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Read the Full PDF Job Name:2222148 Date:15-04-16 PDF Page:2222148pbc.p1.pdf Color: Cyan Magenta Yellow Black THE U.S. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE DOLLAR By Raymond F. Mikesell he international role of the dollar is based on the world demand T for liquid dollar assets. Yet, paradoxically, according to one of the officially recognized measures of the external position of the United States, an increase in foreign holdings of u.s. dollars is re­ garded as contributing to a balance-of-payments deficit There is obviously something wrong with our international accounting con­ cepts when the international significance and the utility of the dollar grow stronger while the U.S. balance-of-payments position becomes weaker. This study concentrates on the nature and behavior of the foreign demand for liquid dollar assets. These assets are not confined to foreign holdings of liquid assets in the United States. In fact, with the development of the Eurodollar market the volume of dollar­ denominated deposits in commercial banks outside the United States is larger than the foreign holdings of deposits in U.S. banks. These foreign liquid dollar assets generated by the Eurodollar market play an important role in international financial transactions, the nature and consequences of which are examined in this study. In the study Dr. Mikesell examines the problem of U.S. balance­ of-payments policy in light of the current conflict between those economists and public officials who favor an international monetary order based on the international control of the volume of reserves on the one hand, and those American economists identified with the international financial intermediation hypothesis who regard the adop­ tion of any balance-of-payments target by the U.S. government as an interference with the proper functioning of the United States as the world's banker on the other. The author recognizes the merits of both positions and admits that there is no wholly satisfactory way of reconciling them under a system of fixed exchange rates. However, if a policy of adherence to a system of control of the volume of international monetary reserves by the International Monetary Fund is pursued and if the system should require con­ straints on the U.S. balance of payments, U.S. balance-of-payments policy should be based on a concept of equilibrium which is more meaningful than either the official reserve balance or the liquidity balance concepts. Regardless of what balance-of-payments policy the United States decides to pursue it is recommended that this country adopt an official concept of external equilibrium along the lines of the basic transactions balance which was employed by the U.S. Department of Commerce from 1943 until 1952. The basic transactions balance concept reflects changes in the net international liquidity position of the United States as opposed to the liquidity balance concept which reflects changes in U.S. gross liquid liabilities to foreigners plus the change in U.S. official reserves. The author has suggested a modified basic balance approach which provides for a broader concept of both U.S. liquid liabilities to foreigners and U.S. liquid claims on foreigners. In the concluding chapter Dr. Mikesell offers some speculations regarding how the United States might continue to function as the world's banker over the next few years while continuing to maintain a small current account surplus. What would be required is both unsatisfactory and costly but in the United States at least, domestic objectives determine the policies which shape the balance of pay­ ments; international financial policies accommodate to, but have little influence over, basic international transactions. THE Uo So BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE DOLLAR By Raymond F. Mikesell July 1970 PUBLISHED AND DISTRIBUTED BY THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH WASHINGTON, D.C. 20036 Distributed to the Trade by National Book Network, 15200 NBN Way, Blue Ridge Summit, PA 17214. To order call toll free 1-800-462-6420 or 1-717-794-3800. For all other inquiries please contact the AEI Press, 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 or call 1-800-862-5801. The author is W. E. Miner Professor of Economics at the Univer­ sity of Oregon. He has also taught at the University of Virginia, the National War College, and the Graduate Institute of International Studies in Geneva, Switzerland. He has held a number of positions and consultantships with U.S. government and international agencies, including the U.S. Treasury Department, Department of State, Department of Commerce, the Council of Economic Advisers, the White House, the Agency for International Development, the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank, and the Organization of American States. He was an adviser to the U.S. delegation at the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944 and at the UNCTAD Conference in Geneva in 1964. He is the author of a number of books on inter­ national financial problems including Foreign Exchange in the Post­ War World, 1954; U.S. Private and Government Investment Abroad, 1962; Public International Lending for Development, 1966; The Economics of Foreign Aid, 1968; and Financing World Trade, 1969. © 1970 American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 1200 17th Street, N.W., Washington, D. C. 20036. All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions. Library of Congress Catalog No. 78-129522 Price: $2.00 AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE For Public Policy Research The AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH, established in 1943, is a nonpartisan research and educational organization which studies national policy problems. Institute publications take two major forms: 1. LEGISLATIVE AND SPECIAL ANALYSES-factual analyses of cur­ rent legislative proposals and other public policy issues before the Congress prepared with the help of recognized experts in the academic world and in the fields of law and government. A typical analysis features: (1) pertinent background, (2) a digest of significant elements, and (3) a discussion, pro and con, of the issues. The reports reflect no policy position in favor of or against specific proposals. 2. LONG-RANGE STUDIEs-basic studies of major national prob­ lems of significance for public policy. The Institute, with the counsel of its Advisory Board, utilizes the services of competent scholars, but the opinions expressed are those of the authors and represent no policy position on the part of the Institute. ADVISORY BOARD PAUL W. MCCRACKEN, Chairman * Edmund Ezra Day University Professor of Business Administration, University of Michigan KARL BRANDT Loy W. HENDERSON Professor of Economic Policy (Emeritus) Professor of Foreign Relations Stanford University American University R. H. COASE GEORGE LENCZOWSKI Professor of Economics Professor of Political Science University of Chicago University of California, Berkeley MILTON FRIEDMAN FELIX MORLEY Paul S. Russell Distinguished Editor and Author Service Professor of Economics University of Chicago STANLEY PARRY Professor of Politics GOTTFRIED HABERLER University of Dallas Galen L. Stone Professor of International Trade E. BLYTHE STASON Harvard University Dean Emeritus, Law School University of Michigan C. LOWELL HARRISS Professor of Economics GEORGE E. TAYLOR Columbia University Professor of Far Eastern History and Politics, Far Eastern & Russian Institute * On leave for government service University of Washington OFFICERS Chairman CARL N. JACOBS Vice Chairmen HENRY T. BODMAN H.C.LuMB HERMAN J. SCHMIDT President WILLIAM J. BAROODY Treasurer WILLIAM G. MCCLINTOCK TRUSTEES HENRY W. BALGOOYEN WILLIAM L. MCGRATH DAVID C. BEVAN GEORGE P. MACNICHOL, JR.. HENRY T. BODMAN ALLEN D. MARSHALL JOHN MARSHALL BRILEY PAUL A. MILLER JOHN F. BURDITT DON G. MITCHELL FREDERICK J. CLOSE CHARLES MOELLER, JR. RICHARD J. FARRELL DILLARD MUNFORD DEAN FITE ROBERT W. MURPHY W ALTER HARNISCHFEGER J.\MES E. O'BRIEN JOHN B. HOLLISTER HARVEY PETERS EDWIN HYDE H. LADD PLUMLEY CARL N. JACOBS EDMUND W. PUGH JAMES S. KEMPER, JR. PmLIP A. RAY RAYMOND S. LIVINGSTONE W. F. ROCKWELL, JR. H.C.LuMB HERMAN J. SCHMIDT WILLIAM G. MCCLINTOCK R. C. TYSON THOMAS F. JOHNSON JOSEPH G. BUTTS Director of Research Director of Legislative Analysis EARL H. VOSS Director of International Studies AUTHOR'S PREFACE I ntemational financial developments have not only been occurring so rapidly as to confound even the specialists in the field, but they have been full of surprises. The U.S. dollar has exhibited strength at a time when according to traditional balance-of-payments measures it should have been weak. Expected quarterly deficits turn out to be surpluses as a consequence of year-end window dressing. And the two official measures of U.S. international balance give con­ tradictory testimony on the state of our external financial health. Government officials and business and academic economists all agree that our present official measures of changes in the external position of the United States are inadequate and misleading. The growth of the Eurodollar market has obscured the effective ownership of liquid dollar assets by foreigners and a large portion of U.S. short-term international capital movements takes the form of internal accounting entries on the books of American banks with foreign branches. Throughout the 1960s there was a strong movement for inter­ national monetary reform leading to one major innovation, the system of Special Drawing Rights in the International Monetary Fund. But the movement for reform is far from over. Further changes in the international monetary order, whether they take the form of flexible exchange rates or new sources of international liquidity should be based on an adequate understanding of recent international monetary developments and particularly of the international role of the dollar. The purpose of this study is to provide the factual and analytical background for understanding and appraising recent developments in U.S. international financial relations and policies.
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