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Middle East North Africa Insights WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK

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Middle East North Africa Insights WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK WWORLDORLD EENERGYNERGY OOUTLOOKUTLOOK WWORLDORLD EENERGYNERGY OOUTLOOKUTLOOK Middle East North Africa Insights The world is hungry for energy and getting hungrier. WWORLD ENERGYOUTLOOK The countries of the Middle East and North Africa O have vast resources of oil and natural gas which R L could be developed to meet rising global demand as D many supplies elsewhere begin to decline. E But resources alone are not enough. Will investment N E match growth in demand? And will demand continue R to surge or will it be curbed by new consumer G Y country policies? O The International Energy Agency’s World Energy U T Outlook 2005 answers these challenging questions. L In addition to providing updated projections of O O world energy demand and supply to 2030, K it analyses in detail prospects for: n The Middle East and North Africa’s domestic Middle EastNorthAfricaInsights demand for oil, gas and electricity, including for water desalination; n The region’s oil and gas resources, plans and potential for production and how much investment will be required; n Energy-sector developments in Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates; n What will happen if upstream oil investment is delayed; n What will happen if consuming countries, driven by Middle East security concerns, persistent high prices or environmental policies, act to curb demand and develop alternatives. The producing countries in the Middle East and North Africa North Africa can count on growing demand for their oil and gas. Are energy importing countries’ expectations of them realistic? Insights €150 (61 2005 26 1 P1) ISBN 92-64-10949-8 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY 001-Intro 21/10/05 12:03 Page 1 WORLD ENERGY2 OUTLOOK 200 Middle East and North Africa Insights INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY 001-Intro 21/10/05 12:03 Page 2 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The International Energy Agency (IEA) is an autonomous body which was established in November 1974 within the framework of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to implement an international energy programme. It carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among twenty-six of the OECD’s thirty member countries. The basic aims of the IEA are: • to maintain and improve systems for coping with oil supply disruptions; • to promote rational energy policies in a global context through co-operative relations with non-member countries, industry and international organisations; • to operate a permanent information system on the international oil market; • to improve the world’s energy supply and demand structure by developing alternative energy sources and increasing the efficiency of energy use; • to assist in the integration of environmental and energy policies. The IEA member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States. The European Commission takes part in the work of the IEA. ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT The OECD is a unique forum where the governments of thirty democracies work together to address the economic, social and environmental challenges of globalisation. The OECD is also at the forefront of efforts to understand and to help governments respond to new developments and concerns, such as corporate governance, the information economy and the challenges of an ageing population. The Organisation provides a setting where governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practice and work to co-ordinate domestic and international policies. The OECD member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The European Commission takes part in the work of the OECD. © OECD/IEA, 2005 No reproduction, copy, transmission or translation of this publication may be made without written permission. Applications should be sent to: International Energy Agency (IEA), Head of Publications Service, 9 rue de la Fédération, 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France. 001-Intro 21/10/05 12:03 Page 3 This book is dedicated to Pierre Lefèvre, who died on 28 August 2005. His outstanding commitment, wisdom and humanity shaped the IEA Public Information Office from 2002 to 2005. 001-Intro 21/10/05 12:03 Page 4 001-Intro 21/10/05 12:03 Page 5 FOREWORD The World Energy Outlook (WEO) series is designed to give a framework of coherent future visions to assist government and industry in their decision making. This year’s WEO, while maintaining the global coverage, examines in detail the prospects and issues in the major oil- and gas-producing countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This publication has involved a huge data gathering exercise and in depth analysis. We have been aided by experts throughout the MENA region and from elsewhere in the world. I am indebted to them. I also wish to pay tribute to the IEA team, led by Dr. Fatih Birol, for its remarkable endeavor and results. The picture which emerges is one of sustained growth in demand for the region’s oil and gas, coupled with sustained economic and energy-demand growth in the region. The conclusion appears straightforward. In a well- functioning global economy, a suitably responsive investment in oil and gas, resulting in supply growth from the MENA region will benefit both MENA’s and the global economy. But the global economy does not function perfectly – mistaken perceptions of risk and opportunity may erroneously impact or delay decisions, and these effects can also be long lasting. Moreover, rational commercial decisions in a particular market may cause profound global damage if insufficient weight is given to environmental values. Deferred investment in oil and gas supply is one risk. Our analysis shows that a failure by MENA governments to commit or facilitate the necessary timely investment would diminish economic welfare not only among oil-consuming countries but also in the region. Oil and gas prices would rise, but demand would fall, resulting in a net loss to producers and consumers alike. As we go to press, unduly high oil prices, sustained in part by inadequate upstream and downstream oil-supply infrastructure, are giving rise to new cries of alarm in consuming countries. Energy-intensive developing countries are harder hit than the diverse economies of the OECD. Governments have other reasons to act in the energy sector. They are increasingly aware of the need to take new measures to increase efficiency and to cut the growth in demand from those forms of energy which contribute disproportionately to the burden of greenhouse-gas emissions. These considerations led us to develop the World Alternative Policy Scenario. The policy and market responses to the oil shocks of the 1970s show that radical changes to the energy economy can be made. We have not assumed Foreword 5 001-Intro 21/10/05 12:03 Page 6 drastic measures, merely that governments in consuming countries put into effect those measures which they are already contemplating. How far might the energy future be altered by such policies? The answer is that demand still grows – albeit more slowly, but still very substantially. Whichever scenario, the central message of our analysis is unchanged: the world needs sustained investment in oil and gas in any plausible future, a major part of it in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa. We have set out the policy issues faced by both consumer countries and producers. It is certain that both will make better decisions if they freely exchange their information, intentions and anxieties. Claude Mandil Executive Director 6 World Energy Outlook 2005 001-Intro 21/10/05 12:03 Page 7 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was prepared by the Economic Analysis Division of the International Energy Agency in co-operation with other divisions of the IEA. The Deputy Executive Director and Director of the Non-Member Countries Office, William C. Ramsay, and the Director of the Long-Term Office, Noé van Hulst, provided guidance and encouragement during the project. The study was designed and managed by Fatih Birol, Head of the Economic Analysis Division. Other members of EAD who were responsible for bringing the study to completion include: Maria Argiri, Marco Baroni, Amos Bromhead, François Cattier, Laura Cozzi, Hideshi Emoto, Lisa Guarrera, Teresa Malyshev, Trevor Morgan, Nicola Pochettino and Maria T. Storeng. Claudia Jones provided essential support. Robert Priddle carried editorial responsibility. The study also benefited from input provided by other IEA colleagues, particularly: Chris Besson, Jeff Brown, Dunia Chalabi, Viviane Consoli, Sylvie Cornot-Gandolphe, Gordon Duffus, Lawrence Eagles, Jason Elliott, David Fyfe, Rebecca Gaghen, Dagmar Graczyk, Klaus Jacoby, Tom O’Gallagher, Pawel Olejarnik, Riccardo Quercioli, James Ryder, Atsushi Suda, Harry Tchilinguirian, Nancy Turck, and Fritdjof Unander. Pierre Lefèvre, Angela Costrini, Muriel Custodio, Loretta Ravera, Bertrand Sadin and Tyna Wynaendts of the Public Information Office provided substantial help in producing this book. The work could not have
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