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Distribution Annual Planning Report DISTRIBUTION ANNUAL PLANNING REPORT December 2019 Powercor Distribution Annual Planning Report – December 2019 Disclaimer The purpose of this document is to provide information about actual and forecast constraints on Powercor’s distribution network and details of these constraints, where they are expected to arise within the forward planning period. This document is not intended to be used for other purposes, such as making decisions to invest in generation, transmission or distribution capacity. Whilst care was taken in the preparation of the information in this document, and it is provided in good faith, Powercor accepts no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage that may be incurred by any person acting in reliance on this information or assumptions drawn from it. This Distribution Annual Planning Report (DAPR) has been prepared in accordance with the National Electricity Rules (NER), in particular Schedule 5.8, as well as the Electricity Distribution Code. This document contains certain predictions, estimates and statements that reflect various assumptions concerning, amongst other things, economic growth and load growth forecasts that, by their nature, may or may not prove to be correct. This document also contains statements about Powercor’s plans. These plans may change from time to time without notice and should therefore be confirmed with Powercor before any action is taken based on this document. Powercor advises that anyone proposing to use the information in this document should verify its reliability, accuracy and completeness before committing to any course of action. Powercor makes no warranties or representations as to the document’s reliability, accuracy and completeness and Powercor specifically disclaims any liability or responsibility for any errors or omissions. 2 Powercor Distribution Annual Planning Report – December 2019 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Overview .................................................................................................................. 7 1.1 Public consultation ......................................................................................... 8 2 Background ............................................................................................................. 9 2.1 Who we are .................................................................................................... 9 2.2 The five Victorian distributors ....................................................................... 10 2.3 Delivering electricity to customers ................................................................ 11 2.4 Operating environment and asset statistics .................................................. 12 3 Factors impacting network ................................................................................... 14 3.1 Demand ....................................................................................................... 14 3.2 Fault levels ................................................................................................... 15 3.3 Voltage levels ............................................................................................... 16 3.4 System security ............................................................................................ 16 3.5 Quality of supply to other network users ....................................................... 17 3.6 Ageing and potentially unreliable assets ...................................................... 17 3.6.1 Health Index .......................................................................................... 17 3.6.2 Replacement of 22kV sub-transmission network ................................... 18 3.6.3 Replacement of 6.6kV high voltage feeder network ............................... 18 3.7 Solar enablement ......................................................................................... 19 3.8 REFCLs ....................................................................................................... 19 3.8.1 Zone substations ................................................................................... 20 3.8.2 Other impacted areas of the network ..................................................... 21 4 Network planning standards ................................................................................. 23 4.1 Approaches to planning standards ............................................................... 23 4.2 Application of the probabilistic approach to planning .................................... 23 5 Forecasting demand .............................................................................................. 25 5.1 Maximum demand forecasts ........................................................................ 25 5.2 Zone substation methodology ...................................................................... 25 5.2.1 Historical demand .................................................................................. 25 5.2.2 Forecast demand ................................................................................... 26 5.2.3 Definitions for zone substation forecast tables ....................................... 26 5.3 Sub-transmission line methodology .............................................................. 27 5.3.1 Historical demand .................................................................................. 27 5.3.2 Forecast demand ................................................................................... 27 5.3.3 Definitions for sub-transmission line forecast tables ............................... 28 5.4 Primary distribution feeders .......................................................................... 28 5.4.1 Forecast demand ................................................................................... 29 6 Approach to risk assessment ............................................................................... 30 6.1 Energy at risk ............................................................................................... 30 6.2 Interpreting “energy at risk” .......................................................................... 31 6.3 Load Index ................................................................................................... 32 6.4 Valuing supply reliability from the customer’s perspective ............................ 33 7 Zone substations review ....................................................................................... 36 3 Powercor Distribution Annual Planning Report – December 2019 7.1 Zone substations with forecast system limitations overview ......................... 36 7.2 Zone substations with forecast system limitations ........................................ 37 7.2.1 Altona (AL) zone substation ................................................................... 37 7.2.2 Laverton zone substation (LV) ............................................................... 37 7.2.3 Werribee zone substation (WBE) ........................................................... 38 7.2.4 Bacchus Marsh zone substation (BMH) ................................................. 39 7.2.5 Bendigo zone substation (BGO) ............................................................ 40 7.2.6 Eaglehawk zone substation (EHK) ......................................................... 40 7.2.7 Maryborough zone substation (MRO) .................................................... 41 7.2.8 Truganina zone substation (TNA) .......................................................... 42 7.2.9 Drysdale zone substation (DDL) ............................................................ 42 7.2.10 Geelong City zone substation (GCY) ..................................................... 43 7.2.11 Geelong zone substation (GL) ............................................................... 43 7.2.12 Sunshine zone substation (SU).............................................................. 44 7.2.13 Waurn Ponds zone substation (WPD).................................................... 45 7.2.14 Merbein zone substation (MBN) ............................................................. 46 7.2.15 Mildura zone substation (MDA) .............................................................. 46 7.2.16 Cobram East zone substation (CME) ..................................................... 47 7.2.17 Mooroopna zone substation (MNA) ....................................................... 48 7.2.18 Terang zone substation (TRG)............................................................... 48 7.2.19 Wemen zone substation (WMN) ............................................................ 49 7.2.20 Charam (CHM) zone substation ............................................................. 50 7.2.21 Echuca zone substation (ECA) .............................................................. 50 7.2.22 Laverton North 11kV (LVN11) zone substation ...................................... 51 7.3 Proposed new zone substations ................................................................... 52 7.3.1 Tarneit zone substation (TRT) ............................................................... 52 7.3.2 Torquay zone substation (TQY) ............................................................. 52 8 Sub-transmission lines review ............................................................................. 53 8.1 Sub-transmission lines with forecast system limitations overview ................. 53 8.2 Sub-transmission lines with forecast system limitations ............................... 54 8.2.1 ATS-WBE-HCP 66 kV sub-transmission
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