Hudson News and Review

HUDSON INSTITUTE News & Review

WWW.HUDSON.ORG SUMMER 2008 HUDSON LAUNCHES 2008 INDEX OF GLOBAL PHILANTHROPY The core product of Hudson Institute’s Center for Global Prosperity, under the direction of Senior Fellow Carol Adelman, is the annual Index of Global Philanthropy, which details the sources and magnitude of private giving to the HUSAIN HAQQANI developing world. As the only comprehensive guide to private assistance and foreign aid, the Index reframes the discussion about the roles of the public and pri- named Pakistan’s vate foreign aid sectors by showing that the full scale of a country’s generosity Ambassador to includes tremendous assistance from the private sector. The Index demonstrates the United States that the most effective philanthropic bridge between industrialized countries and developing nations is built on private philanthropy, volunteerism, remittances, HUSAIN HAQQANI, a Fellow and public-private partnerships, not exclusively on official foreign aid. with Hudson’s Center for Islam, This year’s Index, released in May, breaks new ground with the results from the Democracy, and the Future of the first ever national random-sample survey of religious giving in the United States, Muslim World, who also co-edits undertaken by the University of Notre Dame’s Center for the Study of Religion the center’s journal Current Trends and Society, in partnership with the Center for Global Prosperity. The survey doc- in Islamist Ideology, has been offi- uments $8.8 billion in disaster and development assistance from U.S. religious cially designated Pakistan’s new Ambassador to the United States. congregations in 2006, the reference year for the Index. Haqqani will assume his post in “You can see people affecting the lives of other people in less fortunate circum- May and will have a broad portfolio stances,” Adelman says. Adelman also notes that private CONTINUED ON PAGE 23 of shaping Pakistan’s foreign and defense policies, including serving as a national security adviser to re - cently appointed Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani. Haqqani has served as Pakis - tan’s Ambassador to Sri Lanka and as a political adviser to Pakistani Prime Ministers Ghulam Mustafa Jatoi, Na waz Sharif, and Benazir Bhutto. “We congratulate Husain on his appointment, and look forward to supporting him in his new capacity at this important time in U.S.- Rob Buchanan, Director of International Pakistan relations,” Center Director Programs for the Council on Foundations, Hillel Fradkin said. with Senior Fellow Carol Adelman

SUMMER 2008 / HUDSON INSTITUTE 1 CONTENTS CHAIRMAN’S Summer 2008 LETTER

1 2008 INDEX OF GLOBAL Dear Friend of Hudson Institute: PHILANTHROPY In our spring newsletter I announced the beginning of The Campaign for Hudson— HUSAIN HAQQANI named together with my personal commitment to the campaign. I want to explain why I have embarked on this ambitious goal and reflect with you, as a fellow supporter of Hudson’s Pakistan’s Ambassador to work, on the value that the Institute brings to our society’s public policy debate. the United States Established in 1961 by the visionary strategist Herman Kahn, the Institute’s propen- sity for the unconventional has been our trademark and our strength. Kahn’s now 2 Chairman’s LETTER famous motto, “Thinking About the Unthinkable,” challenged Cold War strategists of the day to move be yond the realm of fear to find positive and real prospects for an oth- 3 Hudson MEDIA Highlights erwise bleak future. Challenges such as the War on Terror and energy security looming on today’s landscape are no less urgent. Understanding how to deal with these threats 4 Scholar in the Spotlight: demands the forward-looking, nonpartisan, and empirical scholarship Hudson offers. ZEYNO BARAN The true value of Hudson research is best demonstrated in the growth in our research staff—doubling since the decision to consolidate in Washington in 2004. As we grow, Hudson’s promise is to keep the focus on quality and innovative scholarship. This is why WALLACE O. SELLERS: we have set the main objective of the capital campaign to enable our scholars to explore In Memoriam cutting-edge issues, maintain a high level of independent thought, and foster our colle- gial interdisciplinary approach to complex issues. These unique aspects of Hudson schol- 5 Excerpts of Congressional arship are exemplified in the Scholar Spotlight on page four featuring Senior Fellow TESTIMONY by Hudson Zeyno Baran, whose expertise covers separate but very critical current subjects—the SCHOLARS Islamic world and the geopolitics of energy. For our scholarship to have purpose, we understand that our work has to have prac- 6 WAR AND DECISION tical results and reach policy and opinion makers. Hudson’s roster of scholars comprises Hudson Panel experienced government and business practitioners, such as our newest Senior Fellow Rod Hunter, former senior director for international economics at the White House and a former senior legal practitioner on EU legal and regulatory matters in Brussels. Our 7 Hudson UPDATES team of experienced research staff identifies not only where their work is needed, but where it may prove transformational. The Index of Global Philanthropy, produced by 8 Hudson EVENTS Senior Fellow Carol Adelman, and featured on the cover, is an exciting example of our scholars’ tangible success. 13 New York BRIEFING Across its wide-ranging coverage of international and domestic issues, Hudson COUNCIL embodies an admirable blend of skepticism about conventional wisdom and optimism about solving problems, combined with an abiding respect for the importance of values, 15 Hudson PUBLICATIONS culture, and religion in human affairs. In supporting Hudson, I am proud to contribute to an institution that cultivates 17 HERMAN KAHN’S workable public policies to promote global freedom, prosperity, and security. I know you, as a reader, also value our institution and ask you to show your support for Hudson suppressed legacy during the next few important years. by MAX SINGER

18 COMMENTARY

Photos on page 7 and for Hudson Events by Rachel DiCarlo Currie and Philip Ross ALLAN R. TESSLER Chairman

2 HUDSON INSTITUTE / SUMMER 2008 HUDSON MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS

■ France 24 ■ NPR ■ NBC News Amy Kauffman discusses the Diana Furchtgott-Roth on Nina Shea on Christian persecu- Democratic primaries / May 7 equal pay / April 24 tion in Iraq / March 13

■ C-SPAN ■ France 24 TV Herbert London on Cold War Kenneth Weinstein on the politics / May 3 Democratic primaries April 23 ■ C-SPAN Richard Weitz on Afghanistan ■ Radio Free Europe May 2 Meyrav Wurmser discusses the Israeli-Palestinian peace process ■ NPR April 23 Alex Avery on genetically-modified food / March 6 ■ C-SPAN Richard Miniter featured on current ■ Global National TV events / April 23 Christopher Sands interviewed on NAFTA / March 6 ■ CNN Espan˜ ol ■ Today Show Jaime Daremblum on radical pop- ■ CNN Zeyno Baran interviewed on ulism in Latin America / April 3 David Satter on the Russian Turkish culture / May 1 elections / March 2

■ CNBC Dennis Avery on biofuel / April 25

■ Fox Business Channel John Weicher on the mort gage market / April 25 ■ BBC Irwin Stelzer interviewed on taxes ■ C-SPAN April 21 Paul Marshall on religious freedom February 24 ■ BBC Laurent Murawiec discusses the ■ PBS Iraq war, five years later Carol Adelman interviewed on March 19 foreign aid / February 23

SUMMER 2008 / HUDSON INSTITUTE 3 In Memoriam: SCHOLAR IN THE SPOTLIGHT ZEYNO BARAN WALLACE O. SELLERS Trustee Emeritus

ZEYNO BARAN is a Senior Fellow and Director of Hudson Institute’s Center for Eu- WALLACE O. SELLERS, a Hud- rasian Policy. Her unique scholarship foc uses on developing strategies to thwart the spread son Institute Trustee from 1984 until of radical Islamist ideology in Europe and in Eurasia and promoting democracy and ener- 2007 with ser vice on the Executive Committee and as Chairman of the gy reform processes across Eurasia. Because of her tireless work, Hudson President Herbert Investment Committee, passed away London has described her as “one of the great voices for moderation in the Muslim world.” on May 5, 2008. “Wally Sellers, who Baran’s work has appeared in Newsweek, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, served Hud son Ins ti tute with such Weekly Standard, Foreign Affairs, and many other publications. She has provided com - gra cious commitment, will be missed mentary for CNN, Fox News, the NewsHour, the Today Show, NPR, the BBC, and other by all who had the pleasure of work- outlets. ing with him,” Hudson Chairman The recent edition of Current Trends in Islamist Ideology, published by Hudson Insti- Emeritus Walter Stern said. tute’s Center for Islam, Democracy, and the Future of the Muslim World, features an essay During his lengthy and distin- by Baran detailing the Muslim Brotherhood’s network of organizations in the United States. guished career, Sellers held senior man agement and leadership posi- In April, Baran edited a white paper, The Azerbaijan-Turkey-U.S. Relation ship and Its tions with organizations as diverse as Importance for Eurasia. The paper provides a summary of the conclusions and recommen- Enhance Financial Services Group, dations from an international conference on trilateral cooperation among Azerbaijan, Inc; Natural Gas Services, Inc; FCIA; Turkey, and the United States. This conference—the first of its kind—took place in Wash- the Association of Financial Guaranty ington, D.C., and was co-organized by Hudson Institute, the Central-Asia Caucasus Insti- Insurers; the Public Securities Associ- tute at Johns Hopkins University, and the Azerbaijan Turkey Business Association. ation (now The Bond Market Associ- Baran has testified numerous times before congressional committees on issues ranging ation); and Merrill Lynch. He was ap - from U.S.-Turkey relations to political develop- pointed by the SEC as one of the or ig i nal members of the Mun icipal ments in the South Caucasus and integration and Securities Rulemaking Board. radicalization issues in Europe. Sellers also undertook many char- Before joining Hudson, Baran directed the itable endeavors. In addition to his International Security and Ener gy Programs at the role at Hudson, he was a member of Nixon Center. Through writings, seminars and the board of overseers at Roger Wil - briefings, Baran helped American policymakers liams University. He active ly support- and opinion leaders understand Eur asia’s politi- ed numerous archeological excava- cal, economic, and social dynamics, as well as the tions, the Initiative to Educate Afghan U.S. interests served by an effective partnership Women, andTrinity Episcopal Church of Solebury, Pennsylvania. with key allies. We extend our deepest sympathy From 1999 until December 2002, Baran to his family and friends . worked as Director of the Caucasus Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. In recognition of her prominent contribution to the development of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the South Caucasus gas pipeline projects, she was awarded with the Order of Honor by Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze. Baran received her M.A. in international economic development and her B.A. in political science from Stanford University. Her work on the compatibility of Islam and democracy received the Firestone Medal for Stanford’s most outstanding political science/international relations honors thesis in 1996.

4 HUDSON INSTITUTE / SUMMER 2008 EXCERPTS OF CONGRESSIONAL TESTIMONY BY HUDSON SCHOLARS

sure cuffs, and other equipment…. are not some occasional crackdowns or BETSY MCCAUGHEY’S The CDC’s guidelines for hospital waves of brutality when the government testimony on hospital cleanliness are so vague as to be mean- feels particularly threatened. They are infections before the ingless. In this country, restaurants are built into the system; they are con- House Committee on inspected for cleanliness. But hospitals, stitutionally and legally mandated; they Government Oversight and even operating rooms, are not. Hos- are a means of control, of Muslims as pitals used to routinely test surfaces for well as non-Muslims, an integral part of and Reform bacterial levels, but in 1970 the CDC its power and ideology. April 16 and the American Hospital Association It is important to emphasize that, as held a joint press conference and advised elsewhere throughout the world, reli- For several years, the Centers for Disease hospitals to stop testing for bacterial lev- gious freedom issues do not exist in a Control has emphasized the importance els. Even now, as MRSA infections have corner. They affect not only minorities of doctors and nurses cleaning their increased 32 times over, the CDC contin- but reveal to us some of the most impor- hands. Cleaning hands is essential. But ues to adhere to that position. tant dynamics of our world. The reg- it’s only the first step. As long as hospi- ime’s intensifying and systematic perse- tals are inadequately cleaned, doctors’ cution of its religious minorities, coupled and nurses’ hands will become reconta- PAUL MARSHALL’S with proposed changes to its draconian minated seconds after they wash and put testimony on human penal code, reveals something of the gov- on gloves—as soon as they touch a key - rights in Iran before ernment’s nature, and also sheds some board, a privacy curtain, or a bed rail. the United States Com - light on the question of whether the How dirty are hospitals? A recent survey mission on International regime remains a revolutionary one, or of 49 operating rooms in four New Eng - aspires only to international acceptance Religious Freedom land hospitals found that over half of the and regional power. February 21 surfaces in the operating room that were supposed to be disinfected by hospital cleaners were left uncleaned. A follow- The Iranian government is one of the NINA SHEA’S up survey of over 1,100 patients’ rooms world’s worst religious persecutors and for briefing to the found that over half the surfaces that are this reason alone deserves our major atten- Congressional Human supposed to be cleaned when one tion. All of Iran’s religious minorities— Rights Caucus patient is discharged from a room, be- Baha’is, Assyrian Christians, Cath olics, Task Force fore another patient is admitted, were Anglicans, Armenians, Evangelicals, Man- April 29 not cleaned. Research shows that near- deans, Jews, and Zoroas trians —have suf- ly three-fourths of surfaces in hospitals fered. Their numbers have steadily dwin d- are contaminated with bacteria such as led as they have fled religious op pression in MRSA and VRE, which can survive for their homeland; the presence of the ancient Documenting human rights abuses in 96 hours. Numerous studies link hospi- Assyrians and Mandeans is ap proach ing North Korea is extraordinarily difficult tal infections to these bacteria on un - statistical in significance. because it is one of the most closed soci- clean EKG wires, unclean blood-pres- Moreover Iran’s religious restrictions eties in the world. Little is known about

SUMMER 2008 / HUDSON INSTITUTE 5 Continued from page 5 the full extent of religious persecution and the extent of underground activity. WAR AND DECISION What can be said unequivocally is that it’s one of the world’s worst persecutors. The Center of Religious Freedom’s new World Survey on Religious Freedom ranks North Korea at the very lowest of its religious freedom scale. The U.S. State Department also designates North Korea as a “country of particular concern” for egregious persecution. There are several hundred Buddhist temples in North Korea, but most appear to be historical cultural sites, rather than active religious centers. Although fifty years ago the capital of Pyongyang was PAUL WOLFOWITZ nicknamed “Asia’s Jerusalem” because of the strong influence of Christianity, Hudson Institute recently convened the first comprehensive dis- there are now only four churches—two cussion of the war in Iraq and its aftermath to feature former lead- Protestant, one Catholic, and one Orth- ing Bush administration officials, including PAUL WOLF O WITZ, odox. All are located in the capital and DOUGLAS FEITH, DAN SENOR, and PETER ROD MAN. The event seem to be used solely to impress West- drew leading members of the press, including seven camera crews ern observers. No Roman Catholic for networks including C-SPAN, CBS, CNN, NHK, and Al-Hurra Iraq; priests live in the country, so the sacra- and reporters from Newsweek and the Washington Post. The ments cannot be administered even in the event, on the occasion of the recent release of Feith’s book War showplace church. Foreign journalists and Decision, was a compelling retrospective. Panelists engaged in who have attended services in the a frank discussion of the errors committed, including the poor churches reported that neither the con- post-war planning and inability to preempt the insurgency, and a gregants nor the national leader of the lengthy discussion of how the United States became an occupying government-controlled Protestant Fed- authority in Iraq. For a transcript, audio, and video, please visit er ation could name the first three books www.hudson.org/events. of the Bible. Others who went unan- nounced on Easter Sunday found the churches locked and empty. Christianity is perceived by authorities to be a threat, with the potential of undermining the Kim dynasty. Underground Christians have told foreign groups that they fear being exe- cuted on the spot if they are caught in possession of the Scriptures. Defectors report that Christians are given the heav- iest work, the least amount of food, and

DOUGLAS FEITH, PETER RODMAN, AND DAN SENOR suffer the worst conditions in prison. Those caught praying in prison are beat- en and tortured.

6 HUDSON INSTITUTE / SUMMER 2008 HUDSON UPDATES CHEVALIER DE L’ORDRE DES ARTS ET DES LETTRES

SENIOR FELLOW and his expertise in critical issues cur- ROD HUNTER rently faced by the United States, will place him at the center of Hudson’s work on trade and investment,” Hudson CEO Kenneth Weinstein says. Hunter received his B.A. from Hamp- den-Sydney College and his J.D. from the Hudson Chief Executive University of Virginia. Officer KENNETH WEINSTEIN was awarded one of the highest honors of KATHERINE SMYTH the French Republic when Ambassador Pierre Vimont Hudson Institute welcomes Senior Fellow officiated as Weinstein was Rod Hunter, an expert on interna- presented with the title of tional economies, the European Union, CHEVALIER DE L’ORDRE trade, energy, and the environment. Hun- DES ARTS ET DES LETTRES ter served until mid-2007 as Special Assis- in a private ceremony at the tant to the President and Senior Director French Ambas sador's resi- at the National Security Council. While at dence in Washington, D.C. the NSC, he was responsible for coordi- Weinstein, Ambassador nating the administration’s policies on Vimont noted, was awarded international economics, including trade, Katherine Smyth has joined Hud- this honorary knighthood for fi nance, investment, energy, and the envi- son Institute as Corporate Secretary and his critical work on improving ronment. Prior to joining the NSC, Hun- Program Manager. As Corporate Secre- U.S.-French relations in the ter served from 2001 to 2003 as Special tary, Smyth serves as primary liaison to aftermath of the Iraq war and Counsel in the Office of the United States the Hudson Institute Board of Trustees, for his scholarship on French Trade Representative. and is responsible for all corporate docu- political philosophy. From 1989 to 2001, Hunter practiced mentation, oversight, and admin istration. law in Brussels, where he handled EU and In her capacity as Program Manager, she member state legal and regulatory mat- will facilitate the development of the Insti- ters. While in Brussels, he also served as tute’s research programs. Director for Regulatory Studies and She previously worked in management Chairman of the Board of Directors of the and programmatic positions at think Centre for the New Europe. tanks, including the International Insti- Earlier in his career, Hunter served as a tute for Strategic Studies and the Center Judicial Clerk for Chief Justice Sir Antho- for Strategic and International Studies. ny Mason, High Court of Australia, and She holds a B.A. in history and Greek and for Judge Boyce Martin, U.S. Sixth Circuit Roman civilization and an M.A. in histo- Court of Appeals, and as an assistant to ry of international relations from Univer- Senator John Warner. “We anticipate that sity College Dublin and an M.A. in secu- Rod’s extensive record of public service, rity studies from Georgetown University.

SUMMER 2008 / HUDSON INSTITUTE 7 Hudson EVENTS

MAY

CRISIS IN LEBANON: THE EMERGENCE OF A HEZBALLAH STATE?

Following the recent decision of Lebanese Prime Fouad Min- ister Siniora’s government to sanction and dismantle Hezbal- lah’s illegal activities, the organization and its allied militias have begun instigating violent clashes in the streets of Beirut. After taking control of several Beirut neighborhoods and media outlets, the Iranian and Syrian-backed group is now attempting a military takeover of Beirut. Given the muted U.S. and Arab response to the current and most violent stage of this Mark Steyn speaking at Hudson Institute’s crisis, is a free Lebanon on the brink of collapse? How will the New York Briefing Series potential defeat of moderate and democratic forces in a free Lebanon reverberate across the country and the region? Panelists for this discussion included Firas Maksad, Ex- ecutive Director of the Lebanese Renaissance Foundation; Tony Badran, a Research Fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies; Hussein Abdul Hussein, Washing- ton Correspondent for Kuwait’s Al Rai Newspaper; David Wurmser, former Senior Middle East Adviser, Office of the Vice President; and Hassan Mneimneh, Executive Director of the Iraq Memory Foundation. Meyrav Wurmser, Direc- tor of Hudson’s Center for Middle East Policy, moderated.

FAILURE TO LAUNCH: IS SERVICE A PATH TO PURPOSE?

This is a selection of recent events held In his new book, The Path to Purpose: Helping Our Children at Hudson Institute. For transcripts, Find Their Calling in Life, Stanford University’s William summaries, photographs, and audio of Damon reports that only about a fifth of today’s youth can all events, please visit www.hudson.org. express a clear sense of what they are trying to accomplish in

8 HUDSON INSTITUTE / SUMMER 2008 Amb. Jaime Daremblum, Carol Adelman, Daniel Kaufmann, and Adolfo Franco

S. Enders Wimbush, Joris Voorhoeve, S. Fredrick Starr, and Richard Weitz the world and why. Can young people develop a sense of pur- during stable, secure, prosperous, and democratic state, res - pose through participating in nation al and community service? pectful of human rights and free from the threat of terrorism.” Hudson’s Bradley Center for Philanthropy and Civic Re- Discussing how NATO might realize these admirable newal convened a panel to discuss Damon’s book. In addi- but challenging objectives, panelists included Joris Voor - tion to Damon, discussants included Corporation for Na - hoeve, leader of the Netherlands People’s Party for Free - tional and Community Service CEO David Eisner; Shirley dom and Democracy from 1986-1990 and former Dutch Sagawa, a primary architect of President Clinton’s nation- Minister of Defense; S. Frederick Starr, Chairman of the al service program, and a cofounder of the con sulting firm Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies sagawa/jospin; and Joe Staszak-Rod riguez, Outreach Program and a Research Professor at SAIS, Johns Hopkins Man ager of City Year Greater Phila delphia. Bradley Center University; and Richard Weitz, a Hudson Senior Fellow. Director William Schambra moderated the discussion. S. Enders Wimbush, Hudson Senior Vice President for International Programs and Policy, and Director of Hud- TRANSPARENCY IN GOVERNMENTS, son’s Center for Future Security Strategies, moderated. BUSINESS, AND FOREIGN AID TO LATIN AMERICA WAR AND DECISION: INSIDE THE PENTAGON AT THE DAWN OF THE WAR This event, organized by Hudson Institute’s Center for Latin ON TERRORISM American Studies, and directed by Ambassador Jaime Dar- emblum addressed the necessity of political accountability in Douglas Feith’s book was discussed by Paul Wolfowitz, dispersing foreign aid. Discus sants includ ed Carol Adelman, an American Enterprise Institute Visiting Scholar, former Director of Hudson’s Center for Global Philanthropy; Daniel Deputy Secretary of Defense, and former President of the Kaufmann, Director of Global Programs at the World Bank World Bank; Peter Rodman, a Brook ings Institution Senior Institute; and Adolfo Franco, Vice President for Glo bal Reg- Fellow and former Assistant Secretary for Defense and ulatory Affairs at the Direct Selling Association. Adviser to the National Security Council; and Dan Senor, former Senior Adviser to Presidential Envoy L. Paul Bremer III, Administrator of the Coalition Provisional Authority; APRIL and Hudson Institute CEO Kenneth Weinstein. Please see page 6 for more details. NATO AND AFGHANISTAN: THE NEXT PHASE THE EFFECTS OF HIGH-GROWTH FIRMS ON THE ECONOMY The April NATO summit in Bucharest characterized the alliance’s commitment to Afghanistan as “our top priority.” At this concluding event of Hudson Institute’s Center for The NATO governments set the goal of establishing “an en - Employment Policy’s Entrepreneurship series, Erik Stam,

SUMMER 2008 / HUDSON INSTITUTE 9 David Waguespack, Irwin Greg Anderson, Adrean Rothkopf, Christopher Sands, Stelzer, Diana Furchtgott-Roth, and Arman Peschard-Sverdrup and Erik Stam

a Fellow of the Advanced Institute of Management Re - MANDATING CULTURAL MUNIFICENCE? search at Cambridge University, discussed his paper, “High Growth Entrepreneurs, Public Policies and Eco nomic Early in 2008, the California State Assembly approved AB Growth.” 624, legislation that would require private foundations Irwin Stelzer, Director of Hudson’s Center for Eco no - with more than $250 million in assets to gather and dis- mic Policy Studies, and David Waguespack, Assistant close substantial ethnic and gender data relating to their Professor of Management at the University of Maryland governance and grantmaking. School of Business, provided commentary. Diana Is AB 624 a good idea? Or is the pursuit of diversity in Furchtgott-Roth, Dir ec tor of Hudson’s Center for Em- philanthropy something that rather should be left to volun- ployment Policy, moderated. tary initiatives by foundations and their associations? These and other questions were addressed by a panel convened by NORTH AMERICA AT NEW ORLEANS: Hudson Institute’s Bradley Center. Discussants included THE FUTURE OF NAFTA AND THE SPP John Gamboa, President of the Greenlining Institute in California, which completed the research behind AB 624; As U.S. presidential candidates have threatened to cancel Renee Branch, Director of Diversity and Inclusive Practices or renegotiate NAFTA, Canadian and Mexican leaders at the Council on Foundations; Heather Richardson Hig- gathered in New Orleans for a trilateral summit to discuss gins, President of the Randolph Foundation; and Pablo U.S. trade policy after the Bush administration. What role Eisenberg, a Georgetown Univer sity Scholar and advocate will the Security and Prosperity Partnership (SPP) play, for philanthropic change. William Schambra, Director of especially in eliminating non-tariff barriers, streamlining the Bradley Center, moderated. inspections and regulations, and seeking agreement on standards for security and product safety? IRAN’S GROWING PRESENCE Panelists included Hudson Senior Fellow Christopher IN LATIN AMERICA Sands; Greg Anderson, a Professor at the University of Alberta, who recently co-authored with Sands a study of This event was convened by Hudson Institute’s Center for the SPP entitled Negotiating North America: The Security Latin American Studies, directed by Ambassador Jaime and Prosperity Partnership (Hudson Institute); Armand Daremblum. Panelists discussed how Iran has increased Peschard-Sverdrup, a CSIS Senior Associate; Adrean its influence in Latin America—particularly by breeding Roth kopf, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Managing anti-American sentiment, agitating the U.S. war on terror, Director for North and Central America; Hudson Senior and frustrating Latin America’s attempts to promote Fellow Rod Hunter; U.S. Undersecretary of Commerce democracy throughout the region. Christopher Padilla; Bloomberg News Editor Mark Discussants included Brian Fonseca, Senior Political Drajem; and Progressive Policy Institute Fellow Edward and Security Analyst at Florida International University’s Gresser. Western Hemisphere Security Analysis Center, and Julio

10 HUDSON INSTITUTE / SUMMER 2008 Kenneth Weinstein, Hillel Fradkin, and Irving Kristol

Renee Branch, John Gamboa, William Schambra, Heather Higgins, and Pablo Eisenberg

Cirino, a historian, journalist, and Director of Interna tional cal scientist at Claremont McKenna College, answers that Relations with the Fundacion Pensar in Buenos Aires. Hillel question and many others in his new book Alexandre Fradkin, Director of Hudson’s Center for Islam, Democra- Kojève: Wisdom at the End of History. cy, and the Future of the Muslim World, moderated. Hudson Institute hosted Fukuyama and Nichols for a discussion of Kojève’s political thought. Commentary was THE FACES OF RADICAL POPULISM IN given by Nathan Tarcov, a Professor of Political Theory at LATIN AMERICA University of Chicago, and Hillel Fradkin, Director of Hudson’s Center for Islam, Democracy, and the Future of Hudson Institute’s Center for Latin American Studies spon - the Muslim World. sored this panel examining populist movements. Follow ing introductory remarks from Center Director Ambassador ADVICE FOR AHMADINEJAD: Jaime Dar emblum, Katrina Burgess, an Associate Pro- THE IRANIAN OUTLOOK AND fessor of International Political Economy at the Fletch er LESSONS FOR US School of Tufts University, discussed the future of populism in Venezuela, Bolivia, and Ecuador. Carlos Fern ando Iran has been at the center of America’s foreign policy Chamorro, an editor of the weekly publication Confiden - debate, but little is known about the ideas that shape Iran’s cial (Nicaragua) talked about Sandi nismo and populism in own domestic and foreign agenda, including its nuclear Nicaragua. Robert Pfaltzgraff, President of the Institute ambitions and its policies in Iraq, Afghanistan, and else- for Foreign Policy Analysis, moderated. where in the Middle East. To shed some light on the sources of Iran’s outlook and strategy, Ze’ev Maghen, a lecturer in Middle Eastern history at Israel’s Bar-Ilan Uni - MARCH versity and a leading Israeli specialist on modern Iran, Shiism, and Persian Gulf politics, discussed the modern THE MAN WHO ENDED HISTORY: history of radical Iranian thought and how this informs ALEXANDRE KOJÈVE current events and world politics. Hillel Fradkin, Director of Hudson’s Center on Islam, In his 1991 book, The End of History and the Last Man, Democracy, and the Future of the Muslim World, chaired Francis Fukuyama presented his now-famous thesis that the discussion. the end of the Cold War and the triumph of liberal democracies ended the struggle between political ideologies. As IRANIAN TEXTBOOKS: PREPARING Fukuyama acknowledged, his thoughts drew heavily on IRAN’S CHILDREN FOR GLOBAL JIHAD the work of Russo-French philosopher and French bureaucrat Alexandre Kojève. But who was Kojève, and As debates rage about Iran’s nuclear intentions, education- what did he think? Professor James H. Nichols, a politi- al textbooks may serve as one of the more candid guides for

SUMMER 2008 / HUDSON INSTITUTE 11 Jeffrey Goldberg, Meyrav Wurmser, and Shmuel Rosner

Hillel Fradkin, Mark Siegel, and Husain Haqqani

discerning the regime’s worldview and ideology. The Center Hillel Fradkin, Director of Hudson’s Center on Islam, Dem- for Monitoring the Impact of Peace in the Middle East ocracy and the Future of the Muslim World, moderated. (CMIP) has recently published the most comprehensive survey on this subject, and argues that Iranian textbooks indoc- ALLIES AND ENERGY: trinate students into the global jihadi mindset. These books POLAND, THE UNITED STATES, AND depict a regime that divides the world into Manichean TRANSATLANTIC COOPERATION forces of “good” and “evil” that are destined to clash. To better clarify these and related issues, Arnon Groiss, Over the past decade, Poland has emerged as a key Euro - Director of the Research at CMIP, and Shayan Arya,a pean ally of the United States. Although this partnership member of the Constitutionalist Party of Iran and a Fellow extends across many issues, energy security is of particu- at CMIP, discussed the report’s findings, as well as the impli- lar interest to both countries. This event examined the role cations for the United States and the rest of the internation- that transatlantic cooperation—particularly between al community. Meyrav Wurmser, Director of Hudson’s Poland and the United States—can play in enhancing Center for Middle East Policy, moderated. Europe’s energy security. Discussants included Polish Foreign Minister Rado - slaw Sikorski; Zeyno Baran, Director of Hudson’s Cen - FEBRUARY ter for Eurasian Studies; Hudson Senior Fellow John O’Sullivan; Robert Kupiecki, Director of the Depart- BENAZIR BHUTTO’S LAST ment of Security Policy, Ministry of Foreign Affairs; Kurt TESTAMENT Volker, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs; Grzegorz Gawin, Deputy Former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto left be - Director of the Polish Department of Foreign Economic hind a political testament completed shortly before her Policy at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs; and Matthew death which has now been published as a book entitled Bryza, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European Reconciliation: Islam, Democracy and the West.Her and Eurasian Affairs. Hudson CEO Kenneth Weinstein book was meant not only to be read in her native land, gave the introduction. but throughout the Muslim world. It is the first book by a major Muslim political leader that presents a principled Subscribe to HUDSON HEADLINES, argument for moderation and tolerance and provides a a weekly electronic bulletin of Hudson critique of radical Islam. publications, events, and commentary. Commentary for this event was given by the book’s co- author Mark Siegel, a longtime friend of Bhutto, and Send request via email to: Husain Haqqani, a former adviser to Bhutto and recently [email protected]. appointed Pakistani Ambassador to the United States.

12 HUDSON INSTITUTE / SUMMER 2008 HUDSON INSTITUTE’S NEW YORK BRIEFING COUNCIL

Speakers from the spring 2008 edition of Hudson Institute’s New York Briefing Council, hosted by Hudson President Herbert London, include:

MARK STEYN, March 26: “Thought Police” WILLIAM KRISTOL, April 15: “2008: Who Loses?” CHRISTOPHER HITCHENS, April 23: “Self-Censorship” PAUL MARSHALL, April 28: “Religious Freedom” MINXIN PEI, April 30: “The China Bubble” BRET STEPHENS, May 2: “Radicalism and Reform” RAY KELLY, May 6: “Intelligence” JOHN BOLTON, May 8: “Critical Uncertainties” HERBERT LONDON, May 13: “The Secularist God” ZALMAY KHALILZAD, May 19: “The U.N. & Durban” Herbert London with Zalmay Khalilzad. HENRY KISSINGER, May 22: “Global Objectives” London was recently awarded the Republican Congressional LAWRENCE SUMMERS, May 28: “Buying America” Medal of Distinction. STUART LEVEY, June 2: “Money Laundering” DOUGLAS FEITH, June 5: “What Really Happened” S. ENDERS WIMBUSH, TBD: “Strategic Crossroads” PAUL WOLFOWITZ, TBD: “Corruption”

This is a subscription-only series. For more information, please contact Vijay Kumar at 212-476-8064 or email [email protected]

SUMMER 2008 / HUDSON INSTITUTE 13 HUDSON ON You www.youtube.com/hudsoninstitute

Hudson Institute is pleased to announce the creation of a channel on the user-generated video website YouTube.com. In ad dition to enhancing Hudson’s global visibili- ty, the channel allows viewers to browse videos ranging from excerpts of conferences held at the Institute, to Hud son schol ars’ inter- views on news channels around the world, to timely in-house inter- views showcasing a scholar’s body of expertise. Please visit Hud son Institute’s channel at www.youtube.com/ hudsoninstitute.

Clockwise from top left, Husain Haqqani, Zeyno Baran, S. Enders Wimbush with Christopher Sands, Hillel Fradkin, and Anne Bayefsky.

14 HUDSON INSTITUTE / SUMMER 2008 ■ America’s ■ The Azerbaijan-Turkey- Secular Challenge: U.S. Relationship and Its The Rise of a New Importance for Eurasia National Religion Edited by Zeyno Baran By Herbert London (Hudson Institute) (Encounter) This paper, also translated into Turkish In this timely and wide-ranging book, and Azerbaijani, provides a summary Hudson President Herbert London and conclusions from a conference co- argues that the pervasive culture of secu- organized by Hudson Institute about larism in the United States is an inade- tri laterial cooperation in Eurasia among quate response to the challenge of radical Azerbaijan, Turkey, and the United Islam. As London explains, in the so- States. The conference participants, in - called war of ideas, our reflexive belief in cluding Zeyno Baran, Director of Hud- relativism has handicapped our ability to son’s Cen ter for Eurasian Policy, found thwart the inroads of fanaticism. that each of the three countries is eager Taken together, traditional religion, to bolster trilateral relations, but num - Secularism, multiculturalism and cultural relativism, erous disagreements exist about the ex - materialism, and the belief in scientific pec ted nature of that relationship and Eurasia, rationality as the ultimate arbiter of hu - the role that each country should play. m an value underwrite a view of life that Moreover, while the three countries Global is ill equipped to meet the challenge of a agree on the desired goals for the re- Philanthropy, zealous enemy with totalitarian ambi- gion, there is no consensus about how tions. In undermining the traditional to achieve those objectives. Latin America, roots of America, secular humanism has destroyed the West’s only beliefs worth ■ Current Trends: Volume VI and more defending. Edited by Hillel Fradkin, Eric This anemic remodeling of our culture Brown, and Husain Haqqani has left us exposed in the monumental (Hudson Institute) battle against ideological forces with radical global ambitions. Ameri ca’s Sec u lar Published twice a year by Hudson’s Cen- Challenge is a sobering wake-up call and ter on Islam, Democracy, and the Future a battle plan for the political and existen- of the Muslim World, Current Trends tial trials of the twenty-first century. draws on an international consortium of

SUMMER 2008 / HUDSON INSTITUTE 15 scholars and writers to provide in-depth cusses these challenges and others, as well small-business creation and destruction, analysis of the ideas, activities, and strate- as many recent encour ag ing develop- explain the low rate of self-employment gies that shape Islamist movements in ments, including the rise of democracies, among Mexican immigrants, and suggest Asia, the Middle East, and the West. The healthy economies, and burgeoning mid- how pension coverage can be increased in sixth volume of Current Trends, newly dle classes in many of the region’s coun- small businesses. redesigned, is a special issue devoted to tries. Daremblum also points to several The book concludes with an essay on the Muslim Brother hood movement, its policy prescriptions the United States what defines an entrepreneur. The con- history and prospects in the U.S., Europe, could undertake to continue to promote tributors argue that policymakers do not and the Middle East. It includes essays prosperity in Latin America, such as need to create incentives for entrepreneurs about the history and unwritten future of trade agreements, anti-poverty measures, to create new businesses, though there is a Salafism, the Brotherhood’s U.S., Middle and student exchange programs. great deal they can do to encourage entre- Eastern, and European networks; an es- preneurship by removing legal and eco- say by a reporter who has been covering ■ Overcoming Barriers nomic roadblocks to business creation. the Holy Land Foundation trial in Texas; to Entrepreneurship in and an essay by a Danish Member of Par- the United States ■ The Index of Global liament who started a new party of Dem- Edited by Philanthropy 2008 ocratic Muslims in Denmark. De tails Diana Furchtgott-Roth (Hudson Institute) available at www.CurrentTrends .org. (Rowman & Littlefield) Hudson Institute’s Center for Global ■ How to Strengthen In Overcoming Barriers to Entre pren- Prosperity has published its third annu- Democracy in Latin eurship, Diana Furchtgott-Roth, Direc- al Index of Global Philanthropy, which America tor of Hudson’s Center for Employment is featured on the cover. Details of this By Jaime Daremblum Policy, has compiled a volume of six publication are available at (Hudson Institute) essays about the real and perceived barri- www.gpr.hudson.org. ers to starting and running small busi- Staff contributing to this ground- Adapted from a speech given by Jaime nesses in America. break ing volume include: Director Carol Daremblum, former Ambassador of Cos - The contributors explain how policy Adelman, Editor Darrell Dela maide, ta Rica to the United States and Dir ector can hinder business owners and suggest Senior Analysts Jeremiah Norris and of Hudson’s Center for Latin American which policies can help them. Beginning Judith Siegel, Programs Manager Sam- Studies, this monograph outlines some with an essay on venture capital access in antha Grayson, Research Assistant ongoing challenges facing Latin America. Silicon Valley during the Internet bubble, Catherine Fisher, and interns David John These include poverty, radical populism, other essays question the link between Baker, Ingrid Bjerke, Taylor Bolz, Cafer education, and the continuing struggle to personal wealth and entrepreneurship, Orman, Adrienne Tygenhof, and Kevin adapt to globalization. Dar emblum dis- investigate how federal tax rates effect Waskelis.

16 HUDSON INSTITUTE / SUMMER 2008 HERMAN KAHN’S SUPPRESSED LEGACY

Max Singer, Herman Kahn (seated left), Oscar Ruebhausen (standing)

BY MAX SINGER man Kahn’s works as required reading. Kahn never advocated nuclear war and Payne believes that Kahn is the main never suggested that it would be a good Hudson founder Herman Kahn never alternative to current mainstream stra- idea for the U.S. to start a nuclear war. lived in a post-Cold War or post 9/11 tegic thought based on the writings of The primary purpose of his analysis world. But as the 35th anniversary of his Tom Schelling, who recently received of nuclear war was to identify the best death approaches, new kinds of danger of the Nobel Prize for his work. Most of ways to prevent war and to design U.S. nuclear war suggest it is time to re member the few faculties that teach these sub- nuclear policy to minimize damage if nu - Kahn’s ideas about nuclear strategy. jects are not interested in presenting clear war was not prevented. His mes- Kahn’s writings on nuclear war are alternatives to the reigning orthodoxy sage was that if the United States and the rare ly assigned to students taking rele- —and some do not even realize that Soviet Union continued to possess nu - vant courses, but not because they have such an alternative exists. Payne will clear weapons it would be irresponsible been overtaken by events or improved soon publish a book arguing that expe- not to recognize that there was some upon by other thinkers. Keith Payne, rience provides more support to the an- possibility that they might be used, and who worked at Hudson before starting alysis of Kahn than to that of Schelling. im moral not to design policies, defenses, the National Institute for Public Policy Those who don’t read Kahn’s writ- and plans to minimize the harm if they and becoming one of the leading stra- ings often use various strawmen to dis- were. That mes sage put him square ly tegists in the country, runs the excep- miss or discredit him. For example, it is against the reigning wisdom of the time tional graduate program in the Wash- sometimes implied that he advocated which em braced the notion of mutual ington, D.C., branch of Defense and nuclear war by analyzing how some vul nerability and a “balance of terror.” Stra tegic Studies of Missouri State Uni- might consider nuclear wars to be Earlier that message had put him in versity. Payne’s program includes Her- “win nable” and “survivable.” In fact, conflict with Air CONTINUED ON PAGE 23

SUMMER 2008 / HUDSON INSTITUTE 17 by Congress last December. Congress mandated the production of nine billion gallons of ethanol or other renew- able fuels this year; that number will Commentary gradually increase until it reaches 36 billion gallons in 2022.

Edmonton Journal (Canada), April 19

For full-length copies of each of the follow- way—they are still paying for it. The U.N. CHRISTOPHER SANDS AND ing excerpts, as well as archives of each Secretariat revealed a new end-run around GREG ANDERSON scholar’s body of work, please visit individ- the U.S. promise not to fund Durban II. “TRILATERAL DIALOGUE IS ual scholars’ pages at www.hudson.org. The Secretariat announced that they had WORTH THE EFFORT” cut their original $7 million price tag for Wall Street Journal, May 9 the preparatory side of Durban II in half. March of this year marked the third The other half will be “absorbed in exist- anniversary of the launch of the North DAVID SATTER ing resources”—a euphemism for using American Security and Prosperity Part - “PUTIN CHANGES JOBS funds already in U.N. coffers, 22 percent nership (SPP). When Prime Minis ter —AND RUSSIA” of which are from American taxes. Wash- Stephen Harper and Presidents George ington is now faced with en sur ing that Bush and Felipe Calderon gather in Dmitri Medvedev was sworn in as presi- this brazen attempt to avoid official New Orleans, they will have plenty to dent of the Russian Federation in the American policy does not succeed. And talk about: A weakening Ameri can ec- Great Kremlin Palace. But the Russian the EU is faced with the impossible task of onomy, the anti-trade rhetoric of the political elite has no idea whether Med- keeping a straight face while speechifying U.S. presidential campaign, and of vedev will be the real president or only a that Durban II is good for human rights. course the omnipresent issues swirling figurehead. Neither do the voters. around border security will be front

Formally, the Russian president has The American Online, April 22 and center in New Orleans. enormous power. He is commander in In one way or another, each of the chief of the armed forces, can hire and DIANA FURCHTGOTT-ROTH initiatives announced in New Orleans fire the prime minister, appoint minis- “THE CASE FOR ENDING will be cast as addressing this thicket of ters, dissolve the parliament, and set the ETHANOL SUBSIDIES” problems. Yet there is a more funda- main lines of the country’s foreign and mental question that will hang over domestic policy. But Medvedev may not Just in time for today’s Earth Day fes- New Orleans: Is the SPP the right vehi- be free to exercise his authority. tivities, President Bush has announced cle for negotiating North America? We Vladimir Putin promised he would re- a new initiative to combat global believe the answer is yes. tire from politics in 2008. But everything warm ing. He set a goal of stopping the now indicates that he will continue to growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) emis- New York Post, April 15 play the main role in the government. sions by 2025 and reducing emissions thereafter. But rather than plan for JOHN O’SULLIVAN National Review Online, April 23 2025 —which is another two or three “BENEDICT’S CHARGE FOR presidencies away—Bush should imme- AMERICA” ANNE BAYEFSKY diately fix his ethanol policy, which is “REDEFINING ANTI-SEMITISM” increasing GHG emissions and raising Americans will hope to hear the pope’s food prices not only in the United next thoughts on Muslim-Christian dia- Though the United States is boycotting States but all over the world. logue because he raises real and hard Durban II, American taxpayers will be American companies are still trying issues for Muslims (and Christians) to surprised to learn that—if the U.N. gets its to digest the ethanol mandates passed answer, rather than taking refuge in

18 HUDSON INSTITUTE / SUMMER 2008 mildly benevolent cliches about “a reli- possible if our most vulnerable popula- gion of peace.” Whatever differences he New York Sun, April 8 tion groups lacked access to primary may express, Benedict will address health care. As in all previous global Americans almost as soul brothers— JAIME DAREMBLUM campaigns on health improvements, something unimaginable until John “BOLIVIA ON THE BRINK” WHO posits success on ever increasing Paul. As late as the 1970s, the Vatican resource flows from donors, irrespec- looked at America as a disorderly and There is an emerging mini-me of Vene- tive of their macroeconomic effects dangerous place—Protestant, capitalist, zuelan President Hugo Chávez—Evo within recipient countries. democratic, socially egalitarian, and reli- Morales, the President of Bolivia. And giously volcanic. Since then, Europe and his country is starting to pay the price Weekly Standard, April 8 America have changed places in papal for it. Bolivia may end up not merely eyes. Europe now looks highly secular fragmented but wracked by blood shed IRWIN STELZER and even hostile to religion. America, on if Morales continues to emu late the “THE CREDIT CRISIS OF 2008” the other hand, is proving to be a lively senseless and destructive policies of his religious society in which God is ack- patron. Morales has turned frequently It is good to have a J.P. Morgan around. nowledged, Catholicism respected, and to the Chávez playbook on “revolution- Students of history will remember that Christianity of all kinds flourishes. ary” brinkmanship for policy guidance. almost exactly 100 years ago, in 1907 to From promoting a bespoke constitu- be exact, one J.P. Morgan rode to the res-

New Republic Online, April 9 tion, which removed inconvenient term cue of a financial system on the verge of limits, to undermining democratic insti- collapse—if one can imagine someone LEE SMITH tutions, to approving populist measures with the girth of the great 70-year-old “THE TROUBLE WITH TALKING” that hurt poor people the most, he has banker riding to anything. It seems that made all the moves favored by his role the Knickerbocker Trust Company had As Syrian President Bashar al-Asad’s model. backed speculators seeking to corner the unctuous welcome of House Speaker market in shares of a copper company. Nancy Pelosi a year ago proves, for the They failed, and so did the bank. Stuck United States simply to talk to its en- British Medical Journal, April 8 with unmarketable securities it had emy was a victory of a type for Syria, accepted as collateral (cf. today’s sub- and one that worked against the U.S.’s JEREMIAH NORRIS prime mortgages and other securitized larger strategic goals. The situation in “BUMPER STICKERS WON’T paper), it had insufficient cash to meet Syria indicates that sometimes isolating GET US TO PRIMARY depositors’ demands. Other banks grew an enemy can be the smartest and most HEALTH CARE” nervous, refused to clear with Knicker- effective diplomatic solution—by not bocker, and tightened credit to the point alienating our allies or undermining a The World Health Organization be - where credit-worthy borrowers such as precarious multilateral strategy of non- lieves that primary health care hasn’t New York City, Boston, and Westing- engagement. When Pelosi visited Dam - been effective in developing countries. house could not sell their IOUs. ascus last spring, her main purpose was This is contrary to a UNICEF report of Enter J.P. Morgan. He cobbled to - to thumb her nose at the White House September 2007, which stated that gether a consortium including John D. by demonstrating that there was no mortality for the under-five population Rockefeller and other elite members of harm merely chatting with the solici- dropped from 20 million per annum in the rich-and-famous club to put up tens tious, clearly delighted Asad. And yet 1960 to 9.7 million in 2006. This dra- of millions, the Treasury added $25 the unintended consequence of her matic decline in vital health statistics million of taxpayer money (a half bil- overture, as Syrian dissidents had occurred at a time when the population lion in today’s dollars), and trust-bust- warned, was that Asad clamped down in the developing world increased from ing President Theodore Roosevelt told on opposition figures, seemingly avail- 2.7 billion to 4.8 billion over the same his attorney general, “I felt it no public ing himself of the apparent relaxation time frame. Health improvements of duty of mine to interpose any objec- of U.S. pressure. this magnitude would have been im - tion” to the complicated rescue scheme.

SUMMER 2008 / HUDSON INSTITUTE 19 Federal Housing Administration (FHA) serve society. The “power ministries” Alliance, April 1 home mortgage insurance to help these and agencies, defense, interior, security homeowners. In August, President Bush services, have recovered their power. WILLIAM SCHAMBRA announced a new “FHA Secure” pro- The generals are getting large amounts “A MORE HUMBLE gram for delinquent borrowers who of new high-tech toys. Hospitals, PHILANTHROPY?” have been caught by the automatic reset. schools, roads, and normal residential housing have not benefited. A large

Public radio, the 911 emergency res - Town Hall, March 28 num ber of the accursed communal ponse system, and so forth are all wor- apartments still house a large part of thy achievements. But they are far from HERBERT LONDON the Muscovite population. fulfilling philanthropy’s much-vaunted, “HARMONIZING ENGLAND century-old promise to do more than AND EUROPE” Enter Stage Right, March 17 merely ameliorate problems, but rather to solve them once and for all by get- “Open Europe,” the organization that ALEX AND DENNIS AVERY ting to their root causes. Such was the follows events on the European conti- “BIOFUELS FORCING WORLD high aspiration of the first large foun- nent, issued a report recently that TO RATION FOOD AID” dations—Carnegie, Rockefeller, Russell attempts to address an obvious ques- Sage—which were born in the utopian tion: If the United Kingdom embraces The World Food Program is preparing to atmosphere of the American progres- European Union legislation, how will ration food aid for the world’s hungriest sive movement at the turn of the twen- the average person be affected? Most poor. Why? Primarily because we’re tieth century, steeped in the faith that people assume that the Brussels bureau- burning food in our automobiles. The the newly developed natural and social cracy is far away, literally and figura- rich-country mandates for biofuels have sciences now gave us the power to tively. What they may not realize is that doubled and tripled world food prices in shape our own future. the Lisbon Treaty exerts enormous less than three years. World corn prices influence over daily lives, from the crit- are above $5 a bushel, up from $1.86

Housing Policy Debate, April 1 ical to the mundane. In fact, the Lisbon three years ago. Prices for wheat, soy- Treaty will reduce Britain’s ability to beans, rice, and even cotton are rising as JOHN WEICHER block EU legislation, including items they’re crowded out of field space by “FOCUS ON THE PROBLEM: that influence quotidian decisions. For biofuel crops. Pakistan says it will reim- SUBPRIME BORROWERS example, as a result of an EU decision pose food rationing for the first time IN TROUBLE” to require more wind turbines to gener- since the 1980s. China’s food inflation ate electricity, electric bills and the tab rate is 18.2 percent, and the Chinese Subprime loans typically default in the for water distribution will increase. have blocked further expansion of their first few years if they are going to fledgling biofuel program. default at all. This is especially likely Hudson Institute, March 28 now because a high proportion are ad - National Review Online, March 14 justable-rate mortgages (ARMs) with LAURENT MURAWIEC low introductory rates that automati- “MOSCOW 2007: OIL NINA SHEA cally reset to much higher rates and AND THUGS” “DEATH COMES FOR monthly payments after two or three THE ARCHBISHOP” years. The foreclosure rate is over three A decade ago Russia defaulted on its times as high for subprime ARMs as external debt. New riches have not only From southern Basra to northern for subprime fixed rate mortgages, and enabled it to repay its debts, but also to Kirkuk, all across Iraq, the Christian has been rising much more rapidly. The accumulate a big treasure chest. The community has suffered bloody re - resets have been occurring since 2006 money is being spent recreating the tra- prisals for failing to conform to Islamic and will continue until late 2009. ditional Russian state, a state designed behavior—in their dress, their social There is increasing interest in using tightly to control society rather than to patterns, and their occupations, as well

20 HUDSON INSTITUTE / SUMMER 2008 as in their worship. Forty churches have choose one of the officially permitted But there are problems, major ones, been bombed, mostly in Baghdad and identities—Muslim, Christian, or Jew. It with the verdicts. The court ruled that Mosul. During the surge last summer, later ruled that twelve Christians who “reconverts” must have the word “ex- Sunni militants from a mosque in had previously converted to Islam may Muslim” on their IDs. This essentially Baghdad’s religiously integrated Dora convert back and have their identity marks them as apostates and exposes neighborhood issued a fatwa specifical- documents changed to reflect this.This is them to persecution and attack. ly commanding the 2,000 Christian no small matter. Without a valid identi- families residing there to convert or be ty card one cannot marry, enroll in Current Trends Vol. 6, Feb. 2008 killed. Criminal gangs from the majori- school, get a job, open a bank account, ty population have found easy prey in or pass through any of the many police ZEYNO BARAN the religious minorities, who, dealing checkpoints. Hence, the judges should “THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD’S with indifferent security forces and be commended, as should the plaintiffs, U.S. NETWORK” lacking militias of their own, are utterly their lawyers, and the human rights act - defenseless. ivists who put themselves in danger by American policymakers are debating bringing these cases. Some received whether to engage non-violent elements

Wall Street Journal, March 6 death threats. of the Muslim Brotherhood network in

ROD HUNTER “THE DEMOCRATS AND TRADE” Trade agreements are important for HUDSON noneconomic reasons because they have foreign policy implications. Take INSTITUTE South Korea, a longstanding ally in Asia. Both Senator Clinton and Senator LEADERSHIP AND COMMUNICATIONS Obama oppose ratifying a trade deal with Seoul. But failing to do so would Kenneth R. Weinstein Herbert I. London Chief Executive Officer send a troubling signal—that the U.S. is President uninterested in supporting an ally at a S. Enders Wimbush Senior Vice President, International Programs and Policy time when our friends in the region are worried about an ascendant China. Or Deborah L. Hoopes Grace Paine Terzian Vice President and Vice President, take Colombia, a vital U.S. ally in Latin Chief Financial Officer Communications America. Clinton opposes, and Obama Amanda Sokolski Richard Weitz has declined to embrace, a trade deal Director of Development Director, Program Management with Bogotá. Colombia is a stalwart ally Rachel DiCarlo Currie Mitzi H. Pepall in the drug war and essential to neutral- Managing Editor Art Direction and Design izing Hugo Chávez’s Venezuela. Katherine Smyth Corporate Secretary and Program Manager

Also providing assistance on this newsletter: Philip Ross, Weekly Standard, March 6 Ioannis Saratsis, and Emily Simmons.

Hudson Institute is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to Egypt’s Court of Administrative Justice inno vative research and analysis that promotes global security, prosperity, and freedom. ruled that Egypt’s Baha’is may leave the religion box on their identity cards www.hudson.org blank and will no longer be forced to

SUMMER 2008 / HUDSON INSTITUTE 21 the hope that such engagement will em- power these “moderates” against vio- HUDSON INSTITUTE BOARD OF TRUSTEES lent Wahhabi and Salafi groups such as al-Qaeda. Unfortunately, this strategy Allan R. Tessler, Chairman of the Board Chairman, International Financial Group, Inc., Wilson, WY is based on a false assumption: that “mod erate” Islamist groups will con- Walter P. Stern, Chairman Emeritus Vice Chairman, Capital International, Inc., New York, NY front and weaken their violent co-reli- gionists, robbing them of their support Joseph M. Giglio, Vice Chairman Executive Professor for Strategic Management, Northeastern University base. College of Business Administration, Boston, MA This lesser-of-two-evils strategy is reminiscent of the rationale behind the Linden S. Blue, Ebrahim Moussazadeh, Vice Chairman, General Atomics, Matrix Creations, Cold War-era decision to support the San Diego, CA New York, NY Afghan mujahideen against the Soviet Rudy Boschwitz, Neil H. Offen, army. In the short term, the U.S. alliance Chairman, Home Valu Interiors, President, Direct Selling Association, with the mujahideen did indeed aid Minneapolis, MN Washington, DC America in its struggle against the Soviet Charles H. Brunie, Chairman, Yoji Ohashi, Union. In the long term, however, U.S. Brunie Associates, Chairman, All Nippon Airways Co., Ltd., New York, NY Tokyo, Japan support led to the empowerment of a dangerous and potent adversary. In Pierre Dassas, Richard N. Perle, Dassas Group, Paris, France Resident Fellow, American choosing its allies, the US cannot afford Enterprise Institute, Chevy Chase, MD to elevate short-term tactical considera- Gerald Dorros, MD, William Dorros-Isadore Feuer E. Miles Prentice, III, tions above longer-term strategic ones. Interventional Cardiovascular Disease Partner, Eaton & Van Winkle LLP, Foundation, Buckeye, AZ New York, NY

Roy Innis, Steven Price, Current Trends Vol, 6, Feb. 2008 National Chairman, The Congress of Senior Managing Director, Racial Equality, New York, NY Centerbridge, New York, NY

HILLEL FRADKIN Jan Henrik Jebsen, Jack Rosen, Gamma Applied Visions Group Rosen Partners, New York, NY “THE HISTORY AND UNWRITTEN Holding SA, Nyon, Switzerland FUTURE OF SALAFISM” Nina Rosenwald, Lawrence Kadish, American Securities, New York, NY Old Westbury, NY The Muslim Brotherhood was founded in William D. Siegel, Deborah Kahn Cunningham, New York, NY 1928 and, as such, is the oldest formal and New York, NY organized expression of Islamism or Sala - Max Singer, Marie-Josée Kravis, Senior Fellow, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute, fism. It is certainly the oldest mass, and Hudson Institute, New York, NY Washington, DC ultimately worldwide, Islamist move ment. George Lichtblau, Kenneth R. Weinstein, In accordance with that con ception, it is RocketLine LLC, Ridgefield, CT Chief Executive Officer, Hudson Institute, today an impressively widespread move- Washington, DC Herbert I. London, ment, having at this point many, many President, Hudson Institute, Clay Thomas Whitehead, branches in both Muslim countries and New York, NY Distinguished Visiting Professor, George Mason University, Muslim minority communities in other Robert Mankin, McLean, VA countries. Its accum ulated experience Independent Management Consultant, Financial Services, New York, NY Curtin Winsor, Jr., forms by far the greatest part of the histo- Chairman, American Chemical ry of Islamism, and it remains the Islamist Robert H. McKinney, Services Company, McLean, VA First Indiana Corporation, organization with the greatest general Indianapolis, IN John C. Wohlstetter, impact on Muslims overall. This alone Washington, DC would suffice to render it an important subject of study.

22 HUDSON INSTITUTE / SUMMER 2008 INDEX CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1 justify the risk of starting it. But he also would probably not have made Earth unin- giving and investment now represent more believed that to prevent a war it is necessary habitable, and he thought people should than 75 percent of developed countries’ total to look at how the enemy sees it; in particu- know that—as well as all the un certainties. economic engagement with the developing lar, to ask whether the enemy can imagine The prospect that nuclear war might kill world: “Official aid has become a minority winning a nuclear war—by his values—and hundreds of millions of people seemed to shareholder in development assistance.” thus be tempted to consider risking it. him ample deterrent. But people who heard As in previous editions, the 2008 Index Even a nuclear war that ends with both him say that the likely re sult of a particular chronicles numerous instances of private sides worse off than when they started— war was, say, 100 mil lion dead, and “recov- giving—a former Peace Corps volunteer because of the number of people killed—can ery” would happen in a generation or two, who continues to raise money and devote be a war in which in another sense there is a often added an “only” and thought that he time to school children in Colombia; col- clear winner and a clear loser, because one was justifying or recommending such a war. lege students who use their spring break to side decides the terms on which the war ends. Kahn’s thinking never included an “only.” volunteer at a community hospital in Ec ua - Originally U.S. plans for its nuclear Now U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals dor or work with coffee farmers in the weapons were little more than to fire all the are less than a tenth as big as they were, but Dominican Republic; or a U.K. charity that weapons at the Soviet Union and go home- we have to face the new danger of a small distributes auto-mechanic kits in Uganda. —what Kahn derided as a “wargasm.” number of nuclear weapons being used The 2007 Index received media cover- Kahn said that this was a poor way to min- against the U.S.—or someone else—per- age from the Wall Street Journal, C-SPAN, imize damages if war occurred. He argued haps by a group rather than a country, so the Financial Times, the National Post that more thoughtful war plans could im- people are again beginning to consider ques- (Canada), the New York Sun, the Chronicle prove the chance that fewer people would tions of nuclear strategy. Much of Kahn’s of Philanthropy, and many other news out- be killed, and could at the same time in - thinking applies to these new circumstances, lets. Media coverage for the just-launched crease the chance that the expected out- but some thinkers are ignoring his ideas 2008 Index already includes the Christian come of the war would deter the Russians because of the same prejudices and misun- Science Monitor, the Economist, the Chris- from starting one. In other words Kahn derstandings as before. Fortunately some tian Post, and numerous articles underway. studied “war fighting” be cause he wanted people who remember Kahn’s real mes- Adelman presented the 2008 Index at the to under stand deterrence and because any sages are still around, and, more important, international section of the Council on attempt to minimize damages if war starts his writings are still available to forcefully Foundations annual meeting in Maryland. is a form of war fighting. But some people and interestingly present his ideas to those She was also invited to discuss the Index at interpreted this prudent concern more ef - who are willing to read. And at least one a meeting of the Society for International fect ively to prevent war and to minimize school today is ensuring that students have Development in Ottawa, where she met damages if it occurred as favoring nuclear a chance to benefit from Kahn’s thinking. with Canadian nonprofit leaders and held a war, or denying its deadly consequences. We can hope that these students will spread video broadcast session with other pro- Many people felt that the best way to the word to a new generation. vinces. In June, Adelman launches the Index prevent war was to say (and believe) that a Hudson founder Herman in London at the International Policy Net- nuclear war would make the planet unin- Kahn (left), Max Singer work and at Meridian International Center habitable. Kahn felt that the most accurate in Washington, D.C. For more in for mation possible estimate of the harm various kinds about the Index, or to purchase a copy, of nuclear war could cause would serve as please visit Hudson Institute’s bookstore at a more reliable deterrent than apocalyptic www.hudson.org/bookstore. visions. But, more fundamentally, he believed that since it is impossible to know

KAHN CONTINUED FROM PAGE 17 what vision of nuclear war has the best Force objections to thinking defensively. chance of preventing war, professional ana- Kahn believed that it was virtually impossi- lysts have a responsibility to be as realistic ble to imagine a situation in which the ex- as possible. pected outcome of a nuclear war would be With the weapons that existed during favorable enough to the United States to Kahn’s life (and still today) a nuclear war

SUMMER 2008 / HUDSON INSTITUTE 23 HUDSON INSTITUTE

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“A first-rate journal—really informative and amazingly accessible. I’ve learned something from every issue I’ve read.” —WILLIAM KRISTOL, editor of the Weekly Standard

“A must read for understanding contemporary events.” —FRANCIS FUKUYAMA, author of The End of History

“At a time when the press, politicians, and academics con- fuse Islamic and Islamist, Muslim and Arab, Current Trends offers an in-depth look into the evolving realities of an ideological movement that is shaping our times.” —HASSAN MNEIMEH, executive director of the Iraq Mem ory Foundation

Published twice yearly by Hudson Institute and read worldwide, Current Trends in Islamist Ideology focuses on the transnational phenomenon of contemporary Islamism and the worldwide Islamist universe—from al Qaeda to the Muslim Brotherhood. Current Trends is accessible to non-specialists and scholars alike.

To order a copy, please visit www.ctbookstore.org or call 1-888-554-1325. www.CurrentTrends.org