Aberdeen City Strategic Assessment 2016 C ONTENTS Introduction .............................................................................................................. 3 Understanding Aberdeen ........................................................................................ 5 Executive Summary ............................................................................................... 13 Wealthier & Fairer .......................................................................................... 13 Smarter .......................................................................................................... 15 Healthier ........................................................................................................ 17 Safer & Stronger ............................................................................................ 21 Greener ......................................................................................................... 23 Core Theme – Inequalities .................................................................................... 25 Wealthier & Fairer Aberdeen ................................................................................. 33 Smarter Aberdeen .................................................................................................. 56 Healthier Aberdeen ................................................................................................ 80 Safer & Stronger Aberdeen ................................................................................. 120 Greener Aberdeen ................................................................................................ 143 Reference .............................................................................................................. 158 Community Planning Aberdeen Strategic Assessment 2016 Page 2 INTRODUCTION This Strategic Assessment has been produced on behalf of Community Planning Aberdeen. With a continuum of fiscal austerity, coupled with a review and change at national and local level, it is hoped that this document will provide a robust evidence base on which to base the refreshed Single Outcome Agreement. The Strategic Assessment looks at past and current trends across a wide range of community planning themes. It also considers emerging issues and areas of concern for Aberdeen City. The overall aim of the Strategic Assessment is to identify, assess and thereafter allow the Community Planning Partnership to undertake evidence-based prioritisation and planning for the forthcoming years. In 2011, the Christie Commission outlined recommendations for the future delivery of public services in Scotland. The commission recognised that a significant proportion of public services spending could be saved if resources were shifted upstream. A shift to more preventative work could, and should, eradicate duplication and waste, reduce the demand placed on public services in the long term, and reduce inequalities. The Commission also recommended that greater integration of public services is required. Partnership working is already well established in Aberdeen City through a number of thematic and multi-lateral groups, but more needs to be done to join up the working of the various groups. Services must be designed with and for the people and communities that we serve. It makes sense to put services where they are needed most and where people have the most difficulty accessing those services. SCOPE & METHODOLOGY In order to capture the wide range of information that falls within the remit of Community Planning Aberdeen, a decision was taken to broadly categorise information into the five National Objectives; Wealthier & Fairer, Smarter, Healthier, Safer & Stronger, and Greener. During the data gathering process, inequalities emerged as a core theme throughout. A data group, with representation from all partner agencies, was established and data sources identified. It was agreed that where possible, and to assist with locality planning, data would be gathered at an intermediate zone level. Where this was not possible, the lowest level of data was gathered, which was usually city-wide. Each chapter of the Strategic Assessment gives an overview, looks at the current trends and scopes potential issues that are likely to have an impact on future service delivery. Community Planning Aberdeen Strategic Assessment 2016 Page 3 Recommendations have not been included in the document, as it is the intent that Community Planning Partners will consider the evidence presented in the Strategic Assessment and thereafter action plans will be produced that will set out how the partnership will address identified priorities. WHAT HAPPENS NEXT? On 16th March 2016, a development day was held at Sir Duncan Rice Library, University of Aberdeen, to which all Community Planning Partners and other stakeholders were invited. The day was used to present findings from the Strategic Assessment and to identify priorities for Community Planning Aberdeen for the forthcoming years. The workshop was facilitated by colleagues from the Improvement Service. The overall focus of the Community Planning Partnership must be to tackle inequalities and reduce poverty. THANKS Many thanks to all partners who supplied data and other information required in order to make this document as comprehensive and robust as possible. Acknowledgements to all members of the Data Gathering Group for their data gathering, analysis, advice and feedback throughout this process. CONTACT For further information please contact: Claire Robertson Senior Community Planning Analyst Aberdeen City Council Marischal College Broad Street Aberdeen AB10 1AB [email protected] 01224 523960 Community Planning Aberdeen Strategic Assessment 2016 Page 4 UNDERSTANDING ABERDEEN Aberdeen City has undergone unprecedented changes over the past decade in demography, landscape and economy. These changes have presented challenges and opportunities for our communities and for the public services that operate within and deliver services to these communities. Nicknamed ‘The Granite City’ Aberdeen found fame for its locally quarried granite stone, but latterly industry in the city has been dominated by the oil and gas sector. The rapid development in the city has resulted in considerable pressure on infrastructure in the city, and in some areas infrastructure has failed to keep pace. Aberdeen International Airport is the gateway to Europe’s energy capital, and is the world’s busiest commercial heliport, predominantly servicing the North Sea oil and gas industry. The City hosts Offshore Europe every two years, Europe’s leading oil and gas exploration and production exhibition and conference. The next Offshore Europe event will be held from 5th to 8th September 2017. Despite the drop in oil prices and the downturn in the local economy, the 2015 event attracted the second largest number of attendees. Energetica is a world class development corridor stretching for over 30 miles between Aberdeen and Peterhead. The development offers investment and growth opportunities to energy, engineering and technology organisations, and aims to make the North East of Scotland the location of choice for inward investment. Aberdeen City is home to two Universities, The University of Aberdeen and Robert Gordon University and between them and North East Scotland College contribute hundreds of millions to the local economy each year and provide students and local communities with some of the best facilities in the UK. The 2014 Good Growth for Cities index, by PriceWaterhouseCooper, named Aberdeen as the best city in Scotland in which to live and work, and the second top city in the UK. DEMOGRAPHY Demographic changes include a population that is living longer, low birth rates, changing family structures and high levels of inward migration. On the 30th June 2014, the estimated population of Aberdeen City was 228,990. This accounts for almost 4.3% of the total population of Scotland, and is the eighth highest population total in the country, out of the 32 Scottish Local Authorities. Over the longer period, the population of the city has fluctuated, however for the past decade there has been a consistent annual increase, and the population of the city is now at its highest level. Community Planning Aberdeen Strategic Assessment 2016 Page 5 Population of Aberdeen City, 1984 - 2014 235,000 230,000 225,000 220,000 215,000 210,000 Population 205,000 200,000 195,000 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Year Source: National Records of Scotland, Mid-year population estimates: Scotland and its Council areas by single year of age and sex: 1984 As well as the increase in the population, there has been a shift in the make-up of the city’s population. In 1984, 18.7% of the population of Aberdeen City was aged under 16; in 2014, that proportion has fallen to 14.7%. Conversely, the working age population of the city has grown during that time, and now makes up 70.4% of the city’s total population – up from 67.1% in 1984. Population of Aberdeen City, 1984 - 2014 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 Children (0-15) Working age (16 - 64) Pensionable age (65+) Source: National Records of Scotland, Mid-year population estimates: Scotland and its Council areas by single year of age and sex: 1984 Over the past five years, population growth has been greatest in Kingswells / Sheddocksley ward, followed by Airyhall / Broomhill / Garthdee and