New Concept for Disaster Prevention, Mitigation and Relief in China in the New Era CAUTION HOMECOMING This project aligns with China’s new approach to disasters, which is to: This scenario story describes what Prioritize prevention; combine prevention with could happen to one fictional family preparedness and rescue; unify regular disaster reduction in the Linwei and Huazhou Districts of and extraordinary disaster relief; shift focus from post-disaster relief to prevention beforehand, from Weinan if the 1568 earthquake occurred

coping with single disaster to comprehensive disaster in the present day. reduction, and from reducing losses to mitigating disaster risks; fully raise the comprehensive capability It is NOT a prediction of a specific of the whole society to resist natural disasters. disaster. It does NOT mean that an HOME earthquake akin to the one described will happen in Weinan in the near This hypothetical scenario will help future. No one knows when or where you to understand the specific the next earthquake might occur, nor children “left-behind” with a family affects earthquake a strong how about A story consequences of a damaging earth- how large and damaging it might be. quake, in the hope of stimulating Rather, this fictional scenario story is MAIN IMPLEMENTATION ORGANIZATIONS an example to help people visualize COMING discussions among various local specific consequences and learn what relevant agencies to foster consensus, China you can do now to lessen the impacts and encourage action to strengthen • Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration (CEA) of any future possible earthquake. This local top-down earthquake disaster • China Earthquake Disaster Prevention Center (CEDPC) description is intended only for use in Janise Rodgers, Guiwu Su, • The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, China risk reduction pathways. planning and preparedness exercises Timothy Sim, Philip England, United Kingdom and United States and in raising awareness of local John Young, Wenhua Qi • Overseas Development Institute (ODI), UK earthquake risk. • Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, UK and others • Department of Architecture, University of Cambridge, UK Some actions taken by the children in • GeoHazards International (GHI), USA the story’s village setting may not be advisable in other contexts. The authors, FUNDERS funders, publishers and other contrib- • National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC), China utors to this report are not responsible • Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), UK for any interpretation and use beyond • Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), UK the purposes stated. It is important to • Newton Fund, UK note that the story described is not a worst-case scenario. For emergency planning purposes, officials may also A story about how a strong wish to consider larger earthquakes, earthquake affects a family and earthquakes in different locations, (Version for Government Officials) different times of the day, and seasons with “left-behind” children of the year. Version for Government Officials

This scenario describes how a repeat of the historical 1568 Shaanxi Northeast Xi’an earth- quake could impact the life of a family with “left-behind” children in a rural village in Weinan if it occurred in the present day. HOME COMING

A story about how a strong earthquake affects a family with “left-behind” children

Version for Government Officials

Janise Rodgers, Guiwu Su, Timothy Sim, Philip England, John Young, Wenhua Qi and others NOTE CAUTION FOR READERS

Editorial committee

This scenario story describes what This document is intended for use could happen to one fictional family by local officials in Weinan, who Leading authors in the Linwei and Huazhou Districts already know their community well. For • Janise Rodgers GeoHazards International (GHI), USA of Weinan if the 1568 earthquake readers not local to the area, including • Guiwu Su Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration (CEA) occurred in the present day. international readers, this note provides • Timothy Sim The Hong Kong Polytechnic University (PolyU), China basic background about Weinan. • Philip England Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, UK It is NOT a prediction of a specific • John Young Overseas Development Institute (ODI), UK disaster. It does NOT mean that an Weinan is located to the east of Xi’an • Wenhua Qi Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration (CEA) earthquake akin to the one described in Shaanxi Province, in the Wei River will happen in Weinan in the near valley. Please see the map on page 12. Authors future. No one knows when or where The two municipal districts of the study Contributors from the same organization are listed in alphabetical order of their last names the next earthquake might occur, nor area, Linwei and Huazhou, contain how large and damaging it might be. the two main urban areas in Weinan • Xiaoli Li Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration (CEA) Rather, this fictional scenario story is prefecture (the prefecture is a larger • Zhiqiang Li an example to help people visualize administrative area with additional • Yaohui Liu specific consequences and learn what districts), as well as large rural areas • Min Qi • Lei Sun you can do now to lessen the impacts located in the valley, in the yellow- of any future possible earthquake. soil (loess) plateau and in the Qinling • Jie Gao China Earthquake Disaster Prevention Center • Dongming Wang This description is intended only for mountains to the south. As of 2017, these • Wei Shi use in planning and preparedness two districts had a total population of • Chunlan Guo The Hong Kong Polytechnic University (PolyU), China exercises and in raising awareness over 1.3 million and a Gross Domestic • Junlei Yu of local earthquake risk. Product of 46.6 billion RMB. • Xijie Feng Shaanxi Earthquake Agency, China • Ji Ma Some actions taken by the children in Linwei district adjoins eastern Xi’an, • Kun Chen Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration (CEA) the story’s village setting may not be which is one of the most historically • Yue Cao Overseas Development Institute (ODI), UK advisable in other contexts. The authors, and culturally important areas of funders, publishers and other contrib- the country with numerous heritage • Barry Parsons Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, UK utors to this report are not responsible sites. Weinan was devastated by the • Emily So Department of Architecture, University of Cambridge, UK for any interpretation and use beyond deadliest earthquake in recorded • Arrietta Chakos Urban Resilience Strategies, USA the purposes stated. It is important to history, the 1556 Huaxian earthquake • Craig Davis Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, USA (Retired) note that the story described is not a (approximately M8), and today • Alexander Densmore Department of Geography, Durham University, UK worst-case scenario. For emergency Weinan remains at risk from the • David Milledge School of Engineering, Newcastle University, UK planning purposes, officials may also numerous active earthquake faults wish to consider larger earthquakes, in the Wei River valley. and earthquakes in different locations, • Illustrator: Siu Kuen Lai Lotersy Arts and Printing Co., Hong Kong, China different times of the day, and seasons • Book Designer: Sandy Lui Lui & Co Design, Hong Kong, China of the year. HOMECOMING

2 3 4 HOMECOMING • • • • United Kingdom and United States • • • China include: PAGER-O project The main implementation organizations of the operative actionforreducingearthquakerisk. to earthquakeresilience,andmotivateco- co-identify earthquakerisk,co-explorepathways researchers andlocalstakeholdersto science, socialpolicyandengineering team ofinternationalandChinesephysical City, whichbroughttogetheratrans-disciplinary develop anearthquakescenarioforWeinan approachto highly collaborative,participatory resilience toearthquakes.Theprojectuseda disaster riskreduction(DRR)toimprove top-down andbottom-upapproachesto gaps betweenscienceandpolicy area withthespecificgoalofbridging The PAGER-O projectfocusedontheOrdos in earthquake-prone regions in China. multi-hazards from risks reduce and resilience increase to sciences social and physical of strengths the combine to aimed programme This UK. the of (ESRC) Council Research Social and Economic the and (NERC) Council Research Environment Natural the by and (NSFC) China by the National Natural Science Foundation of funded Area) Ordos the in Risks Earthquake of Pan-participatory Assessment and Governance of an international collaboration (PAGER-O: This earthquake scenario narrative is a product information Background

GeoHazards International (GHI), USA (GHI), International GeoHazards University of Cambridge, UK Architecture, of Department University of Oxford, UK Department of Earth Sciences, Sciences, Earth of Department Overseas Development Institute (ODI), UK The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, China (CEDPC) Center China Earthquake Disaster Prevention Administration (CEA) Institute of Geology, China Earthquake

style of the book was designed by Sandy Lui. Lui. Sandy by designed was book the of style detailed the while Sim, Timothy and Su Guiwu Rodgers, Janise by led was narrative the of structure overall the of discussion and ideation creating scenarios. and using The earthquake on expertise provided Chakos Arrietta and casualty estimation Janise expertise. Rodgers provided So Emily while guidance, process and policy provided Yue Cao and Young John team. PolyU the and Sim Timothy and team, CEA the and Su Guiwu by research science social and Qi; Wenhua and Davis Craig by led vulnerability qualitative observations of infrastructure Densmore; Alexander and Milledge David by landslides for and CEDPC, of team Dongming’s Wang by buildings urban for CEA, at team Zhiqiang’s Li by buildings rural for calculations estimation loss Parsons; Barry and Chen Kun by estimates shaking ground Ma; Ji and Feng is based on active fault investigations by Xijie It Lai. Kuen Siu by illustrated and team, CEA the and Su Guiwu by Chinese into translated England, Philip and Chakos Yu, Arrietta Junlei Guo, Chunlan Qi, Wenhua Sim, Su, Timothy numerous team members including Guiwu from assistance with Rodgers Janise by written was story narrative scenario’s The England. Philip and Young John PIs did as guidance, and leadership project overall provided Su Guiwu PI • • United Kingdom • China T he principal investigators (PIs) of the project are: Sciences, University of Oxford Earth of Department from England Philip Development Institute John Young from Overseas Overseas from Young John Earthquake Administration (CEA) China Geology, of Institute from Su Guiwu

and resilience. to improving earthquake safety, preparedness, the top-down and the bottom-up approaches two different narratives is to facilitate bridging the of aim The public. general the is second the while officials, government is audience first The versions. Chinese the and English the have both narratives audience-specific two The risk. earthquake reduce to policies and sciences between gap the bridging facilitate to aiming such, of event the in area Weinan the on be might impacts the what of narratives specific audience- two by accompanied is analysis technical occur. to This was earthquake an such if areas, surrounding its and Weinan of city the to risks and vulnerabilities of and which explain the basis for calculations built, is scenario the which on earthquake, the basis for the hypothetical but plausible document that journals academic in papers technical adozen by supported is scenario The Brief introduction contents of the earthquake disaster risk reduction pathways. top-down local strengthen to action encourage and consensus, foster to agencies relevant local various among discussions stimulating of hope the in and scenario the of results technical the understand easily to officials government local help to both storylines the around woven were aspects two last The only.) officials for government version Chinese the in exists aspect This (Note: earthquake disaster risk reduction policies. some background information on top-down knowledge on earthquake disasters and The third is aspect the provision of some basic the technical papers mentioned above. in found be can information scientific detailed succinctly; and systematically presented are scenario the of results main the all Second, earthquake risk problems that Weinan faces. main the highlight to constructed carefully its The aftermath. of storylines this storywere and earthquake scenario the in experiences their and children, “left-behind” with family rural local, a describes story afictional First, following three aspects: the includes It use. officials government for is here presented narrative The

5 CONTENTS

Acknowledgments Introduction EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO STORY What is an earthquake scenario? 8 The characters 16 The PAGER-O project involved the contributions Sincere thanks go to many others, too of a large number of other local organizations, numerous to name. Many Shaanxi or Beijing- Weinan: historic devastation The best noodles 17 researchers and stakeholders working to based consultants gave constructive comments and current risk 10 Home is far away 18 reduce disaster risk. In particular, the authors and advice either on the development of the The real 1568 Shaanxi Gaoling Earthquake!!! 20 sincerely thank the following organizations for earthquake scenario, or on its communica- (Northeast Xi’an) earthquake 13 their substantial help and participation during tion products, or on application or replication Where is Grandma? 21 the progress of the work: directions of this kind of scenario approach. Characteristics of the study area 14 The community helps each other 24 Special thanks go to over 15 thousand local • Various divisions of Shaanxi primary or high school students, their teachers EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO FINDINGS Rushing home – Jianguo 32 Earthquake Agency and parents, and the general public for their • Weinan Earthquake Administration cooperative responses to questionnaires, Scenario earthquake 19 Rushing home – Haiyan 34 • Earthquake Administration Office of surveys, and interviews about earthquake Building damage 22 Waiting for morning to come 38 Huazhou district of Weinan disaster awareness, preparedness and • Weinan Education Administration resilience. Thanks go to the CCTB Translation Economic loss 27 Ma and Pa are back! 40 • Other numerous Weinan agencies in the Service in assisting the translation of “New Casualties 29 Looking for Grandma in the hospital 46 Leading Group on Protecting Against and Concept for Disaster Prevention, Mitigation and Mitigating Earthquake Disasters of Weinan Relief in China in the New Era”. Hospitals 29 Uncle Jianjun’s new earthquake story 49 • Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Disasters Housing impacts 30 Monitoring & Mechanism Simulation based Homemade chicken soup 52 at Baoji University of Arts and Sciences Communications 33 Building an earthquake- • School of Architecture and Civil Engineering Electrical power 35 resistant house 54 of Xi'an University of Science and Technology • Gender Development Solution of Landslides 37 Longing to go back to school 55 Shaanxi Province Liquefaction 39 A meal together 57 • Environmental Education Center of Beijing Normal University Gas and fuel 41 Water system 43 Highways, roads and bridges 44 Railways 51

Rural villages 53

Schools 56

Homecoming – A story about how a strong earthquake affects a family with “left-behind” children (Version for Government Officials)

HOMECOMING Janise Rodgers, Guiwu Su, Timothy Sim, Philip England, John Young, Wenhua Qi and others

Contact: Guiwu Su • Tel: 010-62009075 • Email: [email protected] • Address: Yard No.1, Hua Yan Li, Chaoyang District, Beijing, China, Postal code: 100029

Printed in April 2019 6 7 INTRODUCTION

Introduction

Where will I be? What is an Earthquake Scenario? 1568 A scenario tells the story of a plausible earthquake and how it would likely affect Where are my people, the community, and the places children, my spouse, we live. This story describes what could my parents? happen to one family in the Linwei and Huazhou Districts of Weinan if the 1568 approximately magnitude 7 (M7) Gaoling Has my family and Scenario (Northeast Xi’an) earthquake occurred community prepared Earthquake in the present day. The consequences for an earthquake? 1568 are based on standard methods that Gaoling engineers and scientists use to estimate (Northeast Xi’an) the shaking, damage and impacts on Approximately M7 people that a given earthquake may cause. It is not a prediction of a specific disaster. It does not mean that an earthquake like the one described will happen in Weinan in the near future. Do we know what to No one knows when or where the next Simulated do during heavy earthquake might occur, nor how large Scenario shaking, to stay safe? Impacts and damaging it might be. Rather, this scenario is an example to help you Present days visualize specific consequences, decide What must I do first? Linwei and how you might respond, and learn what Who will need me? Huazhou Districts, Weinan you can do now to lessen the impacts of any future earthquake. Rural family

This scenario begins with a hypothetical earthquake at 14:02 on a Saturday in April. Ask yourself: HOMECOMING

8 9 INTRODUCTION

Introduction

Weinan: Historic Devastation and Current Risk

On January 23, 1556, the Wei River In the scenario that follows, we examine The study area of this scenario includes We quantitatively modeled earthquake- Valley experienced the deadliest two municipal districts of Weinan City, induced landslides using remote sensing earthquake in recorded world history, what could happen if one of the historical Linwei District and Huazhou District and statistical methods. We estimated the approximately magnitude 8 Huaxian damaging earthquakes in the Wei River (Fig. 2). We estimated building damage liquefaction and impacts on various Earthquake. According to historical quantitatively based on the relevant lifelines qualitatively based on various records, 830,000 people lost their lives. Valley, the 1568 approximately magnitude 7 requirements of China’s national online open material, remote sensing Inscriptions at historic monuments Shaanxi Gaoling (Northeast Xi’an) earthquake, standard “The Code for earthquake images and limited field investigations. throughout the valley such as Nanshan disaster evaluation and its information Temple for Deity’s Protection from were to strike present-day Weinan. management system (GB/T 19428-2014). We must emphasize that this scenario is not Earthquake (南神山庙地震祭碑 ) The project team collected building data a prediction, but rather a tool to help you record the earthquake’s effects. The Although the 1556 Huaxian for a total building area of 71.52 million devastation so altered the interwoven earthquake, of approximately m2, using both field investigations and visualize possible earthquake impacts, and then strands of life in local communities that magnitude 8, caused massive remote sensing interpretation. plan and prepare for them. The damage and villages (e.g., Banjieshan ( 半截山 )) devastation, earthquakes of magnitude changed their names after the earthquake. 7, which happen much more consequences we describe need not happen. The 1556 Huaxian earthquake was not frequently, can cause serious damage the first earthquake to strike the Wei and heavy loss of life (Fig. 1). We have Collectively, we can prevent much River Valley, nor will it be the last. chosen a scenario based on such an damage in future earthquakes by acting earthquake because it is more relevant now to strengthen or replace weak The effects of this earthquake and to the timescales of importance buildings and older, seismically deficient others for which records are available for developing policies on disaster infrastructure, to avoid or mitigate risks have been painstakingly compiled and mitigation and urban planning. We from landslide-prone areas, problematic published by the Shaanxi Earthquake must emphasize, however, that we soils, and earthquake faults, to enhance Agency and local bureaus, and the cannot predict the location, time, people’s earthquake safety awareness, China Earthquake Administration①. or magnitude of the next damaging and to increase comprehensive resilience Geologists have studied the evidence earthquake. The next earthquake may of families, communities, schools, for past earthquakes, written in the be larger or smaller, and occur in a enterprises, and more and layers of rock and soil at the margins of different place and time. Our scenario at levels from the village, the valley②. Records written by people is just an example to help people to townships to the county. and by the earth itself tell us that the visualize the consequences of such By each doing our part, Wei River Valley has experienced many an earthquake, and to learn how to we can all contribute earthquakes. The tectonic forces that respond and prepare for a possible to a safer, stronger, more caused those earthquakes continue to damaging earthquake — whether it be resilient Weinan. stretch the valley, meaning that future near Weinan, or elsewhere in the Wei FIG. Historical literature description 1 earthquakes are inevitable. River Valley. of the consequences of 1568 Earthquake. This text is HOMECOMING translated on page 13. 1 The Great 1556 Huaxian Earthquake, by the Shaanxi Earthquake Agency, 2010; Earthquake Annals of Shaanxi Province, 2016, by the Shaanxi Earthquake Agency; and the Catalog of Chinese Historical Strong Earthquakes, by the China Earthquake Administration, 1995. 2 Ma Ji, Feng Xijie, Li Gaoyang, et al. 2016. The coseismic vertical displacements of surface rupture zone of the 1556 Huaxian earthquake. Seismology and Geology, 38(1): 22-30. 10 11 INTRODUCTION

Introduction

The Real 1568 Shaanxi Gaoling (Northeast Xi’an) Earthquake

Occurring 12 years after the devastating 1556 Huaxian earthquake, the 1568 Shaanxi Gaoling earthquake (formerly known as In Xingping, flat ground was made the 1568 Northeast Xi’an earthquake) was to rise and fall here and there. In its Fuping regarded as an aftershock. The following southern part, a thick dust cloud blocked Dali the sunlight. Nine of 10 houses tilted, descriptions of the 1568 earthquake’s impacts and many people and livestock were Weinan Yanliang were translated from The Catalog of Chinese injured or killed. Xi’an Linwei Historical Strong Earthquakes, 1995. In Weinan, there were houses that Weihe River nearly collapsed. Huazhou Huayin Gaoling Lintong In Baqiao and Liuxiang areas of Xi’an, and Huijun and Yongle areas In Fengxiang, the city wall was damaged and even collapsed, with many people 1556 Huaxian Earthquake of Jingyang, houses were all razed to the ground. All 85 people in Zhu and livestock injured. (Note: the record 1568 Northeast Xi’an Earthquake Zhongliang’s house in Pisha Village, and says this happened on April 6th, which all 117 people in Chen Chaoyuan’s house might be wrong.) in Fengzheng Village were crushed to Weinan-Jingyang fault ground rapture caused death. The ground cracked, fountains The earthquake was also (strongly) felt by 1568 earthquake other active faults Lantian of water gushed out, hills slid and by over 10 distant counties of Shaanxi, urban built-up area collapsed, and buried cave-dwellings. Shanxi, Gansu, and Hubei provinces. study area 0 5 10 15 Luonan20 30 40 km These included Fuping, Baishui,

FIG. The study area for this scenario: Linwei and Huazhou districts of Weinan. Red circles In Xianyang, Jingyang and Gaoling Zhouzhi, Huxian, and Yan’an counties 2 indicate epicenters of historical earthquakes, as estimated from historical records. cities, no houses were left intact, leaving of Shaanxi province; Puzhou, Ronghe, many people and livestock injured and Hejin counties of Shanxi province; or dead. Similar consequences also Pingliang, Qingyang, and Huaixian occurred in Lintong, Xianning and counties of Gansu province (note: the Chang’an counties. record says this happened on April 6th in these three counties, which might be wrong); and Guanghua county of Hubei province (note: the record says this happened in April). HOMECOMING

12 13 14 HOMECOMING Introduction TABLE FIG. District

FIG. 3 1 Characteristics of StudyCharacteristics the Area Huazhou Linwei Total 4 Typical buildings in the study area and locations most and commonly found study area the in Typical buildings (2017) economic and study ofarea status the social Overall A long-range photo of Linwei city Linwei of photo A long-range

10,000 persons

Population Concrete frame Concrete Brick concrete Brick 130.26 130.26 96.43 96.43 33.83 no buildings rural area urban area

persons 10,000 Population 46.05 46.05 53.51 Urban 7.46

persons 10,000 Population 50.38 26.37 76.75 Rural Rural

Urbanization Brick concrete Brick Brick-wood rate /% rate 22.06 22.06 47.75 —

2,396.22 1,132.46 1,263.76 Area km 2

km built-up area 79.30 93.35 14.05 Urban 2

Concrete frame Concrete RMB yuan bil. Earth-wood 46.55 46.55 37.05 9.50 GDP

Per Capita Capita Per RMB yuan 28,081 38,421 GDP — Unit: hundred square meters square hundred Unit: FIG. 5 0 Brick-wood Concrete frame Distribution of each building type in the study area the in type Distribution building of each District District Linwei Linwei

50 TABLE

2 Earth-wood Brick-concrete Total area Brick-wood Concrete frame Concrete Huazhou Huazhou

100 District District Total area and percentage of each type of building ofTotal building percentage and type of area each

200

500 million m 46.06 71.52 1,000 17.56 24.55 0.35 7.55 Earth-wood Brick masonary Area District District Total area Linwei Linwei 2

2,000 Proportion of of building

Huazhou Huazhou type each District District 100.00 64.40 5,000 10.56 0.49 %

10,000 million m 0.003 45.18 17.56 27.62

18,000 0001 Urban area Area 2

The two districts have a total building building have a total districts two The The buildings in rural parts of the of parts rural in The buildings and Linwei urban in The buildings 79.08% are for residential use. 79.08% for residential are For the whole study area, the the area, whole study For the Huazhou are almost all brick-concrete all almost are Huazhou (70.02%) brick-wood and (28.66%) (38.86%). buildings, urban these Of (61.13%) buildings frame concrete and taking up 36.83%. taking the rural parts have 26.34 million m million have 26.34 parts rural the Area ratio Area proportions of earth-wood, brick-wood, brick-wood, earth-wood, of proportions 63.17% of the total building area, while while area, 63.17% building total of the up taking buildings), individual 62,800 buildings. Almost all rural buildings buildings rural all Almost buildings. 10.56%, 64.40%, 0.49%, are buildings frame concrete and brick-concrete, locations have 45.18 million m 45.18 have million locations study area are almost all brick-concrete all almost are area study area of 71.52 million m of 71.52area million are for residential use. for residential are respectively. 24.55% and Proportion of of building Earth-wood — 0.49% — Earth-wood Brick-wood —10.56% —64.40% concrete Brick —24.55% frame Concrete

type each 100.00 0.007 0.003 38.86 61.13 %

million m 26.34 0.349 18.44 7.547 Rural area Area 2 . Urban . Urban 0 2

Proportion of INTRODUCTION of building 2 each type type each (over 100.00 28.66 70.02 0.00 1.32 2 , % 15 EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO STORY

Earthquake Scenario Story

had been staying since Monday. “I miss your noodles during the week, The Characters The Best Noodles Grandma,” Xiaomei said. “The noodles in our school are good, but TIME Friday evening, April yours are the best.” “Yeah, theirs BEIJING PLACE Xingfu Village, atop the Weinan tableland in Linwei District aren’t nearly as good,” added Xiaoshuai. “Why can’t you come and be the cook at our school?” “Eat some more Saozi mian, year-old grin and returned to asked Xiaomei. Grandma laughed. Xiaomei,” Grandma instructed, slurping down his noodles at an “That’s just what I want to do in my lifting another portion of the thick astonishing rate. “Yeah – save me old age, feed a hundred children noodles into Xiaomei’s bowl. some!” eight-year-old Xiaomei every day that eat like you two.” “Otherwise, your brother will eat protested, lifting a noodle and WEINAN them all.” Turning to Xiaoshuai, eating it almost as quickly. It was she admonished,” You eat so a Friday evening in April, and the “And besides,” she said more XI’AN SHANGHAI much these days, but you are siblings had just returned home seriously, “who would take care still that thin. Where does it all from school in a neighboring of the orchard? Without your go?” Xiaoshuai flashed a twelve- village of Linwei district, where they grandfather, it’s just me and your uncle – when he can come up and help me a little bit – now that your father is in Shanghai building those tall buildings and your mother is serving people noodles at that restaurant down in Xi’an.” “I know,” said Xiaomei, “but it’s nice to imagine. And why can’t Ma come home more often, on the weekend, like she used to? I miss her and Pa so much!” Across the table that their grandfather had made, before he got sick, Xiaoshuai shot his sister a cautioning look. He was Haiyan Grandma Xiaoshuai Xiaomei Uncle Jianjun Jianguo old enough to notice the hint of In her 30s, 60 years old, 12-year-old 8-year-old 28 years old, In his 30s, older sadness in Grandma’s voice every daughter-in-law, mother of Jianguo grandson, granddaughter, younger son, a son, works on time she had to answer that type works waiting and Jianjun, she attends school attends school veteran, works a concrete crew of question, even though her reply tables at a looks after two in a neighboring in a neighboring as a government for a construc- was predictably cheerful. restaurant in grandchildren and village village officer in Weinan tion company in This time was no different. Xi’an their orchard, in Shanghai “Xiaomei, we can’t keep all the a village on the good noodles to ourselves, now Weinan tableland can we?” asked Grandma with

HOMECOMING a grin. “Now,” she said, clapping her hands together, “finish eating so that we’ll have time to clean up before your father calls.”

16 17 EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO STORY SCENARIO FINDINGS Scenario Earthquake

The scenario earthquake strikes Home is Far Away the 1568 approximately IF M7 earthquake occurs in TIME At 14:02 local time on a Saturday of April TIME Friday 21:30 the present day... PLACE Xi’an and Shanghai Along the Weinan-Jingyang Fault on the PLACE west side of Linwei district, towards Xi’an “Pick up the phooone,” muttered Haiyan, laughing. “Now, because a bonus,” he said triumphantly. Haiyan into her phone, as she Somebody wouldn’t pick up my This was the tallest building An approximately M7 earthquake tapped the video call icon for the call, I have only 10 minutes before Huangpu Building Construction third time. “My break is going to staff dinner. How was your day? had ever built, business was good, be over in 10 minutes.” She closed Did you talk to the kids yet?” and the executive director was her eyes in frustration, only to hear feeling generous. He was also a “Hiiiii beee-yooouuu-teee-fulll” shrewd businessman. Mr. Liu was coming from her phone. She hid “Just talked to them. Today was experimenting with performance a grin behind her hand. Jianguo’s great - we’re up to the 50th floor!” incentives to see if that would sense of humor didn’t seem to he beamed. “We should finish in a increase the productivity of key work diminish by what must have been month, and then the boss Mr. Liu crews. The bonus would replace a long day pumping concrete for says the top-performing concrete Haiyan’s week of pay, plus a little the new skyscraper his employer crews can all have a week off at more. Jianguo watched as Haiyan was building. He had sent her a home before we start the next let herself smile. photo of the Shanghai construc- job. So far, we are the top crew. tion site every day, taken at the If you can get time off then too, we can go back home together.” same spot with himself in some LEGEND While a whole week together with silly pose. She was putting them epicenter surface together into a time lapse video for Xiaoshuai and Xiaomei was nearly isoseismal projection of the line rupture place the kids. too nice to think about, Haiyan worried about taking time off. river lake or reservoir

“I thought you were asleep FIG. Shaking intensity map of a repeat of the approximately M7 1568 Shaanxi Gaoling because you weren’t picking up. “That’s great, but how can we 6 (Northeast Xi’an) earthquake Aren’t you tired?” she asked. “And afford it, Jianguo? We just came miss talking to my beautiful wife home for Spring Festival. We could At 14:02 local time on a Saturday of structures, and buildings. Near the after her long evening of slinging barely make our payment to the April, an approximately M7 earthquake fault, the shaking is intensity IX to X, noodles? Noooo.” “I do NOT sling lender. How can we take a week anybody’s noodles!” retorted off again so soon?” “Don’t worry! occurs along the Weinan-Jingyang meaning that people riding bicycles fall Mr. Liu is going to give the top two Fault on the west side of Linwei district, down, many buildings are damaged and crews a full week, paid.” Jianguo towards Xi’an. The earthquake ruptures destroyed, and slopes collapse. Similarly paused for effect, watching his the ground surface for 56 km, with strong shaking has been observed in wife’s expression carefully. “And the north side of the fault moving past earthquakes of this type and size downwards relative to the south side elsewhere in the world. In urban Linwei, HOMECOMING by more than 60 cm on average, and the ground shakes strongly for more by more than 1 m in some locations. than 20 seconds. (In comparison, the This fault movement damages rail 2008 Wenchuan earthquake shook for 18 lines, roads, pipes, flood protection up to 90 seconds.) 19 20 HOMECOMING interrupted Xiaoshuai’sinterrupted thoughts. bump Asudden when… time the Like him. to done had she things little-sister the all for it deserved certainly She Xiaomei. teasing resist couldn’t he true, wasn’t it knew he though Even aroot. on tripping almost shoulder, his over shouted Slow,” So Xiaoshuai start, ahead got you if even you beat would “I fair!” not –it’s start head a get always “You him. behind path the down shrieking came sister younger his I’m not!” “No, taunted. he Xiaomei!” slow, so “You’re past. flashing trees of rows the path, the down ran Xiaoshuai EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO STORY Earthquake!!!

PLACE TIME

down on the ground!” the on down Earthquake! Xiaomei, crouch learned at school. “Earthquake! he tips some and Jianjun uncle his from stories of bits remembered he aflash, In anymore. run couldn’t he and shake, to started really ground the sister, his for back look to turned he as Just louder. much but thunder, distant or atrain like anoise heard He sideways. move to seemed him beneath path –the strange very something felt and faster go to him if he turned around, he tried catch would Xiaomei Thinking tableland in Linwei District District Linwei in tableland Weinan the atop Village, Xingfu Saturday 14:02 from the back and bring them.” bring and back the from else everyone get “I’ll ordered. Mai spot,” Ms. one in outside stay and together servers the Get before! Or stopped. shaking the as soon as gone long all were customers the course of door. And back the out go staff kitchen the saw “I replied. Mai off,” Ms. is gas the sure make to went Mr. who but Li everyone Ithink “Yes, manager. the Mai, Ms. to shoulder her over called she out?” everyone “Is space. open an for looking crowd, coworkers threaded through the her and Haiyan calls. distress by overloaded were systems get through because the phone could one No conversations. few were there but phone, their on and earthquake the after edge on was Everyone stand. to place available every filling Xi’an, south in Yanta Road packed People

PLACE TIME

Xi’an south in restaurant The Saturday 14:05 “Xiaoshuai, wait!” called Xiaomei Xiaomei called wait!” “Xiaoshuai, There was so much dust we could could we dust much so was There Through the dimness, Xiaoshuai Xiaoshuai called out. There was was There out. called Xiaoshuai could hear him. There was another another was There him. hear could cracks large saw They ground. as tall and straight anymore. As As anymore. straight and tall as corner the if as shape, a strange was It it? was Or house. their of outline the out make just could dust. Hurry! You know Grandma’s You Grandma’s know Hurry! dust. as he turned and took his sister’s sister’s his took and turned he as think “I village. their over drifting collapsing buildings had sent Grandma! Where are you?” you?” are Where Grandma! Grandma was somewhere and and somewhere was Grandma shouted toward the house, hoping so you won’t breathe in so much much so in breathe won’t you so fearful of going closer. “Grandma! “Grandma! closer. going of fearful they came closer, they could see see could they closer, came they the edge of the loess plateau and and plateau loess the of edge the can “I cloud, dust thick the through worried about us.” about worried barely see to come home,” he home,” he come to see barely barely see you.” Landslides along along you.” see Landslides barely in the walls and stopped short, short, stopped and walls the in it’s getting thicker,” Xiaoshuai said said thicker,” Xiaoshuai getting it’s be to seemed all air. It the into muffled noise. “Grandma?” called called “Grandma?” noise. muffled we’re okay. here, “We’re noise. muffled asoft only answer, no the on heaps in lying tiles roof hand, and the tall roof wasn’t wasn’t roof tall the and hand, by agiant off sawn been had hand, “cover your nose and mouth billowing dust of clouds large Where isGrandma?

PLACE TIME

The back corner of the house house the of corner back The Xiaoshuai said to his sister. “Where “Where sister. his to said Xiaoshuai afaint was there Again Xiaomei. a pile of bricks, Xiaomei spotted spotted Xiaomei bricks, of a pile sound. the toward ran They corner. are you? If you can hear us, say say us, hear can you If you? are Grandma’s shirt. Another muffled muffled Another shirt. Grandma’s sound came from the direction direction the from came sound Near club. by agiant smashed something,” he shouted back back shouted he something,” her! “That’s “Grandma?” sound. tell it was coming from the back back the from coming was it tell faint Another house. the toward was obliterated, like it had been been had it like obliterated, was noise, and this time they could could they time this and noise, I think she’s somewhere inside,” inside,” she’s somewhere I think tableland in Linwei District District Linwei in tableland Weinan the atop Village, Xingfu 14:06 Saturday “Grandma, we’re going to get you you get to we’re going “Grandma, bricks. those underneath “She’s Those bricks will fall on you,” cried you,” on fall cried will bricks Those pointing. Xiaomei, shouted There,” Xiaoshuai shot back, yanking his his yanking back, shot Xiaoshuai by back him holding Xiaomei, arm free. “Go get Mr. Zhang to to Mr. get Zhang “Go free. arm out,” called Xiaoshuai, moving moving Xiaoshuai, out,” called hung bricks Loose pile. the of the arm. “We have to get her out out her get to have “We arm. the Xiaoshuai! “No, pile. the toward before there’s an aftershock,” aftershock,” an there’s before part of the shattered wall above. above. wall shattered the of part help. Run fast.” Run help. like teeth from the still-standing still-standing the from teeth like EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO STORY 21 EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO FINDINGS SCENARIO FINDINGS Building Damage

Overview of building damage

RECOMMEN- Across Linwei and Huazhou districts, the 1568 approximately DATIONS FIG. Distribution of severely damaged and collapsed IF M7 earthquake occurs in cracks lace across walls and columns, bricks 7 buildings in the study area the present day... fall, and roofing tiles crash to the ground. N Urban parts Rural parts Ensuring that all new Linwei and of Linwei and of Linwei and buildings comply with Huazhou districts: 2 Huazhou districts: Huazhou districts: building codes for 71.52 million m 2 2 45.18 million m 26.34 million m earthquake resistance, buildings in total buildings in total buildings in total including owner-built (62,800 houses in rural areas, Linwei District ESTIMATE ESTIMATE individual ESTIMATE will prevent tragic loss of buildings) life by keeping buildings from collapsing in future earthquakes. Existing Moderate to Moderate to Moderate to vulnerable buildings can Severe Damage Severe Damage Severe Damage Huazhou District be replaced with new, More than 33.5 million m2 Around 23.08 million m2 Around 10.42 million m2 earthquake-resistant buildings suffer moderate buildings suffer moderate buildings suffer moderate ones, or strengthened in to severe damage. Percentage to severe damage. Percentage to severe damage. Percentage a process called seismic of the total area of of the total area of buildings of the total area of buildings retrofitting. all buildings: in urban parts: in rural parts: isoseismal line 46.8% 51.1% 39.5% ratio of severely damaged and earthquake-resistant features. collapsed buildings (%) Unreinforced masonry buildings, 0 Collapses Collapses Collapses 0-10 0 5 10 20 like the Zhao family home and the 10-20 km About 3.46 million m2 Around 1.89 million m2 About 1.57 million m2 new village leader Mr. Wang’s house 20-30 30-40 Each colored square shows the area collapse. Percentage of buildings collapse. Percentage collapse. Percentage of in the story, are hardest hit. In urban 40-50 ratio of severely damaged and collapsed the total area of all of the total area of buildings the total area of buildings 50-60 buildings expected for that 1 square Linwei, small commercial and older 60-70 kilometer scope / grid, and the darker buildings: in urban parts: in rural parts: residential masonry buildings also suffer 70-86 the color, the higher the ratio. 4.8% 4.1% 6.0% proportionally heavier damage. Many of these buildings were built before modern earthquake-resistant codes. Even Rural areas in western Linwei district earthquake shaking, nearly 1.33 million in the comparatively newer buildings, the suffer very strong shaking and the m2 of these buildings collapse, taking up decorations and partition walls might be heaviest building damage. In rural 7.9% of the total building area in rural damaged and required to be repaired in Linwei area, there are 16.77 million Linwei, and a further 7.27 million m2 a short time after the earthquake. m2 buildings, and almost all of them suffer moderate to severe damage, 43.4% are either the brick-wood (28.7%) or of the total rural buildings of Linwei Huazhou district is farther from the

HOMECOMING brick-concrete (70%) type according to district. Most of these rural buildings are earthquake fault, so the shaking is not so the commonly used Chinese building self-built by owners, and not constructed strong as the one in Linwei. There is less type classification. Under the scenario to any building code or with damage in Huazhou.

22 23 24 HOMECOMING EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO STORY Each Other Each The Community Helps

PLACE TIME

Zhang Ming was okay and that he he that and okay was Ming Zhang Xiaomei took a long look at her her at look along took Xiaomei family lived. She knew Xiaoshuai Xiaoshuai knew She lived. family Zhang the where street the to she as fast as ran and turned what to do otherwise. Mr. Zhang Mr. Zhang otherwise. do to what know didn’t She home. at still was too, help need to going were She Xiaoshuai. and her to up was Grandma Rescuing Xi’an. in was mother their and Shanghai in was acivil as worked now he where Weinan from up come to weekend Uncle Jianjun, who had been been had who Jianjun, Uncle and father their like alot was damaged the inside go would Ming was one of the few people people few the of one was Ming she thought. She hoped that Mr. that hoped She thought. she father their course, of And servant. cleared, and she sprinted past past sprinted she and cleared, about rescuing trapped people. could toward the lane and down down and lane the toward could brother’s determined face, and and face, determined brother’s remaining in the village that could could that village the in remaining houses once stood. Other people people Other stood. once houses and gates where rubble of heaps mostly had dust By now, the time. in help with back get could she hoped Jianjun’s Uncle not was this But stories them told and earthquake 2008 the during military the in house to try to free Grandma. He He Grandma. free to try to house tableland in Linwei District District Linwei in tableland Weinan the atop Village, Xingfu Saturday 14:43 “Grandma, I’m coming!” he he I’m coming!” “Grandma, Zhang!...” Xiaomei gasped. After After Zhang!...” gasped. Xiaomei Xiaoshuai took a deep breath. breath. adeep took Xiaoshuai Xiaomei sped around the corner corner the around sped Xiaomei Almost everyone turned to look look to turned everyone Almost much have not did it aresult, As the elder Mr. Zhang, Mr. Zhang Mr. Mr. Zhang Zhang, elder the the street, and skidded to a to skidded and street, the the into and stood, once wall the where of base the at bricks few Slow down, and tell me what what me tell and down, Slow Ming’s elderly father. He had had He father. elderly Ming’s complete sentence out. “Xiaomei! Grandpa Zhang! “Grandpa stop. for Project Training Skill the under the across stepping shouted, work. to cities the to gone at Xiaomei as she flew down down flew she as Xiaomei at there! were People damage. trained builders employing and an earthquake-resistant design had Zhangs The standing. still house Zhang the saw and happened to your family,” said family,” your said to happened a get not could she running, had others The things. heavy lift Earthquake-Resistant Buildings. Buildings. Earthquake-Resistant on Workers Construction Rural using house, anew built recently house. was still able to take charge of a of charge take to able still was Mrs. Zhang sat holding a small, asmall, holding sat Zhang Mrs. stood at his side. They had been been had They side. his at stood nephews teenage his of one and Yan, daughter-in-law his one, strong the Ming, son His situation. crying child. crying planning what to do. The elderly elderly do. The to what planning leader a few years ago, but he he but ago, years afew leader village the being from retired

“Grandma is trapped under a under trapped is “Grandma Zhang asked. “We heard her but but her heard “We asked. Zhang under all those bricks. “Can you you “Can bricks. those all under come now and help dig her out!” out!” her dig help and now come she thought of her grandmother pile of bricks, the wall fell on on fell wall the bricks, of pile her,” Xiaomei panted, “please “please panted, her,” Xiaomei hear or see her?” the elder Mr. elder the her?” see or hear as up well to started tears Her EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO STORY 25 EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO STORY SCENARIO FINDINGS Economic Loss

Xiaomei!” ordered Zhang Ming. Distribution of the direct economic loss caused by “Go see if you can find your brother the 1568 approximately FIG. 8 building damage alone in the study area a pair of gloves and a basket for IF M7 earthquake occurs in the present day... carrying bricks. Look in the yard. N Don’t go back in the house. Good work, Xiaoshuai, but you go out too. I don’t want you under this The estimated direct economic losses damaged wall. Work from the from building damage alone could be outside. And first see if you can over 41.4 billion yuan RMB, which find a board to put underneath almost equals the present day total Linwei District her so we can lift her without annual GDP of the two districts (46.55 moving her as much.” As Xiaomei all we can see is part of her shirt. billion yuan RMB in 2017). and Xiaoshuai ran to do as asked, Please hurry! Xiaoshuai is there Xiaomei took off at a sprint. Zhang Ming turned back to by himself and I am afraid he Jogging behind, Zhang Ming Grandma. “We’re going to get you will go in and more bricks will fall Economic loss by building type Huazhou District pulled on a pair of work gloves. out, Grandma Zhao.” down on him or an aftershock will When they reached the house, happen,” she blurted out, words Concrete frame — 29.5% Xiaoshuai was indeed inside, running together and tears now Thirty minutes later, Grandma Brick concrete — 59.97% picking up bricks one at a time running down her cheeks. was finally out of the house. One Brick-wood — 10.22% from the pile, and tossing them leg was clearly badly broken, aside. He had managed to fully Earth-wood — 0.31% so Zhang Ming splinted it to a isoseismal line “Mingming, go with Xiaomei now! uncover Grandma’s head and board with strips of cloth. The direct economic loss Be careful not to hurt Grandma arms, which were dusty but (ten thousand RMB) other was bruised and swollen. Zhao further when you take her otherwise looked pretty good. 0 Though she was almost too 1-100 out and be safe yourself. And She had just managed to shield weak to speak, she complained 101-200 help Xiaomei to calm down,” the her head with a wooden cutting 201-500 of pains in her hips, too. Zhang elder Zhang directed his son. board when the wall came down 501-1,000 Ming and Xiaoshuai lifted her 1,000-2,000 “Yanyan, the nephews and I will on her. The tallest part of the brick 0 5 10 20 on a board and gently placed 2,000-5,000 km try to find Mr. Wang and assess pile pinned her right leg. “Stay out, 5,000-10,000 Each colored square shows the direct the situation. The mobile service 10,000-20,000 20,000-50,000 economic loss expected for that 1 isn’t working so we will have to go 50,000-100000 square kilometer scope / grid, and the in person. Hurry, a lot of people 100,000-157,000 darker the color, the heavier the loss. may need help. But her situation seems quite serious,” he said, gesturing toward Xiaomei. Mr. Wang was the new village leader. He lived in a very tall house at the other end of the village, with high brick walls that seemed enormous to Xiaomei. HOMECOMING

26 27 EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO STORY SCENARIO FINDINGS Casualties

landslides, fires and other secondary the 1568 approximately disasters caused by shaking. Due to IF M7 earthquake occurs in building damage alone, over 10, 000 the present day... (the estimated number is 10,690) people her in a wheelbarrow from the will be injured seriously enough to seek toolshed. Grandma groaned treatment at a hospital. Because the In Linwei and Huazhou districts more softly as Zhang Ming guided the number of seriously injured victims is than two thousand (the estimated wheelbarrow down the rough large, some may need to be sent to larger number is 2,138 ) fatalities are expected path. They were headed to the hospitals for treatment, as Grandma due to building damage and collapses of Zhang house, where the elder Zhao was in the story, and as occurred Zhang was organizing vulnerable buildings caused by shaking. in reality during the 2008 M8.0 the response. Additional deaths are expected due to Wenchuan earthquake.

A nephew had run by to give backup power Zhang Ming the report that systems the tall Wang house built by untrained builders had collapsed. volunteer search and rescue hospital’s walls were cracked, the building utility Sadly, there were no signs of life teams composed of villagers in power was out, and there was RECOMMEN- systems Hospitals from inside. Zhang Ming’s wife his village, which his father had no water. Nurses worked to lay a DATIONS Yan was making a quick survey formed. He took Xiaoshuai with continual stream of injured people of the damage. Fourteen houses him to support the search and in rows on the ground, while the hospital In urban Linwei’s newer hospitals, the equipment had completely collapsed, and rescue team, and told Xiaomei to few doctors rushed to treat those staff are not able to use some parts of at least twenty others were badly stay at the Zhang house and help they could. The driver ran to get a the buildings, and some facilities cannot Protecting hospitals’ damaged. Though most people, Grandma Zhang with whatever nurse, and brought her back to the damage to provide certain important services. backup power, water and and almost all the children, interior walls she needed done. Zhang Ming vehicle. “Don’t bother unloading Backup power systems, building communications systems had been outside when the handed Xiaoshuai a first aid kit. them,” she said after a brief utility systems, and equipment are not against earthquake earthquake struck, so far at least “Though it’s not safe for you to examination. “They are all too damage; anchoring major damage to working because they are not seismically twenty people were missing and help us search, you can help our badly injured for us to help here. ceilings equipment; and bracing protected. Damage to interior walls and likely trapped in rubble. Smoke team with simple first aid, and Take them down to Hospital No. 1 fire protection piping and rose from a fire in a nearby ceilings, as well as toppled furniture, architectural features running messages back here,” he in Weinan city. Hurry. They might toppled village. “I don’t know how they creates significant disruption, though like suspended ceilings said. “Yes, sir, we learned about not survive.” Just then, another furniture will put it out,” the elder Zhang first aid in school. I’ll do my best,” car pulled in. “Why are you back? the buildings’ structural system is not can reduce damage that had said. “The brick water towers Xiaoshuai replied, standing up Didn’t I tell you to take them to damaged. At the Number 2 hospital, the often keeps hospitals from have fallen, so there’s no water. very straight. Weinan city?” the nurse shouted at electric grid and backup power systems functioning after strong Everyone please be careful not to the thin young man driving. “There both fail, and operating suites cannot earthquakes. start a fire here.” was a landslide and the road to be used. Rural hospitals, especially Elder Zhang sent off Grandma the city is just gone. We can’t get older ones like the one in the story, are and two other badly injured The local healthcare system through,” he replied tersely. “We’ll more badly damaged. Most of them are Once Grandma was at the Zhang people in a vehicle to the nearest should use this scenario as have to wait here for help.” house where the other injured township-level hospital, a not built to be earthquake resistant. a starting point to identify people were brought, Zhang 20-minute drive along the flat top A number of patients need to be the risk earthquakes pose HOMECOMING Ming joined one of the three small of the Weinan tableland. When transferred out of the area. to their systems, and they arrived, everyone, including prepare their own detailed the patients, was outside. The internal loss estimates and scenarios. 28 29 EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO FINDINGS SCENARIO FINDINGS

During the first days, or even weeks, after Housing Impacts the scenario earthquake, most of these displaced people have to shelter in tents or camps provided by various rescue and Residential buildings in Linwei and Huazhou relief teams and local governments. A Distribution of earthquake victims needing small number of them might go outside FIG. 9 temporary shelter the 1568 approximately to live with relatives, as Zhao Juan, IF M7 earthquake occurs Grandma Zhao Mei’s sister does in the N in the present day... Linwei and Urban parts of story. After one month or so, many of Rural parts of Huazhou districts: the two districts: these people are moved into the so-called 2 the two districts: 62.07 million m 35.73 million m2 26.34 million m2 “prefabricated board houses” ( 活动板房 ), houses (residential (51,534 individual rural houses which is similar to what happened on very buildings) in total buildings) large scale following the 2008 Wenchuan Linwei District ESTIMATE ESTIMATE ESTIMATE earthquake. They need to live in these provisional houses for months to years, depending on the progress of repair or Collapses Collapses Collapses reconstruction of their permanent houses. In the story described here, Jianguo’s 2 2 Huazhou District In both rural and urban Around 1.37 million m Around 1.57 million m family may be provided with a temporary districts, more than 2.94 houses collapse. Percentage collapse, percentage of prefabricated board house, or might stay million m2 houses collapse. of the total area of houses the total area of houses in in a temporary shelter. Percentage of the total area in urban parts: rural parts: of all houses: 3.8% 6.0% 4.7% RECOMMEN- isoseismal line The total Houses unsafe to live in DATIONS Houses unsafe to live in victim (person) housing loss is Houses unsafe to live in 0 2 Approximately 13.60 million About 7.22 million m are 200 0 5 10 20 2 2 km 38.3% Over 20.82 million m m houses are too badly too badly damaged to use, 500 are unsafe to live in damaged to use, percentage percentage of the total area 1,000 Each colored square shows the Making housing 2,000 number of people expected to require (approximately equals the of the total of area of of houses in rural parts: 5,000 earthquake-resistant now, temporary shelter for that 1 square sum of severely damaged houses in urban parts: 10,000 kilometer grid, and the darker the by strengthening older and half moderately 10,396 color, the more people. damaged houses), 38.1% buildings or by replacing 27.4% them with locally acceptable percentage of the total area and earthquake-resistant of all houses: Population that lost Population that lost new buildings, will reduce their houses their houses 33.6% the number of people who 220,000 people lose their Around 260,000 rural people lose their family home in a Population that lost their houses and need temporary need temporary shelters, future earthquake. houses shelters, percentage of percentage of the total Around 480,000 people the total urban population: rural population: lose their houses and The rural population in Linwei need temporary shelters, 41.9% 33.9% and Huazhou districts is more percentage of the total vulnerable than the urban population in the two

HOMECOMING Notes: population, due to having districts: 1. Area of houses unsafe to live in approximately equals the sum area of severely damaged and half moderately damaged houses; fewer economic resources and 2. Population that lost their houses can be estimated with the following 36.8% ③ a greater proportion of elderly formula Population that lost their houses = (area of collapsed houses + area of houses unsafe to live in) / per capita living area - deaths people and young children. 30 31 3 Yifan Yuan (Editor in chief). 2007. Training material / textbook on China’s national standard ‘Direct loss assessment of earthquake disaster (GB/T 18208.4–2005)’. Beijing: Seismological Press. EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO STORY SCENARIO FINDINGS Communications

western part of Weinan covered Damage to communications in angry red and orange. “This is infrastructure RECOMMEN- Rushing Home – Jianguo the shaking intensity map from the DATIONS Earthquake Administration. Your TIME Saturday 15:30 Three telecommunications companies home may be badly affected.” He PLACE A construction jobsite for a provide services in Weinan, using a new skyscraper in Shanghai pressed a set of keys to a company network of towers, repeaters, buildings truck and some cash for gas into with equipment, fiber optic lines, and Planning ahead for how Jianguo’s hand. “Go now. Take Across the sprawling jobsite, between Weinan and Xi’an. more. The ground shaking damages to obtain and provide Zhou and Ma with you. Maybe you workers stopped, looked up Rescue operations are underway. buildings and unprotected equipment. accurate and timely can arrive before they close the information to the relevant from their tasks, and put down Though we do not know the full Landslides and liquefaction damage road. The military keeps everyone authorities and the public, their tools. On each floor of the scale of the damage yet, media some towers, putting them out of but relief vehicles out, but if you skyscraper where a crew worked, reports so far are showing in the event that mobile are local they may let you through. service. Some other towers on buildings the foreman called a halt and told extensive damage in Weinan and communications are We will send others that live a little within Weinan are also damaged and disrupted or overloaded workers to assemble outside in the some damage in Xi’an. Those of further from the epicenter by train.” out of service. after an earthquake, is an yard far below. Executive Director you who are from the affected Jianguo, Zhou and Ma started the essential preparedness Liu had called an urgent meeting. areas should try to contact your 14 hour drive on interstate G40 – step. For example, equip Jianguo and his colleagues families immediately. In addition, Restoration the straight-arrow route to Xi’an – key agencies, lifeline service descended in the construction lift. I am announcing that Huangpu direct from the jobsite. They rotated providers, high-occupancy No one spoke. Trying to distract Building Construction will grant As soon as the shaking stops, people the driving duties, obsessed buildings, and similar himself from the overwhelming leave of up to ten days to affected call their loved ones, overloading the over the tiniest bits of news from important locations with sense of foreboding, Jianguo took workers, starting immediately. mobile networks almost immediately. WeChat, and tried to call and backup communications his phone from his pocket where it Workers from Weinan or Xi’an, In the story, the Zhao’s home village such as satellite phones. message their families. No one sat switched off all day, in keeping please assemble in the trailer loses mobile service. Parents separated got through to relatives in Xi’an for with jobsite policy. A moment later, for further instructions. All others from their children, like Haiyan and almost three hours due to system he wished he hadn’t. His WeChat please return to work. Thank you.” Jianguo, call and message repeatedly, Local communication overload, and they couldn’t reach feed lit up. Earthquake. Xi’an. system operators should Weinan at all. Despite the fatigue, but get no answers. Damage. Ominously, there were use this scenario as a In the trailer, foreman Guo pulled their thoughts raced, making it no messages from his wife or starting point to identify Jianguo aside and showed him impossible to sleep. Without power from the grid, towers mother. Everyone packed into the the risk earthquakes pose a map on his phone with the small open ground at the front of that remain usable are working on to their systems, and the site, around the back of a truck battery backup power. But this backup prepare their own detailed where Mr. Liu was standing. emergency power runs out after several internal loss estimates and hours, in some cases before grid power scenarios. returns. In the areas of strongest “I called this meeting today to put shaking, the mobile networks start to your mind at ease, during this time of great difficulty for Weinan,” be restored in about 1 to 2 days using Mr. Liu began slowly. Murmurs emergency generators. Other mobile rose immediately in the crowd equipment like cells on wheels are used of workers. “Which is home to to restore the communications network. a number of you,” he continued

HOMECOMING after most of the workers were quiet again, “that our company will stand strong together.” He paused. “Over an hour ago, a 32 major earthquake occurred 33 EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO STORY SCENARIO FINDINGS Electrical Power equipment damaged

messaged back. It took all her transformers Damage to electrical willpower not to call, but she knew toppled power infrastructure Rushing Home – Haiyan she should message, to help keep the network from getting Weinan’s electric power supply comes TIME Saturday 16:30 brittle ceramic overloaded again. PLACE Around a restaurant in isolators cracked from the national grid. Transmission South Xi’an lines crisscrossing the Wei River She handed the phone back with a valley send power to the local network power outages Haiyan and her three coworkers Center: Linwei and Huazhou quick thank you and flagged down substations. Strong shaking damages stared up at the apartment districts likely to be hardest hit...,” a motorcycle taxi. “Please. My equipment, topples unsecured building where they share a tiny blared the headlines. Haiyan took kids are in Linwei and I can’t reach transformers, and cracks brittle ceramic RECOMMEN- hospitals, water flat on the third floor. “Do you the stairs two at a time. DATIONS them. Can you take me?” Haiyan pumps affected isolators in the substations. think it’s safe to go up?” Haiyan asked, blinking back tears. “Yeah, asked. “I don’t see any cracks if you buy the petrol,” he offered. With her small bag sitting beside Facilities lose the Restoration anywhere, do you?” her friend Haiyan did a quick mental calcula- her on the curb, Haiyan checked ability to function responded. “No. I’m going,” said tion, thankful to be pulled back, her phone again. Still no signal. The power goes out, and Linwei and Seismically protecting Haiyan. “I’ve got to get my bag by the exercise, from the brink of This was the downside of a cheap Huazhou go dark. Typical outages last electrical equipment in in case I need to go home. I’ll crying in front of a stranger. That substations, especially phone plan, she thought. Seeing hours to a few days, depending on the come right back down. If I could was probably a quarter of the those supplying power her expression, her friend handed location. Power outages affect hospitals, just call or find out anything...” her usual price. Even at a time like to hospitals, fire stations, over her phone. Her family living voice trailed off. “We don’t even this, she had to watch expenses. water pumps, industrial plants, and water system facilities and to the west of Xi’an was fine. know how big it was or where it Paying for her father in-law’s businesses. Strongly shaken areas, other important facilities, Haiyan gave up after four tries was. The network is jammed. I’m medical treatments had put them such as the Zhao family’s village in the will help to prevent to Grandma’s phone and three sure they’re fine,” the other friend deep into debt. But she smiled Weinan tableland, have longer outages interruptions in function at to her brother-in-law Jianjun, said soothingly. “Wait, I just got every time she thought of him due to greater damage from shaking and these facilities. All essential and messaged Jianguo that she signal!” cried the first friend. They sitting with Xiaoshuai and then facilities should have was okay. “On my way. There ground failure. Facilities without backup all crowded around her phone Xiaomei in the chair, telling them seismically protected power in 10 hours” was the immediate generators and adequate fuel lose the as she pulled up the news feed. backup systems that are stories. Or letting them name all ability to function. Power is restored in response. “Can’t reach anyone. regularly tested. “Major earthquake rocks Weinan... of the trees in the orchard – even No signal yet on my phone. most areas within two days, and almost Damage reported from Xi’an... if the names were ridiculous – and Going home. See you there,” she everywhere within a week. China Earthquake Networks giving them nightly “updates” over Local electrical systems dinner on which trees had done operators should use this what, to howls of delight. Those scenario as a starting treatments had kept him alive point to identify the risk for eight years, long enough to earthquakes pose to their know his grandchildren, to laugh systems, and prepare their with them and to love them. Even own detailed internal loss though his passing was two long estimates and scenarios. years ago now, Xiaoshuai and Xiaomei would sit in the courtyard, HOMECOMING

34 35 EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO STORY SCENARIO FINDINGS Landslides

in-law are up there and I can’t reach

them. I’ve called and called. Please.” N

Linwei Weinan City The soldier was unmoved by Haiyan’s Lintong pleading. “I understand, but cannot help, ma’am. It’s not safe to drive it at night. The road has cracks everywhere and parts of walls and power lines Huazhou fell down into it. And there are some unstable sections. We aren’t even Youhe Reservoir permitted to drive it after dark.” Just Linghe Reservoir

then, the ground began to shake. Jianyu Reservoir “Aftershock!” shouted the soldier. Probability of landslide during scenario earthquake “Everyone down!” It was a small one, < 1% but once it was over, the driver got up 1-2% laughing and telling each other 2-5% and looked hard at Haiyan. “We have Lantian his stories, still remembering 5-10% The driver knew another route, to go back to Xi’an tonight. If I’m feeling 10-50% every detail. It was worth it, all of it. further to the south and longer. lucky, we can try again tomorrow.” boundary of districts Haiyan held on tight to the driver’s reservoir “We can try it,” he said, “but I doubt shoulder as he sped off. we’ll get through. It’s going to be At the first opportunity – a long FIG. Probability of landslides with area greater than 100 m2 during the scenario earthquake dark soon.” Haiyan tried her phone 10 stoplight in Xi’an – Haiyan messaged They threaded slowly through the again. Signal! But there was no Jianguo about the change of plans. heavy traffic in south Xi’an. The response from Grandma’s basic “Please call me” was the response. Further east along the Huashan power outage had darkened the phone which was in the empty, the 1568 approximately “Soon” she tapped back, as the mountain front, smaller rock slides and traffic signals, bringing traffic to shattered house, untouched from IF M7 earthquake occurs in light changed. After several hours rockfalls send rocks down onto railway a near-standstill. “Everyone else where it fell during the earthquake. the present day... struggling back to Xi’an, Haiyan will be on the back roads with She stifled a near-overwhelming tracks, fields, and mountain roads. Up wearily got off the back of the bike in us. A landslide came down onto urge to get on WeChat as she to 700 additional smaller landslides of front of her apartment. “Thanks for 3 the expressway. And they have bounced along on the back of the Earthquake shaking triggers about one hundred to one million m occur in trying so hard to help me get home to inspect the bridges. They’re motorbike, fearful of dropping her 100 to 150 landslides in the Weinan the steep mountain areas south and east today. Could you take me again early not letting anyone on,” the driver phone. After another two hours tableland, concentrated along the of Weinan city. People in villages and tomorrow morning? Please?” asked shouted over his shoulder. “Okay,” of driving slowly past damaged tableland edges and in the incised traveling on the road and rail segments Haiyan, a pleading note in her voice. Haiyan shouted back. Good, she buildings and avoiding debris in are caught in landslides, and some are “Sure! Message me the time you want valleys within the tableland, particularly thought. No tolls. Finally outside the road, a barricade appeared injured or killed. In subsequent months to go … and stay safe tonight.” the in the northern and western parts. In an of Xi’an, they started to see cracks in the motorcycle’s headlight. driver replied. She saw a light on her instant, the deceptively stable-looking and years, landslide debris will wash in buildings, and people sitting “Can you please let us pass?” the apartment and went up. The power loess – a wind-deposited soil – loses its into streams, creating debris flows, outside. They made it as far as a driver enquired. “She lives up on was back on, and it seemed almost strength, rushing down into the roads, choking channels with sediment Yuanshang, where they came to top of the tableland and needs everyone decided it was safe enough and increasing the local flood hazard. a makeshift checkpoint. A soldier to get home to her children,” he the expressway, rail lines, and the You to go inside for the night. Good thing, turned them back. “The road is said, gesturing behind him at He reservoir. Landslides rupture gas Heavy rains trigger further landsliding because it was starting to rain. She lines, slice through roads and carry away on weakened hillsides.

HOMECOMING completely buried by landslides Haiyan. “This road is closed. I dropped her bag on the apartment up ahead. We don’t know when have orders not to let any civilians buildings in local villages. floor, plugged in her phone, and we can reopen it. I’m sorry.” through, especially at night.” the called Jianguo. soldier replied. “Please, sir,” Haiyan

36 begged, “my children and mother- 37 EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO STORY SCENARIO FINDINGS Liquefaction

here in Weinan in 1556,” he had When water-saturated sandy soils are In the scenario, as a result of Waiting for Morning to Come said. “There was a smaller but still shaken by an earthquake, a phenomenon liquefaction, roadbeds settle and some strong one in 1568,” he had said. called liquefaction causes the soil to lose buildings sink or tilt. Water and gas “Get ready.” TIME 05:30 the morning after its strength and flow as a thick fluid. In pipes break. Canals and irrigation the earthquake the scenario earthquake, soils liquefy channels develop cracks and their banks PLACE South of Xi’an Had they listened? No, not really. across strongly shaken parts of the Wei slump. In fields and vineyards, liquefied And they had not done anything to River Basin, as occurred in 1568 and sand bubbles up through sand boils, Haiyan rose before dawn to meet on a transport like that, headed strengthen the old house, despite other past earthquakes. Liquefaction can which are miniature sand “volcanoes.” Jianguo at a petrol station beside for the areas hit by the 2008 Jianjun telling them it could be cause major damage, as occurred in the These appear in fields near Zhou and the G40 expressway southeast Wenchuan earthquake, Haiyan done inexpensively. There was 2018 Palu, Indonesia earthquake. Ma’s villages in north Linwei in the of Xi’an that they agreed on the remembered. Jianjun’s unit hiked always something more urgent. story. Along the Wei River, thin layers night before. This was supposed two days into Beichuan county But they would listen now, Haiyan of soil liquefy, and large areas of soil to cost a couple more liters of where there was exceptional resolved. Actually, she was quite above them slide slowly toward the river, petrol for the motorcycle taxi man, devastation. Years later, when sorry now that they had not taken a process known as lateral spreading. but he was so relieved to avoid a he was able to talk about it, he Jianjun’s advice seriously before Floodwalls and embankments are harrowing ride up the tableland would tell earthquake stories. He the earthquake. that he didn’t charge her. “Hope told Xiaoshuai and Xiaomei “hero damaged in several locations, causing your kids are okay,” he said gruffly, stories” about the people his unit significant damage to flood protection giving Haiyan a sympathetic saved, but after the children were A small truck in the long line systems for Linwei district. There will departing wave after leaving her safely asleep he told Jianguo and parted from the stream and pulled be only a short time to repair the flood off at the station. In a moment, at the edge of the windswept Haiyan that there were many that protection system before the rainy Jianguo was there. Neither spoke station, gray in the predawn air. didn’t make it. His words came season begins in May. “Thank you, thank you so much! rushing back to Haiyan’s mind. for a long minute. “Let’s go home,” Please take care of yourself. “The best thing is to make your he finally said. He refueled the Bye-Bye,” Haiyan responded with house earthquake-resistant,” he truck while his colleagues got out gratitude. She sat on her bag to had said. “The army can’t help if and waited for their ride. Zhou’s RECOMMEN- FIG. Liquefaction caused by the 2011 M5.8 Yingjiang earthquake in brother was coming to take them 11 DATIONS wait and watch the expressway, your house falls down and kills Yunnan province, China, as evidenced by sand boils phone in hand. She had a bigger you,” he had said. “Those people, to their village in north Linwei, just bag this time, filled with water especially in rural areas, were across the Wei River. It would be bottles, packs of snacks, a few almost totally unprepared,” he a long journey because they had clothes, and the two blankets she had said. “The worst earthquake to go around to the east and then Local agencies responsible could stuff inside. in China’s entire history happened north to avoid closed-off bridges for land resources and geo-hazards should use this scenario as a On the G40, a seemingly unending starting point to identify line of heavy transports streamed earthquake-induced risks past, bearing soldiers and relief in the area, including supplies bound for the earthquake landslides, liquefaction, zone. Over ten years ago, ground fissures, etc., and Jianguo’s younger brother was prepare more detailed loss and impact estimates HOMECOMING and scenarios, to further FIG. Liquefaction caused by the 2003 M6.8 Bachu-Jiashi earthquake, 12 improve associated western area of Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, China geo-hazard prevention and mitigation work. 38 39 EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO STORY SCENARIO FINDINGS Gas and Fuel

across or near the Weihe River and my mother are over there. Pipelines may break and leak with pine trees after the gas line was in the areas most affected by We came as quickly as we could.” installed. The lack of water supply limits the earthquake. Massive cracks “You live in the tableland?” The Natural gas is brought to Weinan by the ability to extinguish fires, as occurs had opened as the land near the soldier asked, gesturing toward pipeline. In areas of severe ground in the neighboring village in the story. river banks slid toward the river, the north. “Yes,” they replied in movement, the pipelines may break damaging the roads up to the unison. “Drive slowly. Some small and leak, including the steel pipe Limited local storage bridges. The G30 expressway had rocks might still be in the road transmission line coming from the been closed just east of Xi’an so from last night’s aftershocks. north. It crosses areas that are likely that engineers could inspect the There is a lot of damage on the Fuel is brought by truck to Weinan. to have liquefaction and large lateral Bahe bridge. Zhou’s and Ma’s other side. Watch out for downed Petrol stations have limited local storage spreads (in which the ground slides families had been outside and power lines and debris in the capacity and need open roads to receive were okay, but there was damage road,” the soldier warned as he gradually toward the river and develops more supply. Road closures affect to the houses, and the ground waved them through. large fissures). Natural gas is delivered deliveries to stations until roads reopen. had settled unevenly in places. to homes in polyethylene pipes, which There was no water service, and generally resist earthquake forces well the fields had strange little cones and remain undamaged, except in a few of sand all over that looked like Ma and Pa are Back! locations with very large ground failures. RECOMMEN- miniature volcanoes. I wonder if In the Weinan tableland, a landslide that DATIONS we’ll see any of those, thought TIME 10:50 the day after the earthquake moves a long distance ruptures a 300mm Haiyan, as she looked at a photo PLACE Xingfu Village, atop the Weinan gas line. Leaking gas ignites and causes tableland in Linwei District of them from Zhou’s WeChat. a fire in the area, which was revegetated Jianguo wished Zhou and Ma well, and drove back along the After four long hours, the truck okay, Haiyan. Maybe they’re at the Local gas and fuel supply G40 eastward, until he reached rolled to a stop in the lane outside Wang or Zhang house,” Jianguo agencies should use this the junction for the route to the their house, and Haiyan jumped said slowly. “Let’s go.” scenario as a starting tableland from the south. The road out. With Jianguo behind her, point to prepare their own seemed okay and there was less she ran through the gate into the detailed internal scenarios, As they pulled up to the hive of damage to buildings than Haiyan courtyard. “Xiaoshuai! Xiaomei! in which earthquake activity that was the Zhang house, had seen on the north side the Ma! We’re here!” she shouted. induced gas leakage, fires, Haiyan was out of the truck before and explosions, and their previous day. Everything was completely it stopped moving. “They should possible impacts, should be still. She dashed around to the have information,” she called to paid particular attention. back of the house, and saw the Past Houzhen on the south side Jianguo as she went. Ten minutes Good prevention, mitigation gaping hole in the back corner. of the hills, they saw a checkpoint later, they were back in the truck and preparedness measures It appeared there had been a ahead. Haiyan’s countenance again, this time headed for the should be taken accordingly. rescue of some sort – bricks were dropped. Jianguo put his hand on home of Jianguo’s elderly uncle. piled in odd spots and boards of hers. “I’ll talk us through,” he said, Now that the military was there, different lengths and sizes were trying to appear more confident the elder Mr. Zhang didn’t need lying about. That meant someone than he felt. Haiyan had told him the truck, or Jianguo, for the had been underneath all those about her lack of success with rescue and relief effort, though bricks. Haiyan couldn’t breathe for checkpoints the day before. He Jianguo had offered. a moment. Jianguo held her by

HOMECOMING eased to a stop and handed their both shoulders. “They are going ID cards to the soldier. “Our kids to be okay. They are going to be

40 41 EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO STORY SCENARIO FINDINGS Water System

Most important, the elder RECOMMEN- Mr. Zhang told them Xiaoshuai DATIONS and Xiaomei were safe. The VIII pipeline children had been sent to stay last night with their great-uncle after Grandma was taken to the North Water Treatment Plant IX First Water Treatment Assessing water systems for nearest township-level hospital. Plant in Hi-tech earthquake vulnerabilities, Mr. Zhang also told them that he East Water Treatment Plant Linwei and then strengthening did not have further information weaknesses, can prevent about Grandma. But she was X Huazhou significant disruption to badly injured, especially one of Weinan’s essential services her legs, so he thought she may Ling He Reservoir South Water Treatment Plant and daily life. Brick water have been transferred out to a You He Reservoir towers that can collapse larger hospital where she could area using brick water towers and borewells for water supply should be replaced get better care. The news of her Jian Yu Reservoir with municipal supply injury was a hard blow, but at connections, and then least the children were safe. Oh, water treatment plant ground rapture caused by 1568 earthquake removed. Chlorine tanks they were safe! The seemingly reservoir Weinan-Jingyang fault should be secured. Buildings pipeline other active faults unending hours of striving and not 0 5 10 15 20 and equipment should be intensities simulated for 1568 earthquake km knowing, and the five minutes of assessed and strengthened terror after seeing the back corner FIG. The outline of water supply system of Linwei district to resist damage from 13 of the house, those were all over shaking. The potential for now. Haiyan felt the tightness in landslide damage to key her chest loosen a bit. far enough away from this earthquake facilities, including the the 1568 approximately to escape damage. Soil failures damage You He reservoir and dam, in the dark, in all this, Jianguo IF M7 earthquake occurs in the canals and underground pipelines should be investigated Xiaomei heard the motor of a “You came! Both of you!” Xiaomei interjected, gesturing toward the present day... that bring water from the Yellow River and potential hazards truck and familiar voices. “Ma! squealed with glee as she ran to the jumbled debris that had properly addressed. to the new North water treatment plant, Pa!” she shouted. “Xiaoshuai, it’s her mother. Xiaoshuai was right been the neighbor’s gate. “Your Ma and Pa!” Both children shot behind her and ran straight to mother is very brave.” Xiaoshuai’s Damages to the water system leave some interrupting its supply. In the treatment out of the courtyard where they his father. “You came all the way eyes widened a bit. With a small local residents without water service for plants, buildings crack and equipment Local water services should had been playing. No one wanted from Shanghai!” he said. Though smile at the compliment, Haiyan hours to months, depending on their slides. Unanchored chlorine tanks use this scenario as a to be inside. In fact, they had all he probably shouldn’t have, he continued. “The roads from Xi’an location. Water supply for Linwei and roll from their cradles, break their starting point to identify spent the night outside together, blurted out, “I wish you were were blocked by landslides. The Huazhou districts comes from several lines, and release dangerous gas. In the risk earthquakes pose under a large sheet that Jianguo’s here yesterday to help rescue soldiers turned us back twice local reservoirs, the Yellow River, rural areas, brick water towers located to their systems, and uncle and Xiaoshuai had rigged people. Mr. Zhang and I had to when I tried two shorter routes and groundwater. Some facilities lose above borewells suffer damage and prepare their own detailed home. The motorcycle taxi driver internal loss estimates up to some poles to keep off the take a huge pile of bricks off of pumping capacity due to power outages some collapse. Rural brick water tower rain. The great-uncle was very old, was careful, thankfully, and kept and scenarios. Grandma’s legs.” “My son is a caused by damage to the electrical damage concentrates in southwest but still gently scolded Xiaoshuai me safe. And today, your father little hero! And I wish I could have system. Landslides in the loess of the Linwei district. This area has the for not knowing how to tie all the helped, son,” Jianguo responded. and I had to come all the way from Weinan tableland damage the You He largest number of brick water towers, knots properly. Aftershocks woke “I came soon as I could, right the south. But now we’re here Reservoir, urban Linwei’s secondary and is hit by strong shaking. The brick HOMECOMING them every so often. from the jobsite. It takes 14 hours together, and more important, water supply. Fault rupture damages the water tower in the Zhao’s home village to drive all that way.” “I tried to you both are safe,” she said, come all yesterday afternoon squeezing both of their shoulders. irrigation channel from Linghe reservoir. collapses in the shaking. Workers and evening,” said Haiyan. “And now we're going to all go The primary Jian Yu reservoir is located labor around the clock to restore water 42 “On the back of a motorcycle, together and see Grandma.” service to affected areas. 43 EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO FINDINGS SCENARIO FINDINGS Highways, Roads and Bridges

Liquefiable soils G108 Near the Wei River and in the Wei North S107 Area, soil failure causes road closures. Linwei G5 Because the Wei River has saturated, G210 G30 Weihe River highly liquefiable soils (which flow like a G310 G310 fluid during shaking), nearly all bridges that cross it have minor to significant

G30 damage from soil failures affecting the Huazhou G108 abutments and some supporting piers.

S107 The G5 and G210 expressways are also

Wei Yu Express slightly damaged from liquefaction at S108 the Wei River crossing. Slumping and assess S107 lateral spreading (when the ground ground rapture caused G40 by 1568 earthquake atop thin layers of liquefied soil moves Weinan-Jingyang fault mitigate Xi’an towards the river banks) affect roads G40 other active faults G70 S107 study area atop flood control embankments in some places. Roads in areas of liquefaction or RECOMMEN- G312 0 5 10 15 20 DATIONS km lateral spreading crack and settle. plan FIG. Transportation network serving Linwei and Huazhou districts 14 Restoration

Landslides Assessing the potential the 1568 approximately The government closes some roads M7 earthquake occurs in impacts of liquefaction, IF Landslides along the steep margins to regular traffic to ensure that the present day... landslides, fault rupture, of the Weinan tableland extend into relief vehicles have priority access. and other types of ground the G30 and G310 expressways that Immediately after the earthquake, failure; determining how run along its base. Some local roads in Weinan’s primary access is from the to mitigate them; and Fault rupture the tableland are damaged or blocked east on the G30 and G310, rather than planning ahead for impacts by landslides. In the story, landslides direct from Xi’an. After close inspection to the transportation system Damage to roads and bridges makes key Local transportation and adding some support bracing as will reduce disruptions to prevent Grandma Zhao and other agencies should use this routes impassible. The fault that caused critical transportation links badly injured people from reaching the needed, some of the Wei River bridges scenario as a starting the earthquake breaks across all lanes of in a major earthquake’s hospital in Weinan, forcing them to with undamaged decks are reopened. point to identify the risk the east-west G30 and G310 expressways aftermath, when responders Within a few days many bridges reopen, earthquakes pose to their connecting Weinan to Xi’an and other travel south on local roads to reach a will need roads to help allowing improved access across the Wei systems, and prepare their local roads. There is more than a half hospital in Xi’an. Blocked roads leave disaster victims. River. Roads with smaller cracks from own detailed internal loss meter “step” that most vehicles can’t village head Mr. Zhang to manage embankment settlement and liquefaction estimates and scenarios. cross. The fault rupture also damages the the relief operations without outside have basic repairs within a few days, north-south G5 and G210 expressways, assistance until the second day. allowing traffic to pass at slow speeds. but there is less displacement than on HOMECOMING Some roads and bridges damaged by the G30 and G310. severe lateral spreading take months to years to restore or reconstruct.

44 45 46 HOMECOMING had happened to the house. The The house. the to happened had what seeing after especially that, for thankful so was She survived. all had they when angry be to difficult was to. it But, forward looking start herself let just had she that time family precious the away taken had earthquake the that angry was she a moment now. For paid 10 days him giving was company the if floor, top the finishing after off week the get And doubted she would Jianguo had happened, Haiyan realized. what with deal to just together time that of bit every need would they like looked It us,”of said. he care take will They worry. to not me told Guo “Foreman areas. nearby and Weinan from workers the to provided had company his leave 10days the about her told had up, Jianguo drive the On minute. another for children her from apart be to want didn't Haiyan them, without easier be would hospital the to a trip Though EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO STORY the Hospital Looking for Grandma in

PLACE TIME

mostly, or soon would be once once be would soon or mostly, now, together was family her all, of best And home.) them sending before yesterday, said had Mai Ms. them,” fix we until in come will one no Iguess but small, (“They’re walls. the in cracks some repair to closed was restaurant The wasn’t. she if now, even paid getting was Jianguo And someone. lost all had others three and family Wang on the Weinan tableland Weinan the on hospital township-level A local 12:00 the day after the earthquake the after day 12:00 the water because the brick water water brick the because water drinking for search to girls other the Yan and Zhang with going Xiaomei injured. the for aid first simple with helping and team, rescue and search Ming’s Zhang for “runner” the being Xiaoshuai wheelbarrow. the in house Zhang the to her taking and Grandma Rescuing dust. the All hospital. township-level the to drive the on children the of out poured Details for. hope to much too almost was way. that But, that it keep to a way find could they maybe that, after And Grandma. with were they We don’t have information yet on on yet information have We don’t communications. relief and rescue the all to due over-loaded almost also are they because cations, communi essential send only can we but military, the on relying are we so service, of out still is tower mobile “Our explained. officer to,” information went the they hospital which on yet information have don’t we Xi’an; but to out it made have must they But, details. for ask to them delaying without immediately on them sent there soldier the so condition, serious avery in were patients the point By that Houzhen. at checkpoint the passed they know we and south, the to road the took “They evening. yesterday late convoy asmall in out driven were patients injured seriously other and Grandma that Jianguo informed officer tion informa An staff. local exhausted the relieve to earlier hours a few arrived had provinces other from nurses and doctors and ground, the on lying patients of rows the replaced Tents had before. day the from different very was hospital the at scene the arrived, family his and Jianguo When come. would help outside when wondering everyone morning, this early came soldiers first the Until evening. yesterday food some home her at gathered everyone granddaughters managing to give her and Zhang Grandma dry. were taps the and down fell tower - - their names. Two of the women women Two the of names. their about confusion some was there yesterday, chaos the In speak. to weak too were them of Some man. elderly an and women elderly five Hospital, Min Wei to Xi’an to taken were injuries serious very with patients “Six uncomfortably. them at down looked and hands his folded officer The nodded. it.” got Jianguo Wejust a report. gave and checkpoint Houzhen quietly. “The drivers reached the said news,” he some have “I chair. nearby to a gestured officer over, the him Beckoning desk. makeshift his to return officer information the saw Jianguo 15 minutes, long avery After you.” for enquiry an make can we soon, drivers the from hear don’t we If long. so taking is what be must That it. manage could they if back way the on supplies and food some bring to drivers the asked here staff the left, they to. Before went they hospital which for Xi’an. for bound truck, the in back was family the and Mr. of by way Zhang, uncle his to message a send to officer tion Haiyan, Jianguo asked the informa the asked Jianguo Haiyan, with conferring quickly After dark.” after it drive civilians any letting aren’t they and dangerous, still is road The late. too get will it drivers, the for wait now. you go If should today, you Xi’an to go to want you If survivors. the of one was mother your that hopes in Hospital Min Wei to go or information, further get to arrive to drivers the for hours four wait options: two You have service. mobile without photos his get can't we But, transport. to ready them got nurses the while phone his with patients six the of each of a photo took “A driver Jianguo. to options the explained officer news.” The better have to not I’m sorry ones. which sure completely not are we way, but the on injuries their of died EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO STORY - 47 48 HOMECOMING with strict instructions not to move. instructions strict with desk, information the of earshot of out safely sign, lot by aparking and Xiaoshuai Xiaomei Haiyan left hear, would she what knowing Not truck. the park to aplace for looked he while out them let just crowded that had Jianguo finally so were hospital the around streets The behind. following was who Xiaoshuai, at back shouted she up!” “Keep hospital. the of front the outside up set desk tion crowd informa towardthe the through wove her, Haiyan behind hand by the Xiaomei atired Pulling EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO STORY

PLACE TIME

Wei Min Hospital in Xi’an Xi’an in Hospital Min Wei the earthquake after 18:30 day the - in-law.” mother- your is them of one I hope up. you take to avolunteer get I’ll names. their about uncertainty some is there says it file the In Trauma. in is one and ICU the in are group this from “Two women later. moments afew said she size.” “Okay,” that agroup for tion informa some be should “There replied. woman the again,” check me “Let knew. she as information much as providing quickly, explained trip,” Haiyan the survive Two didn’t names. some of unsure were They man. one women, five six badly injured elderly people, were There tableland. the on up Weinan, of District Linwei from night last “Yes, here?” brought was she sure you Are lists. other the or inpatient the either on here name that see Idon’t Mei. “Zhao hospital. the into her behind snaking by cords connected was which computer, her at stared woman young the furrowed, Brow name. Grandma’s gave she desk, the to it making Finally

-

propped on a pillow. Grandma! Grandma! apillow. on propped arm abruised other, the on and blankets, side one on back, father’s his see could Xiaoshuai doorway, the Through room. asmall to and ahall down them led She thoughts. Xiaoshuai’s into breaking way,” anurse, this called come please family, Mei’s “Zhao ICU. the in been not had Grandma And voices. their in tightness astrange had parents his Linwei, left they since Ever she’snow,” okay.” sure “We’re and Grandma see to going “We’re than, other anything him tell wouldn’t Pa Now, and Ma people. help could he least at Yesterday, more. some wait and truck, the in ride wait, was today done had he all seemed it okay. Frustratingly, be would Grandma that silently praying kept he as department, Trauma the outside corridor the in baseboard rubber the against toe his tapped Xiaoshuai miracle that the doctors had saved asmall was It healed. had hip and leg broken her once again walk to try and months three least at for stay would she where facility, arehabilitation to move would so, Grandma or week another In she prepared the transfer request. as Xiaoshuai to nurse the said heroes,” young her about all me telling been has Grandma “Your quake Story quake Uncle Jianjun’s New Earth

PLACE TIME From her bed, Grandma smiled. smiled. Grandma bed, her From brother. big her from praise this at glowed Xiaomei ourselves.” out Grandma gotten have couldn’t We house. else’s someone to gone already have might Ming Mr. fast, Zhang so run hadn’t she If help. back bring to one the was “And Xiaomei said. he grandma,” their for do would anybody what did just “I toes. his at looked and sheepishly Xiaoshuai smiled optimistic. cautiously were they surgeries, three after but leg, her

Wei Min Hospital in Xi’an earthquake the after week One - And the power was out then, so so then, out was power the And “There were other people digging. ago. days was that but safe, was he know would she so Jianjun with WeChat on her put they hospital, the in Grandma found Haiyan and Jianguo after Soon her. worry to wanting not quickly, added he Grandma,” out, them dig to have didn’t Uncle “But exclaimed. he 2008!” in like just rubble, the of out people dig to had They Linwei. urban in damage of lots was there that me telling was “He out. tumbling words wide, eyes said, working 18 hours a day,” Xiaoshuai He’s office. his leave can he and urgent so quite not are things when soon you see and come to plans he that says and rest, your disturb to want didn’t He again. together back city Weinan put to helping was he and yesterday phone the on him to talked “I himself. but anyone onto back focus the get to trying deflected, Xiaoshuai Grandma,” tell, to stories more even “And has he all.” after stories earthquake Jianjun’s Uncle your to listening were you seems “It beamed. she you,” of both of proud very “I’m EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO STORY 49 EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO STORY SCENARIO FINDINGS Railways

offset in the piers on either side of the the 1568 approximately fault. Ordinary tracks crossing the fault IF M7 earthquake occurs in must be re-graded and re-laid. the present day...

Landslides

Fault breaks Landslides along the front of the Weinan tableland bury tracks in several The rail system, which includes an locations between Weinan to Xi’an east-west freight line along the front and damage the railway tunnels in the of the tableland, and a high speed rail tableland. Isolated rockfalls along the line further out in the Wei River valley, mountain front in Huazhou district needs extensive repairs before trains cause precautionary closures of the can operate. The fault breaks across busy east-west rail line. Several bridges they had to get a generator to run Those stories would have to wait the corner of a slab. Lying flat both regular and high speed rail lines, are damaged. the lights at night so they could until Xiaoshuai and Xiaomei were on his stomach, Jianjun could taking them out of service. The high see,” Xiaoshuai continued. “He older. Drawing on his military see a small girl pinned beneath. speed rail’s elevated trackway requires said during the first day, they didn’t experience, Jianjun had quickly Working quickly together, they reconstruction to realign the tracks to have any water and couldn’t even recruited a small volunteer rescue used scaffolding poles from a accommodate the nearly 1 m of vertical call anybody about it because team from his office and set off nearby construction site to gently RECOMMEN- DATIONS their phones weren’t working, towards an area filled with older lift the nearly 450kg precast slab. so somebody had to go and find buildings shortly after the shaking “One, two, three, lift!” Two wide water and find generators and stopped. An ominous cloud of eyes blinked in the sunlight. A fuel. He said it was really tough. dust hung overhead. From hard shout went up. One life saved, Like before mobile phones.” “Wow,” experience in the 2008 Wenchuan many more to go. N The local railway said Xiaomei slowly. “And they’re earthquake, Jianjun knew department should use still clearing rubble out of the what that meant: buildings had this scenario as a starting The soldiers and professional Linwei streets. Even yesterday,” he said. collapsed. He quickly recruited point to identify the risk rescuers from the military, “That’s a very impressive report, men from the neighborhood and Weihe River earthquakes pose to their government, and civilian rescue Xiaoshuai,” Grandma replied. organized volunteer self-rescue systems, and prepare their teams arrived in Weinan quickly “Soon you’ll be telling some of your groups to pull as many people own detailed internal loss and saved many lives. Local own earthquake stories.” from the rubble as they could until estimates and scenarios. people, especially those with professional help arrived. They Huazhou relevant training, played impres- first encountered a collapsed So as not to worry the boy, Uncle sive roles, and as a result had three-story apartment. Its poorly Jianjun had not told Xiaoshuai been able to save even more joined precast concrete slab floors that he, as a veteran with experi- people, by acting immediately ground rapture caused had come apart. Muffled voices by 1568 earthquake ence saving trapped people in after the shaking stopped. came from below the pieces, Weinan-Jingyang fault the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, meaning people were still alive other active faults did in fact need to rescue people, high speed railway underneath. Holding up a hand Xi’an regular speed railway

HOMECOMING and played a prominent role. for quiet, Jianjun and his team study area

listened carefully to pinpoint the 0 5 10 15 20 sources of the sounds. A small km hand reached out from under FIG. Railway network relevant to Linwei and Huazhou districts 15 50 51 EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO STORY SCENARIO FINDINGS Rural Villages

to the system. In other areas, many the 1568 approximately villages still have wells that feed into Homemade Chicken Soup IF M7 earthquake occurs in brick water towers. These towers are the present day... buildings not reinforced for earthquakes and are TIME Two weeks after the earthquake collapsed highly vulnerable to damage. In strongly PLACE Wei Min Hospital in Xi’an shaken areas, many brick water towers people injured Condition at rural villages in collapse. The cost to support earthquake Zhao Juan, Grandma’s sister recovering very well. We were so few things in the kitchen and Linwei district relief and recovery for a typical badly who lived in the mountains of worried about you,” said Zhao living room fell down and broke. damaged village in Linwei district may rural Huazhou district, and her Juan to her sister. Grandma Such a mess! Luckily, no one was water pipes Rural villages in Linwei district bear be in the range of 7.38 billion RMB. daughter Ying stepped off the smiled and nodded, happy to hurt by them. But we cleaned damaged the brunt of the scenario earthquake The rural population has greater social bus a block from the hospital. see Juan after so much had all that up and now we’re okay.” damage. Some unreinforced brick vulnerability than the urban population. Now that the G30 expressway happened. “Auntie, we brought “Yes, my daughter cleaned up her houses and other buildings collapse, and the railways were open you some chicken soup from house and I have a place to stay road damaged Families are more likely to struggle and many more are unsafe. Damaged again, they were able to come home,” Ying added. “Thank you,” now. Some of the neighbors are financially, and many households consist buildings kill and injure people. over from Ying’s apartment in replied Grandma, “I’m sure it will in bad shape. Their houses had of elderly people and their “left behind” Many who survive must stay in urban Huazhou to see Grandma. help me to feel better. And how even more cracks than mine,” houses unsafe grandchildren, such as the fictional temporary emergency shelters or with Haiyan was waiting for them at are you? How is your house?” she Juan replied. Grandma took all Zhao family. This story describes family members. Near the Wei River, the hospital entrance. “I’m so continued. Juan looked up at the this in, a worried look on her face. impacts of the scenario earthquake on gas lines liquefaction and lateral spreading glad you could come all this way!” ceiling and sighed. “My mountain “I can see we’re worrying you, Mei,” one fictional rural village. Many villages damaged damage village water pipes, roads and exclaimed Haiyan, spotting them home has a lot of cracks now. Juan said, squeezing her hand. will experience similar damage and loss. across the parking lot and rushing Fortunately, I was outside when “We will be fine. Don’t worry about buildings. At the edges of Weinan over. “You look very healthy, the earthquake struck. I dare not us. Let me get you some soup,” water supply tableland, landslides damage roads, Auntie. And how are you, Ying?” “It live in it, so I am staying with Ying Juan said, as she opened the interrupted power, water and gas lines, isolating took a long time to arrive, and we for now,” she said, looking at her thermos and poured the fragrant rural people and causing great hardship. RECOMMEN- are very worried about Grandma. daughter. “Yes, my apartment liquid into a bowl. Grandma took Water supply becomes critical for DATIONS We had to come,” Ying replied. wasn’t damaged but the power a sip of soup. “Now let me tell you survival. North of the Wei River, most went out,” Ying added. “And a what happened to me.” villages are connected to the city water Led by a nurse, the women filed supply system and likely to have their into the still-bustling Trauma water supply interrupted by damage Strengthening or replacing ward, as Haiyan motioned to vulnerable buildings, the children to walk out into the including schools and hallway. “You look like you’re houses, and making rural water systems more robust, will help to prevent death and suffering of vulnerable rural people. HOMECOMING

52 53 EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO STORY EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO STORY

Building an Earthquake- Longing to Go Back

Resistant House TIME One month later to School TIME Three months later PLACE The village shelter, atop PLACE The village shelter, atop the Weinan tableland the Weinan tableland

“When can I go back to a real Xiaoshuai and Xiaomei were makes sense for our family. I don’t school, Ma? It’s been a whole not the only ones who had been think those shelters are meant month of being in those hot listening to Uncle Jianjun. Haiyan to last more than a few years.” port-a-cabins!” Xiaomei crossed needed no more convincing. “We “And what if another earthquake train first and then shared taxi or her arms and drew her mouth are NOT going to live in that happens in the future? Or a fire bus, to salvage what they could into a thin line. “Not yet, Xiaomei. kind of brick house again,” she or something? We should have a from the old house. “Not much we They’re building a new school,” told Jianguo. “What would have plan and one of those ‘go-bags’ can use for rebuilding,” frowned said Haiyan brightly. “Think how happened if the earthquake if we have to evacuate quickly,” Jianguo to Jianjun, as they set nice it will be. And when has my was a little stronger? Or at night Haiyan continued. “Yes, I agree,” down another load of old, soft daughter ever complained about when they were all inside? It’s just Jianguo responded. ”We could bricks on the pile that Haiyan going to school?” Xiaomei looked too risky.” “I agree. But we can’t all be better prepared, and take and the children were turning unconvinced. “But why? Can’t afford one of those apartments part in some of those training and into neat stacks. “These will they just patch the cracks like I’m building,” he sighed. Recently, response exercises that Jianjun make a nice path in someone’s Uncle Jianjun did for great-uncle’s foreman Guo had gotten him a is always telling us about. I’m not garden,” Haiyan admonished, house?” “No, Xiaomei.” Haiyan job with his cousin’s construction letting my younger brother be the ever enterprising. “I put them on turned back to the vegetables she company doing rebuilding work in only one who knows about all this Taobao. They’re a hundred years was chopping and placed her Weinan. “I’ll miss a good concrete anymore,” Jianguo added, smiling. old. Someone will want them.” hands on the counter, on either worker like you, but your family In another two weekends, the side of the cutting board. “They “Everyone wants you and your She turned from her vegeta- needs you more than I do right old house would be completely For the moment, the family was can’t.” “Why? Don’t they know classmates to be safe, so the bles and put her arms around now,” Guo told him. “Why don’t we cleared, and they could start crammed into Haiyan’s shared how to fix it? Principal Wei can government is building a new Xiaomei’s shoulders. “The new rebuild a good house ourselves?” building the new earthquake- apartment in Xi’an. Xiaoshuai and fix anything. One time when–” school.” school will be specially designed Haiyan asked. “You know how to resistant one. If they all worked Xiaomei’s school was on summer “No, it had too much damage just to be very earthquake-resistant. build things,” she continued, “and very hard and got a little help from break much earlier than usual to patch it,” Haiyan said quietly. It takes time to build back better. we can get a standard plan set Jianguo’s construction crew, they “But I liked my old school. I don’t due to the earthquake. Haiyan Let’s be patient.” and a grant from the Municipality, could finish the new house by the want a different one!” Xiaomei was working in the restaurant IF we agree to let them inspect time Grandma was ready to come protested, arms crossed. during the week, as many shifts and make sure it’s strong enough home. She still wasn’t walking, “Xiaomei, they will build back even as she could manage, and taking for earthquakes. We can do it.” which worried Jianguo, and faced better than the old one. All your Xiaoshuai and Xiaomei to the “Let’s think about it some more. months of painful rehabilitation. teachers and classmates will be nearby rehabilitation facility to see But I think we should try,” said But she was making progress. there, and everyone will be safer,” Grandma as often as she could. Jianguo, after a long pause. “I Haiyan replied soothingly. Jianguo stayed in a dormitory on just don’t see any other way that the construction site during the week. On the weekends, they HOMECOMING all went to their home village, by

54 55 EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO STORY SCENARIO FINDINGS Schools

Because of the way that buildings “I am not going back to Shanghai.” are economically designed for strong A Meal Together The siblings’ eyes grew wide. earthquakes (“to bend but not break”), Jianguo let this sink in for a moment. in the scenario some of these schools TIME Four months later in areas with strong shaking would be PLACE Xingfu village atop the “And,” he continued, watching Weinan tableland damaged, some to the extent that might his children’s faces grow brighter be more economical to replace them and brighter like small candles, afterward. In areas where the scenario “Here’s the last bowl, Jianguo,” Xiaomei. Xiaoshuai grunted in “your mother took a new job in earthquake shaking is violent and Grandma called from the kitchen. agreement from his bowl. Haiyan the Linwei government recovery He carried the steaming bowl of smiled warmly at Grandma, not above the level to which schools program, and doesn’t need to go Saozi mian and set it gently on the needing to say anything. were reinforced or designed, some to Xi’an anymore. She starts next lovely wooden table that Grandpa are expected to have severe enough week. Being together as a family made years ago. He had pulled is more important than anything, damage that they will need to After the second helping, Haiyan Grandpa’s table from the rubble, even gold. And we will all live here, be replaced. looked expectantly at Jianguo. and Haiyan lovingly cleaned it, together.” Haiyan drank in the He nodded. Knowing what was sanded it, and rubbed it with oil, wonder on her children’s faces. coming, Grandma allowed a smile before placing it in the center RECOMMEN- to slowly spread across her face. DATIONS of the dining room in their new Because earthquake “Xiaoshuai, Xiaomei. Your Ma house. Grandma followed Jianguo “All the time?” Xiaomei asked, damage is still expected, and I have something important from the kitchen, taking careful breathlessly. school officials should plan to tell you,” Jianguo announced. steps with her cane. This was how to manage damage Xiaoshuai and Xiaomei looked up their first meal together in their In the past 10 years, a to school buildings that from their bowls, expectantly. “Yes, all the time.” new home, and the first noodles number of schools in will close some schools Grandma had cooked for them Linwei and Huazhou for an extended period of since her injury. Xiaoshuai and districts were replaced by time. Older buildings that Xiaomei fidgeted in their seats, newer buildings designed were reinforced to meet to be earthquake-re- minimum safety require- trying to be as polite as hungry sistant and others were ments, which might be children can be. reinforced, as part of a expected to have more nationwide program. severe damage, could be “Eat, eat!” Grandma ordered with This is excellent progress, replaced over time. a smile, lowering herself into her and local students are seat. “I won’t have anyone starving expected to be much safer in this house.” as a result.

Haiyan brought the last few small things from the kitchen and slipped into her seat. There was companionable silence as everyone savored their first

HOMECOMING few bites. “Still the best,” sighed

56 57 EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO STORY

Yes, all the time. HOMECOMING

58