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November 24, 2014 November 24, 2014 KOREA Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) SM Entertainment (041510/Buy/TP: W46,000) Lower TP KOSPI 1,978.54 13.70 0.70 Leaving the worst behind KOSPI 200 252.34 2.44 0.98 KOSDAQ 541.93 -2.05 -0.38 Sector News & Analysis Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Securities (Overweight) Volume Value KOSPI 322,592 5,477 Investing in brokerages from an ROIC perspective KOSPI 200 94,084 4,227 Steel/Non-ferrous metals (Overweight/Neutral) KOSDAQ 350,825 2,082 China's rate cuts offer nothing more than short-term relief Market Cap (Wbn) Value KOSPI 1,212,362 KOSDAQ 140,488 KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 1,659 1,314 345 Institutional 1,349 1,258 91 Retail 2,420 2,863 -443 KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 131 153 -23 Institutional 88 134 -46 Retail 1,859 1,789 70 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 1,212 875 338 KOSDAQ 25 22 3 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 430 388 67 KOSDAQ 406 541 75 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value SAMSUNG SDS 404,000 4,000 374 KODEX LEVERAGE 10,875 215 312 Samsung Electronics 1,220,000 -3,000 251 Halla Climate Control 42,000 -5,500 209 SK Energy 98,500 9,600 182 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Com2us 147,100 4,500 174 Gamevil 164,200 21,400 112 Daum Communications 144,400 2,000 92 Bosung Power Tec 4,940 65 82 PATI Games 34,350 4,450 39 Note: As of November 24, 2014 This document is a summary of a report prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. (“Daewoo”) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. SM Entertainment (041510 KQ) Leaving the worst behind Entertainment 3Q review: OP of W14.2bn, hurt by 18% YoY fall in yen SM Entertainment reported 3Q consolidated revenue and operating profit of W78.6bn Results Comment (-4.3% YoY) and W14.2bn (-4.7% YoY), respectively. November 24, 2014 Japan revenue contribution fell materially due to 1) yen depreciation and 2) royalty income from TVXQ’s concert performances being deferred to 4Q. From 1Q14 to 3Q14, Japan accounted for 21.7% of non-consolidated revenue, down sharply from 46.7% in (Maintain) Buy 2012. Target Price (12M, W) 46,000 TVXQ’s Japan concert royalties to be recognized in 4Q Despite worries, SM Entertainment artists are c ontinuing to expand their presence in Share Price (11/21/14, W) 33,150 Japan. We expect the company to book royalties from TVXQ’s Japan concerts ( held in April with 650,000 attendees) in 4Q. For the full year, we estimate S M Entertainment Expected Return 39% artists to attract 1.82mn concertgoers in Japan, u p from 1.56mn in 2013 and 900,000 in 2012. For 4Q, we forecast consolidated revenue of W73.6bn and operating profit of OP (14F, Wbn) 36 W11.9bn. Consensus OP (14F, Wbn) 46 Retain Buy, but Cut TP to W46,000 EPS Growth (14F, %) -18.8 2014 is shaping up to be one of SM Entertainment’s worst years, marred by the exit of Market EPS Growth (14F, %) 1.4 two EXO members, the scandal involving Girls’ Generation member Jessica, P/E (14F, x) 44.7 unprecedented yen depreciation, and a huge tax fine. Market P/E (14F, x) 12.9 KOSDAQ 543.98 Despite these negative events, the 3Q earnings report showed that 1) domestic and overseas concerts, album releases, and management activities remain on track, and 2) Market Cap (Wbn) 684 EXO, despite having no prior presence in Japan, has already had three sold-out concerts Shares Outstanding (mn) 21 in the country (a total of nine are scheduled by year-end). Free Float (%) 78.2 Foreign Ownership (%) 10.6 Although the entertainment industry by nature is highly unpredictable, we could see Beta (12M) 1.73 several positive catalysts in 2015, including a potential strategic partnership (similar to 52-Week Low 24,450 YG Entertainment’s alliance with LVMH) that could take SM’s global business to the next 52-Week High 53,200 level. It is widely believed the company has already received a number of offers from (%)(%)(%) 1M1M1M 6M6M6M 12M12M12M global media, telecom, and internet companies. We also think the company’s China Absolute 6.8 -27.5 -19.6 business could gather steam in 2015, as a drama coproduction is set for early in the Relative 9.4 -27.2 -26.0 year, and more detailed schedules for artist ventures are emerging. Furthermore, the company’s new business initiatives, such as the mobile game SuperStar SMTOWN and 150 SM Entertainment KOSDAQ the musical theater COEX Artium (which opens on December 20th) could do surprisingly 130 well. 110 90 That said, we reduced our 2014F-15F EPS by 19.1% and 20.3%, resp ectively, in light of 70 1) the impact of yen depreciation confirmed in the 3Q earnings report, and 2) delays in the company’s expansion in China. As such, we lower our target price by 20% to 50 11.13 3.14 7.14 11.14 W46,000 (from W58,000), but keep our Buy rating intact. Daewoo Securities CCo.,o., Ltd. FY (Dec.) 12/11 12/12 12/13 12/14F 12/15F 12/16F Revenue (Wbn) 143 241 269 281 309 338 [Internet/Game/Entertainment] OP (Wbn) 26 61 41 36 47 53 Chang-kwean Kim OP margin (%) 18.2 25.3 15.2 12.8 15.2 15.7 +822-768-4321 NP (Wbn) 23 40 19 15 42 46 [email protected] EPS (W) 1,228 1,994 913 741 2,043 2,214 ROE (%) 20.6 24.7 8.5 6.4 15.8 14.7 Jeong-yeob Park +822-768-4124 P/E (x) 33.2 22.8 48.4 44.7 16.2 15.0 [email protected] P/B (x) 6.9 4.4 3.9 2.7 2.3 2.0 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including t he U.S. PLEASEPLEASEPLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSUREDISCLOSURESS & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.REPORT. Securities Investing in brokerages from an ROIC perspective ROIC down cycle comes to an end Overweight (Maintain) Although the state of the securities sector is still far from ideal, positive changes are unfolding rapidly. For years, brokerage stocks have declined in line with the fall in the Outlook Report industry’s return on invested capital (ROIC). However, as firms began reduci ng their invested capital (equity and human capital), ROIC has been picking up since 2014, and November 20, 2014 should continue to do so in 2015. We expect profit growth of around 20% in 2015, although our figure could change depending on the IPO of Korea Exchange (KRX). Daewoo Securities Co.,Co., Ltd. Daewoo Securities CCo., Ltd. () = [Securities/Insurance] () + () Gil-won Jeong +822-768-3256 Based on the simple formula above, we believe that once the reduction of human capital [email protected] has been fully exhausted, the only way for brokerage firms to raise their ROIC will be to Ju-hyun Kim either scale back their equity capital or increase their net revenue. The former depends on +822-768-4149 whether the firm can repurchase shares or increase its dividend payout, while the latter [email protected] dep ends on whether the firm can improve its traditional businesses, or find new opportunities by leveraging its equity. In the end, capitalizing on low interest rates and policy trends is key Encouragingly, the industry environment is becoming increasingly favorable to brokerages’ net revenue. Here, we highlight an example to illustrate our point. An investor can currently get a loan from a commercial bank at an interest rate of 4%. If the investor were to invest the money in an ELS with Samsung Life and Sam sung F&M as its underlying assets, the investor could expect an 8% rate of return. Samsung Life and Samsung F&M both have equity capital two to three times the regulatory requirement. With industry growth stalling, the insurers are likely to spend their ca pital on dividends and share repurchases, which should support their share prices. If share prices were to plummet 50% within the next three years, the investor would suffer a capital loss, but we believe the risk/reward tradeoff is still attractive.
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