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Climate Change Related Impacts in the San Diego Region by 2050

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Climate Change Related Impacts in the San Diego Region by 2050 CLIMATE CHANGE RELATED IMPACTS IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION BY 2050 DRAFT A Report From: California Climate Change Center APER P Prepared By: Steven Messner, Sandra C Miranda, Karen Green, Charles Phillips, Dr. Joseph HITE Dudley – SAIC W Dr. Dan Cayan – Scripps Institution of Oceanography Dr. Emily Young – The San Diego Foundation DISCLAIMER DRAFT This report was prepared as the result of work sponsored by the California Energy Commission (Energy Commission) and the California Environmental Protection Agency (Cal/EPA). It does not necessarily represent the views of the Energy Commission, Cal/EPA, their employees, or the State of California. The Energy Commission, Cal/EPA, the State of California, their employees, contractors, and subcontractors make no warrant, express or implied, and assume no legal liability for the information in this report; nor does any party represent that the uses of this information will not infringe upon privately owned rights. This report has not been approved or disapproved by the California Energy Commission or Cal/EPA, nor has the California Energy Commission or Cal/EPA passed upon the accuracy or adequacy of the information in this report. [If the study is funded by another state agency, its logo will be here] ii Acknowledgment This paper relies heavily on the research conducted in the San Diego Foundation’s Regional Focus 2050 Study (Focus 2050 Study), which was conceived of and commissioned by the Foundation’s Environment Program.1 The Foundation contracted with UC San Diego’s Environment and Sustainability Initiative (ESI) to serve as the project manager for the Focus 2050 study and the Foundation was the project manager for this PIER study. ESI staff worked with a team of 40 experts from the region including universities, nonprofit organizations, local governments, public sector agencies and private sector entities to produce this report. It draws upon the most current scientific analyses from a broad array of experts in climate science, demography and urban/regional planning, water, energy, public health and ecology. The Focus 2050 Study for the San Diego region is modeled, in part, on the Focus 2050 study undertaken by King County, Washington2 and is tailored for incorporation into the California Climate Change Center’s 2nd Biannual Assessment of the implications of climate change for the State of California.3 1 http://www.sdfoundation.org/communityimpact/environment/index.html 2 http://dnr.metrokc.gov/dnrp/climate-change/conference-2005.htm. (Last visited on 06/18/08) 3 http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/research/index.html (Last visited on 10/31/08) i Preface The California Energy Commission’s Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program supports public interest energy research and development that will help improve the quality of life in California by bringing environmentally safe, affordable, and reliable energy services and products to the marketplace. The PIER Program conducts public interest research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) projects to benefit California’s electricity and natural gas ratepayers. The PIER Program strives to conduct the most promising public interest energy research by partnering with RD&D entities, including individuals, businesses, utilities, and public or private research institutions. PIER funding efforts focus on the following RD&D program areas: • Buildings End-Use Energy Efficiency • Energy-Related Environmental Research • Energy Systems Integration • Environmentally Preferred Advanced Generation • Industrial/Agricultural/Water End-Use Energy Efficiency • Renewable Energy Technologies • Transportation In 2003, the California Energy Commission’s PIER Program established the California Climate Change Center to document climate change research relevant to the states. This center is a virtual organization with core research activities at Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the University of California, Berkeley, complemented by efforts at other research institutions. Priority research areas defined in PIER’s five-year Climate Change Research Plan are: monitoring, analysis, and modeling of climate; analysis of options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; assessment of physical impacts and of adaptation strategies; and analysis of the economic consequences of both climate change impacts and the efforts designed to reduce emissions. The California Climate Change Center Report Series details ongoing Center- sponsored research. As interim project results, the information contained in these reports may change; authors should be contacted for the most recent project results. By providing ready access to this timely research, the Center seeks to inform the public and expand dissemination of climate change information, thereby leveraging collaborative efforts and increasing the benefits of this research to California’s citizens, environment, and economy. For more information on the PIER Program, please visit the Energy Commission’s website www.energy.ca.gov/pier/, or contact the Energy Commission at (916) 654‐5164. ii Table of Contents Preface ................................................................................................................................. ii Abstract ............................................................................................................................... v 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................. 1 2. Project Approach .................................................................................................... 3 2.1. Climate Change in the San Diego Area .......................................................... 3 2.2. Sea Level Scenarios and Coastal Impacts in 2050 .......................................... 3 2.3. Climate Impacts on Water in 2050 ................................................................. 4 2.4. Wildfires in 2050 ............................................................................................ 5 2.5. Ecosystems in 2050......................................................................................... 6 2.6. Public Health in 2050...................................................................................... 7 2.7. Electricity: Powering Growth in a Demanding Future ................................... 9 3. Project Outcomes .................................................................................................. 11 3.1. Climate Change in the San Diego Area ........................................................ 11 3.2. Sea Level Scenarios and Coastal Impacts in 2050 ........................................ 13 3.3. Climate Impacts on Water in 2050 ............................................................... 18 3.4. Wildfires in 2050 .......................................................................................... 21 3.5. Ecosystems in 2050....................................................................................... 22 3.6. Public Health in 2050.................................................................................... 24 3.7. Electricity: Powering Growth in a Demanding Future ................................. 28 4. Conclusions and Recommendations ..................................................................... 34 4.1. Climate Change in the San Diego Area ........................................................ 34 4.2. Sea Level Scenarios and Coastal Impacts in 2050 ........................................ 35 4.3. Climate Impacts on Water in 2050 ............................................................... 36 4.4. Wildfires in 2050 .......................................................................................... 37 4.5. Ecosystems in 2050....................................................................................... 38 4.6. Public Health in 2050.................................................................................... 39 4.7. Electricity: Powering Growth in a Demanding Future ................................. 40 5. References ............................................................................................................. 41 5.1. Climate Change in the San Diego Area ........................................................ 41 5.2. Sea Level Scenarios and Coastal Impacts in 2050 ........................................ 41 5.3. Climate Impacts on Water in 2050 ............................................................... 41 5.4. Wildfires in 2050 .......................................................................................... 42 5.5. Ecosystems in 2050....................................................................................... 43 5.6. Public Health in 2050.................................................................................... 44 5.7. Electricity: Powering Growth in a Demanding Future ................................. 45 6. Glossary ................................................................................................................ 47 iii List of Figures Figure 1. Change in Annual Mean Temperature, San Diego Region from the Three GCMs, for Historical Period (blue) and for A2 (red) and B1 (brown) Emission Scenarios. .................................................................................................................. 11 Figure 2. Winter and Summer Temperature Differences. .............................................. 12 Figure 3. Sea Level Rise Projections. ...........................................................................
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