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The Effects of Proportional Representation on Election

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The Effects of Proportional Representation on Election THE EFFECTS OF PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION ON ELECTION LAWMAKING IN AOTEAROA NEW ZEALAND by Joshua Ferrer A Thesis Submitted to the Politics Programme University of Otago in Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts January 2020 ii iii ABSTRACT It is widely recognized that most politicians are self-interested and desire election rules beneficial to their reelection. Although partisanship in electoral system reform is well- understood, the factors that encourage or constrain partisan manipulation of the other democratic “rules of the game”—including election administration, franchise laws, campaign finance, boundary drawing, and electoral governance—has received little scholarly attention to date. Aotearoa New Zealand remains the only established democracy to switch from a non-proportional to a proportional electoral system and thus presents a natural experiment to test the effects of electoral system change on the politics of election lawmaking. Using a longitudinal comparative case study analysis, this thesis examines partisan and demobilizing election reforms passed between 1970 and 1993 under first-past- the-post and between 1997 and 2018 under mixed-member proportional representation (MMP). Although partisan election reforms have not diminished under MMP, demobilizing reforms have become less common. Regression analysis uncovers evidence that partisan election lawmaking is more likely when the effective number of parties in parliament is lower, when non-voters have more leverage, and when reforms are pursued that diminish electoral participation. iv To Arthur Klatsky, with all my love v PREFACE This thesis would not be what it is without the generosity, time, and aroha of countless people. For the sake of the Otago Politics Department’s printing budget, I will attempt to be brief. Foremost gratitude goes to Janine Hayward for her expert supervision and to Andrew Geddis for his guidance and support in making the project a reality. I am grateful for the dozens of individuals who opened their schedules and houses to me for interviews. In particular, thank you to Elizabeth McLeay for her professional help and friendship, to Robert Peden for his encouragement and generosity, and to Matthew Gibbons and Jack Vowles for their assistance. Thanks is also due to the Electoral Commission staff, especially Dean Shirley, Andrew Peden, Natalie McNaught, and Karen Murdoch, to Hannah O’Brien and Laila Baily of the Parliamentary Information Service and to the Hocken Collections and Alexander Turnbull Library staff. I am also grateful to Kate Thompson at the Robert Stout Law Library for her help with acquiring a variety of primary sources, to David Farrar for providing polling data, and to Claudia Geiringer and Polly Higbee for sharing their database of urgency motions. This project was funded by a Fulbright Graduate Award and a University of Otago Fulbright Extension Award. I am thankful for all the New Zealand Fulbright whānau, and especially to Lauren Parsons for making my transition to a new country seamless and providing me logistical and moral support. Earlier versions of this research were presented at a University of Otago Politics Departmental Seminar, the New Zealand Fulbright Mid-Year and End of Year Programmes, and the 2019 New Zealand Political Studies Association Conference in Christchurch. I am grateful for the valuable feedback received from participants at each of these events, which has improved the final product immeasurably. I am also grateful to the University of Otago Politics Department for welcoming me, and especially to Robert Patman for his help with inequality data and Justine Marshall for her administrative assistance. Thanks also to Annika Ariel for her editorial assistance. Finally, I am eternally thankful for my loving family, who has supported me at every step of this journey. vi vii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. ix LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................... xi CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER 2: THE POLITICS OF ELECTION LAWMAKING ...................................... 7 The Political Science of Electoral Systems ..................................................................... 8 A More Expansive View of Election Laws: From “Electoral Reform” to “Election Reform” ........................................................... 10 The Politics of Election Lawmaking ............................................................................. 15 Theoretical Foundation: Elite Agency, Statecraft Theory, and Neo-Institutionalism ............................................................................................... 32 The Importance of Studying the Politics of Election Lawmaking in an Era of Democratic Decline ................................................................................... 34 CHAPTER 3: WHY AOTEAROA NEW ZEALAND? ................................................... 37 Aotearoa New Zealand’s 1996 Electoral System Reform ............................................ 37 Beyond Electoral System Reform: Aotearoa New Zealand’s Unique Political System ....................................................... 43 A Model Democracy or an Imperfect One? .................................................................. 47 CHAPTER 4: HYPOTHESES, METHODOLOGY, AND DATA .................................. 53 Hypotheses .................................................................................................................... 53 Methods ......................................................................................................................... 56 Scope of Analysis .......................................................................................................... 57 Data ............................................................................................................................... 60 Explanation and Operationalization of Variables ......................................................... 64 CHAPTER 5: DATA ANALYSIS ................................................................................... 75 Matrix of Election Lawmaking ..................................................................................... 75 Descriptive Analysis ..................................................................................................... 80 Logistic Analysis ........................................................................................................... 87 Analysis Using Complex Measure of Partisanship ....................................................... 93 Analysis of Government Party ...................................................................................... 97 Analysis of Election Law Type ................................................................................... 102 Analysis of Proposed Members’ Bills ......................................................................... 115 viii CHAPTER 6: ELECTION LAWMAKING IN AOTEAROA NEW ZEALAND AND THE IMPACT OF PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION ....................................... 127 Is Aotearoa New Zealand Election Reform Consensus-Based? ................................. 128 Analysis of Hypotheses and Causal Factors ............................................................... 139 Analysis of Other Explanatory Variables.................................................................... 146 Policy Triggers in Aotearoa New Zealand Election Lawmaking ............................... 170 The Randomness of Partisan Election Lawmaking..................................................... 175 CHAPTER 7: CONCLUSION ....................................................................................... 177 Central Hypotheses Revisited ..................................................................................... 177 Implications ................................................................................................................. 183 Future Research Directions ......................................................................................... 186 BIBLIOGRAPHY ........................................................................................................... 189 Primary Sources .......................................................................................................... 189 Works Cited................................................................................................................. 190 APPENDIX A: ELECTION ENACTMENT DESCRIPTIONS .................................... 219 APPENDIX B: ELECTION BILL DESCRIPTIONS .................................................... 225 APPENDIX C: CLASSIFICATION OF ELECTION LAW TYPE ............................... 227 APPENDIX D: LIST OF INTERVIEWS ....................................................................... 229 APPENDIX E: PROVISIONS IN ELECTION ENACTMENTS THAT AFFECT ELECTORAL PARTICIPATION .................................................................. 231 APPENDIX F: PROVISIONS IN PROPOSED BILLS THAT AFFECT ELECTORAL PARTICIPATION .................................................................................. 243 APPENDIX G: LEVERAGE CALCULATION ............................................................ 246 APPENDIX H: NUMBER OF PARTIES .....................................................................
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