Ringing in Proliferation Ringing in Proliferation Alexander H. Montgomery How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb Network Ringing in Proliferation The nuclear nonpro- liferation regime has come under attack from a group of academics and policy- makers who argue that traditional tools such as export controls, diplomatic pressure, arms control agreements, and threats of economic sanctions are no longer sufªcient to battle proliferation. They point to North Korea’s reinvigo- ration of its plutonium program, Iran’s apparent progress in developing a nu- clear capability, and the breadth of the Abdul Qadeer (A.Q.) Khan network as evidence that the regime is failing.1 In addition, they claim that proliferation is driven by the inevitable spread of technology from a dense network of suppli- ers and that certain “rogue” states possess an unºagging determination to ac- quire nuclear weapons. Consequently, they argue that only extreme measures such as aggressively enforced containment or regime change can slow the ad- dition of several more countries to the nuclear club. This “proliferation deter- minism,” at least in rhetoric, is shared by many prominent members of President George W. Bush’s administration and has become the main thrust of U.S. counterproliferation policy.2 Yet current proliferators are neither as “dead Alexander H. Montgomery is a postdoctoral fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University. Please send comments to
[email protected]. The author is grateful for critiques of multiple versions of this article from Paul MacDonald and Todd Sechser; comments from an anonymous reviewer for International Security; suggestions from Chaim Braun, Christopher Chyba, Lynn Eden, Scott Sagan, and Dean Wilkening; and feedback from the partici- pants in the Research Seminar at the Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford Institute for International Studies, Stanford University.