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Floating-Exchange-Rates-And-International-Monetary-Reform.Pdf Job Name:2081858 Date:14-12-11 PDF Page:2081858pbc.p1.pdf Color: Cyan Magenta Yellow Black THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH, established in 1943, is a publicly supported, nonpartisan research and educational organization.. Its purpose is to assist policy makers, scholars, businessmen, the press and the public by providing objective analysis of national and international issues. Views expressed in the institute's publications are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the staff, advisory panels, officers or trustees of AEI. Institute publications take four major forms: 1. Studies-in-depth studies and monographs about government programs and major national and international problems written by independent scholars. 2. Legislative Analyses-balanced analyses of current proposals before the Con­ gress, prepared with the help of specialists in the fields of law, economics, and government. 3. Forums and Conferences-proceedings of discussions in which eminent authorities express contrasting views on public policy issues. 4. Reviews-timely presentations of informed opinion and information on the emerging issues of the day. COUNCIL OF ACADEMIC ADVISERS Paul W. McCracken, Chairman, Edmund Ezra Day University Professor of Busi­ ness Administration, University of Michigan Kenneth W. Dam, Harold 7. and Marion F. Green Professor of Law, University of Chicago Law School Milton Friedman, Paul Snowden Russell Distinguished Service Professor of Eco­ nomics, University of Chicago; Nobel Laureate in Economic Science Donald C. Hellmann, Professor of Political Science and Comparative and Foreign Area Studies, University of Washington D. Gale Johnson, Eliakim Hastings Moore Distinguished Service Professor of Eco­ nomics and Provost, University of Chicago Robert A. Nisbet, Albert Schweitzer Professor of Humanities, Columbia University G. Warren Nutter, Paul Goodloe McIntire Professor of Economics, University of Virginia Marina v. N. Whitman, Distinguished Public Service Professor of Economics, Uni­ versity of Pittsburgh James Q. Wilson, Henry Lee Shattuck Professor of Government, Harvard University EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE Herman J. Schmidt, Chairman of the Board Richard J. Farrell William J. Baroody, President Richard B. Madden Charles T. Fisher III, Treasurer Richard D. Wood William J. Baroody, Jr., Executive Vice President Gary L. Jones, Assistant to the President Edward Styles, Director of for Administration Publications PROGRAM DIRECTORS Russell Chapin, Marvin H. Kosters, Government Legislative Analyses Regulation Studies Robert A. GoldWin, Seminar Programs W. S. Moore, Legal Policy Studies Rudolph G. Penner Robert B. Helms, Health Policy Studies Tax Policy Studies Thomas F. Johnson, Economic Policy Robert J. Pranger, Foreign and Studies Defense Policy Studies Floating Exchange Rates and International Monetarg Reform Floating Exchange Rates and International Monetarg Reform Thomas D.Willett American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research Washington, D.C. Distributed to the Trade by National Book Network, 15200 NBN Way, Blue Ridge Summit, PA 17214. To order call toll free 1-800-462-6420 or 1-717-794-3800. For all other inquiries please contact the AEI Press, 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 or call 1-800-862-5801. Thomas D. Willett is Horton Professor of Economics at Claremont Graduate School and Claremont Men's College. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Willett, Thomas D Floating exchange rates and international monetary reform. (AEI studies; 172) 1. Foreign exchange problem. 2. International finance. I. Title. II. Series: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. AEI studies; 172. HG3821.WS3 332.4'S 77-13327 ISBN 0-8447-3271-0 AEI studies 172 © 1977 by American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C. Permission to quote from or to reproduce materials in this publication is granted when due acknowledgment is made. Printed in the United States of America CONTENTS PREFACE INTRODUCTION: FROM BRETTON WOODS 1 TO JAMAICA 1 Bretton Woods and the Par Value System 2 The Overlooked Problem: Speculative Capital Flows under an Adjustable Peg System 7 Development of the False Identification of the Par Value System with International Financial Cooperation 10 The Breakdown of the Par Value System 13 Interest in Proposals for Greater Exchange Rate Flexibility 15 The Initiation of Widespread Floating and the Process of International Monetary Reform 22 2 THE PERFORMANCE OF FLOATING RATES 27 Overview and Summary 27 Speculation and Exchange Rate Volatility 32 Effects on International Trade and Resource Allocation 41 Balance-of-Payments Adjustment 48 Insulation and Policy Independence 53 Floating Exchange Rates, the Alleged Vicious Circle, and World Inflation 57 THE JAMAICA REFORMS AND INTERNATIONAL 3 MONETARY PROBLEMS 69 The C-20 Negotiations: The Choice between a Tight or Loose International Monetary System 69 The Completeness of the Jamaica Agreements 78 Floating Exchange Rates and International Liquidity and Confidence Problems 85 International Liquidity Issues under Managed Floating 98 INTERNATIONAL SURVEILLANCE OF THE 4 ADJUSTMENT PROCESS UNDER FLOATING RATES 109 Introduction: The Oil Shocks and Concerns about Beggar-Thy-Neighbor Policies and Sharing the Oil Deficits under Floating Exchange Rates 109 Discussion of Reserve Indicators and International Surveillance during the C-20 Negotiations 113 Difficulties with the Target Zone and Reference Rate Approaches 120 Securing Effective International Financial Cooperation: The Need for a Case-History Approach to Multilateral Surveillance 126 A Final Point: The Need for Greater Recognition That Trade Surpluses Are Not Required for Economic Prosperity 129 Postscript: The New IMF Guidelines on Surveillance over Exchange Rate Policies 133 5 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 135 APPENDIX A: OECD Forecasts of Trade and Current Account Balances: 1969-1975 139 APPENDIX B: International Monetary Fund Executive Board Decision on Surveillance over Exchange Rate Policies, April 29, 1977 143 General Principles 143 Principles for the Guidance of Members' Exchange Rate Policies 144 Principles of Fund Surveillance over Exchange Rate Policies 144 Procedures for Surveillance 145 PREFACE The debate over fixed versus flexible exchange rates has long been dear to the hearts of economists. But for many years this subject was widely viewed as being only of academic interest. A decade ago "fixed" exchange rates were viewed by most monetary officials as being the backbone of international financial cooperation and the stability of the international monetary system. Floating exchange rates were viewed as being beyond the realm of consideration by men of practical affairs. Today, almost all of the major industrial countries have floating currencies, albeit with varying degrees of official management. At Kingston, Jamaica, in early 1976 representatives of the over 100 member nations of the International Monetary Fund reached agreement on Amendments to the IMF Articles of Agreement which in substance officially ratified floating rates as the basis for our in­ ternational monetary system. How did such a substantial shift in views come about, and how solid a foundation do floating rates pro­ vide for our international monetary system? Were the Jamaica Agree­ ments just a stopgap measure and are further basic international monetary reforms urgently needed as some critics have charged? In this study I have attempted to address such questions against the background of a historical review of academic and official views on exchange rate arrangements and the establishment and evolution of the postwar international monetary system. These topics have been my major area of professional concern for the past decade, both as an academic at Cornell, Harvard, and the University of Virginia and in government service as senior staff economist at the Council of Economic Advisers and as deputy assistant secretary for inter­ national research and planning and director of international monetary research at the U.s. Treasury. This study was written while the author was director of inter­ national monetary research at the u.s. Treasury Department, but the views expressed are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the u.s. government. In its preparation I have ac­ cumulated a large number of debts. Without implying their necessary agreement with all of the conclusions of the study, I should like to thank: Jacob Dreyer, George Halm, Steven Kohlhagen, John Makin, Frank McCormick, Charles Pigott, John Rutledge, Wilson Schmidt, Marie Thursby, Ed Tower, Ted Truman, Marina Whitman, John Williamson, George Willis, and, especially, Sven Arndt, Richard Sweeney, and Gottfried Haberler for reading and commenting on various parts of the manuscript. Excellent typing and research assis­ tance from Norman Carleton, Craig Larimer, Barbara McBride, Dion Reich, and Brigita Woods is gratefully acknowledged. I should also like to thank my family for their patience and understanding during the evening and weekend hours devoted to the study. 1 INTRODUCTION: FROM BRETTON WOODS TO JAMAICA It is not possible to date precisely the end of the international mone­ tary system established at Bretton Woods in 1944. Different aspects of the system died at different times. And the basic principles of international financial cooperation on which the Bretton Woods sys­ tem was based never died at all. There is general agreement that the final
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