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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR a DAILY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE Thursday, March 8, 2018

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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR a DAILY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE Thursday, March 8, 2018 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR A DAILY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org Thursday, March 8, 2018 BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A TODAY’S NEWS Diego Arria Director, Columbus Group ECONOMIC Devry Boughner Vorwerk Corporate VP, Global Corporate Affairs Who Has the Edge Eleven Countries Cargill Joyce Chang to Sign Pacific Global Head of Research, in Colombia’s Trade Deal JPMorgan Chase & Co. Canada, Chile, Mexico and Peru Dirk Donath Senior Partner, are among the countries set to Catterton Aimara Presidential Race? sign the slimmed down version Marlene Fernández of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Corporate Vice President for today in Santiago. Government Relations, Page 2 Arcos Dorados Peter Hakim President Emeritus, BUSINESS Inter-American Dialogue Donna Hrinak Former Petrobras President, Boeing Latin America CEO Bendine Gets Jon Huenemann Vice President, U.S. & Int’l Affairs, 11 Years for Graft Philip Morris International Aldemir Bendine, a former chief James R. Jones Chairman, executive officer of Brazilian Monarch Global Strategies Recent polls show Iván Duque (pictured), the candidate of former Colombian President Álvaro state-run oil company Petrobras, Craig A. Kelly Uribe’s Democratic Center party, in a dead heat with former Bogotá Mayor Gustavo Petro. // was sentenced to 11 years in Director, Americas International File Photo: Duque Campaign. prison for taking nearly a million Gov’t Relations, Exxon Mobil dollars in bribes from construc- Gustavo Petro, a former leftist guerrilla who later served as John Maisto tion firm Odebrecht. Director, U.S. Education mayor of Bogotá, and Iván Duque, the candidate of former Page 3 Finance Group President Álvaro Uribe’s Democratic Center party, are vir- Nicolás Mariscal Chairman, Q tually tied less than three months ahead of Colombia’s May ECONOMIC Grupo Marhnos 27 presidential election. According to a poll published Sunday by daily Thomas F. McLarty III Trump to Offer Chairman, newspaper El Tiempo and W Radio, Duque had 23.6 percent support, as Canada, Mexico McLarty Associates compared to Petro’s 23.1 percent, while former Medellín Mayor Sergio Carl Meacham Tariff Exemptions Associate VP for Latin America Fajardo had 8.1 percent support, and ruling party candidate former Vice U.S. President Donald Trump Int’l Advocacy Division, PhRMA President Germán Vargas had 6.3 percent. What issues are shaping is planning to offer temporary Carlos Paz-Soldan Partner, Colombia’s presidential race ahead of the May 27 vote, and how have the exemptions to the steel and alu- DTB Associates, LLP top candidates gotten where they are today? What factors will decide minum tariffs he announced last Beatrice Rangel the election’s outcome? Would any of the front-runners pursue radically week. The exemptions could be Director, extended based on the progress in AMLA Consulting LLC different policies from the current administration of centrist President renegotiating NAFTA. Gustavo Roosen Juan Manuel Santos? Page 2 Chairman of the Board, Envases Venezolanos Andrés Rozental Adam Isacson, senior associate for the regional security President, Rozental & Asociados and Senior policy program at the Washington Office on Latin America: Policy Advisor, Chatham House “The polls have varied widely, but four candidates appear to Roberto Sifon-Arevalo Managing Director, Americas stand out in the most recent ones. Let’s list them, from left Sovereign & Public Finance Ratings, A Standard & Poor’s to right. 1) Gustavo Petro made his name as a senator who investigated corruption and had a stormy 2012-15 term as mayor of Bogotá. 2) Sergio Fajardo, a center-left, pro-free market mathematician, enjoyed high popularity as mayor of Medellín from 2004-2007. Petro and Fajardo are buoyed by perceptions that they are not corrupt. 3) Germán Vargas Lleras, the grandson of a president, has built support among traditional political patronage networks around the country. Though he served as Santos’ Trump // File Photo: White House. Continued on page 3 COPYRIGHT © 2018, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 1 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Thursday, March 8, 2018 ECONOMIC NEWS well as potential exclusions for other countries. NEWS BRIEFS Among the nations seeking exemptions is Trump Planning to Australia, where Foreign Minister Julie Bishop Argentina’s Last cited the country’s status as a “close ally and Military Dictator Offer Canada, Mexico partner” of the United States in an interview today with Sky News. Navarro said Wednesday Bignone Dies at 90 Tariff Exemptions night in an interview with the Fox Business Reynaldo Bignone, the last of four military Network that Trump would sign the tariff presidents from Argentina’s brutal 1976-83 U.S. President Donald Trump is planning to proclamations today at 3:30 p.m. surrounded dictatorship, died Wednesday at age 90, the offer Canada and Mexico temporary exemp- by steel and aluminum industry workers in the Associated Press reported, citing the state-run tions from the steel and aluminum tariffs that Oval Office. However, a person familiar with the Telam news agency. Bignone had been serving he announced last week, The Washington planning of the tariffs told Bloomberg News a life sentence under house arrest for human Post reported Wednesday. The plan is still that the signing would not happen as sched- rights crimes that included the torture, disap- being finalized, but one possibility would be uled because attorneys needed more time to fi- pearances and killing of tens of thousands of nalize the details. A White House schedule that people, as well as the kidnapping of babies was released Wednesday did not include any from their mothers. He served as president of There’s going to be signing ceremony today related to the tariffs. Argentina from July 1, 1982, to Dec. 10, 1983, a provision which when he handed over power to Raúl Alfonsín, will exclude Canada who was democratically elected. and Mexico until the Eleven Countries to NAFTA thing is Sign Pacific Trade concluded one Deal, Minus U.S. Amazon in Talks for way or another.” Direct Sales in Brazil — Peter Navarro Eleven Asia-Pacific nations today are sched- Online retailer Amazon last week held meetings uled to sign a slimmed-down version of the in Brazil with manufacturers to discuss plans that Canada and Mexico would receive 30-day massive Trans-Pacific Partnership trade to stock and sell products in the country, exemptions from the tariffs, a period that deal, now dubbed the Comprehensive and Reuters reported. Amazon currently operates in could be extended, based on the progress in Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Brazil as a marketplace for third-party sellers renegotiating the North American Free Trade Partnership, or CPTPP, Agence France-Press but does not compete head-to-head with more Agreement, or NAFTA. If the talks to renego- reported. The United States has backed out established rivals such as MercadoLibre. Com- tiate the trade accord fail, then Canada and of the TPP, leaving Australia, Brunei, Canada, pany executives did not comment directly to Mexico would be subject to the same tariffs Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, the wire service on the topic but said they have as other countries—a 25 percent tariff on steel Peru, Singapore and Vietnam, representing held “hundreds of meetings” with potential and 10 percent on aluminum, Bloomberg News together 13.5 percent of global gross domes- vendors about its business in Brazil over the reported. “Here’s the situation, and the pres- tic product, to proceed with the agreement, past five years. ident has made this public. There’s going to which is to be signed in Chile. Together, the be a provision which will exclude Canada and 11 nations represent 13.5 percent of global Mexico until the NAFTA thing is concluded one gross domestic product, down from 40 percent way or another,” White House Trade Advisor had the United States stayed in. Critics of U.S. Drummond Considers Peter Navarro said Wednesday. This week, U.S., President Donald Trump’s decision to pull out Sale of Colombia Assets Canadian and Mexican negotiators meeting in say Washington’s absence leaves an open path Alabama-based Drummond Co., a producer of Mexico concluded the seventh round of NAFTA for China to forge stronger ties with Pacific Rim coal, oil and gas and foundry coke, is explor- renegotiation talks, with no announcements of trading partners at the expense of the United ing the possible sale of at least a portion of breakthroughs on major points of contention. States. Chile said membership of the new pact its Colombia operations, AL.com reported Other U.S. allies could seek similar exemptions, will improve access to markets currently re- Wednesday. In a statement, the company said Navarro added. Earlier on Wednesday, White sponsible for 17 percent of its total exports. In it has engaged Goldman Sachs to “explore House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sand- related news, Canada on Friday is expected to investment options” for its equity in Drum- ers said the plan for the tariffs would include announce the start of formal free trade negoti- mond International, which operates large coal “potential carve-outs for Canada and Mexico, ations with Mercosur, the Southern Cone trade mines, railroad facilities and an ocean port in based on national security” considerations, as bloc consisting of Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay Colombia. COPYRIGHT © 2018, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 2 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Thursday, March 8, 2018 and Paraguay, the Canadian Press reported. FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 1 Trade ministry spokesman Joseph Pickerill said Mercosur countries “are keen [on] Cana- vice president, he has since broken with those who snitch and/or collaborate with da’s approach to trade … and are prepared to do the president on the FARC peace issue. 4) justice receive. 2) Today’s widespread crimi- a more comprehensive deal than was ever on Senator Iván Duque is the chosen candidate nality and personal insecurity is what voters the table in the past.” [Editor’s note: See related of the party headed by ultraconservative, feared would come as a result of the peace Q&A in the Feb.
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