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Validating the Runoff from the PRECIS Model Using a Large-Scale

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Validating the Runoff from the PRECIS Model Using a Large-Scale ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, VOL. 24, NO. 5, 2007, 855{862 Validating the Runo® from the PRECIS Model Using a Large-Scale Routing Model CAO Lijuan¤1;5 (曹丽娟), DONG Wenjie2 (董文杰), XU Yinlong3 (许吟隆), ZHANG Yong1;2;3 (张 勇), and Michael SPARROW4 1Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 2National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 3Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081 4International CLIVAR Project O±ce, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK 5Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049 (Received 28 August 2006; revised 12 February 2007) ABSTRACT The streamflow over the Yellow River basin is simulated using the PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) regional climate model driven by 15-year (1979{1993) ECMWF reanalysis data as the initial and lateral boundary conditions and an o®-line large-scale routing model (LRM). The LRM uses physical catchment and river channel information and allows streamflow to be predicted for large continental rivers with a 1± £ 1± spatial resolution. The results show that the PRECIS model can reproduce the general southeast to northwest gradient distribution of the precipitation over the Yellow River basin. The PRECIS- LRM model combination has the capability to simulate the seasonal and annual streamflow over the Yellow River basin. The simulated streamflow is generally coincident with the naturalized streamflow both in timing and in magnitude. Key words: regional climate model, large-scale routing model, model validation, runo®, the Yellow River DOI: 10.1007/s00376-007-0855-6 1. Introduction but not streamflow. For most climate models, runo® is simply an excess of precipitation over evapotranspira- It has been widely accepted that modeling land tion and local moisture storage change that combines surface processes plays an important role not only various terms (including, for example, fluxes to or from in large-scale atmospheric and global climate models groundwater, direct surface runo®, and baseflow) that (GCMs), but also in regional climate models (RCMs). may eventually be evidenced as streamflow. Therefore, Uncertainty in land-surface processes coupled with un- a routing model is needed to translate model-simulated certainty in parameter data limits the con¯dence we runo® into streamflow (Lohmann et al., 1998; Xu et have in the simulated regional impact studies. River al., 2005). runo® is one of the most important land-surface pro- Realistic routing of river flows is important for sev- cesses used in evaluating the surface water budgets. eral reasons. For instance, river routing in climate Streamflow is a temporally-lagged, spatial integral of models provides a basis for comparing and validating river runo® over a river basin. However, most land- GCM or RCM estimates of runo® with the observed surface schemes in GCMs or RCMs simulate runo® river hydrograph data. Provided GCM or RCM esti- ¤Corresponding author: CAO Lijuan, [email protected] 856 VALIDATING RUNOFF FROM THE PRECIS MODEL VOL. 24 mates of precipitation and other atmospheric variables horizontal resolution (0.44± £ 0:44±), which allows it are realistic, estimates of river runo® can be used to as- to be run at reasonable computational cost over a do- sess the adequacy of its land surface parameterization main covering most of East Asia. The model has 19 scheme (Liston et al., 1994; Nijssen et al., 1997; Wood vertical levels in the atmosphere and runs at a time et al., 1998). Previous literature has described the use step of ¯ve minutes. Xu et al. (2006) and Zhang et al. of simple river routing schemes to predict the long- (2006, 2007) employed PRECIS to simulate the base- term mean runo® from major rivers around the world line (1961{1990) mean climate and extreme climate (Russel and Miller, 1990; DÄumeniland Todini, 1992; events for evaluation of the model's capacity to sim- Kuhl and Miller, 1992; Liston et al., 1994; Miller et ulate present climate and analyze the future change al., 1994; Sausen et al., 1994), in which the simulated responses of mean climate and extreme climate events runo® of GCMs is used as the input to the routing in the time-slice of 2071{2100 under the IPCC SRES models. Because the resolution of GCMs is too coarse B2 scenario over China relative to a baseline average. to accurately reproduce many regional characteristics, The land-surface scheme employed in the PRECIS this typically results in large errors in the predictions. model is the MOSES (Meteorological O±ce Surface Using a regional climate model and an o®-line large- Exchange Scheme), which is one of the land-surface scale routing model to simulate the streamflow is a schemes (LSSs) that participated in the Project for way of providing improved predictions. Inter-comparison of Land-surface Parameterizations The Yellow River has drawn the attention of a (PILPS) Phase 2(e) experiment, and showed good skill growing number of scientists since it is well known in land-surface simulation (Bowling et al., 2003; Ni- for its large drainage area, with high sand content, jssen et al., 2003). The MOSES uses four soil layers frequent floods, unique channel characteristics in the in the vertical with depths chosen to capture impor- lower reaches, and limited water resources (Fu et al., tant soil temperature cycles. The scheme describes 2004). A large number of studies have been carried out two components of runo®: surface runo® and subsur- on the Yellow River by analyzing observational data or face runo®. As precipitation hits the canopy the re- downscaling of modeled climate variables in the basin mainder of the canopy interception falls to the surface. as well as using macro-scale hydrological models such This canopy throughfall in¯ltrates the soil at a rate of as the Variable In¯ltration Capacity (VIC) model to saturated hydraulic conductivity multiplied by an en- investigate hydroclimatic trends due to climate change hancement factor. Surface runo® is generated when and other factors over a long time period (e.g., Zhang the local throughfall rate exceeds the in¯ltration rate. et al., 2003; Fu et al., 2004; Hao et al., 2004; Lan et Subsurface runo® is mainly a®ected by soil moisture. al., 2004; Liu and Zheng, 2004; Xia et al., 2004; Xie et Drainage through the soil is calculated using a dis- al., 2004; Xu, 2005). cretized version of the Richards' equations with four This study uses PRECIS (Providing REgional Cli- soil layers (thicknesses: 0.1, 0.25, 0.65, 2.0 m). Hy- mates for Impacts Studies) and a LRM (a large-scale draulic conductivity and suction are calculated using routing model) to investigate the streamflow changes Clapp-Hornberger characteristic curves (Gedney and during 1979{1993 over the Yellow River basin. The Cox, 2003). A detailed description of the MOSES can aim of this research is to validate the ability of the be found in Cox et al. (1999) and Essery et al. (2001, PRECIS model to reproduce the hydrological pro- 2003). cesses so that the simulated results can better be used The LRM model, which is based on assumptions of in hydrological impact studies. The paper is organized linearity and time invariance, comes from the Depart- as follows: section 2 briefly describes the models used ment of Hydrological Sciences, University of Arizona. in this study, section 3 describes the basin and experi- The runo® reaching the outlet of a grid box and the ment design, section 4 discusses the results, and ¯nally transport of water through the river network are cal- the conclusions are given in section 5. culated in the routing model. It is assumed that water can leave a grid cell only in the direction of one of its 2. Model description eight neighboring grid cells. The runo® is then com- bined with the river discharge and routed downstream. The PRECIS model, a regional climate model sys- A simple baseflow separation technique is used to ac- tem developed by the Hadley Centre, can be run over count for the di®erent timing response of surface and any area of the globe to provide regional climate in- subsurface runo®, which is well established in the liter- formation for impacts studies (Jones et al., 2004). It ature (Linsley et al., 1975). The surface runo® calcu- was introduced into China in 2003 to develop the high- lation is represented based on the concept of the unit resolution SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenar- hydrograph (UH) in each grid cell. Once the water is ios) climate change scenarios. It uses relatively high transported out of the grid cell, it is further routed NO. 5 CAO ET AL. 857 Fig. 1. The 1± £ 1± schematic river network for the Yellow River basin. Fig. 2. The (a) observed and (b) simulated annual mean precipitation (mm d¡1) for the Yellow River basin. through the stream network (Fig. 1). River routing is impulse-response (or Green's) function (Todini, 1991; calculated with the linearized Saint-Venant equation Lohmann et al., 1996). (Lettnmaier and Wood, 1993): 3. Domain and methods @Q @2Q @Q = D 2 ¡ C : @t @x @x The Yellow River, which is the second longest river Typical wave velocities, C, range between 0.8 m s¡1 in China, lies in the region 32±{42±N and 96±{119±E. and 1.5 m s¡1 and di®usivities, D, range between 600 The climate ranges from humid and semi-humid condi- m2 s¡1 and 2000 m2 s¡1. The parameters C and tions in the eastern part of the basin to semi-arid and D can be found from measurements or by rough es- arid conditions in the western part.
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