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Functioning and Changes in the Streamflow Generation of Catchments

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Functioning and Changes in the Streamflow Generation of Catchments Ecohydrology in space and time: functioning and changes in the streamflow generation of catchments Ralph Trancoso Bachelor Forest Engineering Masters Tropical Forests Sciences Masters Applied Geosciences A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at The University of Queensland in 2016 School of Earth and Environmental Sciences Trancoso, R. (2016) PhD Thesis, The University of Queensland Abstract Surface freshwater yield is a service provided by catchments, which cycle water intake by partitioning precipitation into evapotranspiration and streamflow. Streamflow generation is experiencing changes globally due to climate- and human-induced changes currently taking place in catchments. However, the direct attribution of streamflow changes to specific catchment modification processes is challenging because catchment functioning results from multiple interactions among distinct drivers (i.e., climate, soils, topography and vegetation). These drivers have coevolved until ecohydrological equilibrium is achieved between the water and energy fluxes. Therefore, the coevolution of catchment drivers and their spatial heterogeneity makes their functioning and response to changes unique and poses a challenge to expanding our ecohydrological knowledge. Addressing these problems is crucial to enabling sustainable water resource management and water supply for society and ecosystems. This thesis explores an extensive dataset of catchments situated along a climatic gradient in eastern Australia to understand the spatial and temporal variation in their ecohydrological functioning and to potentially identify responses to climate- and human-induced changes. To address this aim, the thesis has four major objectives: 1) to investigate how streamflow similarity varies according to the annual water and energy balances and to determine to what degree biophysical drivers of runoff explain the observed spatial streamflow variability; 2) to determine the changes in the drivers of key streamflow characteristics across different regions and scales; 3) to examine long-term ecohydrological changes in the water and energy balances of catchments and separate out the climate- and human-induced components; and 4) to investigate trends in baseflow and separate the contribution of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and elevated atmospheric CO2 feedbacks with vegetation. Three hundred and fifty five catchments were analysed spanning a tropical to Mediterranean climatic gradient in the Australian east coast over multiple periods of time. An extensive dataset was compiled and analysed, composed of: daily streamflow and precipitation time series, monthly satellite-based time-series of vegetation, model-based soil moisture and temperature, and spatial data of land-cover, topography, soil properties, physiography, bioregions and human population density. To address the first objective, catchments were classified using streamflow signatures and modelling was used to relate the spectrum of water and energy balances (Budyko framework) to the Ecohydrology in space and time i Trancoso, R. (2016) PhD Thesis, The University of Queensland drivers of runoff generation (Dunne diagram). To address the second objective a robust statistical modelling framework was applied to understand changes in streamflow drivers with regions and scales. In the third objective, the temporal displacement into the Budyko framework and its decomposition into climate and human-induced changes were examined. In the fourth objective, non-linear regressions and trend statistics were used to detect the influence of CO2-vegetation feedbacks in baseflow. In addressing the four objectives, the following contribution to the ecohydrological knowledge has been made: 1) The catchments were classified into five hydrological regimes, which vary along the spectrum of water and energy balances (Budyko framework). The drivers of runoff generation (from the Dunne diagram) explained 77% of the streamflow similarity. The findings highlighted a formal mechanistic link between the Budyko Framework and the Dunne diagram. 2) Specific biophysical drivers govern the spatial variability of streamflow characteristics and therefore cannot be generalized across different regions. However, important drivers associated to climate and vegetation are consistent at both regional and continental scale but with differing importance. Catchment soil properties have a significant effect on streamflow characteristics, especially at regional scales. 3) Both climate- and land cover-induced changes are altering the water and energy balances of catchments towards a streamflow reduction. The land cover-induced contribution to changes in streamflow is greater in water-limited catchments while energy-limited and equitant catchments experienced more climate-induced changes. Catchments are consistently moving towards a drier equilibrium regardless their aridity and streamflow regimes. 4) A consistent spatio-temporal decline is observed in baseflow. Although the observed trends are mostly explained by climate forcings, residual baseflow trends attributed to other factors are best explained by increasing photosynthetic activity. The elevated atmospheric CO2 and its associated vegetation feedbacks are reducing baseflow with more acute impacts in water- limited regions. The thesis findings provide new insights into the ecohydrological functioning and changes in freshwater availability currently taking place in eastern Australia with potentially profound implications for sustainable water resource management in other water-limited regions. The understanding of ecohydrological feedbacks over a range of regimes and their sensitivity to climate- induced changes and human-induced landscape modifications is pivotal to ensure freshwater supply for societal and environmental needs in water scarce environments. Ecohydrology in space and time ii Trancoso, R. (2016) PhD Thesis, The University of Queensland Declaration by author This thesis is composed of my original work, and contains no material previously published or written by another person except where due reference has been made in the text. I have clearly stated the contribution by others to jointly-authored works that I have included in my thesis. I have clearly stated the contribution of others to my thesis as a whole, including statistical assistance, survey design, data analysis, significant technical procedures, professional editorial advice, and any other original research work used or reported in my thesis. The content of my thesis is the result of work I have carried out since the commencement of my research higher degree candidature and does not include a substantial part of work that has been submitted to qualify for the award of any other degree or diploma in any university or other tertiary institution. I have clearly stated which parts of my thesis, if any, have been submitted to qualify for another award. I acknowledge that an electronic copy of my thesis must be lodged with the University Library and, subject to the policy and procedures of The University of Queensland, the thesis be made available for research and study in accordance with the Copyright Act 1968 unless a period of embargo has been approved by the Dean of the Graduate School. I acknowledge that copyright of all material contained in my thesis resides with the copyright holder(s) of that material. Where appropriate I have obtained copyright permission from the copyright holder to reproduce material in this thesis. Ecohydrology in space and time iii Trancoso, R. (2016) PhD Thesis, The University of Queensland Publications during candidature Peer-reviewed papers Trancoso R., Larsen J.R., McVicar T.R., Phinn S., McAlpine C. (2017). CO2 – Vegetation feedbacks and other climate changes implicated in reducing baseflow. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(5): 2310-2318, doi:10.1002/2017GL072759. (Incorporated as Chapter 5) Trancoso R., Phinn S., McVicar T.R., Larsen J.R., McAlpine C.A., (2017). Regional variation in streamflow drivers across a continental climatic gradient. Ecohydrology e1816. DOI:10.1002/eco.1816 (Incorporated as Chapter 3) Trancoso R., Larsen J.R., McAlpine C., McVicar T.R., Phinn S. (2016). Linking the Budyko framework and the Dunne diagram. Journal of Hydrology 535: 581-597. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.02.017 (Incorporated as Chapter 2) Trancoso R., Sano E.E., Meneses P, R. (2014). The spectral changes of deforestation in the Brazilian tropical savanna. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 187(1): 1-15. DOI:10.1007/s10661-014-4145-3 Conference abstracts Berghuijs, W., Woods, R.A., Aalbers, E., Trancoso R., Larsen, J. (2016). Recent changes in extreme floods across multiple continents. 2016 AGU Fall Meeting. Trancoso R. (2015). Catchment biophysical drivers of streamflow characteristics. 2015 AGU Fall Meeting. Trancoso R., McAlpine C., Phinn S., Larsen J.R., McVicar T.R. (2014). Hydrological similarity and controls of streamflow behaviour in eastern Australian catchments. 2014 AGU Fall Meeting. Book chapters Larsen, J., Leon, J., McGrath, C., Trancoso, R. (2013) Review of the catchment processes relevant to the Great Barrier Reef region. Australian Government. Great Marine Park Authority. e-book, 48p. Ecohydrology in space and time iv Trancoso, R. (2016) PhD Thesis, The University of Queensland Publications included in this thesis Trancoso R., Larsen J.R., McAlpine C., McVicar T.R., Phinn S. (2016). Linking the Budyko framework and the Dunne diagram. Journal of Hydrology 535: 581-597.
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