Marylebone London Market Focus 2015
RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
MARYLEBONE LONDON MARKET FOCUS 2015
LONDON’S NEWEST MARYLEBONE OUTPERFORMS BETTER VALUE THAN SUPER-PRIME DISTRICT PRIME CENTRAL LONDON ‘GOLDEN POSTCODES’ LONDON’S NEWEST SUPER-PRIME DISTRICT Marylebone’s residential market has been transformed over recent years, but the delivery of new luxury developments means there is more change to come
Little over a decade ago Marylebone was an demand from north London, with purchasers and Belgravia. overlooked prime London address. Buyers relocating from St John’s Wood and This opportunity is clearly discernible in focussed on the more established markets Hampstead in particular, especially after their the growth of the super-prime (£10m-plus) to the south in Mayfair or St John’s Wood to children have left home and there is less need sales market. The neighbourhood has one the north. for outside space. of the most mature pipelines of high-quality Over the intervening period the area has Equally, there is continual demand from development schemes in central London, as become a case study in urban rejuvenation. buyers looking to exchange addresses the map on page 3 shows. Renewed long-term estate planning by both further south and west – those moving from The premium nature of the development the Howard de Walden and the Portman Mayfair represented 15% of buyers over the pipeline has played a key part in driving price Estates, which jointly control nearly 200 12 months to May 2015, while 5% of buyers growth in Marylebone. In the six years to acres of Marylebone and surrounding moved from Belgravia, and a little over 7% areas, has focused on improving the retail came from Knightsbridge, Chelsea and 2015, the average price of the top 10% of and restaurant offer, the quality of office Kensington. sales by value, increased almost threefold from £2.1m to £6.1m (figure 5). accommodation, and improvements to the Five years ago a key driver for moving into wider public realm. this area from Mayfair or Knightsbridge was The outperformance of pricing seen in the These changes have all helped to underpin relative affordability. In the intervening period, sales market has been reflected in the rental a sharp growth in demand for residential however, a process of equalisation has taken sector, with rents growing slightly more than property, which has driven prices higher. place, with Marylebone rapidly narrowing the 17% in the 24 months to June 2015 (figure price gap. 2). Residential tenant demand has been Over the 24 months to June 2015, price boosted by the growth of the midtown office Now, the key drivers of demand are the growth in Marylebone totalled 17%, market and the creation of high-specification quality of the urban environment and compared with 10% in prime central London offices in and around Baker Street, which as a whole, and 7% and 6% in Mayfair and property offer in Marylebone, although the investment opportunity is still an important have attracted high-value financial-sector Knightsbridge, respectively. consideration. occupiers. This upturn has also been driven by As figure 6 shows, £5m buys more square The arrival of Crossrail in 2018, with stations buyers’ greater willingness to consider new feet in Marylebone than other prime central at Paddington, Bond Street and Tottenham neighbourhoods in an effort to find the right London markets, based on a typical price Court Road will undoubtedly further boost property – the central London market has range of £3,000 to £3,500 per square foot. demand – but the central factor that will become notably more product rather than The potential for future growth is underlined continue to underpin the evolution of the location-led in recent years. by the fact that for exceptional properties, Marylebone market is the ongoing focus on Looking at where Marylebone’s buyers are achieved prices in excess of £5,000 per the quality of the urban environment by the moving from is instructive. There is notable square foot match those in Knightsbridge local landed estates.
FIGURE 1 FIGURE 2 Price growth in Marylebone outperforms (Rebased to 100) Rental value growth in Marylebone outperforms (Percentage change in two years to June 2015)
120 Marylebone Belgravia 115 Knightsbridge Mayfair 110 Prime central London +19% 105
100 +3% +3%
95 -1% 90 Marylebone Belgravia -6% Knightsbridge Apr-14 Apr-15 Oct-13 Oct-14 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Feb-14 Feb-15 Aug-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Dec-14 Mayfair Source: Knight Frank Residential Research Prime central London
2 MARYLEBONE 2015 RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
FIGURE 3 Key residential schemes in Marylebone
Not started Under construction Build complete
Regent’s Park Regent’s Park
St John’s Wood 1 Baker Street 11 Devonshire Pl
Marylebone Rd 5 16 Harley St 9 Edgware Road 13 2
22 20 Seymour Pl Baker St 3 Paddington 18 15 Basin Gloucester Pl 17 19
Old Marylebone Rd
6 Thayer St
GeorgeSt Cavendish Sq Edgware Rd
12 21 7
Wigmore St 14 10
Portman Square Oxford Square 8 Connaught St Seymour St Bond Street New Bond St
Marble Arch Oxford St 4 Mayfair
1 | Fitzrovia Apartments 9 | The W1 17 | 56-58 New Cavendish Street Private Units 77 Private Units 24 Private Units 8 Developer Manhattan Loft Corporation Developer Royalton Developer Howard de Walden Estates / Ridgeford Properties 2 | Chiltern Place 10 | The Mansion 18 | 66-68 New Cavendish Street Private Units 56 Private Units 21 Private Units 8 Developer Ronson Capital Partners Developer Clivedale Properties Developer Howard de Walden Estates
3 | Moxon Street Car Park 11 | The Park Crescent 19 | 5 Portland Place Private Units 54 Private Units 20 Private Units 7 Developer The Ridgeford Group of Companies Developer Amazon Property Developer Amazon Property
4 | Marble Arch Tower 12 | 66 Wigmore 20 | 7 Portland Place Private Units 49 Private Units 14 Private Units 7 Developer Almacantar Developer Howard de Walden Estates Developer Galliard Homes / Ricksave
5 | The Chilterns 13 | 124-130 Seymour Place 21 | 14-15 Fitzhardinge Street Private Units 44 Private Units 12 Private Units 6 Developer Galliard Homes Developer Holbud Investments Developer Lexus Developments Europe
6 | 1 Molyneux Street 14 | 3 Picton Place 22 | 1-6 Clay Street Private Units 31 Private Units 11 Private Units 5 Developer Residential Land Developer Great Wigmore Partnership Developer Great Marlborough Estates
7 | 19 Cavendish Square 15 | 70-72 New Cavendish Street Private Units 25 Private Units 10 Developer Harcourt Investments Developer Howard de Walden Estates
8 | 1-9 Seymour Street 16 | 96-98 Baker Street Private Units 24 Private Units 9 Developer The Portman Estate Developer Investre
3 FIGURE 4
Source: Knight Frank Residential Research St John's Wood
Regent’s Park RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH Tom Bill Head of London Residential Research +44 20 7861 1492 Marylebone [email protected]
LONDON RESIDENTIAL
Rupert Dawes Notting Hill Mayfair Head of New Homes +44 20 7861 5445 [email protected] Hyde Park Mark Wilkinson Kensington Head of Baker Street New Homes +44 20 7861 5414 [email protected] Knightsbridge Belgravia Meriam Makiya Head of Prime New Homes +44 20 7861 5487 South Kensington [email protected] Price Change 2000 to 2014 Christian Lock-Necrews
Higher Head of Marylebone Office Ch elsea +44 20 3435 6441 christian.lock-necrews @knightfrank.com Lower PriceCh ange 2000 to 2014 FIGURE 5 High Average prime sale price in Marylebone (top 10% of sales by value)
Low £2.1m £2.5m £3.5m £3.1m £4.2m £5.2m £6.1m
2015 Knight Frank Residential Research provides 2014 strategic advice, consultancy services and 2013 forecasting to a wide range of clients worldwide 2011 2012 including developers, investors, funding 2009 2010 organisations, corporate institutions and the public sector. All our clients recognise the need Source: Knight Frank Residential Research for expert independent advice customised to their specific needs.
FIGURE 6 More space for your money in Marylebone Square feet of prime new-build property that £5 million buys
Sq ft Marylebone Belgravia Knightsbridge Mayfair 1,700
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