JANUARY 2020 Disclaimer
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
JANUARY 2020 Disclaimer This document has been prepared by PJSC “Aeroflot” (the “Company”). By attending the meeting where the presentation is made, or by reading the presentation slides, you agree to the following. This document does not constitute or form part of any advertisement of securities, any offer or invitation to sell or issue or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any securities of the Company in any jurisdiction, nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its presentation or distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or investment decision. No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this document or on assumptions made as to its completeness. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given by the Company, its subsidiaries or any of their respective advisers, officers, employees or agents, as to the accuracy of the information or opinions or for any loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of this presentation or its contents. This document may include forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include matters that are not historical facts or statements regarding the Company’s intentions, beliefs or current expectations concerning, among other things, the Company’s results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, prospects, growth, strategies, and the market in which the Company operates. By their nature, forwarding-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. The Company cautions you that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and that the Company’s actual results of operations, financial condition and liquidity and the development of the market in which the Company operates may differ materially from those made in or suggested by the forward-looking statements contained in this document. The Company does not undertake any obligation to review or confirm expectations or estimates or to update any forward-looking statements to reflect events that occur or circumstances that arise after the date of this presentation. 2 Airlines of Aeroflot Group Business Flight Aircraft Focus International RPK PAX Positioning model range fleet airport Share1 contribution1 Scheduled flights • Short- to long-haul • Narrow-body aircraft • Moscow SVO • Flagship carrier • Wide-body aircraft • Krasnoyarsk • Hub and spoke model 68% 61% product • High frequency Premium Premium Scheduled and charter flights • Short- to long-haul • Narrow-body aircraft • Moscow SVO, VKO • Presence in second largest market • Wide-body aircraft (for • Saint-Petersburg (St.Petersburg) Far Eastern flights and • Social routes (flat-fares) from Moscow charter) 48% 20% • Charter flights with the partner price regional / regional price - • Selected routes connected to Aeroflot charter productcharter Mid network Scheduled flights • Short- and medium- • Narrow-body aircraft • Moscow VKO • P2P flights via Moscow haul • Saint-Petersburg cost - • P2P flights within regions • Regional bases 28% 16% • High passenger load factor and fleet product Low utilization Scheduled flights • Short- and medium-haul • Narrow-body aircraft • Vladivoskok • Passenger flights in the Far East • Khabarovsk • Local flights to remote destinations within the • Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk 26% 3% Product Product region for Far East for Far 1 Note: according to company data as of 9M 2019 Multi-brand product offering to capture customers in every market segment: from premium to low-cost 4 Competitive Dynamics on Russian market Passenger Traffic: Russian Air Transportation Market Growing Market Share (PAX) mn PAX ml PAX 9M 2019 CAGR: 5.2% 137.0 123.7 +7.6% Other Russian Airlines 114.0 41.0% 111.8 21.8% 107.2 +10.8 p.p. 102.8 105.9 -9.1 p.p. 68.1 57.7 114.0 Foreign Airlines million 13.0% PAX -3.9 p.p. 68.8 56.3 5.6% -3.0 p.p. 6.5% 12.1% +1.9 p.p. +3.3 p.p. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 9M 2018 9M 2019 International routes Domestic routes International routes Domestic routes +X.X p.p. market share dynamics vs. 9M 2014 Source: TCH, Rosaviatsia, Company estimates. Figures include foreign carriers’ traffic Source: TCH, Rosaviatsia, Company estimates Russian market continues to grow. Aeroflot Group managed to increase market share on the growing market via presence in all market niches 6 Russian Market Continues its Robust Growth Passenger traffic, mn PAX CAGR +6.5% CAGR 189 +10.2% 147 137 124 112 104 107 103 92 80 70 57 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Reported Forecast Sources: FAVT, internal analysis 1 Structural trends 2 Evolving airport infrastructure 3 Stimulation effect of LCCs The Russian market will continue growing in future 7 Trends Supporting Industry 1 Structural (long-term) growth trends 2 Evolving airport infrastructure 3 Stimulation effect of LCCs 8 1 Long-term Market Growth Drivers 1 We remain constructive on Aeroflot’s prospects in the long-term, viewing it as well- 3 positioned to benefit from long-term growth in air traffic Recovering passenger traffic Domestic air and railways PAX, mn 139 mln Domestic air transportation PAX, mn Railways long haul PAX, mn 136 Passenger Passenger traffic mln 117 115 115 117 111 110 1990 90-100 104 98 101 102 68 2023 56 63 46 53 mln 33 35 39 50.1 26 24 29 11.1 mln 3.1 mln 2017 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Rosstat, Company data, FAVT 2009 1994 years 2 4 Russia still lags other key regions globally in terms of trips per capita Introduction of LCC Domestic air and railways PAX, mn 3.7 BEFORE NOW 2.5 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 No low-cost carriers Source: Company data, FAVT 2018 2008 Despite substantial growth in the recent years Russian market remains underpenetrated, particularly considering size and distances of the country 9 2 Infrastructure: Upgrade Over the Recent Decade Russia’s comprehensive modernization of regional airport network in the last decade… Volgograd, 2018 Nizhniy Novgorod, 2017 Novosibirsk, 2015 Kazan, 2012 1.1mn 1.3mn 1.6mn 1.3mn New terminals Perm, 2017 Rostov-on-Don, 2017 Samara, 2014 Vladivostok, 2012 1.1mn 1.1mn 1.2mn 0.6mn X mn City population1, mn …will be continued till 2024 in line with airport infrastructure overhaul plan 66 airports 171 RUB bn State + Private investments To be reconstructed and modernized To be invested Russia has a well-developed regional airport network which is set for further improvement Source: Rosstat, Russian government, public sources 10 Note: 1 As of 1 January 2019 3 Stimulation Effect of LCCs Capacity at selected destinations: Aeroflot, Pobeda, Others Since its establishment in December 2014 Pobeda has expanded to ~351 Mn Seats destinations operated by Aeroflot from 5 Moscow. 4 Other carriers: CAGR +1% 2 3 3 2 Pobeda: CAGR +21% 1 Aeroflot: CAGR +10% 2 0 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Aeroflot demonstrates robust growth in passenger Aeroflot PAX growth on jointly Aeroflot revenue (rub) growth on jointly operated routes (2018 vs 2014) +48% operated routes (2018 vs 2014) +69% numbers and revenue on jointly operated routes Aeroflot enjoys growth in passenger numbers and revenue amid Pobeda network expansion 1 The graph and figures above are based on 38 destinations operated from Moscow that Pobeda has launched on top of Aeroflot’s existent services and that have been launched before Sep-19. 2 5-year annual growth rate, 2019 vs 2014 calendar year. 3 4-year annual growth rate, 2019 vs 2015 11 calendar year. 3 Case Study 1: Moscow – Yekaterinburg Route Yekaterinburg - largest city in the Urals - 2 hours East from Moscow by plane Pobeda launched service in December 2014 Aeroflot and Pobeda have 66 and 16 flights per week, respectively Aeroflot and Pobeda networks focus on different market segments due to different … providing for no cannibalization effect between business models… networks at the current stage Aeroflot hub structure, Sheremetyevo : Thousand Seats Frequency All Arrivals Departures Captured Arrival 250 P2P traffic Airline to Yekaterinburg Banks 2014 2019 1:55am Russia, Europe, ME High-yield, business 200 90x 74x Other 6:45am Russia, Europe, ME High-yield, business 150 8:30am Russia, Europe, ME, Asia, CIS High-yield, business 11:20am Russia, CIS, Asia, America High-yield, business - 16x Pobeda 100 1:30pm Russia, America High-yield, business 3:15pm - Low-yield 3:20pm Russia, America, Europe High-yield, business 50 40x 66x Aeroflot 5:30pm Russia, Asia, Europe High-yield, business 0 9:30pm Russia, CIS, Europe, ME High-yield, business 11:45pm Russia, Europe, ME High-yield, business - Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 11:55pm Low-yield Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Aug-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Dec-16 Aug-17 Dec-17 Aug-18 Dec-18 Aug-19 Dec-19 Aeroflot, Pobeda (Vnukovo) Dec-13 Aeroflot and Pobeda both increased number of seats on Moscow – Yekaterinburg route on the back of the market growth focusing on different segments: Aeroflot on business and high-yield traffic demanding high frequency while Pobeda servicing low-yield P2P traffic 12 3 Case Study 2: Moscow – Milano Route Italy, and Milano in particular, is a sizable international market from Russia Pobeda launched service in December 2015 to secondary airport (Bergamo) Aeroflot operates 35 flights per week to Malpensa a/p, Pobeda - 10 to Bergamo a/p … providing for no cannibalization