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SALZMAN-DISSERTATION-2016.Pdf BRICS IN RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY BEFORE AND AFTER THE ONSET OF THE CRISIS IN UKRAINE by Rachel S. Salzman A dissertation submitted to the Johns Hopkins University in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Baltimore, Maryland December 11, 2015 © Rachel S. Salzman All Rights Reserved Abstract The focus of this dissertation is the evolution of BRICS in Russian foreign policy. It tells this overarching story through the lens of three overlapping narratives. The first is the evolution of Russian elite rhetoric about the West, and the increasing antagonism of that rhetoric, since the turn of the millennium. The second is how Russian leaders have framed the idea of the BRICS group in the narrative they created about Russian relations with the West and Russia’s role in the international system. The third is the story of BRICS itself: its development as a group in the international arena, its past achievements and future prospects, and its broader impact on global governance. The main argument is as follows: BRICS has become more important to Russia as a result of the rupture in relations with the West following the onset of the crisis in Ukraine in February 2014. Simultaneously, BRICS itself has begun to constitute an important part of a changing world order, primarily because the imbalances in global economic governance it originally sought to address remain unresolved. These two phenomena, combined with the silence of the BRICS countries in the face of Russian violations of international norms during the Ukraine crisis, are evidence of an accelerating fragmentation of the current international order. The dissertation uses rhetorical analysis as the primary methodology. Political rhetoric is an indication of what leaders would have the public understand to be true, even if it is not. When the rhetoric changes, it gives insight into a shift in how leaders wish their ii positions to be perceived. When that shift is precipitated by dramatic changes in a country’s internal or external environment, an adjustment in rhetoric can be indication of where policy may be headed even before those concrete changes are visible. Rhetoric, therefore, is an integral part of the policy process. In focusing on this area of policy creation, this dissertation provides a window into the role of rhetoric in the conceptualization of Russian foreign policy, and the extent to which that rhetoric becomes manifested in reality. Dissertation Committee Members 1. Bruce Parrott, Ph.D. (SAIS/Johns Hopkins University) – first reader 2. Charles Gati, Ph.D. (SAIS/Johns Hopkins University) – second reader 3. Andrew Kuchins, Ph.D. (SAIS/Johns Hopkins University) – chairman 4. Martin Gilman, Ph.D. (Higher School of Economics) – fourth reader 5. Angela Stent, Ph.D. (Georgetown University) – outside reader iii Acknowledgements Though writing a dissertation can feel quite solitary, the process from conceptualization to completion is ultimately the work of many. Chief among the silent and not-so-silent partners has been my dissertation advisor, Professor Bruce Parrott. His comments were always thoughtful, incisive, and helpful, and his patience throughout was indispensable. I knew upon first speaking with Professor Parrott that I would fortunate to have him as my advisor. That initial instinct has proved right more times than I can remember. The comments and support from the rest of my committee have also been invaluable. Charles Gati always pushed me to consider the opposing argument. Andrew Kuchins was the first to propose that I look into BRICS. Martin Gilman provided an economist’s eye and kept me focused on the topic at hand. Angela Stent was instrumental in helping me draw out the macro themes of the research. Without the unique contribution of each committee member, this process would have been much the poorer. I am also indebted to the extraordinary librarians at the SAIS library. Though the whole staff helped, I would like to mention in particular the contributions of Jenny Kusmik, Josh MacDonald, Stephen Sears, and Susan High. Whether requesting help from Moscow, looking for a very particular article, or tracking down a book from the Eisenhower library, their assistance and camaraderie was vital. I also received much-needed assistance from outside the SAIS community. On the financial side, I am grateful to the Cosmos Scholars Foundation and the National Security iv Education Program Boren Fellowship for their support of my research. On the substantive and personal side, I am especially grateful to Ambassador James F. Collins and Professor Robert Legvold for their guidance and insights over the past seven years. I would not be where I am today had it not been for them. Finally, I owe more to my parents than words can express. Faced with a child deeply interested in Russia since the age of thirteen, my parents have patiently supported my steps and missteps as I found my way. My father has read every word I have written, whether on education under Tsar Nicholas I or contemporary Russian foreign policy. He and my mother have provided untold assistance and guidance. I will be forever grateful. v A Note on Transliteration and Sources I use the Library of Congress system of transliteration without diacritics, and except in instances of proper names with English equivalents, such as Alexander, or where there is an accepted English spelling of a name, such as Yeltsin. “Ы” is rendered as “y.” Both “Й” and “И” are written as “i.” “Я” is “ia.” The Kremlin and the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs often provide English translations of speeches and documents. If these were available, I cite the English version, since it is the translation of record. In places where the English translation may have missed some of the nuance in the Russian original or need clarification, I provide the Russian in brackets, and cite both versions. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract ....................................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................ iv A Note on Transliteration and Sources ........................................................................... vi List of Figures ........................................................................................................................... ix List of Abbreviations ................................................................................................................ x Introduction: Russia, the West, and the BRICS .............................................................. 1 1. Status Quo Revisionism: Post-Soviet Russia and the International System ... 9 Terms and Definitions ................................................................................................................... 11 Methodology: The Meaning of Political Rhetoric ................................................................. 15 A Review of Russian Foreign Policy Orientations ................................................................ 22 Russia and the West: A Failed Experiment? ........................................................................... 27 Russian Responses to the Post-Cold War Order ................................................................... 38 Anti-Westernism in Russia........................................................................................................... 46 How Policy Gets Made: Institutions and the Power of the President............................ 50 Seminal Changes in the International System Since 1991 ................................................ 54 Chapter Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 59 2. BRICS and Russian Foreign Policy: The State of the Field ................................... 61 Development of BRICS as an International Association .................................................... 63 BRICS and Russian Foreign Policy ............................................................................................. 73 Should Russia be a BRIC? .............................................................................................................. 77 Contribution of this Study ............................................................................................................ 80 3. From BRIC to BRICS: An Institutional History ......................................................... 82 BRICS Beginnings ............................................................................................................................. 83 BRICS Institutional Roots: RIC, IBSA, and the O5 ................................................................. 86 BRIC Begins to Organize ................................................................................................................ 91 A Brief Digression: What is Global Governance? .................................................................. 95 The Global Financial Crisis, the Rise to Prominence, and Nascent Institutionalization ......................................................................................................................... 97 BRICS by the Numbers ................................................................................................................. 103 BRICS and the World Economy .........................................................................................................
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