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Jemena Electricity Networks (Vic) Ltd Jemena Electricity Networks (Vic) Ltd 2018 Distribution Annual Planning Report Public 31 December 2018 An appropriate citation for this paper is: 2018 Distribution Annual Planning Report Contact Person Ashley Lloyd Network Capacity Planning & Assessment Manager Ph: (03) 9173 8279 [email protected] Jemena Electricity Networks (Vic) Ltd ABN 82 064 651 083 Level 16, 567 Collins Street Melbourne VIC 3000 Postal Address PO Box 16182 Melbourne VIC 3000 Ph: (03) 9713 7000 Fax: (03) 9173 7516 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Jemena is the licensed electricity distributor for the northwest of Melbourne’s greater metropolitan area. The Jemena Electricity Networks (JEN) service area covers 950 square kilometres of northwest greater Melbourne and includes the Melbourne International Airport, which is located at the approximate physical centre of the network, and some major transport routes. The network comprises over 6,0001 kilometres of electricity distribution lines and cables, delivering approximately 4,400 GWh of energy to over 345,000 homes and businesses for a number of energy retailers. The network service area ranges from Couangalt, Clarkefield and Mickleham in the north to Williamstown and Footscray in the south and from Hillside, Sydenham and Brooklyn in the west to Yallambie and Heidelberg in the east. The 2018 Distribution Annual Planning Report (DAPR) details the past performance of Jemena’s electricity network, summarises the asset management, demand forecasting and network development methodologies adopted by Jemena, and presents forecast electricity demand for the forward planning period (five year planning period from 2019 to 2023). The report also identifies existing and emerging network limitations to supplying forecast demand, and identifies and proposes credible options to alleviate or manage the identified electricity network limitations. Demand growth As a whole, the growth in demand across Jemena’s electricity network is slowing, with the network-wide 50% probability of exceedance (POE) summer maximum demand forecast to grow at an average rate of just 0.93% per annum between 2019 and 2023. Figure 1 shows the historical observed demand and ten-year forecasts for summer and winter, 10% POE and 50% POE conditions. 1 Does not include low voltage services. Public—31 December 2018 © Jemena Electricity Networks (Vic) Ltd iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Figure 1: Jemena historical and total maximum demand forecast Despite the general slowing in demand growth at the network level, there are areas within the network where maximum demand is forecast to grow well beyond the network average level, while other parts of the network are forecast to experience a decline in maximum demand as a result of manufacturing closures, such as Ford’s manufacturing plant in Broadmeadows. In general, areas where JEN expects a strong growth is in the northern half of the network. This is largely due to new developments associated with urban sprawl towards the edge of the Urban Growth Boundary. As a result of this urban sprawl and the recent extension of the Urban Growth Boundary, JEN expects to see continued strong growth in the areas currently supplied by Kalkallo (maximum demand forecast to grow at 8.5% per annum over the next five years), Somerton (1.4%), Sydenham (1.6%), Sunbury (1.4%), and Coolaroo (2%) zone substations. Some pockets within established inner suburbs are also experiencing strong growth as a result of amendments to the planning schemes to high density living. The high growth is predominately driven by the development of high rise residential and office buildings, and the expansion of community facilities and services, such as around Footscray Central Activities Area, Essendon Airport and Melbourne International Airport. As a result, JEN is forecasting high growth in maximum demand for areas currently supplied by Melbourne Airport (3.4% per annum over the next five years), Tullamarine (2.4%), Fairfield (3.8%), Footscray East (2.8%), Coburg South (2.8%), Yarraville (2.7%), and North Essendon (2.1%) zone substations. In other parts of the network, generally to the south, we are expecting low growth or a decline in maximum demand over the forward planning period. Table 1 presents a summary of the expected growth/decline in maximum demand across Jemena’s electricity network over the next five years. iv Public—31 December 2018 © Jemena Electricity Networks (Vic) Ltd EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Table 1: Supply area average annual maximum demand growth rate (2019-2023) Supply area average annual growth (2019-2023) Season Strong growth High Medium growth Low growth and possible decline (>5% p.a.) growth (1-3 % p.a.) (<1% p.a.) (3-5% p.a.) Summer Kalkallo Fairfield, Coolaroo, Coburg South, Australian Glass Manufacturer, Airport Melbourne Footscray East, North West, Broadmeadows, Braybrook, Airport Essendon, Sunbury, Broadmeadows South, Coburg North, Sydenham, Somerton, Essendon, Footscray West, Heidelberg, Tullamarine, Yarraville, Newport, Melbourne Water, North Watsonia Heidelberg, Pascoe Vale, St. Albans, Thomastown, Tottenham, Visy Network augmentation Due to the relatively low growth in maximum demand across the Jemena electricity network, Jemena is not proposing to undertake any major network developments over $10 million within the next five years. Asset replacement To ensure sufficient network capacity to supply customers, Jemena is responsible for managing its existing assets to ensure ongoing safety and reliability of supply. Utilising asset condition monitoring techniques, Jemena has identified that the following major projects on assets which are near the end of their useful life and pose increased public safety and reliability risks, justifying their replacement within the next five years: Replacement of Footscray West Zone Substation 22 kV switchgear and associated protection relays by November 2020. Replacement of Footscray East Zone Substation switchgear by November 2020. Replacement of the two Heidelberg Zone Substation transformers by November 2020. Replacement of Coburg North Zone Substation 22 kV switchgear and associated protection relays by November 2022. Replacement of one Broadmeadows Zone Substation transformer by November 2022. Continued conversion of the East Preston supply areas from 6.6 kV to 22 kV and the retirement of East Preston zone substation by June 2023. Public—31 December 2018 © Jemena Electricity Networks (Vic) Ltd v TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................................... iii Glossary .......................................................................................................................................................................... vii Station Names ................................................................................................................................................................... x Abbreviations .................................................................................................................................................................. xii 1. Introduction and Network Overview .................................................................................................................. 14 1.1 Purpose of the DAPR ................................................................................................................................. 14 1.2 Jemena Electricity Network ........................................................................................................................ 14 2. Network Development Process and Drivers ..................................................................................................... 17 2.1 Annual Planning Review Process............................................................................................................... 17 2.2 Asset Management Approach .................................................................................................................... 20 2.3 Demand Forecasting Methodology............................................................................................................. 29 2.4 Network Planning Methodology .................................................................................................................. 35 3. Network Performance ......................................................................................................................................... 44 3.1 Network Performance Indicators ................................................................................................................ 44 3.2 Historical Network Performance ................................................................................................................. 45 3.3 Network Performance Targets.................................................................................................................... 46 3.4 Network Performance Corrective Action .................................................................................................... 48 3.5 Quality of Supply ........................................................................................................................................ 48 4. Network Demand Forecasts ............................................................................................................................... 60 4.1 Changes to Demand Forecasts .................................................................................................................
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