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An Exploration of Perceptions, Adaptive Capacity and Food Security in The An exploration of perceptions, adaptive capacity and food security in the Ngqushwa Local Municipality, Eastern Cape, South Africa By Sonwabo Perez Mazinyo Submitted in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements of Doctor of Philosophy Degree in Geography in the Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences at the University of Fort Hare Supervisors: Prof. Werner Nel and Dr. Leocadia Zhou 2015 DECLARATION I, Sonwabo Perez Mazinyo, hereby declare that: 1) The work in this thesis is my own original work; 2) This thesis has not been previously submitted in full or partial fulfillment of the requirements for an equivalent qualification at any other recognised education institution. NAME: SONWABO PEREZ MAZINYO SIGNATURE: __________________ DATE: 31 August 2015 PLACE: UNIVERSITY OF FORT HARE, ALICE ii ABSTRACT Approximately sixty percent of Africans depend on rainfed agriculture for their livelihoods. South Africa is evidenced to be susceptible to inclement climate which impacts on rural livelihoods as well as on farming systems. While South Africa is considered to be food sufficient, it is estimated that approximately 35% of the population is vulnerable to food insecurity. Therefore with the application of surveys and interviews this study investigates the factors influencing household, subsistence and small-scale farmer perceptions of vulnerability to climate variability as well as the determinants of adaptive capacity. A sample of 308 households is surveyed and four focus group discussions are administered in Ngqushwa Local Municipality as a case study. Furthermore, the study also focuses on the biophysical changes or factors (scientific analysis of the prevailing climatic regimes–rainfall trends); the interrogation of the impact of food systems on both food prices as well as its implications on food sovereignty. The study also interrogates the relationship between crop yield and rainfall data over a 30-year period. Therefore the study adopts a mixed method approach to ensure triangulation. The study finds that rural communities are able to perceive climate variability and its related changes as well as its negative impact on crop production, food access and availability. The perceived rainfall trends also corroborate this. Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient reveals that there is a strong correlation between crop yields and rainfall (r = 0.69). Meteorological analyses also show that the rainfall trend has been significantly variable over 112 years (1900 - 2011) with several dry spells threatening the subsistence and small-scale farmers’ sustainable livelihoods. The food systems pose threats to food safety, food security and historical food sovereignty for the rural community of Ngqushwa Local Municipality. Adaptive capacity is greatly impaired by the lack of iii co-ordination of adaptation strategies, which communally benefit the majority of the farming respondents in the study area. Therefore vulnerability to climate variability impacts on the ability of the respondents to achieve food security. The study also finds that there is perceived competition between the farmers and wild life for the natural resources. The respondents’ perception is that climate variability and change is responsible for such competition. The study recommends that the national, provincial and local governments must foster a new food production model that is not based on the agro-business model and its attendant technologies but on one that is based on robust agro-ecological farming techniques which enhance adaptive capacity; which foster food safety; which promote food sovereignty; and which reduce vulnerability in a sustainable manner. Given the extent of climate variability in the study area the restoration of the NLM weather station infrastructure can also aid the farmers in taking advantage of a robust early warning system for better estimation of climate trends which enhance crop production. Keywords: perceptions, food systems, adaptive capacity, food security, food sovereignty, rural, rainfall, climate variability and change. iv DEDICATION To two very special persons: Toishia -Lynn Jamison and Florence Thandiwe Sira Thank you to Mvusi, Myles & Iminathi, Nocawe Mazinyo, Lukhanyo & Vuyelwa, Ernest & Katie Webb, and Student B & Regina Mazinyo for the remarkable inspiration. Last but not the least; my everlasting gratitude and affection go to Ernesha- Kazimlah Mazinyo and Solomon Oluthando Mazinyo II for the sacrifices they have had to make over the years – I owe you a lot more than words could express. v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I thank the Universal Father for giving me the wisdom and strength to finish this research work. Further gratitude goes to the Govan Mbeki Research and Development Centre (GMRDC), NRF, GreenMatter and Jimmy Khanyile, Canon Collins and MyCOE for assisting with funding. The financial assistance of the National Research Foundation (NRF) towards this research is hereby acknowledged. Opinions expressed and conclusions arrived at, are those of the author and are not necessarily to be attributed to the NRF. Special thanks go to my supervisors, Associate Professor W. Nel (Department of Geography and Environmental Science) and Dr. L. Zhou (Risk and Vulnerability Science Centre) for nudging me on each step of the way; Dr. K. Nhundu and Mr. A. Katiti for the additional support; and Professor C.E.P. Seethal for the philosophy and discipline of environmental research. The contributions made by the staff and students in the Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences during seminar presentations are greatly appreciated. This study would have been impossible without the help of the ward committees, local government officials, the councillors, the farmers who allowed the researcher to come into their home and work spaces, sometimes at short notice, and the Ngqushwa Local Municipality at large. I wish to express my most sincere gratitude to each and every person who connected me to their networks during the field work – Mr. Spelman, Mr. Dyibishe, Mrs. Nkohla, Mrs. Mgwayi, Ms. Ndabazonke, Mrs. Maphekula, and many others. vi Table of Contents DECLARATION .................................................................................................... ii ABSTRACT ......................................................................................................... iii DEDICATION ...................................................................................................... v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .................................................................................... vi LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................ xv LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................... xvii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ............................................... xviii CHAPTER I .......................................................................................................... 1 BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY ......................................................................... 1 The United Nations and climate variability and change ........................................ 1 The definitions of climate change, climate variability and global change .............. 2 Food prices, biofuels, climate variability and change ............................................ 5 Projected vulnerabilities of climate variability and change in South Africa ............ 7 Climate variability and change in the Eastern Cape ............................................. 8 Brief background to the Ngqushwa Local Municipality ......................................... 9 Adaptive capacity and rural communities ........................................................... 10 Risk and vulnerability, adaptive capacity and Ngqushwa Local Municipality (NLM) ................................................................................................................. 11 Research Problem .............................................................................................. 11 Aim of the study .................................................................................................. 14 Objectives of the study ....................................................................................... 14 The significance of the study .............................................................................. 15 The case for investigating the perceptions of local rural communities about climate variability and change............................................................................. 16 Ethical and intellectual property rights considerations ........................................ 20 The Structure of the Study .................................................................................. 21 CHAPTER II ....................................................................................................... 24 LITERATURE REVIEW ...................................................................................... 24 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 24 vii Factors influencing perceptions and the determinants of adaptive capacity ....... 24 The extent of the effects of climate variability and global change on farming ..... 26 Impact of rainfall variability on maize and crop farming ...................................... 31 Food prices, food access, global food system and climate variability ................. 34 South Africa’s
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