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Sale Price Drives Potential Effects on DOD and Commercial Launch Providers United States Government Accountability Office Report to Congressional Addressees August 2017 SURPLUS MISSILE MOTORS Sale Price Drives Potential Effects on DOD and Commercial Launch Providers Accessible Version GAO-17-609 August 2017 SURPLUS MISSILE MOTORS Sale Price Drives Potential Effects on DOD and Commercial Launch Providers Highlights of GAO-17-609, a report to congressional addressees Why GAO Did This Study What GAO Found The U.S. government spends over a The Department of Defense (DOD) could use several methods to set the sale billion dollars each year on launch prices of surplus intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) motors that could be activities as it strives to help develop a converted and used in vehicles for commercial launch if current rules prohibiting competitive market for space launches such sales were changed. One method would be to determine a breakeven and assure its access to space. Among price. Below this price, DOD would not recuperate its costs, and, above this others, one launch option is to use price, DOD would potentially save. GAO estimated that DOD could sell three vehicles derived from surplus ICBM Peacekeeper motors—the number required for one launch, or, a “motor set”—at motors such as those used on the Peacekeeper and Minuteman missiles. a breakeven price of about $8.36 million and two Minuteman II motors for about The Commercial Space Act of 1998 $3.96 million, as shown below. Other methods for determining motor prices, such prohibits the use of these motors for as fair market value as described in the Federal Accounting Standards Advisory commercial launches and limits their Board Handbook, resulted in stakeholder estimates ranging from $1.3 million per use in government launches in part to motor set to $11.2 million for a first stage Peacekeeper motor. encourage the development of the Estimated Per Motor Set Breakev en Price after Storage and Disposal Cost Av oidance commercial space launch industry in Discount the United States. Legislative and policy changes would be needed to allow DOD to sell these motors for use on commercial launches. The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2017 contains a provision for GAO to analyze the potential effects of allowing the use of surplus ICBM motors for commercial space launch. This report addresses (1) the options for pricing surplus ICBM motors; and (2) the potential benefits and challenges of allowing surplus ICBM motors to be used for commercial space launch. The prices at which surplus ICBM motors are sold is an important factor for GAO used Office of Management and determining the extent of potential benefits and challenges of allowing the motors Budget criteria to develop a range of to be used for commercial launch. Potential benefits include breakeven prices, collected detailed motor storage and disposal costs from · increasing the global competitiveness of U.S. launch services, and the Air Force, reviewed industry · providing customers more launch options and greater flexibility. stakeholder responses to an Air Force request for information about other Potential challenges include pricing methods, and interviewed DOD · affecting private investment negatively, hindering innovation, and disrupting and industry officials. competition among emerging commercial space launch companies; and What GAO Recommends · expanding the workload of the Air Force program office responsible for maintaining and refurbishing the motors. GAO is not making recommendations in this report. Further, uncertainties in underlying assumptions and cost estimates—such as Peacekeeper motor storage and disposal costs—could hinder effective decision making. DOD is also conducting a study on the potential effects of allowing View GAO-17-609. For more information, surplus ICBM motors to be used for commercial launch. Because DOD’s study is contact Cristina Chaplain at (202) 512-4841 or not completed, it is not clear the extent to which its study addresses such [email protected]. uncertainties. United States Government Accountability Office Contents Letter 1 Background 5 Options for Determining the Selling Prices for Surplus ICBM Motors 14 Potential Benefits and Challenges of Selling Surplus ICBM Motors for Commercial Launch 20 Agency Comments 33 Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology 36 Appendix II: Existing Global Commercial Launch Vehicles 49 Appendix III: GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments 51 GAO Contact 51 Staff Acknowledgments 51 Appendix IV: Accessible Data 52 Data Tables 52 Tables Table 1: Surplus Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Motor Breakeven Prices16 Table 2: Current Small to Medium Commercial Launch Vehicle Providers Capability and Price 22 Table 3: ICBM Motor-based Launch Vehicle Cost per Kilogram (kg)28 Table 4: Existing Commercially Available Global Launch Vehicles Price and Derived Price per Kilogram to Low-Earth Orbit 30 Table 5: Assumptions Used in Economic Analysis 40 Table 6: Surplus ICBM Motor Breakeven Prices 41 Table 7: Net Present Value of Storage and Disposal Costs for the Surplus Peacekeeper Motor Stockpile under Status Quo (Government Launches Only) 42 Page i GAO-17-609 Surplus Missile Motors Table 8: Net Present Value of Storage and Disposal Costs for Surplus Minuteman II Motor Stockpile under Status Quo (Government Launches Only) 43 Table 9: Net Present Value of Storage and Disposal Costs for Surplus Peacekeeper Motor Stockpile Including Government and Commercial Launches 43 Table 10: Net Present Value of Storage and Disposal Costs for Surplus Minuteman II Motor Stockpile Including Government and Commercial Launches 44 Table 11: Difference Between Storage and Disposal Costs under Government Only and Commercial Launch Scenarios for Peacekeeper Motors 45 Table 12: Difference Between Storage and Disposal Costs under Government Only and Commercial Launch Scenarios for Minuteman II Motors 45 Table 13: Calculation of Launch Prices Based on Surplus ICBM Motor Breakeven Prices and Higher Stage Commercial Motor Costs, Peacekeeper Derived Launch Price 47 Table 14: Minuteman II Derived Launch Price 47 Table 15: Peacekeeper Sensitivity Analysis of Price per Kilogram 48 Table 16: Minuteman Sensitivity Analysis of Price per Kilogram 48 Table 17: Emerging Launch Vehicle Providers 50 Figures Figure 1: Notional Depiction of Transfer Process from Bunker to Launch Site 9 Figure 2: Surplus Intercontinental Ballistic Motor-Based Launch Vehicles 12 Figure 3: Estimated per Motor Set Breakeven Price after Storage and Disposal Cost Avoidance Discount 16 Figure 4: Existing Global Commercial Launch Vehicles 49 Accessible Data for Highlights Figure: Estimated Per Motor Set Breakeven Price after Storage and Disposal Cost Avoidance Discount 52 Accessible Data for Figure 1: Notional Depiction of Transfer Process from Bunker to Launch Site 52 Accessible Data for Figure 2: Surplus Intercontinental Ballistic Motor-Based Launch Vehicles 52 Accessible Data for Figure 3: Estimated Per Motor Set Breakeven Price after Storage and Disposal Cost Avoidance Discount 53 Page ii GAO-17-609 Surplus Missile Motors Accessible Data for Figure 4: Existing Global Commercial Launch Vehicles 53 Abbreviations DOD Department of Defense EELV Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle FAA Federal Aviation Administration FASAB Federal Accounting Standards Advisory Board ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NDAA National Defense Authorization Act RSLP Air Force’s Rocket Systems Launch Program This is a w ork of the U.S. government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States. The published product may be reproduced and distributed in its entirety w ithout further permission from GAO. How ever, because this w ork may contain copyrighted images or other material, permission from the copyright holder may be necessary if you w ish to reproduce this material separately. Page iii GAO-17-609 Surplus Missile Motors 441 G St. N.W. Washington, DC 20548 Letter August 16, 2017 Congressional Addressees The U.S. government spends over a billion dollars each year on launch activities as it strives to help develop a competitive, commercial space launch industry from which it can assure its access to space and lower its launch costs. The Department of Defense (DOD) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) acquire launch services for a range of satellites and other payloads that vary by weight. Many of these launches use large launch vehicles capable of lofting heavier satellites weighing thousands of pounds. However, for low- and low to medium-weight satellites, these agencies pursue various launch strategies, including launching with other payloads, known as ride sharing, and launching on small and medium class commercial launch vehicles. Additionally, these agencies have the option to use launch vehicles derived from surplus intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) motors—that is, rocket motors that are no longer needed to support the active nuclear arsenal if they meet one of the exceptions contained in the Commercial Space Act of 1998.1 Currently, the Air Force stores, maintains, and tests these motors to provide responsive space launch for the federal government.2 The Air Force spends approximately $17 million each year on its stockpile of about 720 surplus ICBM motors to store the motors in bunkers, maintain facilities and equipment, conduct research to ensure the motors are aging safely, and, as the budget allows, dispose of motors that have become unusable. 151 U.S.C. §§ 50131, 50132, 50134 and
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