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The Global Risks Report 2020

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The Global Risks Report 2020 The Global Risks Report 2020 Insight Report 15th Edition In partnership with Marsh & McLennan and Zurich Insurance Group The Global Risks Landscape 2020 2020 2020 Climate action failure Climate action failure Extreme weather Weapons of mass destruction Natural disasters Biodiversity loss Human-made environmental disasters Biodiversity loss Extreme weather Water crises 4.0 CClimatelimate a actionction ffailureailure WWeaponseapons o off m massass ddestructionestruction 2019 2019 BBiodiversityiodiversity l lossoss Climate action failure Extreme weather Natural disasters Data fraud or theft Cyberattacks Extreme weather Climate action failure Weapons of mass destruction Water crises Natural disasters EExtremextreme w weathereather WWaterater c crisesrises IInformationnformation NNaturalatural disastersdisasters 2018 2018 iinfrastructurenfrastructure CCyberattacksyberattacks bbreakdownreakdown Natural disasters Climate action failure Weapons of mass destruction Extreme weather Water crises Extreme weather Natural disasters Cyberattacks Data fraud or theft Climate action failure IInfectiousnfectious d diseasesiseases HHuman-madeuman-made eenvironmentalnvironmental d disastersisaster InterstateInterstate GlobalGlobal g governanceovernance 2017 2017 conflictconflict failurefailure FFoodood c crisesrises Climate action failure Water crises Natural disasters Weapons of mass destruction Extreme weather Extreme weather Involuntary migration Natural disasters Terrorist attacks Data fraud or theft 3.5 Financial failure 3.47 Financial failure average FFiscaliscal crisescrises InvoluntaryInvoluntary m migrationigration 2.5 DataData fraudfraud o orr t theftheft 2016 2016 Unemployment Unemployment AssetAsset bubblesbubble SocialSocial instabilityinstability Water crises Involuntary migration Weapons of mass destruction Energy price shock Involuntary migration Extreme weather Interstate conflict Natural catastrophes Climate action failure Climate action failure echnological CriticalCritical infrastructureinfrastructure National T National failure failure governancegovernance failurefailure StateState c collapseollapse TerroristTerrorist attacksattacks AdverseAdverse technologicaltechnological 2015 2015 advancesadvances Weapons of mass destruction Interstate conflict Climate action failure Water crises Infectious diseases Interstate conflict Extreme weather Failure of national governance State collapse or crisis Unemployment Societal EnergyEnergy priceprice shockshock 2014 2014 UnmanageableUnmanageable inflationinflation Water crises Unemployment Fiscal crises Climate action failure Infrastructure breakdown Income disparity Extreme weather Unemployment Climate action failure Cyberattacks , respectively. , 3.0 Failure of Geopolitical urban planning 3 Deflation 201 2013 Weapons of mass destruction Financial failure Water crises Greenhouse gas emissions Income disparity Water crises Population ageing Climate action failure Fiscal imbalances Fiscal imbalances Global Risks Reports IllicitIllicit t traderade Impact 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 2 2 3.31 plotted 201 201 average area Environmental 5.0 Income disparity Fiscal imbalances Cyberattacks Water crises Energy price volatility Water crises Food crises Greenhouse gas emissions Fiscal imbalances Financial failure Likelihood ic 1 m 2011 201 no Top 10 risks in terms of Top 10 risks in terms of 1.0 5.0 co Energy price volatility Storms and cyclones Fiscal crises Climate change Corruption Geopolitical conflict Asset price collapse Flooding Biodiversity loss Climate change E Likelihood Impact Categories 1 Extreme weather 1 Climate action failure 2010 2010 2 Climate action failure 2 Weapons of mass destruction Economic Asset price collapse Asset price collapse Deglobalization (developed) Chronic disease Oil price spikes Chronic disease Fiscal crises China economic slowdown Fiscal crises Global governance gaps 3 Natural disasters 3 Biodiversity loss . 4 Biodiversity loss 4 Extreme weather Environmental 5 Human-made environmental disasters 5 Water crises 2009 2009 China economic slowdown Asset price collapse Asset price collapse Deglobalization (developed) Oil and gas price spike Chronic diseases Fiscal crises Chronic diseases Global governance gaps Deglobalization (emerging) 6 Data fraud or theft 6 Information infrastructure breakdown Geopolitical Global Risks Reports 7 Cyberattacks 7 Natural disasters Societal 8 Water crises 8 Cyberattacks 2008 2008 9 Global governance failure 9 Human-made environmental disasters Middle East instability Blow up in asset prices Blow up in asset prices Deglobalization (developed) China hard landing Oil price shock Pandemics Failed and failing states Oil price shock Chronic diseases Technological 10 Asset bubbles 10 Infectious diseases The Evolving Risks Landscape, 2007–2020 2007 2007 Note: Survey respondents were asked to assess the likelihood of the individual global risk on a scale of 1 to 5, 1 World Economic Forum 2007-2020, Chronic diseases Infrastructure breakdown Blow up in asset prices Deglobalization Interstate and civil wars Pandemics Oil price shock Oil price shock China hard landing Blow up in asset prices Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks representing a risk that is very unlikely to happen and 5 a risk that is very likely to occur. They also assess the impact Global risks may not be strictly comparable across years, as definitions and the set of global risks have evolved with new issues emerging on 10-yearthe horizon. For example, cyberattacks, income disparity and unemployment entered the set of global risks in 2012. Perception Survey 2019–2020. on each global risk on a scale of 1 to 5 (1: minimal impact, 2: minor impact, 3: moderate impact, 4: severe impact and d d t t d d h h h h 5: catastrophic impact). See Appendix B for more details. To ensure legibility, the names of the global risks are Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of Likelihood 1s 2n 3r 4t 5t Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of Impact 1s 2n 3r 4t 5t Figure I: Source: Note: Some global risks have been reclassified: water crises and income disparity were recategorized as societal risks in theand 2015 2014 abbreviated; see Appendix A for the full name and description. FigureThe II: The Global Risks RisksLandscape Landscape 2020 2020 4.0 CClimatelimate a actionction ffailureailure WWeaponseapons o off m massass ddestructionestruction BBiodiversityiodiversity l lossoss EExtremextreme weatherweather WWaterater c crisesrises IInformationnformation NNaturalatural d disastersisasters iinfrastructurenfrastructure CCyberattacksyberattacks bbreakdownreakdown IInfectiousnfectious d diseasesiseases HHuman-madeuman-made eenvironmentalnvironmental d disastersisaster InterstateInterstate GlobalGlobal g governanceovernance conflictconflict failurefailure FFoodood c crisesrises 3.5 Financial failure 3.47 Financial failure average FFiscaliscal crisescrises InvoluntaryInvoluntary m migrationigration 2.5 Unemployment DataData fraudfraud o orr t theftheft Unemployment AssetAsset bubblesbubble SocialSocial instabilityinstability CriticalCritical infrastructureinfrastructure NationalNational failure failure governancegovernance failurefailure StateState c collapseollapse TerroristTerrorist attacksattacks AdverseAdverse technologicaltechnological advancesadvances EnergyEnergy priceprice shockshock UnmanageableUnmanageable inflationinflation 3.0 Failure of urban planning Deflation IllicitIllicit t traderade Impact 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 3.31 plotted average area Likelihood 5.0 Top 10 risks in terms of Top 10 risks in terms of 1.0 5.0 Likelihood Impact Categories 1 Extreme weather 1 Climate action failure 2 Climate action failure 2 Weapons of mass destruction Economic 3 Natural disasters 3 Biodiversity loss 4 Biodiversity loss 4 Extreme weather Environmental 5 Human-made environmental disasters 5 Water crises 6 Data fraud or theft 6 Information infrastructure breakdown Geopolitical 7 Cyberattacks 7 Natural disasters Societal 8 Water crises 8 Cyberattacks 9 Global governance failure 9 Human-made environmental disasters Technological 10 Asset bubbles 10 Infectious diseases Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Note: Survey respondents were asked to assess the likelihood of the individual global risk on a scale of PerceptionSource: WorldSurvey Economic2019–2020. Forum Global Risks 1Note: to 5,Survey 1 representing respondents a wererisk that asked is to very assess unlikely the likelihood to happen of the and individual 5 a risk global that risk is on very a scale likely of 1to to occur. 5, 1 They representing a risk that is very unlikely to happen and 5 a risk that is very likely to occur. They also assess the impact Perception Survey 2019–2020. alsoon each assessed global riskthe on impact a scale of of 1each to 5 (1:global minimal risk impact, on a scale 2: minor of impact,1 to 5, 3: 1 moderaterepresenting impact, a 4:minimal severe impactimpact and and 5 a catastrophic5: catastrophic impact. impact). To See ensure Appendix legibility, B for more the details. names To of ensure the legibility,global risks the names are abbreviated; of the global risks see are Appendix A for theabbreviated; full name see and Appendix description. A for the full name and description. FigureThe III: The Global Global Shapers Shapers Risk Landscape Risks 2020 Landscape 2020 The Global Risks Interconnections Map 2020 Economic Environmental Climate Biodiversity action failure loss Extreme NNaturalatural d disastersisasters Human-made weather environmental disasters Natural disasters 4.0 4.0 Critical 4.0 HHuman-madeuman-made Unemployment EExtremextreme w weathereather
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