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K Kan Nsai I in Th He a Asia Paci Ific ISBN 978-4-87769-650-4 APIR Published by Asia Pacific Institute of Research Kansai Kansai Kansai iin the Asia Pacific in in Kansai Toward a New Growth Paradigm the the AsiaAsia Pacific 財団法人 Pacific 関西社会経済研究所 as a Regional Hub Kyushu Shinkansen Tokyo Skytree Photo provided by West Japan Railway Co., Ltd. Photo provided by Panasonic Corporation Supported by Tokyo-Hotaru (東京ホタル®) Executive Committee Shooting Date: May 6th, 2012 Asia Pacific Institute of RResearch, Osaka 財団法人 Asia Pacific Institute of Research 関西社会経済研究所 Knowledge Capital Tower C, The Grand Front Osaka, 3-1 Ofuka-chou, Kitaku, Osaka 530-0011 Japan Tel:81-(0)6-6485-7690 Email:[email protected] URL:http://www.apir.or.jp Photo on the cover: Kansai International Airport Photo provided by New Kansai International Airport Co., Ltd. K Kaannssaaii iinn tthhee AAssiiaa PPaacciiffiicc Toward a New Growth Paradigm Asia Pacific Institute of Research, Osaka ISBN 978-4-87769-650-4 Kansai in the Asia Pacific Toward a New Growth Paradigm Copyright ⓒ 2013 by Asia Pacific Institute of Research All rights reserved. Published by Asia Pacific Institute of Research, March 2013. The regional division in this book is as follows unless otherwise noted. Kansai: prefectures of Fukui, Shiga, Kyoto, Osaka, Hyogo, Nara, Wakayama Kanto: prefectures of Ibaraki, Tochigi, Gunma, Saitama, Chiba, Kanagawa, Yamanashi and Tokyo Metropolis Chubu: prefectures of Nagano, Gifu, Shizuoka, Aichi, Mie Japan: all prefectures including Kansai, Kanto and Chubu The abstract maps used herein are for illustration purpose only. They are not taken from official sources and do not necessarily represent territorial claims and boundaries. Message from the Research Director Dr. Hideo Miyahara Currently, the global social order is in a state of major flux due to rapidly changing political and economic situations. The sovereign debt crisis that began in Greece and spread across Europe has engendered instability in world stock and foreign exchange markets. In developing countries, a range of social problems brought on by rapid economic growth have surfaced, resulting in slowdowns in the development of a number of those countries. Developed countries have continued to invest a great deal of time into reforming social infrastructures, including pension and employment schemes, and some have gone into expenditures in order to maintain their current schemes. Meanwhile, the unstable political situations in the Middle East and North Africa are having a considerable impact on the natural resources market. And, Japan is struggling to restore the Tohoku area from damage caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake and is faced with a pressing need for social policy reform. On December 2011, Asia Pacific Institute of Research (APIR) was established to serve as source of intelligent strategies and solutions for the highly diverse Asia- Pacific region. One of the missions of APIR is to discuss desirable partnerships between Japan and Asia-Pacific countries and to contribute through the Kansai Prosperity Plan to the development and implementation of social initiatives. “Kansai in the Asia Pacific” takes as its theme “Toward a New Growth Paradigm” for Asia and Kansai. Working from the perspective of the Asia-Pacific region, it surveys the current situations of Japan and Kansai and discusses new values to be created by Japan in the wake of the Great East Japan Earthquake and suggests strategies for sustainable regional development and for innovative economic initiatives for Kansai. “Kansai in the Asia Pacific” has been published by the newly established APIR and it incorporates a great deal of the knowledge that our institute has accumulated. It is my sincere hope that this publication will be widely read and utilized by individuals who are passionate about building a bright future for Kansai. I want to express my sincere appreciation to the many individuals who have contributed to the editing and publication of this valuable work. TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Message from the Research Director II. Editors & Contributors III. Part I Economic Outlook for the Asia-Pacific Chapter 1 Japan and the Asia Pacific Chapter 2 Vietnam as a “Monozukuri” Partner with Japan Chapter 3 Economic Growth and Energy Infrastructure in Asia Chapter 4 Supply Chains in Asia and the Impact of the 2011 Thailand Floods IV. Part II Prospect and Challenges for the Kansai Economy Chapter 5 Prospects for the Kansai Economy Chapter 6 Investment Strategy in Kansai V. Part III Business Opportunities in Kansai Chapter 7 Smart City and Biomass Energy Chapter 8 Inbound Tourism Chapter 9 Civic Pride in Aqua Metropolis Osaka VI. Special Topics Chapter 10 Japan's Post-Disaster Economic Reconstruction Chapter 11 Nankai-Trough Mega-Earthquake: Projected Economic Damage VII. Statistical Annex VIII. Asia Pacific Institute of Research EDITORS & CONTRIBUTORS Editor in Chief HAYASHI, Toshihiko (Co-director for Research, APIR/Professor, Doshisha University) Associate Editor INADA, Yoshihisa (Co-director for Research, APIR/Professor, Konan University) Contributors HAYASHI, Toshihiko (Co-director for Research, APIR/Professor, Doshisha Chapter 1, 10 University) INADA, Yoshihisa (Co-director for Research, APIR/ Professor, Konan University) Chapter 5 Chapter 1 ONISHI, Yutaka (Professor, Kobe University) OHNO, Izumi (Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies) Chapter 2 YAMAMOTO, Ryuzo (Professor, Fuji Tokoha University) Chapter 3 SUZUKI, Yotaro (Professor, Osaka City University) Chapter 4 IRIE, Hiroaki (Lecturer, Kinki University Department of Junior College) Chapter 5 OGAWA, Kazuo (Professor, Osaka University) Chapter 6 FUJIKAWA, Kiyoshi (Professor, Nagoya University) Chapter 7 MATSUOKA, Kenji (Professor, Ryukoku University) Chapter 7 SHIMODA, Mitsuru (Senior Researcher, Applied Research Institute, Inc) Chapter 7 FUJIMOTO, Takashi (Professor, Osaka University of Economics) Chapter 7 WATANABE, Takatoshi (Professor, Aichi Gakuin University) Chapter 7 TAKABAYASHI, Kikuo (Professor, Kwansei Gakuin University) Chapter 8 HOTTA, Akiko (Assistant Section Chief, Union of Kansai Governments) Chapter 8 KANA, Koichi (Associate Professor, Osaka City University Graduate School) Chapter 9 TAKEDA, Shigeaki (Researcher, Museum of Nature and Human Activities, Hyogo) Chapter 9 HAGIWARA, Taiji (Professor, Kobe University) Chapter 11 MURAKAMI, Kazuma (Senior Researcher, APIR) Chapter 5 OKANO, Mitsuhiro (Researcher, APIR) Chapter 5 HAYASHI, Mampei (Researcher, APIR) Chapter 5, 11 LIU, Yang (Researcher, APIR) Chapter 5 Part I Economic Outlook for the Asia-Pacific Chapter 1 Japan and the Asia Pacific Chapter 2 Vietnam as a “Monozukuri” Partner with Japan Chapter 3 Economic Growth and Energy Infrastructure in Asia Chapter 4 Supply Chains in Asia and the Impact of the 2011 Thailand Floods Kansai in the Asia Pacific Chapter 1 Japan and the Asia Pacific Chapter Japan and the Asia Pacific 1 1. The Asia Pacific region For the purposes of this paper, the "Asia Pacific region" refers collectively to 25 countries and regions that include the 21 member countries and regions of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), three emerging countries in Southeast Asia (Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia), and India. Table 1-1 Countries and regions in the Asia Pacific region * Japan has announced that it will take part in preliminary consultations for joining the TPP negotiations. Note: The table above is as of September 2012. These countries and regions have been chosen based on their present and potential geographical proximity and economic closeness to Japan, but at the same time nearly all of them lie along the "Pacific Ring of Fire," where a large number of volcanic eruptions and interplate earthquakes occur. Kansai in the Asia Pacific - 2 - Japan and the Asia Pacific Chapter 1 This region has witnessed the birth of numerous economic cooperation arrangements, including the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN, established in 1967), the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC, an unofficial forum launched in 1989), the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA, went into effect in 1994), and a proposed Free Trade Agreement among China, Japan, and Korea. Due to differences in the levels of economic development among Southeast Asian countries and the diverse nature of their political systems, ethnicities, cultures, religions, etc., it was once considered difficult for such nations to form regional partnerships like the European Union (EU); however, the ongoing regional economic growth driven by rapid development of the Chinese economy is providing momentum for such partnerships. 2. TPP or ASEAN Plus Three? Discussions about the framework of economic cooperation in the Pacific Rim region involve two key considerations. The first thing that must be considered is the range of attitudes toward multilateral trade negotiations. For such negotiations to be successful, it is important that they not only benefit individual countries involved, but also promote common interests, such as international peace, democracy, security, and economic stability. However, when we compare the current points of contention involving frameworks of negotiations for economic cooperation, i.e., the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and ASEAN Plus Three, we find that the two have very different perceptions of "common interests.” The selection of one over the other would thus virtually represent a decision as to what kind of world Japan would like to see going forward. The second consideration that must be made is a determination of the limits
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