Report No. P-2147-PAK(s) Pakistan: Hazara Forestry Pre-lnvestment Project Technical Annexes FILE COPY
October 1977 South Asia Projects Department
Public Disclosure Authorized Agriculture Division B
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized
Document of the World Bank Public Disclosure Authorized
This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. PAKISTAN
HAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECT
Currency Equivalent
US$ = PRs 9.8 PRs 1 US$ 0.10 PRs I million (m) US$302,000
Weights and Measures
I acre (ac) 0.405 hectare (ha) I kana] 0.125 acre I mile (mi) 1.609 kilometers (km) 1 foot (ft) 0.3048 meters I inch (in) 2.540 centimeters 1 cubic foot (ft ) 0.0283 cubicmeter (m3) 1 pound (Ib) =0.454 kilograms (kg) 3 liter (]) 0.264 US gallons I maund 82.3 lbs = 37.4 kg
Abbreviations
ACF - Assistant Conservator of Forests
DBH - Tree diameter at breast heilght (4 ft. 3 in.) DFO - Divisional Forest Officer
FD - Forest Department of NWFP
GOAK - Government of Azad Kashmir GONWFP - Government of North West Frontier Province GOP - Government of Pakistan
MAI - Mean annual volume increment of growing trees
NWFP - North West Frontier Province
PFI - Pakistan Forest Institute
Glossary
Pulp - Wood pulp produced by mechanical or chemical means. Pulpwood - Wood used in pulp manufacture; usually small dimension roundwood and wood waste from other forms of wood processing. Roundwood - Unprocessed logs in round form.
Fiscal Year - GOP and GONWFP
July 1 to June 30 FMR 01FfCIAL USE ONLY
PAKISTAN: Supplement to Hazara Forestry Pre-Investment Project
Technical Annexes containing Working Papers for project imp] ementation
October, 1977
South Asia Projects Department Agricul ture Division B
The data and other materia7 contained in the technical arnexes have been compiled to give direction to project activities and provide a basis for developing detailed work programs for the various sub-components. Except as specifically provided for in the legal documents for the project, the details of project actions which are described in the annexes are not definitive and it is e.xoected that changes in design and scope will occur as the project deveJopes.
This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World RIank authorizsation.
PAKISTAN
HAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECT TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Introduction 3
Hazara Forestry Development Plan 2
Project Area 2
Project Activities 3
Project Management
Costs
Financing 6
Benefits 6
Tables
1. Phasing of Project Activities R.etails of PhKIicalCRejultents and Costs J ummary o0 CssOsee Dy eost atgo Annexes
l. Site Assessment and Inventory 2. Pilot Plantations, Research Trials and Pulping Tests 3. Training and Fellowships 4. Guzara Forest Owners Task Force 5. Forest Industries Feasibility Study 6. Organization and Management 7. Preliminary Program Evaluation
Map IBRD 12496 R
PAKISTAN
HAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECT
Introduction
1. The Governments of Pakistan (GOP) and North West Frontier Province (GONWFP) have requested a credit for technical assistance through a Hazara Forestry Pre-Investment Project in the Hazara region of the North West Frontier Province. This project would be the first phase of a program of development to bring to the region industrial forest plantations, intensive exploitation operations, and pulp and paper mill. The annexes to this report contain detailed descriptions of the area, background and proposed project activities. These are briefly summarized below.
2. Forestry and forest industry project proposals for the Hazara district have been under consideration for some tine, including the introduction of large scale afforestation and the construction of a pulp mill at Mansehra, based on the lower elevation Chir pine (Pinus roxburghii) zone. These developments would involve exploitation of the existing Chir pine forests, establishment of short-rotation pulpwood plantations in Government Reserved and private "Guzara" forests, and management of the whole area on an intensive sustained-yield basis to meet the needs of the proposed industry as well as the local population.
3. To initiqe the pulp mill project, GOP has had a preliminary feasibility study undertaken. 1. In addition, GONWFP is presently conducting preliminary studies aimed at :
( i) evaluating the Chir pine forests which fall within a radius of some 40 miles of the proposed Nansehra pulp mill site;
( ii) investigating the potential for utilizing the privately owned Guzara forests lands and forest wastelands in the region;
(iii) deve]oping techniques for the establishment of short-rotation plantation forests in the area to replace the long-rotation system presently being followed; and,
( iv) developing an institutional framework which would enable both publicly and privately owned forests lands to be managed intensively to provide for regular local needs and the fibre requirements of the proposed industrial development.
lj Feasibility Study for Long Fiber Pulp Project to utilize forest resources of NWFP. Zafar and Associates and Stadler Hurter, 1973. -2-
Proposed Development Plan
4. The technical development project would support and extend this work in the Chir pine sone of Hazara and expedite implementation of a development plan. As presently conceived, the plan would comprise three phases as follows :
Phase One This phase would begin with the technical development 1977'U-2 project and extend over a five-year period commencing in 1977. The project area would be thoroughly evaluated for inventory and plantation development areas, plantation management techniques would be established, institutional frameworks developed, and project preparation for subsequent large-scale planting and for industrial development would be completed. 2 Phase Two This phase would begin in 1980 with the cmmencement 1980 -- 85 of large-scale planting of both Chir pine and hardwood species and the construction and start-up of the first stage of the pulp mill and associated logging industry. At present, it appears that a 30,000 to 4o,ooo ton per annum long-fibred kraft pulp mill. using Chir pine would be the most logical development but provision has been made in the Phase One of the program for detailed feasibility studies to confirm or modify this preliminary conclusion.
Phase Three This phase would include a second-stage forestry 7 90 project which would complete the establishment of the estimated 85,000 acres required to support the proposed pulp and paper mill. The mill would be expanded during this phase by the addition of a 40,000 ton per annum newsprint mil-1 which would use hardwood species pulped by a semi-chemical process, with a proportion of long- fibred pulp added to the furnish. Again, this tentative mill configuration could be modified in subsequent detailed studies to be carried out during earlier phases of the program.
ProJect Area
5. The project area is within an approximate radius of 30 miles of Mansehra; it contains some 60,000 acres of existing Chir pine forests of which some 50% is government reserved forests and 50% private Guzara forests, and some 90,000 acres of treeless Guzara land which is considered suitable for reforestation. The area is described in detail in Annex 1 and shown in Map 1.
2/ It will be noted that a two-year "overlap" has been provided extending the Technical Development project into the implementation of Phase Two. This is a contingent safeguard against any unforeseen problems which may deveJop and is intended to add flexibility to the program. -3-
Project Activities
6. The project would be for five years and would include the activities described below;. the phasing of activities is presented in Table 1.
( i) a site assesament surwey to select suitable areas for large-scale afforestation and exploitation within the catchient area proposed for the mill, having regard to the physical limitations of the forest lands and the requirements for wood supplies and grazing to neet local demand; compilation of management ago at scale 1:25,000, (see Annex 1);
( ii) complementing the site assessment, there would be a complete updating of the inventory of the existing forest resource to provide reliable data of current timber stocking for the feasibility study, (see Annex 1);
(iii) Pilot plantations with back-up research trials extending to some 5,000 acres to achieve early impact of improved technology and establish a sound bases for large-scale afforestation; institute longer-term tree breeding improvement and possible improved species, (see Annex 2); ( iv) training and fellowships to accelerate the implementation of improved technologLes including a specialist in p]antations deve]opment for the first three years; an inventory specialist in Year 1; overseas study tours for project staff in Years 1, 2 and 3, (see Annex 3);
( v) a Ouzara Forest Owners Task Force to assess the position of Guzara forest owners and other forest users and prepare suitable institutional and financial arrangements to ensure the integration, participation and cooperation of the local people with future forest and forest industrial development, (see Annex 4); ( vi) pulping tests to coordinate the suitability of species proposed for planting with their industrial qua]ities, (see Annex 2);
(vii) a feasibility study to provide a firm base for determining the location, size, configuration and timing of the forest industries that could be established, (see Annex 5);
(viii) project preparation for the proposed phase two forest and forest industries projects, (see Annex 6); -4-
Project Management
7. The project headquarters would be established at Mansehra. The project will be under the management of the Chief Conservator of Forests assisted by a fulltime assistant project director of the rank of Senior DFO/ Conservator. The Project Director would be responsible for all forestry activities and, through the Secretary for Forests, to the Additional Chief Secretary, Planning and Development, for coordination of the work of the socio-economic study, pulping tests and feasibility study. The project director would also be assisted by a fulltime plantations specialist for the first three years, an administrative officer, a site assessment section, an inventory section, and supporting technical and administrative staff. A discussion of project organization and management and full details of project staff is contained in Annex 6.
8. Inputs from a number of other agencies and advisers would be required including the Pakistan Industrial Development Corporation, the Federal Inspector General of Forests, the Pakistan Forest Institute, the Department of Industry, NWFP, and various consultants who will be retained as part of the project. These activities will need coordinating.
9. A Project Development Committee would be formed, composed of trhe Additional Chief Secretary, P & D, NWFP as Chairman, the Inspector General of Forests, GOP, the Secretary for Forests, the Chief Conservator of Forests, the Secretary for Industry and Technical Director, Pakistan Industrial Development Corporation. The Chief Conservator of Forests, as project director, would be secretary. The committee would receive periodic reports of project progress and give directions to the project director for coordinating the various activities and inputs of the agencies discussed in para. 8.
Costs
10. Project costs are derived in the detailed physical requirements and cost tables in Table 2 and are summarized.below. Total costs are PRs. 25.14 million (US$2.57 million) including physical and price contingencies. Summar of PrJoect Cosrts (Amoumts in NiMla*)
Site Asseament .57 .06 Inventory 1.22 .12 Project HQ.., Pi] ot Plantations and Research Trials 8.14 .83 Training ad Fellowships 1.87 .19 OGsara Forest Owners Task Force .66 .07 Pulping Tests .131 .03 Feasibility Study 5.73 .59 Follow-Up Project Preparation 1.00 .10
Total Baseline Costs 19.50 1.99 Physical Contingencies .59 .06
Sub Total 20.09 2.05
Price Contingencies 5.05 .52
Total Project Costs 25.14 2.57
Foreign Exchange (55%) 13.33 1.36
1/ based on July, 1977 prices.
2/ Based on 10% for equipment and feasibility study. 3/ See Table 3, page 3 for detailed calculations. -6-
Financing
11. Financing of the project would be by 34% OM and 66% IDA credit. The project would maintain separate accounts Which would be audited in a asnner satisfactory to the Association.
Benefits of the Proposed Program 12. The benefits of the proposed credit per so cannot be quantififd because the activities included are essentially technical development which would lead to the implementation of a productive progrm. lowever, a preliminary analysis of the integrated program discussed in para. 4 has been developed in Annex 7 to demonstrate the overall profitability of thb proposed development. In financial terms, this indicates an internal rate of return of 11%, which is typical for proJoets of this type. The econonic rate of return would be about 14%. This does not include the benefits of establishing sound reforestation techniques which will have application in other areas, securing extensive watershed areas of the njor river systems to stable land use, and, the incremental employment generation in plantations, logging, pulp paper mill and ancillary industries. EAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESMENT PROJECT P in.g of Project Activitiel
Yeara Y 2 ear Year 4 er
- Site Assessment------Inventory
- Other Base Data for Feasibility Study 2 Training and Fellowships - _ _ _ - Foreign Special ists - plantations E E E - inventory otherMPd
- Scholarships - project manager - nursery-, ran3e,, officer senior forest manager Pilot Plantation Establishment/ _ L_A_
- PI an tinr, _ _ _ - _ _ , r - - Pulping studie-s - Research trials _ . - - _ _ - - _ _ _ _ _ - - _- _ - Genetic Improvement _ .__ _ _ - -- -
Industrial Feasibility Stud-Y
- Resource Study * . L - - Market & Industnry Study - Project Formalation & Review - Final Feasibility Studr7_
Ourzara Forest Owners Task Force
- Field Investi,ations ._ _- _ L _ _ _- - Recommendation & Imp]ementation
Proj,ect Preparation
- Forestry,, Project - Industrial Project
/ See Annex I ' See Annex 3 / See Annex 2 V/ See Arnex 5 7/ See Annex 4 1/ See Annex 6 P A K I S T A N
HAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECT DetaiUs of Physical Requirements and Costs
Units Requirements (Years) Unit Costs Costs (Years) (PRs'OOO) 1 2 3 4 5 PRs. 1 2 3 4 5 Tota]
SITE ASS_TSMT Capital Co.ta. Jeep SWB, and Trailer no. 1 95,000/unit 95 Laboratory Suipuent V/ Direct Loading Ba]ance n Oven n 1 Atomic Absorption Spectrometer n 1 200 Sundry Tools 2 Ooerating Costs: Ia Staff:ACF Field Survey Gd.17 1 1 17,000/year 27 17 Forest Ouard Ats" 1 2 2 4,000 " 8 8 Driver " 3 I 1 4,800 " 5 5 Peon & Messenger n 1 2 2 3,500 " 7 7 Laborers 2 2 3,500 " 7 7 PFIs Soils Chemist man years ¼ ¼ 18,000 n 5 5 lab. Technicn It 16,000 i 8 8 Draughtaman ½ ½ 16,000 n 8 8 Jeep Running Costs at 15,000 miles/year 000 miles 15 15 2/mile 30 30 Soil Bags, Tools Replacement 18 l1 and Mapping Ibterials 6/ Travelling Allo;7ances - 18 18 Sub Totals 434 131 565 FOREST INVENTORY Jeep Pick-up 95,000/unit 95 Staff: ACF Inventory O.17 no. 1 17,000/year 17 5 Field Crews oft 1 Rguge Forest Officer Gd.16 n 5 15,000 " 75 4 Foresters ad.5 n 20 6,600 " 132 1 Driver Gd.3 n 5 4,800 " 24 Photo Interpreters: w 2 for ½ yewr Gd.16 " 2 35,000 " 15 Photo Mapping Machine / Specialist Od.16 " 1 15,000 a 15 Dmughtsmen ad.:6 4 2 15,000 " 30 Clerical staff ad.5 "4 4,700 " 19 Specialist 1 500 000 M 500 Inventory 2 Joep Runing Costs 000 miles 60 2 mile 120 Supo~a1s, Stores, mplpin4 60 Travelling Allowances / 120 Sub-Totalsa,222
2/ Needed to complete soils analysis equipment in soils laboratory at PFI. 2/ Will receive initial short-course on sampling design and technique and classification system at PFI and soils survey of Pakistan. ];/ Serwice provided at PFI. W Seconded from Aerial Forest Inventory. i/ Specialist services would be required for 3-months only on basis of validation of existing data. Provision is included for 12 months in event further services are required. zsee Annex ]. 1 Based on PRs. 6,000/year for staff grades 16 to 19; PRs. 3,600/year for staff grades 5 to 15; PRs. 2,400/year for staff grades 1 to 4. P A K I S T A N HAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECT Details of Physical Requirements and Costs
Units Requirements (Years) Unit Costs Costs (Years) (PRs'OO0) 1 _ 2 3 4 5 (PRs* 1 2 3 4~ 5 Total PRDJECT HEADQUARTERS, PIIOT PLANTATIOINS AND RESEARCH TRIALS
Canital Costs 2 Project HQ Cffice 1,600 ft2./ no. I 90/ft 144 144 Project HQ Store 400 ftY/ no. 1 80/ft 2 32 32 Senior Staff Houses 1,500 ft'YJ,/ no. 3 100/ft2 450 450 2 Range Officers Hostel 2,ooo ft 3/ no. 1 90/ft 2 180 180 Range Officers liouse/Office 1,000 ft2L/ no. 1 90/ft 90 90 Forester/Forest Guards Hlostels 900 ft2Z/ no. 2 1 90/ft 2 162 81 243 5-ton Truck no. 1 165,000/unit 165 165 Jeeps, SIR 'r.Trailers no. 2 95,000/unit 190 190 Jeep Pick-up no. 1 95,000/unit 95 95 Refrigerators for Seed Storage no. 3 6,00 0/unit 18 18 Seed Testing Equipment set 1 4.000/set 4 4 Office Furniture, Equipment, HQ 2/ set 1 40,000/set 40 40 Cffice Furniture, Range Officers set 2 1 2,000/set 4 2 6 Telephone Installati nI HQ 2 2 Nursery Development: 2 Clearing and levelling, preparation of beds, paths, etc. at 125 md/acre md 250 250 12/md 3 3 6 Fencing acs 2 2 1,500/ac 3 3 6 Irrigation Equipment, including pump/ engine, tubing, spripklers set I 73,000/unit 73 73 Store shed 600 ft l 60/ft 36 36 Hand Tools set 1 1 3 3 6 Hand Sprayers no. 2 2 500/unit 1 1 2 Wleather Station] no. 1 10,000/unit 10 10 Rain Gauges/themuometers no. 6 100/unit 1 1 Sub-total 1,616 173 10 1,799
/ To be constructed by Forest Dept. on direct contract basis using standard designs. Drawings being prepared by FD. Land being purchased bv GONWFP. Assis.ant Project Manager, Forestry Specialist and Administrative Officer. i/ See Schedule 1. / Initially 2 acres in Year 1 increasing to 4i acres in Year 3. Land being purchased by GOMI*FT (4 acres) in contiguous hlock. ,/ Central station at nursery or project HQ site with rain gauges in sub-centers fbr providing basic data for assessing silvic. practices and developing fire-plan. P A K I S T A N HAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECT Details of Physical Requirements and Costs Unit Requirements (Years) Unit Costs Costs (Years)(PRs.OOO) 1 2 3 4 5 (PRs) 1 2 3 4 ' Tota I Operating Costs a]/ Nurserr: Seedling Production 000's 140 290 500 950 1,900 Soil and Sand at I lb./seedling and 50:50 mixture tons 60 130 230 430 labor for collecting/loading/unloading 860 at 3 md/ton md. 180 390 690 Transport 1,290 2,580 12/md. 2 5 8 16 31 5-ton loads at 12 miles/load miles 150 300 600 1,100 2,220 Polythene Tubes 3/mile I 1 2 3 7 Seed-local collection 60/1,000 8 17 30 57 124 lbs. 25 50 100 200 400 20/lb. Seed-imported (sma3l lots) 1 2 2 4 8 Fertilizers at 5 5 5 2 2 2 lbs./1,000 seedlings lbs. 700 1,450 2,500 4,750 9,500 4.75/lb. Insecticides and Special Compounds 3 7 12 23 45 1 2 3 4 5 Irrigation Operation at 3 4 6 hours/day for 6 200 days/year 600 600 1,200 1,200 1,200 15/hour Tools Maintenance and Stores 9 9 38 ]8 ]8 2 3 4 5 6 Labor for operations at 8 md/1,000 seedlings md. 1,120 2,320 4,000 7,600 15,200 Sub-Totals 12/md. 13 28 48 91 182 Plantations 45 79 129 223 418 (°Y4 acs. 150 350 650 1.250 2.450 Land preparation and pit digging 12md/ac. Hand carrying transp]ants 2 n " Planting 4 t n 18 " n ad. 2,700 6,300 21,700 22,500 44,100 12/md. 32 Plant Transport at 6,000 p1 ants/`hoad 75 140 270 529 over average 40 mile return distance miles 680 1,530 2,930 5,580 Fencing 11,100 3/mile 2 5 9 37 33 acs. 240/acre Area boundary Survey 36 85 156 300 588 at I md./acre md. 150 350 650 1,250 2,450 12/md. Beating Up in 2nd Year; 10% of area at 2 4 8 15 29 11 5% of planting and transport costs 2nd Year Tending at 3 md./acre - 2 4 247 - 450 1,050 1,950 3,750 12/md. - 5 Additional cost for research planting at 23 23 45 5 md./acre md. - 150 200 200 Sub-Totals 150 - 2 2 2 2 Access Tracks/Firebreaks: W 72 178 332 634 1,240 2,456 Initial formation at average density of 0.6 mi3es/]OO acres miles 1 2 4 8 15 12/ Based on 680 plants/acre plus 10% culling and 10% beating up. / Includes engine, pump, spray equipment operating and repair costs. 3 m. width Jeep Track/Fire line. PAKISTA N
HAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECT Detail a of Physical Requirements and Costs
Unit Requirements (Years) Unit Costs Costs (Years) (PRs.000) 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 14 TT)t al
Formation by hand labor at 3,200 md/miJe ad. 1,200 2,400 4,800 9,600 18,000 12/md. 14 29 58 315 236 Materials for bridges/calverts at PRs.4,000/mie 4,000/mile 4 8 16 32 60 Annual maintenance: 300 md/mile n- _ 300 300 700 1,500 12/md. 1 4 8 18 materials 400/mile 1 1 3 5 Sub-Total s 29 >3 Protection of Plaxitations Fence snaintenance, regulation of grass cutting, fire control and reporting pests and diseases at I md./acre ad. 150 500 1,150 2,400 4,850 12/ad. 2 6 34 29 58 Additiordcosts for small-scale research plots at 2nd/acre 60 80 80 100 I"I 1 1 3 Insecticides 2 3 4 S 6 Sub-Total 4 10 19 35 65 333 Overheads and Administration Staff Salaries: Assistant Project Manager Grade 18/19 no. 16/ 1 1 1 1 1 30,000/year 30 30 30 30 30 Specialist (Plantations & Genetics) n I/ 1 1 1 Range Officers Gradel7 n 1/ 3 3 3 3 3 15,500J/ 47 47 47 47 47 Foresters "5 n 6 6 6 6 6 6,600 n 40 40 40 40 40 Forest uards n I 6 6 6 8 8 4,ooo n 24 24 24 32 32 Administrative Officer n 17 n I 1 1 1 1 15,000 n 15 15 15 15 15 Accountant "33 1 1 1 1 1 1 7,700 U 8 8 8 8 8 Senior Clerk a 8 f 1 1 I 1 1 6,000" 6 6 6 6 6 Clerical Staff " 5 n 2 2 2 2 2 4,700 n 9 9 9 9 9 Drivers n 3 i 4 4 4 4 4 4,800" 19 19 19 19 39 n Assistant nI 1 1 1 1 1 3,800 4 4 4 4 4 NurseryChowkidar/Storekeeper I1 n 1 1 1 1 1 3,800 4 4 4 4 4 Feons and Cjewiers 1it 6 6 6 6 6 3,500 221 2) 21 23 21 Visiting PPI Specialists thF 6 6 6 6 6 19/ 3 Jeeps at 12,000 miles/year u es 36 36 36 36 36 27mile 72 72 72 72 72 5 Ton Truck, genera) running, 5,000 miles/year ft 5 5 5 5 5 3/ U1 25 15 15 15 25 Trvel Costs for visiting specia3ists 3,000/oa 4, 6 6 6 6 6 Office Ecpenses 20 m 15 15 15 15 15 Maintenance of Buildings 18 38 18 18 Travel Allowances for Project Staff -_ -Jo 100loo ItT Sub-Totals 435 453 453 461 461 2,263 T/ Includes Basic salary, compensatory, dearess, medical, recreation, and applicable house allowances. 16/ Posts of project director allows promotion in post from senior DPO to Conservator; includes responsibility allowance of Hls. 3,600/y r.. 1 ?ICosts included under training. To be selected and appointed on basis of qualification and aptitude for plantations development. 'U Technical back-up services provided by PPI whose salaries are paid from normal budget. LO/ See Schedule 1. P A 1 I S T A N
HAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECT Details of Physical Requirements and Costs Unit Requirements (Years) Unit Costs Costs (Years) (PRs.000) 1 2 4 (PRs) 1 2 3 4 _ iTotal- TRAINING AND FELXIMWHIPS Li/ Plantations~ Specialist n°.,-22 ' 1 1 500,000/year 500 500 500 Inventor-y Special ist ofI Other Specialists mtRs I I 1 70,000/m.m 70 70 70 Scholarships: n i3p Project Manager 2 2 36,000/trip 36 36 Senior Management Officer o w 1 20,000 n 20 Nursery Superintendent i 26/ 2 2 36,000/ " 36 36 Sub-Totals 572 556 606 70 70 1,87h GUZARA FOREST OWERS TASK FORCE Professional staff of Forest Officer, Economist, Sociologist and Co-operative Specialist 30 30 1,750!m.m 53 53 Travelling, incidental field and office expenses, including clerical staff time 42 42 Study Thurs days 60 60 400/day 24 24 Air Fares 2]/ 1 1 15,000/fare 15 15 External consul tanay - Hire Charges mons 3 3 145,000/m.m 135 135 Subsistence days 90 90 400/day 36 36 Air Fares 2 1 15,000/fare 30 15 Sub-Totals 335 320 655 PULPING TESTS Felling, Extraction, Transport and Shipping of sample 30 Fees 200 Attendance at Tests by Pakistan Specialist: Subsistence for 3 months and Air Fares 70 local Costs of Report Writing - 3 months _ Sub-Totals 305 305 PROJECT PREPARATION 200 800 1,000 FEASIBILITY STUDY L§/ 2.300 4.000 6.300 LI/ Internationally recruited. See Job description and qualifications specifications in Annex 3. 2/ Expected to be required for initial 3-months, provision included for 1-year in event this is required. Costs shown under Inventory. 2/Disciplines ±1exible but would likely include entomologist/pathologist/fire plan/follow-up of geneticist. / 2 man-months in Years I and 3, based on PRs.15,000 air fares and travel expenses of PRs.350/day to be arranged in consultation with Plantations Specialist. 25/ 1 man-month in Year 2 based on PRs. 10,000 air fares and travel expenses of PRs.350/day to be arranged in consultation with Plantat-ons Speciarlst. w Pl2 man-months in Years I and 2 based on PRs.15,000 air fares and travel eipenses of PRss350/day to be arranged in consltation with Plantations Specialist. 27 Provision for unidentified additional project reparation activities; e.g. o1oing training, commuications and water studies, etc. / See detailed costs in Annex 5, which include l physical contingencies. (IRs. g70,000). Table 2 Schedule 1
PAKISTAN
HAZAAL FORESTRY PRB-INVESTMENT PROJECT
Office Furniture and Equipment - Project BQs.
PRs.
10 Desks/Tables 10, OOO 15 Chairs 1,500 6 Cupboards 5,000 6 Cabinets 5,000 Typewriter, 18" 5,400 of , 12" 2,100 Safe 1,000 Calculators 1,000 Files, small equipment, sundry 4,000 Mapping Table 1,000 Map Cabinet 2,000 Carpets and Curtains 2,000
Total 4o_Doo
Annual Office Expenses - Project HQs.
Telephone 2,000 Lighting and Heating 6,000 Stationery 4,000 Sundry 3,000
Total 15,000 HIZARA FORESiRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECT
Sunmmary of ProJect Costs b TyDe of Ekpenditure (US$'000)
Baseline Physical Price Total Less Duties and Net F.E. Costs Costs Contingencies Sub-Totas Contingencies Project Taxes Project % of Amount Costs Costs Net Costs
A. Capital Costs a-b Buildings, Land levelling, water supply 129 1 130 14 144 144 ]7 24 c-e Vehicles and equipment 96 3 99 7 106 12 94 89 84
B. Oreratin_ Costs a-b Salaries and Wages 521 - 521 170 691 - 691 - - c-e Office supplies, stores and vehicle operating 239 2239 70 309 22 287 50 144 C. Other Items a. Consulting services 725 59 784 186 970 970 92 892 b. Expatriate salaries ]53 - 15 29 182 182 lOO 182 c. Training courses 25 - 4 29 29 100 29 d. Follow-up project preparation 102 2102 35 137 137
Totals 1,990 63 2,033 515 2,568 34 2,534 53 1,335 PAUSTAN
HAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECT
Project Base]ine Costs by Category and Components (U$ '000) Project HQ Pilot Training Ouzara Forest Pulping Feasibility FolloPw-Up I Site Forest Plantations and Owners' Task Tests Study Project Base]ine Physical Contingencies Assessment Invenrary and Research Fe] 2owships Force Preparation Totals % Amount Trials A. Capita] Coats a. Buildings 120 120 b. Land leve]ling and water suppl ies 9 9 c. Vehicles 10 I 10 10 46 66 d. Office equipment, too]s and technical equipment 7 7 e. Other equipment 21 2 23 1D 2
B0 Operating Costs a. Salaries and allowances 16 45 168 15 244 - b. Wages 1 - 275 1 277 - c. Office supplies and - maintenance 15 15 d. Other suppl ies 4 6 130 140 - e. Vehic]e operating and - transport 6 13 59 4 2 84 - - C. Other Items a. Consultancies 51 21 40 28 585 725 10 b. Expatriate salaries 59 25353 - - c. Training courses 27 25 d. Fol l ow-up project X preparation 102 - 102
58 125 831 191 67 31 585 102 1,990 63
2/ Source: See detailed costs sheet in Table 2. ]/ 10% for feasibility study. PAKISTA.N
HAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECT Price Contingency Calculations (US$ 000)
Anticipated Percentage Out)ay Annual Costs (including Physical Contingencies) by yebyer 1 2 3 e' 5 1 2 3 a 4 Totals
A. Capital Costs a. Buildings 83 17 100 20 120 b. Land levelling and water supplies 92 8 9 1 10 Sub-Totals 2/ 109 20 ] 130 Price contingency factor- .09 .19 .29 Price contingency amount 10 4 14 c. Vehicles 100 6 66 d. Office equipment, tools and technical equipment 100 8 8 e. Other equipment 97 3 24 1 25 Sub-Totals 2/ 9 Price contingency factor - .075 .24 Price contingency amount 7 7
B. Operating Costs a. Salaries and Allowances 39 20 13 14 14 95 49 32 34 34 244 b. Wages 3 7 314 26 50 8 19 39 72 139; 277 Sub-Totals 2/ 103 68 71 Il0 173 -Z Price contingency factor- .09 .19 .29 .39 .50 Price contingency amount 9 13 41 87 170 c. Office supplies and maintenance 10 22 22 23 23 2 3 3 15 d. Other supplies 10 10 12 24 44 14 14 15 34 63 140 e. Vehicle operating and transport costs 35 15 16 17 17 30 14 15 717 84 Sub-Totals 2/ 46 31 315 847 Price contingency factor- .075 .)55 .24 .32 .42 Price contingency amount 4 5 8 IL 36 70
C. Other items
a. Consultancies 10 36 52 1 1 78 282 408 8 8 784 b. Expatriate Salaries 33 33 34 51 51 51 153 c. Training courses 46 39 15 11 10 4 25 d. Follow-up proJect preparation 20 50 50 _1 51 __- __- Sub-Totals 140 343 514 59 8 1,64
Price contingency actorun .09 .19 .29 .39 .50 Price contingency amount .213 65 149 23 4 254
Total Price Contingencies 43 87 177 81 127 515
L/ Based on July, 1977 costs with anticipated start of project in January, 1978. 2/ Civil works, salaries, consultancies: 9% (77-79) and 8% (80-82), vehicles, equipment, materials :7.5%( " ) and 7% ( ). ANNEX 1 Page 1 PAKISTAN
HAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECT Site Assessment and Inventory
Introduction
1. The areas provisionally selected for intensive plantations development to provide pulpwood to the proposed pulp and paper mill operation are summarized below. These areas are within a 30 mile radius of the proposed mill site and are shown in Map 1. The areas stated are less than work plan estimates and are con- sidered to be conservative. An additional chir pine area in the Haripur division would also be available, although this is considered less fertile; see footnote 4/.
Summary of Estimated Chir Pine Zone Areas For Intensive Plantations Development (thousands of acres)
Forest Divisions Hazara Existing Forests: Siran Tribal Kagan Galis Total Forest Reserve 1/ 16.5 11.5 - - 28.0 Guzara Forests - Chir selection w.c. 11.0 2.5 2.5 16.0 - Protection w.c. 2/ 6.0 2.0 3.5 2.5 14.0
Sub-totals 33.5 16.0 6.0 2.5 58.0
Area available for Plantations Development
Undemarcated Guzara 3/ without tree cover 90.0
Gross area for selecting final Project Area 148.0 4/ w.c. = working circle.
1/ An additional area of Resumed Lands in Giddarpur and Shergarh of approximately 6,500 acres and 6,000 acres respectively are available for inclusion in the project area. 2/ Indicates stocking density is less than 60%; does not preclude production forestry. 3/ About 2,000 acres of this area is reported to contain some existing chir pine. 4/ Chir pine areas in the Haripur division, about 40 miles distant from Mansehra, available for inclusion in the project area include: Forest Reserve 6,000 acres if It (Protection) 10,000 Guzara Selection 8,500 " " Protection 9,000 and an unquantified area of undemarcated Guzara forests without tree cover. ANNEX 1 Page 2
2. The final areas to be allocated to pulpwood production will depend upon variables including:
(a) Size and product mix of the pulp/paper mill.
(b) Proportion of existing Chir pine forests to be allocated for sale as saw-timber.
(c) Possibility of managing some of the Chir pine plantations on the basis of producing both saw-timber and pulpwood on, say, a 35-year rotation with intermediate pulpwood thinnings.
(d) Proportions of hardwood and softwood in total pulpwood supply.
3. On the basis of possible pulp/paper mill alternatives discussed in the main report, the area required for a sustained supply of pulpwood, assuming a pure pulpwood rotation management, would be about 50,000 acres of pine and 35,000 acres of hardwoods. These areas can be found within the gross area and can be expanded to meet changes in size of pulpmill and the alternative forest management objectives discussed in para 2.
4. In order to make selections of areas with maximum growth potential and for choice of species to be grown, a detailed site assessment of the total area will be needed - see para 6.
5. There will be a trade-off between allocating most of the existing Chir pine mature forest to pulpwood to enable an early start-up of the mill or, retain- ing this timber for marketing as saw-timber and delaying mill start-up until the new plantations are ready for harvesting. In order to assess the implications involved, a detailed forest inventory will be needed. Preliminary analysis of the present data indicates that, assuming pulp mill start-up in 1984, the bulk of the existing Chir pine forests would need to be set aside for pulpwood to ensure an adequate flow of raw material. However, it is emphasized that no reliable assessment can be made of mill timing and the allocation of the existing pine forests until a complete inventory has been carried out. This is discussed in para 7.
Site Survey and Classification
6. (a) Background. Having regard to the physical limitations of the forests and the requirements for wood supplies and grazing to meet local demands,l/ it is necessary to identify, map and classify lands available and suitable for pulpwood plantations. Site classification involves compilation and interpretation of data from existing records and from new surveys; the data refer to topography, climate, soil and vegetation. The object is to tabulate and map the project area into
1/ Provision for local requirements is discussed in Annex . ANNEX 1 Page 3
major classes of environment and accessibility; where possible, environmental classes are related to actual or predicted tree growth (for both indigenous and exotic species). Site classification is undertaken on a more refined scale than that used for example in establishing the existing Site Quality Classes for Chir pine. The site survey should be coordinated with the inventory of existing Chir pine forests.
(b) Soil sampling has been carried out by the Soils Survey of Pakistan in part of the area in collaboration with the NWFP Aerial Forest Inventory project. The results of this work would be incorporated and additional sampling taken as needed and on areas not covered by the Survey.
(c) Detailed Features. The site assessment survey would identify in detail areas suitable for industrial plantations and correlate these with projected industrial requirements and the requirements for local wood consumption and grazing area. Although the gross area for the development program has been selected, it is still necessary to undertake a site classification so that the result of pilot plantations and research may be extrapolated with confidence.
(d) The site survey should include information from three main sources. Firstly, the project area should be mapped by ownership, land use and accessibility/roadability to determine possible plantation areas. Secondly, all available climatic data should be compiled for the general district and for the specific project area; this includes monthly means and ranges for rainfall, temperature and humidity from as many meteorological stations as possible. (Prescriptions for additional stations and rain gauges are given in the section on the central nursery - see Annex 2).
(e) Thirdly, soil samples should be taken at a sampling intensity of 1 soil pit per 250 acres in the defined plantation areas requiring a maximum of 600 pits in the entire 150,000 acre area.
(f) At a sampling rate of 10 pits per week, this would require 1-1-1/2 years. A slow initial rate is expected because of the unfamiliarity of local staff with this type of work and because of the need for detailed description of geology and topography/aspect, which have critical influence on chir pine growth, plus estimates of current crop growth, age and yield (to correlate with site classification). The initial sampling, laboratory analysis and data acquisition/interpretation/ reporting is expected to take 1-1/2-2 years. The intensity and rate of sampling could be increased in subsequent years to accommodate new areas or to refine the classification of existing areas. ANNEX 1 Page 4
The main features described for each sample include:
(i) Location (latitude, longitude, altitude, local name).
(ii) Topography and aspect.
(iii) Vegetation type including estimate of chir pine growth where applicable.
(iv) Land use.
(v) Climatic data with indication of nearness of source.
(vi) Visual description of soil profile including depth and color of main horizons, down to underlying strata where possible.
(vii) Mechanical analysis by sedimentation to estimate proportions of sand, silt and clay.
(viii) Chemical analysis to determine pH, organic content, and content of N, P, K, Mg and Ca. There is no current evidence of deficiency of trace elements but these could be analyzed in the laboratory.
(g) Site mapping would be on a scale of 1/25,000, providing soil maps, integrated climatic diagrams and base management maps. They would be clearly related to the inventory of existing stock (see para 7 below).
(h) Administration. The site assessment program would require cooperation between project staff (responsible mainly for field sampling and description) and PFI staff (responsible for mechanical and chemical analyses of soil). The field survey team would be led by an ACF with two forest guards, a driver, two peons and two local laborers. Laboratory analyses would be conducted by the PFI Soil Chemist (1/4 time) and PFI technician (1/2 time). All data would be compiled by the ACF and mapped by a PFI draughtsman (1/2 time).
(i) Both the ACF and the Soil Chemist should spend time in the field and laboratory with staff of the Soil and Geological Surveys of Pakistan to standardize sampling, analysis and description as far as possible. Depending on the experience of the ACF and Soil Chemist it may be desirable to request for 3 - 6 months the services of a foreign researcher, possibly a younger doctoral graduate with 1/ practical experience in establishing a soil analysis laboratory. -
1/ E.G. a graduate of Reading or Rothamsted having some experience of tropical soils whose services could possibly be supplied through the U.K. Overseas Development Ministry technical assistance programs. ANNEX 1 Page 5
(j) Estimated costs of the initial site survey are PRs. 565,000 and are summarized in detail in the main report, Table 2.
Inventory
7. (a) An inventory will be needed for the existing Chir pine forests in the project area to enable decisions to be made with respect to: -
(i) The distribution of the timber volumes between pulpwood and other uses, to be made by GOP and GONWFP.
(ii) On the basis of (i), the timing of pulpmill construction date and start-up, in which it is probable that external financial agencies would be involved.
(b) Present inventory data is contained in the different working plans for the project area forests. This is based on field measurements within individual compartments and expresses total over-bark volumes. It does not indicate the distribution of total volume between tree sizes and log size classes; nor is any measurement made of defects or bark percentages, which is essential information needed for making the management decisions discussed in para (a).
(c) The Aerial Forest Inventory project is currently undertaking an updating of the project area forests based on Working Plan methods. Sampling for bark %, incidence of defect and log size assortment was introduced into the work schedules in February 1977. The updated data will provide useful additional information.
(d) The existing data will need to be examined in detail to determine whether it can be used as a basis for compiling data to reliably assess:
(i) The distribution of the standing volume by diameter (DBH) classes.
(ii) The distribution of the standing volume by Log Size classes.
(iii) Adjustment of the volumes at (i) and (ii) for defect %.
(iv) Adjustment of the volumes at (i) and (ii) for bark %.
(v) Distribution of standing volumes between Forest Reserve and Guzara forests.
(d) If it transpires that existing data is insufficient to provide this information, a decision will need to be taken as to whether:
(i) Further field measurements within individual compartments can be economically made to bring the total data to the required standard.
(ii) A new inventory, based on forest type maps made from existing aerial photography, would be more economical. Field data would be gathered on a sampling intensity to be determined by statistical method to give results of sufficient accuracy for the basic management decisions to be taken as outlined in para (a). ANNEX 1 Page 6
(e) Administration. The inventory work would require cooperation between project staff and FD Inventory Section, who would supply the specialist staff. The work is expected to take one year and would be under the direct responsibility of an Inventory Specialist (ACF), with five field crews each in the charge of a Range Forest Officer, and support services of two photo-interpreters, two draughtsmen, a photo-mapping machine specialist and clerical staff. Provision is included for an international inventory specialist for an initial period of three months to assist FD Inventory Section to review the existing data and make decisions under paras (c) and (d) above. If these results are positive, and an internationally acceptable inventory can be based on existing inventory data, the Inventory Section could then complete the remaining work. In the event option (d) (ii) is required, a full 12-month appointment of the inventory specialist would be necessary. This latter eventuality is provided for in the cost estimates.
(f) Since the results of the inventory will be required for defining the timing of the industrial feasibility study, this activity would be completed in the first year of the project.
(g) Estimated costs are PRs 1.2 million and are tabulated in Table 2 of the main report.
(h) Terms of Reference for the inventory specialist are contained in Appendix 1.
Other Base Data for Feasibility Study
8. During the first two years of the project, the Project Director would be collating and assembling other relevant data required for the feasibility study scheduled for years 2 and 3 of the project. (See Annex 5 for Terms of Reference and additional data needed). The Project Director would consult with other interested agencies, (e.g., PIDC, PFI, Department of Industries, NWFP), in preparing this aspect of the work program. Additional staff would be made available for these duties on secondment from NWFP Forest Department. ANNEX 1 Appendix 1 Page 1
Terms of Reference for Inventory Specialist Consultant
The present inventory data for the Chir pine forests of the project area is contained in the individual 10-year working plans and is based on total volume assessment of individual compartments. This data requires to be assessed for its reliability and suitability for basing management decisions for the allocation of existing forests to pulpwood and the size and timing of the proposed pulpmill.
Stage 1. As a first stage, the consultant, in collaboration with FD Inventory Section and Working Plans Officer, would assess the present data for:
(a) Completeness; ensuring all standing timber to be included in the project area is included.
(b) Reliability for assessing standing volumes to 95% confidence.
(c) Suitability for undertaking volume compilation to provide data on:
( i) distribution of standing volume by DBH classes;
( ii) distribution of standing volume by Log Size classes;
(iii) adjustment of volumes at (i) and (ii) for defect %;
( iv) adjustment of volumes at (i) and (ii) for bark %.
( v) distribution of standing volume between Forest Reserves and Guzara forests;
( vi) Forecasts of sustainable timber supplies under a number of alternative management systems to be defined after preliminary study.
(d) In the event data is insufficient for compilation as under (c) above, determine the advisability of taking additional field measurements so the supplemented existing data can be used to provide information under (c) above.
(e) Assuming results are positive under (a), (b), (c) or (d), designing the additional sampling method and format for data presentation for FD. Inventory Section to complete the outstanding work described in (c) above. ANNEX 1 Appendix 1 rage z
Stage 1 is expected to take three months work in the field, including two weeks report writing. The report would summarize the activities covered and set out the format in which the final inventory data would be presented and recommend updating procedures for the future.
Stage 2. In the event that findings in Stage 1 are negative, the consultant, in collaboration with FD inventory staff, would proceed with a new inventory, based on forest type maps prepared from existing 1/20,000 aerial photography. The inventory would follow the accepted standards employed in this type of work and be designed to give data as in (Stage 1 (c)) above to a degree of accuracy suitable for making the necessary decisions for allocations of wood to end uses and for pulp mill feasibility and timing.
In the event of Stage 2 becoming operative, it is expected the consultant would continue his assignment for additional nine months to finalize this work. PMLTS~ ~ ~ ~ ~~NNX
HAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECT Pilot P]antations, Reseqrch T and Pulipja Tests
Sae
A. Brief Reviw of PIantaticas and Forestry Research Choice of 3pecies 1 Nurseries1
Yieldd Litation 1-3
B. ProJect Comvogat Pilot Plantations 3
Nurery Research 41- 5
lslblisa nt and Cultussl Techniques 5 - 6 Genetic Trials 7
Species Trials 7 Provenance Trials 7 - 8 Progey Testing 8
Seed Production 8
Seed Trees and Seed Stands 8 - 9 Seed Orchards 9 Annual Phasing of Nursery and Plantations Program 10 iNagMmat 10 Cask 10
Rbod Pulp Test. I0 - 11
1. Isferen"e 2. Climatic Data 3. TieldADta 4. Pssdble Species ad Proveace. for Trials 5. Calculation of Plat Requirenents for Nursery Techniques 6. Calculation of Plant Requirementa for Cultural Techniques 7. Calmilation of Plant Requirements for Gentic Triala 8. Anual. Phasng of Nursery Program 9. Arnua Phasing of Plating Program 10. Suary of Anml Planting and Nurswy Prosans 11. Local and Scientific Names -Of Sesoted Tme Specie -AKISTAN Page 1 HAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECT Pilot F]antationis, Reseairch TriaLs and PU]pInR Taste
A. BRS R F PLAFROMMS Dps
Choice of sRecies for plantation ]. Within Hazara district many species have been used in streetside and streamside plantings, largely for firewood and fodder. These have not been compared systematically for either purpose, nor for pole or sawnwood production. No attention has been given to seed source within any of these species.
2. For plantations on a larger scale, several species have been used in the FAO/World Food Program project, including particularly P. roxburRhtii Robina pseudoacacia, Ailanthus altissima and Eucalyptus camaldulensis.L2 Sixteen thousand acres are reported to have been planted but the location /3 and'survival percentage of these is not clear. Most planted trees seen by the Mission members had been planted with the plastic bags still around the roots. Some species and provenances have been raised at a poor, flooded nursery at Abbottabad by FRI and a formal trial of chir pine prbvenances was planted near Mansehra. For rigorous testing improved nursery stock will be essential.
Nurseries
3. Within the World Food Program excellent production of fruit trees and other hardwoods was observed. However, the nursery techniques for pines were inadequate with a poor soil mixture that allowed little aeration or irrigation and no root penetration. Nutrient content appeared low but no fertiliser was applied. Watering was done by hand from watering cans fitted with coarse spray-nozzles ("roses"); the amount of water reaching individual plants was inadequate even if it had been able to penetrate the soil in the plastic bags. Considerable research and development is necessary to determine suitable nursery techniques for use in a commercial afforestation scheme.
Yield estimation 4. in preparing a plantation program and a pulpmill proposal it is necessary to obtain estimates of wood yield but no formal sample plot statistics are available for plantations in Hazara. Many volume tables for different species have been prepared in Pakistan (see Appendix 1 ) but little informationon yield hs been published. Many temporary and permanent sample plots have been measured recently in natural chir pine forests and data are bein; processed; however, at present the original Indian yield tables for chir piDn (Howard, 1926), blue pine (Champion et 1., 1929) and deodar (Champion and Mahendru, 1933) are used (by PFI staff, not by many local forest officers) and the post-partition updated publications from FRI, Dehra Dun, are not available in Pakistan (e.&. chir pine: Seth, Dabral and Lala, 1972; silver fir: Chaturvedi, 1973a; blue pine (kail): Chaturvedi, 1973b).
5. Extracts from several sources are given in Appendix 3. With the exception of a plantation at Supkhar, India, these are all from limples in naturally regenerating forests (sometimes of mixed species) with VadDus ages, stockings, amounts of damage and thinnings; nevertheless tiey suggest that mean annual increments for total yield of chir pine woos (uderbark to 2 inches diameter) average approximately 100 cu.ft/acre (7 m /ha> to 20-25 years on good quality sites. Data from sample plots in Murree UiLUs slightly 1ar , _l al w yield dat! are contained ih 4Apendices 1,2 and S. filso AG"iA &oA&&U, A2egculMYj ea pOpLal8n /Inthe Daur and Kunhar watersheds. Page 2
exceed this and these sites are believed inferior to many of the sites in Hazara District (most of which are placed in the Chir Quality Class 1).
6. Yields from well managed plantations at 8 x 8 or 10 x 10 ft with little or no thinning could be expected to be superior because of the better initi4i growth obtained from vigorous nursery stock, good establishment and weed control, andthe more uniform distribution of growth to all crop trees w.th no thinning. Yields should approach 120 cu.ft/acre (8.4 m3tha) at O0-2S years. On the basis of current yield tables, the mean diameter at this age would approximate 8-9 inches overbark, approximately 7-8 inches underbark at breast height. A carefully documented 0.5 acre plot at Supkhar (Madhya Pradesh, Indk, south of the natural range of chir pine and at 2,280 ft altitude but still subject to frost) planted at 63x 6 ft spacing in 1907, yielded an average3 MAI of 171 cu .ft/acre (12.0 m /ha) at 20 years and 174 cu.ft/acre (12.2 m /ha) at 60 years with mean diameters of 5.5 inches and 12.6 inches (see Appendix 3).
7. The use of seed from carefully selected provenances, s*ed stands and seed trees should improve yields by a further 5-10% for plantations established from the third or fourth year. Another 10-15% gain may be obtainable from selective breeding for plastations established from the tenth year.
8. These yields obtained and predicted are summarised thus:-
Type of forest and source of information MAI to 20 years DM
cu.ft/ac. *3/ha oc, laches
Natural forests Indian yield tables, class 1 88 6.2 5.8 Murree Hills, PFI 1976 data, class 1 103 7.2 5.3 Razara prediction (PFI assess better than Murree) 110 7.7 6.0 Plantations Predict Hazara with good stock and techaiques 120 8.4 8.0 Predict Hazara with seed stands/seed trees 125 8.7 8.5 Predict Hazara with seed orchards 140 9.8 9.0 Supkhar 171 12.0 5.5
These are average underbark figures for the whole project area. It is recognised that the considerable variation between geological, pedological and climatic characters that occur within the area will cause parallel variation in wood yleld (on both a per-tree and a per-acre basis). These variations inltensify the need for a detailed site survey of the project area. Bark thickness itself varies with site and genotype but particularly with age; up to 25 years it approximates 20%.
9. In view of chir pine's adaptation to local conditions of high and low temperature, rainfall distribution, fire and soil type, it is possible that no other coniferous species will compete with its growth rate. Nevertheless other,exotic species may yield better and should be tested under good management. iTLi Page 3
10. Arising from this review, it is possible to consider a joint approach to timber and pulp production in a single, well-managed project. Long-fibred pulp may be produced initially on a 20-25 year clear-fell rotation to meet the initial requLirements of a pulpuill; mean annual icrenents (MAI) should increase from a conservative estimate of 98 cu.ft/acre (7 m'/ha) initially to 126 ou.ft/acre (9 m3/ha) when improved species, provenancea and/or trees are available. This pulp phase should merge into a pulp-plus-timber phase with timber obtained from a 35-40 year rotation to capitalize on maximum MAI's (140-154 cu.ft/acre; 10-11 m3/ha). Thinnings and smallwood would still be used for pulp.
II. 1hile the production of long-fibred coniferous pulp is desirable in the Reserve forests, faster-growing hardwood species will be more attractive to Guzara ouera. Although many hardwood trees have been planted for fuel or fodder along roadsides and streacsides virtually no pure plantation blocks have been established and no yield assessments have been made. However, with eareful ohoice of speopes/ provenances (especially among eucalypts), with good nursery stock and with efficient plantation techniques, mean annual increments of 168-210 cu.ft/acre (12-15 m /ha) should be obtainable on 10-12 year rotations. It will be necessary to convince Guzara owners of the feasibility of this proposal by demonstration in well-managed pilot plantations. B. COMPCNENTS
12. A central core of the proposed project is a progrm of pilot plantations supported by intensive research into nursery and plantation techniques, by genetic improvement, and by tests of the suitability of the raw material for pulping.
Pilot p] antations
]3. (a) The proposed program includes the establishment of plantations of pine and hardwoods (poplars and a-der on wet sites near streams, eucalypts and other species in drier sites - see Appendix 4 for suggested species); the plantations would be established in both Reserved Forest and in Guzara Forests with emphasis on hardwoods in the treeless Guzaras to demonstrate their fast growth and economic advantages to private owners.
(b) The planting program would increase annually over the 5-year period from a modest start with current techniques and locally collected seed of chir, eucalypt and poplar to a final annual target approximately that of the full commercial afforestation phase. By the third year improved nursery techniques should yield consistently better stock and improved planting techniques should yield better survival and initial growth. Throughout the period trials of introduced species and provenances and the provision of improved seed should continue.
(c) Pilot plantations sho-ald be located in compact blocks on land that is typical of the major areas to be afforested. Without prejudging the results of the site survey and classification, it should be possible to select two or three different site types (different in geology, soil, altitude and/or aspect), accessibl.e to the project headquarters and central nArsery, and with sufficient land in adjacent Reserve and Guzara Forests. The proposed planting program would thus be approximately as follows :- Sm!gezz_g]otiantation bB s c sjtetandyaryp (acres)
_____ 1~2 2 3 4 Toto Chir pine Site type 1 100 100 200 kW 800 (Reserve) Site type 2 lO0 l00 200 400 800 Site type 3 100 200 400 700 Hardwoods Site type I (drY) 50 50 100 200 loQ 800 ,Totals Site type 2 wet 150 3X ° 18 20 4i8 ANNEX 2 Pare 4
Nursery Research
J4.(a)General. Current nursery practice is poor, particularly for chir pine, and contributes to poor field survival and growth. The present soil mixture and watering regimes are not conducive to balanced root development. Some plants have virtually no lateral roots and those that are present are concentrated in the upper few millimetres of soil; others have a tap root that has reached the bottom of the polythene bag and curled around, thus predisposing the plant to a permanently deformed root system in the field. A thorough program of nursery research is desirable to determine economic techniques for the production of rigorous planting stock at the right time of year.
(k) Almost all nursery operations are subject to significant variation and these variations have impotant effects on the size, vigour and survival of planting stock. For each operation a range of techniques should be tested in designed, comparative experiments. It is most convenient to locate all nursery research in one central nursery but a satellite sub- station is provided in case a separate afforestation area is located in which some conditions differ. The main centre can also supply plants for the pilot plantations and, later, it can be expanded to form the main commercial nursery. Provision is made for staff, accommodation and equipment, including vehicles and irrigation system; the irrigation system would comprise a diesel engine (e..&. Lister 3 cylinder with life of 6-10 years), a pump and a conventional, manually-moved, aluminium pipe and sprinkler system providing approximately 0.30 inches water equivalent per plant per day. Enquiries of European suppliers indicate that total capital cost (f.o.b.) for a 5 acre nursery would be approximately PRs. 63,000. Provision is also made for a meteoroJogical station to be set up in the central nursery (temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind records) with six satellite rain gauges in the major site types.
(c) In the discussions below it is assumed that all planting stock will be tubed. Bare-rooted plants of pine are known to be unsuitable in Hazara and bare-rooted hardwoods are also unlikely to be successful. In the calculations of nursery requirements a standard pot size is assumed although nursery research may indicate that different species require different tube sizes. No allowance is made for the small area of sowing beds since all pot requirements have been rounded up. All pots should be covered with X inch medium gravel to prevent hardening of the soil surface. Most seeds should be sown at a depth equal to 2-3 times the seed diameter.
(d)The derivations of the numbers of plants required for nursery experiments are given in Appendix 5.
(e)Sowing time. This is normally related to the required size of planting stock and to the conditions (rainfall, temperature and insolation) at the time of sowing. Planting may be practised in winter or in the monsoon and there is a range of sowing times that could produce suitable planting stock.
(f) Soil mixture and sand fraction. Various mixtures of soil, sand and humus should be tested to obtain sufficient aeration, irrigation and root development. Soil should be collected from chir forest to ensure mycorrhization. Humus is generally undesirable in pine nurseries because it increases damping-off disease and may transport spores of needle disease (Lophodermium). In tests of soil mixture a standard NPK fertilizer could be added. AUA Z Page 5
Ct) Fertilizers. Trials of N,P,K and Mg at 3 levels each and trace elements (boron, copper and zinc at one level) are proposed since nursery fertilization costs little yet has a significant effect on plant growth. It is also necessary to determine the frequency of application of fertilizers.
(h) Bag/tube size. Bags have commonly been used in Hazara because it was believed that tubes lose soil and damage the plants in transit. Elsewhere this has not been found true; open tubes minimise root curling and also allow root pruning where necessary. A range of sizes should be compared; large tubes may produce larger root systems but the costs of transporting soil to the nursery and tubed plants to the field are high. Long narrow tubes encourage deep rooting which is suitable for naturally tap-rooted species.
(i) Root pruning. This is practised to stimulate lateral development of roots and the production of a dense, fibrous root system. Tubed stock may be root pruned at various times of the year (depending on the size of tube and whether roots have reached the bottom). Comfion methods are to lift each tube individually and cut the protruding roots with a hand-knife or to prune all the tubes in a nursery section by a long-knife or wire.
(j) Watering regime. Normally the nursery would be watered by the irrigation system and distribution rates can be calculated from knowledge of the nursery area, pump capacity, tube diameter, sprinkler density and hours of operation (see e.g. Paul, 1972). However, water requirements vary between species and trials of actual amounts are required, using measured amounts applied by hand.
15. Development of establishment and cultural techniques
(a) General. Current practice requires replacement of 25% of all planted stock in the first year, 10% in the second year and a few trees in the third year. Later deaths or poor growth may also be expected from trees planted with the nursery tubes in place around the roots. This is an expensive waste of nearly one-third of all nursery stock plus the supervision and labour of replanting. Also an improvement to 95% survival in the first year would effectively reduce the rotation age by 1-2 years. An equal reduction may be caused by improved initial growth (in the slow portion of the sigmoid growth curve) obtained from better ground preparation and post- planting cultural treatments.
(b) Throughout the field trials it is recommended that two provenances of chir pine be used to minimise the chance of using a source that is not typical of the species. The derivations of plant requirements are given in Appendix 6. Allowance is made for a representative range of experiments at a Sub-Station in a different area if one is identified. ANE 2 Pa,e 6
(c) Ground preparation. Excavated pits of different sizes should be com- pared with simple crowbar holes; different reponses may be detected on dif- ferent soil types.
(d) Spacing. The study of spacing effects is a long-term project but it should be initiated early in the program since initial spacing affects per acre costs and yields, especially in plantations that may be managed on a long rotation for timber. Ideally spacing studies would be coordinated with thinning studies but, at this stage, thinning trials cannot be initiated (until pilot plantations reach possible thinning age, although thinning may not be necessary in pine pulpwood plantations).
(e) Spacing trials may be laid out with systematic designs (Nelder's cir- cular or "clinal" designs) but these are somewhat difficult to lay out and analyse. Randomised complete block designs with equal plot areas (i.e. unequal numbers of tree per plot for the different spacings) are recommended.
(f) Altitudinal effects. These are particularly pronounced in chir pine and a trial of extreme altitudinal provenances on a range of plantation altitudes and aspects is recommended.
(g) Size of planting stock. Size of plants and the root/shoot balance are important in survival and early growth particularly where long dry seasons occur or where weed competition is severe. In many afforestation programs plants are too large and a range of sizes from 20-40 cm should be tested.
(h) Fertilization. N, P and K applied soon after planting may have major effects, depending on the site type, and at least two levels of each (i.e. none vs. some) should be tested in all combinations. If significant major e3fects orinteractions are detected it may be necessary to proceed to a full 3 factorial to determine the economic response surface. It will also be desirable later to determine the effect of fertilizer on pole-stage crops.
(i) Season of planting. This study should be coordinated with studies of nursery sowing time and size of planting stock. Late winter, early monsoon and mid/late monsoon are all potential planting times.
(j) Weeding intensity. The need for weeding will depend on the site con- ditions. It is expensive but desirable where weed growth is vigorous or where dry seasons are so severe that competition for limited water is serious. Tests should compare spot and strip weeding at various frequencies. ANNEX 2
Genetic Trials 15 .(a)General. Although the nearest indigenous species is the safest and simplest with which to initiate a plantation program, exotic species may be faster-growing or have superior properties. While chir pine may be grown in Reserved Forest, its relatively long rotation (20-25 years for pulp) will not be attractive to Guzara owners and a fast-growing species is required; in particular short-fibred exotic species such as eucalypts and poplars would be economically attractive and technically acceptable for pulp. In addition some introduced species would produce firewood and fodder.
(b)The genetic component of the proposed project therefore includes three main lines of attack:- (i) species trials (including two or more provenances of some species) to identify well-adapted, fast-growing species for pulpwood, timber, firewood and fodder, (ii) provenance trials of wide-ranging species, including chir pine and the most likely hardwoods, to identify the best seed sources and (iii) selective breeding of chir pine through plus trees, progeny trials and seed orchards to improve the growth rate (and later the wood prop- erties if necessary) of this local, adapted species. The conduct of species and provenance trials in the nursery and field stages is described in detail by Burley and Wood (1976)/1. The trials in a given year should be raised under the nursery and plantation techniques that are currently believed optimum ("best information technique"). Provision is made in the project for three range officers to cover nursery development, establishment research with the pilot plantations, and genetic research. The genetic and silvi- cultural aspects of the program should be conducted with the advice and direct participation of the PFI genetic and silvjc&lduial st ff. the Sites., replications and areas for the trials discussed below are ta UIa ea - Appenlxr. (c)Species trials. It would be theoretically desirable but practically uneconomic to proceed through stages of species elimination (trials of many species for short duration), species testing (fewer possible species,k-k rotation) and species proving or crop performance (2-3 probable species for ½-1 rotation in plots large enough to estimate yields and undertake manage- ment studies). In this project it is necessary to compress these stages and select fewer species for initial comparison with the indigenous chir pine and with the widely used hardwoods (e.&. E. camaldulensis, Robinia pseudoacacia).
(d) Possible species are listed in Appendix 4 together with indications of possible seed suppliers. The main groups of species are conifers for long fibre in Reserved Forests and thardwoods for firewood, pulpwood or fodder; these hardwoods would largely be grown commercially in Guzara Forests but the species and provenance trials would be conducted in secure, accessible but typical sites in Forest Reserves.
(e) Provenance trials. These require careful collection and documentation of seed from known sources to determine the pattern of variation; if this is not already known, and to identify the best provenance(s) for individual sites. In the case of exotic species written requests must be made to national or international agencies for supply of seed; such material may be expensive and should be carefully stored, and treated in the nursery and field.
(C) The most promising species at this stage for which provenance trials are already justified are chir pine (for which a small provenance trial already
/1 A copy of this Manual was left with the Director-General, PFI, Peshawar. ANNEX 2 Pa -eM
exists near Mansehra) and the related eucalypts E. camaldulensis and E. tereticornis (see Pryor, 1967; Qadri, 1968). Seeds of dry zone prov- enances of these two may be requested from the Division of Forestry, CSIRO, Canberra. Considerable work on E. camaldulensis has already been done in other parts of Pakistan (see Hafeez and Sheikh, 1973; Qadri, 1969) but nob in Hazara District.
(g)Progeny testing. The last stage of genetic improvement that involves comparative trials is the phase of progeny testing in species that form a major and well-established part of the project (initially chir pine here). It is undertaken for three main purposes:-
(i) Estimation of population variances, based on open-pollinated progeny of random dominant or co-dominant trees, to determine the genetic structure of the population, to determine the breeding strategy and to predict genetic gain.
(ii) Evaluation of plus trees, based on open-pollinated or control- pollinated progeny of superior phenotypes (see below), to estimate breeding values and facilitate secondary selection.
(iii) Creation of selection plantings, large blocks of known parentage to permit between-family and within-family selection.
Seed Production
17.(a)The amount of seed required each year will vary with species and planting program but it is desirable to be self-sufficient in seed supply at the earliest opportunity for two reasons. Firstly, purchase of seed places the buyer at the mercy of foreign suppliers (cost, availability and reliability). Secondly, local seed may be improved genetically from the outset of the pro- gram. Provision is made for purchase of simple equipment for extraction and refrigerated storage of seed (particularly chir pine since this species flowers at 2-3 year intervals and several years' supplies must be maintained). Limited facilities for seed and pollen testing are also included.
(b)Seed trees and seed stands. Current seed collection in chir pine is haphazard, from poor phenotypes and with little or no supervision by pro- fessional staff. In future seed should be collected from superior trees (selected at a low intensity of about 5 per acre in uniform forest) and from seed stands (phenotypically the best stands available at fruiting age and thinned heavily to stimulate crown development and flower production). This should secure a small amount of genetic gain, good control of seed origin and records, a greater interest on the part of field staff, and greater care in seed handling and nursery treatment. Gradually seed stand seed would be replaced by seed from orchards derived from superior phenotypes ("plus trees") selected for form and vigour at moderate intensity (1 per 1-5 acres) in uni- form forest. ANNEl 2 Page 9
(c) Seed orchard requirements and vegetative propagation. Estimates of the age of onset of flowering in chir pine varied between 25 and 60 years with the PFI geneticists favouring the younger ages. Certainly trees of approximately 20 years were seen to be flowering and by 25 years reasonable commercial crops might be expected. Nevertheless this is too long to wait for seed pro- duction from a seedling seed orchard and vigorous attempts should be made to perfect techniques for vegetative propagation.
(d) Air-layering is successful with chir pine but it is tedious and expens- ive. Grafting has so far been unsuccessful, largely because grafts of the veneer type are difficult with thick-barked species. Tip cleft systems would be more likely to succeed and should be developed. Successful grafting has been reported in India (Khosla /1 , 1976). It is not recommended to study techniques of rooting needle fascicles since these require careful control of the rooting and aerial environments.
(e) Assuming that vegetative propagation of mature trees is adopted, grafts (ramets) should flower within 2-3 years of grafting. Cones yield 50 seeds in chir pine (cf. 100-130 in blue pine) and a large-crowned tree contains 50 cones, or 2,500 seeds. At a spacing of 15 x 15 ft (to encourage crown and flower development) this produces 194 ramets and 485,000 seeds/acre at full production. Assuming 750 plants per acre of plantation (allowing 10% replace- ment and 8 x 8 ft spacing) one acre of seed orchard would supply 650 acres of plantation. However, good seed years occur every third year in chir pine so that a store of seed must be maintained for the two poor years. An effective yield would thus approximate 300 acres of plantation per acre of seed orchard.
(f) If 50,000 acres are to be afforested with improved seed over 25 years, this requires 2,000 acres of plantations annually obtainable from 7 acres of seed orchard or 1,358 grafts (say 30 ramets of 50 plus tree ortets = 1500 grafts = 7.7 acres). For security the orchard should be repeated on two sites, espectally since excess seed can be used for other plantation areas (e..&. Azad Kashmir, Murree, Dir and Swat). Thus a total of 15 acres of clonal seed orchard is desirable, at the rate of 5 acres/year for the last three years of the project. No allowance for the 2,910 seedling stocks is given in Appendix 7, since generous allowances for seedlings have been made in other nursery developments.
(g) The research on vegetative propagation and the seed orchard development would be undertaken by the Range Officer (genetics) under the supervision of the project manager and with the advice and cooperation of the PFI geneticist.
/1 Pers. comm. Dr. P.K. Khosla, Department of Forestry, Himachal Pradesh University ANNEX 2 Page 10
Annual phasing of nursery and plantation programs
18. (a) The pilot plantation and research programs are phased to allow a progressive build-up in staff, facilities, expertise and information, beginning with small areas of known species and building up to a plantation level that is equivalent to annual requirements in the second phase (fully commercial) of the pulpwood program. Most work is concentrated at the main center with representative samples in the sub-station.
(b) The main nursery research should be undertaken in the first two years and the main silvicultural and genetic research in years 2-4. However, it is emphasized that research and development of improved techniques or populations are dynamic processes that continue throughout a plantation program. Further no research or plantation program can be meaningful without rigorous protection from animals, men and fires.
(c) Details of the annual nursery requirements for nursery research, silvicultural research, genetic trials and pilot plantations are given in Appendix 8. Field area requirements for silvicultural and genetic research and pilot plantations are listed in Appendix 11. A summary of both nursery and planting programs is given in Appendix 12. Including the possible sub-station, total area planted in five years would be slightly less than 5,000 acres and total nursery production would approximate 3.7 million plants.
Management
19. The foregoing activities would be under the direct responsibility of the Assistant Project Director who would be responsible to the Chief Conservator of Forests, NWFP, (Project Director). He would be assisted by an internationally recruited specialist for the first three years of the project, (see Annex 3), three Range Forest Officers (Grade 17) and six Foresters (Grade 5). A detailed description of project management is given in Annex 6.
Costs
20. Detailed physical requirements and costs of the central nursery, research trials and pilot plantations are contained in Table 2 of the main report.
Wood and pulp tests
21. The Forest Products Research Division of PFI is able to examine the physical, mechanical and anatomical properties of wood but has no facilities for testing the suitability of wood for pulping. Most pine species have long fibres and have usually been found suitable for kraft pulping, although yields are sometimes low because of low wood density. Chir pine from natural forest appears to have acceptable density and, with modern pulping technology, stem resin is no problem. ANNEX 2 Page 11
22. Before embarking on a major pulpwood plantations program however, it would be necessary to evaluate the pulping characteristics on a commercial basis. This would provide a definitive assessment of timber properties on which to base forest industries development and associated plantations development.
23. The project would finance bulk testing of 1-ton of Chir pine at an internationally recognized laboratory (e.g., Canada, Finland, U.SoA.) and include the costs of shipping, laboratory testing, literature search and reporting. A Pakistan specialist should attend the test and prepare his own report on the processes and results and these expenses are included in the costs. Estimated total costs are PRs. 305,000 and are detailed in Table 2 of the main report.
24. The project director would coordinate with the Pakistan Forest Institute in arranging for the tests, for which PFI would take primary responsibility. The timing of the tests would be arranged so that results would be available for inclusion in the data presented for the industrial feasibility study - see Annex 5.
25. Pulping tests of other likely species would be conducted in the follow-up phase when their growth potential has been confirmed. ANNEX 2 d= ena I Page I References (Not all are quoted in thetext)
A. References relating to tree volumes,growth and yield in Pakistan
Anon. 1969. Standard volume tables for coniferous species of northern West Pakistan (Height-diameter-volume tables). Pak. For. Inst., Peshawar, For. Res. Ser., For. Rec. No. 2, 66 p.
Champion, H.G. and Mahendru, I.D. 1933. Multiple yield tables for deodar (Cedrus deodara London). Indian For. Rec. 15 (8), 116 p.
Champion, H.G., Suri, P.N. and Mahendru, I.D. 1929. Yield tables for blue pine. Indian For. Rec., Silvic. 13, 29 p.
Hafeez, M. 1973. Provisional mine timber and pit props tables for Acacia arabica riverain forests and linear plantations for south part of West Pakistan. Pak. For. Inst., Peshawar.
Hafeez, M., and Cheema, M.A. 1971. Provisional volume tables for babul in linear plantations. Pak. For. Inst., Peshawar.
Hafeez, M., Malik, M.A. and Moosvi, S-H.A. 1973. Volume tables for shisham in linear plantationsof West Pakistan. Pak. For. Inst., Peshawar.
Howard, S.M. 1926. Yield and volume tables for chir (Pinus longifolia.) Indian For. Rec. 12 (5), 21 p.
Hussain, R.W. and Abbas, S.H. 1947. Volume tables for shisham in irrigated plantations of the Punjab. Pak. For. Inst., Peshawar.
Hussain, R.W. and Abbas, S.H. 1973. A typical stand profile of chir pine (Pinus roxburghii). Pak. J. For. 23: 372-6.
Hussain, R.W. and Cheema, M.A. 1970. Estimating precise diameter and breast height (4.5') of tapped trees of chir pine in Haripur Forest Division. Pak. J. For. 20: 185-8.
Hussain, R.W. and Cheema, M.A. 1973. Provisional volume table for poplar in Mardan. Pak. J. For. 23: 64-73.
Hussain, R.W. and Qazi, I.H. 1973. Site index curves for chir pine (Pinus roxburghii). Pak. J. For. 23: 354-62.
Hussain, R.W. and Qazi, I.R. 1974. Volume tables for Kaghan walnut. Pak. For. Inst., Peshawar.
Malik, M.A. 1970. Local volume tables of the coniferous species of northern West Pakistan. Pak. For. Inst., Peshawar, For. Res. Ser., For. Rec. No. 3. 42 p.
Malik, M.A. and Hussain, R.W. 1971. Estimation of double bark thickness for mulberry in irrigated plantations. Pak. J. For. 21: 19-26.
Malik, M.A. and Hussain, R.W. and Cheema, M.A. 1971. Volume tables for mulberry in irrigated plantation. Pak. For. Inst., Peshawar. Appendix I Page 2
Malik, M.A., Hussain, R.W. and Hanif, M. 1967. Construction of volume tables of the coniferous species of northern regions of West Pakistan. Pak. J. For. 17: 69-80.
Malik, M.A. and Moosvi, S.H.A. 1970. Commercial volume tables for willow. Pak. For. Inst., Peshawar.
Qazi, I.H. and Abbas, S.H. 1974. Metric log volume tables with diameter conversion and basal area tables. Pak. For. Inst., Peshawar.
Qadri, S.M.A. and Hafeez, M. 1969. Volume tables for Acacia arabica riverain forests of West Pakistan. Pak. For. Inst., Peshawar.
Qazi, I.H. and Cheema, M.A. 1974. Local volume tables for babul of Bahawalpur canal plantations. Pak. For. Inst., Peshawar.
Qazi, I.H. and Hussain, R.W. 1975. Local metric volume tables of coniferous species for Malakand Civil Division. Pak. For. Inst., Peshawar, For. Res. Div., For. Mens. Br., Publ. 35, 27 p.
Seth, S.K., Dabral, S.N. and Lala, M.K. 1972. Yield and stand tables for chir (Pinus roxburghii Sargent) high forest. Indian For. Rec., Silvic. 11 (8), 261 p.
B. Indian yield and stand tables not available in Pakistan
Chaturvedi, A.N. (1973a). Stand volume and yield tables for silver fir. Indian For. Rec. (N.S.) Silvic. 12(5), 11 p.
Chaturvedi, A.N. (1973b). Stand volume and yield tables for Kail (Pinus wallichianak. Indian For. Rec. (N.S.) Silvic. 12(11), 16 p.
Seth, S.K., Dabral, S.N. and Lala, M.K. (1972). Yield and stand tables for chir (Pinus roxburghii Sargent) high forest. Indian For. Rec. (N.S.) Silvic. 11(8): 151-261.
C. Other references quoted in text
Burley, J. and P.J. Wood (1976). A manual on species and provenance research with particular reference to the tropics. Trop. For. Pap. 10, Commonw. For. Inst., Oxford. 226 p.
Greaves, A. and J.F. Hughes (1976). Site assessment in species and prov- enance research. In: A manual on species and provenance research with particular reference to the tropics (J. Burley and P.J. Wood, compilers). Commonw. For. Inst., Oxford. 226 p.
Jan, A. (1972). Land use survey of Siran and Daur Rivers Watersheds. North West Frontier Forest Records Inventory Series (3). Aerial Forest Inventory Project, PFI, Peshawar. 88 p.
Hafeez, M. and M.I. Sheikh. 1973. Eucalyptus camaldulensis provenance trials in West Pakistan at age 6 years. In: Tropical provenance and progeny research and international cooperation (eds. J. Burley and D.G. Nikles). Commonw. For. Inst., Oxford. 597 p. ANNEX 2 Apndix I Page 3
Paul, D.K. 1972. A handbook of nursery practice for Pinus caribaea var. hondurensis and other conifers in West Malaysia. Wkg. Pap. 19, UNDP/ FAQ FO:SF/MAL 12 (W8/F8204). 139 p. Kuala Lumpur.
Pryor, L.D. 1967. Past performance and future prospects for the use of Eucalyptus in West Pakistan. UNDP/FAO Pakistan National Forestry Research and Training Project, Rept. No. 1. Peshawar. 19 p.
Qadri, S.M.A. 1968. The selection of Australian species for afforestation in West Pakistan: a rational approach. Dept. Agric., Govt. W. Pakistan. 144 p.
Qadri, S.M.A. 1969. Provenance trials of Eucalyptus camaldulensis, Dehn. in West Pakistan. In: Proc. Second World Consultation on Forest Tree Breeding, Washington, D.C., 7-16 August, 1969. Vol. 1 : 863-72.
Qureshi, I.M. and J.S. Yadav. 1967. Studies on forest soils during prep- aration of working plans. Indian For. 93(4) 199-219. ANME 2 ndix 2 Page ] Climatic data for selected stations in Hazara
A. Monthly rainfall (inches)
/1 /2 /2 /3 GarhiA Balakot - Balakot - Naran - Mansehra - Habibullah
January 2.89 3.02 2.54 2.10 2.54 February 5.74 5.12 11.58 1.92 3.14 March 5.75 5.37 13.27 4.29 5.64 April 6.51 5.63 10.07 3.10 5.24 May 2.90 2.40 3.55 2.13 4.17 June 2.30 2.91 1.01 0.95 0.75 July 10.90 13.33 2.30 6.55 14.03 August 10.80 9.52 1.50 5.97 9.45 September 6.33 4.19 2.44 3.28 2.39 October 1.32 2.03 3.63 1.71 3.71 November 2.31 1.95 1.93 1.41 2.26 December 3.41 2.42 3.05 1.96 2.14 TOTAL 61.16 57.89 56.87 35.36 55.46
/1 1958-65 Source: M.A. Khan. (1970). Working Plan of the Upper Kagan Guzara Forests. 1967-68 to 1976-77. 286 p. /2 1964-74 Source: M.A. Khan. (1970). Working Plan of the Kagan Forest Reserve. /3 1955-64 ^ Source: F.R. Khan. (1967). Working Plan for Lower Kagan /4 1963-64 Guzara Forests. 1966-67 to 1975-76. 299 p.
B. Average rainfall (inches) for 1953-62
Station Elevation Rainfall Station Elevation Rainfall (ft) (ins) _ (ft) (ins) Tarbela 1320 31 Mansehra 3884 35 Haripur 1699 33 Garhi Habibullah 2855 55 Khanpur 1984 35 Daddar 4113 53 Abbottabad 4730 48 Balakot 3258 52 Kakul 6107 49 Battal 4834 48 Donga gali 9208 60 Oghi 3793 46
(Source: A. Jan (1972). Land use survey of Siran and Daur Rivers Watersheds. N.W. Frontier For. Rec., Inventory Ser. 3. 88 p.) AME 2 Appendix 2 Page z
C. Temperature ( F) NARAN BALAKOT
Months Max: Min: Average Max: Min: Average
January 38.0 19.5 28.7 57.7 33.7 45.7 February 40.0 21.5 30.7 59.8 41.0 50.4 March 45.0 27.0 36.0 66.6 46.9 56.7 April 49.3 34.0 41.6 74.2 54.7 64.4 May 64.6 47.6 56.1 83.8 62.0 72.9 June 76.6 53.6 65.1 94.7 73.1 83.9 July 77.0 51.0 64.0 89.3 70.6 79.9 August 78.0 54.6 66.3 87.1 70.0 78.5 September 68.6 49.3 58.9 86.3 64.8 75.5 October 62.6 31.0 46.8 80.0 54.1 67.0 November 52.3 36.0 44.1 69.2 42.5 55.8 December 44.3 22.3 33.3 60.2 36.1 48.1
D. Relative humidity (%)
NARAN BALAKOT
Months 0800 Hours 1700 Hours 0800 Hours 1700 Hours
January 64 68 78 59 February 75 70 72 58 March 70 71 68 57 April 69 68 61 49 May 58 - - - June 45 39 48 36 July 49 47 70 57 August 55 53 81 69 September 62 49 73 60 October 60 58 70 52 November 71 63 71 53 December 61 64 75 55
NOTE: Naran - Average for four years (1962-65) Balakot - Average for seven years (1962-68) 4~ppndi.x 2 Page 3
.i,
Temperat ure -
6j RRAINFALL IOYews Average
.4
3- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~9F w
* _ Max._ Oyears) i:
'4 p.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~a
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Oec Rainfall and Temperature Data Recorded at Kakul.
Source Jan (1972) ANNEX 2 6e -enr-..>l.3 Examples of yield in natural forest and a plantation for several conifers in Pakistan and India
Main crop MAI Species, Age, 1 /2 Quality years Diameter, Height, No/ SteuwoodL- Total- o.b., inches ft o.ac cu.ft/ac. cu.ft/ac.
PFI, Peshawar _( /3 Chir 1 10 (100) 20 5.3 35 430 103 30 7.4 48 300 9 104 40 9.2 60 220 30 105 50 11.0 71 165 44 106 Chir 2 10 Many (60) 20 3.4 29 830 78 30 5.0 39 458 85 40 6.6 48 330 2 89 50 8.4 57 231 17 91 Chir 3 10 20 2.6 23 Many 70 30 4.2 30 675 74 40 5.6 37 450 77 50 7.1 44 310 2 80 Seth, Dabral and Lala (1972) Chir 1 5 0 0 10 0 7 15 4.8 20 654 0 62 20 5.8 35 498 0 88 25 6.7 47 405 10 110 30 7.6 58 339 23 115 Chir 2 5 0 0 10 0 4 15 3.2 12 1083 0 30 20 4.2 24 762 0 51 25 5.2 34 566 2 66 30 6.2 43 445 10 80 =.U2 ZRMndf 3 Miage 2
Main crop MAI Species, Age) 1- / Quality years Diameter, Height, No.tac Stevood- Total-' o.b., inches ft cu.ftiac. cu.ft/ac.
Chaturvedi (1973b) Kail 1 10 2.5 21 1142 20 5.8 43 621 29 152 30 9.1 63 367 107 197 40 12.4 82 248 158 230 50 15.1 97 189 180 242 Kail 2 10 1.8 16 2160 108 20 4.4 33 854 34 132 30 6.7 48 531 72 152 40 9.0 62 373 102 170 50 11.4 76 277 120 181 Chaturvedi (1973a) Silver 40 4.4 37 988 15 70 fir 50 7.1 53 581 46 85 60 9.1 64 438 60 92 Supkhar, India/- Chir 1 5 1.5 9 256 10 2.9 13 157 15 4.3 30 168 20 5.5 39 171 25 6.8 49 178 30 7.9 58 180 35 9.0 66 184 40 9.9 73 186 45 10.7 79 183 50 11.4 85 177 55 12.0 89 176 60 12.6 94 174 /1 Stem timber volume underbark to 8 inch diameter /2 Stem and branch timber volume underbark to 2 inch diameter /3 Data supplied by Mr. Ishaq, Mensuration Officer, PFI, from preliminary analysis of Murree Hills samples which are believed to be of lower site quality than Hazara District /4 Data supplied to IBRD mission to Madhya Pradesh, 1975. Mean annual rain- fall 64 inches. Mean maximum temperature 95 F. Sandy loam soil over laterite on gentle slope. ANNEX 2 Apeperi,i: X Pate I
Notes on some possible species and provenances for replicated, comparative trials in various environments /1
A. Sub-tropical montane regions (2,500-5,000 ft) with summer rainfall (e.g. Hazara)
1. Conifers for pulp /2
Pinus caribaea (var. bahamensis from Bahamas for locations where frost is rare; seed from CFI, Oxford) P. elliottii (as far as possible origins from low P. palustris latitude simmer rainfall areas in USA; P. rigida seed obtainable from USFS Seed Centre, P. taeda Macon, Georgia) P. densiflora (origins from north of range in South Korea; seed P. thunbergiii from Institute of Forest Genetics, Suwon) P. kesiya (Burma, Thailand origins possible; also compare Assam) P. halepensis/ -P. brutia (several provenances within the natural range, although this is essentially a Mediterranean species) P. tabulaeformis/P. yunnanensis (northern extension of P. kesiya in China; seed may be obtainable through FAO) P. oocarpa, P. patula, P. radiata (unlikely to succeed in this zone but worth including in species elimination phase) P. michoacana/P. douglasiana (thick bark, long needles, grass stage, fire resistant but unlikely to adjust to photoperiod) P. pseudostrobus/P. tenuifolia (high altitude origins with more evenly distributed rainfall may have potential; seed from CFI, Oxford) P. ponderosa (high temperature, low latitude origins, e.&. Lake Tahoe, California) P. roxburghii (include both Pakistan and Indian sources) Cupressus arizonica/C. lusitanica/C. torulosa (more useful for timber than pulp but worthy of trial in the early stages)
2. Hardwoods for pulp, matchwood, furniture, fuel or fodder:
Eucalyptus bicostata E. camaldulensis (4-6 dry zone provenances) E. tereticornisr) E. citriodora E. cloeziana E. globulus E. melanophloia E. microtheca (suitable for trial in arid, saline and waterlogged areas)
/1 Many of these species have already been tested sporadically in Pakistan or are to be included in ARC/PL480 proposal by PFI. /2 Even in a short-rotation unthinned pulpwood plantation, some butt logs may be usable for timber. Although none of the species would be tapped for resin during a 20-25 year rotation it may be feasible to inject trees with paraquat one year before felling to stimulate the production of resin that would be extracted in the pulping process. AUN11 2 Apoendix Page 2
E. paniculata E. rudis (All requests for eucalypt seeds should be addressed E. viminalis to Forestry Division, CSIRO, Canberra) Acacia arabica A. modesta (Also yield tannin. Probably unadapted to local rain- A. mearnsii fall distribution but worthy of trial in the elimination phase; seed from South Africa, or Tamil Nadu, India) Alnus nitida Populus ciliata (mainly for streamsides) Salix tetrasperma Broussonetia Gleditsia tricanthos Morus alba Populus alba P. euamericana P. nigra Robinia pseudoacacia (4-5 provenances from Georgia to Pennsylvania, USA) Sapindus mukorossi B. Moist temperate coniferous region (6-9,000 ft) for pure and mixed plantations
Abies alba Picea abies Pinus flexilis Pseudotsuga menziesii A. grandis P. obovata P. monticola Thuya plicata A. nordananniana P. omorika P. strobus A. pindrow P. smithiana P. wallichiana Cedrus deodara Chamaecyparis pisifera C. lawsoniana ANNEX 2
PaOe 1 Calculation of plant requirements for development of nursery techniques /1
Subject Year Treatment combinations No. of pots Main centre Soil mixture /2 1 6 mixtures x 2 provenances 4800 x 4 reps x 100 pots Sand fraction /3 1 6 proportions x 2 proven- 4800 ances x 4 reps x 100 pots NPK Fertilizer /4 1 27 treatments x 1 proven- 8100 ance x 3 reps x 100 pots Mg Fertilizer /5 2 3 levels x 2 provenances 3600 x 6 reps x 100 pots Trace elements A6 2 4 treatments x 2 proven- 4800 ances x 6 reps x 100 pots Repeated fertilizer /7 2 10 treatments x 1 proven- 4,000 ance x 4 reps x 100 pots Bag/tube size /8 2 2 types x 5 sizes x 1 5000 provenance x 5 reps x 100 pots Root pryning /9 3 3 seasons x 2 methods 3600 x 1 provenance x 6 reps x 100 pots Sowing time /9 1 3 seasons x 2 provenances 3600 x 6 reps x 100 pots Watering regime /9, 10 1 4 regimes x 1 provenance 2000 x 5 reps x 100 pots Main centre total: 44,300
Sub-station Soil mixture /2 2 6 mixtures x 2 provenances 4800 x 4 reps x 100 pots Sand fraction /3 2 6 proportions x 2 proven- 4800 ances x 4 reps x 100 pots NPK fertilizer /4 2 27 treatments x 1 proven- 8100 ance x 3 reps x 100 pots Repeated fertilizer /7 2 10 treatments x 1 proven- 4000 ance x 4 reps x 100 pots Bag/tube size M 3 2 types x 5 sizes x 1 5000 provenance x 5 reps x 100 pots Root pruning /9 4 3 seasons x 2 methods x 1 3600 provenance x 6 reps x 100 pots Sub-station total 30,300 Grand total 74,600 /1 Largely with chir pine initially. Nursery located near Mansehra in typical chir pine zone. The same nursery will produce plants for development of establishment methods and cultural techniques and for pilot plantations. No spare plants are included for nursery trials since an assessment of deaths and culls is one object of the experiments. np277R 5 Page 2 /2 Soil:sand:humus at 0:50:50; 50:0:50; 50:50:0; 100:0:0; 0:100:0; 0:0:100 Soil would be collected from chir forest to ensure mycorrhization.
/3 Sand:clay/silt with no humus; humus could be undesirable in commerical practice since Lophodermium pinastri occurs. A standard fertilizer treatment would be applied.
/4 Three levels each of N, P, K in all combinations using a sand-rich standard mixture; applied one month after mean germination.
/5 Three levels of Mg at standard treatment of NPK; applied 1 month after mean germination.
/6 Boron, copper and zinc at one level each, plus control with no trace elements, using standard soil and NPK Mg treatment; applied 1 month after mean germination.
/7 Standard NPK Mg treatment applied at the following months after mean germination: 0; 1; 2; 3; 4; 5; 6; 1+3+5; 2+4+6; 1-6;
/8 Bags and open tubes with the following dimensions using standard soil mixture and NPK Mg fertiliser: 2.5 x 6"; 2.5 x 7"; 3 x 6"; 3 x 7"; 4 x 7".
/9 Using standard soil, fertiliser and tube size.
/10 Hand-watered, i" equivalent at the following intervals: Daily: a.m. only; a.m. and p.m. Alternate days: a.m. only Third day: a.m. only The effective water depth supplied by the irrigation system can be both calculated and measured. ANNEt 2 Page I Calculation of plant requirements for development of e.tablishment and cultural techniques for chir pine
No. of Year plants Area
Main Centre A 3 methods- x 2 provenances-3 Ground preparation 2 x 2 sites/3 x 3 reps/4 x 16 trees @ 8 x 8 ft spacing /5 576 0.85 Spacing 2/3 4 spacings/6 x 2 provenances/2 x 2 sites/7 x 4 reps/4 x 51 trees/6 @ 7 x 7 ft mean spacing/6 3264 3.68 Altitudinal effects 3/4/5 3 provenances/8 x 6 sites/9 x 2 aspects/10 x 4 reps/4 x 59 trees/ll @ 8 x 8 ft spacing/5 7056 10.35 Size of planting stock 3 3 sizes/12 x 2 provenances/2 x 2 sites/7 x 3 reps/4 x 16 trees @ 8 x 8 ft spacing/5 576 0.85 Fertilization 3/4 3 fertilizers/13 x 2 levels/13 x 2 provenances/2 x 2 sites/7 x 3 reps/4 x 16 trees @ 8 x 8 ft spacing/5 1536 2.26 Season of planting 3/4 3 seasons/14 x 2 provenances/2 x 2 sites/7 x 4 reps/15 x 36 trees/15 @ 8 x 8 ft spacing/5 1728 2.54 Weeding intensity 2/3 4 weedings/16 x 2 provenances x 2 sites/7 x 3 reps/4 x 16 trees @ 8 x 8 ft spacing/5 768 1.12 Sub-station
Season of planting 3 3 seasons/14 x 2 sites/7 x 6 reps/4 x 36 trees @ 8 x 8 ft spacing/5 1296 1.90 Size of planting stock 3 3 sizes/12 x 2 sites/7 x 4 reps/4 x 16 trees @ 8 x 8 ft spacing/5 384 0.56 Fertilization 3 3 fertilizers/13 x 2 levels/13 x 2 sites/7 x 4 reps x 16 trees @ 8 x 8 ft spacing/5 768 1.13
/1 2 pit sizes and 1 crowbar-digging /2 To reduce the chance of detecting atypical responses /3 Deep and shallow soils /4 To obtain a minimum of 10-20 degrees of freedom for residual variance /5 To minimize erosion and weed competition; could be modified by the results of spacing experiments. On a slope of 45 , the horizontal inter-tree distance is 5.7 ft A-Re-n-asLx 6 Page 2
/6 Equalize plot area not number of trees: 5 x 5 ft spacing requires 9 x 9 trees = 81 6 x 6 8 x 8 = 64 7 x 7 7 x 7 = 49 8 x 8 6 x 6 = 36 9 x 9 5 x 5 = 25
225
Average = 51 and 7 x 7 spacing /7 Either two diverse soil types or two altitudes, confounded with year of planting when experiment is planned to extend over two years of planting /8 From extremes and centre of natural altitudinal range /9 At different altitudes spanning the range of likely planting sites; con- founded with year of planting and possibly soil effects /10 North and south facing aspects /11 To allow assessment of yield at full rotation /12 20, 30 and 40 cms /13 Factorial combinations of 2 levels each of N, P and K initially; if major responses or interactions are detected after 4 years, a second series of trials with 3 levels of each nutrient may be required to examine the complete response surface. For young trees of chir pine; mid-rotation fertilization would be tested after 10 years. Fertilizer trials for other species await the results of species trials /14 February/March; early monsoon; mid-monsoon /fB Effects of within-plot environmental variation will be small in comparison with the major effects under test /16 Spot and strip weeding, once or twice per season ANNEX 2 APRendix 7 Page 1
Calculation of plant requirements for genetic field trials at 8 x 8 ft spacing
No. of Year Population/site combinations plants Area
Main centre
Species trials
Conifers, pulpwood 2/3/4 12 spp/l x 3 geology/2 x 2 6912 10.20 aspects/3 x 6 reps/4 x 16 trees/4 Hardwoods, firewood/ 2/3/4 12 spp/l x 3 geology/2 x 2 6912 10.20 pulpwood aspects/3 x 6 reps/4 x 16 trees/4 Hardwoods, firewood/ 3/4/5 6 spp/l x 3 geology/2 x 2 5184 7.62 fodder aspects/3 x 4 reps/5 x 36 trees/5 Provenance trials
P. roxburghii 2/3/4 10 populations/6 x 3 geology 5760 8.46 /2 x 2 aspects/3 x 6 reps/4 x 16 trees/4 E. camaldulensis 2/3/4 10 populations/7 x 3 geology 5760 8.46 /2 x 2 aspects/3 x 6 reps/4 x 16 trees/4 E. tereticornis 2/3/4 6 populations/7 x 3 geology/2 3456 5.07 x 2 aspects/3 x 6 reps/4 x 16 trees/4
Progeny trials, chir pine
Estimation of popu- 2/3 5 populations/9 x 20 parents 10000 14.70 lation variances/8 /10 x 2 sites/il x 5 reps x 10 trees Evaluation of plus 2/3/4 50 parents/13 x 3 sites/li x 6000 8.82 trees/12 4 reps x 10 trees Selection plantings/14 5 50 parents/13 x 340 trees 17000 25.0
Sub-total 60988 98.53
Sub-station
Species trials
Conifers, pulpwood 3 12 spp/l x 2 sites/li x 4 1536 2.26 reps x 16 trees Hardwoods, firewood/ 4 12 spp/l x 2 sites/il x 4 1536 2.26 pulpwood reps x 16 trees Hardwoods, firewood/ 5 6 spp/l x 2 sites/li x 5 960 1.41 fodder reps x 16 trees ANNEX 2
Page 2
Provenance trials
P. roxburghii 3 10 populations/6 x 2 sites 1600 2.35 /11 x 5 reps x 16 trees Progeny trials
Evaluation of plus 4 50 parents/13 x 1 site x 6 3000 4.41 trees reps x 10 trees Selection plantings 5 50 parents/13 x 68 trees 3400 5.00
Sub-total 12032 17.69
TOTAL 73020 116.22
/1 Possible species for trial are listed in Appendix 4. Seed of all species will not be available at one time. /2 Alluvial, sedimentary and volcanic geology; these may be reduced after the site survey. /3 North and south aspects. /4 Many replications and small plots to minimise intra-block environmental variance. /5 In estimating fodder production more trees will be needed per plot than to esti- mate stem growth. /6 Including Indian sources supplied by FRI, Dehra Dun, possibly through FAO/ Danish Tree Seed Centre, Humlebaek, Denmark. /7 Especially dry zone and high latitude sources, obtainable from Forestry Division, CSIRO, Canberra, Australia. /8 To compare population genetic variances, to compare gain from between-population and within-population selection, and to estimate population heritabilities based on above-average phenotypes, not plus trees. (Family block design.) /9 Representing the range of chir pine in Pakistan. /10 Random healthy dominants or co-dominants. /11 Representing major afforestation areas. /12 To rank selected phenotypes, to estimate and to demonstrate gain (predicted and realised, by comparison with commercial controls and seed stand/seed orchard material) and to estimate genotype-environment interaction effects. /13 The number of plus trees will increase continually throughout a breeding pro- gram; tested by open-pollinated progeny. /14 Large scale plantings to permit later selection of best individuals in best families thus increasing the selection differential and genetic gain. AM 2 MdMx 8 Page I
Annual phasing of nursery program (Number of plants '000)
YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 Total
Main centre
Development of nursery techniques
Sowing time 3.6 - - - - 3.6 W atering regime 2.0 - - - - 2.0 Soil mixture 4.8 - - - - 4.8 Sand fraction 4.8 - - - - 4.8 NPK fertilizer 8.1 - - - - 8.1 Mg fertilizer - 3.6 - - - 3.6 Trace elements - 4.8 - - - 4.8 Repeated fertilizer - 4.0 - - - 4.0 Bag/tube size - 5.0 - - - 5.0 Root pruning - 3.6 - - - 3.6
Sub-total 23.3 21.0 - - - 44.3
Development of establishment and cultural techniques (allowing 10% for culling and early replacement/l) (i.e. 750/acre a 8 x 8 ft spacing)
Ground preparation - 0.64 - - - 0.64 Spacing/2 - 1.64 1.64 - - 3.28 Altitudinal effects - 2.59 2.59 2.59 - 7.77 Size of planting stock - - 0.64 - - 0.64 Fertilization - - 0.85 0.85 - 1.70 Season of planting - - 0.85 0.85 - 1.70 Weeding intensity - 0.42 0.42 - - 0.84
Sub-total - 5.29 6.99 4.29 - 16.57
Genetic trials (allowing 10% for culling and early replacement/l)
Species trials
Conifers, pulpwood - 2.55 2.55 2.55 - 7.65 Hardwoods, firewood/pulpwood - 2.55 2.55 2.55 - 7.65 Hardwoods, firewood/fodder - 1.91 1.91 1.91 - 5.73 Provenance trials
P. roxburghii - 2.12 2.12 2.12 - 6.36 E. camaldulensis - 2.12 2.12 2.12 - 6.36 E. tereticornis - 1.27 1.27 1.27 - 3.81 Progeny trials
Estimating variances - 5.51 5.51 - - 11.02 Evaluating plus trees - 2.21 2.21 2.21 - 6.63 Selection plantings - - - - 18.75 18.75
Sub-total - 20.24 20.24 14.73 18.75 73.96 AMEXl 2 &Mfe!ndix 8
YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 Total
Pilot plantations (allowing 10% for culling and early replacement)
Chir pine 75.00 150.00 300.00 600.00 1200.00 2325.00 Hardwoods 37.50 75.00 150.00 300.00 600.00 1162.50
Sub-total 112.50 225.00 450.00 900.00 1800.00 3487.50
TOTAL 135.80 271.53 477.23 919.02 1818.75 3622.33
Sub-station
Development of nursery techniques
Soil mixture - 4.8 - - - 4.8 Sand fraction - 4.8 - - - 4.8 NPK fertilizer - 8.1 - - - 8.1 Repeated fertilizer - - 4.0 - - 4.0 Bag/tube size - - 5.0 - - 5.0 Root pruning - - - 3.6 - 3.6
Sub-total - 17.7 9.0 3.6 - 30.3
Development of establishment and cultural techniques (allowing 10% for culling and early replacement /1)
Season of planting - - 1.43 - - 1.43 Size of planting stock - - 0.42 - - 0.42 Fertilization - - 0.85 - - 0.85
Sub-total - - 2.70 - - 2.70
Genetic trials (allowing 10% for culling and early replacement /1)
Species trials
Conifers, pulpwood - - 1.70 - - 1.70 Hardwoods, firewood/pulpwood - - - 1.70 - 1.70 Hardwoods, firewood/fodder - - - - 1.06 1.06 Provenance trials
P. roxburghii - - 1.76 - - 1.76 Progeny trials
Evaluation of plus trees - - - 3.31 - 3.31 Selection plantings - - - - 3.75 3.75
Sub-total - - 3.46 5.01 4.81 13.28
TOTAL - 17.7 15.16 8.61 4.81 46.28 ANNEX 2 MlD =enix 8 Page 3
/1 There is always controversy about beating-up in genetics trials; separate analysis can be undertaken for original plants and replacements but this is rarely warranted. /2 Average spacing 7 x 7 ft with 889 plants per acre. Ame 9 Page I
Annual phasing of planting program (acres)
YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 Total Main centre
Establishment and cultural techniques
Ground preparation - 0.85 - - - 0.85 Spacing - 1.84 1.84 - - 3.68 Altitudinal effects - 3.45 3.45 3.45 - 10.35 Size of planting stock - - 0.85 - - 0.85 Fertilization - - 1.13 1.13 - 2.26 Season of planting - - 1.27 1.27 - 2.54 Weeding intensity - 0.56 0.56 - - 1.12
Sub-total - 6.70 10.10 5.85 - 21.65
Genetic trials
Species trials Conifers, pulpwood - 3.40 3.40 3.40 - 10.20 Hardwoods, firewood/pulpwood - 3.40 3.40 3.40 - 10.20 Hardwoods, firewood/fodder - 2.54 2.54 2.54 - 7.62
Provenance trials P. roxburghii - 2.82 2.82 2.82 - 8.46 E. camaldulensis - 2.82 2.82 2.82 - 8.46 E. tereticornis - 1.69 1.69 1.69 - 5.07
Progeny trials Estimating variances - 7.35 7.35 - - 14.70 Evaluating plus trees - 2.94 2.94 2.94 - 8.82 Selection plantings - - - - 25.00 25.00
Sub-total - 26.96 26.96 19.61 25.00 98.53
Pilot plantations
Chir pine 100.00 200.00 400.00 800.00 1600.00 3100.00 Hardwoods 50.00 100.00 200.00 400.00 800.00 1550.00
Sub-total 150.00 300.00 600.00 1200.00 2400.00 4650.00
Sub-station
Establishment and cultural techniques
Season of planting - - 1.90 - - 1.90 Size of planting stock - - 0.56 - - 0.56 Fertilization - - 1.13 - - 1.13
Sub-total 3.59 3.59 ANNR 2 Appendix 9 Page 2
YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 TOTAL Genetic trials
Species trials Conifers, pulpwood - - 2.26 - - 2.26 Hardwoods, firewood/pulpwood - - - 2.26 - 2.26 Hardwoods, firewood/fodder - - - - 1.41 1.41
Provenance trials P. roxburghii - - 2.35 - - 2.35
Progeny trials Evaluation of plus trees - - - 4.41 - 4.41 Selection plantings - - - - 5.00 5.00
Sub-total - - 4.61 6.67 6.41 17.69
TOTAL (both stations) 150.00 333.36 645.26 1232.13 2431.41 4792.46 Page I Summary of annual planting and nursery programs
YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 TOTAL
Planting (acres)
Main centre Establishment techniques 6.70 10.10 5.85 21.65 Genetic trials 26.96 26.96 19.61 25.00 98.53 Pilot plantations 150.00 300.00 600.00 1200.00 2400.00 4650.00
Sub-total 150.00 333.66 637.06 1225.46 2425.00 4770.18
Sub-station Establishment techniques 3.59 3.59 Genetic trials 4.61 6.67 6.41 17.69
Sub-total 8.20 6.67 6.41 21.28
TOTAL 150.00 333.66 645.26 1232.13 2431.41 4792.46
(Rounded up 150 350 650 1250 2450 4850
Nursery plant requirements (000)
Main centre Nursery techniques 23.30 21.00 44.30 Establisbmer.t techniques 5.29 6.99 4.29 16.57 Genetic trials 20.24 20.24 14.73 18.75 73.96 Pilot plantations 112.50 225.00 450.00 900.00 1800.00 348.7.50
Sub-total 135.80 271.53 477.23 919.02 1818.75 3622.33
Sub-station Nursery techniques 17.70 9.00 3.60 30.30 Establishment 2.70 2.70 Genetic trials 3.46 5.01 4.81 13.28
Sub-total 17.70 15.16 8.61 4.81 46.28
TOTAL (both stations) 135.80 289.23 492.39 927.63 1823.56 3668.61
(Rounded up )L0 290 500 950 1900 3780 ) APDendix I Page 1 Local and scientific names for selected tree species
Babul Acacia arabica Bahan Populus euphratica Blue pine (biar, kail) Pinus wallichiana Chir pine Pinus roxburghii Deodar (paludur) Cedrus deodara Horsechestnut (bankhor) Aesculus indica Kail (blue pine) Pinus wallichiana Mesquite Prosopis juliflora, P. glandulosa Neem Azadirachita indica Olive Olea cuspidata Phulai Acacia modesta Poplar Populus alba, P. ciliata, P. euamericana, P. nigra Semul (simal) Salmalia malabarica Shisham Dalbergia sissoo Silver fir Abies pindrow Soap nut Sapindus mukoross Spruce Picea smithiana Tamarix Tamarix aphylla Walnut (akhrot) Juglans regia Wattle Acacia mearnsii, A. mollissima ANNEX 3 Page 1
PAKISTAN
HAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECT
Training and Fellowships
Plantations Development
1. A critical aspect of plantations establishment is the rapid development of improved and economic techniques for nursery and plantation management, followed by dissemination of knowledge to commercial plantation staff. To achieve these objectives, in the 5-year project proposed above, provision would be made for the services of an internationally recruited specialist in nursery and plantation technology. The specialist would be employed for the first three years of the project, and could be re-employed on a 1-month consultancy basis for-continuing advice in the last two years of the project. A job description for this specialist post is included in Appendix 1.
2. The plantation specialist would assist the project director in arranging training fellowships for himself (the project director), the assistant project director and the nursery range officer. These should include two 2-month visits to on-going plantation projects particularly in east, central and southern Africa (Kenya, Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Madagascar and possibly South Africa, Swaziland or Rhodesia) and may include Turkey or India. The assistant project directorwould study all aspects of nursery and plantation organization and management; the nursery range officer would spend one visit working in all operations in a commercial scale nursery and the second visiting several nurseries; the project director would study the integration of forestry and forest industries development.
Other Activities
3. In addition to the inventory specialist discussed in Appendix 1. provision is made for one month of specialist forestry consultancy in each of the last three years of the project with flexibility for subjects (e.g., soils, entomology, genetics, pathology, seed technology or general management), as need arises. The project manager would arrange these consultancies in collaboration with the PFI taking account of any special problems being encountered in the technical support of the project being provided by PFI.
4. The project itself would provide technical advice to the small forestry component in the proposed hill farming technical development project by making available information on technical developments and providing short in-service training in nursery and planting techniques, funds for which would be provided for in the hill farming project.
5. Estimated costs of training and fellowships are PRs 1.9 million and are detailed on Table 2 of the main report. ANNEX 3 Appendix 1 Page 1
PAKISTAN
HAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECT
Job Description and Qualificitions
Forestry Specialist
General
1. The project aims at developing improved technologies in reforestation through a series of nursery, establishment techniques, and genetic trials; and, prepare a basis for large scale integrated forestry and forest industry projects by financing site assessment and inventory work, pilot plantations, a forest industries feasibility study, pulping tests, a task force to determine effective methods of optimizing private "Guzara" forest owner participation, and specialist training. The forestry specialist would supervise the nursery, establishment techniques and genetic trials, pilot plantations, and assist the project director in coordinating the other activities and follow-up project activities.
Specific Duties
2. (a) Initially set up the central nursery; assist with the selection, ordering and installation of equipment; nursery layout, irrigation system and supply of inputs;
(b) assist the project director to draw up detailed work program for trials and pilot plantations and select suitable areas for these;
(c) development of nursery and field cultural techniques for research trials and pilot plantations, including in-service staff training and assembly of unit costs of nursery and plantation operations;
(d) assist the project director with the selection of staff for overseas training and arrangements for itineraries;
(e) design, assessment and statistical analysis of nursery and field research, and in cooperation with Pakistan Forest Institute, conduct genetic research and development, including species and provenance trials, selection of seed stands and plus trees, creation of seed orchards, improved seed handling, and the design and analysis of progeny trials;
(f) assist the project director in selection of consultants in site assessment, genetics, pathology and other specializations as required;
(g) assist the project director in coordinating the other activities of the project and with the preparation of a follow-up project. ANNEX 3 Appendix 1 Page 2
Reporting
3. The forestry specialist will be responsible to and subject to the direction of the project director and will render to him such reports, plans, discussion papers and financial estimates as he, the project manager, may require.
Qualifications
4. (a) Technical Qualifications.
(i) age preferably between 35 and 50 years;
(ii) a degree in forestry (or equivalent) with pre or post graduate training in research method and its application to establishment and genetic trials;
(iii) at least five years experience in forest plantations establishment, preferably in upland areas of high rainfall intensity, including: . practical use of site assessment systems for plantations planning; . nursery management for plantations programs, especially pine species; . designing plantations lay-out, including firebreaks and roads; . preparing planting schedules and defining techniques to be followed; . methods of nursery and plantations research, species and provenance trials, and genetic improvement; . assembly of data on yields, input requirements and costs, for the various activities described; and, . co-ordination of work program with other agencies concerned with land development.
(b) General Qualifications.
(i) Candidates must be in good health;
(ii) Candidates must have demonstrated ability to form sound judgments and to work independently on their own initiative;
(iii) Candidates must be proficient in the English language; and,
(iv) because activities will be largely directed with the objective of securing active support of small-farmer forest owners, (Guzara forest owners), in a follow-up reforestation program, a pre-disposition to this aspect of the work will be needed and practical experience in this field would be an added advantage. ANNEX 4 Page 1
PAKISTAN
HAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECT Guzara Forest Owners Task Force
Background
1. The total designated forest land area in Hazara district is about 1.25.. acres, of ihich about I m. acres is privately owned land known as "Guzara". A large proportion of the Guzara land is marginal hill areas without tree cover and used mainly for grass fodder production and grazing. The Guzara land is partly privately owned and partly comunally owned "Shamlat" land. In both ownership patterns holdings are relatively small, averaging about four to five acres/family. Within the project area, some 50% (30,000 acres) of the existing Chir pine forests are Ouzara and the gross area of 90,000 acres for new plantations establishment is entirely Guzara. Developing a positive approach to forestry production and manage- ment among the Guzara owners is therefore crucial to the launching of the proposed intensive forestry and forest industries development. 2. The flrst forest conservancy rules for Hazara district were enacted in 1857, followed in 1872-73 by the first regular boundary settlement which established Reserved Forests vested in the government and Guzara forests, which were recognized as privately owned lands and were declared for conservancy primarily to ensure the requirements of owners and other rightholders for timber, firewood, grass-cutting and grazing. Government declared the right to conservancy management and a share in the proceeds of any sales. Further legislation in 1879 gave power to government to demarcate the Guzara forests and by 18846 some 150,000 acres has been demarcated. There fonlowed some disputes regarding the procedure and in 1894, the original demarcations were upheld and two types of Guzara forests recognized; demarcated forests in which new land could not be broken and undemarcated forests in which new land could be broken for cultivation. Both types continued to be subject to control of tree felling. The second boundary settlement in l904/5 saw small adjustments to the boundaries and these were again reviewed in the third settlement in 3935/6. All Guzara land, both demarcated and undemarcated on the ground, is recorded in the Land Revenue Maps known as Latha (1" = 220'). The Hazara Forest Act, 1936 codified the regulations for Guzara forest management.
3. Up until 1950, executive management of the Guzara forests vested in the Deputy Commissioner, with the Forest Department (FD) performing the function of technical managers, supervising the selection of trees for felling for private use and commercial sales on the basis of conservancy control. IUnder the Hazara Management of Waste Iand Rules, 1950, executive management was transferred to the FD. Since then, some 1O0,000 acres of undemarcated Guzara have demarcated on the ground and 30-year working management plans prepared for the more richly forested areas. ANNEX 4 Page 2
4. In the procedure for commercial exploitation of the Guzara forests, the FD select the trees to be felled, authorize the contractors to carry out the felling operations and receive full payment for the sales. At the time of marking for felling the local Patwaril/records the names of the owners on the felling schedules. Upon payment for the trees by the contractor, FD deduct 20% of the sale proceeds and forward the balance to the Deputy Commissioner, together with the felling schedules. This 80% of sale proceeds is then sent to the Tehsil office for payment to the beneficiary owners, some of whom reside up to 40 miles distance from the Tehsil office. The procedure results in long delays from time of sale to payment of owner; with as long as four years elapsing between the two transactions and commonly a delay of up to one year. Moreover, under the present management system, which relies upon natural regeneration to sustain 120-year rotation production of saw-timber, the quantity of timber marketed, per unit area of forest is very low and the interval between fellings of some 30 years, is excessively 2ong. These are some of the principal reasons why Guzara owners are dis- enchanted with the present management system, which provide little real income and no incentive to develop commercial forestry activities. The present pause in forest exploitation caused by the cessation of private contractorst operations and failure to implement an alternative harvesting system is further aggravating relationships between the private forest owners and FD.
5. Use of the Guzara forests to supply the domestic needs of owners and other rightholders is contro]led by FD', see para. 2 above, under the Guzara Rules of 1950, attached as Exhibit A. The administration of these rules is a major task occupying a significant proportion of the workload of FD staff and gives rise, together with infringements of commercial felling regulations, to numerous legal confrontations between FD and owners/right- holders. In 1974, there were some 58,000 outstanding cases, equal to about 20% of owners and rightholders, of breaches of forest rules in Hazara district. This demonstrates the need for a review of the present arrangements.
Approach to increased Guzara forest owner participation and productivity
6. All agencies at all levels of Government are well aware of the magnitude of the social problems that will accompany major forestry and forest industries development in the Hazara region. The Guzara forest owners presently exercise a land-use pattern which emphasizes grazing and fodder production rather than tree growth, which stems primarily from the historical approach to Guzara forest management discussed above. It is inevitable that the conversion of more land to forest use, and a change to intensive and concentrated forest management will introduce conflicts between the local people and those charged with administering the forestry and forest industry programs unless careful consideration is given to these problems.
I/ Official representative of Revenue Officer. nANNE 4 Page 3
7. However, these changes will enhance the opportunities for revenue generation on privately owned land which is currently under-utilized, and also bring employment potential in the forestry and industriai operations. Under well managed plantations, timber yields of over 100 ft. /acre/year are expected, compared with present average yields of less than 10 ft.'/acre/ year. Considerable orientation and motivation will be necessary from the beginning to ensure that the local population is prepared and able to take advantage of these opportunities.
8. During the course of the proposed Forestry Pre-investment project relatively small land areas will be involved, and there should be relatively little disturbance to traditional land-use patterns. It is essential that this period be effectively utilized to develop the necessary institutions and secure the participation of the local population before the commencement of large-scale planting operations in about 19800
9. A provincial inter-departmental group with operating funds provided by the Sarhad Development Authority has already initiated some studies in this field. The group is represented by the FD, Department of Cooperatives and the Economics Section of the University of NWFP, Peshawar and expects to complete a preliminary report by June, 1977. Aspects being studied include : ( i) the collection of base data of areas, numbers of forest owners and rightholders;
( ii) assessment of the present operation of the forest rules and possible improvement to these;
(iii) assessment of the existing land tenure system and its implications for successful tree growing program; ( iv) preliminary assessment of the economic returns from existing uses of the land considered suitable for tree growth vis-a-vis the proposed use of land under forestry; ( v) attitudes of the local population towards the chang- ing land-use and the working through cooperative societies or through the Forest Department or the mill; ( vi) collection of bench mark data on present income and income sources and, demographic information on labor force/earning member per family and their levels of employment, existing credit/subsidies facilities for land management activities, estimation of levels of the existing land-use technologies, and available social institutions and characteristics for trans- mission and adoption of innovations; Page 4
(vii) possibility of acquiring land for plantations development by rental, compensation payments, cash-wage payments to forest owners for plantations development and maintenQz}ce work, or a combination of these incomes;,(
(viii) possibility of forming Guzara forest owner "cooperatives". The possibility of "co- operatives" is being seriously pursued and applications for registration are presently being prepared for seven societies. It is envisaged that the societies would be affiliated to a Hazara Cooperative Board which would provide technical and management services to individual societies and be the coordinating agency for overall management of the forests; ( ix) possible projection of the socio-economic changes on account of the envisaged program; ( x) assessment of the development support communication activities needed to ensure public and private support and development program and formulation of the needed extension program on the basis of the socio-economic information collected in the foregoing study.
10. These various alternatives will require further study and development in order to work out satisfactory management arrangements and it is proposed that additional funds be made available from the proposed credit.
Project Activities 11. It is appropriate that the necessary studies and preparation of firm recommendations on which GONWFP can take decisions be undertaken primarily by a task force composed of qualified and dedicated people from within existing government institutions. Approaches must be developed on a flexible basis, responding to the expressed and observed reactions of the people concerned. The following notes are a guide towards achieving the desired objectives, and provide a basis for defining the scope of activity in this field. Detailed Terms of Reference for internal activities and any proposed external inputs to this effort would be prepared by the Department of Forestry with assistance from GONWFP and other relevant organizations.
12. The task force would be appointed by the Project Development Committee and consist of a forest officer familiar with Guzara forest administration and capable of conducting extension work; an economist with knowledge of the customs of the Hazara people, or similar forest
L/ This is discussed in General Directorate Bulletin No.9, PFI-1976, pp.15-17. ANNEX 4 Pa ge 5
dwellers and competent in evaluating alternative land uses; a sociologist with know]edge of the customs of Hazara people and experienced in conducting surveys and interpreting current attitudes to existing customs and regulations and responses to proposed changes; and a cooperative specialist knowledgeable in the formation of new community enterprises. A task force member wou]d be appointed as team leader, who, in consultation with the project director, would prepare a detailed work program for the team. Provision is included for employing the services of an internationally recruited sociologist to assist the team, as necessary, in compilation and assessment of base data, developing a strategy, evaluating results of studies and preparing action recommendations. In addition, the team would be supported by an agronomist and a livestock development specialist to evaluate and prepare proposals for complementary developments in farming systems and range management. It is expected these two specialists would be seconded to the team by the rnWFP Department of Agriculture and/or the Agricultural Research Council.
13. Initially the task force would collect and present additions] relevant data for the proposed development area including :
( i) family structure of the target population; felt needs; traditional social institutions;
( ii) educationa) background; employment patterns; assessment of employment potential;
(iii) forest land holdings; forest concessions, includ- ing those of rightholders; traditional patterns of forest use and forest usufruct;
( iv) attitudes to possible changes in forest land use and forest usufruct;
( v) agricultural holdings and proportion of family income derived from holdings;
( vi) numbers of livestock and grazing requirements, including an assessment of fodder and grazing in forest lands and rangelands used by the target population.
(vii) evaluation of present land use patterns in terms of manpower requirements and money costs; construct- ion of models of alternative land use under forestry production and comparison of these with present land use patterns;
(viii) present taxation (fees) on forest production;
( ix) present systems of payments for forest production to beneficiary Guzara owners;
( x) chains of communication between individuals, groups and government agencies.
34. Based on this information, proposals would be prepared (see also para. 27) for integrating the local population in the development program, including : ANNEX 4 Page 6 ( i) new institutions considered necessary; such as forest extension service; forestry publicity; "forestry cooperatives"; ( ii) forestry training schemes;
(iii) comp)ementary agricultural improvements, particularly in fodder production; assessment of possibilities for improved fodder production; proposals for technical package development, extension, input supply and credit to develop range lands pari passu with the proposed forest plantations development;
C iv) apportionment of areas for commercial forestry, local forestry and agriculture, including grazing;
( v) arrangements for financing forestry, including the advance- ment of credit for tree growing and payments for wood harvested or for land use and the possibility of advance payments to owners against future tree crops;
( vi) modification to existing forest rules, including present leve3s of taxes and administrative charges;
(vii) a phased program for the implementation of these proposals;
1$. The responses of the target population to the various project proposals and different approaches would be accurately measured and recorded to indicate the weighting given by these groups.
16. The task force would consider and make recommendations on
( i) methodology for expJaining to the target population the new strategies to be developed as the project progresses;
( ii) method of implementation of development activities and work program, including, for example, the role of "forestry cooperatives"; function of vi3lage leaders.
17. The task force would prepare three-monthly progress reports for the project development Committee and receive guidance from the Committee, and other relevant institutions as the Committee may direct, in the conduct of their work. Intermediate consultation between the task force and the Project Development Committee would be essential to ensure that the task force work is proceeding along lines acceptable to government and that specific proposals for approval by GCNWFP resulting from the work have the full support of the Project Development Committee.
18. The estimated costs for the task force are PRs. 660,000 and are detailed in Tab)e 2 of the main report. Provision is made for employment of 60 man-months of the Pakistan specialists discussed, two study tours by team members to review arrangements in other countries which have developed workable solutions to similar problems, six months of outside consul tancy services and field and office expenses including clerical staff. Draft terms of reference for the internationally recruited consultant and contained in Appendix 1. It is expected that the costs of the agronomist and livestock devel opmnt specialist would be met from the regular budgets of their department although cont&ngency Linano ng has been included to cover their costs if this is needed. AMNEX h Appendix 2 Page 1
PAKIS TAN
HAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECT
Guzara Forest Owners' Task Force
Consultant Sociologist : Draft Job Description and Terms of Reference
Background
1. The project aims to prepare a base over the next two to three years to implement an integrated forestry and forest industries development program in the Chir pine zone of Hazara district. Within the project area, some 58,o0o acres of existing natural Chir pine forests would form the nucleus resource base. About 30,000 acres of these forests are private "Guzara" forests, partly privately and partly communally owned but managed by the Forest Department under legislations dating back 100 years. In addition to the forested areas, there is some 90,000 acres of treeless Guzara land presently used for fodder gathering and rough grazing. It is proposed to reforest about 28,000 acres of these former forest lands as part of the development program. The Government financed in 1976/77 a preliminary study to evaluate the pattern of forest holdings, which averages some four to five acres per family, and investigate alternative methods to secure Guzara owner participation in reforestation. The project would finance an expansion of the study to a task force, including a forest officer, economist, sociologist and cooperative specialist, and provides for six months consultancy services of an internationally recruited sociologist or social anthropologist to assist the task force. The task force would be responsible for preparing for Government approval an action plan for achieving a workable system through which Guzara owners would participate in the development program.
Job Description
2. The main responsibilities of the sociologist would be :
(a) to provide scientific/methodological assistance in designing the quantitative and qualitative studies of the Guzara forest owners and other forest users, in line with the Project's objectives;
(b) to carry out the specific tasks discussed below and advise on the direction of the work of the task force;
(c) to participate in the interpretation of the team's findings and to work out the social engineering part of the project's overall strategy; and,
(d) to provide in-service training to the task force sociologist. ANNEX 4 Appendix I Page 2
3. The consultant's six months assignment would be divided in three time-sequences of two, one and three months respectively, so as to ensure his presence in the critical periods of the task force's work. During his work in Pakistan, the consultant will be stationed in Hazara district.
4. The consultant would prepare a comprehensive analytical report on his work which could be incorporated in the task force's findings. The report should cover the research questions defined in his Terms of Reference and include a description of the social methodology for securing the positive participation of the target population in the development program. The consultant would report directly to the Project Director, submitting a copy o2 his reports to IDA.
Terms of Reference
5. The consultant will assess the socio-economic information collected by the preliminary Study Team and will determine the need of further relevant data in view of the Project's objectives. In close cooperation with the economist and the sociologist of the task force, he will design the approach and the research procedures for the study of the project area population. More particularly, the consultant will assist the force: (a) to assess the demographic and socio-cultural structure of the group of Guzara Forest Owners (size, density, settle- ment patterns, family and kinship patterns, occupations, ethnic, tribal and other relevant groups residing in the project area);
(b) to identify the prevailing customary Guzara lan&dholding rights, as well as formal legal rights, on the grazing, forestry and arable lands; to detenmine the production and usufruct patterns, share cropping patterns and the transmittal of ownership or usufruct rights along family and/or tribal lines, through informal and formal inheritance rules. This information would form the basis to assess the economic and cultural acceptability of the changes promoted through the project in the existing ownership, production and usufruct systems;
(c) to study the traditional authority and power structure in the project area and the customary self-management institutions and bodies (e.g., village elders, headmen); based on this analysis, to evaluate the authority mechanisms for forest owners' participation in forestry development and for enforcing existing, and any proposed, rules of forestry management; particular attention should be given to the accepted systems of dispute/conflict settlement and methods of community sanction; AKNNEX 4 APpendix ] Page 3
(d) to study the income sources and the subsistence needs of the typical social unit in the project area and to estimate the economic impact of the conversion of more land to intensive forest use; e.g., can the target group afford the immediate loss of some immediate in exchange for 3ong-term benefits from forestry? benefits this what incentives or provisions would be needed to meet possible interim deficit?
to work out an appropriate strategy for "socia2 extension", (e) project by which the Project Management would explain the and the implementation procedure to the area population. For this purpose the consultant would help to organize experimental commmunity meetings and carry out consultations a with informal and formal leaders, so as to establish the task force's work, which could later be pattern for program; embodied in the management structure for the subsequent would (f) in the last sequence of his work, the consultant devote part of his time to a series of training sessions with the project staff, to impart the findings of the for studies made and convey the recomtended techniques the project's social extension methodology.
Qua] ifications social anthropologist 6. The consultant would be a sociologist or a Ph.D or M.A. degree, with field experience in studying preferably with a similar population. Experience in Pakistan or a country with forestry be given to structure would be an advantage. Preference would social and a keen interest consultant with an applied/operational orientation a productive capability in development work, particularly in enhancing the of the forestry zone population. ANNEX 5 Page 1
PAKISTAN
HAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECT
Draft Terms of Reference for Feasibility Study
I. OBJECTIVES AND BACKGROUND
1. The Governments of Pakistan and the North West Frontier Province are proposing a forestry and forest industry development program in the Hazara district, in the vicinity of the town of Mansehra. The forestry program will result in the clear-felling of existing stands of Chir pine, replacing them with pine and hardwood plantations, and the establishment of plantations on "waste lands" which do not presently have a forest cover. The industrial program envisaged would result in the setting up of a pulp and paper mill to utilize the fiber resources generated by these forestry operations.
2. To assist in the development of this program, an IDA credit is proposed to finance the necessary preparation work including an inventory of the existing forest, a site assessment for plantation establishment purposes, the development of plantation techniques, and a socio-economic study to examine the impact of the proposed program on the private forest owners and local residents and to develop mechanisms for ensuring their participation in the project. The IDA credit would also finance an industrial feasibility study to determine an appropriate development strategy and to evaluate its technical and economic feasibility. Preliminary detailed terms of reference for this study are contained in the following chapters.
3. A two-phase study is proposed. In the first phase (Section I to VI below),all of the necessary information concerning the resource base, markets, the existing industry and the socio-economic impact of any proposed pulp and paper development would be collected, evaluated and compiled in a series of interim reports. This information would then be used by the consultant to formulate one or more development programs for the Hazara region. At that stage, a detailed review of the consultant's proposals would be conducted, involving all of the concerned Federal and Provincial agencies, together with representa- tives of any organizations who may be considering participating in, or providing finance for, the proposed venture. The purpose of this review would be to agree on a project concept for final detailed analysis and the timing of the second phase of the study. The second phase of the study would entail a detailed feasibility study of the proposed project, presented in a form acceptable to likely financing agencies so that an immediate investment decision woulc be made, (see Section VII). AN=5 Page 2
II. REsOURC Bsz
A., General Outline 4. Fiber resource infomnation to be collected by the consultant would be of two types:
(i) a general review of all fiber resources in the country which could be suitable for paper making, in order to be able to assess the like)y directions of future developments in the pulp and paper sector, and
(ii) a specific and detailed analysis of the existing and potential EIazara resource base in order to provide a sound basis for planning the Hazara development.
B. Overall Resource Base
5. Collect and assess pertinent information relating to the current use and projected future availability of :
(i) waste paper;
(ii) wheat straw;
(iii) rice straw;
(iv) grass;
(v) bagasse; (vi) cotton linters; and
(vii) wood.
This information should be developed in a manner suitable for use in an assessment of the future growth prospects of the Pakistan pulp and paper industry (Para.31).
C. The Hazara Resource
ProJect Area
6. Review and evaluate available information concerning the project area and prepare a detailed statement of land area by vegetation cover and Page 3
land ownership. Delineate and define those areas to bs excluded from comaerciaJ exploitation because of topography, erosion control ox othEr factors.
7. Assess the land-needs of the Hazara populace for rnon-forestry uses (e.g.: crops, grain production, and grazing) and therebiy determine the net areas of land likely to be avai.lable for forestry development.
8. Review the status of studies and negotiations aizmed at securing the oooperation of the owners of private forest land (with and without tree cover). Discuss the form of likely agreements, and determine the financial implications of any such agreements, including:
(i) likely royalties to be paid to forest-land owners for existing timber; and
(ii) the mechanism for reimbursing private land-owners for establishing pulpwood plantations on their land.
Existing Forest Resource
9. Review and evaluate available information concening the existing forest resource and prepare a detailed statement of wood availability by species, log class, and land ownership. Conduct any necessary field checks to verify this data.
lo. Assess the timber needs of the Hazara populace and the production of industrial timber for present markets. Thereby determine the net volume of timber likeJy to be available for industrial usage. Also assess the present production of resin from chir pine, and take account of the effects on the resin industry of changes proposed in forest management in connection with the formulation of industrial proposals. This assessment should consider the possibility of resin extraction in a proposed mill.
11. Review current and alternative timber extraction and transportation methods and in conjunction with local authorities, propose methods suitable for intensive and large-scale operations.
12. Prepare estimates of the capital investments required for road construction, logging and transportation equipment, and of the cost of logging and transport operations. Develop estimates of the cost of securing, harvesting and delivering wood from the existing forests to a possible pulp mill site. Plantation Potential
13. Review and evaluate the program of research trials and pilot plantations which are currently in the initiation stage. Ch the basis- of this and any other available information, determine: ANNEX Page 4
(i) the potential suitability of indigenous and exotic species for reforestation; and
(ii) a realistically attainable planting program, giving due regard to any physical constraints which may exist;
(iii) probable rotation ages; and
(iv) likely attainable annual growth increments.
14. Compile the preceding data in sufficient detail to enable development planning to proceed on the basis of a realistic assessment of the future availability of plantation pulpwood.
15. Review and comment on projected plantation establishment costs. Determine the "stumpage" which would have to be paid at the time of harvesting p]antation wood in order to fully recover plantation establishment costs, and to reimburse land-owners in an equitable and agreed upon manner for the use of their land.
16. Review proposed methods of extraction and transportation from pulpwood plantations and prepare estimates of the cost of harvesting and delivering plantation pulpwood to a possible pulp mi.l site.
C. Interim Resource Potential Reports
17. Prepare and present the information concerning the overall pulp and paper-making fibre resource potential of the country in such a way as to facilitate the evaluation of projected expansion and new construction plans of the existing pulp and paper industry (para. 29).
III, MARKEIS
A. General Outline
18. Market studies should be designed to provide :
(i) Past, current and projected future domestic consumption figures broken down into major grade categories;
(ii) specification applicable to those grades, including any limitations as to the suitability of fiber-types for their production; and
(iii) the prices currently prevailing in the market, a review of price influencing factors, and an assessment of likely future price movements.
B. Consumption Data
19. Using Pakistan import statistics, export statistics from prodlucing ANNU -5 Page )
countries, production data from existing miliis, consumption data from major consumers, and any other information which may be available, develop estimates of past and current consumption of pulp and paper by major grade categories.
20. Assess the factors which will influence fu:ture pulp and peper consumption, including:
(i) population growth and general economic expansion;
(ii) expansion of specific pulp and paper consuming industries;
(iii) changing consumption patterns;
(iv) the effect of possible increased domestic supplies;
(v) tariffs and other Government policies which may affect import volumes;
21. On the basis of the preceding infonmation, prepare projections covering the likely range of future pulp and paper consugption. C. Grade Specification
22. Collect and evaluate any available information concerning specifications for important paper grade categories, as laid down by producers, consumers and importers of these grades.
23. In conjunction with the review of the existing industry and its expansion plans (Paras. 29 - 31) 4etetaine which grades, if any, carry specifications which cannot be met using the traditional fibre resources of the country.
24. Using the projected consumption data developed above (Para. 21) identify and quantify the likely supply gaps in the pulp and paper sector. Do Prices
25. Collect information concerning current and recent prices for major grades of pulp and paper using records of the principal producers and consumers.
26- Analyze these prices in terms of their key components, including
() c.i.f. price for imported grades;
(ii) mill uorices for domestically produced grades;
(iii) any tariffs, duties, excise tax, or sales tax which may be applied to imported or domestically produced grades; (iv) unJoading charges, port charges and other hand)ing charges as may be applicable; and
(v) freight charges from principal supply sources to principal consuming centers.
27. Discuss prices in terms of likely future trends including an assessment of the possible impact of :
(i) world pulp and paper prices;
(ii) the domestic production cost structure; and
(iii) Government pricing and taxation policies.
D. Interim Market Reports
28. Prepare a consolidated interim report presenting all of the material collected concerning pulp and paper markets in Pakistan, in such a manner that it can be used to assist in formulating one or more project alternatives for evaluation (Para. 33).
IV. REVIEW CF EfTlSTNG INDuSTRY
A. General Outline
29. The Hazara resource is of particular value in Pakistan because Iong-fibred pulp produced from pine has characteristics which cannot be matched by the non-wood fibres which have traditionally been used to make paper and paperboard. The purpose of reviewing the existing industry is therefore to ensure that the proposed Hazara Project complements and does not compete with other potential pulp and paper mill developments in the country, and that optimum usage is made of the scarce 3ong-fibred resource.
B. Status of the Industry
30. By visiting each of the sixteen operating pulp and paper mills in the country, prepare a profile of the industry, including :
(i) Up-to-date capacity and recent production figures, by grade;
(ii) fibrous raw material sources and costs, including a review of any problems which may be encountered in procurement;
(iii) normal market outlets, distribution channels and prices; and ANNEX 5 Page 7
(iv) an assessment of the profitability of the industry.
C. Plans and Potential for Expansion
31. Review with each company its expansion prospects, including an assessment of the availability of raw materials, market prospects, financial backing and other factors. Also, review with appropriate Government organizations any other plan for new capacity in the industry, thereby assess the likely growth in capacity of the pulp and paper industry in the short and medium term future.
V. SOCIO-ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT
32. The active participation of private land-owners will be an essential element of any Hazara forestry development project. A separate study is being financed to assist in developing the necessary institutions and securing the cooperation of the local population. As part of the Feasibility Study, the consultant will be required to analyze and review the findings of the socio-economic study and to ensure that these are fully taken into account prior to final project formu]ation.
VI. PROJECT FORMUIATION
33. By combining the information described above concerning the resource base, markets, the existing industry and proposed expansion, and socio-economic factors, formulate one or more projects designed to utilize the Hazara resource. The projects proposed should be aimed at meeting the needs for pulp and paper grades which are unlikely to be produced elsewhere in the country. Prepare comparative statements of cost and benefit for each alternative proposed.
34. At this stage, a detaiJed review of the work performed to date would be conducted. The review meetings would be attended by the consultants, representatives of concerned Federal and Provincial agencies, and representatives of any organization who may be considering participating in or providing finance for the proposed venture. The purpose of this review would be to agree on a project concept including an implementation schedule for final detailed analysis.
VII. DETAILED FEASIBILITY STUDY
A. General Outline 35. Ilaving agreed on a project concept, prepare a detailed feasibility study for it, to a standard acceptable to international financing agencies. ANNEX 5 Page 8
The feasibility study report would embody the principal findings of the interim studies previously described and, in addition, would provide detailed information pertaining to : (i) Site selection and site-related factors such as soil conditions, water supply, power supply, transportation of raw materials and products to and from the mill, and the requirement for any new infrastructure to support the project;
(ii) process considerations, including an evaluation of the processes selected with specific reference to the wood species involved and the proposed product mix and environmental aspects of the project;
(iii) capital investments required for plantation establishment, logging operations, and industrial plants;
(iv) the annual cost of plantation operations, logging, and mill operations, during each stage of the project's development;
(v) the financial anid economic rate of return of the project.
B, Site and Site-Related Studies
36. Make a general survey of sites in the project to be suitable area which appear for the construction of pulp and paper manufacturing facilities. Include an assessment of :
(i) The geographical location with respect to the resource and existing transportation routes;
(ii) land availability with respect to ownership, cost of acquisition, zoning, etc.;
(iii) geological and foundation conditions and ground water, fl ooding and earthquake characteristics;
(iv) the supply of suitable process water in terms of volume, reliability, and quality standards;
(v) the location and reliability of electric power sources and transmission lines, and the need to expand or enlarge such services to supply plant requirements; ANNEX 5 Page 9
(vi) the likely impact of eff3uent discharges, both air and water borne;
(vii) location of communities in the area, as they may provide amenities for mill personnel, or influence environmental considerations; and
(viii) the existence of, or possib]e future potential for any other development such as industrial, tourism or agriculture, which could have an effect on the project.
37. After consideration of these and any other relevant aspects, select a site for the proposed pulp and paper mill.
C. Mill Description and Definition
38. On the basis of decisions reached regarding mill size, the range of products to be manufactured, and the processes to be employed, specify the major process details and components required.
39. Prepare f ow sheets for a)l processes and operations, and preliminary layouts and drawings for the proposed mill.
40. Assess the capability of local equipment manufacturers and indicate the availability and cost of locally manufactured equipment components. Assess the requirements of plant and machinery which needs to be imported and indicate availability and cost.
D. Capital Cost Estimates
41. On the basis of the proposed design concepts, prepare detailed capita] construction cost estimates. Estimates should be prepared in a manner which will permit the subsequent application of a "shadow pricing" method of economic analysis and should include the following cost categories :
(i) Land acquisition;
(ii) site preparation including clearing, grading and installation of services such as sewers, water lines, power lines and roads;
(iii) structures, including material and erection costs;
(iv) equipment, including all charges incurred in purchase and delivery, and labor costs for installation;
(v) design engineering and construction supervision costs; and
(vi) infrastructural costs such as town site. Page 10
42. Prepare the above breakdown to show costs classified as follows : (i) By major mill departments or functions;
(ii) by labor component and material component; and
(iii) by domestic currency cost and foreign currency cost.
43. Prepare estimates of the non-construction capital costs required to bring the mill into production, including :
(i) Financing charges and legal expenses;
(ii) inventories of spare parts;
(iii) recruitment and training costs;
(iv) start-up expense;
(v) interest during construction; and
(vi) working capital.
ES Manufacturing Cost Estimates
44. Collect all necessary field data and prepare detailed manufacturing cost estimates for the products to be manufactured. Estimates should be presented in a manner which will permit the subsequent application of a "shadow pricing" method of economic analysis, and include :
(i) Raw material;
(ii) labor;
(iii) process chemicals and supplies;
(iv) power, fuel and water;
(v) maintenance materials;
(vi) administration and overhead costs; and
(vii) selling and delivery costs.
45. Include supporting schedules to show :
(i) Quantities and prices of process chemicals, and process supplies required;
(ii) labor manning tables and salary or wage rates applying; and
(iii) mill organization chart. Page 11
F. Financial and Economic Analysis
46. On the basis of the estimated product mix, mill]-net sales prices, plant capital requirements and manufacturing cost estimates, prepare the following statements :
(i) Earnings at various production levels; (ii) working capital;
(iii) preparatory and opening-up expenses;
(iv) debt retirement and interest schedules;
(v) depreciation schedules;
(vi) projected profit and loss for a 25-year operating period;
(vii) projected balance sheet; and
viii) projected cash flow for the period commencing with the initial input of cash to the end of a 25-year operating life.
47. Evaluate the investment opportunity offered by the project, by preparing and discussing :
(i) The internal rate of return;
(ii) a schedule of financial ratios, including interest coverage, debt service, and current ratios; and
(iii) a sensitivity analysis showing the affects on project returns of changes in key variables.
48. Examine the worth of the project to the economy of Pakistan, by preparing and discussing :
(i) An analysis of the economic benefits to the country, using a "shadow pricing" technique;
(ii) the projected foreign exchange balance of the Project, including estimated foreign exchange savings; and
(iii) a review of any other quantifiable or non-quantifiable costs or benefits to the economy to be expected as a result of the project. ANNEX 5 Page 12
VIII. REPORTS
49. For the review and project formulation meeting described above (Para. 34), the consultant will prepare draft reports concerning: (i) The resources base; (ii) markets;
(iii) the existing industry;
(iv) socio-economic factors; and
(v) potential project alternatives.
At the completion of the study, the consultants wil] finalize the above reports, and prepare a Project Feasibility Study which will embody their findings. This finsa report wiD also incorporate detailed capita) and manufacturing cost estimates, and projected financial and economic rates of return. PAKISTAN
HAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECT PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF COSTS
FOR FEASIBILITY STUDY ('000 PRs)
Item Quantity Rate Amount (man-months) Local Foreign Total
Consultant's Professional Staff Project Manager 12 - Plantation Specialist 3 - Forest Inventory Specialist 3 - Logging Engineer 3 average - Industry Specialist 5 PRs 70,800 4,600 4,600 - Market Analyst 5 per man-month - Cost Fngineers (2) 10 including - Financial Analyst 7 overheads - Process Engineer 5 - Back-up & Supervision 12
Counterpart Staff
- Feasibility Study Coordinator 12 average - Industry Specialist 6 PRs 3,300 - Merket Specialist 6 per man-month 90 - 90 - Civil Fngineer 1/ 3 including overhead - Inventory Specia4sst- 6 - - General Forester;O 0 - Clerical Servicesi/ -
Disbursements
- Travel and Expenses _ 350 400 750 - Communications - 20 20 40 - Beport Preparation - 20 90 110 - Miscellaneous - 20 120 140 Contingency (10%) - 50 520 570
Total 550 5,750 6,300
1/ It has been assumed that forestry and clerical counterpart staff would be available to assist in the study at no cost to the project. Other counterpart staff would be recruited on short-term assignments from PIDC or from industry. ANNEX 6 Page 1
PAKISTAN
HAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECT
Organization and Management
Project Management
1. The project headquarters would be established at Mansehra. The project will be under the management of the Chief Conservator of Forests as Project Director, who would be assisted by a fulltime assistant project director of the rank of Senior DFO/Conservator. The Project Director would be responsible for all forestry activities and, through the Secretary for Forests, to the Additional Chief Secretary, Planning and Development, for coordination of the work of the Guzara Forest Owners Task Force, pulping tests and feasibility study.
2. Inputs from a number of other agencies and advisers would be required including :
(i) the Department of Industry, Commerce and Mining, NWFP, through its Sarhad Development authority for continuity of its present involvement in forestry development in Hazara, (see Annex 4);
(ii) the Forest Research Institute, Peshawar for all aspects of forest research and pulping tests, (see Annex 2);
(iii) the Pakistan Industrial Development Corporation for the industrial feasibility study, (see Annex 5);
(iv) the Federal Inspector General of Forests for national forest policy; and,
(v) the various consultants who will be retained as part of the project, e.g., inventory and forestry specialists and Guzara Task Force team member, (see Annexes 1, 2 and 4), and follow-up project preparation studies.
3. A Project Development Committee would be formed, composed of the Additional Chief Secretary, P & D, NWFP as Chairman, the Inspector General of Forests, GOP, the Secretary for Forests, NWFP, the Secretary for Industry, NWFP, the Technical Director, Pakistan Industrial Development Corporation, and Chief Conservator of Forests (Secretary). The committee would receive 3- monthly reports from the project director of project progress and give directions to the project director for coordinating the various activities and inputs of the agencies discussed in para. 2. ANNEX 6 Page 2
4. The project directorwould set-up working relations with the institutions providing advisory and technical inputs, including Pakistan Forest Institute, Pakistan Industrial Development Corporation, Department of Industry, Commerce and Mining Development, NWFP, Sarhad Development -.it3-oYity, Department of Cooperatives and University of Peshawar, and schedule timing of these specialist inputs to correlate with the timetable oC project activities (see Table 1 of main report). Funds for the payment of these specialist services would be channelled through the project manager, except that special arrangements would be made for the feasibility study. He would also undertake the primary arrangements for engaging other specialist consultants and report progress to the Federal Inspector General of Forests.
5. The project director will also be assisted by a fulltime plantations specialist for the first three years (see Annex 3); an administrative officer (Grade 17); a site assessment section and an inventory section, the team leaders of which will be responsible to the project director. Other project staff would include three Range Forest Officers, six foresters and supporting clerical and junior staff. The activities of the Guzara Forest Owners Task Force would be coordinated by the project director (see Annex 4) and the team leader of this group will make interim and final reports through the project director to the Project Development Committee.
6. Based on the various components of the project, the project group would comprise the staff and specialist services listed in Appendix 1. The GONWFP would need to assign these staff from existing duties to the project and, because of the importance of staff continuity in many of the technical operations, undertake that key staff would remain in post for the project period.
Costs
7. The project would finance the construction of a headquarter's office and store, three senior staff houses, two range forest officer houses, three forester/forest guard hostels; the office/store and staff houses would be at Mansehra and junior staff hostels in the plantation areas; transport and office and field equipment; staff salaries and annual operating costs. Details of the physical requirements and costs are contained in Table 2 of the main report.
Follow-Up Project Preparation
8. By year-3 of the project, it is expected that sufficient plantations experience wi]ll have been gained, firm conclusions reached with respect to forest industries development, and, effective participation of Guzara Forest owners secured, to prepare follow-up large scale plantations and forest industries projects. At this stage of the project, the project director, under the direction of the Project Development Committee, would take primary ANNEX 6 Page 3
responsibility for initiating and monitoring the work, including further studies as may be needed, of follow-up project preparation. PRs. I million is included in the project costs for this work Which would provide for additional studies and an increase in project staff to assist in project preparation. Studies and other expenditure items exceeding PRs. 50,000 (US$5,000) would require prior agreement with the Association. Future Deve]opment
9. As a later development, it is possible that project activities would be taken over by a newly formed Forest Industrial Development Corporation. The chart attached at Appendix 2 indicates how the initial linkages would be maintained and a possible transition from the phase I technical development project to a phase 2 full-scale plantations organization. A similar transition could be followed for the industrial development. AEX 6 ARgSdi 1
Summary of Project Group staff and Specialist Services2I
Designation Recruited From Duration of kpointment
NurserZ and Plantations 1 Project Director/Asst. Project Director NWFP Forest Dept. 5 years 1 Nursery and Plantations Specialist Internationally 3 years I Range Officer (Nursery) NWFP FD or P.F.I. 5 years 1 Range Officer (Plantations) " 5 years I Range Officer (Genetics) 5 years Other ftecialists Internationally 3 man-months Othr Specialisto P.F.I. 30 Site Survey and Inventory I Survey Officer (ACF) NWFP FD or PFI 2 years 1 Soil Chemist PFI ¼ time 1 Iab. Technician n ½ n 1 Draughtsman n½n 1 Inventory Supervisor (ACF) Aerial Inventory or I year P.F.I. 5 Range Forest Officers n1 FD 1 2 Photo Interpreters n ½s time 1 n I Photo Mapping Specialist n 1 n 2 Draughtsmen or p.F.I. I n I Inventory Specialist Internationally 3 to 12 months
Pulping Tests
1 Pulp Technoloogist PFI, PIDC or industry 6 months, initially Ouzara Forest OFners Task Force
I Forest Officer (ACF) NWFP, FD 1½ years I Sociologist ) Universities, Other 'f n 1 Economist ) Government Agencies or 1 n 3 Cooneratives Specialist ) private sector 1 n 1 Sociologist Internationally 6 Industrial Feasibility Study
I Industry Specialist PIDC or industry 6 months 1 Market Specialist PIDC or industry 6 months 1 Civil Engineer PIDC or industry 6 months I Project Manager ) 12 months I Plantation Specialist ) 3 months 1 Forest Inventory Specialist ) 3 months 1 Oggng Engineer ) 3 months 1 Industry Specialist ) Internationally 5 months I Markot Analyst ) recruited consultancy 5 months 2 Cost Engineers ) 20 man-months I Financial Analys ) 7 months I Process &igineea ) 5 months Back-up Speciali,s ) 12 man-months j Sea details of staffing under the various project activities in Table 2 of the main report. ANNEX 6 Appendix I Page 2
Designation Recruited From Duration of Appointment
All Programs I Administrative Officer GCNWFP 5 years 20 Foresters (Inventory) NWFP FD 1 year 6 Foresters n n 5 years 2 Forest Guards (Site Asssessment) n 2 years 6-8 Forest Guards n n 5 years 4 Clerical Staff (Inventory) GONWFP I year 3 Clerical Staff 5 years 5 Drivers (Inventory) 1 year 2 Drivers (Site Assessment) 2 years 4 Drivers 5 years 10 Peons/Sweepers 5 years Dia,rgam ifJustmting possible maniagement chan,&es ANNI= 6 ar fol3ow-up prolets inlementation 2
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- A~~~~~~~~C4 PAKISTAN
HAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECT
Pre)iminary Program Evaluation
Introduction
1. An important objective of the proposed technical development project will be the selection and detailed evaluation of the overall program of forestry development for the Hazara region. A broad assess- ment of likely program results is however, desirable. On the basis of the preliminary information now available, one possible program has been devised which appears to provide a reasonable match between anticipated fibre availability and the demands of the pulp and paper market. A preliminary evaluation of this program, has been made to indicate whether the activities of the technical development project are likely to lead to forestry and forest industries projects which are viable. This is discussed in the following paragraphs.
The Program
2. Key features of the program as presently conceived are as follows :
(i) The technical development project would commence in 1977 and extend for five years;
(ii) by 1980, large scale commercial planting of both pine and hardwood species would begin. Planting would stabilize at a level of about 5,900 acres annually, sufficient to meet the fibre needs of the proposed pulp and paper mill;
(iii) the first stage chemical pulp mill would start up in I98h, using chir pine from the existing natural stands. This mi]l would have a production capacity of 26,000 tons of bleached pulp and 8,000 tons of unbleached pulp. Pulp would be flash-dried, baled, and sold to existing paper mills; and
(iv) a chemical-groundwood pulp mill (pulping plantation hardwood) and a newsprint mill would start up in the latter part of 1979. Approximately 10,000 tons of bleached pulp from the chemical pulp mill would be diverted to newsprint production. At full capacity, annual saleab]e output from the pulp and paper mill would be as follows :
- 16,000 tons bleached pulp - 8,000 tons unbleached pulp - 4o,000 tons newsprint Page 2
Costs and Benefits 3. The following preliminary cost and price data have been used to estimate the likely return from such a program.
(i) Although there would be differences due to the type of land and the species to be planted, overal1 planting costs would average US$140 per acre;
(ii) the type of forest (natural or plantation) and the species would give rise to differing logg- ing and transport costs. An overall average of US$6.85 per cubic meter has been used.
(iii) payments to the owners of eidsting timber (both public and private) wil: have to be negotiated. For this study a figure of PRs 5 per cubic foot (US$17.65 per cubic meter) has been used. -2/ (iv) the plant capital required for the pulp mill and subsequent newsprint mill addition would total US$135 million with an additional US$6 million in working capital. Conversion costs have been estimated on the basis of chemical, energy, labor and other costs currently prevailing in Pakistan.
(v) an average mill-net price for both pulp and paper of US$550 has been used. Actual delivered prices in Pakistan have ranged from US$500 to US$1,000 over the past two years, but are currently at about the US$500 level. 4. Using these estimates, a preliminary projection of project financial costs and benefits has been prepared (Table 1). The financial internal rate of return determined from this projection is 11%; the economic rate of return, using a shadow value of 4C% of market wage for unskilled labor and an exchange rate of PRs. 11 - US$1 ,/is 14%. Additional unquantified benefits are improved watershed management and employment generation, both of which are significant. Conclusion 5. Although not overly attractive, the projected rate of return (which covers forestry plantations, logging operations, and the pulp and paper industry) is typical of the levels currently found in projects of this type.
3/ Based on last data available for contract purchase of Chir pine, 1974. 2/ These shadow values have been taken from the Appraisal of the Khairpur Ti]e Drainage and Irrigated Farming Development Project (Khairpur II) Report No. 106 2-a PAK, June 1976. ANNEX 7 Page 3
It is confidently expected that similar results would be obtained from a replication of this integrated approach to forestry development, for example with a combined plantations/sawaill/boirds mill in Mirpur or Murree Mills Chir pine zones. On the basis of the data presented here, it appears likely that the Technical Development Project will lead to forestry and forest industry projects which will be capable of generating acceptable rates of return. PAKISTAN HAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECT
PRELIMINARY PROJECTION OF COSTS AND BENEFITS-" (U0$4Million)
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992-99 2000-07 2008
Forestry Operations
- Plantation Establishment 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.51- 0.5 0.5 0 .51/ - - - Royalties on Standing Timber - - - - 1.6 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 - - - Logging and Transporting - - - - 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.6
- Total Cost of Forestry Operations 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 3.2 4.3 5.0 5.5 5.5 5.3 4.7 4.9 4.9 1.6 1.6
Industrial Operations
- Plant Capital 6.0 8.0 20.0 25.0 6.0 0.6 0.6 6.0 18.0 21.0 5.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 - - Working Capital - - - - 3.0 1.0 - _ _ 2.0 - - - (6.0) - Operating Costs _ _ _ _ 4.4 5.8 4.9 5.2 5.2 7.0 8.4 8.8 9.4 9.4 9.4
- Total Cost of Industrial Operations 6.0 8.0 20.0 25.0 13.4 7.4 5.5 11.2 23.2 30.0 13.4 9.8 10.4 10.4 3.4
Revenues
- Pulp Sales (tons) - - - - 17,000 26,000 31,000 34,000 34,000 33,000 28,000 26,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 - Paper Sales (tons) - - - - - 6,000 24,000 34,000 40.000 40.000 40,000
- Total Mill Net Sales Revenues _ _ 9.4 14.3 17.1 18.7 18.7 21.5 28.6 33.0 35.2 35.2 35.2
Net Benefit (Cost) (6.5) (8.5) (20.8) (25.8) (7.2) 2.6 6.6 2.0 (10.0) (13.8) 10.5 18.3 19.9 23.2 30.2
1/ Pine planting would continue after 1988, and eucalyptus planting after 1999, but the costs have not been included here because the benefits would not be obtained during the period of the projection. 2/ The financial internal rate of return is 11%, the economic internal rate of return is 14%. For a discussion of these results see Attachment 7 page 3. Appendix I
PAKIS3N
RAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECT Preliminary Program Evaluation
Estimated CommerciaJ Plantations Costs
PRs/Acre
Capital Cost of Nurseries, Staff Housing and Office Buildings 65 Equipment and Transport ho Roads and Firebreaks 100
Surveys 5 Nursery SeedJings 180
Planting, Weeding, Beat-Up 320
Protection 20 Overheads and Administration 280
Sub-Total 1,010
Maintenance over Rotation (20%) 200
Contingencies (10%) 120
-,330 ANNEX 7 Appendix 2 Page 1
PAKISTAN
HAZARA FORESTRY PRE-INVESTMENT PROJECT
PreliminarY Prograsm Evaluation
Logging Methods Suitable for the Program
1. This program, as it is now conceived, wi]l have two different sets of logging conditions with which to contend. Ultimately it is expected that the pulp mill will be supplied from 20 year old coniferous and 10 year old hardwood plantation. This will call for a suitable logging method to annually clear-cut about 10 million cubic feet of unifornly small diameter trees from about 6,000 acres of plantation. Some of the plantations will be in large contiguous blocks and some might be very small, scattered areas of private farm forests. Topography will vary from gently rolling to very steep, with most of the area in the steep category.
2. Considering the large numbers of unskilled laborers who are presently in need of work in Pakistan, it is recommended that pulpwood extraction from these future plantations use labor intensive methods, with mechanization being used only in the form of trucks for hauling from the forest to the pulp mill. Table 1 details estimated costs of the plantation logging. If, in the future, availability of labor decreases and labor costs increase, then mechanized loading methods and possibly cable extraction systems might be considered. But, at the present time, mechanization, which would require purchase of sophisticated machinery and spare parts from abroad, is not recommended.
3. The other set of logging conditions which must be considered in this prcject are those connected with extraction of the present chir pine forests preparatory to establishing pulpwood plantations. Many of the trees in this forest are large, mature trees in stands presently being managed under the uniform shelterwood system. The conditions under which these stands will be logged for this project will depend on GOP decisions regarding timing of conversion from the present scattered cutting under a 120 year rotation to that of clear cutting and planting under a 20 year rotation. Logging conditions will also depend on decisions regarding how much of this present chir pine forest will be used to supply the proposed new pulp mill instead of being used to help supply construction timber into the market.
4. To provide an adequate pulpwood supply for an early start up of the pulp mill and to accomplish a smooth transition of the existing chir pine forest to a proper distribution of plantation age classes, it will be necessary to commit all of the existing chir pine in the project area to an end use as pulpwood only. This will call for a logging method suited to clear-cutting the existing 58,000 acres of forest over a 16 year period, beginning in ]984 and ending in 1999. It is recommended that the same labor intensive methods be used as are recommended for plantation logging. The principal difference is the variability in diameters of the trees in the natural chir forest. Some of the trees in the natural forest will contain logs too large in diameter to be easily extracted by hand methods, so they will have to be split at the falling site into manageable sizes. Table 2 details estimated costs of this operation. ANNEX 7 Appendix 2 Page 2
5. Present logging methods extract only sawn scants from individually marked, large trees. These trees are felled and sawn or hewn into scants averaging about 6 inches by 10 inches by 8 to 12 feet long. These are usually carried by mules for distances of up to four miles down the L:ountain side to the nearest collection point on a road. Some small diameter round posts are also brought out as well as the larger side cuts. These are all sold at auction at the roadside depot. What remains in the forest is collected by villagers for firewood, so in effect very little is wasted except sawdust and chips.
6. The proposed logging operation will differ from these existing operations in several ways :
(i) The entire stand will be clear-cut including small diameter trees}
(ii) aJl of the wood will be extracted by manual labor or by animal power down the mountain side, most in round form, with only logs too large to hand)ne being split. No sawing will be done, as splitting is cheaper and produces an acceptable wood form for pulpwood;
(iii) many contour type truck roads will be built so that maximum extraction distance downhill frcm stump to road will be about 400 meters;
(iv) logs need not be moved to sale depots, as they can be loaded on trucks for hauling to the pulp mill from whichever point they most naturally reach the road.
7. The principa] preparation for this type of logging will be the planning, engineering, and construction of many miles of forest truck roads. To estimate logging costs, we have suggested a road density of one mile of road for each 160 acres of productive plantations (25 meter per hectare) at a construction cost of R8 40,000 per mile. Actual road costs per cubic foot of wood-produced will also depend on how much road will have to be constructed across agricultural lands n*t under forest cover and whether part of the cost of such multi-purpose roads could come from another source. It is recommended all construction except drilling and blasting of rock be by hand methods.
8. For the first five years of the mills operation (1984 through 1988) all logging will be in the natural chir forests. This will require at least 110 miles of new road to serve between 17,000 and 18,000 acres of reserved and guzara forests. Since logging must start in 1983 for a mill start up of 1984, planning and engineering for logging road construction must start by at least 1980 so that road construction for the first 2,000 acres is finished by the end of 1982. About 20 to 25 miles of road will need to be completed every year thereafter until 1989 when logging of hardwood plantations will commence. For the 10 years after 1989 about 40 to 50 miles of new road will need to be completed each year. After about the year 2003, all logging ANNEX^ 7 kopendix 2 Page 3 wlll be in plantations where roads have been previously constructed and road cost wil thereafter be reduced to the cost of maintenance only. 9. Two likely sources of bottlenecks in this type of logging operation are: an adequate number of trucking contractors with suitable contracts for hauling pulpwood without delay; and adequate advance planning, engineering, and road construction so log extraction distances can be held to a minimum.
J0. No specific training programs are anticipated for this logging and road construction operation, since it contemplates essentially the same manual methods now being used. However, the logistical problems of employing, caring for, and supervising such a large number of men will. have to be recognized and allowances made far enough in advance so as not to delay operations.
11. There will likely be conflicts between desirable logging block boundaries for the new system of clear-cutting with short extraction distances to new roads and the presently existing compartment boundaries as demarcated on the ground and in working plan maps for reserved and guzara forests. The locations of the present compartment boundaries were selected so as to have a homogenous timber stand within each compartment. This facilitated allocation of each compartment into PBI, PBII, PBI3I, or PB IV status for control of the uniform shelterwood system. Since this management system will be replaced by clear-cutting to a plantation system, this previous criteria for compartment boundaries will no longer be valid. New compartment boundaries should be selected based on the new logging system of short extraction to frequent roads and also based on requirements of the even-aged plantations which will thereafter constitute the forest. Ownership boundaries within new compartments can be designated and payments made accordingly, without necessarily making the new plantation compartment boundaries coincide with ownership boundaries. Appendix 2 Table 3 ESTIMATED COST OF PULPWOOD UNLOADED AT MILL FROM PINE OR HARDWOOD PLANTATIONS (excluding stumpage payments) 7
Based on 5 million cubic feet per year from 2,500 acres of pine plantations and 5 million cubic feet per year from 3,500 acres of hardwood plantations produced at the rate of 40,000 cubic feet per day for 250 working days per year. All work by manual labor except trucking and rock drilling and blast- ing during road construction.
Number of Number of Cubic feet Men Foremen Logging Cost per man aay @ Rs 15/day @Rs 25/day Rs per cubic feet
Felling 420 96 10 0.04
Debranching 247 162 16 0.06
Bucking 290 138 14 0.05
Extraction to Road 70 572 60 0.21
Loading 214 188 20 0.07
Unloading 250 160 20 0.06
Trucking (Based on current contract prices) 0.50
Road Construction 156 26 0.13 (Pine Plantations 15.6 miles/yr)
Road Construction 219 35 0.17 (Hardwood Plantations 21.9 miles/yr)
Supervision 96 0.12 (Pine Plantations) Supervision 105 0.13 (Hardwood Plantations)
Supervision 70 0.09 (No Road Construction)
Overhead - 0.25
Pine Plantations Hardwood Plantations Plantations with Requiring Requiring Roads Previously Road Construction Road Construction Constructed
1.49 1.54 1.33
.22 (Contingency 15%) .23 .20
Rs 1.71 per cft Rs 1.77 per cft Rs 1.53 per cft
(US $6.16 per m 3) (US $6.37 per m3) (US $5.51 per m3 ) 1] Cost of p]antations establishment has been included as a direct cost in the model. ANNEX 7 Axpendix 2 Table 2 ESTIMATED COST OF PULPWOOD UNLOADED AT MILL FROM EXISTING CdIR PINE FORESTS (including atiwpage payment)
Based on 5 million cubic feet per year jroduced at the rate of 20,000 cubic feet per day during 250 days per year. All work by manual labor except trucking and rock drilling and blasting during road construction.
Number of Number of Cubic feet Men Foremen Logging Cost per man day @PRs 15/day @PRs 25/day PRs per cubic feet
Felling & Bucking 60 333 30 0.30
Splitting (25 % of volume) 50 100 5 0.08
Extraction to Road 30 667 40 0.56
Loading 214 94 10 o.08
Unloading 250 80 10 0.07 2/ Trucking (Based on current contract prices) 0.50
Road Construction 208 20 0.19 (20.8 miles/yr) 3/2
Overhead and Administration, ineluding staff salaries and ancillary 15O(ancillaries) 40 (staff) 0.25 workers
Contingency @ 15% 0.30
Royalty 5.00
Rs 7.33/cft (US $26.39/m )
Total Labor Required - 1,632
Total Foremen and Staff - 155
*Total Manpower Requirement - 1,787
*Does not include personnel engaged in contract trucking.
3 1J Based on average standing volume of 15OO ft. /acre. 2] At PPs 5/mile for 5-ton (400 ft.3) load over 40-mi3e round-trip. 2/ Based on roading density of I mile/1 6 0 acres. J 55r CF M_ CHINA 73-00- _ _ 3-15 _ _ _ _ _
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