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China-India-Japan in the Indo-Pacific Ideas, Interests and Infrastructure China-India-Japan in the Indo-Pacific Ideas, Interests and Infrastructure China-India-Japan in the Indo-Pacific Ideas, Interests and Infrastructure Editors Jagannath P. Panda Titli Basu PENTAGON PRESSPRESSPENTAGON China-India-Japan in the Indo-Pacific Ideas, Interests and Infrastructure Editors: Jagannath P. Panda and Titli Basu First Published in 2018 Copyright © Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. ISBN 978-93-86618-42-9 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without first obtaining written permission of the copyright owner. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this book are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, or the Government of India. Published by PENTAGON PRESS 206, Peacock Lane, Shahpur Jat New Delhi-110049 Phones: 011-64706243, 26491568 Telefax: 011-26490600 email: [email protected] website: www.pentagonpress.in In association with Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses No. 1, Development Enclave, New Delhi-110010 Phone: +91-11-26717983 Website: www.idsa.in Printed at Avantika Printers Private Limited. Contents Foreword ix Acknowledgments xi List of Contributors xiii 1. Introduction 1 Jagannath P. Panda and Titli Basu PART I DECODING THE CHINESE STRATEGY 2. Belt and Road Initiative: An Effective Future-oriented Instrument of China’s Economic Development and Diplomatic Expansion? 29 Justyna Szczudlik 3. China’s Security Governance Conception for Asia: Perspectives from India 47 Susanne Kamerling 4. Reflection on OBOR: A Test of Out-of-the-box Thinking: A Chinese Perspective 64 Huang Yunsong 5. All-rounded Sino-Indian Competition? China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its Implications for South Asia 79 Simon Shen 6. Beijing’s OBOR Initiative and Taiwan: Beyond the Infrastructure Gambit 103 Ming-Shih Shen 7. The Impact of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) on India-Pakistan Relations 118 Christian Wagner vi China-India-Japan in the Indo-Pacific 8. Xi Jinping’s Chinese Dream in the Indian Ocean Region: Time to Move beyond Outdated Maritime Strategies 137 Sukjoon Yoon PART II EVOLVING JAPANESE NARRATIVES 9. China’s OBOR Initiative and Japan’s Response: The Abe Doctrine, Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy and Japan-India Strategic Partnership 159 Yasuyuki Ishida 10. Japan’s Struggle in China-led Asian Economic Order: Reactive Initiatives in Asian Infrastructure 189 Takashi Terada 11. Infrastructure Development in Asia: Japan’s New Initiatives and Its Cooperation with India 203 Ryohei Kasai 12. China in Japan-India Security Ties: Infrastructure as a Factor 216 Satoru Nagao 13. Asia’s Democratic Security Diamond in the Indo-Pacific Region: A Maritime Perspective 230 Takuya Shimodaira PART III REFLECTIONS ON INDIA AND THE INDO-PACIFIC 14. The Strategic Implications of Maritime Infrastructure Developments in the Indo-Pacific 247 Lee Cordner 15. Soft Balancing: Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC), India-Japan Arch in contrast to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China’s Rising Influence 269 Jagannath P. Panda 16. Japan, India and China on Africa: Global Ambitions and Human Resource Development 293 Kenneth King Contents vii 17. Realising ‘Make in India’: Port-led Development in the Indian Ocean 310 Titli Basu 18. India’s Transformed ‘Continental-Nautical’ Strategy: Rebooted Connectivity-Based Infrastructure-Compact 332 Dattesh D. Parulekar 19. The Belt and Road Initiative and Southeast Asia 372 Munmun Majumdar Index 387 Foreword The regional economic and security dynamics are fast changing, with the term “Indo-Pacific” gaining greater traction among experts and scholars. Although the subtleties of the terms “Indo-Pacific” and “Asia-Pacific” continue to be subject to debate; the cogency of the term “Indo-Pacific” is gaining momentum, underpinned by the vision of a “free and open” regional order that embraces universally accepted democratic values in preference to authoritarianism and a unilateral vision. The geo-economic power of the world has been shifting, meanwhile, from the north and the west to the south and the east, exemplified by China’s rise, and its extraordinary success in lifting almost half a billion people out of poverty within the space of one generation, a feat unprecedented in history. With some attendant delay, the inevitable shift of geopolitics too is happening, with the locus of geopolitical contestation among the great powers moving eastward (towards Asia). Moreover, the bipolar, post-Second World War world has been replaced, first by a description popularised by Samuel Huntington – “uni-multipolar” – and currently by a dynamic and polycentric world order, with shifting strategic allegiances. President Xi Jinping, under his “new era” foreign policy strategy, is leading a number of strategic initiatives that seem to be setting the stage for a Sinocentric order in the region and beyond. Meanwhile, India’s judgement to envision a free and open liberal Indo-Pacific region along with likeminded countries like Japan, reflects pragmatism, but India and Japan need to back it up with a well-defined action plan and invest more capital in pursuing their joint initiative. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan is offering big investment ideas for connectivity and infrastructural development. This is an area that must invite serious academic discussion and scrutiny. This volume, titled China-India-Japan in the Indo-Pacific: Ideas, Interests and Infrastructure, aims to enrich such an academic endeavour. For India, the Indo-Pacific is emerging as one of the most important x China-India-Japan in the Indo-Pacific strategic theatres. While its maritime economic and security interests are growing, India needs to engage more with the littoral and hinterland states in the Indo-Pacific.India needs to grow faster and invest more in its immediate and extended neighbourhood. As China’s geopolitical moves are supported by its economic strength, which it is using to brand infrastructure and other investments under its One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative, India too should have a clearer plan of action. It gives me great pleasure to compliment the editors for bringing out a volume of this length and nature. The volume offers diverse perspectives on the changing environment in the Indo-Pacific region. It brings to the readers’ consideration the competing ideas and interests that figure in the foreign policy initiatives of Asia’s three biggest economies – China, India, and Japan. Their focus on infrastructural investment is a special feature that makes the politics surrounding the Indo-Pacific region interesting. I would like to compliment the authors for their valuable contribution to this academic exercise. Even if the debates and arguments continue, these will increase our understanding of the complexity of the Indo-Pacific region, where China, India, and Japan are three important actors. Jayant Prasad Director General Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses Acknowledgements This Volume is an academic outcome of IDSA’s outreach activity with think tanks and academics across the Indo-Pacific region. The initial conception of the Volume can be traced back to a research idea on China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (BRI). Following several discussions, it was decided to widen the scope and situate the study in the larger Indo-Pacific space by exploring the complex interplay between geo-political and geo-economic variables shaping three Asian power’s – China, India and Japan –broader ideas, interests and visions for the region. The theme of the Volume was decided keeping in mind the changing environment in the Indo-Pacific region that affects India’s policy positioning and strategic interests in the region. The collaboration between a wide networks of scholars from across Indo-Pacific region certainly enriched the research project. The editors would like to sincerely express their gratitude to the Director General, Shri Jayant Prasad, for his continued intellectual guidance and encouragement. We also thank Deputy Director General Maj. General Alok Deb for his support. We are grateful to each of the contributors for bringing in diverse perspectives into this Volume. Their wealth of experience and in-depth understanding makes this Volume interesting and timely. Any conflict in the national perspective of countries discussed in the Volume is only meant to enrich academic debates, discussions and scholarly deliberations. However, neither editors nor the Institute assumes any responsibility for an author’s individual arguments, citations, facts, figures or perspectives. Any errors or factual incongruities in any of the chapters in the Volume are the sole responsibility of the individual author. We would also like to thank Mr Vivek Kaushik and Ms Nidhi Pant for facilitating the completion of this Volume by providing valuable editorial assistance. Dr Jagannath P. Panda & Dr Titli Basu List of Contributors Justyna Szczudlik is Head of Asia-Pacific Programme and China analyst at the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM). She holds a PhD in Political Science from the University of Warsaw (2015), an MA in Chinese Studies from the University of Warsaw (2008) and an MA in Political Science from the University of Wroclaw (2002). She studied Chinese language at the College of Advanced Chinese Training, Beijing Language and Culture University, Beijing,
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