statistical society of australia incorporated newsletter

November 2005 Number 113

Registered by Australia Post Publication No. NBH3503 issn 0314-6820 75 years of statisticians in CSIRO

methods to agricultural research. Her projects included control of oriental peach moths and blowflies, work on plant diseases and noxious weeds, and studies of the effects of supplements on sheep. “Betty Allan’s statistical work pushed CSIR’s agricultural science to new heights – training scientists, designing reliable experiments and extracting important information,” said Dr Murray Cameron, chief of CSIRO Mathematical and Information Sciences. “After she retired in 1940 following her marriage, CSIRO formally established a Biometrics Section, forerunner to the present-day CSIRO Mathematical and Information Sciences.”

Dinner Speakers Terry Speed (left) and John Field (right) with Murray Cameron (centre), Chief of CSIRO Mathematical and Information Sciences

At a dinner in Canberra on 27 September 2005, CSIRO paid tribute to the seventy fifth anniversary of the appointment of its first statistician, Frances Elizabeth “Betty” Allan. The dinner featured talks by John Field of BiometricsSA on the life of Betty Allan, and Terry Speed of WEHI and UC Berkeley on the expansive topic “Mathematics, Statistics, Biology: Past, Present and Future”. Born in 1905, Betty Allan studied pure and mixed mathematics at Melbourne University, completing both bachelors and masters degrees and winning scholarships and honours throughout. In 1928 she took up a CSIR studentship for “the study of statistical methods applied to agriculture”, studying at Newnham College, Cambridge and then working at Rothamsted Experimental Station with RA Fisher. Fisher described her as Betty Allen having “a rare gift for first-class mathematics”. On 29 September 1930, Betty Allan was appointed to the then- More information: www.cmis.csiro.au/stats75 CSIR Division of Plant Industry in Canberra to apply statistical Andrea Mettenmeyer In this issue

Data Linkage Symposium ...... 2 President’s Corner ...... 5 Three Doors ...... 10 SBI Conference ...... 3 Bayes for Beginners Workshop ...... 6 Martin Esteban Donadio 1973-2005 .....12 Editorial ...... 4 Named Lectures ...... 9 Branch Reports ...... 14 Symposium on data linkage

On Tuesday 9 September 2005 a dynamic linked chain of health events, chance?’, Rose Karmel of the Australian ‘Symposium on Data Linkage’ was held ordered by date. Each linked chain can Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) at the Australian National University be broken at any point and new links explored this problem in the context (ANU) in Canberra. The event was can be inserted or existing links deleted of linking hospital records for persons organised by the Canberra Branch of as new information becomes available. 65 and over with residential aged care the SSAI and the School of Finance Chains can be extended further into the records. The interface between acute and Applied Statistics, ANU. About 75 future or the past as new health events hospital care and residential aged care persons from all over Australia, and are discovered. The WADLS now covers has long been recognised as an important one from New Zealand, came together health services for around 1.7 million issue in aged care services research. If to participate in the symposium which individuals, making it one of the world’s records can be matched using only date ran all day and involved eight speakers. largest and most comprehensive linked of birth, gender, region and relevant Data linkage is a rapidly growing area in data resources. Around 250 research event dates, social researchers can begin statistics and involves combining two or papers have been published based on to piece together patterns of movement more sets of data so as to maximise the the WADLS. Di, whose talk was titled between hospital and aged care services. use of the available information. ‘WA Data Linkage System’ presented Rose used Poisson models and some After an introduction by Glenys a summary of the system design and simplifying assumptions on birthday Bishop, the first speaker, Agnes Walker development, contributing data sources distributions to estimate the probability of the National Centre for Epidemiology and a summary of the research outputs of a chance match, and the likely false and Population Health (NCEPH) at ANU generated over the WADLS’s 10 year match rate. She showed that, under gave a talk titled ‘Building datasets using history. Chris, whose talk was titled reasonable assumptions, when records many sources: What are researchers ‘National data linkage with privacy are blocked by region, date of birth and allowed – and not allowed – to do in protection’ then elaborated on some sex, the Australian overall false rate is Australia and overseas?’. Agnes noted aspects of the WADLS, in particular likely to be very low, so that a no-name that to address a range of policy-relevant privacy issues, comparison with similar matching strategy is feasible. In a joint issues in research projects a single data systems abroad, and the additional project with the Western Australian Data source is rarely sufficient. However use value provided by incorporating links Linkage Unit (WA DLU), Rose is currently of multiple data sources, while often to the Commonwealth MBS, PBS and engaged in comparing links established fraught with difficulty, can lead to Aged Care datasets. At the end of the between hospital and residential aged superior results if researchers persevere Symposium, Di also presented a short care records using her no-name strategy with imputation or statistical matching. informational DVD on the WADLS. with name-based links obtained by the The difficulty in Australia has arisen, in Peter Christen of the Department WA DLU where names and addresses part, from the inability to use a unique of Computer Science at ANU gave an were available in both sets of records for person identifier to link various data impressive talk on ‘Recent developments the linkage process. collections, for example the Medicare card in data linkage technologies’. He began After lunch, Bruce Fraser of the number to link various administrative with a brief historical tour of data ABS presented a talk titled ‘Gaining health datasets. In some other countries, linkage, from the early seminal thinking community acceptance for data such as in Scandinavia, datasets in of Fellegi and Sunter nearly 40 years linking projects’, in which he gave which all government information has ago, to the modern day approaches a compelling case for making privacy been directly linked across individuals of machine learning and attribute and confidentiality management visible through a unique identifier are available recognition models. Hidden Markov to key stakeholders, and also to the to researchers. Agnes presented examples models, originally developed for speech community. He has witnessed a certain from her own research in which the use pattern recognition, are among the level of mistrust expressed in the media of imputation and statistical matching techniques being used for segmenting and echoed in the public regarding across several data sources has led to names and addresses into fields for data initiatives that might make it easier to link superior results. One involved the cleaning and standardisation. Blocking, records and build integrated information use of Australian Bureau of Statistics an old technique used in data linkage systems. He outlined information privacy (ABS) survey data in combination with for reducing the number of candidate principles that should be considered administrative Pharmaceutical Benefits matches, is being replaced by more before undertaking research involving Scheme (PBS) data to show that PBS sophisticated techniques, such as ‘fuzzy’ linking records. Bruce urged all of us medicine costs were a considerably blocking and sorted neighbourhood as researchers to carefully weigh the greater financial burden for Australia’s approaches. Linking records using potential benefits of public health and poorer families then for the rest of the probabilistic matching typically classifies welfare research against the potential population. potential matches into three categories: risks to privacy, to identify clear research The second presentation, given by matches, non-matches and possible objectives likely to serve the public Di Rosman of the WA Department of matches. Resolution of the possible interest, to engage at an early stage with Health and Chris Kelman of NCEPH matches is typically done through clerical key stakeholders, and to be prepared to and ANU, was on the topic of the review; however, this can be time- adopt practices which ensure that the Western Australian Data Linkage System consuming and error-prone. More details privacy of individuals is not breached. (WADLS). This System links seven core can be found at http://datamining.anu. Christine O’Keefe of Mathematical WA population health datasets with edu.au/linkage.html and Information Sciences at CSIRO next more than 12 clinical and health service How well can one expect to match presented a talk titled the ‘Queensland data sets. Recently, Commonwealth records when names and addresses Linked Data Set (QLDS) project: A data Medicare Benefits Scheme (MBS), PBS are not available on one or both sets of linkage study’. The QLDS was made and Aged Care data have been included. records? In a talk titled ‘Feasibility of available to CSIRO under an agreement The WADLS is built on the concept of a a no-name linkage strategy: A game of between Queensland Health (QH)

2 SSAI Newsletter – November 2005 and the Commonwealth Department The final speaker at the symposium research. Ross stated that it is essential to of Health and Ageing (DoHA). This was Ross Sparks of Mathematical assess selection bias in any data linkage data set contains patient level hospital and Information Sciences at CSIRO in and advocated a number of diagnostic separation data, Medicare claims data Sydney, with a talk titled ‘Selection bias, tools and tests for doing so. Some of and PBS data, all from 1995 to 1999. information loss and inference with linked these are simple and should be routinely data sets’. Whenever data sets are linked All data were de-identified, and actual carried out; for example, comparing the using the ‘intersection principle’, there is dates of service were removed, so that linked data distribution to its source a potential for significant information loss data set distribution using q-q plots, and time sequences were indicated by time and selection bias, and Ross illustrated from first admission. This process this with several simple examples. He examining multi-way tables for selection provided strong privacy protection then made the point that while the bias. Ross also discussed the additional consistent with relevant Federal and alternative ‘union principle’ may often be complexity in analysis created when joins State legislations. The QLDS provided a impossible due to data size restrictions, are not perfect and probabilistic matching unique demonstration resource to assess it does allow a superior handling of the is necessary. He emphasized the need for the utility of examination of ‘whole of missing values problem, and is typically quality statistical input throughout the health system’ costs, service levels and subject to less selection bias. Finding entire data linkage process so as to ensure outcomes; and it has been extensively something of a half-way house between valid inferences at the end of the day. the intersection and union approaches analysed over nearly four years by Borek Puza, Terry Neeman and Brent may be an important avenue for future researchers from CSIRO, DoHA and QH. Henderson

SBI Conference

The fourth conference of the ISI’s • To promote the advancement and Statistics, Business and Industry exchange of knowledge in business Committee (SBI) was held immediately and industrial statistics after ISI from 11-13 April 2005. The • To build international collaboration conference was held at the Palm Cove among statisticians and users of Novotel resort just north of Cairns (see statistics working in business and http://www.action-m.com/isbis4). It was probably a combination of the industry attraction of Tropical North Queensland • To build international collaboration and the excellent promotional work of the among statisticians and users of Scientific and Organizational Committees statistics working in business and that resulted in 150 attendees, three Milena Zeithamlova (Principal, Action industry quarters from overseas. M Agency) and Monika Jandova • To exchange ideas and information at an The conference focussed on international level through conferences, important statistical issues relating to The plenary sessions included workshops and publications productivity improvement, improved • To encourage links between statisticians use of quantitative methods to support presentations by John Laker (Chairman, from developing and developed decision-making at all levels of business Australian Prudential Regulatory and industry, and statistical aspects of Authority), David Hand (Imperial countries finance. Needless to say its importance College), Tim Davis (Ford Fellow, Ford • To develop and promote relationships and relevance to the real world resulted Motor Company) and a very interesting among national and regional in a number of high-profile statistical session where speakers from a cross professional societies or groups and business speakers. Topics covered section of statistical backgrounds spoke involved in activities related to business for five minutes each on the subject of included: and industrial statistics. “Industrial Statistics – Challenges for • Design of Experiments Generous support by the Queensland the 21st Century”. The conference was • Process Control preceded by a well-attended one-day Government and CSIRO enabled • Reliability workshop on Data Mining: Methods and attendance of a number of young • Six Sigma and Other Quality Applications in Insurance and Finance, statisticians, who participated Management Paradigms conducted by Jerry Friedman and Glenn enthusiastically in all aspects of the • Case Studies and Novel Statistical Stone. conference. Applications • Information Technology and Network Edited versions of some of the The conference was superbly run and Modelling conference papers will appear in a Special the professional conference organizers • Software Engineering Issue of the journal Applied Stochastic (Action M Agency) who were all the • Financial Statistics Models in Business and Industry, with way from the Czech Republic are Dennis Lin as Guest Editor. • Chemometrics to be congratulated. Nick Fisher • Pharmaceutical Statistics An important function of the (Conference Director) and Vijay Nair • Large Data Sets in Business and conference was to kick-start the new (who unfortunately had to cancel at the Industry International Society on Business and last minute) also did a fantastic job in • New Developments and Applications Industrial Statistics (ISBIS), which was constructing and organizing the scientific in Data Mining and Machine Learning founded during the Sydney ISI in April • Risk Analysis and Management (see http://www.cbs.nl/isi/isbis.htm ). program. • Market Research The objectives of the ISBIS are: Emlyn Williams

SSAI Newsletter – November 2005 3 Editorial

Sometimes it seems as though sport is simply a mechanism for generating statistics, and when the sport in question is the cricket being played in England, there are sleepless nights as well! A series of cricket games played between Australia and England took place between the previous issue of the newsletter and this one. While I will not be making any comments about the statistics generated by the PO Box 5111, game, I was intrigued by one particular commercial that cropped up frequently Braddon ACT 2612 during my evening’s watching. Phone (02) 6249 8266 The Institute of Chartered Accountants’ “Rocket” commercial depicted a rocket Fax (02) 6249 6558 that was unable to take off due to the absence of numbers needed for the countdown. Email: [email protected] The punchline of the commercial was “Chartered Accountants: Number One in Numbers”. Society Web Page http://www.statsoc.org.au Two thoughts came to my mind. Firstly, I thought statisticians had a monopoly on the use of the space shuttle to showcase what their professional advice can do. Not any more! Secondly, I wondered what a similar commercial for statisticians might be like. If you have ideas, or if you would like to see the Society pursue this Editors form of advertising, please contact us. The newsletter has a new email address, [email protected], and the Editors welcome correspondence at this address Alice Richardson, School of ISE, on topics of interest to members of the Society. University of Canberra, PO Box 1, Belconnen ACT 2616 As for the timelines for seeing your contributions in print, please update your diaries with the new newsletter publication schedule beginning in 2006. The new deadlines for copy will be the 10th of February, May, August and November. The Michael Adena, Covance Pty Ltd Editors are looking forward to bringing you information-filled issues, but we rely PO Box 5125, Braddon, ACT 2612 on you to provide much of the material! Correspondence Finally, the Editors would like to take this opportunity to wish all members of the Society a happy and safe Christmas. Please direct all editorial correspondence to Alice Richardson. Email: [email protected] Correction: In the August 2005 issue the photographs on page 3 of presenters at the 2005 Disclaimer Young Statisticians Workshop were reversed. The photograph on the top left The views of contributors to this hand side of the page is Greg Peterson and the photograph at the bottom right Newsletter should not be attributed to hand side is Daniel Schubert. the Statistical Society of Australia, Inc.

Subscriptions

The Newsletter of the Statistical Society Professional Development of Australia is supplied free to all members of the society. Any others Opportunities by SSAI wishing to subscribe to the Newsletter may do so at an annual cost of A$30.00 for an issue of four numbers. A Workshop on the R System, hosted by the SSAI Victorian Branch, will be held in Melbourne on 23-24 November 2005. Advertising The R system provides, straightforwardly, well-designed publication-quality Advertising will be carried in the plots that can include mathematical symbols and formulae. While the user has full control when required, careful default graphical design choices keep user Newsletter on any matters which the intervention to a minimum. Editors feel are of interest to the members of the Society. For details of advertising John Maindonald (Centre for Bioinformation Science, Mathematical Sciences rates, etc. contact the SSAI Executive Institute, ANU) will present the workshop. Officer at [email protected] For registration and workshop information visit: http://www.statsoc.org. au/Branches/VIC/SSAI_Vic_R_workshop.pdf Printer Introduction to R, hosted by the SSAI Western Australian Branch, will be National Capital Printing held in Perth on 30 November and 1 December 2005. 22 Pirie Street, Fyshwick ACT 2609 The course will consist of an alternating series of lectures and computer practicals that will allow participants to immediately try out what they have learned in lectures. The course is designed for those who have had little or no experience with R but who would like to learn more. DEADLINE FOR The course will be presented by Martin Hazelton and Berwin Turlach from NEXT ISSUE: the School of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Western Australia. 10 FEBRUARY 2006 For registration and workshop information visit: http://www.maths.murdoch.edu.au/ssawa/

4 SSAI Newsletter – November 2005 President’s Corner

Thanks to Neville Bartlett SSAI is assisting this review with a financial contribution of $5,000. I am most honoured to follow Neville Bartlett as President of SSAI. I know that you will join with me in thanking him for his Applications Editor contribution during the past two years. He has been very active in this role and injected quite a different perspective on the way As the term of the current things are done. Applications Editor of the Australian and New Zealand As will be noted elsewhere, the formal way in which the Journal of Statistics, Russell Presidency changes in SSAI ensures a very smooth transition Millar, will finish at the end of process. The member elected as Vice President serves a term of four years. In the first year they are the President-Elect; they this year, a call for expressions then serve for two years as President, and then a further year as of interest from members of Vice President. As they are on the Executive Committee for the SSAI and NZSA will soon be full period, they can learn from the President and pass on their circulated electronically. I’ll knowledge to the President-Elect. Neville has been particularly formally thank Russell for his helpful to me and he has my heartfelt appreciation for his valued contribution in due course. continued forbearance. Comment on relevant public issues Reviews The question of SSAI commenting on relevant public issues The SSAI review of Statistics at Australian universities is was discussed at a recent Executive Committee meeting. It was nearing completion as members of the Review Team prepare the decided that it is appropriate for the society to do so, provided final version of their report. A number of people commented on that sufficient time is allowed for the Executive to determine the first draft of the report and these comments were passed on a suitable subcommittee to formulate a response which can to the Review Team along with those from the steering group. subsequently be approved for release. This can be achieved by A final report is expected in the next few weeks and will be e-mail correspondence, but would probably still need a lead- available in hard copy and electronic form. time of 3-4 weeks. Requests to the President or Executive Officer The Australian Mathematics Society is conducting a review for consideration of an SSAI position on a relevant public issue of Mathematical Sciences in Australia with sponsorship from could originate from any member. The Executive reserves the the ARC. This review is expected to take place in February right to not make a formal comment. and March of 2006 and further details can be obtained from Kaye Basford http://www.austms.org.au/AustMath/StratRev/stratrev.html. E-mail: [email protected] Election of Executive Officers of the Society Conferences Fifth International Symposium on Members of the Statistical Society of the Branches for consideration by the Business and Industrial Statistics Australia Inc are advised that the terms Nominating Committee. 11-13 January 2006, Lima, Peru of the Vice President (Neville Bartlett), The Society’s Rules provide for any www.stat.vt.edu/isbis5 Secretary (Doug Shaw) and Treasurer member of the Society, or any Branch (Stephen Horn) expire at the Society’s Council, to make a nomination to any ASC/NZSA 2006 Statistical Annual General Meeting to be held in member of the Nominating Committee July 2006. for any of the positions to be filled. Connections The member elected as Vice President The Rules set a deadline of January 31, 3-7 July 2006, Auckland, New serves a term of four years. In the first 2006 for such nominations to be made. Zealand year they are the President-Elect; they Earlier nominations would assist the www.statsnz2006.com then serve for two years as President and Nominating Committee in its work. then a further year as Vice President. The Contact information for Branch Presidents member elected to this office cannot seek can be found at: http://www.statsoc.org. 8th Australasian Conference on re-election. The Secretary and Treasurer au/branches Mathematics and Computers in serve a term of two years, and may be The Society’s Rules currently stipulate Sport that, if a ballot is necessary for any of re-elected. 3-5 July 2006, Coolangatta, the positions, that ballot is conducted The Society has a Nominating Queensland Committee, consisting of the Executive amongst the members of Central Council. The Society is considering Rule changes to Contact: [email protected] Officers and the Presidents of the Branches. broaden the ballot process for subsequent The Nominating Committee presents elections. Central Council with no more than three ISI2007, Lisbon, Portugal candidates for each of the positions to Doug Shaw http://www.ine.pt be filled. Nominations are sought from Secretary

SSAI Newsletter – November 2005 5 Bayes for Beginners workshop

The SSAI SA branch organised a 2- 1999. The Bayesian model combining the that could be used such as Convergence day workshop on October 4th & 5th for APACHE III and local data was then a Diagnostics (CODA) software to support Professor Kerrie Mengersen to present better predictive tool of deaths in ICU. the Bayesian models and other facilities her “Bayes for Beginners” course which Kerrie introduced Bayesian in WinBUGS that would allow more was similarly organised in Perth during computation using Markov chain Monte control when modelling. Kerrie finished 2004. The workshop was held at The Carlo (MCMC) simulation methods. She off emphasising that Bayesian techniques University of Adelaide Waite Campus, introduced MCMC algorithms such as are most useful to deal with complex a pleasant location in the Adelaide Gibbs sampling and Metropolis-Hastings modelling. foothills. which was followed by participants The SSAI SA council would like to take The response to the workshop was attempting some examples in WinBUGS the opportunity to thank Kerrie for her excellent, 36 participants came from software. Some further topics Kerrie efforts during the 2-day workshop and to near and far - Queensland, New South discussed were hierarchical and mixture all participants who were involved that Wales, Victoria and locally in South models which participants attempted made it a success. Australia. Participants came from various themselves and various tools to determine universities such as The University of an appropriate model using Bayes Factor Feedback from the attendees showed Adelaide, Flinders University, University and the Deviance Information Criterion. a strong desire for more workshops on a of South Australia, Macquarie University, Final discussions in the workshop range of different areas. and Monash University as well as a range that were raised were diagnostic tools Janine Jones of private and government organisations such as BearingPoint Australia P/L, Colmar Brunton, CMAX, CSIRO and ABS. SSAI SA branch also provided two student grants to Jason Ellul (honours student) and Brian Webby (PhD student) from The University of Adelaide to attend the course and learn Bayesian statistics and software such as WinBUGS for potential components of their research and for their own professional development. The workshop was run in a computer laboratory over the two days in which Kerrie gave lecture and practical sessions which flowed seamlessly. The participants were able to interact with Kerrie and each other in a supportive environment which provided greater opportunity for participants to learn. Kerrie is currently Professor of Statistics and Acting Director of the Science Workshop attendees (L-R) John Field, Janine Jones and Paul Eckermann Research Centre at QUT. She has a strong background in computational Bayesian statistics as shown by her research activities in theoretical and applied Member News aspects of Markov chain Monte Carlo The following is reprinted from the Amstat News (July 2005) – congratulations and novel methods for data mining, Simon. environmental modelling and medical Simon J Sheather has been named head of the Department of Statistics at research. Texas A&M University. Sheather began his term on March 1, 2005. He comes Kerrie began the course discussing to us from the Australian Graduate School of Management at the University the basics of Bayesian inference using of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia, where he served as the head of the decision trees and the fundamental Bayes Statistics and Operations Group and as the Associate Dean of Research. A rule. She then moved onto building few of Sheather’s awards include ranking among the top 200 mathematicians Bayesian models and showing how the worldwide, receiving the inaugural AGSM Award for Excellence in Research, choice of prior such as non-informative and receiving the AGSM Alumni Association Award for Excellence in Teaching. prior or conjugate prior influences the Texas A&M University and the Department of Statistics enthusiastically posterior distribution. Kerrie went on welcome Sheather as the new department head. to illustrate an example of combining prior information such as ICU mortality 2006 Membership Renewals models from APACHE III that was based Renewal invoices will be sent to all members in early December. on 17000 patients from 40 US hospitals An early-bird discount applies for members who renew before 1 February and combine it with local data which 2006. had 5000 admissions to PAH from 1995-

6 SSAI Newsletter – November 2005 ACSPRI SHORT COURSES IN RESEARCH METHODS 2006 ACSPRI SUMMER PROGRAM AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, CANBERRA 16-27 JANUARY 2006

The Australian Consortium for Social and Political Research Inc. was formed in 1976 as a national organisation of member institutions to enhance the use of machine-readable data. In support of its objectives, ACSPRI offers courses in research methods and research technology designed to serve a wide variety of needs for training and professional development within the academic, public and private sectors. ACSPRI (5-DAY) COURSES WEEK 1: 16-20TH January 2006 WEEK 2: 23-27TH January 2006 * Introduction to Qualitative Research Techniques * Focus Groups and Other Qualitative Group Techniques * Intro to Social Network Research & Network Analysis for Research, Evaluation and Planning * Introduction to Statistics * Data Analysis in SAS * Intro to NVivo: computer-assisted qualitative data analysis * Data Analysis in SPSS * Fundamentals of Multiple Regression * Qualitative Research: Design, Analysis & Representation * Factor Analysis * Applied Multiple Regression Analysis * Data Analysis using Stata * Time Series Modelling * Applied Structural Equation Modelling * Introduction to Structural Equation Modelling (LISREL) * Measurement in the Psychosocial Sciences: from raw scores * Introduction to Structural Equation Modelling (AMOS) to rasch measures. * Practical Multilevel Analysis using MLwiN & LISREL ACSPRI Programs have earned a high reputation for presenting a practical and applied approach to research methods and data analysis, promoting hands-on learning opportunities, and using highly skilled and experienced instructors. 5-DAY COURSE FEES (GST INCLUSIVE) ACSPRI Member: $1260* (early-bird fee: $1150) Non-member: $1750 (early-bird fee: $1630) * Full-time PhD students studying at ACSPRI member institutions may be eligible for a substantial early-bird discount (all early-bird course fees must be paid in full on or by closing date of 8 December 2005). See the ACSPRI website for details. FURTHER INFORMATION, COURSE APPLICATION FORMS AND ON-LINE BOOKINGS ACSPRI: Tel: 02 6125 2200; Fax: 02 6125 4722 Website: www.acspri.org.au Email: [email protected]

Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics

I am taking this opportunity to introduce myself as the new Managing Editor of the Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics. The journal is what we make of it, so I invite you to consider ANZJS as the first avenue for the dissemination of your frontier research and novel applications in statistics. In 2006, as part of your SSAI membership you will have access to both online and hard copy versions of the journal. An upgraded online delivery of full text and pdf versions will be available. Remember that non-subscribers can also make one-off purchases of articles of interest. If you require further information about online access to ANZJS, please visit the journal website or contact Blackwell’s Customer Service officer, Ms Lei Hattori; email [email protected] phone (03) 8359 1014. In order to better plan for 2007 onwards, you will be asked as part of your 2006 membership renewal whether you would prefer to receive the journal online only. Please feel free to email me directly at [email protected] with comments or suggestions about our journal. I would also be pleased to hear from you if you are interested in contributing as an Associate Editor or reviewer. Kerrie Mengersen, Managing Editor

SSAI Newsletter – November 2005 7 Have you recently begun working as a statistician and would like to attend the Australian Statistical Conference in 2006? Do you need some financial assistance to get there? The upcoming Australian Statistical Conference (in conjunction with the New Zealand Statistical Association Conference) will be held at SKYCITY Convention Centre in Auckland from 3-7 July 2006. Data Analysis Australia has a sponsorship pool of $2,500 to provide travel and accommodation support to statisticians working in Australia who have graduated within the last 5 years and would like to attend the 2006 conference.

The conference is a fantastic opportunity for statisticians new to the profession to: • Meet with other people at a similar stage of their career as well as highly experienced statisticians. • Build professional networks. • Make and develop friendships. • Keep abreast of statistical developments and research within Australia and New Zealand. • Discuss your own work and get some ideas or thoughts from other statisticians who may be able to help you. To find out more about the conference please visit www.statsnz2006.com.

If you would like to be considered in obtaining some financial assistance to attend the conference please send a 1-2 page response addressing the following points: • A summary of where you have worked as a statistician, what this work has involved and how long you have been working as a statistician. • Why you would like to attend the conference and how you feel attending the conference will help you in developing your career. • A copy of your CV including proof of formal qualifications. • Names and contact details of 2 Professional Referees. • What other financial support (if any) would be available to you to attend the conference.

Successful applicants will be Please send your application to: required to provide a report Statistical Society of Australia Inc. on return which may be PO Box 5111 reproduced in the Data Analysis Braddon ACT 2612 Australia or Statistical Society newsletters and/or websites. or to [email protected] STRATEGIC Special consideration may be Applications close Friday 24th March 2006 INFORMATION given to those statisticians who CONSULTANTS are working in organisations If you have any enquiries please contact: where they may not have Jane Waslin (02) 6249 8266 [email protected] the opportunity to meet with Neville Bartlett 0412 399 239 [email protected] many other statisticians and could benefit most from the Anna Munday (08) 9386 3304 [email protected] networking opportunities available at the conference. www.daa.com.au www.statsoc.org.au

8 SSAI Newsletter – November 2005 Named Lectures, 2005

Foreman Lecture by Dennis Trewin Cornish Lecture by Kerrie Mengersen The Foreman lecture is one of the Canberra Branch’s two The South Australian Branch began a series of public lectures named lectures and is held in odd-numbered years within on statistical topics of broad interest in 2001. The lecture series the branch; the ABS sponsors a speaker at the ASC in even- has been named after Alf Cornish, a leading figure in the early numbered years. The lecture is named in honour of Ken Foreman years of the statistical profession in Adelaide. The lectures are and the enormous contribution he made to the survey sampling held every two years and are presented by eminent statisticians community over many years, particularly at the Australian from around the world. The speaker for the 2005 Cornish Bureau of Statistics. Lecture was Kerrie Mengersen, Professor of Statistics and Acting This year’s Foreman lecture was given by Dennis Trewin, Director of the Science Research Centre at the Queensland the Australian Statistician, and was particularly fitting because University of Technology. The title of her talk was ‘Making it coincided with the centenary year of the Australian Bureau Decisions Based on Data (and Other Sources of Information): A of Statistics. Around 60 members attended the meeting at ABS Bayesian Perspective’. House and listened to Dennis speak of those 100 years and the The general Bayesian approach is to combine the data development of the statistical methods during that time. (represented by the likelihood function) and a prior belief about Dennis structured the talk into 4 main sections where he spoke the parameter of interest (prior distribution) to tell us something about the developments during the pre World War II phase, the about the parameter, given the data (posterior distribution). An Foreman era, the post Foreman era and the future. advantage of using the Bayesian approach to analysis is that we often have some knowledge about the situation before we begin In the pre World War II period Dennis listed George Knibbs’ data collection and it seems sensible to use that information, book on the “Mathematical Theory of Population”, the together with the information contained in the data, in order to development of the balance of payments and the creation of the say something about the parameter of interest. first research officer as major advances. One of the many situations where Bayesian analysis is useful Dennis noted that the Foreman era saw a great many is in developing a predictive model for the risk of experiencing methodological developments, including the introduction of an adverse event, based on the value of a number of predictor social surveys, generalized survey systems, quality control variables. If the event is rare, it would be difficult for example, procedures, seasonal adjustment, post-enumeration surveys, to develop a model which gives meaningful predictions for synchronized sampling and the quarterly labour force study. Australians using Australian data only. However, if a large The period after Foreman was recognized for the amount of data was available for another country such as the methodological developments in things like the integration USA, this information could be used to give the prior distribution of survey designs, the use of tax data, the introduction of and then Australian data could be used to update the prior (i.e. time series methods, forms design, the notion of ‘Total Survey produce an updated risk of experiencing the adverse event). Design’, improved editing systems and the creation of the One challenge in the Bayesian setting is choosing a suitable ‘Analysis’ branch. prior distribution. The chosen prior could be vague or could be Dennis discussed the immense benefits realized from the chosen based on data from a previous study or expert opinion. In overall investment in methodological developments. the latter case, the challenge is to elicit useful prior information The talk concluded with a look to the future methodological from the expert. One approach is to ask them to comment challenges that Dennis saw on the horizon. Those challenges on what they would expect the outcome to be if a number of included the emergence of new statistical outputs (like predictor variables took specified values or how they would environmental data) and the unique sampling methods they expect the outcome to change as one of those predictor variables demand, the extraction of data from large databases, data linkage, changed. However, the expert may find it easier to represent provision of confidentiality, internet and web-based surveys, their knowledge graphically. This is particularly relevant in the small area statistics, greater use of analytical or model-based prediction of areas where a rare species of animal may be present approaches and the combination of survey and management for example, as an expert may be able to use a map to show data. where they would and would not expect to find the animal. The first discussant, Professor David Steel from the University The talk concluded with a lively discussion about prior of Wollongong, focused on the future methodological distributions. Kerrie was then presented with a bottle of South developments. He thought that there was likely to be a greater Australian wine in appreciation for her efforts in running the need for methods to combine data, protect confidentiality, ‘Bayes for Beginners’ workshop and presenting the Cornish improve analytical outputs and to allow the adoption of common Lecture. frameworks. He also emphasized the critical role the ABS has in developing and supporting the statistics discipline, and suggested that there was a need for a co-ordinated approach Thank you with other organizations. The Statistical Society of Australia would like to thank the Dr Trevor Breusch from the School of Economics at the following organisations for their continued support during 2005: Australian National University was the second discussant and brought the perspective of a regular user of ABS data v Australian Bureau of Statistics and statistics. He offered a number of useful comments and v Covance suggestions for improved information delivery into the future. v CSIRO This was one of the best attended meetings in recent times. And also the many members who serve on the Society’s various A lively dinner followed at the popular Turkish Pide House in committees at branch and national level to ensure a strong future Jamison. for the organisation. Brent Henderson

SSAI Newsletter – November 2005 9 Three Doors with Borek Puza (Edition 4)

Welcome to the fourth edition of Three of the 1st number given that it exceeds accept the 8th number if it is greater than Doors. In the last edition I presented The 1/2, namely 3/4, and the expected value 0.5, and otherwise accept the 9th and last Nine Number Puzzle and subsequently of the 2nd number, namely 1/2). number. Your expected gain will then be received four correct solutions, these Now suppose that n = 3. Then you 0.84982, i.e. $849.82. being from Ken Brewer, Terry Neeman, should accept the 1st number if it exceeds It is interesting, as pointed out by “W.S. Janice Wooton and one W.S. Gossett. With 0.625, and otherwise you should reject Gossett”, that the optimal solution is not witnesses Michael Martin, Steve Roberts it and adopt the optimal strategy for the the “intuitively reasonable answer” of and Tim Higgins present, I rolled 4 on a case n = 2. Your expected gain is then accepting the kth number if it exceeds die and thereby declared the winner as (1 - 0.625)(0.625 + 1)/2 + 0.625(0.625) = the expected maximum of the remaining W.S. Gossett. Unfortunately there was 0.69531 (a suitably weighted average of no other identifying information on the the expected value of the 1st number 9 - k numbers, namely (9 - k)/(10 - k). paper with that name which had been given that it exceeds 0.625, namely (0.625 This naive strategy yields an expected slipped under my door, and so the hunt + 1)/2, and the expected value for the gain of only $842.84. It should also be for its true author began. At first it was case n = 2, namely 0.625). noted, as was done by Ken Brewer, that suspected that he or she was a ‘student’, Next suppose that n = 4. Then you the variance of the gain increases rapidly but at last the joker was found, and I am should accept the 1st number if it exceeds towards the end of the game. This means pleased to announce Steven Stern as the 0.69531, and otherwise you should that “a risk-averse player playing the second winner of the Three Doors prize, adopt the optimal strategy for the case game only once would be well advised again a $60 dinner voucher. Both prizes n = 3. Your expected gain is then (1 - to adopt a conservative strategy” and be this year have been kindly donated by 0.69531)(0.69531 + 1)/2 + 0.69531(0.69531) prepared to accept numbers substantially the Canberra Branch of the SSAI. Below = 0.74173. below the above optimal cutoffs, in order is the puzzle and its solution. The next Obtained by continuing iteratively in to avoid the possibility of ending up with puzzle follows. the above fashion, the following table a reward considerably below $849.82. shows the maximum expected gain The Nine Number Puzzle e(n) for each n from 0 to 9. These gains The Chess Puzzle You are about to play a game in which follow the insoluble quadratic recurrence At a university, 128 students are about 2 9 numbers will be randomly drawn from equation e(n) = (1 + e(n - 1) )/2, where to play in a knockout chess competition. between 0 and 1 (uniformly, independently, e(0) = 0. We see that for any n > 0, the The first round consists of 64 games, with and one by one). Just after observing each optimal strategy involves accepting the the winners progressing to the second number, you must either accept or reject it, 1st number if it exceeds e(n - 1) and round of 32 games, and so on, until an but you may accept only once. The accepted otherwise adopting the optimal strategy overall winner is declared following the number will be multiplied by 1000 and you for the case n - 1. 7th round. In case of a draw the game will win that number of dollars. Find your maximum expected gain and describe the n 01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 corresponding optimal strategy. e(n) 0 0.5 0.625 0.69531 0.74173 0.77508 0.80038 0.82030 0.83645 0.84982 Solution to The Nine Number Thus, for the case n = 9 you should is replayed until someone wins. If the Puzzle accept the 1st number if (and only if) it 128 students are all of equal ability and Let n be the number of numbers drawn is greater than 0.83645, accept the 2nd pairing is random at each round, find the and suppose that n equals 2 (rather than number if it is greater than 0.82030, accept probability that the two oldest students 9). Then clearly you should accept the 1st the 3rd number if it is greater than 0.80038, will play against each other at some stage number if it exceeds 1/2, and otherwise accept the 4th number if it is greater of the competition. you should accept the 2nd number. By than 0.77508, accept the 5th number if the law of total probability, your expected it is greater than 0.74173, accept the 6th For your chance to win a fabulous gain is then (1/2)(3/4) + (1/2)(1/2) = number if it is greater than 0.69531, accept mystery prize, send your most elegant 0.625 (the average of the expected value the 7th number if it is greater than 0.625, solution to [email protected]

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10 SSAI Newsletter – November 2005 Undergraduate Students Are you a Statistical student wanting to attend the Australian Statistical Conference 2006?

The Statistical Society of Australia Inc (SSAI) in conjunction with the New Zealand Statistical Association Conference will be held in Auckland 3-6 July 2006. CSIRO Mathematical and Information Sciences has a pool of $4K to contribute to students who needn some fi nancial assistance to attend the conference. If you would like to be considered in obtaining some fi nancial assistance to attend the conference please forward a 1–2 page document addressing the selection criteria.

Selection Criteria: Please send your application, addressing ƒ What would be the value to you, both short term and in your the Selection Criteria developing career, to attend the conference? together with your CV and transcripts or your ƒ Which aspect of the conference is most interesting to you? academic results to:

ƒ What is the level of assistance required? Executive Offi cer, Statistical Society of ƒ Provide 2 professional referees. Australia Inc, PO Box 5111, Braddon ACT 2612 You will also be required to provide a Report/Seminar on return to Applications close your individual department, CSIRO to receive a copy. Friday 24 March 2006

Applications close Should you have any enquires please contact Ms Julie Tesoriero, tel: (02) 9325 3157 or email: Friday 24 March 2006 [email protected]

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SSAI Newsletter – November 2005 11 Martin Esteban Donadio, 1973-2005

The Statistical Society of Australia has lost one of 6 July 2001, when he wrote in reply to my request its most active and enthusiastic younger members. for a summary of his project, which involved using Martin Donadio, a member of the Victorian Branch, Monte Carlo studies to estimate the variance of the was tragically killed in a traffic accident on August Horvitz-Thompson estimator in many different 25. Martin was highly regarded by all who knew ways and in a variety of situations. him. He was vibrant, friendly and intelligent, and From then on, our correspondence became one of the chief architects behind the rebuilding of steadily more frequent and less formal in tone. the Victorian Young Statisticians Group over the We became first co-operative researchers and last few years. The SSAI extends its sympathies then close friends. My usual role was to suggest to Martin’s family, friends and colleagues, and variations on a promising class of estimators, and particularly to his wife, Natalie Karavarsamis. Martin would test them out. By mid-September Natalie, Ken Brewer (coauthor of a paper with 2001 we were also exchanging telephone calls. By late Martin), Adam Thomas (a work colleague) and Brian that month we were satisfied that we had found the best Phillips (Victorian Branch President) share with us some estimator in our class, and had established that it compared recollections of Martin. favourably with those in other classes. Natalie writes about the years between Martin’s birth and their Soon afterwards Martin visited Canberra for a week, two marriage. days of which we spent working together. As it happened, Martin was born on 22 January 1973 in Argentina, in Arias, my daughter at that time needed a short S-Plus program to and grew up in Santa Eufemia, both small towns in the measure how well her Public Service inspection team was province of Cordoba. He completed his secondary studies achieving its goals, and Martin wrote one for her. That was at Liceo Militar Boarding School, and his undergraduate typical of his generous nature. degree at the National University of Rosario (1991-1998, Martin also had an appointment as Visiting Fellow with 5-year course, plus a research component of at least one the ANU’s Centre for Mathematics and its Applications from year). In 1996 he moved to Buenos Aires to work at INDEC 18 February to 24 June 2002, visiting Peter Hall. During that (National Institute of Statistics and Census), where he found period Martin and I had the opportunity to work closely a research topic and supervisor for his research component. together on a joint paper, which eventually appeared in He completed it whilst working there. the December 2003 issue of Survey Methodology. Having In February 2000 he came to Australia on a scholarship an early version of it helped me to arrange a visit to the US from the National University of Rosario to do a Master’s Bureau of the Census, and several other centres of statistical degree at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at activity in the US, over the Northern Hemisphere’s summer the University of Melbourne. He transferred from a Master’s of 2002. by coursework (2000) to a Master’s by Research (2001-2002) Martin was an ideal co-worker; perceptive, diligent, and submitted his thesis in January 2002. Whilst studying invariably helpful in every way, and at the same time he worked as a tutor and examiner in the first year course an agreeable and interesting companion. Outside of our on experimental design and data analysis. He also lectured statistical activities, we spent many happy hours together for one semester at RMIT to third year students taking the visiting places of interest in Canberra, bushwalking in linear models course, for which he wrote the notes as well the surrounding countryside, and simply relaxing in the as the examination paper. In the first half of 2002 he went evenings with family and friends. He would undoubtedly to Canberra for 3 to 4 months, and in that same year he have made quite a name for himself, had he not been worked in the Statistical Consulting Centre at the University untimely taken from us. He is, and will continue to be, of Melbourne. Early in 2003 he started working for the ABS sorely missed. in Melbourne. Adam Thomas, who supervised Martin at the ABS in Melbourne, He chose to study in Australia over the USA and the UK writes about Martin’s time at the Bureau. because it was the country located furthest away from his, Martin worked at the Australian Bureau of Statistics and therefore the most difficult of all three places to travel from March 2003 to August 2005. Martin was recruited to – he had already visited the UK. He also chose Australia after having completed his Masters in Applied Statistics at because it was ‘exotic’. Primarily he came to study, but he the University of Melbourne. Prior to arriving in Australia, also came for the ‘life experience’ (as he called it) of living Martin had previous work experience in the Argentine in a different country and experiencing a different culture Bureau of Statistics. from his. Upon his arrival in late February 2000, and during During his time at the ABS, Martin was involved in the first weeks of lectures, we met and we were married on numerous projects including sample design work (for several 6 December 2003. service industry surveys and a trial into a 2-phase area based Ken Brewer, who presented the eulogy at Martin’s funeral, design for Agriculture surveys) and review of methods for writes about Martin’s time in Canberra. improving imputation and estimation for ABS surveys. Martin first contacted me by email from Melbourne in mid- He will be remembered for his exceptional technical skills, 2000, asking me to suggest some references to get him started having done a considerable amount of work looking at the on his Master’s thesis. By September 15 he had most of what application of complex estimation and replicated variance he needed, but there is then a gap in my email records until techniques to ABS surveys.

12 SSAI Newsletter – November 2005 Society Secretaries

Central Council President: Dr N Bartlett Secretary: Dr D Shaw Email: [email protected] Martin is most recognised for his work in promoting statistics amongst contribution towards progressing the younger generation. New South Wales President: Mr Alun Pope selection methods, having received Martin was highly regarded by all Secretary: Dr Neville Weber an award from the ABS for his of his colleagues in the ABS. He Email: [email protected] significant role in the redevelopment was an extremely bright and talented of synchronised selection programs statistician, with a professional attitude Canberra and high quality client support. This and a genuine interest in improving President: Dr Brent Henderson work was an extension of Martin’s the quality of official statistics. Secretary: Dr Ray Lindsay Master’s project. Martin’s love of his To those who worked closely with Email: [email protected] work, and statistics as a profession, was Martin, he was a trusted friend and Victoria demonstrated when he volunteered to very well liked. His colleagues will President: Dr Brian Phillips attend the Annual Statistical Conference always remember his caring nature; Secretary: Dr Ann Maharaj of SSAI in Cairns to present his work his willingness to help others and his Email: [email protected]. on the assumption that he would pay genuine love of life. edu.au for the travel himself while the norm Brian Phillips, President of the in the ABS is to seek corporate funding South Australia Victorian Branch of the Statistical Society President: Ms Margaret Swincer for such duty. ABS management was so of Australia, writes about an award that impressed by his enthusiasm that they Secretary: Ms Janine Jones Martin received. Email: [email protected] offered to fund his trip but due to work Professor Denise Lievesley, commitments he was later unable to Western Australia attend. The paper he was due to present President-Elect of the International President: Dr Aloke Phatak was entitled ‘Maximising and minimising Statistical Institute (ISI), partially Secretary: Ms Jodie Thompson sample overlap using order sampling’ sponsored some Victorian Young Email: [email protected] Statisticians to attend the 55th Session and discussed how order sampling can of the ISI in Sydney, April 2005, Queensland be used to select two samples from the through the Victorian Branch of the President: Professor John Eccleston same population using two sampling Statistical Society of Australia Inc Secretary: Ms Helen Johnson designs with different stratification and (SSAI). Email: [email protected] inclusion probabilities. Martin Donadio was one of four Martin played a significant role in young statisticians who received this Section Chairs the promotion of statistics. He was an award. His selection was based on active member of the Young Statisticians a number of factors including: his Statistics in the Medical Sciences group; presented information sessions to Mr Peter Howley pivotal involvement in the activities University statistics students; attended [email protected] of the Young Statisticians of Victoria several University careers fairs to promote and the Victorian Branch of the Statistics in the Biological Sciences statistics as a career; presented statistical SSAI; his help with the organisation Dr Simon Barry analysis courses to graduates at the ABS; of the Denise Lievesley Workshop Email: [email protected] and was an active contributor in internal on Improving Survey Data Quality; Survey and Management workshops and methodological network and his involvement in many other Dr Robert Clark groups of which he was a member. statistical society activities. Email: [email protected] Martin attended the 55th Session of Statistical Education ISI in Sydney after winning the Denise Martin was highly regarded by the Dr Michael Martin Lievesley Award in recognition of his Council members of the Victorian Branch of the SSAI. He [email protected] was viewed as a future Statistical Computing leader in the discipline Associate Professor Kuldeep Kumar and as an early career Email: [email protected] statistician with a Industrial Statistics desire to broaden his Mr Ross McVinish horizons. He was Email: [email protected] especially interested in Young Statisticians the role of statistics on Ms Janice Wooton the world stage, and, in Email: [email protected] his typically gregarious Bayesian and friendly manner, Professor Kerrie Mengersen spent considerable Email: [email protected] time talking to Denise about her experience Further contact details for as an international Society Secretaries and statistician. Section Chairs can be obtained by contacting the Society on (02) 6249 8266

SSAI Newsletter – November 2005 13 Branch Reports

WESTERN but this has since been delayed until • Mathematics of Chance and Data 2008. (Statistics) AUSTRALIA Ken then described the new courses • Mathematics of Space and Movement of study in mathematics, the processes (Trigonometry and Geometry). July 2005 leading to their creation, and their One of Ken’s points was that students Associate Professor Ken Harrison implications for tertiary studies. He then will be pressured to follow one course from Mathematics and Statistics at described what he saw as serious flaws of study, and hence gain a very narrow Murdoch University presented the in the courses. These included the lack of exposure to mathematical ideas. He also July talk to the WA Branch of the SSAI. breadth of each of the three courses when alluded to the ideas of essential content His talk was titled “Changes to Upper taken in isolation, the vagueness and for courses like probability and statistics Secondary Level Education- What’s All inappropriateness of the course objectives, with the comment that generally too the Fuss About?”. This talk was one of a and the severe difficulties teachers were much was packed into the syllabus. continuing sequence of talks which Ken likely to face when assessing student has given and is continuing to give in Fortunately there will still be the achievement against these objectives. He his role in the Curriculum Council WA, opportunity for submissions relating to also pointed out that the representatives where he is the sole representative of the the new mathematics courses during the of university mathematics departments university sector (not just mathematics). formal consultation phase in 2006. on the reference group that produced the He explained that the need for change I (Brenton Clarke) as VP and Chair new courses were unanimous in their to the WA education system dates back of the meeting extracted some views opposition to the mathematics courses to 1996 and is summarised in documents on statistics education in schools from in their current form. With regard to the that have filtered through since (see, various sources, including the United last point it was noted that there was no for example, “Our Youth, Our Future, Kingdom Report “Making Mathematics one from the SSAI nor any statistician Curriculum Council WA 2002). Count” by Professor Adrian Smith; was on the mathematics reference group, Helen MacGillivray’s article in the May Ken then described the key objectives even though the Maths Association WA issue of the SSAI Newsletter; and a of the new system and the major was represented, along with government recommendation from the Draft of the milestones of its introduction. Outcomes agencies and education/school reps. based education (OBE) was introduced SSAI Review of Statistics at Australian for years K-10 about 7 years ago, and The three mathematics courses Universities. The discussion was then will be gradually phased into years 11 proposed for Year 11/12 in Western thrown open to the meeting. It was noted & 12 over the next few years. It was Australia are: that the SSAI Review of Statistics was originally planned to introduce the new • Mathematics of Number and Change directed at university education though mathematics courses into year 11 in 2007, (equivalent to Calculus) the impact of school level education

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14 SSAI Newsletter – November 2005 Branch Reports Continued and changes could not be ignored in Discussion after the talk included interest membership without the journal should the overall picture. Some views from the in how I teach ANOVA. I explained that I be made available. The evening ended teachers’ perspective were also aired. had been inspired based on teaching and with a sumptuous pizza-style dinner as A small group continued the discussion research at several universities (including sponsored by the School of Finance and at a nearby restaurant. the University of London, ETH-Zürich, Applied Statistics (FAS) at the Australian and the University of North Carolina National University (ANU). Special August 2005 at Chapel Hill) in the area of ANOVA thanks must go to Jennifer Hunt of FAS prior to coming to Murdoch University As part of my role as VP I have for her exceptional efforts which made and together with 20 years experience at the distinction of writing up my own the entire evening a great success. that institution, where I have frequently presentation to the August meeting been asked both questions of theory and of the WA Branch, which was titled practice of linear models, that this was the “Some Representations of ANOVA in basis for a draft of a book. It was noted Experimental Design”. As I explained to that the representations I gave could my audience, I owe the inspiration for potentially be used for permutation tests. the derivations and results presented in Also it was pointed out to me that the the talk to numerous people including well known statistician Oliver Lancaster all my teachers, some collaborators, and dedicated his book to J.O. Irwin. students in the unit on linear models and experimental design at Murdoch Discussion continued at a local University (M374 from 1984-1991 restaurant, with suggestions and interest and MAS481 from 1992-2005). I was in the talk and potential book. encouraged prior to the meeting to References: Richard Hutchinson, Brent Henderson receive an email of good wishes for the Clarke (2002) A representation of and Emma Farrell talk from a visitor to Perth who is based orthogonal components in analysis of Emma Farrell in the US. variance, International Mathematical Emma Farrell never expected to have It is always good to start with a gentle Journal, 1, 133-147 a career in mathematics. She came to the introduction. This was about non- Clarke & Hogan (2005) A way of ANU to get out of the small country town central chi-squared and F distributions, deriving ANOVA for mixed models and where she grew up, and decided to do an some definitions, a little theory and an variance component models based on an Arts degree. Motivated by a desire to help illustration of what transpires when one historical representation of component people, she majored in psychology and wishes to test that the non-centrality sums of squares. Proceedings of the 55th aimed to become a clinical psychologist. parameter is zero versus an alternative Session of the International Statistical However, this required a masters degree, that it is greater than zero. Institute (ISI), Sydney. which required an honours degree. I reviewed some history of the Lancaster, H.O. (1969) The chi-squared Emma particularly enjoyed the statistics distribution theory behind ANOVA and distribution. New York: Wiley. which she studied during her honours gave representations that I have derived Brenton R. Clarke year. Also, by then she had met so many based on that history. The approach taken ‘crazy and depressed people’ that she by J.O. Irwin in a paper published in didn’t want to do clinical psychology any 1934 can be streamlined using Kronecker CANBERRA more. So she took up a temporary job at products and partitions of Helmert the ABS, starting on the day her honours matrices. The details appeared in a paper The experiences of two young thesis was due, and eventually obtained a I published in 2002. This was followed statisticians permanent position. recently by material that I gave in a During her six years with the ABS, joint presentation at the ISI Conference At the monthly meeting of the Canberra Branch of the SSAI on 30 August 2005, two Emma has developed standards in Sydney in 2005 involving the above young statisticians - Emma Farrell of the for the design of survey forms and representations to derive ANOVA for Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and questionnaires. This work has involved a mixed model for a two way layout Richard Hutchinson of Covance - shared the testing of data collection instruments, (Clarke and Hogan (2005)). For example their work and study experiences over both theoretical and applied research, and the rows in the two way layout can the last few years. The two presentations also some external consultancies. Emma be represented by fixed effects and the were followed by a lively discussion feels that she has made good use of the columns by random effects. about the issue of young statisticians skills gained in her psychology degree, Using this approach I then gave some needing support during the early stages since the design of survey forms requires results that for the representations for a of their career. It was mentioned that a good understanding of how people traditional model for a split plot design the CSIRO is big on mentoring and think and how to get them to respond showing the methodology for deriving the that this could also happen under the when they don’t want to. Also, the distribution theory behind ANOVA can auspices of the SSAI. It was noted that statistics which she learnt at university be extended to more complex designs. this suggestion has been made before, has given her a good appreciation of the My conclusion is that understanding and that perhaps the mentoring should need for representative samples and the the distribution theory behind the be very informal and not necessarily at a impact on data quality of measurement ANOVA is an important step even for technical level. Several persons, including error and non-response bias. persons training to be practical or applied some students, expressed a view that to To give the audience an example of her statisticians. increase numbers in SSAI, a much cheaper work, Emma distributed a handout titled

SSAI Newsletter – November 2005 15 Branch Reports Continued

‘Developing a new system for Computer were the prestigious Cleveland Clinic in to outline his vision for the future of Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI): Ohio (which specialises in heart problems Statistics at La Trobe. The Business Technology Survey, 2002-03’ and cancer), and Westat, an employee- Geoff Laslett and discussed a few questions from this owned survey research company, located survey dealing with IT security measures. in Rockville, Maryland, near Washington, Statistical Science at La Trobe She described how these questions were DC. Richard found the two interviews to University improved and tested in order to adapt be in complete contrast with each other, La Trobe University gained the self-administered paper form into a with the Cleveland interview being long accreditation of its Statistics Degree CATI interview. This process involved and formal (from 7.00 am to 5.30 pm Program by SSAI in June 2005. It is a split-sample experiment which tested with numerous technical interviews) and the first university in Australia to gain various versions of the survey form, with the Westat interview being short and accreditation of its Statistics Degree real interviewers calling live respondents informal (from 9.00 am to 12.00 noon). He Program. To achieve accreditation, and with both monitored by Emma and also found the socio-economic conditions a new third year unit that provides others. The result was the elimination of of the two locations quite different, with advanced level material on sample the versions which were too vague or too Cleveland being a city that has seen surveys, multivariate analysis and time tiresome, either for the respondent or the better times, and Maryland being very series analysis was introduced in 2005. interviewer. The split-sample experiment affluent looking. The introduction of this unit provides was followed by useability testing of the After being offered a job by Westat, our students with a better rounded screen design. Richard decided to accept another offer education in statistics. Achievement of by Covance in Canberra. This was a hard accreditation has several advantages. It Richard Hutchinson choice; but Richard now thinks he made makes our graduates more attractive to Richard Hutchinson’s talk was titled the right one. He believes that he was employers. It also raises the profile of ‘The transition from statistics student not 100% ready to make the move to Statistical Science within the University. to biostatistician’. In the first year of the USA, so far from his family in New Statistical Science at La Trobe has his BSc degree at The University of Zealand. Also, he is now more interested recently made two new full-time Auckland, Richard did a range of science in pharmaceutical statistics (specialised continuing appointments. Dr. Luke subjects including chemistry, physics, in by Covance) as opposed to survey Prendergast has been appointed to a mathematics, computer science, biology statistics (specialised in by Westat). Lecturer position. His article entitled and statistics. He enjoyed statistics and He is happy at Covance, although he “Influence functions for sliced inverse biology the most, and this led him to would ideally like to practice more of the regression” recently appeared in decide in second year to eventually do an statistics that he learnt at university than Scandinavian Journal of Statistics. Jarrod MSc in Medical Statistics, also at Auckland he has been able to. Tuck has been appointed to an Associate University. Richard’s MSc included Borek Puza Lecturer position. Jarrod’s PhD thesis is statistical theory, regression modelling, on the effect of preliminary statistical survey statistics, epidemiology, clinical model selection on subsequent inference trials, mixed models, bioinformatics and VICTORIA in the form of a confidence interval. statistical computing. Amongst these He is planning to submit his thesis topics, Richard particularly enjoyed Martin Donadio, a member of the for examination before the end of the survey statistics and clinical trials, and Victorian Branch, was tragically killed year. The appointment of both of these his dissertation was titled ‘Methods of in a motor cycle accident in August. He young statisticians is indicative of a estimation for a dual frame survey with a was on the way home from his place renewal in Statistical Science at La complex design’. of employment, the Australian Bureau Trobe. It is expected that another full- After finishing his MSc in June 2004, of Statistics in Melbourne. Martin was time continuing position in Statistical Richard had the option of either doing highly regarded by all who knew him. Science will be advertised within the a PhD or looking for a job. He chose the He was vibrant, friendly and intelligent, next six months. Statistical Science at latter and decided to head to Canada and one of the main architects behind La Trobe has a long tradition of high – his birthplace – to start looking. the rebuilding of the Victorian Young quality research and resources continue Richard’s job hunting began at the Joint Statisticians Group over the last few to be allocated to maintain this high Statistical Meetings held in Toronto in years. The Victorian Branch Council standard. August 2004, where a career fair featured extends its sympathies to Martin’s family, In addition, we are making new recruiting and interviewing by more than friends and colleagues, and particularly efforts to (a) inform high school students 50 companies. Richard was interviewed to his wife, Natalie Karavarsamis. A about career opportunities in statistics, by eight organisations, including Eli Lilly full obituary appears elsewhere in this (b) maintain close contact with our (a pharmaceutical company) and the issue. graduates and (c) develop better contacts John A. Burns School of Medicine at the La Trobe University recently with employers of our graduates. We University of Hawaii. He found that the lost two of its senior statisticians to are very pleased to have a very strong interviewing techniques varied greatly other universities. Richard Huggins cohort of third and fourth year students between organisations, and also that accepted a chair at the University of who, in addition to a major in statistics, companies preferred statisticians with Melbourne, and Mervyn Silvapulle is have a solid training in other fields such experience and US citizenship, neither of now a professor at Monash. I asked Paul as commerce, finance or advanced level which Richard had. Kabaila, the Head of Statistical Science mathematics. These students will be Two of the organisations invited Richard at La Trobe, to explain how the Section eagerly sought after by employers. for further interviews in person. These is responding to these changes, and Paul Kabaila

16 SSAI Newsletter – November 2005 Branch Reports Continued

The risk of 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 - 5 The last part of the talk covered the Dr Williamson has been working with being negative, when planning portfolio allocation problem introduced NATSEM during his visit to Australia for the future by Markowitz in 1952. This problem to develop techniques for adding The speaker at the June meeting was was re-interpreted as finding the asset geographical information to NATSEM’s Alan Brown, an Adjunct Professor at mix that maximised the risk adjusted currently non-spatial microsimulation Swinburne University of Technology return. In this setting the problem model, DYNAMOD. and a self-styled tired actuary. His has a unique solution. The resulting Dr Williamson put forward an intriguingly titled talk covered some mix based on Australian sector data approach that he has developed in the of the ideas and models he has played of annual returns for the years 1983- UK and that he termed ‘combinatorial with for many years. Alan took the 2004 showed a strong preference for optimisation’. He contrasted this numbers in the title of his talk to shares and property trusts, whilst the approach with the conventional be expected values. When variation is same analysis for the period 1984-2003 Australian Bureau of Statistics technique added to these expected values, the showed a preference for government of reweighting data by age and sex. possibility that the total could become bonds. The speaker emphasised the Combinatorial optimization creates a negative is obvious. need to look to the future and finished set of synthetic microdata, shown by Dr with a disclaimer about providing Williamson to have a high degree of fit financial advice. A discussion followed to estimation constraints and capable of on the current issue of Member’s Choice producing good estimates for margin- for superannuation. constrained distributions. In fact, Dr Williamson argued that in many cases Synthetic estimation of sub- synthetically generated microdata offer district population microdata better accuracy than real survey data On Tuesday 19 July the Victorian and stated that 2% sample survey data Branches of the Statistical Society of are not as good as synthetic estimates. Australia and the Australian Population A lively discussion ensued and the Association co-hosted a presentation by evening concluded with dinner at a Dr Paul Williamson of the Department local restaurant. Alan Brown of Geography at The University of Maryann Wulff Photo: Brian Phillips Liverpool, UK. Approximately two dozen members of the respective Relating HFE genotype to To illustrate this Alan conducted a associations (including a few who are chronic diseases in an Australian practical demonstration using the two members of other societies) attended the cohort study of hereditary point “double or nothing” distribution seminar, held at Swinburne University haemochromatosis of Technology. for each variable It is pleasing to report The August meeting was addressed that the volunteer who put his $1 on the by Dr Lyle Gurrin, Centre for table collected 2 x $0.20 + 0 x $0.40 + 2 x Dr Paul Molecular, Environmental, Genetic $0.60 + 2 x $0.80 – 0 x $1.00 = $0.60. This Williamson and Analytic Epidemiology, School amount was actually greater than his Photo: Brian of Population Health, University expected gain of $0.50, and not less. The Phillips of Melbourne (MEGA). Dr Gurrin speaker showed how the normal power presented a population based study asymptotic expansion could be used to on haemochromatosis as well as some estimate the probability of a loss. preliminary results. Haemochromatosis Using exponential utility to express is an important public health issue and his risk aversion, with R > 0 the risk the current debate is about whether capital, the speaker then derived a risk haemochromatosis is a disease that adjusted value of a random variable warrants public health screening. Y as (Y,R) = - R log E[- Y/R]. He noted Dr Williamson addressed a problem that the risk adjusted value is a multiple confronting many researchers wishing of the cumulant generating function of to examine population and other Y, and used a property of cumulant trends at small (sub-national, regional generating functions to prove that risk or local) geographic levels. Census adjusted values are additive provided confidentiality requirements and/or the random variables are independent. small sample survey sizes mean that In many practical situations where small area micro-level data are often random variables are being summed, not available. Yet population projections the variables are not independent and and many policy questions need to be adjustments to the second and higher investigated at a small area level. In cumulants of the total are required. Australia NATSEM (National Centre for Lyle Gurrin. Photo: Brian Phillips The speaker built a copula model for Social and Economic Modelling) at the the adjustments in terms of cumulant University of Canberra is developing generating functions based on a known Haemochromatosis is an iron a spatial microsimulation model to overload disease which can have fatal result for the second cumulant, or address such policy issues as local and variance. results. Treatment, unlike many other regional demands for social security. diseases, is simple because it consists

SSAI Newsletter – November 2005 17 Branch Reports Continued of blood letting. This could actually modelling response times. Despite the seen as a form of Maximum product of provide benefits for the community difficulties of trying to locate a room spacing estimation. since the blood could be used by others. with data projectors, the talk started Software that performed the A major gene, called HFE, and its alleles smoothly with everyone holding their necessary statistical analysis and plots that cause susceptibility in Europeans breath to find out how a parametric was introduced, together with an area have been known since 1995. However distribution can have flexible shapes, as of future research where the generalized the relationship between the genetic well as its applications. distribution was extended to a five predisposition, primarily through the parameter version to include the C282Y allele, and disease is “necessary The presentation started with an skewness parameter. but not sufficient” so the hunt is on overview of his research problem in to identify environmental and genetic modelling response time (“RT”). RT Robert was invited for dinner with modifiers that will also be playing a role. corresponds to the time to respond to the audience where the fitting of the Dr Gurrin focused on the environmental a stimulus over a number of conditions distribution to data was discussed at arm of two studies that are being and subjects. The distribution of RT is length. coordinated at MEGA. He described then compared across different subjects Frankie Chan the large selective sample, selected and conditions and can be used to according to genotype that is currently describe (short-term) decision-making SOUTH AUSTRALIA being gathered for both studies and processes. outlined some of the problems that have Robert then introduced us to the Applications of Hidden Markov already arisen. Another polymorphism generalized distribution. Basically, Chains to Credit Risk Modelling of the HFE gene, the H63D mutation, the generalized distribution is a which is of much lesser consequence, Dr Malgorzata Korolkiewicz, quantile function which is defined by has proven to be difficult to genotype, a lecturer from the School of its inverse distribution function. The hence necessitating a change in Mathematical Sciences at the University four parameters within the distribution study design and analysis. Dr Gurrin of South Australia, was the speaker at discussed the impact of this and another control the location, scale, as well the August meeting. She spoke on the potential bias for one arm of the study as shape, making it a very flexible topic of credit risk modelling and the which intends to focus on the relevance distribution. It is able to model the right role that Markov chain theory can play of these two polymorphisms on and left tails separately, which makes in this area. chronic disease. The final slide showed it particularly attractive for response Credit rating services are used to rate some follow up data for transferritin time modelling. For a range of shapes corporate borrowers based on public serum levels, a biochemical marker that the Generalized distribution and private information. Investors for haemochromatosis, from base can produce, readers are invited to can use these credit ratings to assess a levels taken a decade ago to current refer to: http://maths.newcastle.edu. firm’s ability to meet its obligations and levels, color coded by genotype and au/~rking/gld/ studies have show that credit rating whether or not individuals had received Having defined the generalized changes have an impact on investor treatment (self reported). This showed distribution, the question of parameter returns. Although it is unknown exactly that C282Y homozygotes, that is those estimation was then discussed. A how credit ratings are derived, it individuals that have two copies of the number of methods including moment has been shown that the majority of susceptibility allele, seemed to have matching, MLE, MCMC and the ratings can be predicted using a fairly decreased transferritin levels at follow small number of financial variables. up if they had sought treatment. The Starship method were outlined and An alternative approach to predicting study is very large and comprehensive compared, with the Starship estimation credit ratings is to use the theory of with much data being collected that method being most appropriate for the discrete time Markov chains. will be analysed in the next few years. distribution in question. The Starship It is impressive in the clinical and estimation method briefly works as To model credit rating dynamics as a organizational challenges it presents follow: Markov chain, where the states space and should yield important outcomes 1. The inverse transformation, F(X) is the set of all rating classes, we need for public health. to the uniform, is applied to the data to know the transition matrix. This was estimated based on years of available After the meeting the speaker and over a range of parameter values members of the audience enjoyed dinner credit ratings and it was observed that 2. The parameter estimates are chosen ratings tend to stay the same or if they at “The Base Camp”, a nearby Nepalese as the set of values that transform the restaurant where further discussion took do change, they typically increase or data most effectively to the uniform as place over some glasses of wine. decrease by a single category. When measured using a test statistic such as using Markov chain theory, we assume Melanie Bahlo the Anderson-Darling. that the credit rating process has no Robert mentioned the advantages memory of its past. It is also assumed NEW SOUTH WALES of the above method are that the that the Markov chain is not observed distribution matches at the level of the directly but rather, it is hidden in noisy Investigating Response Times depths rather than the quantiles (which observations. Financial filtering can be with the Lambda Distribution aids numerical stability). It also allows used to estimate the state of the Markov Robert King travelled from Newcastle sections of the range to be emphasized chain and the EM algorithm is useful to the University of Sydney to present without giving too much weight to for obtaining parameter estimates. the June talk on his research on outliers. In addition, the method can be Lisa Yelland

18 SSAI Newsletter – November 2005 Branch Reports Continued

QUEENSLAND information coordination, strategy, publication and communication for the Office of Economic and Statistical July Branch meeting Research. Tim is also the Director of Dr Chris Glaseby of Biomathematics the Queensland Spatial Information & Statistics Scotland (BioSS), presented Office, responsible for implementing the July meeting on ‘Image warping key spatial information projects and segmentation using generalisations in Queensland as directed by QSIC. of dynamic programming’. The meeting Starting as a surveyor’s chainman in was jointly hosted with the School of outback Queensland, Tim has over 25 Mathematical Sciences, QUT. years experience in all sectors of the Dynamic programming (DP) is a fast, spatial information industry. Tim has a elegant method for finding the global Bachelor of Applied Science (QIT) and solution to a class of optimisation Master of Science in Engineering (UNB) problems. For example, it can be used and is currently studying towards a to find MAP estimators of boundaries, Dr Melissa Dobbie pictured in her office PhD at the Queensland University of to automatically segment 2-D medical at CSIRO with her AStat certificate. Technology, where he has also lectured images into anatomical regions (Glasbey for 15 years. Tim is the immediate past and Young, 2002). A variant, dynamic by branch president, Professor John president of AURISA and is currently time warping, can also be used to align Eccleston. the Spatial Information Commissioner pairs of tracks in 1-D electrophoresis Professor John Eccelston welcomed and President Elect of the Spatial gels. However, for more complicated Tim Barker, Assistant Government Sciences Institute. Tim was named problems, such as segmentation of 3- Statistician and Director Queensland APSEA Spatial Professional of the Year D images or warping of 2-D images, Spatial Information Office, Queensland in 2004. involving Markov random fields rather Office of Economic and Statistical Robert Bischof is currently the Acting than Markov chains, DP is not possible. Research and Robert Bischof, Manager Manager, Business Development Chris considered generalisations of Business Development, Qld Department Team, Strategic Information Services, DP to optimise posterior densities in of Local Government, Planning, Sport Department of Local Government problems involving image restoration, and Recreation who presented a talk and Planning, Sport and Recreation. warping or segmentation. One approach on ‘Queensland Spatial Information Previously, Rob worked for CSIRO for is a greedy algorithm, where DP is used Strategy - Probably Just as Good for 22 years researching the application to recursively solve each of a series of Statisticians’. The meeting was held at of information to regional planning 1-D sub-problems in turn, to find a local the Office of Economic and Statistical before moving to the Queensland optimum. Research, which made for a nice change State Government. His first job in State Another generalisation is to use a from the usual QUT/UQ venues. People Government was a short consultancy simulated annealing cooling schedule who wish to use spatial information to develop the draft business case and sample from the posterior densities often find that it can be difficult to locate, and functional specifications for the of the 1-D sub-problems, using a is hard to get access to and may not be EPA’s internal mapping application forward-backward recursion similar in a form suitable for their purpose. ECOMAPs. This was followed by two to the Baum-Welch algorithm. This The Queensland Spatial Information and half years as the SEQ 2021 GIS algorithm was originally proposed by Strategy (QSIS) is the mechanism being Coordinator where he was responsible Eddy (1995) for alignment of multiple used in Queensland to tackle these for coordinating the use of spatial DNA sequences. Methods were be issues. QSIS is an initiative to assist information and technologies to illustrated using data from 3-D X-ray in providing easy access to relevant support regional planning in South East computed tomography, 1-D and 2-D and reliable integrated spatial and Queensland (SEQ). After this position, electrophoresis gels, microscopy images strategic information for Queensland. he was the Principal Business Advisor and synthetic aperture radar. The presentation outlined the role of the Queensland Spatial Information Dr Glaseby is Head of Research, the Queensland Spatial Information Infrastructure Strategy (Queensland BioSS in Edinburgh, Scotland. His main Council and the Queensland Spatial Spatial Information Office (QSIO). He research interest is in spatio-temporal Information Office (QSIO) and showed is passionate about the use of spatial modelling, particularly as applied in how the strategies, policies and projects information in providing information to image analysis and meteorology. He that QSIC has sponsored over the last support a range of business outcomes. is joint editor of Applied Statistics and ten years has changed the landscape Twenty-two people attended the a member of the EPSRC Peer Review for information access across the whole meeting and a group went out to College. of the information industry, including dinner at a local restaurant with Robert those organisations who are primary Bischof. August Branch meeting and statistics providers. A number of case seminar on spatial statistics studies where the spatial and statistical September Meeting Before the meeting proper worlds have collided were profiled. In late September, the branch held a commenced, one of our Queensland Tim Barker is an Assistant day-long conference at the Queensland members, Dr Melissa Dobbie, was Government Statistician in the Bioscience Precinct in Brisbane. There presented with her A.Stat. certificate Queensland Treasury responsible for were about 30 attendees, mostly from

SSAI Newsletter – November 2005 19 Branch Reports Continued

University of Melbourne discussed “The design-based and model-based analysis of complex survey data”, and Robert Ware, UQ School of Population Health, talked about “Principal stratification approach to dealing with treatment-noncompliance and subsequent nonresponse”. Abstracts for the invited talks are available on the branch website (http://www.maths. qut.edu.au/ssaqld/). The afternoon saw 6 student presentations with a variety of subjects from experimental design to wavelet applications. Five of the speakers were judged on their talks by a panel of judges (the sixth student speaker was from UNE in NSW so unfortunately for him, wasn’t in the running!). A $200 book voucher, which was generously donated by the CMIS Environmental Informatics theme, was awarded to UQ PhD student Tim Waterhouse being presented with a $200 book voucher by the best student talk. Tim Waterhouse, Melissa Dobbie, CSIRO Mathematical and Information Sciences. a PhD student of Professor John Eccleston of UQ, was the recipient of academic institutions in Brisbane (UQ the award for his talk on “Optimal and QUT) and Toowoomba (USQ), design for logistic regression with but a few from various government random coefficients.” departments also attended. There Dr Ross Darnell, UQ, was the main were 4 invited talks presented in organiser of the day. The branch the morning: Jesus Lopez from the would like to especially thank him University of Southern Queensland for his efforts in pulling together the spoke on “Bioinformatics: Postmodern conference and creating an opportunity views”; Michele Haynes from UQ Social for Queensland-based statisticians Research Centre presented “Estimating to gather and listen to some great a GLMM for categorical longitudinal presentations on innovative research. survey data”; Murray Aitkin from the Miranda Mortlock and Melissa Dobbie

Dr Jesus Lopez of USQ.

MASA

Model Assisted Statistics and Applications An International Journal ISSN: 1574-1699

www.iospress.com Editor-in-Chief: Sarjinder Singh Managing Editor: Stephen Horn Treasurer: Sylvia R. Valdes Ian Wood, Ben Stewart-Koster and Katie Lee, all of QUT, at the conference dinner.

20 SSAI Newsletter – November 2005