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Le Mode Diplomatique 01 05 2020 H DANS LES MARGES CRÉATIVES DE LA BD – pages 14 et 15 POPULISME, RÉPONSE ÀPIERRE ROSANVALLON PARCHANTAL MOUFFE Page 3. 5,40 €-Mensuel -28pages N° 794 -67e année. Mai 2020 DOSSIER : C OVID -19, APRÈS LA CRISE … LES CRISES Un avant-goût Qui du choc va payer? NDRES LO climatique Y, Les crisesseressemblent. Lorsquelatempête fait ALLER rage, le capitaineen appelle àlasolidarité.Lamenace TG passée, l’union s’évanouit :certains écopent en fond L’abîme dans lequel un coronavirus aprécipité de nombreux de cale, d’autres se trémoussent sur les ponts pays illustrelecoût humain de la négligence face àun danger supérieurs. En sera-t-il de nouveau ainsi ou la AMES FINE AR pourtant parfaitement identifié. Évoquer la fataliténepeut dissi- -E pandémie provoquera-t-elle un changement de cap? muler l’évidence:mieux vaut prévenir que guérir.Les atermoie- ments actuels dans la lutte contre le réchauffement climatique P AR L AURENT C ORDONNIER * pourraient conduireàdes phénomènes bien plus dramatiques. OHN CROSSLEY ©J Astrid54–«TheLookout »(Le Guetteur), 2015 LACRISE quisurvient n’est pas de nature sanitaire, mais économique. PAR PHILIPPE DESCAMPS ET THIERRY LEBEL * Le battement d’ailes de papillon qui s’est sans doute produit au marché de Wuhan acheminé suivant les lignes de fragilité du capitalisme mon- dialisé et libéralisé, lequel aredéployé depuis quarante ans ses «chaînes ENMARS 2020, la crise sanitaire arelégué l’actualitéclimatique Signe avant-coureur de possibles effondrements plus graves, le de valeur»augré des eldorados de pacotille qui lui promettaient de pares- loin des titres. Pourtant,cemois fera date comme le dixième de suite naufrage sanitaire actuel peut se voir àlafois comme un modèle réduit seux profits:lacaptationfinancière, la concurrence «libre et non faussée» avec une température moyenne au-dessus des normales. «Une telle et une expérience en accéléré du chaos climatique qui vient. Avant de par les coûts salariaux, le juste àtemps, le lean management, le pillage série de dix mois “chauds” consécutifsàl’échelledupays est inédite», devenir une affaire de santé, la multiplication des virus pathogènes des ressources naturelles, l’obsolescence programmée, la réduction du note Météo France, dont les données permettent de remonter jusqu’à renvoie aussi àune question écologique :l’emprise des activités nombre de masques et de lits dans les hôpitaux, l’austérité. 1900. L’hiver écoulé abattu tous les records avec des températures humaines sur la nature(2). L’exploitation sans fin de nouvelles terres supérieures aux normales de 2°Cendécembre et janvier,puis de 3°C bouleverse l’équilibre du monde sauvage, tandis que la concentration Nous n’en sommes qu’aux prémices mais, déjà, les économistes s’in- en février.Pour se rassurer,onapréféré retenir l’amélioration spec- animale dans les élevages favorise les épidémies. terrogent :qui va payer et comment?Une profession qui ne gagnerait pas taculairedelatransparence atmosphérique. Lueurs d’espoir :l’Hima- sonpain sans cettelevure qui s’anime àlasimple invocation des «coûts» laya redevenait visible àl’horizon des villes du nord de l’Inde, ou le Le virus atouché en premier lieu les pays les plus développés,car ne saurait manquer une si belle occasion de poser la question. On ne pour- mont Blanc depuis les plaines lyonnaises. sa vitesse de propagation est étroitement liée aux réseaux d’échanges rait, pour cette fois, lui donner tort. C’est en effet l’une des interrogations maritimes et surtout aériens, dont le développement constitue également majeures qui accompagnerontlaperspective d’un «retour àlanormale»: Nul doute que la mise àl’arrêt d’une bonne partiedelaproduction l’un des vecteurs croissants des émissions de GES. La logique du court qu’est-ce qui est «normal», qu’est-ce qu’un «retour», et existe-t-il des entraînera cette année une baisse inégalée des émissions de gaz à terme, de l’effacement des précautions montre, dans ces deux domaines, «perspectives»qui ne boucheraient pas ànouveau l’horizon? effet de serre (GES) (1). Mais peut-on vraiment croire qu’une décrue la capacité autodestructrice pour les humains de la primauté accordée historique va s’amorcer ?Enrévélant la vulnérabilitédenotre civi- au gain individuel, àl’avantage comparatif, àlacompétition. Si Économique, cette crise ne ressemble pourtant àrien de vraiment lisation, les fragilités associées au modèle de croissance économique certaines populations ou régions s’avèrent plus vulnérables que d’au- connu dans l’histoire du capitalisme. Ni classique ni keynésienne, elle mondialisée, du fait de l’hyperspécialisation et des flux incessants tres,lapandémieaffecte progressivement la planète entière, de même ne résulte ni d’un choc d’offre, dû àdes entraves institutionnelles, tech- de personnes, de marchandises et de capitaux, le Covid-19 provo- queleréchauffement ne se cantonne pas aux pays les plus émetteurs nologiques ou provenant de la disponibilité insuffisante des facteurs de quera-t-il un électrochoc salutaire ?Lacrise économique et financière de dioxyde de carbone (CO2). production (le capital, le travail et les ressources naturelles), ni d’un de 2008 généra, elle aussi, une baisse sensible des émissions, mais effondrement soudain de la demande, bien que le régime de formation elles sont rapidement reparties àlahausse ensuite, battant de (Lirelasuite pages 20 et 21.) de la demandesoitstructurellementdéfaillantdepuisquaranteans.Elle nouveaux records… découle essentiellement de décisions souveraines (et, pour une plus (1) Cf. Christian de Perthuis, «Comment le Covid-19 modifie les perspectives de l’action faible part, de mesures de protection prises individuellement) qui ont *Hydroclimatologue, directeur de recherche àl’Institut de recherche pour le développement climatique», Information et débats, n° 63, Paris, avril 2020. conduit àmettre brutalement àl’arrêt des pans entiers de l’appareil pro- (IRD) et àl’Institut des géosciences de l’environnement (IGE, Grenoble), contributeur (2) Lire Sonia Shah, «Contre les pandémies, l’écologie», Le Monde diplomatique, ductif. Le Bureau internationaldutravail (BIT) estime que «1,25 milliard aux travaux du Groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat (GIEC). mars 2020. de travailleurs représentant près de 38 %delamain-d’œuvremondiale sont employés dans des secteurs qui doivent faireface actuellement à une baisse sévèredelaproduction et àun risque élevédedéplacement des effectifs. Parmi les secteurs-clés figurent le commerce de détail, Tous des enfants l’hôtellerie et la restauration ainsi que le secteur manufacturier (1)». (Lirelasuite pages 22 et 23.) NE fois encoreleur monde est par terre. Et ce n’est pas nous PAR S ERGE H ALIMI (1) «Observatoire de l’OIT :leCovid-19 et le monde du travail, 2e édition», Organisation Uqui l’avons cassé. On évoque en ce moment le programme internationale du travail, Genève, 7avril 2020 économique et social du Conseil national de la Résistance ;la Le vertige s’accroît du fait que cette puissance ne sait pas où elle conquête des droits syndicaux et les grands travaux du New Deal. *Économiste, professeur àl’université de Lille. va. Ses décisions sont comminatoires, même quand elles se contre- Mais bien des maquisards français avaient alors conservé leurs disent. Les masques ?Ils ne servaient àrien, c’était certain, tant armes, et dans la rue un peuple attendait l’échappée belle «dela qu’on n’en avait pas. Ils sont redevenus utiles –c’est-à-diresuscep- Résistance àlarévolution ». Telle était d’ailleurs la devise d’un tibles de sauver la vie –depuis qu’on en dispose. La «distanciation quotidien de l’époque qui se nommait Combat.Quant àFranklin Soutenez l’indépendance sociale »s’impose, c’est entendu, mais la distance de sécurité Roosevelt, il sut fairecomprendreàune partie des patrons s’accroît de 50 %quand un Français se rend en Belgique ou franchit américains que les révoltes ouvrières et le chaos social risquaient le Rhin, et elle double s’il parvient àtraverser l’Atlantique. Enfin, du Monde diplomatique de balayer leur capitalisme adoré. Il leur fallut donc composer. on nous dira bientôt quel âge et quelle corpulence interdisent Aujourd’hui, rien de tel. Confinées, infantilisées, sidérées autant que toujours de sortir de chez soi. Mieux valait autrefois êtrevieux et terrorisées par les chaînes d’information en continu, les populations gros qu’aujourd’hui «senior »et«en surpoids »:les premiers étaient sont devenues spectatrices, passives, anéanties. Par la force des au moins libres de leurs pas. On apprendra aussi pourquoi les choses, les rues se sont vidées. Il n’y aplus ni «gilets jaunes»en écoliers ont cessé d’êtrecontagieux pour des enseignants proches France, ni Hirak en Algérie, ni manifestations àBeyrouth ou àBarcelone. de la retraite àqui on continue pourtant de recommander de Telunenfant apeurépar le grondement de l’orage, chacun attend de conserver leurs distances avec leurs petits-enfants. connaîtrelesortque le pouvoirlui réserve. Car les hôpitaux, c’est lui; Un jour,nousredeviendrons adultes. Capables de comprendre les masques, les tests, c’est lui;les virements qui permettront de tenir et d’imposer d’autres choix, ycompris économiques et sociaux. quelques jours de plus, c’est lui (1);ledroit ou non de sortir –qui? Pour le moment, nous prenons des coups sans pouvoir les rendre; comment?quand?avec qui?–,c’est encoreettoujours lui. Le pouvoir nous parlons dans le vide et nous le savons. D’où ce climat poisseux, atous les pouvoirs. Médecin et employeur,ilest aussi notrejuge cette colèreinemployée. Un baril de poudreaumilieu d’une pièce, d’application des peines qui décide de la durée comme de la dureté et qui attend son allumette. Après l’enfance, l’âge ingrat… de notreconfinement. Pourquoi s’étonner alors que trente-sept millions de Français, un record, «deux fois le scored’une Coupe de monde de football», aient écouté le président de la République le 13 avril (1) Aux États-Unis, le nom de Donald Trump va figurer sur les chèques d’environ dernier quand celui-ci s’exprima sur onze chaînes àlafois?Que 1200 dollars par personne que le Trésor américain enverra àdes dizaines de millions pouvaient-ils faired’autrecesoir-là? de citoyens.
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