium OA with and without CR2 (AM peak period) 55 Figure 24: Crowding on rail - 2041 Medium OA with and without CR2 (AM peak) 58 Figure 25: Change in traffic flows with package 1 (KTC) (AM peak) 68 Figure 26: Change in traffic flows with package 1 (Tolworth) (AM peak) 69 Figure 27: Traffic flows with package 1 (using new Hook link) (AM peak) 70 Figure 28: Change in junction delays with package 1 (KTC) (AM peak) 73 Figure 29: Change in junction delays with package 1 (Tolworth) (AM peak) 74 Figure 30: Change in junction stress with package 1 (KTC) (AM peak) 75 Figure 31: Change in junction stress with package 1 (Tolworth) (AM peak) 76 Figure 32: Change in traffic flows with package 2 (KTC) (AM peak) 79 Figure 33: Change in traffic flows with package 2 (Tolworth) (AM peak) 80 Figure 34: Change in traffic flows package 1 - package 2 (KTC) (AM peak) 81 Figure 35: Change in traffic flows package 1 - package 2 (Tolworth) (AM peak)82 Figure 36: Traffic flows with package 2 (using new Hook link) (AM peak) 83 Figure 37: Change in junction delay with package 2 (KTC) (AM peak) 87 Figure 38: Change in junction delay with package 2 (Tolworth) (AM peak) 88 Figure 39: Change in junction delay package 1 to package 2 (KTC) (AM peak) 89 Figure 40: Change in junction delay package 1 to package 2 (Tolworth) (AM peak) 90 Figure 41: Change in junction stress with package 2 (KTC) (AM peak) 91 Figure 42: Change in junction stress with package 2 (Tolworth) (AM peak) 92 Figure 43: Change in junction stress package 1 to package 2 (KTC) (AM peak) 93 Figure 44: Change in junction stress package 1 to package 2 (Tolworth) (AM peak) 94 Figure 45: Change in highway trips base year to 2041 ref case A1 Figure 46: Change in highway trip origins base to 2041 ref case (GLA) A2 Figure 47: Change in highway trip destinations base to 2041 ref case (GLA) A3 Figure 48: Change in highway trips 2041 ref to 2041 med OA A4 Figure 49: Change in highway trip origins 2041 ref case med OA (GLA) A5 Figure 50: Change in highway trip dests 2041 ref case to med OA (GLA) A6 Figure 51: Change in public transport trips base to 2041 ref case A7 Figure 52: Change in public transport trip origins base to 2041 ref case (GLA) A8

Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

Figure 53: Change in public transport dest trips base to 2041 ref case (GLA) A9 Figure 54: Change in public transport trips 2041 ref case to 2041 med OA A10 Figure 55: Change in public transport trip origins 2041 ref to med OA (GLA) A11 Figure 56: Change in public transport trips dest 2041 ref to med OA (GLA) A12 Figure 57: Kingston Town Centre Scheme Model Layout A13 Figure 58: Tolworth T2 Scheme Model Layout A14 Figure 59: Hook H1 Scheme Model Layout A15

Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

Glossary

CR2 - Crossrail 2 Crossrail 2 is a proposed rail route in South East England, running from nine stations in Surrey to three in Hertfordshire providing a new North-South rail link across London. GLA - Greater London Area Greater London is a region of England which forms the administrative boundaries of London, as well as a county for the purposes of the lieutenancies. It is organised into 33 local government districts: the 32 London boroughs and the City of London. KingHAM - Kingston Highways Assignment Model (Bespoke) See LoHAM. A bespoke highway assignment model produced for Kingston. KTC - Kingston Town Centre LoHAM - London Highway Assignment Model There are five sub-regional SATURN based highway assignment models available in London. This is the London-wide highway assignment model. The HAMs can be used for quantifying the impact of demand changes on the highway network in the future, assessing large highway infrastructure schemes and assessing policy changes which are likely to have an impact on the highway network. LTS - London Transportation Studies Model LTS is a strategic multi-modal four stage aggregate model for London and its surrounding area. It is used to prepare forecasts of growth in total travel, change in travel patterns, the transport mode chosen and the routing of trips through the road and public transport networks. MTS - Mayor’s Transport Strategy OA - Opportunity Area Opportunity Areas are London’s major source of brownfield land which have significant capacity for development – such as housing or commercial use - and existing or potentially improved public transport access. PCUs - Passenger Car Units PCU is a metric used in Transportation Engineering to assess traffic-flow rate on a highway. A passenger car equivalent is essentially the impact that a mode of transport has on traffic variables (such as headway, speed, density) compared to a single car. PPMS - people standing per square metre of available standing space PPMS is used as a measure of crowding on public transport services

Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

RBK - Royal Borough of Kingston Upon Thames RP - Railplan Model Railplan is a public transport assignment model for London and its surrounding area. It can be used for assessing the impacts of major public transport schemes throughout London, assessing policy changes, to assess the effects of major developments on public transport and for station modelling. SLA - Select Link Analysis Strategic analysis depicting origins and destinations for traffic using a specified link in the network SWML - South West Main Line TfL - Transport for London TL – Tolworth V/C – Volume over capacity A measure of stress on the highway network (volume divided by capacity)

Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

Executive Summary

Context In January 2015, Transport for London (TfL) invited proposals for a consultant team to undertake strategic assignment modelling to support the Kingston Transport Study, to help deliver the Local Plan for Kingston. Following the submission of proposals, TfL appointed Arup to undertake this work.

Growth and forecast scenarios The South London Sub-region, in which Kingston is located, will see a substantial increase in population and employment over the next 20-year period. The Greater London Authority, TfL and the Royal Borough of Kingston (RBK) have proposed to produce a Local Plan for Kingston and have identified the potential for an additional 15,000 new homes and 30,000 new jobs in the borough by 2041, over and above the current London Plan1. To undertake the analysis for this study, assumptions have been made relating to the location and quantum of these developments. Whilst it is unlikely that individual sites will be developed exactly as modelled, this gives a reasonable indication of likely development. A combination of these employment and population forecasts, allied to wider growth within Greater London, has the potential to result in substantial pressure on certain areas of the transport network. The objective of the commission was to assemble the empirical evidence base to support the study through robust strategic modelling by identifying the impacts of the proposed developments on the highway and public transport networks. The study developed a 2011 base year transport model that was signed off by TfL. Following this, future year scenarios were developed covering different levels of growth in population and employment up to 2041, plus a view on which transport schemes to include for that year. These included major committed schemes forming TfL’s future reference case together with local schemes identified by RBK. These included the Go Cycle schemes; a network of cycle routes and cycle improvement schemes across the borough designed to encourage mode shift from car to more sustainable modes. The scenarios tested were: • 2041 Reference Case – No additional growth associated within Kingston over and above the committed current London Plan growth, which represents increases of around 13,000 new homes and 5,000 new jobs in the borough by 2041. Details of those transport schemes likely to be in place by 2041 (committed schemes) were provided by TfL and refined by RBK; • 2041 Medium growth without Crossrail 2 network – This includes the reference case (Greater London Area - GLA) growth plus an additional level of growth identified by RBK of an additional 15,000 homes and

1 The current 2016 London Plan, as opposed to the December 2017 Draft New London Plan

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

30,000 new jobs in the borough by 2041. However, the transport network does not include the proposed Crossrail 2 scheme (CR2); and • 2041 Medium growth plus Crossrail 2 network – This is the same as the medium growth scenario above but with the inclusion of Crossrail 2.

Population and employment growth Using TfL’s transport modelling suite2, the change in several transport metrics between the base year and 2041 was assessed for the 3 forecast scenarios described previously. Growth across London is based on London Plan levels of housing and employment from the current 2016 London Plan; outside London, growth is based on the Department for Transport (DfT) TEMPro3 forecasts. The growth in households and employment on a borough-wide basis is tabulated below (rounded to the nearest thousand), noting that there is no difference in households and employment between the medium growth with and without Crossrail 2 scenarios. Table 1: Household and employment growth assumptions for 2041 scenarios Households Employment 2011 73,000 72,000 2041 Ref Case 86,000 78,000 % Growth 18% 1% 2041 Medium Growth 101,000 107,000 % Growth 35% 39%

For each scenario, there are wide variations throughout the borough: • The largest growth in the number of households in the reference case is focused around Kingston Centre (181%) and Norbiton (51%), with substantial growth in Tolworth & Berrylands and Chessington North; • In the medium growth scenario, household growth is spread more evenly across the borough. Kingston Centre (277%) and Norbiton (106%) still represent the largest increases in households but there are large absolute changes in New Malden, Tolworth & Berrylands and Chessington as well; • Growth in employment in the 2041 reference case scenario is focused around Chessington North with an increase of 34%, with increases in Kingston Centre (9%) and New Malden (23%). Elsewhere in the borough changes are minimal or decrease slightly; and • For the Medium growth scenario, largest employment increases are found in Kingston Centre, Norbiton, Kingston North, and Chessington South. The impacts of population and employment growth on network performance for each of these scenarios is set out below. Highway network performance has been

2 The Multi-modal London Transportation Study (LTS) model, KingHAM highway assignment model, and Railplan public transport assignment model 3 Trip End Model Presentation Program

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

assessed for the 08:00-09:00 peak hour and public transport for the peak period 07:00-10:004.

2041 reference case

Highways Significant traffic growth is forecast on the strategic road network, primarily focused around the A3 westbound corridor between the junction with Coombe Lane, Tolworth junction, Hook junction and beyond. Traffic flows also increase on the A3 eastbound between Tolworth and Coombe Lane. In general terms, the increases in traffic on the strategic road network, will result in additional congestion and consequential re-routeing of traffic onto local roads. Minor flow reductions are forecast on other strategic routes including the A240 Surbiton Road and the A307 Richmond Road within Kingston town centre; this could be attributed to road capacity reductions resulting from the proposed Go Cycle schemes within Kingston town centre. Traffic delays during the peak hours across the borough are forecast to increase by 2041 largely due to increased traffic levels and the removal of road capacity. The Go Cycle schemes, whilst encouraging reduced car usage, do result in a reduction in road capacity resulting from the reallocation of road space. Most of the forecast increase in junction delays within the borough are focused around the town centre and on the A3 around Hook, which also have the greatest concentration of employment and household growth in comparison to the base year. There are also significant delays forecast on strategic routes south of the A3 towards Ewell, Cheam and West Sutton.

Public Transport Passenger flows on the South West Main Line (SWML) in the inbound direction are forecast to increase substantially between the base year and 2041 between Surbiton and Wimbledon. Flows are also forecast to increase substantially in the outbound direction, although most of these trips have destinations external to the borough. Modest passenger increases are expected on the Kingston loop line through Kingston, Norbiton and New Malden for both directions of travel, and on the branch to Epsom via Motspur Park (both directions) between Wimbledon and Worcester Park. Increases in passenger flows result in consequential increases in crowding. Crowding is generally measured as passengers per metre² (PPMS), with the higher the number the more crowded the train. Crowding levels that exceed 4 PPMS are considered very crowded and likely to lead to operational knock-on impacts in terms of increased boarding times at stations. Crowding on the SWML between destinations outside the study area and Clapham Junction increases over the 30-year period from an average of 2-3 PPMS in 2011

4 These time periods reflect the periods covered in TfL’s models

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

to an average of 4-5 PPMS in 2041. In the same period, there is little impact to crowding on services through Kingston-Norbiton. The branches from Epsom via Motspur Park, and Worcester Park to Raynes Park and Wimbledon are also overcrowded in the 2041 reference case scenario, although they do not materially worsen over the 30-year period.

2041 Medium growth without Crossrail 2

Highways The additional growth in homes and jobs associated with the medium growth scenario is forecast to have a marginal impact on traffic flows, with most of the substantial pressures on the network occurring due to growth between the base year and the 2041 reference case. Those roads that experience traffic increases are predominantly focused around areas east of Kingston town centre in Norbiton and New Malden, reflecting the location of additional employment and households. Despite the relatively small traffic increases, the fact that the network is already very congested has a disproportionate impact on delays, particularly within Kingston town centre and along the A3 within the vicinity of most of the additional homes and jobs.

Public Transport There are relatively minor changes to public transport demand with much of the increase on rail in the counter-peak direction. This is likely to be driven by a forecast increase in local employment opportunities within the borough. Passenger flows increase modestly between Raynes Park and Norbiton, as does flows between Kingston and Norbiton. The change in demand beyond Kingston station is low, suggesting that most of the demand increases are driven by travel to and from Kingston rather than through trips. Due to the small flow changes, the additional demand on the network between the 2041 reference case and medium growth scenario is not forecast to exacerbate crowding conditions. The results highlight that most of the network constraints and crowding on rail arise due to the passenger growth forecast between the 2011 base year and 2041 reference case.

2041 Medium growth with Crossrail 2

Highways As the highway demand does not change between the medium growth with and without Crossrail 2, there is a negligible impact on highway flows or delays with this scenario.

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

Public Transport The addition of Crossrail 2 is forecast to have a substantial impact on rail passenger demand on the network in 2041 due to significant increase in rail service frequency and capacity. Flows towards central London from Kingston via Norbiton increase significantly, and even more so between New Malden and Wimbledon where the branches from Chessington, Epsom and Hampton Court merge. Although demand increases are generally higher towards London, flows in the outbound direction towards the borough also increase substantially (e.g. New Malden to Kingston). These flow increases manifest themselves as large increases in station entries and exits across the borough. With Crossrail 2, station entries at Kingston increase by 70% and exits by 155%; for Norbiton, station exits increase by 108% resulting from increased employment opportunities and better access facilitated by Crossrail 2. Despite the significant flow increases, Crossrail 2 is forecast to have a significant impact on alleviating crowding on the network in and around Kingston. Crowding on the SWML through Surbiton, Berrylands, New Malden and Raynes Park decreases by 2 PPMS with Crossrail 2, and by the same level for the Epsom branch via Worcester Park and Raynes Park.

Mitigation Scenarios Following analysis of the network stresses on both the highways and public transport networks, and a few workshops attended by TfL, RBK and Arup; two mitigation packages were developed comprising of transport schemes with and without a demand management scenario. These can be summarised as:

Package 1 schemes: • Kingston Town Centre – This was modified to include a 2-way bus lane through Clarence Street, and the conversion of one-way working on the existing gyratory to 2-way working; • TfL Tolworth Roundabout Scheme (T2 Scheme) – A dedicated lane for the heavy left turn from Kingston Road to the A3, extended the greenway along Kingston Road, and included a package of small scale traffic efficiency measures, urban realm and greening measures; • TfL Hook Roundabout Scheme (H1 Scheme) – Comprised of a new link at Hook Road Roundabout to link to the A3 southbound; and • Bus Service Improvements – which included a 10% frequency increase across the borough, re-routing associated with the town centre scheme, and a new Clarence Street 2-way bus link.

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

Package 2 schemes (as Package 1, but to include): • An ambitious pan London policy to reduce car mode share incorporating TfL’s healthy streets agenda, substantial spending on public transport infrastructure including Crossrail 2, and travel demand management. This could include measures such as road user charging, a more sustainable freight policy, a work place parking levy, and road space re-allocation; and • Crossrail 2. The results for each package are set out below.

Package 1 analysis: The forecast traffic flow changes can be summarised as: • Large increases on the new anticlockwise section of the current gyratory; • Some flow increases north of the town centre and across Kingston bridge; • Local re-routeing on Kings Road/Richmond Park Road, Elm Road and Park Road linking to the A308 due to reduced capacity on the A307; and • Traffic routeing through Seven Kings Way instead of the now busier A307 and A308. At the Tolworth and Hook junctions, the combined impacts of the 2 schemes can be summarised as: • Modest increases on the proposed Hook H1 slip road and A3 southbound to the south of this; • Flows on the A309 eastbound Kingston bypass approaching Hook increase with the new opportunity to join the A3 southbound at Hook; • Increases in clockwise circulating flows at Hook roundabout but no significant delay increases; • Reduced A3 eastbound flows between Hook and Tolworth junctions, and a reduction in circulating flows at Tolworth roundabout due to the need for this “U-turn” movement now removed; • The Tolworth scheme results in flow increase on the A240 Tolworth Road northbound towards the roundabout, however, lower circulating flows resulting from the Hook H1 scheme mitigate this; and • Minor reductions on local roads (e.g. Jubilee Way/Cox Lane) between the A240 and A243 Hook Road. In terms of delays, the town centre gyratory scheme to allow bi-directional running has a negative impact on several junctions. Average delay per vehicle is forecast to increase by more than 90 seconds at the following junctions: • A307 (Fairfield North) and A308 (London Road);

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

• A308 (London Road) and Albert Road; • A308 (Sopwith Way) and A307 (Richmond Road) north of Kingston station; and • A307/A308 Wheatfield Way. The Clarence Street bus lane leads to a reduction in bus journey times (with reduced junction delay) for buses re-routing onto the north-south Clarence Street and across Kingston. Although journey distances for other highway vehicles that would have previously used Clarence Street northbound increase, journey times decrease due to multiple junction delay reductions. Junction delays increase significantly at access points onto the old gyratory.

Package 2 analysis: The demand management measures are forecast to result in large decreases in traffic flows across the borough with key observations being: • Decrease in flows on the A3 (southbound) between New Malden (junction with the B282) and Tolworth, as well as in both directions between New Malden and Kingston Vale; • Decrease in eastbound flows on the A308 (Hampton Court Road) across Hampton Court Park, Ditton Hill, and Sugden; and • Decrease on southbound A310 (Kingston Road) towards Kingston Town Centre and across Kingston bridge. Other noted increases are: • Hook Road (northbound) from Chessington North to Hook Roundabout; • Leatherhead Road between Chessington North and South stations; and • Kingston bypass between Hook junction and Hinchley Wood station. The model shows that within Kingston town centre, delays are likely to fall across all major junctions due to demand management and Crossrail 2, with the greatest reductions to junction delay (90+ seconds) forecast at Brook Street/Wheatfield Way, Albert Road/A308 London Road, and A308 Sopwith Way/A307 Richmond Road (near Kingston railway station). The model also shows minor improvements to junctions along the A3 including Coombe Lane West and Malden Road (near Motspur Park railway station). Around the Tolworth and Hook Junctions, decreases in delays are concentrated around Hook (including both off ramps approaching Hook roundabout). Benefits also extend to junctions along Hook Road (A243) towards Chessington North and South Stations and the junction with Bridge Road. At Tolworth, including the on/off ramps to the A3 southbound, there are forecast to be significant improvements to delay with demand management in place for the link between Tolworth Roundabout and the A3 southbound, and the A240 Kingston Road that connects to Tolworth junction.

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

Conclusion Based on London-plan based growth in employment and jobs, there are forecast to be significant stresses on both the highway and public transport networks by 2041 with increases in traffic flows and consequential significant increases in traffic delays. Although the assessment of traffic conditions includes transport schemes likely to be in place by 2041, a number of these schemes within the borough relate to the Go Cycle programme. Whilst these schemes improve conditions for cyclists, and should help facilitate a shift to more sustainable modes, they do result in a reduction in road capacity resulting from the reallocation of road space. Crowding on rail services through the borough is forecast to worsen considerably by 2041, particularly on the SWML services through Surbiton. Although Crossrail 2 is in the very early stages of planning and no decision to build it has been made, it is expected that permission to build the line will be sought in the early 2020’s, followed by construction and potential opening by the 2030’s. As well as generating new travel opportunities with consequential benefits to mode choice and increased public transport patronage, Crossrail 2 will offer substantial relief to the expected train crowding and will largely mitigate against the forecast levels of train crowding, despite the increase in passengers. A number of packages for highway schemes have been assessed and could help to mitigate traffic conditions in the borough. The conversion of the existing one-way gyratory to two-way operation, along with sustainable transport options including a bus-only operation along Clarence Street, could significantly improve the nature of the town centre. Results have shown that the impacts are relatively local but do include increases in delay at several junctions. If this scheme is to be progressed, further work will be required on developing detailed designs, combined with detailed micro-simulation modelling to ensure that the scheme is viable. However, none of the highway schemes assessed will lead to a shift away from car-based travel or effect a switch to more sustainable modes. This will require a much more radical approach. To this end, a demand management scenario was tested, based on an ambitious pan-London policy to reduce car mode share that incorporated TfL’s healthy streets agenda, substantial spending on public transport infrastructure (including Crossrail 2), and travel demand management. This could include measures such as: road user charging; a more sustainable freight policy; and a work place parking levy and road space re-allocation. Further work needs to be undertaken on the exact nature of what demand management should comprise of, and how it could be implemented across the GLA, and the modelled forecasts indicate that this is probably the only realistic way of reducing the reliance on car-based travel within and through the borough.

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

1 Introduction

1.1 Background to study Arup were appointed by Transport for London (TfL) in January 2015 to undertake strategic assignment modelling to support the Kingston Transport Study and help deliver the Local Plan for the Royal Borough of Kingston upon Thames (RBK).

1.2 Context Kingston is situated within the South London Sub-region, an area that will see a substantial increase in population and employment over the next 20-year period. The Greater London Authority, TfL and RBK have proposed to produce a Local Plan for Kingston, identifying the potential for a further 15,000 new homes and 30,000 new jobs in the borough by 2041. A combination of these employment and population forecasts, allied to wider growth within Greater London has the potential to result in substantial pressure on certain areas of the transport network. The objective of the commission is to assemble the empirical evidence base to support the Transport Study through robust strategic assignment modelling by identifying the impacts of the proposed developments on the highway and public transport networks. This commission is therefore to provide the strategic modelling that will support the transport study, rather than the transport study itself. This report documents the assumptions and identifies the potential impacts of the proposed growth on the highway and public transport networks. This model forecasting report represents the final main deliverable for this study. Both KingHAM5 and Railplan-CUBE6 local model validation reports were submitted to TfL on 7th July 2017, with other issue dates shown below. • Inception report • Local Model Validation Report(s) Railplan & KingHAM • Forecasting workshop slide pack (14 November 2017) • Mitigation workshop slide pack (29 November 2017) • Mitigation results slide pack (22 December 2017, reissued 10 January 2018) • Final Forecasting Report including Mitigation testing (this report)

5 Production version 3 of TfL’s London Highway Assignment Model (LoHAM) has been adopted for this study. TfL has produced, using their HAMoC tool, a beskpoke Kingston-centric version of for use in this study. The KingHAM model has a 2012 base year and represents the AM peak hour (08:00 – 09:00). It considers the routeing of vehicles and congestion on the road network. 6 Railplan is a strategic public transport model for London and the southeast, which models the most likely travel patterns and choices of individual users and outputs the resulting levels of passenger volumes and crowding on the network.

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

1.3 Forecasting Scenarios This study has developed three forecasting scenarios that cover different demand and network conditions for the 2041 forecast year: • 2041 Reference Case (No OA growth) – No additional growth associated with the Kingston Opportunity Area (OA). Growth and employment changes come from wider GLA forecasts. These represent a growth of ~13,000 new homes and ~5,000 new jobs from 2011 base year levels; • 2041 Medium growth on a non-Crossrail 2 network – includes reference case (GLA) growth and an additional medium level growth forecast identified in accordance with RBK for an additional ~15,000 homes and ~30,000 new jobs within the OA by 2041. However, this network does not include proposed Crossrail 2 network/services; and • 2041 Medium growth on a with-Crossrail 2 network – includes reference case (GLA) growth and an additional medium level growth forecast identified in accordance with RBK for an additional ~15,000 homes and ~30,000 new jobs within the OA by 2041. This network includes the proposed Crossrail 2 scheme. Following analysis of the network stresses on both the highways and public transport networks, two mitigation scenarios were developed comprising a number of transport schemes with and without a demand management scenario. These mitigation scenarios are covered more fully in Section 6 of this report.

1.4 Crossrail 2 Crossrail 2 is a proposed rail route that will connect areas of South West London and Surrey to destinations in North East London and Hertfordshire, providing a new high frequency rail link in north/south tunnels through Central London. It will connect the SWML to the West Anglia Main Line, via Clapham Junction, Chelsea, Victoria, Tottenham Court Road, Euston St Pancras, Angel and Dalston. The new tunnel sections are proposed to begin from Wimbledon in the south and Tottenham Hale and Alexandra Palace in the north. The proposals are forecast to alleviate existing congestion and overcrowding on other routes including the SWML into London Waterloo and London Underground Northern and Victoria lines. Crossrail 2 will support 200,000 jobs, spur the development of 200,000 new homes across the region, and increase London’s rail capacity by 10%. The impact is expected to be felt across the wider South East and beyond. The borough of Kingston is well served by Crossrail 2, as it includes the replacement of existing suburban rail services out of London Waterloo. Branches to Shepperton, Hampton Court, Chessington South and Epsom all intersect the borough boundary. The Crossrail 2 branches in the South West converge into a single line at Raynes Park just outside the borough boundary to the North East.

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2 Growth in Travel Demand

2.1 Approach and sources of information TfL’s London Transportation Study (LTS) model was run by TfL to provide the overall estimate of future travel demand for public transport and highways using housing and employment forecasts with respect to the Kingston OA. For the GLA area, LTS assumes levels of housing and employment from the current 2016 London Plan; outside London, growth is based on the DfT TEMPro7 forecasts.

2.2 Population, Households & Employment RBK provided revised planning assumptions for the borough that replaced the original assumptions supplied in the TfL 2041 reference case. Forecasts of additional population and employment growth were also received from RBK to create a medium growth (opportunity area) demand scenario. The agreed projections by area (LTS zone) are summarised in Table 2 to Table 5 (rounded to the nearest ten) and Figure 1 to Figure 4. Table 2 to Table 5 shows the household and employment growth assumptions from 2011 for both the 2041 Reference Case and the 2041 Medium OA growth assumptions. Households were calculated by taking the population growth forecasts and assuming a standard 2.2 persons per household ratio, in line with other work undertaken for TfL. Table 2: Household growth assumptions in the 2041 Reference Case

Name 2011 2041 Ref Growth (abs) Growth (%) Case Kingston North 11,450 13,190 1,740 15% Kingston Centre 1,240 3,490 2,250 181% Norbiton 3,360 5,220 1,860 55% Berrylands 5,210 6,340 1,130 22% New Malden 7,120 7,960 840 12% Kingston Vale 2,730 2,770 40 1% Kingston South 5,680 6,670 990 17% Surbiton North 3,160 3,520 360 11% Surbiton 6,640 7,300 660 10% Tolworth & Berrylands 9,950 11,160 1,210 12% Old Malden 6,560 6,900 340 5% Chessington North 7,860 9,020 1,160 15% Chessington South 1,980 2,130 150 8% TOTAL 72,940 85,680 12,740 17%

7 Trip End Model Presentation Program

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Table 3: Household growth assumptions in the 2041 Medium OA Growth

Name 2011 2041 Med Growth (abs) Growth (%) OA Kingston North 11,450 13,870 2,420 21% Kingston Centre 1,240 4,690 3,450 278% Norbiton 3,360 6,910 3,550 106% Berrylands 5,210 8,020 2,810 54% New Malden 7,120 11,970 4,850 68% Kingston Vale 2,730 2,770 40 1% Kingston South 5,680 8,150 2,470 43% Surbiton North 3,160 3,520 360 11% Surbiton 6,640 7,490 850 13% Tolworth & Berrylands 9,950 13,130 3,180 32% Old Malden 6,560 7,100 540 8% Chessington North 7,860 10,750 2,890 37% Chessington South 1,980 2,780 800 40% TOTAL 72,940 101,130 28,190 39%

Table 4: Employment growth assumptions in the 2041 Reference Case

Name 2011 2041 Ref Growth (abs) Growth (%) Case Kingston North 9,440 9,930 490 5% Kingston Centre 15,600 16,940 1,340 9% Norbiton 3,300 3,420 120 4% Berrylands 4,610 4,280 -330 -7% New Malden 5,360 6,590 1,230 23% Kingston Vale 2,290 2,510 220 10% Kingston South 5,240 5,520 280 5% Surbiton North 3,690 3,970 280 8% Surbiton 3,420 3,520 100 3% Tolworth & Berrylands 7,000 6,250 -750 -11% Old Malden 2,640 2,760 120 5% Chessington North 6,680 8,930 2,250 34% Chessington South 3,190 3,160 -30 -1% TOTAL 72,450 77,780 5,330 7%

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Table 5: Employment growth assumptions in the 2041 Medium OA Growth

Name 2011 2041 Med Growth (abs) Growth (%) OA Kingston North 9,440 16,790 7,350 78% Kingston Centre 15,600 25,660 10,060 64% Norbiton 3,300 6,840 3,540 107% Berrylands 4,610 6,520 1,910 41% New Malden 5,360 9,030 3,670 68% Kingston Vale 2,290 2,510 220 10% Kingston South 5,240 4,780 -460 -9% Surbiton North 3,690 3,970 280 8% Surbiton 3,420 3,510 90 3% Tolworth & Berrylands 7,000 8,940 1,940 28% Old Malden 2,640 2,760 120 5% Chessington North 6,680 12,280 5,600 84% Chessington South 3,190 3,300 110 3% TOTAL 72,450 106,867 34,417 47%

Figure 1 to Figure 4 shows the location and concentration of growth in households and employment for both modelled demand scenarios, and present absolute and relative percentage changes. The distribution of the changes between the 2011 base and 2041 reference case and medium OA are presented, with the key observations being: • The largest growth in the number of households in the reference case is focused around Kingston Centre (181%) and Norbiton (51%). There is also substantial growth in Tolworth & Berrylands and Chessington North of around ~1,200 households although this represents a small relative change of 12-15%; • In the medium growth scenario, the household growth is spread more evenly across the borough. Kingston Centre (277%) and Norbiton (106%) still represent the largest increases in households but there are large absolute changes in New Malden of around ~5,000 new homes. There is also a large absolute increase in Tolworth & Berrylands and Chessington North of ~3,000 homes representing an increase of 32% and 37% on 2011 respectively; • Growth in employment in the 2041 reference case scenario is focused around Chessington North with an increase of 2,250 jobs on the 2011 base, representing an increase of 34%. There are also increases of ~1,300 in Kingston Centre (9%) and New Malden (23%). Elsewhere in the borough changes are minimal, while other areas such as Tolworth & Berrylands and Berrylands have seen decreases in employment of ~10%; and • In the 2041 Medium growth scenario, most of the decreases in employment in the reference case are offset by additional forecast growth for certain areas.

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The only area of the borough that continues to see a decrease in the number of jobs is the area to the south of Kingston town centre where jobs decrease by around ~500 (~9%). The largest increases in employment are found around Kingston Centre (~10,000 jobs), Norbiton and Kingston North. Growth in employment around Chessington North south of the A3 Tolworth and Hook junctions is forecast to see an employment increase of 84%.

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Figure 1: Growth in households – base year to 2041 reference case

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Figure 2: Growth in households – base year to 2041 medium OA growth

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Figure 3: Growth in employment – base year to 2041 reference case

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Figure 4: Growth in employment – base year to 2041 medium OA growth

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2.3 Review of LTS outputs The LTS outputs have been analysed and sense-checked to ensure that the trip- ends and mode share are in line with the growth assumption inputs outlined above. This section examines this process.

2.3.1 Trip-ends Figure 45 to Figure 50 in Appendix A shows the increase in highway trip-ends (origin and destination) for the morning peak hour (08:00 – 09:00). Trips have been mapped to the KingHAM zone structure, which has an increased definition (compared with LTS) within southwest London and around Kingston in order to improve model accuracy. Away from London, the highway trip zones become significantly more disaggregated. Figure 51 to Figure 56 in Appendix A shows the change in public transport trip-ends (origin and destination) for the morning peak period (07:00 – 10:00). Trips have been mapped to the Regional Railplan (RRP) zonal structure, which has a high level of definition within the Greater London Area, but significantly less definition for areas outside this area. Each growth scenario is compared on an incremental basis in terms of: • the growth between the 2011 base compared with the 2041 reference case; and • the growth between the 2041 reference case compared with the 2041 medium growth scenario. Trips are also presented for the Medium growth with Crossrail 2 scenario although it should be noted that the base demand between these scenarios do not change, just the distribution of trips and the resulting modal split between public transport, highway and active modes (see 2.3.2). The figures are presented at both the Kingston borough and the wider GLA level to compare trip-end growth and distribution across other outer London boroughs. Annotations have been included on the plots where necessary to provide a narrative on changes in the growth rates and distributions. Highways Between the 2011 base and the 2041 reference case there is a substantial decrease in highway origin trips across a large proportion of the Kingston borough; this decrease is typical of outer London boroughs. The wider GLA plot in Figure 46 shows similar changes in other outer London boroughs within the M25. Boroughs such as Enfield, Barnet and Ealing all have a similar magnitude and distribution of origin trip-end changes to Kingston borough. There are small increases in highway trips (0-100) in and around Kingston Centre and Tolworth & Berrylands. Larger increases in origin trips can be seen in and around Hinchley Wood, West Ewell and Banstead. There is a similar pattern for the highway destination trip-ends, although substantial changes are observed in and around Kingston Vale and New Malden to

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the north east of the borough. Chessington North, Tolworth and Hook show a slight increase in the number of highway trips over the same period. Hinchley Wood and Banstead continue to show substantial increases in trips ends for destinations although it should be noted that these are external to the Kingston borough boundary. Public Transport There are observed increases in public transport trip origins between 2011 and 2041 across the whole of the Kingston borough. The most substantial increase in public transport origin trips is within the north of the borough, particularly for zones neighbouring Kingston Centre, Norbiton, Surbiton and New Malden stations. Areas north of Kingston town centre also increased by ~250 to 500 origin trips. Destination trips also increased, but are primarily focused around Kingston Town Centre and Norbiton (~250). Plotting demand at the GLA level helps to indicate how the forecast increase in trips by public transport are distributed across the other London boroughs and areas immediately external to the GLA. Kingston is forecast to have a similar distribution of origin trip rates to neighbouring boroughs including Merton, Sutton, Croydon, Hounslow and Richmond, where the greatest trip rate growth is focused around major urban centres. For destination trips, Figure 53 highlights the increasing number of trips that are focused on destinations within the Central zone and Isle of Dogs. The highest growth in trip destinations are focused around Westminster, the City of London and more central areas of Camden and Islington. Tower Hamlets/Newham is also forecast to increase as a destination with trip growth focused heavily around employment areas in Canary Wharf (Isle of Dogs), Mile End/Bow and Stratford. In areas external to the GLA, the large zone size in the Railplan model will contribute towards the total absolute growth in trips. To compare against Kingston these should also be compared in relative growth terms. In the south west, analysis of relative growth forecasts highlights an increase in public transport origin trips in areas including Guildford and other parts of Surrey. These areas are likely to contribute to an increase in public transport through-demand within the Kingston borough. In the medium OA growth scenario, the majority of additional public transport trips are allocated to the borough of Kingston due to the extra growth on top of the 2041 reference case assumptions, although the 2011 to 2041 growth is considerably greater. The largest increases in trip origins are focused around Kingston Centre, New Malden and Tolworth where a significant increase in additional housing and employment is forecast (see employment/household plots from LTS). The same pattern can be observed for PT destinations, although these are more concentrated on areas where a greater concentration of job growth is committed, such as areas between Tolworth and Chessington, Kingston North and New Malden. There is more of a build-up in destination trips in areas to the north of Kingston town centre. The GLA level analysis indicates that additional trips (both origin and destination) within the GLA area are committed to Kingston borough. The shaded zones external to the GLA are likely flagged due to larger zone sizes, although the relative changes in trips in these zones will contribute to a very small proportion

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of total trips from that zone. The largest relative changes are specific to the Kingston borough between these demand scenarios.

2.3.2 Mode share assumptions The outputs from the LTS model show a changing pattern of mode share between the 2011 base and the 2041 forecasting scenarios. Table 6 shows the modal splits for the additional trips that are added to the network for the 2041 medium OA growth scenario. For the medium OA growth scenario, approximately 73,000 additional trips are added to the network; however, the percentage of these additional trips allocated to each mode differs between each network scenario. It is important to note that the growth in total trips (i.e. demand) in the forecast remains the same for the “with” and “without” Crossrail 2 scenarios. For the medium OA growth scenario without Crossrail 2, 33% of the additional 73,000 trips are allocated to public transport, 39% are added to walking trips over 200m and cycling and 28% are added to highway trips. The higher walk and cycle mode share across the borough is aligned with the wider GLA ambitions for active travel, as part of the Mayor’s Transport Strategy (MTS) Healthy Streets Agenda. With Crossrail 2 included, public transport accounts for nearly half of all additional trips (46%). Highway trips decrease substantially to 21% of additional trips, with walking and cycling also reducing to 33%. This is reflective of a greater pull associated with Crossrail 2 and the effects of transit-oriented development and capacity benefits that it also brings, assuming that this will decrease the attractiveness of using private car. The reduced attractiveness of active travel reflects the decreased requirement to use walking/cycling as part of a trip to reach a high-quality public transport service (i.e. rail/LU station).

Table 6: LTS modal split assumptions

Growth Scenario Car PT Active Modes8 2041 Medium OA Growth +21,000 +23,900 +28,300 2041 Medium OA growth +29% +33% +39% 2041 Medium OA with CR2 +15,700 +33,500 +24,000 2041 Medium OA with CR2 +21% +46% +33%

8 Active modes include travel such as walking and cycling

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3 Model Development - Networks

3.1 Highways

3.1.1 Model Version The forecast year model reported in this document is part of an updated production version (v3.8) of TfL’s London Highway Assignment Model (LoHAM). Using TfL’s HamoC tool9, a bespoke Kingston-centric version of the model has been produced for use in this study (KingHAM). The model supplied by TfL has a 2031 forecast year and represents the AM peak hour (08:00 – 09:00). This was developed by TfL from a 2012 base year version of KingHAM and considers the routeing of vehicles and the congestion on the core road network.

3.1.2 Model Network Updates and Assumptions Network updates were required to adjust the TfL-supplied 2031 KingHAM network to a 2041 representative network, required for the forecasting scenarios. An update to definitions of generalised costs, representing updated 2041 values of time and distance for the individual user classes within the model, was supplied from a more recent 2041 HAM model10. TfL also supplied updated 2041 cycle demand for the assignment, and provided 2041 matrices to use in the forecasting. Highway schemes completed since 2012 together with committed schemes11 were then identified. These include the package of Go Cycle schemes, designed to encourage mode shift from car to more sustainable modes. These are listed in Table 7, and have been incorporated into the 2041 model. Table 7: Summary of highway model changes

Scheme 2041 North Kingston Area Scheme ✓ Tolworth Broadway ✓ Surbiton Crescent Traffic Scheme ✓ Go Cycle: Station Plaza ✓ Go Cycle: Wheatfield Way ✓ Go Cycle: Portsmouth Road ✓ Go Cycle: Kingston to Surbiton ✓ Go Cycle: Surbiton to Tolworth ✓ Go Cycle: Kingston to New Malden ✓ Go Cycle: Kingston to Kingston Vale ✓

9 HAMoC enables the creation of bespoke, local area models for LoHAM. The process reduces the model detail in non-essential areas to help manage model run times and provide a more proportionate model for studies within a specific local area. 10 The Values of Time (PPM) and Values of Distance (PPK) were taken from the input files provided in TfL’s North London Highway Assignment Model (NoLHAM) v3.8. 11 2012 is the original base year used to create the 2031 model. Therefore, schemes completed in the period 2012- present day, needed to be included in the model

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In addition to these schemes, previous work completed by Arup as part of the KingHAM base year calibration and documented in the LMVR (issued to TfL on 7th July 2017) was included within the updated 2041 model. All of the schemes identified above were subjected to a network review process to ensure that they were coded correctly based on the proposed specifications outlined in the supplied model scheme list.

3.1.3 Model Network Review To review the new coding for the highway changes (Table 7), a series of checks were undertaken with Google Maps and Google Street View used as the main data sources to verify junction layouts (type, priorities, number of arms and lanes, turns), bus priority schemes, and link lengths associated with model changes. A further review of the updates that were incorporated from the KingHAM base year calibration work was completed to ensure that these coding changes had been implemented correctly. Spot checks were completed at nodes updated as part of the calibration work to ensure the junction layouts had been correctly updated and that their geographical location (x, y coordinate)12 were correct.

3.2 Public Transport

3.2.1 Model Version The forecast year models reported in this document are part of TfL’s Railplan public transport assignment model (v7.1), which is based in CUBE software. This was the latest version available at the time of this study.

3.2.2 Model Network Updates and Assumptions Committed public transport schemes were contained within the networks supplied by TfL for the Railplan model. The schemes that were identified as having a potential strategic relevance to demand and network performance in and around Kingston borough are outlined in Table 8. Table 8: Summary of supplied schemes in Railplan

Scheme Included South West London Line Enhanced Capacity ✓ Revised stock on South West providing 10-car on Main Line Suburban and ✓ Windsor Lines Thameslink KO2 – Victoria (South Central) services ✓ Crossrail 2 and associated NR changes ✓ 4% frequency/capacity increased on London Buses ✓ Subsurface Partial Upgrade ✓ Subsurface Full Upgrade ✓

12 55 nodes with differing coordinates were identified both in the Kingston area and in the wider zones of the model. It was judged that for nodes within the Kingston area, the Arup-specified coordinates from the LMVR should be used to update the model, and for all other nodes, the TfL 2031 based coordinates should be retained. In total, the coordinates of 27 nodes were updated.

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These schemes were reviewed to ensure that they were coded correctly based on the proposed specifications outlined in the model scheme list. The increases in frequency and capacity were analysed to ensure that assumptions were sensible. In addition to these schemes, Kingston will be served by new rolling stock as part of the Waterloo and South West upgrade. The introduction of new Class 710 ‘Aventra’ vehicles is set to replace the existing Class 455, Class 456 and Class 458 vehicles that currently operate on the network, and as well as having walk through carriages, they will provide a significant boost to standing capacity for peak suburban rail services, and improve crowding.

3.2.3 Model Network Review As part of the model forecasting process, a review of the future year networks was undertaken. This included checking the relevant bus, rail and underground transit lines to ensure that routing, stopping patterns and coded frequencies were as expected. Transit line capacities (expressed as seated capacity per hour) and transit line frequencies (expressed as trains per hour) for each future year were also compared between each of the future year scenarios. This was a way of checking that any changes in frequencies or capacities on transit lines were sensible and would not invalidate the forecasting outputs. Following this review, and accounting for all the changes made as part of the base year model validation, no additional changes were required to the network.

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4 Model Outcomes/Results

4.1 Base year to 2041 Reference Case This section compares the modelled base year to the 2041 reference case to analyse the forecast changes over a 30-year period. It is based on changes in population and employment growth forecast for the borough and the wider Greater London area, together with committed changes to the highway and public transport network.

4.1.1 Highways Traffic Flows Figure 5 shows morning peak hour (0800-0900) changes in modelled traffic volumes, where a red band represents a flow increase and a green bar a traffic decrease, with the width of the band proportional to the level of increase or decrease in traffic. Significant traffic growth is forecast on the strategic roads, primarily focused around the A3 westbound corridor between the junction with Coombe Lane, Tolworth junction, Hook junction and beyond (growth of between 800-1600 passenger car units or pcus13). Traffic flows also increase on the A3 eastbound between Tolworth and the A3 junction with Coombe Lane (400 and 800 pcus). In general terms, the increases in traffic on the strategic road network, will result in additional congestion and consequential re-routeing of traffic onto local roads. Minor flow reductions are forecast on other strategic routes including the A240 Surbiton Road and the A307 Richmond Road within Kingston town centre which are in the order of around 100 to 400 pcus. This decrease in flow is considered to be a consequence of increased highway demand as a result of road space reallocation resulting from the proposed Go Cycle schemes within Kingston town centre. Other forecast flow changes include a change of between 400-800 pcus on certain routes including: • A307 from Esher in the direction of Claremont Park and Cobham; • A308 Upper Sunbury Road in the eastbound direction near Hampton railway station; and • A3050 Hurst Road in the westbound direction from Hampton Court towards Walton-on-Thames.

13 A Passenger Car Unit is a measure used to assess highway capacity for transport modelling. Different vehicles are assigned different values, according to the space they take up. A car has a value of 1; smaller vehicles will have lower values, and larger vehicles will have higher values.

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Junction Delays Figure 6 shows morning peak hour (0800-0900) changes in modelled delays at junctions across the network where a red circle represents a delay increase and a green circle a delay decrease, with the size of the circle proportional to the level of increase or decrease in delay. Most of the forecast increase in junction delays within the Kingston borough are focused around the town centre and Hook junction on the A3. These areas also have the greatest concentration of employment and household growth in comparison to the base year. There are also significant delays forecast on strategic routes south of the A3 towards Ewell, Cheam and West Sutton. In the town centre, delays are focused around the A307 junction with the A308 near Clarence Street with delays increasing by over 2 minutes when compared to base year levels. Delays are also forecast to increase by a similar magnitude at the A240 roundabout with the A307 south of the town centre. At Hook junction, much of delay increases occur at entry arms to the roundabout from both the westbound (Hook Rise South) and the eastbound (Kingston bypass). There is also a considerable delay increase on the slip road from the A3 to Hook Rise South (westbound) and on the A243 near Gladstone Road. South of the A3, junction delays are forecast to increase along several strategic routes including the A240, A2043 and A24. Delays on the A240 are forecast to increase by more than 2 minutes per vehicle (on average) at junctions with the B284 Ruxley Lane and Kingston Road near Stoneleigh Railway Station. On the A2043, the junctions along the high street near Worcester Park are forecast to increase substantially with average delays per vehicle forecast to increase by over 2 minutes. Network Stress Figure 7 shows morning peak hour (0800-0900) changes in network stress, measured as the relationship between traffic flow and capacity (or volume over capacity – V/C) at junctions across the network. A red circle represents a V/C increase and a green circle a V/C decrease, with the size of the circle proportional to the level of increase or decrease in V/C.

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Figure 5: Change in traffic flows - base year to 2041 reference case (AM peak)

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Figure 6: Change in junction delays - base year to 2041 reference case (AM peak)

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

Figure 7: Change in junction stress - base year to 2041 reference case (AM peak)

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

4.1.2 Public Transport Demand Flows (Rail) Passenger flows on the South West Main Line (SWML) in the inbound direction are forecast to increase substantially between the base year and 2041 in the order of ~21,000 between Surbiton, Berrylands and New Malden and ~25,000 between New Malden, Raynes Park and Wimbledon. Flows are also forecast to increase substantially in the outbound direction in the order of ~12,000 although most of these trips are rail trips with destinations external to Kingston borough. On the Kingston loop line, flows are forecast to increase between ~1,500 and 2,000 through Kingston, Norbiton and New Malden. Flows also increased by a similar magnitude in the outbound direction. Rail passengers on the branch to Epsom via Motspur Park are forecast to increase in the order of 3,500 to 4,000 in both directions between Wimbledon and Worcester Park. The change in demand for rail between the 2011 base year and 2041 reference case for the morning peak period (0700-1000) is shown in Figure 8. Demand Flows (Bus) Bus flows are forecast to grow significantly on specific key corridors leading into Kingston town centre including: • A308 (Kingston Hill) carrying routes 85 and K3; • A307 (Richmond Road) carrying route 65; and • A310 (Kingston Road) carrying routes 281 and 285. Flow increases here are in the order of 500 to 1,000 passengers in the base year during the three-hour peak period, but are forecast to increase significantly (~1,000 to 2,000) within Kingston Town Centre, focused around the A307 and A308, which is partly due to the density of bus routes on this section of network. The A240 (Surbiton Hill Road) which connects Kingston and Surbiton stations carries a high density of routes (65, 71, 281, 406, 418, 465, K2 and K3) and is also forecast to increase substantially. Flows increase between these two stations and the area around Chessington North station. The change in demand for bus between the 2011 base year and 2041 reference case for the morning peak period (0700-1000) is shown in Figure 9.

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

Figure 8: Change in rail passenger volumes - base year 2041 reference case (AM peak period)

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

Figure 9: Change in bus passenger volumes - base year to 2041 reference case (AM peak period)

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

Station Entries and Exits The changes in forecast employment and homes between 2011 and 2041 are likely to have an impact on station loading within the study area, particularly for: • Station entries at Kingston - forecast to increase by 36% over the 30-year period from 2,330 to 3,160 while station exits at Kingston are forecast to increase by 41%; • Norbiton entries - forecast to increase by 63% and exits decrease by 51%; and • Surbiton entries - on the South West Main Line are forecast to increase dramatically by 50% representing a growth of ~4,000 passengers over the three-hour period. The change in station entries and exits between the 2011 base year and the 2041 reference case scenario is set out in Table 9 below. Only the busiest stations with significant volume changes have been included. Table 9: Station entries and exits – base year to 2041 reference case (AM peak period) Entries 2011 2041 Change (%) Kingston 2,330 3,190 37 Norbiton 890 1,450 63% Chessington North 1,190 1,370 15% Surbiton 6,670 10,190 53% Raynes Park 3,160 4,540 44% Hampton Court 890 990 11% Exits 2011 2041 Change (%) Kingston 1,390 1,990 43% Norbiton 390 590 51% Surbiton 3,320 4,720 42% Raynes Park 1,510 2,150 42% Crowding The level of crowding14 on trains is defined as the number of people standing per square metre of available standing space (PPMS). TfL generally groups this into bands, starting at less than 1 PPMS (generally considered to be uncrowded) to more than 4 PPMS (maximal); at this level of crowding passengers will have difficulty boarding trains with knock on operational impacts due to increased train dwell time at stations. For this assessment, we have also included a more than 5 PPMS category which can be considered ‘crush’ loading. Figure 10 and Figure 11 represent what these two levels of crowding look like with respect to passengers onboard and standing at the platform15. 4 PPMS has very crowded standing room only conditions onboard the train and with a small number of people unable or choosing not to board.

14 Crowding can be defined as <1 PPMS – some standing, 1-2 PPMS – busy, 2-3 PPMS – crowded, 3-4 PPMS – very crowded and >4 PPMS – maximal. 15 These pictures are of LUL stock and are for illustrative purposes only, rail rolling stock will differ from this

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

7 PPMS has severely crowded conditions onboard the train with no additional space and a severe equivalent number of people on the platform unable to board the service.

Figure 10: Four PPMS crowding level

Figure 11: Seven PPMS crowding level

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

In the network around Kingston, the 2011 base year and the 2041 reference case, crowding on rail through Kingston and Norbiton stations changes less than 1 PPMS to 1-2 PPMS in 2041. Crowding on the South West Main Line between destinations outside of the study area and Clapham Junction increases dramatically over the 30-year period from an average of 2-3 PPMS in 2011 to an average of 4-5 PPMS in 2041. The branch from Epsom via Motspur Park is also overcrowded in the 2041 reference case scenario although there is a minimal change in crowding conditions over the 30-year period. Worcester Park to Raynes Park and Wimbledon has an average of 3-4 PPMS in both the base year scenario and the 2041 reference case. This suggests that whilst conditions are already crowded, they do not materially worsen over the 30-year period, which could be due to several factors, including: • Small forecast increase in flows which has minimal impact on overall crowding; • Capacity improvements to suburban services on the South West Network with new rolling stock providing more standing space during peak hours; and • Passengers seeking alternative, less crowded routes into Central London. The crowding conditions on the rail and underground network within the borough and surrounding area in the 2011 base year are shown in Figure 12. The crowding conditions in the 2041 reference case scenario are shown in Figure 13. They both represent morning peak hour conditions.

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

Figure 12: Crowding on rail - base year (AM peak) Brentford Battersea Park Heathrow Parsons Green Terminals Syon Lane Kew Gardens 1,2,3 Putney Bridge Isleworth Barnes Bridge

North Sheen Barnes Clapham Junction Heathrow Heathrow Terminal Terminal 4 Richmond Mortlake Putney Wandsworth 5 St. Margarets East Putney Town Hounslow Southfields Earlsfield

Twickenham Wimbledon Park Feltham Wimbledon Whitton Haydons Road Dundonald Strawberry Road Hill Raynes Park Merton Park New Malden Colliers Wood Wimbledon Hampton Fulwell Teddington Hampton Kingston Norbiton Chase Wick South Wimbledon Motspur Berrylands Park Morden Road Morden Phipps Bridge Hampton Thames Malden Surbiton Court Ditton Manor

South Merton

Tolworth Morden South

Worcester St. 2 < 1 standing / m Park Helier 1 to 2 standing / m2 Sutton Common 2 to 3 standing / m2 Chessington North 3 to 4 standing / m2 4 to 5 standing / m2 Stoneleigh 2 > 5 standing / m

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

Figure 13: Crowding on rail - 2041 reference case (AM peak) Brentford Battersea Park Heathrow Parsons Green Terminals Syon Lane Kew Gardens 1,2,3 Putney Bridge Isleworth Barnes Bridge

North Sheen Barnes Clapham Junction Heathrow Heathrow Terminal Terminal 4 Richmond Mortlake Putney Wandsworth 5 St. Margarets East Putney Town Hounslow Southfields Earlsfield

South Merton

Tolworth Morden South

Worcester St. < 1 standing / m2 Park Helier 1 to 2 standing / m2 Sutton Common 2 to 3 standing / m2 Chessington North 3 to 4 standing / m2 4 to 5 standing / m2 Stoneleigh > 5 standing / m2

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

4.2 2041 Reference Case to 2041 Medium Growth This section compares the 2041 reference case scenario with a 2041 scenario that assumes a medium level of growth in additional jobs and homes as part of the Kingston opportunity area.

4.2.1 Highways Traffic Flows Figure 14 shows morning peak hour (0800-0900) changes in forecast traffic volumes. The additional growth in homes and jobs associated with the medium growth scenario is forecast to have a marginal impact on traffic flows, with most of the substantial pressures on the network occurring due to growth between the base year and the 2041 reference case. There were no highway links found to have increase of flows greater than 100-200 pcus in this comparison. Changes in flows due to the additional employment and household growth is predominantly focused around areas east of Kingston town centre in Norbiton and New Malden. The key increases include: • A3 (eastbound) between Tolworth junction and the junction with the A308 in Kingston Vale; • A240 Ewell Road southbound between the junction with Beaufort road and the A3 junction at Tolworth; • A308 westbound towards Kingston town centre from the junction with the A3 at Kingston Vale; and • A307 northbound towards Kingston town centre from the junction with the A243 near Surbiton station. Traffic flows on areas of the highway network around New Malden are also forecast to increase, particularly along the B282 and Malden Road in both directions leading from the junctions with the A3. Within Kingston town centre itself, an increase in traffic on the A2043 inbound towards the town centre is forecast, while other impacts occur within the vicinity of the Fairfield South and A307 junction near the recreation ground. There are some minor decreases in flows on certain parts of the network (between 50 to 100 pcus); however, it is likely that the majority of these will simply be re- assignment within the highway model. Junction Delays Figure 15 shows morning peak hour (0800-0900) changes in modelled delays at junctions across the network, where a red circle represents a delay increase and a green circle a delay decrease, with the size of the circle proportional to the level of increase or decrease in delay.

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

Junction delay at certain strategic junctions are forecast to increase due to the additional growth, particularly within Kingston town centre and along the A3 within the vicinity of most of the additional homes and jobs. Delays at the B282 and Malden Road junctions with the A3 are forecast to increase between 1 and 2 minutes due to additional trips in the New Malden area and increased traffic towards Kingston town centre. Other junctions with a similar level of change include the A243 junction with the A307 near Surbiton railway station, and the A309 junction with the B3379 and A3050 at Hampton Court railway station. In Kingston town centre, the largest delay increases (> 2 minutes) include: • Villiers Road and Fairfield South/Hawks Road junction (town centre east); • A307 junction with Orchard Road/Fairfield South; and • A307 junction with the A240 Penrhyn Road near Kingston College. Other delay increases also occur on the inner ring road where the A307 and A308 meet near Clarence Street, although these are smaller (1 to 2 minutes). There are minor increases in delay on the entry arms of the A3 Hook roundabout in both directions (45-seconds to 1 minute). There are no substantial changes in delays forecast for the A3 Tolworth junction. Network Stress Figure 16 shows morning peak hour (0800-0900) changes in network stress (or V/C) at junctions across the network. A red circle represents a V/C increase and a green circle a V/C decrease, with the size of the circle proportional to the level of increase or decrease in V/C. The distribution of junctions with significant increases in junction saturation was found to be broadly similar to that of junction delays. The following junctions all experience an increase of 25-50%, and operate at between 85-100% capacity: • A3 junction with South Lane; • A3 junction with Coombe Lane; and • Junction of Moor Lane/ Bridge Road, near Chessington North station. Other smaller changes were focused around the B282 and Malden Road junction near Motspur Park connecting into both junctions on the A3. V/C ratios at the B282/Malden Road junction increased by 10-25% and operate at 70-85% in the 2041 medium OA scenario. Other junctions along the B282 and B283 are also forecast to see an increase in saturation because of capacity constraints. As many of the junctions within Kingston town centre, Tolworth and Hook are already significantly over-saturated in the 2041 reference case scenario, the additional growth added as part of the medium OA assumption is forecast to have minimal impact on junction stress. This is likely because of the additional traffic avoiding these areas and instead seeking alternative, less-congested routes that are likely to have fewer junction delays.

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Figure 14: Change in traffic flows - 2041 reference case to 2041 medium OA growth (AM peak)

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Figure 15: Change in junction delay - 2041 reference case to 2041 medium OA growth (AM peak)

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

Figure 16: Change in junction stress - 2041 reference case to 2041 medium OA growth (AM peak)

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

4.2.2 Public Transport Demand Flows (Rail) The change in demand on rail between the 2041 reference case and the 2041 medium OA growth scenario is shown in Figure 17. This indicates that there are relatively minor changes to network demand with much of the increases to rail flows in the opposite direction to the morning peak direction of flow. This is likely to be mostly driven by a forecast increase in local employment opportunities within the borough. Flows increase between Raynes Park and New Malden by ~1,500 and New Malden and Norbiton by ~1,000. Kingston to Norbiton has a flow increase of ~700. The change in demand beyond Kingston station is very low, suggesting that most of the demand increases are driven by travel to and from Kingston rather than through trips. In the peak direction, flows are forecast to increase marginally by around 100 from Norbiton to New Malden but by over 1,000 from New Malden to Raynes Park and beyond. Demand Flows (Bus) The change in demand for bus between the 2041 reference case and the 2041 medium OA growth scenario is shown in Figure 18. Bus demand in the OA growth scenario is forecast to increase on similar routes to that of the 2011 base comparison, although the changes are significantly lower. Bus passengers using routes along the A240 (Surbiton Hill Road) are forecast to increase by ~500 to 1,000 between Surbiton and Kingston stations. This is partly due to more rail passengers exiting at Surbiton station because of increased homes and jobs in the area. This corridor is an area of the network that could see further pressure in future years. Routes 65, 71, 281, 406, 418, K2 and K3 all operate along this stretch at varying frequencies. In addition, bus passenger demand is forecast to increase on routes long the A308 (Kingston Hill) by around the same magnitude as Surbiton Hill Road, although the extent of this increase is confined to the stretch between the town centre and Kingston Hospital. Bus passenger flows on A310 Kingston Road see minimal changes between the two scenarios, as does the A307 Richmond Road. These patterns suggest that most of the bus demand growth within the borough is related to local trips into areas of the town centre and are focused less around connectivity to key rail stations.

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Figure 17: Change in rail passenger volumes - 2041 reference case to 2041 medium OA growth (AM peak period)

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

Figure 18: Change in bus passenger volumes - 2041 reference case to 2041 medium OA growth (AM peak period)

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

Station Entries and Exits The increase in employment and households forecast in the medium OA growth scenario is forecast to have a marginal effect on the entries and exits at rail stations within the borough and surrounding area. Highlight changes from the 2041 reference case are: • Increase in entries at Kingston of 3% and Norbiton of 11%; and • Increase in exits at Kingston of 38% and Norbiton of 54%. The change in station entries and exits between the 2041 reference case scenario and the 2041 Medium OA growth scenario is included in Table 10 below. Stations with no significant volumes or change have been omitted. Table 10: Station entries and exits - 2041 reference case to 2041 medium OA growth (AM peak period) Entries 2041 Ref 2041 Med Change (%)

Kingston 3,190 3,270 3% Norbiton 1,450 1,610 11% Chessington North 1,370 1,410 3% Surbiton 10,190 10,410 2% Hampton Court 990 960 -3% Exits 2041 Ref 2041 Med Change (%) Kingston 1,990 2,750 38% Norbiton 590 910 54% Surbiton 4,720 5,160 9%

Crowding Despite the changes in station entries and exits at key stations within the borough, the additional demand on the network between the 2041 reference case and medium OA growth scenario is not forecast to exacerbate crowding conditions. The crowding plots show no material change in the PPMS levels between these scenarios although it should be noted that saturation levels are likely to have changed marginally within the crowding bands shown. The results highlight that most of the network constraints and over-saturation of rail links arise due to the passenger growth forecast between the 2011 base year and 2041 reference case.

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

4.3 2041 Medium Growth to 2041 Medium Growth with Crossrail 2 This section highlights the changes in transport conditions between the medium OA scenario with and without the proposed Crossrail 2 scheme. Crossrail 2 will connect South West London to North East London via new tunnels constructed under Central London through Chelsea, Victoria, Euston and Dalston. Around Kingston and the south west, Crossrail 2 will follow existing rail alignments with an all-station ‘metro-style’ stopping pattern. Further information on the proposed Crossrail 2 scheme is included in section 1.4.

4.3.1 Highways Traffic Flows Figure 19 shows morning peak hour (0800-0900) changes in modelled traffic volumes between the 2041 medium growth scenario with and without Crossrail 2. The addition of Crossrail 2 is forecast to have a minimal impact on overall traffic flows. Reductions of around 50-100 pcus are forecast on the A3 inbound towards Central London from the Tolworth junction onwards. This could result from a number of highway trips being replaced by public transport due to the attractiveness of the ‘new’ frequent and direct Crossrail services. There is also a forecast decrease in flows on the A307 between the junction with the Kingston bypass and Surbiton station. This decrease in flow can, in part, be explained by a decrease in traffic between Hinchley Wood and Surbiton stations wanting to travel to Surbiton and Kingston town centres, and instead, opting to use Crossrail 2 to complete a portion or all their journey. There are some increases in highway flows forecast (100-200pcus), but these are mainly on short stretches of network on strategic routes that feed into Crossrail 2 stations. Increased highway flows on Coombe Lane West, for example, could result from individuals connecting into Raynes Park, which will have an increased peak frequency into Central London with Crossrail 2. Similarly, increased flows around Surbiton and Chessington North are likely to be because of an increased pull from the new Crossrail services. Junction Delays Figure 20 shows morning peak hour (0800-0900) changes in modelled delays at junctions across the network, where a red circle represents a delay increase and a green circle a delay decrease, with the size of the circle proportional to the level of increase or decrease in delay. Due to the relatively low change in highway flows, junction delay changes are forecast to be minimal between the Crossrail 2 scenarios. An increase of flow of 30 seconds to 1 minute is forecast within Kingston Town centre around the A307 junction with Orchard Road, which can be linked to the increase in homes and jobs in the area.

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

Network Stress Figure 21 shows morning peak hour (0800-0900) changes in network stress (or V/C) at junctions across the network. A red circle represents a V/C increase and a green circle a V/C decrease, with the size of the circle proportional to the level of increase or decrease in V/C. The distribution of junctions with significant increases in junction saturation was found to be broadly similar to that of junction delays. Key locations that experience junction saturation increasing by 25-50%, and operating at between 85-100% capacity include: • A3 junction with South Lane; • A3 junction with Coombe Lane; and • The junction of Moor Lane and Bridge Road near Chessington North railway station. Other smaller changes were focused around the B282 and Malden Road junction near Motspur Park connecting into both junctions on the A3. The B282/Malden Road junction increased by 10-25% between the scenarios to operate at 70-85% in the 2041 medium OA scenario. Other junctions along the B282 and B283 also see an increase in saturation due to capacity constraints. As many of the junctions within Kingston town centre, Tolworth and Hook are already significantly over-saturated in the 2041 reference case scenario, the additional growth added as part of the medium OA assumption with Crossrail 2 is shown to have minimal impact on junction stress. This is likely to be because of the additional traffic avoiding these areas and instead seeking alternative, less- congested routes that are likely to have fewer junction delays.

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

Figure 19: Change in highway traffic flows – 2041 Medium OA with and without CR2 (AM peak)

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

Figure 20: Change in highway junction delay – 2041 Medium OA with and without CR2 (AM peak)

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

Figure 21: Change in highway junction stress - 2041 Medium OA with and without CR2 (AM peak)

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

4.3.2 Public Transport Demand Flows (Rail) The addition of Crossrail 2 from 2041 is forecast to have a substantial impact on rail passenger demand on the network. This is due to significant increase in rail service frequency and capacity that the new metro-style services could deliver. Inbound flows towards central London from Kingston via Norbiton increase by ~8,000, and by more than ~15,000 between New Malden and Wimbledon where the branches from Chessington, Epsom and Hampton Court merge. Although demand increases are generally higher inbound, the outbound direction towards the Kingston borough also increases substantially. Flows from New Malden to Norbiton increase by ~ 7,000 and Norbiton to Kingston by 6,000. On the Chessington branch, which historically is not a busy rail route, flows increase by ~1,600 in the outbound direction and by ~3,000 on the inbound direction (from Tolworth onwards). The model forecasts the flows on the Epsom branch of Crossrail 2 to decrease in the order of ~2,000 flows compared to the without scenario. This is likely to be due to a consolidation of services based around a reduction in national rail services between Epsom and London Waterloo (via Ewell West). Crossrail 2 is a popular service for trips originating in Epsom and is forecast to make up a large proportion of total station demand. However, the increase is not large enough to offset the decrease in through-flows created by the removal of certain services. Through services, operating through Epsom towards London Victoria (via Ewell West) have been assumed to grow from a 6tph frequency to an 8tph frequency with Crossrail 2 in place. Furthermore, the interchange penalty associated with changing from these services to Crossrail 2 at Epsom is considered too great to out-weigh the benefits of faster and more direct journey times. The change in demand for rail between the 2041 medium OA without Crossrail 2 scenario and 2041 medium OA with Crossrail 2 scenario is shown in Figure 22. Demand Flows (Bus) The introduction of Crossrail 2 services to serve destinations in Kingston results in a relatively widespread decrease in bus routes across the borough. Demand decreases are forecast primarily on bus route segments that link existing rail stations that are set to be served by the proposed Crossrail 2 route including: • Decrease in north-south demand between Tolworth and Chessington and Kingston (via Surbiton). This primarily affects routes 65, 71 and K1. • Decrease in east-west demand between Hampton Court and Kingston (routes 111, 216 and 411) and Norbiton, Raynes Park and Wimbledon on the route 57. However, there are forecast increases in demand on specific bus route segments that connect into Crossrail 2 stations from areas that currently have poorer levels

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

of accessibility to rail or have marginally less competitive service provision. These examples include: • St Mary’s University connecting into Hampton Wick station rather than Teddington station. This would impact upon routes 281 and 285. • Kingston station to Kingston Academy (in both directions) has a significant increase in bus demand as this area is not served by rail. This is likely to impact upon demand and crowding levels of the route 65. • Morden Park town centre to Raynes Park (northbound) also has an increase in bus demand forecast. Motspur Park station is a short distance from this area, but it is likely that the high service frequency and lower wait times at Raynes Park is more attractive to trips originating from this area. This forecast increase would impact on bus route 72. The increase in service frequencies and reduction in journey times makes Crossrail 2 services considerably more attractive, meaning it is now considerably less attractive to travel via bus to rail stations that offer more frequent service levels such as Surbiton. On the other hand, the increased accessibility to/from Kingston borough brought about by the Crossrail 2 scheme, coupled with the forecast increase in employment means that certain corridors in the borough are likely to see an increase in demand for bus services. This is particularly relevant for areas that have limited connection to rail services including areas around Kingston Academy and A307 Richmond Road and St Mary’s University, A310 Kingston Road. In addition, areas that have good accessibility to a rail station are forecast to use bus for short trips to a station that has a significantly improved service level. This is evident in the increase in bus demand forecast between Morden Park and Raynes Park on the Grand Drive (B279). These forecast changes make the case that certain bus routes may need to be revised to better service Crossrail 2 from certain areas, while service provision on other routes could be reduced with minimal impact to passengers. Resources from routes that are seeing a significant switch to direct use of rail due to Crossrail 2 could be transferred to amend existing routes or create new routes to serve growth areas or areas with limited rail accessibility. The change in demand for bus between the 2041 medium OA without Crossrail 2 scenario and 2041 medium OA with Crossrail 2 scenario is shown in Figure 23.

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Figure 22: Change in rail passenger volumes - 2041 Medium OA with and without CR2 (AM peak period)

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Figure 23: Change in bus passenger volumes – 2041 Medium OA with and without CR2 (AM peak period)

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

Station Entries and Exits The addition of Crossrail 2 and the associated capacity from the new services is forecast to result in significant increases in passenger volumes entering and exiting stations. Some of the key changes include: • At Kingston, increase in station entries of 70% and exits of 155% compared to the without Crossrail 2 scenario; • Norbiton exits increase by 108% – increased employment opportunities are now facilitated with better access by Crossrail 2; and • Surbiton entries fall by 17% and exits fall by 23%, which could be due to: o Attractiveness of Crossrail 2, feeding demand directly into the network from their origins, rather than via another mode (i.e. bus) to a more frequent/direct service – particularly relevant in the 2011 scenario where suburban services into and out of London Waterloo may have had limited frequencies and available capacities; o In the Crossrail 2 scenario, a large proportion of services leaving Surbiton are moderately crowded, meaning it is more attractive for individuals to access the Crossrail 2 route at an earlier station; and o Greater demand using Crossrail 2 to reach their destination even with respect to intra-borough trips. This increases the number of exits at key locations where demand and employment is forecast. The change in station entries and exits in the Medium OA growth scenario with and without the Crossrail 2 scheme is included in Table 11. Stations with no significant volumes or change have been omitted. Table 11: Station entries and exits – 2041 Medium OA growth with and without CR2 (AM peak period) Entries 2041 Med OA 2041 Med OA CR2 Change (%) Kingston 3,270 5,570 70% Norbiton 1,610 3,350 108% Chessington North 1,410 2,950 109% Surbiton 10,410 8,660 -17% Berrylands 390 940 141% Raynes Park 4,560 6,480 42% Hampton Court 960 1,350 41% Hampton 1,120 2,750 146% Fulwell 60 1,110 1,750% Exits 2041 Med OA 2041 Med OA CR2 Change (%) Kingston 2,750 7,010 155% Norbiton 910 2,420 166% Chessington North 250 1,300 420% Surbiton 5,160 3,980 -23% Raynes Park 2,150 3,270 52% Hampton 280 790 221% Fulwell 70 770 1000%

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

Crowding Crossrail 2 is forecast to have a significant impact on alleviating crowding on the network in and around Kingston. In the 2041 without Crossrail 2 scenario, crowding on the South West Main Line through Surbiton, Berrylands, New Malden and Raynes Park has 4-5 PPMS, with Crossrail 2 included, this is reduced to 2-3 PPMS. This is likely to be due to the additional Crossrail 2 “metro” serves joining from Shepperton, Chessington and Epsom, creating a significant increase in overall capacity between Surbiton, Wimbledon and beyond. The new Crossrail 2 vehicles are likely to be significant designed to reduce overcrowding with more available floorspace for standing. This figure also assumes that no other changes are made to national rail services operating from destinations within Sussex, which are likely to make a large contribution to the remaining crowding across all services. On the Epsom branch via Worcester Park and Raynes Park, crowding reduces from 3-4 PPMS without Crossrail 2, to just 1-2 PPMS with Crossrail 2. However, it should be noted that flows on this stretch are forecast to decrease by ~3,000 with the scheme in place. This could be due to increased demand on national rail services through Ewell East, where passengers are forecast to change to Crossrail 2 and the Northern Line at Balham/Tooting Broadway, rather than at Epsom. The crowding plot showing rail and underground connections within the Kingston Borough and the wider South West London area is included in Figure 24.

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Figure 24: Crowding on rail - 2041 Medium OA with and without CR2 (AM peak) Brentford Battersea Park Heathrow Parsons Green Terminals Syon Lane Kew Gardens 1,2,3 Putney Bridge Isleworth Barnes Bridge

North Sheen Barnes Clapham Junction Heathrow Heathrow Terminal Terminal 4 Richmond Mortlake Putney Wandsworth 5 St. Margarets East Putney Town Hounslow Southfields Earlsfield

South Merton

Tolworth Morden South

< 1 standing / m2 Worcester St. 1 to 2 standing / m2 Park Helier 2 to 3 standing / m2 Sutton Common Chessington North 3 to 4 standing / m2 4 to 5 standing / m2 Stoneleigh > 5 standing / m2

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5 Summary of Challenges Identified

5.1 Highway Between the 2011 base and the 2041 reference case scenario, a forecast increase in traffic flows on the A3 is forecast to cause additional delays at strategic junction locations along the corridor, with pressure on Tolworth and Hook junctions. In Kingston town centre, increases in demand, linked to capacity reductions associated with the Go Cycle schemes are forecast to cause flow reductions on corresponding corridors and increased junction delay due to a decrease in overall junction capacity. This is forecast to cause vehicles to re-route onto adjacent roads in order to avoid congestion. This is likely to increase pressure on these routes, which are less suited to cope with high traffic volumes. Increase in delays at the A3 Hook junction, are forecast to increase by more than 2 minutes in the AM peak period. Certain junction arms at the Tolworth Roundabout are forecast to experience similar delay increases, although the level of change in junction saturation here is forecast to be considerably lower. Compared to the changes forecast over the 30-year period between the base year and the reference case, the flow increases associated with the medium OA growth are relatively minimal. Despite this, high levels of junction saturation in the town centre means that a small increase in highway flow results in substantial impacts in junction delay. Predicted increases to traffic flows in areas of the network east of the town centre connecting to the A3, is evident in the flow difference plots. This increase, coupled with a rise in traffic flows on the A3 itself between Tolworth and the junction with the A308, results in a significant increase in delay at a number of strategic points including the B282 and Malden Road junctions near Motspur Park. The impact of the additional OA growth on Tolworth and Hook junctions on the A3 is forecast to be minimal when compared to the 2041 reference case. Crossrail 2 has only a small impact on highway mode shift to public transport in the area, and has minimal reductions to forecast traffic flows; this is consistent with TfL’s findings in other parts of outer London. Most of these reductions are focused on the A3 inbound direction, as Crossrail 2 takes a small proportion of inbound traffic during the AM peak. This minimal impact on traffic flows means that the addition of Crossrail 2 has a minor impact on junction performance. Conversely, certain junctions at Tolworth junction and the A307 junction with Orchard Road in the town centre are forecast to experience an increase of up to 1 minute.

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5.2 Public Transport Buses Bus demand between 2011 and 2041 is expected to increase more substantially on major corridors that feed into both Kingston and Surbiton. The key increases in passenger demand are focused around: • A243 between Chessington and Surbiton stations, which affects routes 65 and 71; • A240 Surbiton Road between Surbiton station and Kingston Town Centre, impacting routes 65, 71, 281, K2 and K3; • A310 Upper Teddington Road between Fulwell, Teddington and Kingston Town Centre, affecting routes 281 and 285; and • A308 London Road between Putney/Kingston Vale and Kingston Town Centre, which affects routes 57, 85, 213, K2, K3, K4 and K5. Although the strategic model is not considered to be a suitable tool for assessing capacity and crowding on individual bus routes, the increase in passenger demand flows helps to identify where future changes to capacity may be required. It also helps to show where improvements to journey time reliability could be delivered. The addition of the OA growth puts further pressure on the A308 between Kingston Hospital and Kingston Town Centre, which affects routes 57, 85, 213, K2, K3, K4 and K5, and adds further pressure on Surbiton Road affecting routes 65, 71, 281, K2 and K3. Changes in other areas of the network remain minimal. With the introduction of Crossrail 2, demand on the buses are forecast to fall marginally when compared to the without Crossrail 2 scenario. This could be due to the additional capacity released by the new services meaning that passengers are no longer crowded off rail services and onto bus services. Lower levels of crowding on rail services makes them considerably more attractive than buses, even for short trips. A few corridors continue to see an increase in demand; however, this is driven primarily from areas with poor accessibility to the Crossrail 2 route, which includes: • A307 Richmond Road, affecting route 65; • Park Road, affecting route 371; and • A307 Portsmouth Road, affecting route 465. Rail In summary, it has been identified that most of the issues and network constraints on the rail network result from demand originating from areas external to the Kingston borough. The introduction of Crossrail 2 in 2041 is forecast to mitigate most of the high crowding in the borough that build up on the network between 2011 and 2041. Moderate levels of crowding on the South West Main Line remains with Crossrail

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2 in place; however, most of this demand originates from areas outside of the study area. Therefore, mitigation here requires more of a sub-regional strategy, rather than a local focus. Crossrail 2 results in a significant amount of additional passengers entering and exiting at certain stations that previously experienced low levels of passenger use. Therefore, it will be important that sufficient capacity or management measures are made available at these stations to accommodate additional demand. Crossrail 2 is also forecast to reduce bus demand across certain parts of the borough. There is no particular pattern to these decreases, e.g. around Crossrail stations, but rather a slight reduction in bus patronage on radial routes from around the borough towards Surbiton and Kingston. To put this into context, flow decreases are generally less than 250 passengers along each corridor over the 07:00-10:00 period. This is likely due to a number of factors, including: • The increased attractiveness of Crossrail 2, which results in significantly higher capacity and lower wait times for rail, means that public transport passengers will have an alternative to using bus which may provide a more frequent and less crowded service; • The increase in employment and housing growth at higher densities means that walking and cycling may become more viable alternatives for travel rather than using the bus; and • Due to increased rail capacity, fewer public transport passengers are likely to be ‘crowded off’ rail services onto bus services.

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6 Mitigation Measures

Following discussions with officers from TfL and the Royal Borough of Kingston upon Thames around a long list of potential mitigation measures, an agreed package of mitigation schemes was discussed and finalised. The challenges identified from the forecast year modelling prompted a greater need to address highway constraints as many of the public transport constraints were found to be largely addressed by Crossrail 2. Therefore, all potential mitigation schemes identified were run through the strategic highway KingHAM model. The original list of potential mitigation schemes presented to TfL and Kingston borough is included in Table 12. Table 12: Potential intervention schemes

Potential Mitigation Schemes Crossrail 2 - Kingston, Surbiton, Tolworth branches Kingston Town Centre. Preferred Highway Option (SDG 2014 Option 6). Modified to include: a) 2-way bus lane through Clarence Street and b) 4 lane, 1-way working on all sections of the existing gyratory being converted to 2-way working (Wood Street/Sopworth Way/Richmond Road/Cromwell Road/Queen Elizabeth Road/ Fairfield North) Tolworth Peninsularisation Scheme (Option 2, TAP p.97) [1] Tolworth - T2 scheme (TfL Tolworth Roundabout scheme) Tolworth - H1 Scheme (TfL Hook Roundabout Scheme) Tolworth - Strategic cycle and pedestrian improvements Tolworth - Bus stop/bus route optimisation Tolworth – New highway connections Tolworth – Ewell Road junction Low Car policy test with strong demand management (TfL) [2] Bus service enhancements – improved frequency, improvements to orbital services and strengthening of Surrey buses – Kingston services Chessington Relief Road Relocation of Kingston Rail Station (approximately 100m to the west) [3] New Rail Station at Chessington World of Adventures Southern Rail Link (new rail link connecting Heathrow to south London and Surrey) [4]

Notes [1] • This is a major grade-separated junction on the trunk road network. Traffic volumes are particularly high and delays are commonplace - which highlights that the junction is working at or above capacity. There are no local (strategic) routes for traffic to use as an alternative route; • To maintain existing capacity, you would need to construct 2-3 lanes of highway to travel round in the anti-clockwise direction, which would need to accommodate vehicle "swept paths". This has been done at Elephant & Castle. The space is limited here to do this - even if there was the space, it would be creating several turning movements around the gyratory, which would be in addition to those movements already in operation. The traffic signal sequencing around the gyratory would be difficult to synchronise.

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• Reduction in capacity could have a negative environmental impact with traffic queuing for longer; • The pedestrian link would now have to cross double the number of lanes of traffic as present; and • It is unclear how the development in the centre of the roundabout would be accessed/ serviced.

[2] This is a Policy test undertaken by TfL on a number of other OA studies and reflects the mode switch impacts of local cycle/walk/PT improvements, along with strong demand management measures not picked up in the main LTS modelling.

[3] This is unlikely to have an impact, apart from local connectivity.

[4] Southern Rail Link - this is the scheme referenced in the MTS. However, there is no Government commitment to this scheme and its objective is to alleviate Heathrow expansion assuming no new highway trips. Therefore, this should not be regarded as an intervention for RBK growth (this would require an LTS scenario with Heathrow expansion).

The decision to take an intervention forward for testing within a package was based upon a number of factors including strategic relevance, deliverability and feasibility. Certain mitigations were deemed unsuitable for testing in the strategic models and instead required a more detailed study through micro-simulation modelling or other assessment tools. Following these considerations, the short-list of mitigation schemes to take forward to develop the package measures were as follows: • Kingston Town Centre Preferred Highway Option 6 - Preferred highway option from the Kingston Town Centre Movement Strategy. Final Report (Steer Davies Gleave November 2014). This was modified to: o include a 2-way bus lane through Clarence Street; and o 4-lane, 1-way working on all sections of the existing gyratory are to be converted to 2-way working • TfL Tolworth Roundabout Scheme (T2 Scheme) o A dedicated lane for heavy left turn from Kingston Road to A3; o Extends greenway along Kingston Road; and o Includes a package of small scale traffic efficiency measures, urban realm & greening measures • TfL Hook Roundabout Scheme (H1 Scheme) o New link at Hook Road Roundabout to link to the A3 (southbound) • Bus Service Improvements o 10% increase in bus service frequency across the borough; o Re-routing associated with the town centre scheme; and o New Clarence Street 2-way bus link.

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

• Demand Management o A scenario reflecting ambitious pan London policy to reduce car mode share incorporating TfL’s healthy streets agenda, substantial spending on public transport infrastructure including Crossrail2 and travel demand management. This could include measures such as: road user charging; a more sustainable freight policy; a work place parking levy and road space re-allocation Further information on the technical specification of each intervention test is available in the Appendix. Discussions took place between RBK, TfL and Arup to identify packages of schemes that could potentially mitigate against the identified challenges. These packages were aligned to the aspirations of Kingston borough, and are outlined below: • Package 1 tests the impact of both the Kingston Town Centre, Tolworth T2 and Hook H1 schemes along with a number of improvements to bus services; • Package 2 tests the same highway schemes as package 1 but with the Crossrail 2 and demand management in place. This package tests the highway interventions in the context of stronger demand management and a greater emphasis on the use and application of public transport; • Package 3 tests to what extent Crossrail 2 may mitigate the highway network issues if no additional physical alterations are made to the network. Note that this test has already been completed as part of the forecasting scenarios (see section 4.3); and • Package 4 tests to what extent Crossrail 2 may mitigate the public transport network issues if no additional physical alterations are made to the network. Note that this test has already been completed as part of the forecasting scenarios (see section 4.3). As packages 3 and 4 have already been tested as part of the development scenarios, the results are presented in section 4.3 of this report. Table 13 lists the agreed mitigation packages for testing and outlines the individual mitigation tests that made up each package run.

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Table 13: Agreed mitigation packages for testing

Package 1 Package 2 Package 3 Package 4 Mode Highway Highway Highway PT Ref Case + Ref Case + Ref Case + Ref Case Scenario OA OA OA +OA Kingston Town Centre Yes Yes No N/A Preferred Highway Option 6 Tolworth – T2 Scheme [1] Yes Yes No N/A Hook – H1 Scheme [1] Yes Yes No N/A Bus service improvements [2] Yes Yes No No Crossrail 2 No Yes [4] Yes Yes Strong pan-London demand No Yes No No management [3]

[1] Requires scheme details from TfL [2] Requires TfL/ RBK input [3] Requires demand matrices from LTS [4] Assuming Crossrail 2 is included in LTS Demand Management Run

6.1 Package 1

6.1.1 Introduction Package 1 tests the impact of all major proposed highway interventions including both the Kingston town centre scheme, Tolworth T2 and Hook H1 schemes. The Kingston town centre scheme has been modified to include a 2-way bus lane through Clarence Street. 4-lane, 1-way working on all sections of the existing gyratory have been converted to 2-way working. The purpose of the scheme is to assess the impact of these major highway infrastructure schemes on network constraints without any interventions to manage demand or major investment in public transport. For further information on the indicative scheme layouts tested in the KingHAM model, please refer to the Appendix – Kingston Town Centre scheme (Figure 57), Tolworth T2 Scheme (Figure 58) and Hook H1 Scheme (Figure 59).

6.1.2 Results Traffic Flows Figure 25 shows the change in highway flow (pcus) in the 08:00-09:00 AM peak within Kingston Town Centre compared with the 2041 medium OA development scenario. The results show that the impacts of the Kingston town centre improvements are forecast to have a significant impact on traffic in and around the town centre. The conversion of Cromwell Road to allow bi-directional running is forecast to significantly increase traffic flows in the proposed anti-clockwise direction by around 800 to 1,600 pcus. The new traffic movement opportunities

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also increase flows on Sopwith Way/Wood Street (Westbound). The scheme is shown to reduce traffic in the existing direction of the gyratory (clockwise) direction as well as on the A307 inbound towards the town centre. Despite this, due to the reduction in road capacity around the A307, a greater number of vehicles are forecast to avoid the town centre areas by alternative routes, putting pressure on local areas including Kings Road/Richmond Park Road, Elm Road and Park Road linking to the A308. Traffic flows on the Rose Fair (A308) on the bridge over the Thames are forecast to increase with a greater proportion of traffic forecast to use Seven Kings Way to avoid busier sections of the A307 and A308. • Large flow ‘increases’ on the new anticlockwise section of current gyratory; and • Kingston Town Centre (KTC) scheme impacts generally local to town centre but with some flow increases north of the town centre and across Kingston bridge Figure 26 below shows the change in highway flows (pcus) in the AM peak in and around the Tolworth and Hook junctions. This shows that around 400 pcus are forecast to use the new link road between Hook Roundabout and the A3 (Southbound) in the AM peak. This new connection is forecast to increase traffic flows on the A3 (Southbound) by the same amount. The new link road is forecast to marginally decrease the number of vehicles using the A309 Kingston Bypass towards Hinchley Wood and the existing southbound direction of the A3 (Esher Bypass). The movement between Hook Road (South) and Hook (Road) north on the roundabout is forecast to marginally decrease due to the scheme. Highlights from the analysis include: • The proposed Hook H1 slip road attracts around 400 pcus per hour; • Flows on the A3 southbound, south of the proposed on-slip, increase by around 200 pcu/hr (or +5%); • Flows on the A309 EB Kingston bypass approaching Hook increases by 150 pcu/hr (or +14%) as there is a new opportunity to join the SB A3 at Hook; • Increases in clockwise circulating flows at Hook roundabout but no significant delay increases; • Corresponding reductions in EB A3 flows of around 100 pcu/hr (or -3%) between Hook, Tolworth, and reduction in clockwise circulating flows at Tolworth roundabout as requirement for this “U” turn now removed; • Tolworth T2 scheme results in flow increase on the NB A240 Tolworth Road towards the roundabout around 125 pcu/hr (+6%); • However, lower circulating flows resulting from the Hook H1 scheme mitigate this with a net increase of 60 pcu/hr on the WB on-slip; and • Reductions on local roads, including Jubilee Way/Cox Lane of 80 pcu/hr or (-10%) between A240 and A243 Hook Road.

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An analysis of highway traffic specifically using the new schemes (H1, T2) was undertaken for both Package 1 and Package 2. The analysis selected a link in the network, with all origins and destinations of users for that link captured and displayed for the modelled morning peak. The Package 1 observations for both Hook (Figure 27) and Tolworth16 are noted below. The analysis for Package 2 is reported in the next section. The key highlights for package 1 are: • At Hook, to the north, traffic is being drawn in to the new link from Surbiton along the A243 Hook Road via the A3 Hook roundabout; • To the south, using the new link originates from the Hook/ Chessington/ West Ewell neighbourhoods; • Nearly all traffic using the new link at Hook is heading towards the M25 along the A3; • The distribution of traffic utilising the northbound approach into the A3 Tolworth roundabout incorporates trips originating from Ewell, Stoneleigh and Worcester Park to the south; and • All traffic using the improved left-turn on the northbound approach at Tolworth is heading towards the M25 along the A3.

16 It was not possible to produce the same analysis for Tolworth as it is a turning capacity improvement, and not a new link

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Figure 25: Change in traffic flows with package 1 (KTC) (AM peak)

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Figure 26: Change in traffic flows with package 1 (Tolworth) (AM peak)

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Figure 27: Traffic flows with package 1 (using new Hook link) (AM peak)

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

Junction Delays Figure 28 below shows the change in junction delay (expressed as average delay per vehicle) in the AM peak between 08:00 and 09:00 within Kingston Town Centre. This plot compares to the 2041 medium OA development scenario. The results show that within the town centre, the conversion of the gyratory to allow bi-directional running has a negative impact on several junctions. Average delay per vehicle is forecast to increase by more than 1.5 minutes at the following junctions: • A307 (Fairfield North) and A308 (London Road); • A308 (London Road) and Albert Road; • A308 (Sopwith Way) and A307 (Richmond Road) north of Kingston station; and • A307/A308 Wheatfield Way. Other observations from the analysis include: • Increases in delays in town centre associated with increased flows; • Reduction in bus journey times (-26% approx.) and junction delays (-41% approx.) for buses rerouting onto the north-south Clarence Street and across Kingston; • Although journey distances for other highway vehicles that would have previously used Clarence Street northbound increase, journey times of those vehicles decrease (-60% approx.) due to multiple junction delay reductions; and • Junction delays increase significantly at access points onto the old gyratory. The impact of the scheme has some positive impact on certain junctions, facilitated mostly by a reduction in car traffic on Clarence Street/Eden Street within the town centre, allowing more efficient bus movements. Junctions at the top end of Clarence Street, where it meets the A307, are forecast to experience minor reductions in delay, and at the opposite end of Eden Street (Ashdown Road/Lady Booth Road). There are also minor delay decreases forecast at the A307/A243 junction near Surbiton and the A3/A238 junction at Coombe Lane West. Figure 29 shows the change in junction delay in the AM peak in the area surrounding Tolworth and Hook junctions compared to the 2041 medium OA development scenario. This show that at the Hook roundabout, the new link from the roundabout to the A3 increases delays marginally on approaches to the roundabout on Hook Rise South, caused by the forecast increase in traffic making use of the new movement possible from the A309 Kingston bypass. Delays also increase on the A243 Hook

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Road at the junction with Tolworth Road, similarly caused by traffic changing their routing based on the new opportunities provide by the link road. The forecast decreases in traffic required to join the A3 southbound at Tolworth, coupled with the impact of the Tolworth T2 scheme, decreases the pressure on the junction, with delays predicted to fall by 0.5 to 1.5 minutes at the on-slip from Tolworth roundabout to the A3 southbound. Other observations include: • Increases in clockwise circulating flows at Hook roundabout, but no significant delay increases; and • Reduction in delay on the A240 approach to the roundabout resulting from extra capacity Junction Saturation (V/C) Figure 30 shows the change in junction saturation (or V/C) in the AM peak between 08:00 and 09:00 within Kingston Town Centre compared to the 2041 medium OA development scenario. The results show that the introduction of a bus lane along the section of Eden Street and Clarence Street is forecast to have a significant impact on junction saturation at all major points along the proposed bus priority section, helping to reduce delays, particularly for local public transport services. Due to additional bus movements allowing bi-directional running on turning from Eden Road onto the A307, the junction between the A307 and A308 (Fairfield North) is forecast to increase in saturation significantly by more than 25%. Junctions along Gordon Road and Birkenhead Avenue are forecast to become more congested as several vehicles use these routes to avoid certain eastern sections of the gyratory. Figure 31 shows the change in junction saturation (or V/C) in the AM peak between 08:00 and 09:00 around the Tolworth and Hook junctions. The new link road between Hook roundabout the A3 southbound is forecast to increase junction saturation at the new on-slip. The on-slip is forecast to be at 85- 100% capacity in the package scenario. Other junctions on the network those around Hook roundabout remain significantly over capacity (100-120%) in the package 1 scenario but are not forecast to be impacted upon by the proposed Hook or Tolworth schemes.

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Figure 28: Change in junction delays with package 1 (KTC) (AM peak)

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Figure 29: Change in junction delays with package 1 (Tolworth) (AM peak)

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Figure 30: Change in junction stress with package 1 (KTC) (AM peak)

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Figure 31: Change in junction stress with package 1 (Tolworth) (AM peak)

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6.2 Package 2

6.2.1 Introduction Package 2 tests the impact of all major proposed highway interventions included within Package 1 but also contains the impact of strong pan-London demand management and the introduction of a major public transport scheme in Crossrail 2. This package is used to forecast that the impact the highway schemes will have against the backdrop of policy to encourage mode shift to more sustainable modes of transport) and infrastructure interventions that significantly improve the offering of public transport within Kingston borough.

6.2.2 Results Highway Flows Figure 32 and Figure 33 below shows the change in the number of highway flows (pcus) using the network in the AM peak between 08:00 and 09:00 within Kingston Town Centre compared to the 2041 medium OA development scenario. The results of the run of package 2 on highway flows within Kingston Town Centre has an almost identical impact on the network as that of package 1. Flow increases are focused on the anti-clockwise section of the gyratory where new traffic movements have been made possible through bi-directional running. The impact of the demand management however decreases traffic flows on a widespread scale across a large proportion of the network. The decrease of between 100 to 400 pcus in the AM peak hour is forecast for the A3 in both directions, particularly between New Barnes/West Malden and Kingston Vale. Flows are forecast to decrease by a similar proportion on all major strategic routes in and out of Kingston town centre including the A308, A307 (Portsmouth Road), A307 (Richmond Road) and A310. Changes at Hook and Tolworth junctions are also similar to package 1, where flows increase on the new A3 link road between Hook roundabout and the A3 (southbound). Differences are focused on the A243 (Hook Road) where flows are forecast to increase marginally in both directions between Hook junction and he junction with Bridge Road. The A243 (southbound) near Surbiton station is also forecast to increase by around 100 to 400 pcus. Small decreases in traffic volumes are focused for strategic routes including Ditton Road, Sugden Road and Worchester Park Road (connecting to A240 Kingston Road). Figure 34 and Figure 38 compare package 1 and package 2 directly to show the net effect of the demand management and Crossrail 2 on the highway network. It should be noted that the plots have been amended from the package 1 comparison to pick up smaller scale changes in highway demand. In Kingston Town Centre, the most notable forecast decreases in highway flows include:

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• Decrease in flows on the A3 (southbound) between New Malden (junction with the B282) and Tolworth of greater than 500 pcus as well as in both directions between New Malden and Kingston Vale of between 200 to 500 pcus; • Decrease eastbound on the A308 (Hampton Court Road) across Hampton Court Park of between 200 and 500 pcus; • Decrease eastbound on Ditton Hill and Sugden Road of between 200 to 500 pcus; and • Decrease on southbound A310 (Kingston Road) inbound towards Kingston Town Centre and across Kingston bridge of between 200 and 500 pcus. Some increases in flows can be observed at the following locations: • Flows increase by 100 to 200 pcus on the A307 and A243 near Surbiton railway station as well as on the remainder of the A307 between Surbiton and the area around Kingston college; and • Flows increase significantly by between 200 and 500 pcus on the Malden Road and B284 Church Road close to Malden Manor Station. At Hook and Tolworth junctions, the most notable changes on the network between the package 1 and package 2 scenarios are flow increases: • Hook Road (northbound) from around Chessington North to Hook Roundabout increased by 200 to 500 pcus. Flows between Chessington South and Chessington North stations on Leatherhead Road increase between 50 to 200 pcus; and • Flows increase on the Kingston bypass between Hook junction and Hinchley Wood station between 50 to 200 pcus. Forecast changes in highway flows on the A3 appear to be minimal with a reduction of between 50 to 100 pcus on the A3 southbound between Tolworth, Hook and A3 southbound. There are some significant decreases forecast in some east-west traffic, particularly on the B284 between Malden Manor and the junction with the A240 Kingston Road, and the Woodstock Lane South between the area around Chessington North and Claygate station. The select link analysis for Package 2 for the Hook H1 scheme is shown in Figure 36. The overall observations for both the H1 and T2 schemes indicate the same traffic origin/ destination patterns as for Package 1.

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Figure 32: Change in traffic flows with package 2 (KTC) (AM peak)

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Figure 33: Change in traffic flows with package 2 (Tolworth) (AM peak)

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Figure 34: Change in traffic flows package 1 - package 2 (KTC) (AM peak)

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Figure 35: Change in traffic flows package 1 - package 2 (Tolworth) (AM peak)

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Figure 36: Traffic flows with package 2 (using new Hook link) (AM peak)

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Junction Delays Figure 37 below show the change in junction delay (expressed as average delay per vehicle) in the AM peak between 08:00 and 09:00 within Kingston Town Centre compared with the 2041 medium OA development scenario. The conversion of the gyratory to allow bi-directional running is forecast to continue to add increased delay at key junctions along the route, despite the additional of techniques to further manage traffic demand. Delays are forecast to increase by greater than 90 seconds at the A307/A308 junction with London Road. The impact of Crossrail 2 and the increased demand to access Kingston station is also forecast to increase delays on the A307/A308 junction (Richmond Road) outside Kingston mainline station. Elsewhere in the town centre, the bus lane conversion within Clarence Street and Eden Street continues to have a positive impact on junction delays within this area with delays decreasing by 0.5 to 1.5 minutes. Similarly, in the town centre near Villers Road, Hawks Road and Fairfield South, junction delays are forecast to decrease, some by greater than 1.5 minutes. This could be due to a fewer number of vehicles on the network limiting the number of vehicles rat-running through this significantly constrained area of the network. Figure 38 below show the change in junction delay (expressed as average delay per vehicle) in the AM peak between 08:00 and 09:00 near Kingston and Tolworth junctions on the A3 compared with the original 2041 medium OA development scenario. The results show that because of the proposed scheme in conjunction with demand management, the benefits at junctions are wide spread across most of the network. Junction delays are forecast to decrease at the following points: • Approaches to Hook roundabout from the A3 decrease by between 0.5 and 1.5 minutes although delays at these points are forecast to remain high at greater than 2 minutes average delay per vehicle; • Delays decrease at junctions along Hook Road between Hook roundabout and the area surrounding Chessington South station; • Delays decrease significantly at Tolworth junction with delays forecast at between 15-60 seconds in the package 2 scenario; and • Flow benefits are also evident at junctions along several north-south routes including A240 Kingston Road south of Tolworth junction and A2043. Figure 39 and Figure 40 compare package 1 and package 2 directly to show the net effect of the demand management and Crossrail 2 on junction delay. The model forecast shows that within Kingston town centre, delays are likely to fall across all major junctions because of demand management and Crossrail 2. In greatest beneficial change to junction delay (greater than 1.5 minutes) is forecast at the following junctions: • Brook Street and Wheatfield Way;

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• Albert Road and A308 London Road; and • A308 Sopwith Way and A307 Richmond Road near Kingston railway station. There are also major reductions in delay forecast at previous constrained areas of the network where vehicles were previously forecast to attempt to avoid using the congested gyratory. An example of this on the plots is the junction with Canbury Park Road/Gordon Road and Queen Elizabeth Road north of the inner Gyratory. The model also forecasts minor improvements to junctions along the A3 including at the junction with Coombe Lane West (0.5 to 1.5 minutes) and the junction with Malden Road (greater than 1.5 minutes) near Motspur Park railway station. On the area of the network surrounding Tolworth and Hook Junctions on the A3, the results are equally spread out across the network. Decrease in delays are concentrated around Hook junction (including both off ramps approaching Hook roundabout), although it should be noted that most of these changes are around 30 – 90 seconds average delay per vehicle. Benefits are also extended to junctions along Hook Road (A243) towards Chessington North and Chessington South Stations and the junction with Bridge Road. Junctions at Tolworth including on and off ramps to the A3 southbound are forecast significant improvements to delay with demand management in place. The link between Tolworth Roundabout and the A3 southbound is expected to see a reduction in delays of greater than 1.5 minutes average delay per vehicle. Improvements are also forecast along the A240 Kingston Road connecting to Tolworth junction. Delay is forecast to change marginally by 0.5 to 1.5 minutes despite the junction remaining significantly over-saturated in the package 2 scenario. Junction Saturation (V/C) Figure 41 shows the change in junction saturation (or V/C) in the AM peak between 08:00 and 09:00 within Kingston Town Centre. The bus lane conversion on Clarence Street and Eden Road is forecast to deliver similar improvements to the level of junction saturation within those areas of the town centre. Junction saturation deteriorates significantly however on the A307 and A308 junction near Wheatfield Way, a situation that is likely deteriorated by a reduction in lane capacity in this area. Figure 42 shows the change in junction saturation (or V/C) in the AM Peak between 08:00 and 09:00 in the areas of the network around Tolworth and Hook. The results show that package 2 has minimal impact on the area with very few improvements or deteriorations in junction saturation forecast when compared to the medium OA growth scenario. The forecast improvements to junction capacity are at: • Tolworth junction on-slip to the A3 (southbound), which improves its V/C by 25-50%;

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Transport for London Kingston Transport Study Model Forecasting Report

• Junction with Moor Lane and Bridge road near Chessington North station improves by 25%; and • Junction with the A3 and south lane is forecast to improve by 25%. Figure 43 and Figure 44 show the change in junction saturation (expressed as V/C %) between the package 1 and package 2 scenarios, highlighting the net impact of demand management techniques and Crossrail 2. In Kingston Town Centre, changes to junction saturation are forecast to be minimal with only a small number of junctions expected to see a significant change of greater than 25%. These junctions include: • A307 Richmond Road and East Road (north of Kingston Town Centre); • Canbury Park Road and Gordon Road (north of A308 London Road); • South Lane and Bodley Lane near junction with A3 Bypass; and • Beverley Way and Coombe Lane West at junction with A3 Kingston Bypass. It is worth noting that other junctions may experience a benefit of between 0 and 25% V/C, but these are not reflected in the attached plots. Around Hook and Tolworth junctions, junction saturation is forecast to remain relatively unchanged between the scenarios (less than 25% change). The only junction expected to receive an improvement of saturation of greater than 25% is that with Highdown and the Manor Drive, near the A2043 and Worcester Park railway station.

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Figure 37: Change in junction delay with package 2 (KTC) (AM peak)

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Figure 38: Change in junction delay with package 2 (Tolworth) (AM peak)

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Figure 39: Change in junction delay package 1 to package 2 (KTC) (AM peak)

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Figure 40: Change in junction delay package 1 to package 2 (Tolworth) (AM peak)

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Figure 41: Change in junction stress with package 2 (KTC) (AM peak)

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Figure 42: Change in junction stress with package 2 (Tolworth) (AM peak)

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Figure 43: Change in junction stress package 1 to package 2 (KTC) (AM peak)

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Figure 44: Change in junction stress package 1 to package 2 (Tolworth) (AM peak)

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7 Conclusion

Using TfL-approved transport modelling, the Kingston Transport Study has undertaken a detailed analysis of pressures on the highway and public transport networks for the current day and for future forecasts based on 2041 with levels of housing and employment from the current 2016 London Plan and committed transport schemes. On top of this, RBK has provided housing and employment forecasts providing 15,000 homes and 30,000 jobs over and above the London Plan. The study has tested the impacts of these forecasts and tested a number of packages of transport schemes to mitigate the impact of potential future growth. Based on London-plan based growth in employment and jobs, there are forecast to be significant stresses on both the highway and public transport networks by 2041 with increases in traffic flows and consequential significant increases in traffic delays. Although the assessment of traffic conditions includes transport schemes likely to be in place by 2041, a number of these schemes within the borough relate to the Go Cycle programme. Whilst these schemes improve conditions for cyclists, and should help facilitate a shift to more sustainable modes, they do result in a reduction in road capacity resulting from the reallocation of road space. Crowding on rail services through the borough is forecast to worsen considerably by 2041, particularly on the SWML services through Surbiton. Although Crossrail 2 is in the very early stages of planning and no decision to build it has been made, it is expected that permission to build the line will be sought in the early 2020’s, followed by construction and potential opening by the early to mid-2030’s. As well as generating new travel opportunities with consequential benefits to mode choice and increased public transport patronage, Crossrail 2 will offer substantial relief to the expected train crowding and will largely mitigate against the forecast levels of train crowding, despite the increase in passengers. A number of packages of highway schemes have been assessed and could help to mitigate traffic conditions in the borough. The conversion of the existing one-way gyratory to two-way operation, along with sustainable transport options including a bus-only operation along Clarence Street, could significantly improve the nature of the town centre including reducing severance, linking the station to the town centre and reducing bus journey times through the Clarence Street bus corridor. Results have shown that the impacts are relatively local but do include increases in delay at several junctions. If this scheme is to be progressed, further work will be required on developing detailed designs, combined with detailed micro- simulation modelling to ensure that the scheme is viable. However, except for the Go Cycle schemes, none of the highway-based schemes assessed will lead to a shift away from car-based travel or effect a switch to more sustainable modes. This will require a much more radical approach. To this end, a demand management scenario has been tested, based on an ambitious pan-London policy to reduce car mode share that incorporated TfL’s healthy streets agenda, substantial spending on public transport infrastructure (including Crossrail 2), and

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travel demand management. This could include measures such as: road user charging; a more sustainable freight policy; and a work place parking levy and road space re-allocation. Further work needs to be undertaken on the exact nature of what demand management should comprise of, and how it could be implemented across the GLA, and the modelled forecasts indicate that this is probably the only realistic way of reducing the reliance on car-based travel within and through the borough.

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