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(Or Shifting) Baseline Syndrome

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(Or Shifting) Baseline Syndrome Protected Areas in the Mediterranean Sharing expertise for effective conservation Malta, 11-14 September 2017 EVALUATING THE STATUS OF THREE ICONIC MEDITERRANEAN MARINE HABITATS: SEAGRASS MEADOWS, CAVES AND ROCKY REEFS. A SCHOLARLY ODYSSEY BETWEEN THE SLIDING BASELINE SYNDROME AND THE NEED FOR REFERENCE CONDITIONS Carlo Nike BIANCHI & Carla MORRI DiSTAV, University of Genoa, Italy ECOSYSTEM STATUS ASSESSMENT • Expert judgement • Biotic indices • Comparison with a reference condition ECOSYSTEM STATUS ASSESSMENT • Expert judgement • Biotic indices • Comparison with a reference condition THE SLIDING BASELINE SYNDROME (SBS) IN ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION THE SLIDING (OR SHIFTING) BASELINE SYNDROME – Significant changes to a system are measured against previous reference points (baselines), which themselves may represent significant changes from the original state of the system. – Loss of perception of change occurs when each generation redefines what is "natural". ―– Shift over time in the expectation of what a healthy ecosystem baseline looks like. A conceptual metaphor for a shifting baseline is the price of coffee. A cup of coffee may have only cost a $0.05 in the 1950s, but in the 1980s the cost shifted to $1.00 (ignoring inflation). The current (21st century) coffee prices are based on the 1980s model, rather than the 1950s model. The point of reference moved. the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD, 2008/56/EC) Reference conditions Pristine areas Historical data Modelling the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD, 2008/56/EC) No “pristine areas” left! “Unnatural oceans” (Jackson & Sala, 2001) “Research on intact marine ecosystems: a lost era” (Stachowitsch, 2003) Paul J. Crutzen (2010) The 'Anthropocene': a new geologic epoch dominated by human activities “Good environmental status” cannot be defined exclusively as “pristine environmental status”, but rather status when impacts of all uses were sustainable. [... meaning?] the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD, 2008/56/EC) Reference conditions Pristine areas Historical data Modelling the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD, 2008/56/EC) Reference conditions Pristine areas Historical data Modelling Protected areas the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD, 2008/56/EC) Reference conditions Protected areas Historical data Modelling Selected examples of the three approaches in three Mediterranean Sea iconic habitats: seagrass meadows, caves, and rocky reefs Protected areas 1 Historical data 1 Modelling 1 Zone: Gulf of Tigullio Habitat: rocky reefs Depth: 5-8 m Position of sampling sites and of the main human-induced pressures in the study area. Parravicini V., Micheli F., Montefalcone M., Morri C., Villa E., Castellano M., Povero P., Bianchi C.N., 2013. Conserving biodiversity in a human-dominated world: degradation of marine sessile communities within a protected area with conflicting human uses. Public Library of Science One, 8 (10): e75767. Protected areas 1 Historical data 1 Modelling 1 Zone: Gulf of Tigullio Habitat: rocky reefs Depth: 5-8 m red = MPA sites Parravicini V., Micheli F., Montefalcone M., Morri C., Villa E., Castellano M., Povero P., Bianchi C.N., 2013. Conserving biodiversity in a human-dominated world: degradation of marine sessile communities within a protected area with conflicting human uses. Public Library of Science One, 8 (10): e75767. Protected areas 2 Historical data 1 Modelling 1 Zone: NW Mediterranean Habitat: coralligenous reefs Depth: 30-35 m Location of the study site at Mesco Reef (MR) for the temporal dataset and the 15 sites for the spatial dataset: Portofino (PO), Montecristo Island (MO), Pianosa Island (PI), Tavolara Island (TA), Capo Carbonara (CC), Vada Shoals (VA), Elba Island (EL), Argentario (AR), Giglio Island (GI), Costa Paradiso (CP), Meloria Shoals (ME), Livorno (LI), Piombino (PB), Civitavecchia (CI) and Santa Marinella (SM). Montefalcone M., Morri C., Bianchi C.N., Bavestrello G., Piazzi L., 2017. The two facets of species sensitivity: stress and disturbance on coralligenous assemblages in space and time. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 117: 229-238. Protected areas 2 Historical data 1 Modelling 1 Zone: NW Mediterranean Habitat: coralligenous reefs Depth: 30-35 m Mean quality (± s.e.) of the coralligenous assemblages expressed as ecological quality ratio of the integrated sensitivity level of coralligenous assemblages (ISLA) index in three different conditions: P = protected LU = little urbanised HU = highly urbanised Good quality (0.6 ≤ ISLA < 0.8) is shown in light grey, moderate quality (0.4 ≤ ISLA < 0.6) in dark grey. The dotted line represents the threshold value (ISLA = 0.6) for changing from good quality to moderate quality. Results of one-way PERMANOVA analyses are reported: * = p < 0.05. Montefalcone M., Morri C., Bianchi C.N., Bavestrello G., Piazzi L., 2017. The two facets of species sensitivity: stress and disturbance on coralligenous assemblages in space and time. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 117: 229-238. Protected areas 3 Historical data 1 Modelling 1 Zone: Liguria Habitat: seagrass meadows Depth: ~ 10 m MO: Mortola; OS: Ospedaletti; GA: Gallinara; BE: Bergeggi; CA: Cogoleto - Arenzano; FO: Genoa - Foce, ST: Sturla; QA: Quarto; QI: Quinto; NE: Nervi; PO: Portofino; PS: Prelo - San Michele di Pagana; MA: Manara; FR: Framura; MM: Monterosso al Mare. Montefalcone M., Albertelli G., Morri C., Parravicini V., Bianchi C.N., 2009. Legal protection is not enough: Posidonia oceanica meadows in marine protected areas are not healthier than those in unprotected areas of the northwest Mediterranean Sea. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 58: 515-519. Protected areas 3 Historical data 1 Modelling 1 Zone: Liguria Habitat: seagrass meadows Depth: ~ 10 m Mean values (± se) of the Conservation Index (CI) in 15 Posidonia oceanica meadows: Mortola (MO), Ospedaletti (OS), Gallinara (GA), Bergeggi (BE), Cogoleto - Arenzano (CA), Genoa - Foce (FO), Sturla (ST), Quarto (QA), Quinto (QI), Nervi (NE), Portofino (PO), Prelo - San Michele di Pagana (PS), Manara (MA), Framura (FR), Monterosso al Mare (MM) Montefalcone M., Albertelli G., Morri C., Parravicini V., Bianchi C.N., 2009. Legal protection is not enough: Posidonia oceanica meadows in marine protected areas are not healthier than those in unprotected areas of the northwest Mediterranean Sea. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 58: 515-519. Protected areas 4 Historical data 1 Modelling 1 Marine Protected Areas • too young • too small • not sufficiently enforced (“paper parks”) • designed to manage fisheries, not ecosystems Protected areas 3 Historical data 1 Modelling 1 Zone: SE Aegean Sea Habitat: various Depth: 1 to 10 m The Island of Kos with study sites: B, Agios Fokas; G, Kako Skali; K, Kardamena; N, Agios Nikolaos; P, Psalidi; S, Marmari; T, Piso Thermi; Y, Cape Louros. The anchor symbol indicates harbour and marinas, the drumstick coastal wastewater treatment plants. Inset: the Aegean Sea between Greece (GR) and Turkey (TR), with the Island of Kos framed. Bianchi C.N., Corsini-Foka M., Morri C., Zenetos A, 2014. Thirty years after: dramatic change in the coastal marine ecosystems of Kos Island (Greece), 1981-2013. Mediterranean Marine Science, 15 (3): 482-497. Protected areas 3 Historical data 1 Modelling 1 CHANGE IN STRESS REGIME Zone: SE Aegean Sea Habitat: various Depth: 1 to 10 m Sea water temperature Change in sea surface temperature (SST) in the coastal waters of Kos. A - Trend of yearly means from 1975 to 2012. B - Monthly means for 1981 and 2013. Bianchi C.N., Corsini-Foka M., Morri C., Zenetos A, 2014. Thirty years after: dramatic change in the coastal marine ecosystems of Kos Island (Greece), 1981-2013. Mediterranean Marine Science, 15 (3): 482-497. Protected areas 3 Historical data 1 Modelling 1 CHANGE IN STRESS REGIME Zone: SE Aegean Sea Habitat: various Depth: 1 to 10 m Human pressures Change in human pressure intensity at Kos. A - Resident population. B - Receptive capacity for tourists (the number of rooms rent by privates is probably underestimated). C - Number of overnights (in hotels). D - Passenger arrivals by flight and by ship. E - Arrivals of dry cargo ships and tankers to Kos port. F - Total gross tonnage of fishing vessels. Bianchi C.N., Corsini-Foka M., Morri C., Zenetos A, 2014. Thirty years after: dramatic change in the coastal marine ecosystems of Kos Island (Greece), 1981-2013. Mediterranean Marine Science, 15 (3): 482-497. Protected areas 3 Historical data 1 Modelling 1 CHANGE IN STRESS REGIME Zone: SE Aegean Sea Habitat: various Depth: 1 to 10 m Biological invasions Number of alien marine species per decade (bars) and overall trend for the last century (line) in the Dodecanese area (to which Kos belongs). Bianchi C.N., Corsini-Foka M., Morri C., Zenetos A, 2014. Thirty years after: dramatic change in the coastal marine ecosystems of Kos Island (Greece), 1981-2013. Mediterranean Marine Science, 15 (3): 482-497. Protected areas 3 Historical data 1 Modelling 1 CHANGE IN BIOLOGICAL COMMUNITIES Zone: SE Aegean Sea Habitat: various Depth: 1 to 10 m Correspondence Analysis ordination model on the plane formed by the first two axes extracted. 1st axis (horizontal) explains 14.2 % of the total variance, 2nd axis (vertical) 12.1 %. Site-points are BIOTIC represented by capital letters, followed by the relevant year of survey. Sites are HOMOGENISATION grouped by year of survey, and time trajectories of individual sites are also indicated. Bianchi C.N., Corsini-Foka M., Morri C., Zenetos A, 2014. Thirty years
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