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Budget Committee Escribe Agenda Package Budget Committee Date November 23, 2020 (9:30 a.m. – 12:30 p.m.) November 24, 2020 (9:30 a.m. – 4:30 p.m.) November 30, 2020 (9:30 a.m. – 12:30 p.m.) Time 9:30 AM Location Online Video Conference Members Mayor Bonnie Crombie (Chair) Councillor Stephen Dasko Ward 1 Councillor Karen Ras Ward 2 Councillor Chris Fonseca Ward 3 Councillor John Kovac Ward 4 Councillor Carolyn Parrish Ward 5 Councillor Ron Starr Ward 6 Councillor Dipika Damerla Ward 7 Councillor Matt Mahoney Ward 8 Councillor Pat Saito Ward 9 Councillor Sue McFadden Ward 10 Councillor George Carlson Ward 11 Participate Virtually Advance registration is required to participate and/or make comment in the virtual public meeting. To register, please email [email protected] no later than Thursday, November 19, 2020 before 4:00PM. Any materials you wish to show the Committee during your presentation must be provided as an attachment to the email. Links to cloud services will not be accepted. You will be provided with directions on how to participate from Clerks' staff. Participate Via Telephone Residents without access to the internet, via computer, smartphone or tablet, can participate and/or make comment in the meeting via telephone. To register, please call Dayna Obaseki at 905-615-3200 ext. 5425 no later than Thursday, November 19, 2020 before 4:00PM. You will be provided with directions on how to participate from Clerks' staff. Comments submitted will be considered as public information and entered into public record. Contact Dayna Obaseki, Legislative Coordinator, Legislative Services 905-615-3200 ext. 5425 Email [email protected] Find it Online http://www.mississauga.ca/portal/cityhall/budgetcommittee Budget Committee – November 23, 24 and 30, 2020 1 1. CALL TO ORDER 2. APPROVAL OF AGENDA 3. DECLARATION OF CONFLICT OF INTEREST 4. DEPUTATIONS To be considered on November 23: 4.1. Gary Kent, Commissioner of Corporate Services and Chief Financial Officer to provide Opening Remarks with respect to the 2021 Budget 4.2. Andrew Grantham, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CIBC Capital Markets with respect to the Economic Outlook 4.3. Bonnie Brown, Director, Economic Development with respect to Mississauga’s Economic Update 4.4. Jeff Jackson, Director of Finance and Treasurer to provide the 2021 Budget Overview (Item 7.2, 7.3, 7.4, 7.5 and 7.7) 5. PUBLIC QUESTION PERIOD - 15 Minute Limit (Public Question Period will be considered at each Budget Committee Meeting Date) Public Comments: Advance registration is required to participate and/or to make comments in the virtual public meeting. Any member of the public interested in speaking to an item listed on the agenda must register by calling 905-615-3200 ext. 5425 or at [email protected] by Thursday, November 19, 2020 before 4:00PM. Pursuant to Section 42 of the Council Procedure By-law 0139-2013, as amended: Budget Committee may grant permission to a member of the public to ask a question of Budget Committee, with the following provisions: 1. The question must pertain to a specific item on the current agenda and the speaker will state which item the question is related to. 2. A person asking a question shall limit any background explanation to two (2) statements, followed by the question. 3. The total speaking time shall be five (5) minutes maximum, per speaker. 6. CONSENT AGENDA To be considered on November 24 and/or November 30 Budget Committee – November 23, 24 and 30, 2020 2 7. MATTERS TO BE CONSIDERED (On November 23, 2020 Budget Committee to give direction to staff on the service presentations that are required for the Budget Committee meetings on November 24 and 30, 2020) 7.1. Service Area Presentations (15 minutes for each presentation) To be considered on November 24 and/or November 30: a) MiWay b) Roads c) Regulatory Services d) Culture e) Fire & Emergency Services f) Mississauga Library g) Recreation h) Parks, Forestry & Environment i) Facilities & Property Management j) Information Technology k) Legislative Services l) Business Services m) Land Development Services n) City Manager’s Office o) Financial Transactions p) Mayor and Members of Council q) Stormwater 7.2 2021 Advance Project Approval 7.3. 2021 Budget Engagement Results 7.4. 2021 Budget Considerations 7.5. Provincial Budget – Property Tax Impacts 7.6. Low Income Seniors Tax Relief Threshold Levels 7.7. Continuous Improvement Update 7.8. Municipal Act Reporting Requirements Under Ontario Regulation 284/09 8. CLOSED SESSION To be considered on November 24: 8.1. Labour Relations or Employee Negotiations – 2021 Total Compensation 9. ADJOURNMENT 4.2 Now For the Hard Part? Andrew Grantham, Executive Director & Senior Economist November 2020 4.2 Entering a New Phase of the Recovery 2 2,300 Canada Real GDP ($bn, SAAR) Pre-Pandemic Baseline 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC 4.2 Fiscal Stimulus Has Been Large Relative to 2008/09 3 Fiscal Stimulus (% GDP) 20 18 16 2008/09 Financial Crisis 14 Covid-19 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 France Germany Italy Japan UK US Canada Source: IMF, CBO, CIBC 4.2 Show Me the Money: Ottawa Keeps Households Afloat 4 Components of Canadian Household Income in Q2 (QoQ Change, Bn of $, SAAR) 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 Compensation of Government Household Employees Transfers Disposable Income Source: Statistics Canada, PBO, CIBC 4.2 Not a “Normal” Recession – Services Driven 5 600 Change in US Real Consumer Spending ($bn) 400 200 0 -200 -400 Financial Crisis (Peak to Trough) -600 Covid Pandemic (Sep vs Feb) -800 Services Goods Total Source: BEA, CIBC 4.2 Multiplier From Affected Areas Tends to be Smaller 6 Employment Multiplier (Jobs Outside of Specific Sector Supported by 100 Jobs 1200 Within That Sector) 1000 3 Most Impacted Sectors Today 800 3 Most Impacted in Financial Crisis 600 400 200 0 4.2 Not a “Normal” Recession – Job Losses More Concentrated 7 % Decline in Private Sector Payrolls Contribution of Worst Performing 15 Sectors vs Others 0 -1 -2 -3 Other -4 -5 Worst 15 -6 -7 -8 Financial Crisis (Peak to trough) Current vs Feb'20 4.2 Not a “Normal” Recession – Housing Rebuilds Quickly (L), 8 Mississauga Market Not as Tight (R) 140 85 Residential Sales Sales to Listings Ratio 80 120 (Index, Q4 2019 = 100) Ontario 75 100 City of Miss 70 80 65 60 City of Miss. 60 55 40 Ontario 50 20 45 0 40 2020 - Jul 2020 - 2019 - Jul 2019 - 2020 - Jul 2020 - 2020 - Jan2020 - 2019 - Jan2019 - 2020 - Sep 2020 - 2019 - Sep 2019 - 2020 - Mar2020 - 2019 - Mar2019 - 2020 - Apr 2020 - 2020 - Jan2020 - 2020 - Jun 2020 - 2019 - Nov2019 - 2020 - Sep 2020 - 2020 - Mar2020 - 2020 - Feb2020 - 2020 - May2020 - 2020 - Aug 2020 - 2019 - May2019 - 2019 - Dec 2019 - 2020 - May2020 - 4.2 All in the Same Boat, But Some Boats are Leaking Oil 9 Real GDP Unemployment Rate Consumer Price Index Y/Y % Chg % Y/Y % Chg 2019E 2020F 2021F 2022F 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F BC 2.8 -5.2 4.4 4.2 4.7 9.7 8.6 6.4 2.3 0.7 1.7 2.0 Alta -0.6 -7.5 4.2 6.1 6.9 11.4 10.4 8.3 1.7 1.1 2.0 2.0 Sask -0.8 -5.0 3.6 4.5 5.4 8.3 6.7 5.7 1.7 0.5 1.9 1.9 Man 1.0 -3.8 3.6 3.6 5.3 7.9 6.2 5.3 2.3 0.4 1.6 1.9 Ont 1.9 -5.3 4.1 4.7 5.6 9.4 8.1 6.8 1.9 0.5 1.6 1.8 Qué 2.7 -5.4 4.2 4.6 5.1 8.9 7.6 6.1 2.1 0.6 1.5 1.9 NB 1.0 -4.0 3.2 4.2 8.0 9.5 8.7 8.2 1.7 0.1 1.6 1.9 NS 2.1 -4.7 3.4 4.9 7.2 10.1 9.1 7.7 1.6 0.1 1.6 1.9 PEI 4.5 -5.4 3.2 5.2 8.8 10.8 9.7 9.0 1.2 0.0 2.0 1.9 N&L 4.0 -7.8 4.1 5.9 11.9 14.1 12.7 12.4 1.0 0.0 1.8 1.9 Canada 1.7 -5.5 4.1 4.8 5.7 9.6 8.3 6.8 1.9 0.6 1.7 1.9 Sources: CIBC, Statistics Canada, CMHC 4.2 Will Work From Home Change US Auto Demand Longer-Term? 10 45 40 Proportion of People Using Public 40 35 Transit Every Day (Pre-Pandemic) Range of Estimates 30 35 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 % WFH 50%+ Employers WFH Pre-Pandemic Offering WFH Capability Pre-Pandemic Source: National Geographic, BEA, BLS, CIBC 4.2 Remote Working Has Been Tried Most Extensively in Ontario 11 45 ON Where Where 40 Que BC NB 35 AB NS SK MB N&L PEI Proportion Jobs of Remote Working Possible Working Remote 30 10 15 20 25 Proportion of Jobs 100% Worked Remotely on March 31st Source: Bloomberg, Statistics Canada, CIBC 4.2 Room For Canadian Air Travel to Improve, Even Before Vaccine 12 Air Passenger Numbers 120 (Domestic & International, Index Jan = 100) 100 Australia China US Canada 80 60 40 20 0 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Source: Bloomberg, Statistics Canada, CIBC 4.2 Now For The Hard Part? 13 • Next 3-6 months will be choppy.
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