Investigating the Effectiveness of Hedging Bunker Price Fluctuation Dang Ben Nguyen World Maritime University
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World Maritime University The Maritime Commons: Digital Repository of the World Maritime University World Maritime University Dissertations Dissertations 2007 Investigating the effectiveness of hedging bunker price fluctuation Dang Ben Nguyen World Maritime University Follow this and additional works at: http://commons.wmu.se/all_dissertations Recommended Citation Nguyen, Dang Ben, "Investigating the effectiveness of hedging bunker price fluctuation" (2007). World Maritime University Dissertations. 400. http://commons.wmu.se/all_dissertations/400 This Dissertation is brought to you courtesy of Maritime Commons. Open Access items may be downloaded for non-commercial, fair use academic purposes. No items may be hosted on another server or web site without express written permission from the World Maritime University. For more information, please contact [email protected]. WORLD MARITIME UNIVERSITY Malmö, Sweden INVESTIGATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF HEDGING BUNKER PRICE FLUCTUATION By BEN NGUYEN DANG Vietnam A dissertation submitted to the World Maritime University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE In MARITIME AFFAIRS (SHIPPING MANAGEMENT) 2007 ©Copyright Ben Nguyen Dang, 2007 DECLARATION F*G I certify that all the material in this dissertation that is not my own work has been identified, and that no material is included for which a degree has previously been conferred on me. The contents of this dissertation reflect my own personal views, and are not necessarily endorsed by the University. ……………………………… (Ben Nguyen Dang) August, 2007 ……………………………… Supervised by Professor Pierre Cariou World Maritime University Assessor: Shuo Ma Professor World Maritime University Co-assessor: Orestis Schinas Doctor Transmart Consulting, Greece ii ACKOWLEDGEMENT F*G First of all I would like to express my gratefulness to the Sasakawa Foundation of Japan, particularly to Mr. Yohei Sasakawa, which provided the scholarship to make my postgraduate studies at World Maritime University possible. I pay my sincere thanks to Vietfracht and more particularly to Madam Hoa, General Director, who supported my application and in many ways made it possible for me to attend World Maritime University. I am deeply grateful to Professor Pierre Cariou, for his valuable advice, constructive suggestions and encouragement that enabled me to complete this dissertation; Professor Shuo Ma for his valuable and constructive knowledge; Professor Patrick Donner for his wise instruction and advice during this course; the staff of WMU, particularly the staff of the library Ms Susan Wangeci-Eklow and Ms Cecilia Denne who paid their patient assistance to me in every requirements. The author also thanks IMAREX, the Oslo based International Maritime Exchange, and gives special thanks to its Singapore office’s Mr. Thomas Anzalone who provided useful data for this dissertation. My high appreciation is paid to all friends and colleagues, and the Henrik Smiths Hostel staff, who gave me essential support during my stay in Malmo. Special thanks I owe also to Ms. Thuong who always gives me the necessary support and encouragement. From the bottom of my heart, I dedicate this dissertation to my beloved parents, who offered me full support and encouragement and tolerated my long absence during the studies in Malmö, Sweden. Last but not least, I thank to all those who I have failed to mention here specifically. Ben Nguyen Dang iii ABSTRACT F*G Title of Dissertation: Investigating the effectiveness of hedging bunker price fluctuation Degree: Master of Science in Maritime Affairs (Shipping Management) The dissertation investigates the effectiveness of hedging bunker price fluctuation in three main bunker markets: Singapore, Rotterdam and Houston. To begin with, a deep literature review on the topic is carried out. A brief development of the bunker market from 1990 to 2007 is examined. The influential factors of bunker supply and demand are identified, from which the most determinant factors are discovered by correlation methods. Moreover, methodologies for estimating the hedging effectiveness and hedge ratio are taken into consideration. The application of such financial derivatives into shipping as futures contract, forward contract, options and swaps agreements are carefully examined with some practical examples. Special attention is paid to futures and forward contracts. Finally, the effectiveness of hedging bunker price fluctuation in Singapore, Rotterdam and Houston is investigated using (1): a direct-hedge with bunker forward contracts traded at the International Maritime Exchange (IMAREX) and (2): a cross- hedge using different energy futures contracts traded at New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). Using the OLS regression model, it is found that the hedging effectiveness is different in Singapore, Rotterdam and Houston. The most effective futures instruments for a direct-hedge in Rotterdam and Singapore is the 1-month bunker forward contracts. Meanwhile, for a cross-hedge, WTI futures contracts prove the highest effectiveness of performance in a hedging bunker spot price fluctuation at Rotterdam and Singapore. KEY WORDS: Bunker, bunker price, spot market, futures market, fluctuation, hedging, hedging effectiveness, hedge ratio, OLS regression. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS F*G Page Declaration........................................................................................................................ ii Acknowledgement ...........................................................................................................iii Abstract............................................................................................................................ iv Table of Contents.............................................................................................................. v List of Tables ................................................................................................................... ix List of Figures................................................................................................................... x List of Abbreviations ....................................................................................................... xi CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................... 1 1.1 Objective.................................................................................................................. 3 1.2 Methodology............................................................................................................ 4 1.3 Structure of the dissertation ..................................................................................... 5 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEWS ON HEDGING IN THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY........................................................................................... 7 2.1 Literature reviews.................................................................................................. 7 2.1.1 General notes on the spot market, future market and hedging .................... 7 2.1.1.1 Spot market, future market and hedging....................................... 7 2.1.1.2 Hedging versus speculation .......................................................... 8 2.1.1.3 Direct-hedge versus cross-hedge .................................................. 9 2.1.1.4 Hedge ratio.................................................................................. 10 2.1.2 Review on general hedging studies ........................................................... 10 2.1.3 Review of hedging studies in shipping industry........................................ 12 2.1.3.1 Review of hedging freight rates studies...................................... 12 2.1.3.2 Review of hedging bunker price studies..................................... 13 2.2 Chapter conclusion .............................................................................................. 14 v CHAPTER 3 INFLUENTIAL FACTORS OF THE BUNKER MARKET ........ 15 3.1 The bunker market.............................................................................................. 16 3.1.1 Development of bunker market 1990-2007............................................... 18 3.1.1.1 1990-1999 period: low bunker price and stable development.... 18 3.1.1.2 2000-2007 period: high bunker price and fluctuation ................ 20 3.1.2 Singapore –Rotterdam –Houston: three major bunker markets................. 21 3.1.2.1 Singapore .................................................................................... 22 3.1.2.2 Rotterdam.................................................................................... 23 3.1.2.3 Houston....................................................................................... 24 3.2 Influential factors of the bunker market ........................................................... 25 3.2.1 Supply factors ............................................................................................ 25 3.2.1.1 Oil market ................................................................................... 25 3.2.1.2 Changes in bunker level, refining capacities .............................. 28 3.2.1.3 Other supply factors: delivery methods, change in oversea competition, change in local market........................................... 29 3.2.2 Demand factors.......................................................................................... 30 3.2.2.1 Development of world economy................................................