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Developing Country Growth and the Changing Structure and Challenges in the Global Economy

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Developing Country Growth and the Changing Structure and Challenges in the Global Economy DEVELOPING COUNTRY GROWTH AND THE CHANGING STRUCTURE AND CHALLENGES IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY DRAFT Professor Michael Spence, Professor David Brady, Professor Peter Henry Office: Kaufman Management Center: Economics, 7th Floor, 7-83 Email: [email protected] +1 917 678 1920 Professor Peter Henry Dean’s Office [email protected] Professor David Brady Office: Kaufman Management Center: Economics, 7th Floor, 7-83 [email protected] TEACHING FELLOW TBD INTRODUCTORY NOTE The course this year is the same length as other courses in terms of number of classes but is compressed into half the number of weeks, with two classes on Tuesday and Thursday in the weeks when the classes meet. This is the format we used last year. We realize this is not ideal as it does not mesh well with the regular schedules, but given the commitments of each of us, it was the only way to do it. The course meets on Tuesday and Thursday in the following weeks, identified by the Tuesday/Thursday dates. Oct 4,6 Spence Oct 11,13 Spence Oct 25,27 Spence Nov 1,3 Henry Nov 8,10 Brady Dec 6 All You will have a little over three weeks to prepare the final presentation and paper. The presentations will be on Dec 6 to the entire class. Based on past experience, this last class will be long, based on past experience. We will aim to start promptly at 6pm and continue until we are finished. So please hold that entire evening for your presentations. We have experimented with alternatives in the past by splitting this up. But the effect is to have only some of the class present for some of the presentations and it does not work very well. There may be some additions and a few changes to the syllabus as we go through the course. 1 CONTENT OF THE COURSE The first part of the course deals mainly with developing country growth. Based on experience and research, we will attempt to identify key ingredients in developing country growth. For this we will need to spend a little time on where growth comes from in general, and how it is in various ways constrained. With this framework we will talk about what impedes growth. The second section of the course deals with developing countries in the past ten years including five years of crisis and post crisis adaptation to imbalances, attempted recoveries and slower than normal growth in the advanced or industrialized countries. In this section we will deal with middle income transitions (roughly the challenge of sustaining growth) when per capita incomes reach the 4000- 10000 dollar range. We will talk about China’s crucial middle income transition which is underway and spend some time on India’s high growth, its growth slowdown and the issues associated with reversing recent trends. The third section will focus on issues of structural change, adverse distributional trends and growth challenges in developed countries that are related in part to the rising size, impact, and systemic importance of the developing countries, as well as to important trends in technology. We will also identify and discuss some of the new challenges associated with completing the second half of the century of convergence that began after World War II when significant growth in developing countries began for the first time. The fourth section of the course lead by Professor David Brady will deal with, leadership, governance, and political economy. It will focus on the key role of leadership in shifting the expectations, behavior and dynamics associated with a shift from a no growth or low growth to a high growth equilibrium. It will also discuss how economic development and political structures evolve together. And it will deal with important distributional and equity issues and their interaction with political systems and policy choices. The fifth section of the course, with Professor Peter Henry taking the lead role will deal with complex issues associated with financial sector openness, with the importance of strategy and policy choices in relation to institutional development, and with lessons of general applicability (including to advanced countries) of the experiences of growth or its absence in developing country. This last is the subject of his recent book, Turnaround: Third World Lessons for First World Growth, Basic Books, March 2013. ASSIGNMENTS AND REQUIREMENTS 1. Try to the readings prior to class. We can’t cover them all but they are useful background, and will make the discussion more lively. Participate in class discussion. 2. Be prepared to lead the discussion on some aspect of the readings during class. 3. There will be a short written assignment in the second half of the course (a page or two), on the subject of what causes governments to fail to act in cases when the range of reasonable policy choices is relatively obvious and agreed on. This assignment will be done in the same groups as the final paper and presentation (see item 6) 4. For the end of the course: in groups of 5 or 6 students, prepare a concise paper (between 8 and 10 pages using double-space) analyzing some issue relevant to the course. Each group 2 will also prepare a power point presentation summarizing the key points and present the analysis a the final class on Dec 10th. 5. The focus can be policy (domestic or international), investment, multinational business, entrepreneurship (private and social), or Civil Society Organization strategy and impact. In other words it is wide open. I will say more about this in class. Preparation for this should start fairly early and include a visit with me and with the TF to get our thoughts and input. The TF will help you get organized into groups. I suggest that we aim to have the groups formed and the topics set by the end of the third week of October (at the class of Oct 22th the groups should already be decided) so that you have a month and a bit to work together on the project. 6. I will read and grade the papers and send back comments after the end of the course. Class Structure We will meet at 6 pm and continue (with a break) to 9 pm or whenever we run out of gas. Generally we will have a presentation from Professors Spence, Brady or Henry and sometimes an outside guest speaker, a break, and then a discussion and debate. Notwithstanding the presentation of some ideas by me or Professors Henry and Brady, or a guest, we encourage and enjoy discussion throughout the class. It is more fun, interesting and engaging that way. We will have some guests – see Course Meetings and Topics. I am being opportunistic about this so we may have some additions, and I may juggle the order of the material. Additional Research Seminar (Optional) The TF may offer to teach a session on the standard models of Growth Theory and another one on STATA programming and quantitative analysis (correlation vs. causation, key statistics, regression analysis…). The dates for those sessions as well as the topics to be covered depend on student’s interests and will be determined after discussion with the class, early in the course. Office Hours Given schedules, it is probably best to arrange to see us by sending an email and scheduling a time. For me, the best times are the Tuesday- Thursday of the weeks in which I am here for the class. 3 Course Meetings and Topics Oct 4: The Evolving Structure of the Global Economy & Sustained High Growth in Developing Countries Readings: . Commission on Growth and Development. (2008). The Growth Report: Strategies For Sustained Growth And Inclusive Development. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The Growth Report . Spence, Michael, The Next Convergence: The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World. Preface, Introduction, Chapters 1-12 . Capital in the Twenty First Century, Thomas Piketty, March 2014, Introduction, chapters 1 and 2 . Review global economic and demographic data by country looking at poverty levels, GDP, per capita GDP, population, and Gini coefficients (a standard measure of income inequality). For example: Per capita GDP: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD GDP: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD Population: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL Gini: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI Oct 6: 6:00-7:30 Sustained Growth in Developing Countries Challenging Policy Areas in Growth Strategies Readings: . Spence, The Next Convergence, chapters 13-29 7:30-8:30 Possible Guest Brief Bio Readings: forthcoming Oct 11: 6:00 - 9:00 Spence: Continuation of Developing Country Growth Dynamics and Issue Readings: . Post Crisis Growth in Developing Countries (Commission on Growth and Development – Special Report) . “Can the Emerging Economies Save the Global Economy” (Mohamed El-Erian and Michael Spence) in Project Syndicate 4 http://www.project- syndicate.org/series/the_new_wealth_of_nations/description?page=2&nipp=10 October 13: Middle Income Transitions China and India Readings: Medium and Long-term Development and Transformation of the Chinese Economy: The Synthesis Report, prepared by Edwin Lim, Ian Porter, Paul Romer and Michael Spence China 2030: Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative High Income Society, The World Bank and the Development Research Center of the State Council, PRC, 2012 “Increasing the Proportion of Middle-Income Earners and Enlarging the Domestic Market:The Basic Logic of the Proposal for the 12th Five-year Plan,” Liu He The Next Convergence, Spence, Chapters 30-41 Observation: By October 22 you should have already formed your group and communicated it to the TF.
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