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Developing Pathways to Low-Carbon Transport in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

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Developing Pathways to Low-Carbon Transport in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Completion Report Project Number: 48021-001 Technical Assistance Number: 8775 March 2018 People’s Republic of China: Developing Pathways to Low-Carbon Transport in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region This document is being disclosed to the public in accordance with ADB’s Public Communications Policy 2011. In preparing any country program or strategy, financing any project, or by making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. TA Number, Country, and Name: Amount Approved: $1,000,000.00 TA 8775-PRC: Developing Pathways to Low-Carbon Revised Amount: NA Transport in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Executing Agency: Source of Funding: Amount Undisbursed: Amount Utilized: Ningxia Finance Department Technical Assistance $314,301.60 $685,698.40 Special Fund-Others Climate Change Fund TA Approval TA Signing Fielding of First TA Completion Date Date: Date: Consultant: Original: 30 April 2016 Actual: 31 December 2016, 3 Dec 2014 20 Dec 2014 21 May 2015 Account Closing Date Original: 31 July 2016 Actual: 20 April 2017 Description The purpose of the policy and advisory technical assistance (TA) was to assist the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR) government and five prefecture city governments in formulating strategies and policies for low-carbon transport.a The People’s Republic of China (PRC), in its 13th Five-Year Plan, aims to address air pollution from transport, in order to “maintain acceptable air quality levels in major cities for 80% of days by the end of 2020”.b However, this will be challenging to implement in the transport sector as the objective of reducing transport carbon emissions has often been subordinated to the pursuit of economic growth and urbanization at the local level. The lack of locally adapted objectives and indicators, and weaknesses in the process for designing, monitoring, and evaluating low-carbon transport, need to be addressed at provincial, local, and municipal government levels. NHAR is located in northwestern PRC. It is experiencing rapid urbanization, with the urban population reaching 3.69 million in 2015. It has five prefecture cities, 22 counties, and 192 townships. It has not so far developed a specific policy on low-carbon transport at the provincial and city government levels. The TA was designed to assist the NHAR government and five prefecture city governments in formulating strategies and policies for low-carbon transport.c The TA is consistent with the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) 2011–2015 PRC country partnership strategy (CPS),d which supports the government’s efforts to foster a cleaner and more sustainable growth process by supporting the development of low-carbon transport systems, particularly in public transport. Expected Impact, Outcome, and Outputs The expected impact of the TA was reduced carbon emissions from the transport sector in the NHAR by 25% in 2030 compared to a business-as-usual baseline projection for the same year. The outcome of the TA was an adopted low- carbon transport policy with supporting government reform and private sector participation, as reflected in avoid-shift- improve strategies (ASI)e incorporated in transport investment plans and the province’s development targets. The five outputs of the TA included (i) identification and adoption of the ASI strategies and preparation of phased implementation plan; (ii) estimation of carbon emissions and development of a monitoring framework; (iii) development of a prioritization strategy and a financial and investment plan for implementation of the provincial low carbon plan; (iv) institutional reform and capacity development to support the ASI strategy implementation; (v) develop knowledge products on a low-carbon transport policy and strategies for small cities and provinces in the PRC. Delivery of Inputs and Conduct of Activities The TA engaged a consulting firm (16.1 person-months), one international individual consultant (1.15 person-months), and seven national individual consultants (37 person-months) to implement the TA activities. The consultants were experts in (i) low-carbon urban transport policy and strategies; (ii) travel demand forecast methods and practices; (iii) emissions estimation methods; (iv) cost estimates for policy and investment project implementation; and (v) organizational structures and financial mechanisms in the transport sector of the PRC Government. The TA adopted the enable-avoid-shift-improve paradigm, adding “enable”f from the initial design, for developing a low-carbon transport strategy for each of the NHAR’s five prefecture cities. A set of an international consulting firm, a national consulting firm, and 3 individual consultants (1 international and 2 nationals) was originally planned to be engaged. The international consulting firm was engaged five months after advertisement while the national consultants were engaged several months after the international consulting firm commenced their services. There was difficulty in selecting the appropriate candidates for the consulting positions which contributed to the delay in the commencement of activities. Due to the delay in engaging the consultants, the TA completion date was extended for eight months. The national consulting firm was not recruited, and only individual consultants were selected for national experts, which left some unutilized TA funds. Lower costs of workshop venues and other activities also contributed to the relatively high undisbursed amount (31% of the original allocation). The inception mission was conducted on 26–29 January 2016, and the inception report was submitted on 22 February 2016. Traffic surveys were conducted in the five study areas to be able to estimate carbon emissions in each prefecture. The consultants delivered intended outputs and performed satisfactorily. They produced low carbon transport strategy for five cities with indicative implementation schedule and investment amount needed. The recommended strategies were based on the extensive traffic survey for all five cities, and carbon emission estimation for five cities were conducted successfully. The consultants submitted the inception report and draft final report within allocated time frame. The executing agency’s performance was satisfactory. They coordinated with five different cities to participate in the TA activities in the field including surveys, interviews with transport officers and bus operators during the early stage of the TA implementation. They successfully convened representatives from all five cities to participate in two workshops and managed to receive feedback from the five cities for inclusion in the draft final report. ADB’s performance was satisfactory. It closely monitored the work progress of the consultants through inception mission, one review mission, and provided strong guidance and direction of the TA. Evaluation of Outputs and Achievement of Outcome The TA was relevant with TA recommendations serving as guidance to the low carbon transport policy formulation of the participating local governments. A key recommendation was promotion of a “Pull and Push” approach, where a combined policy of reducing the attractiveness of the car and increasing it for public transport and non-motorized transport was emphasized. All five outputs were delivered in one consolidated main report and one separate traffic survey report. The five cities’ transport profiles were prepared as an appendix and corresponding recommendations for five cities were presented in a systematic way in the main chapters. The knowledge product appended to the main report explained the methodology for estimating the city-wide carbon dioxide for urban transport. The knowledge product was drafted for publication and shared with the government officers and relevant stakeholders. All outputs were delivered on time thus making the TA efficient, but the expected outcome “adoption of a low-carbon transport policy” was not formally announced by the provincial and local governments as of this completion report preparation. This means that adoption of policy recommendation generated by ADB TA to the governments’ policy requires further steps. The TA is therefore rated less than effective. Overall Assessment and Rating The TA is rated less than successful. Although the TA delivered the outputs within the budget and the extended schedule, and the provincial and local governments accepted the outputs well, the outcome—adoption of low-carbon transport policy—was not realized by the provincial and local governments a year after TA completion making sustainability less likely. The TA provided a good reference for future policy formulation for local and provincial governments and a further step is needed within the PRC’s government structure to interpret the recommendation to a formal policy. Major Lessons There are three major lessons from the TA: (i) the TA provided a good communication and participation opportunity for all stakeholders including provincial government, five local governments, bus and taxi companies, consulting team and ADB during TA implementation; (ii) Good leadership and active involvement of transport departments by the provincial government (EA) is crucial for a TA with many different stakeholders; and (iii) Even if the TA was requested by the provincial government through National Development and Reform Commission, there is a limitation for the TA to induce provincial and
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