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A Discussion with Nobel Laureate Michael Spence

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A Discussion with Nobel Laureate Michael Spence No. 11 IMD Faculty Jean-Pierre Lehmann A Discussion with Professor of International Political Nobel Laureate Michael Spence Economy, Founder of the Evian Group & Senior Fellow at the Fung Global Institute of modern information economics. He identified an important form of adjustment by Guest Contributor Michael Spence individual market participants, where the Professor of Economics at the better informed take costly actions in an Stern School of Business at New attempt to improve their market outcomes by York University, Professor credibly transmitting information to the poorly Emeritus of Management in the informed. Spence demonstrated when such Graduate School of Business at 1 Stanford University, a Senior signaling will actually work.” Fellow of the Hoover Institution at Stanford and a Distinguished In his opening remarks, IMD Professor Jean- Chair of The Commission on Growth Visiting Fellow of the Council on Pierre Lehmann described Spence as a rare Foreign Relations and Chair of and Development, 2006–2010 breed – a “modest economist” who has the Academic Board of the Fung In 2006 the Commission on Growth and Global Institute. demonstrated that economics originated in Development was formed to bring together moral philosophy, prior to its shift into a more Research & leading practitioners across sectors – from mathematics-focused discipline. Among Development government, business and policymaking – Michelle Noguchi Spence’s many career accomplishments, mostly from the developing world. The Professor Lehmann detailed two that have Commission’s goal was to understand the distinguished him and provide a backdrop to policies and strategies that enable rapid his approach to world economics order in The On 30 January 2012 The and sustained economic growth and Next Convergence. Evian Group @ IMD poverty reduction. In The Growth Report: welcomed Nobel Laureate Strategies for Sustained Growth and Michael Spence for an The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Inclusive Development, the Commission evening discussion about Economic Sciences in Memory of was successful in detailing that fast, his recently released book, Alfred Nobel, 2001 The Next Convergence. IMD sustained growth is alumni, Corporate Learning In 2001 the Royal Swedish Academy of both possible and Network members and PED Sciences awarded the Bank of Sweden’s predictable. program participants joined Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Developing countries The Evian Group network to Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel jointly to that combine the learn from Spence’s far- George A. Akerlof, University of California at right approach reaching and incisive Berkeley, A. Michael Spence, Stanford (incentives, public perspectives on “the future University, and Joseph E. Stiglitz, Columbia of economic growth in a investment and University, USA “for their analyses of markets multispeed world.” The diversification) with with asymmetric information.” In summary, following morning, Spence strong leadership “this work defined how many markets are presented and met with IMD can and do leverage opportunities that the characterized by asymmetric information, i.e. MBA students as part of The global economy affords. These findings laid one side of the market having better Evian Group’s Annual MBA the foundation for Spence’s book The Next information than the other, e.g. borrowers Roundtable, which this year Convergence: The Future of Economic focused on “equity and knowing more than lenders about their Growth in a Multispeed World. sustainability” and engaged repayment prospects, managers and boards a host of world-renowned knowing more than shareholders about the experts to discuss the firm’s profitability, and prospective clients 1 “The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic challenges globalization knowing more than insurance companies presents, from poverty to Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2001.” about their accident risk. Spence laid the gender to climate change. Nobelprize.org, foundation for a general theory of markets <www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laure with asymmetric information, forming the core ates/2001/#> (accessed 27 March 2012). © 2012 IMD – International Institute for Management Development. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means without the permission of IMD. Needless to say, the scale and velocity of The Next Convergence? What is it? this growth have dramatic impact, especially on the poor. “Growth with a The recent period of growth in developing reasonably inclusive pattern of the countries has resulted in their distribution of benefits is a potent weapon convergence with established countries. in reducing poverty.”2 Spence details how the global economy will evolve over the next fifty years, and puts into perspective how economic Why have these countries growth can be sustained in both achieved sustained growth? advanced and developing countries, thus While Spence outlined a number of reshaping the world economy and criteria, he profiled the following during favorably benefitting the many versus the his talk: few. Post World War II, a reversal of the past 200 years of divergence has 1. Openness to the global economy occurred. The world is now almost 2. Inclusiveness and equity midway through a century of convergence, and Spence provides a 3. Leadership, especially at the national comprehensive “tour of critical parts of level. the world economy,” detailing the scale and complexity of this redefining period. Openness to the global economy – critical! Where has growth been As Spence explained, there are “no achieved? Michael Spence has barriers or market limits for a small, poor Out of about 180 countries in the world, country.” When supported by flows in written an intelligent, rational and humane book 13 have grown at an average rate of 7% capital, transfers of knowledge and about the great economic or more for 25 years. While not a long technology, a nation creates the capacity event of our era: list, this is a remarkable achievement that for growth. However, this is still only one convergence, or the rapid rise of once poor would not have been thought possible 50 of several requirements for creating and countries. Anyone seeking years ago. sustaining growth. a common-sense guide to the transformation under way need look no further. Martin Wolf, “Review: The Next Convergence.” FT.com, 20 June 2011. ‡ *Economies that have †GDP growth of 7% In constant US dollars of 2000. reached industrialized per year or more. countries’ per capita income levels. Source: World Bank. World Development 2 Spence, Michael, The Next Convergence: Indicators The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World. New York, NY: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011, p. 55. Page 2 www.imd.org insights@IMD Inclusiveness and equity environment or trust and governance will This combination, according to Spence, erode quickly. is “not a nice add on, but inherently important to growth strategy. If you goof A Moral Community of Concern on this one, you won’t grow.” – Our Current Dilemma Inclusiveness in economics originated in In The Growth Report, Spence attempts India, but it is now broadly used and to answer the key question: “Who do I relates to how growth is distributed. The care about? My immediate family, my notion of inclusive growth is widely extended family, neighborhood, region, debated and a single definition does not the world?” In doing so, he examines the exist. For Spence, it means “that people nature of equity and equality between should not be left out or excluded from nations, pinpointing both the philosophical the opportunities created by growth, and and technical challenges arising from there should be no limits to the amount of global policy instruments on inequality in income and access to basic 4 3 responsibility. services that are tolerable.” In the absence of inclusiveness and in We chose to focus on Convergence – “The rest of the world extremes of inequality, societal and growth because we think has joined the party!” political challenges to growth will emerge. that it is a necessary Having now reviewed what has passed, condition for the Leadership achievement of a wide Spence turns his attention to the future. range of objectives that Spence stressed, “Having a vision and Will this fast growth continue and what is people and societies care being able to build consensus is critical it reliant on? For the world economy to about. One of them is again.” Top leadership at the national expand and grow in a more equitable obviously poverty reduction, but there are level, who recognize that growth will take way, he highlights three categories of even deeper ones. Health, compromise and sacrifice, is key during concerns – instability and volatility, productive employment, the the start-up phase. Once growth economy and demand, and the tension opportunity to be creative, strategies begin to gain traction and lead between nations and the globe (part to all kinds of things that to successes, effective governance and whole), especially as they relate to really matter to people seem to depend heavily on strong institutional infrastructures need to energy, environment, food and industrial the availability of resources be built up over time. As this occurs, top composition. He illustrates these and income, so that they leadership are on the hook, having to learn, concerns by profiling three dominant don’t spend most of their make mistakes and evolve in a dynamic economies – China, India and Brazil. time
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