New Concept for Disaster Prevention, Mitigation and Relief in China in the New Era CAUTION HOMECOMING This project aligns with China’s new approach to disasters, which is to: This scenario story describes what Prioritize prevention; combine prevention with could happen to one fictional family preparedness and rescue; unify regular disaster reduction in the Linwei and Huazhou Districts of and extraordinary disaster relief; shift focus from post-disaster relief to prevention beforehand, from Weinan if the 1568 earthquake occurred coping with single disaster to comprehensive disaster in the present day. reduction, and from reducing losses to mitigating disaster risks; fully raise the comprehensive capability It is NOT a prediction of a specific of the whole society to resist natural disasters. disaster. It does NOT mean that an HOME earthquake akin to the one described will happen in Weinan in the near This hypothetical scenario will help future. No one knows when or where you to understand the specific the next earthquake might occur, nor A story about how a strong earthquake affects a family with “left-behind” children consequences of a damaging earth- how large and damaging it might be. quake, in the hope of stimulating Rather, this fictional scenario story is MAIN IMPLEMENTATION ORGANIZATIONS an example to help people visualize COMING discussions among various local specific consequences and learn what relevant agencies to foster consensus, China you can do now to lessen the impacts and encourage action to strengthen • Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration (CEA) of any future possible earthquake. This local top-down earthquake disaster • China Earthquake Disaster Prevention Center (CEDPC) description is intended only for use in Janise Rodgers, Guiwu Su, • The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, China risk reduction pathways. planning and preparedness exercises Timothy Sim, Philip England, United Kingdom and United States and in raising awareness of local John Young, Wenhua Qi • Overseas Development Institute (ODI), UK earthquake risk. • Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, UK and others • Department of Architecture, University of Cambridge, UK Some actions taken by the children in • GeoHazards International (GHI), USA the story’s village setting may not be advisable in other contexts. The authors, FUNDERS funders, publishers and other contrib- • National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC), China utors to this report are not responsible • Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), UK for any interpretation and use beyond • Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), UK the purposes stated. It is important to • Newton Fund, UK note that the story described is not a worst-case scenario. For emergency planning purposes, officials may also A story about how a strong wish to consider larger earthquakes, earthquake affects a family and earthquakes in different locations, Officials) Government for (Version different times of the day, and seasons with “left-behind” children of the year. Version for Government Officials This scenario describes how a repeat of the historical 1568 Shaanxi Northeast Xi’an earth- quake could impact the life of a family with “left-behind” children in a rural village in Weinan if it occurred in the present day. HOME COMING A story about how a strong earthquake affects a family with “left-behind” children Version for Government Officials Janise Rodgers, Guiwu Su, Timothy Sim, Philip England, John Young, Wenhua Qi and others NOTE CAUTION FOR READERS Editorial committee This scenario story describes what This document is intended for use could happen to one fictional family by local officials in Weinan, who Leading authors in the Linwei and Huazhou Districts already know their community well. For • Janise Rodgers GeoHazards International (GHI), USA of Weinan if the 1568 earthquake readers not local to the area, including • Guiwu Su Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration (CEA) occurred in the present day. international readers, this note provides • Timothy Sim The Hong Kong Polytechnic University (PolyU), China basic background about Weinan. • Philip England Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, UK It is NOT a prediction of a specific • John Young Overseas Development Institute (ODI), UK disaster. It does NOT mean that an Weinan is located to the east of Xi’an • Wenhua Qi Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration (CEA) earthquake akin to the one described in Shaanxi Province, in the Wei River will happen in Weinan in the near valley. Please see the map on page 12. Authors future. No one knows when or where The two municipal districts of the study Contributors from the same organization are listed in alphabetical order of their last names the next earthquake might occur, nor area, Linwei and Huazhou, contain how large and damaging it might be. the two main urban areas in Weinan • Xiaoli Li Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration (CEA) Rather, this fictional scenario story is prefecture (the prefecture is a larger • Zhiqiang Li an example to help people visualize administrative area with additional • Yaohui Liu specific consequences and learn what districts), as well as large rural areas • Min Qi • Lei Sun you can do now to lessen the impacts located in the valley, in the yellow- of any future possible earthquake. soil (loess) plateau and in the Qinling • Jie Gao China Earthquake Disaster Prevention Center • Dongming Wang This description is intended only for mountains to the south. As of 2017, these • Wei Shi use in planning and preparedness two districts had a total population of • Chunlan Guo The Hong Kong Polytechnic University (PolyU), China exercises and in raising awareness over 1.3 million and a Gross Domestic • Junlei Yu of local earthquake risk. Product of 46.6 billion RMB. • Xijie Feng Shaanxi Earthquake Agency, China • Ji Ma Some actions taken by the children in Linwei district adjoins eastern Xi’an, • Kun Chen Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration (CEA) the story’s village setting may not be which is one of the most historically • Yue Cao Overseas Development Institute (ODI), UK advisable in other contexts. The authors, and culturally important areas of funders, publishers and other contrib- the country with numerous heritage • Barry Parsons Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, UK utors to this report are not responsible sites. Weinan was devastated by the • Emily So Department of Architecture, University of Cambridge, UK for any interpretation and use beyond deadliest earthquake in recorded • Arrietta Chakos Urban Resilience Strategies, USA the purposes stated. It is important to history, the 1556 Huaxian earthquake • Craig Davis Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, USA (Retired) note that the story described is not a (approximately M8), and today • Alexander Densmore Department of Geography, Durham University, UK worst-case scenario. For emergency Weinan remains at risk from the • David Milledge School of Engineering, Newcastle University, UK planning purposes, officials may also numerous active earthquake faults wish to consider larger earthquakes, in the Wei River valley. and earthquakes in different locations, • Illustrator: Siu Kuen Lai Lotersy Arts and Printing Co., Hong Kong, China different times of the day, and seasons • Book Designer: Sandy Lui Lui & Co Design, Hong Kong, China of the year. HOMECOMING 2 3 Background information Brief introduction of the contents This earthquake scenario narrative is a product The principal investigators (PIs) of the project are: The scenario is supported by a dozen technical The narrative presented here is for of an international collaboration (PAGER-O: papers in academic journals that document government officials use. It includes the China Pan-participatory Assessment and Governance the basis for the hypothetical but plausible following three aspects: of Earthquake Risks in the Ordos Area) funded • Guiwu Su from Institute of Geology, China earthquake, on which the scenario is built, by the National Natural Science Foundation of Earthquake Administration (CEA) and which explain the basis for calculations First, a fictional story describes a local, rural China (NSFC) and by the Natural Environment of vulnerabilities and risks to the city of family with “left-behind” children, and their United Kingdom Research Council (NERC) and the Economic and Weinan and its surrounding areas, if such experiences in the scenario earthquake and Social Research Council (ESRC) of the UK. This • John Young from Overseas an earthquake was to occur. This technical its aftermath. The storylines of this story were programme aimed to combine the strengths Development Institute analysis is accompanied by two audience- carefully constructed to highlight the main of physical and social sciences to increase • Philip England from Department of Earth specific narratives of what the impacts might earthquake risk problems that Weinan faces. resilience and reduce risks from multi-hazards Sciences, University of Oxford be on the Weinan area in the event of such, in earthquake-prone regions in China. aiming to facilitate bridging the gap between Second, all the main results of the scenario PI Guiwu Su provided overall project leadership sciences and policies to reduce earthquake are presented systematically and succinctly; The PAGER-O project focused on the Ordos and guidance, as did PIs John Young and Philip risk. The two audience-specific narratives