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India's Interest in Southeast Asia / Jonah Blank, Jennifer D.P

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India's Interest in Southeast Asia / Jonah Blank, Jennifer D.P Look East, Cross Black Waters India’s Interest in Southeast Asia Jonah Blank, Jennifer D. P. Moroney, Angel Rabasa, Bonny Lin C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1021 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Blank, Jonah. | Moroney, Jennifer D. P., 1973- | Rabasa, Angel. | Lin,Bonny. Title: Look east, cross black waters : India's interest in Southeast Asia / Jonah Blank, Jennifer D.P. Moroney, Angel Rabasa, Bonny Lin. Description: Santa Monica, CA : Rand, 2015. | Includes bibliographical references. Identifiers: LCCN 2015027613 | ISBN 9780833089014 (pbk. : alk. paper) Subjects: LCSH: Southeast Asia—Relations—India. | India—Relations—Southeast Asia. | China—Relations—India. | India—Relations—China. Classification: LCC DS525.9.I4 L66 2015 | DDC 327.54059—dc23 LC record available at http://lccn.loc.gov/2015027613 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2015 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover image by Utpal Baruah/Reuters. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface As the United States shifts its security posture eastward in an “Asian rebalancing,” a key piece of the reconfigured puzzle will be that of India. With the world’s third-largest military, a near-triad nuclear arse- nal, and one-sixth of the planet’s population, India cannot help but figure prominently into America’s geostrategic security vision for the coming decades. India’s interests in Southeast Asia, therefore, are of vital concern for America’s Asian rebalance and its broader global goals. A U.S. strategy for the Asia-Pacific region must be based on a better understanding of the potential conflict and alignment of the strategic objectives in Southeast Asia of the United States, India, and China. Considerable work has been done on China’s goals and objec- tives, but those of India remain far less understood. This is partly due to India’s own strategic vagueness: Indian policy toward Asia in gen- eral, and Southeast Asia in particular, is very much a work in progress, and this progress is still in its early stages. India’s relationship with Japan is entering a particularly dynamic phase, and this report does not aim to examine the totality of India’s “Look East” policy; instead, it focuses on Southeast Asia—an area in which India’s engagement has deep historical roots but remains very far from reaching its potential. Security strategists in the United States and other nations need a more accurate and nuanced understanding of India’s policy—and of the political, economic, technological, and cultural constraints keeping Indian policy from developing more rapidly. Such constraints include a political system in which the demands of domestic constituencies typi- cally outweigh the incentives of foreign policy boldness, a budgetary iii iv Look East, Cross Black Waters: India’s Interest in Southeast Asia system in which funding for security priorities often has weaker politi- cal support than do competing priorities such as agricultural or fuel subsidies, and a decisionmaking culture shaped by Nehruvian Non- Alignment that still bears the memories of India’s humiliation at the hands of China when the two Asian giants last fought in 1962. The election in May 2014 of a Bharatiya Janata Party government with a historic parliamentary majority will enable the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to push against some of these constraints, but not to remove them. While Modi is the first Indian leader in 30 years free to govern without coalition partners, he focused his campaign almost entirely on domestic issues; his administration took office with neither a mandate nor a clear desire for radical departure from India’s traditional positions. India’s policy toward Southeast Asia will still be torn in two direc- tions: On one hand, the Look East program initiated in 1992 has been upheld by all Indian governments since; on the other hand, Indian politics have generally been inward-looking for centuries—a tendency exemplified by the traditional belief that crossing the kala pani (“black waters,” the oceans to India’s east, west, and south) would result in the loss of caste. These two tendencies—engagement and isolation— remain in conflict today, and their contention is likely to shape Indian policy for decades to come. This study builds on past RAND Corporation work, much of it conducted for the United States Air Force (USAF) under Project AIR FORCE, including: • Eric Heginbotham, Angel Rabasa, and Scott Harold, Frontline Southeast Asia: U.S.-China Competition for Political-Military Influence, unpublished RAND research, March 2013. • Angel Rabasa and Peter Chalk, Non-Traditional Threats and Mar- itime Domain Awareness in the Tri-Border Area of Southeast Asia: The Coast Watch System of the Philippines, OP-372-OSD, 2012. • James Dobbins et al., What’s the Potential for Conflict with China, and How Can It Be Avoided? RB-9657-A, 2012. • Charles Wolf et al., China and India, 2025: A Comparative Assess- ment, MG-1009-OSD, 2011. Preface v • Julie S. DaVanzo, Harun Dogo, and Clifford A. Grammich, Demographic Trends, Policy Influences, and Economic Effects in China and India Through 2025, WR-849, 2011. In addition to these documents, this report draws on the unpub- lished or not publicly released work of colleagues including David R. Frelinger, Joy Laha, Benjamin S. Lambeth, Andrew Scobell, and Katharine Watkins Webb. The research reported here was commissioned by the U.S. Air Force’s Director of Operational Plans (AF/A5X), Assistant Vice Chief of Staff (AF/CVA), and Deputy Under Secretary for International Affairs (SAF/IA), and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part of a fiscal year 2013 project “India’s Interest in Southeast Asia.” RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corpo- ration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and develop- ment center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Train- ing; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: http://www.rand.org/paf Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. xi Tables .............................................................................xiii Summary ..........................................................................xv Acknowledgments .............................................................xxix CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Background ........................................................................ 1 The Policy Problem ................................................................ 4 Purpose of This Document ....................................................... 4 Organization ....................................................................... 4 CHAPTER TWO Why Does India’s Interest in Southeast Asia Matter to the United States? .......................................................................... 7 Congruence of Indian and U.S. Goals in Southeast Asia ..................... 9 Implications for U.S. Strategy of “Asian Rebalancing” ......................14 Implications for Overall U.S.-India Relationship ............................15 Implications for U.S. Burden-Sharing and Cost Savings .....................19 CHAPTER THREE What Is India’s Strategy Toward Southeast Asia? ........................ 23 Background to India’s Strategy: Ancient Culture, Non-Invasive Politics ... 23 Elements of Indian Strategy: Connectivity, Trade, Energy, Diplomatic vii viii Look East, Cross Black Waters: India’s Interest in Southeast Asia Institutions, Security Cooperation, Humanitarian Assistance/ Disaster Relief, Balancer for China ........................................37 CHAPTER FOUR How Is India’s Strategy Being Implemented in Southeast Asia? ........79 Singapore ...........................................................................82 Vietnam ........................................................................... 88 Myanmar/Burma
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