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Ukraine's Soft Power in the Region: the Tool for Effective Foreign Policy

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Ukraine's Soft Power in the Region: the Tool for Effective Foreign Policy UKRAINE'S SOFT POWER IN THE REGION: THE TOOL FOR EFFECTIVE FOREIGN POLICY Kyiv 2011 Policy paper “Ukraine’s Soft Power in the Region: The tool for effective foreign policy” was prepared by the Institute of World Policy as part of its project implemented under Ukraine National Initiatives to Enhance Reforms (UNITER) program, which is funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and implemented by Pact Inc. This information product is made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are those of the Institute of World Policy and do not necessarily refl ect the views of USAID, Pact Inc. or the United States Government. No part of this paper may be reproduced or transferred in any form or by any means, graphic, electronic, or including photocopying or by any information storage retrieval system, without the proper reference to the original source. This publication was prepared by an expert group consisting of: Alyona Getmanchuk Iryna Ozymok Oksana Pyliavets Kateryna Shynkaruk Serhiy Solodkyy Evgen Yenin Kateryna Zarembo © 2011, Institute of World Policy CONTENTS Contents INTRODUCTION 4 Ukraine's Soft Power in Belarus ................................................................................................................................. 6 Ukraine's Soft Power in Georgia ............................................................................................................................... 20 Ukraine's Soft Power the Republic of Moldova .................................................................................................... 33 Ukraine's Soft Power in Poland ............................................................................................................................... 49 Ukraine's Soft Power in Romania .............................................................................................................................. 64 Ukraine's Soft Power in Russia .................................................................................................................................. 80 SUMMARY AND GENERAL RECOMMENDATIONS 95 3 UKRAINE'S SOFT POWER IN THE REGION: THE TOOL FOR EFFECTIVE FOREIGN POLICY Introduction Here is the explanation from the Harvard Professor Joseph S. Nye who coined the term: a state’s soft power is its ability to achieve its own goals by attraction rather than coercion. The context of soft power usually refers to the world’s leading nations; the USA, the EU Member States, Russia and China. However, any country can exert soft power. The Institute of World Policy is the fi rst think-tank to implement a comprehensive project examining a regional rather than a global power, Ukraine. The goal of the project «Ukraine's Soft Power in the Region: The tool for effective foreign policy» is to make Ukraine «trendy» and popular for neighbouring states, so that Ukraine could use its attractiveness for the benefi t of its own national interests. Using a specially developed methodology that Joseph S. Nye himself approved of, IWP estimated the potential of Ukraine’s soft power in six states, EU Member States Poland and Romania, Ukraine’s partners in European integration Moldova and Georgia, and the neighbours in the North, Belarus and Russia. The expert team of the Institute of World Policy analysed the soft power of Ukraine from more than 30 quantitative and qualitative indicators, covering political, economic and public diplomacy levels.1 Obviously, the sources of Ukrainian soft power in these states cannot be identical. Professor Nye, during a videoconference held by IWP within the framework of the project, explained this as follows: «Some of your progress in democratic development could be attractive in the eyes of Poles, alarm the Kremlin and even enrage Belarus. If your neighbours have a different vision of politics, it is rather diffi cult to fi nd a way that would be interesting and equally attractive to all of them.»2 The project «Ukraine's Soft Power in the Region: The tool for effective foreign policy» consisted of fi ve components: 1. The research of Ukraine’s soft power according to soft power indicators on the political, economic and public diplomacy levels. 2. A media monitoring understood as the analysis of the number, tone and message of the news covering Ukraine’s domestic and foreign policy events. Five to eight online media from each country (Belarus, Georgia, Poland, Romania, Moldova, and Russia) were selected for this analysis. The publications sampling was based on Google and Yahoo search results as well as the relevant news websites’ own search engines to indicate the following set of key words: «Ukraine,» «Yanukovych,» «Tymoshenko,» «Ukrainian policy» and «Kyiv.» The results were processed using the Wordle application. The sampling time frame included the period of Viktor Yanukovych’s presidency (2010-2011). 3. An expert survey «Top-30 Notions Associated with Ukraine in the Region.» Based on the answers of nearly 100 prominent experts, journalists, politicians and statesmen from the six countries of the region, IWP has identifi ed TOP-5 Notions Associated with Ukraine in each state of the region, and the index of Ukraine’s soft power in these states, based on a ten-point scale and an arithmetical mean of aggregated ratings that the surveyed experts provided. 4. IWP commissioned a series of political cartoons «Ukraine through the eyes of neighbouring nations,» drawn by the artists from the surveyed countries as well as Ukraine. Some of these 4 INTRODUCTION cartoons were used as illustrations in this study. 5. Videoconferences with Prof. Joseph S. Nye (USA) and Adam Michnik, the Editor-in-Chief of «Gazeta Wyborcza» (Poland). The result of this study is a policy paper on the potential of the soft power of Ukraine in the region, and recommendations for strengthening thereof, which we hope will become a source of ideas for decision-makers, experts and the interested public. Viktor Shlinchak, Alyona Getmanchuk, Chair of the Supervisory Board Director Institute of World Policy Institute of World Policy 1 We are speaking not of political or economic means of infl uence, but of those aspects of political and economic relations with Ukraine which are perceived positively in a surveyed country, such as friendships between politicians, reputation of Ukrainian businessmen, popular products etc. 2 http://glavcom.ua/articles/3171.html 5 UKRAINE'S SOFT POWER IN THE REGION: THE TOOL FOR EFFECTIVE FOREIGN POLICY Ukraine's Soft Power in Belarus SO CLOSE, YET SO DISTANT The historical destinies of Ukraine and Belarus are so close, it would stand to logic for Kyiv and Minsk to move side by side along the road of progress. An important aspect of the relationships between these countries is that their history is not blemished by a single military conflict. Unlike Russia, Ukraine could be regarded by Belarus as a partner, ally, rather than Big Brother. However, in the mid-1990s the two countries adopted different national development models. Belarus aimed at integrating into Russia-dominated structures whereas Ukraine, maneuvering between the European- Union and Russian vectors, remained predominantly West-oriented. Two alternatives determined the domestic realities in both countries: whereas Ukraine struggled to get rid of the authoritarian principles of public and political life, Belarus reconstructed Soviet realities. In other words, one wit- nessed a de facto competition between two post-Soviet development models. Is Ukraine competitive in this sense today? Definitely not. Even though Ukraine is ahead of Belarus by a number world rat- ing indices, this gap is not large enough for the Belarusian to feel that the Ukrainian development model is better. Besides, local Belarusian authorities keep reiterating the exceptional advantages of the road chosen by that country, compared to the wrong ones chosen by other post-Soviet countries (e.g., Ukraine in the first place). That is precisely why one cannot assume that Belarus is emulating Ukraine's experience of reform or the preservation of democratic values. Russia, meanwhile, has played a more important role for Belarus than Ukraine. To this end, Russia has applied both soft and hard power. The soft one is a unity of Slavic peoples, the formation of a union of Russia and Belarus, and common history. The hard one is fuel blackmail. Ukraine has never played out any of these scenarios. Each time Russia deviated from its support of Lukashenka, official Minsk changed its attitude to Kyiv. In 2002, after a conflict between the leaders of Russia and Belarus and the shortening of gas supplies from Russia, Alexander Lukashenka declared: «I should have waged the same policy as Leonid Kuchma and the Ukrainian government all these years, flirting with Russia while joining the European Union, NATO, and having the kind of relationships they have with the United States.»1 Ukraine's soft power index in Belarus is 4.59 points out of 10,2 as shown in Table 1 below. Table 1. Ukraine's soft power index in Belarus SOFT POWER PARAMETERS MEAN VALUE Ukraine's foreign and domestic policy 3.12 Infl uence of the Ukrainian community 2.91 Ukrainian embassy's activities 6.09 Popularity of Ukrainian culture 6.71 Popularity of Ukrainian products 4.12 AVERAGE INDEX 4.59 6 UKRAINE'S SOFT POWER IN BELARUSРОЗДІЛ DEMOCRACY: AN IRRITANT OR SOFT POWER? To the Belarusian experts polled by the Institute of World Policy (IWP), Ukraine was mostly associ-
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