HUASCARAN BIOSHPERE RESERVE, ANCASH : EVALUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

Prepared by Jorge Recharte, Ph.D. The Mountain Institute

1. Purpose of the Assessment The purpose of this study is to contribute a base-line of the natural and human dimensions of change in Huascaran Biosphere Reserve (HBR) in the Ancash Region, Peru. It presents local and global drivers of change in order to explore ideas for research in this biosphere reserve. The dimensions of change that have been selected are those that are identified as priority in the GLOCHAMOST initiative but also specifically relevant to this region of the , i.e.:

• Impacts of global change on cryosphere and on grassland and wet land ecosystems in the HBR region.

• Impacts on the water regulation services currently provided by the core area of the HBR to upland and lowland users.

• Economic, social and institutional transformations taking place at the regional level, mostly as a result of expansion of extractive industries and the rapid social and economic changes it brings. The scope of assessment will be the watershed, including references to the coastal area which is a dynamic pole of economic growth affecting the uplands.

The assessment considers the perspectives of both local communities and researchers concerning the trends of change. For the local perspective we have relied on a survey of 254 farmers (TMI 2010), while the perspective of scientists and practitioners were elaborated during the conference “Adapting to a World Without Glaciers “ (The Mountain Institute 2009). Thus research priorities recommended will reflect not only academic but societal interests.

2. Huascaran Biosphere Reserve: and over view of main drivers of change

Huascaran Biosphere Reserve comprises the upper and middle watersheds of two major river systems: Santa River flowing to the west into the Pacific Ocean, and Marañon River flowing east to the Amazon. The southern section of HBR is also the head water of Pativilca and Fortaleza rivers, both flowing to the coast. In both eastern escarpment and in the western Huaylas valley there is a strong vertical variation in climates as one moves from the highlands to the lowlands. For instance in the Santa River watershed precipitation varies from 100 mm at low elevations to 1,500 mm at the highest elevations (5,000 – 6,000 masl) (SEI 2009). There is also a latitudinal precipitation gradient along the Cordillera, with greater precipitation to the south and decreasing precipitation to the north of the range. Seasonally, there is a wet summer and a marked dry winter season.

The mountain landscapes comprised by Huascaran Biosphere are themselves the result of both geological and anthropogenic change. This place is a landscape of great beauty protected by Huascaran National Park (HNP). The park was created in 1975 (DS 0622- 75-AG). All subsequent institutional agreements established by the Peruvian government (UNESCO Biosphere Reserve in 1977 and World Heritage Site in 1985) also aim to protect this specific landscape: a mosaic of open range lands, dominated by nearly120 kilometers of snow covered peaks with associated tropical alpine environments, lakes, and remnants Polylepis spp native forests. HNP protects nine of the 18 species of this tree. The lower limit of the core area of HNP is located at an approximate average altitude of 3,800 masl, which at the time of creation of HNP was roughly the altitude above the limit of agriculture. The core area of the reserve extended up to the snow covered peaks, which includes Huascaran peak, Peru’s highest mountain (6769m). This peak is also an icon of national identity.

The total area of the HBR is 1,155,800 hectares (Sevillano 2010), quite a large and complex territory. The area of Rio Santa watershed is 11,600 km2) the largest watershed in the Pacific coat of Peru. The Huascaran Biosphere Reserve (HBR) core area is Huascaran National Park (340,000 hectares) which was set to protect the upper ecosystems of , the largest group of tropical glaciers in the world. At the time of creation, Huascaran National Park included approximately 300 lakes, 663 glaciers and 41 main sub-watersheds (Quebradas) draining West to the Rio Santa and the Pacific Ocean andd coast, and East to the Marañon and Amazonas watersehd (20 of these located in the west and 21 in the east). Traditional access and consuetudinary rights of rural communities to pasturelands in the Park as well the organization of mountain tourism and the management of the Park is based on this quebrada territorial units

The number of glaciers and glacial lakes have changed dramatically as the glaciers retreat, break and new glacial lakes are formed. The HBR buffer zone is characterized by agricultural landscapes (170,020 hectares) dedicated to traditional crops and livestock of both Andean and European origin. This is an agriocultural landscape inhabited by people of Quechua culture. Virtually all rural people is also fluent in Spanish. These original settlers have occupied the hills above the Huaylas valley for thousands of years since early agriculture developed in the region. The HBR transition zone (645, 780 hectares) extends down to the warm valleys (mostly between approximately 2,800 and 3,200 masl) and then extends upwards to the divortium acquarum of the Negra Range (to the west of Cordillera Blanca) and to the divortium aquarium of the Oriental Range (to the East of the Blanca Range). This transition zone includes some of Peru’s largest mines (e.g. Antamina) and the second most productive gold mine of the country (Pierina) and several smaller mines, including some that have legal rights to extract minerals (although not to process it inside the Park).

Pre-historic origin of present day landscape The processes of landscape change originated with human groups of hunters and gatherer that roamed the region for deer and guanaco (Lama guanicoe) from 12,500 BC, during a cold and wet climate period of glacial advance in the Andes (E.P. Lanning 1967; T. Lynch 1971). Indirect archeological evidence (stone tools to process wood) indicates wooded valleys and larger Polylepis spp, Buddleia, Gynoxis stands. Hunters migrated seasonally between the warmer valley and the colder puna. By 7,500 BC hunters had moved up as the glaciers retreated, seasonally occupying caves at ~4,500 masl (e.g. Quishqui Puncu cave in Huaylas inside the HBR or Lauricocha cave near the southern border of HBR). Burning the puna vegetation to manage wild herds of guanaco and subsequent domestication was initiated in this period (E.P. Lanning 1967).

The co-evolution of the glaciers, alpine and forest landscapes of the HBR is subject to much debate, as summarized by Sevillano (2010). On the one hand it is postulated (Fjeldsa, J. and M. Kessler (1991)) that Polylepis spp forests dominated the alpine areas of the Andes in general and were the climax vegetation up to or near the snow line limit. Thus the remaining forests in Huascaran National Park would be relicts (it is estimated that extant Polylepis spp forests are about 2% of their original extension at the scale of Peru). An alternative position proposes that the current fragmentation of forests responds to a natural island-like evolution associated with glacial expansion and recession across large geological times (e.g. Van der Hammen 1986 cited in Sevillano 2010). A third position is that the current distribution of forests is the outcome of both a natural island like distribution associated with adaptation to micro-climates as well as the result of anthropogenic pressures (e.g. Young y Leon, 1995 cited in Sevillano 2010).

The Cordillera Blanca is thus a cultural landscape that co-evolved with humans over the last 12,500 years. Within the territory of the HBR there are several monumental remains that provide archeological evidence not only of the rural economy of farmers (e.g. terraces) but also of their ceremonial nature and thus of society’s relationship to the mountains. Example of places which were sacred include for example Huaricoto or La Galgada in the main valley of the western escarpment, or Chavín de Huántar in the eastern flank (Ibarra Asencios 2003). A complex network of mountain roads crossing the Cordillera developed over time, facilitating the flow of people, materials and ideas within the valley, across the mountains and with other . Some of the routes associated with pre-hispanic ceremonial centers were in fact part of large pilgrimage routes. Some of these ancient pilgrimage routes crossing the Cordillera are now both tourist trekking routes and are in use by mountain communities (e.g. Uquian-Ututo- Shongo (Olleros-Chavín); -Huaripampa, Llanganuco-Morococha, Ulta- Potaca, Honda-Juitush (Plan Maestro PNH 2002). These routes were also part of larger pilgrimage routes that connected major ceremonial centers at hundreds of kilometers away, like for example the ceremonial centers of Huánuco Pampa, beyond the southern end of the HBR, with Huanacaure in Cuzco (Astuhuaman 2008).

As noted, landscapes in the HBR region have changed over time as a result of both major climatic shifts and human land use influence, however the pace of changes in the present day landscapes is faster and broader than before.

Present day landscape The following example of land cover types at Quebrada [sub-watershed] Quillcayhuanca (J. Chang 2002) illustrates the typical landscape that is protected by the core area: a combination of open range grasslands (42%) with dominant species such as Festuca dolichopylla, Stipa ichu and Calamagrostis spp.; snow covered peaks (32%); native forest, predominantly “queñual” (Polylepis spp.) (15%); bushes, including associated bunch grasses and herbs (6%); and wetland ecosystems of the alpine area (2%). It should be noted the importance of Polylepis spp forests from a conservation stand point since the Huascaran National Park (HNP harbors probably some of the largest forest fragments remaining in Peru and in the Andes. Out of a total of 28 Polylepis spp there are 14 in Peru, nine of them in HNP, with 3 of the 14 species endemic to this country (Sevillano 2010).

Cover Type Area (hectares) % Rocks 1.7 0.02 Arid 3.2 0.03 Wetland (bofedal) 221.2 2.39 Bushes 568.7 6.14 Forest 1 452.9 15.69 Grassland 3 963.5 42.81 Snow 3 047.5 32.92 Total 9 258.7 100.00 Source: J. Chang 2002

Although HNP has no systematic monitoring system in place to track the status of the wildlife and flora the Park is mandated to protect, there are regular reports by visitors of “condor” (Vultur gryphus), “puma” (Felis concolor), “vicuña” (Vicugna vicugna), white- tailed deers (Odocoileus virginianus), and andean deer or “taruca” (Hippocamelus antisensis). The core area also has some of the largest stands of “Puya de Raimondi” (Puya raimondii) which is also a symbol of national identity and pride for Peruvians, as also noted is the case with Huascarán peak. Another iconic glacier, Nevado Pastoruri, which was visited by thousands of Peruvians who went to the mountain on vacation “to touch snow” has lost so much of its ice (between 1995 and 2008 minus 39.87% of its area) that it had to be closed by HNP authorities (Zapata M. 2009) This had a negative effect on the flow of tourists to the region and thus the economy. Apart from the establishment of a GLORIA site in HNP in 2007, there is limited scientific baseline established by HNP to track changes associated with increased global temperatures and changes in the climate. Eventual alarms of possible GLOF events announced in recent years have also had dramatic negative impacts on the flow of national visitors.

Glacier retreat is the most visible change affecting the Cordillera Blanca, the Eastern range of the Huaylas valley and core of the HBR. This range is one of 19 glacier ranges that existed in Peru in 1970 (2,041 km2 total glacier area). They are all rapidly receding (Zapata M. 2009). In the specific case of the Cordillera Blanca range the glacier area has reduced from 723.37 Km2 to 527.6 Km2 in the 1970-2003 period (Ibid.) In the 1970- 2003 period the highest Huascaran- massif has lost 22.4 % of its glacier area at an average rate of minus 0.68 % per year (Racoviteanu, A. et.al. 2008), and a higher rate in more recent years (e.g. -2.5% between 2003 – 2005). Overall the Cordillera Blanca has lost 22.4 % glacier area in the 3 decades between 1970-2003 (Ibid.) The front of glaciers has retreated between at an average rate that fluctuates between minus 9.41 m/year up to minus 18.75 m/year depending on conditions of each specific glacier (Zapata M. 2009).

The Santa watershed (12,200 km2) which originates in the HBR is among the rivers with highest flows that descend into the deserts of the Peruvian coats. The river runs for over 300 kms (approximately 120 kms of these along the HBR), descending into the coast. Approximately 1,697,203 people depend on the water provided by this river. It provides water to two of the major irrigation projects developed in the Peruvian coast (CHINECAS and CHAVIMOCHIC) in Ancash and La Libertad Regions.

Since the contribution of water from glacier melt in Cordillera Blanca is relatively high, ranging between 10% to 45% depending on the extent of glaciers in the different watersheds that feed Santa River (Mark et al, 2005), the loss of glaciers poses a major threat to the wellbeing of highland and lowland populations in the coast. In the period 1970-2003, the number of glaciers in the Santa watershed has increased from 516 to 549 while their total area has diminished (Zapata M. 2009). Smaller glaciers will recede even faster. Glacier loss is thus contributing to runoff water creating the sense that there is plenty of water in the Santa River. For example in the sub-watershed of Querococha, 58% of water during the dry season comes from non renewable losses of the Yanamarey glacier (Mark, B. G et. al. 2010). This glacier is estimated by these authors to last for ten more years.

In spite of its large annual flow, relative to other rivers of the Peruvian coast (4,443 million cubic meters), during the last 30 years the average flow during the dry season (June-October) has been just below the critical minimum (47 m3/seg) required to fully supply demand. Therefore the current

Another major threat that is configuring as a result of glacier retreat is the formation of glacier lakes that increase the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF). The number of these lakes has grown from 223 to 452 between 1953 and 2009). GLOF events have had a sad record of destruction and number of people killed in the HBR area: in 1941 city (5,000 people killed), 1945 Chavín town (500), 1950 Cañón del Pato (200), 1962 Ranrahirca valley (4,000), 1970 Yungay city (15,000 people killed).

In summary, present day landscapes are changing rapidly as a result of climate change, thus reinforcing the notion that near future changes in landscape will be in all likelihood be dramatic and have consequences for livelihoods in the HBR and beyond.

Local perspectives on climate change in HBR rural areas. An opinion survey of 254 people (52% women, 48% male) conducted by TMI (2010) in 5 peasant communities, located in the headwaters of Santa and Pativilca rivers, is the source of information on local perceptions of climate change and the state of natural resources (Catac, Aquia, Canrey Chico and Huasta). Thus the information reflects the perceptions of farmers and herders who are the primary users of land resources in the HBR. These five communities were selected because of their location in the puna grassland ecological zone (Aquia and Huasta also hold the largest stands of remnant native Polylepis spp forests)

An overwhelming majority of people interviewed indicate that they have noticed changes in climate (91.1%) while 7.1% indicate that there are no changes. The most significant changes listed by respondents are in decreasing order increase in temperature (62.2% of respondents), more extreme rain/flood event (37%), droughts (21,3%), more intense cold/freezing (12.2%), the retreat of glaciers (10.2%), none (7.9%), variability in rain’s season, more abrupt season changes (3.9%), unpredictable changes (1.6%), more plant disease (1.2%). The cause of these changes is due, in descending order, to contamination (59.8%), unknown reasons (21.4%), global warming (14.1%), loss of the ozone layer (4.3%), nature’s cycles (3.4%), God’s will (2.1%) and others. Respondents consider that the consequences of climate change will be first more health problems in humans and animals (33.9%), more crop disease (28.7%), droughts (23.6%), loss of glaciers and then lack of water (18.1%), unknown consequences (13.8%), floods (11.4%) and avalanches (10.2%), loss of animal and plant species (5.9%) and land infertility (4.3%), natural disasters (0.8%) and only one person responded that it would have no consequences (0.4%). The majority of people (57.1%) indicated they did not know how to respond to these changes in order to reduce the impacts. The rest of respondents indicated as possible responses to climate change: reforestation with native forests (24%) and grassland restoration (7.9%), conservation of natural resources (3.9%) and education (3.9%) and better management of the puna, reforestation (2%) and construction of water reservoirs (1.6%), improved irrigation (1.6%), improved technical capacities (1.6%) and several other technical solutions. The survey indicated that for most people it is important to respond to the impacts of climate change (50.8%), while very important to 36.6%, relative important to 7.1%, of little importance to 4.7% and not important at all to 0.8% of people.

In summary, HBR land users are clearly aware of significant impacts originated in the increased variability and change in climate. They note mostly the impacts that these changes have in their farming systems and are tracking impacts in their well being and that of their animals and crops. There is also a degree of awareness of the linkage between proper management of natural resources and be better prepared to withstand changes. Consideration of local perspectives should inform the design of research and education agendas in HBR.

Research and Educational activities in the HBR region. Although one of the main functions of Huascaran Biosphere Reserve should be to develop a research and education platform to explore conservation and sustainable development in mountain ecosystems, activities at a significant scale were not articulated in the past. Since 2009 there is a new interest and leadership of HNP authorities to implement the biosphere reserve concept. A brief review of research conducted in the region will illustrate research gaps.

The earliest geographic and scientific studies of the region are due to the the Italian citizen Antonio Raimondi who visited the region 150 years ago and then published the first scientific documents, like “El departamento de Ancash y sus riquezas minerales” (1873) [Ancash Department and its mineral wealth] and numerous observations of the flora and fauna. Raimondi the scientist is today part of the social imaginary of people of the region. Like Raimondi, other classical studies of the geology, botany and geography of the region were conducted in the first decades of the 20th century (G. Steinmann 1930; Weberbauer, A. 1911). The first comprehensive mapping of the Cordillera Blanca was done by the 1933, 1936, and 1939 German-Austrian Alpine Club climbing- cartographic expeditions of Hans Kinzl y Erwin Schneider (Kinzl, H. and E. Schneider 1950).

After this early descriptive studies of the region, there has been a limited number of dissertations conducted in he Cordillera Blanca region, however not in any way connected to a research program. The first systematic botanical study of Huascaran National Park was completed David Smith’s doctoral dissertation (1988).

One field of scientific research and action that has been developed in a continued manner in Cordillera Blanca is the study of glaciers and glacial lakes. This line of research originated after a string of glacial lake outburst (GLOF) destroyed life and properties: the glacial lake outburst of in 1941 killed about 6,000 people in the city of Huaraz; a subsequent land slide due to a GLOF in 1945 killed several hundred people and covered the ancient ruins of Chavin; and in 1950 another GLOF damaged Cañon de Pato hydroelectric power plant and infrastructures that were under development back then (Carey 2010). As a result an applied glaciology research group was established by the Peruvian government within a government entity called “Ancash Development Corporation” in the 1940s and it has operated— with partial interruptions only during part of the Fujimori government—ever since (Ibid.) This group, based in the HBR, developed some applied pioneering methods to classify the risk of GLOFs in the region and over time has promoted on going international partnerships that have resulted in continued and comprehensive assessments of major glaciers of this Cordillera (e.g. Ames et. al. 1989; Ames and Francou 1995: 62-63; Hastenrath and Ames 1995a; Kaser et al. 1990; Kaser 1995; Kaser et al. 1996).

Currently (2009) the Peruvian unit of glaciology monitors eight sites in Cordillera Blanca (, , Broggi, Shallap, , Yanamarey, Gajap and Pastoruri).

In the last few years there has been a revival of interest in Cordillera Blanca among graduate students. Some of this interest seems to be related to the global prominence of some of the problems and drivers of change mapped here: over grazing of pastures (e.g. Fariss, B. L. 2007), tourism impacts, mining development in the region (Gil 2008) and conservation management challenges (e.g. Mervielle N. 2010, Young, K. R. and J. K. Lipton 2006).

Also, as noted above, the evidence of glacier retreat as proof of the effects of global warming, has increased research interest in this HBR, therefore creating an opportunity to promote more systematic research (Reynolds-Geo-Sciences 2003). A more recent example is the conference “Adapting to a World Without Glaciers” held in Huaraz July 7-15 and co-organized and by The Mountain Institute, the Ministry of Environment and the National Council for Science and Technology CONCYTEC (TMI 2009). The purpose of the Conference was to promote a research program in response to the threats on mountain ecosystems and human livelihoods posed by global climate change and particularly the retreat of glaciers. More specifically, the strategy was to promote dialogue between scientists and decision makers “on (a) the importance of water resources management for long-range planning and climate change adaptation, sharing the experiences of multiple mountain ranges, (b) how changes could affect those aspects of life in the mountains that depend on glaciers for sustenance, and (c) the identification of priority research, collaboration, and pilot project initiatives. One of the outcomes was the agreement to implement a pilot program in Huascaran Biosphere Reserve. These three objectives that informed the design of the Conference were previously validated in two meetings with 37 Peruvian scientists and policy makers (21/04/2009). The open conference section in had 250 participants, while the workshop in Huaraz held July 8th to 13th of July, was dedicated to identifying research themes and actions with 80 participants. The results of these discussions are presented in abridge form here (Table 1 and 2).

3. Characterization of stress: drivers and indicators of change

Grazing. Repeat photography studies comparing the distribution of the quenual or Polylepis forests and grassland landscapes in Huascaran National Park in the period 1936-1998 (Byers A. 2000) and 1967-2000 (Tohan A. 2000) indicate the landscape unchanged, particularly Polylepis spp forest extension (which even increased). This means in the 1930s, decades before the HNP was established, the Polylepis spp, quenual, forests had already been cornered to areas where cattle, fire or people could not reach without great difficulty and then Park delimitation helped protect these forests. On the other hand, during this same period there was a vast expansion of exotic tree species like eucalyptus and pine in the valleys outside HNP. This may have also reduced pressure to cut firewood from native forests inside the Park (Byers A. 2000).

A first important source of tension on HNP landscapes (Plan Maestro HNP 2002) is the excessive pressure of livestock and the burning of pastures for grazing of animals. Livestock production generally is based on a household herd that includes mostly cattle and sheep. Alpaca and llama were re-introduced to the Park in the 1990s, yet they can be found only in a few communities. All communities also have horses, donkeys and mules that are used both to transport agricultural production inside the community and also for use as pack animals in the adventure tourism industry.

The assessment of pasture conditions available in HNP (Salvador Poma 2002 quoted in Conde 2009; Oscanoa 2001) are based on palatability to livestock. As per this type of measurement, 68% percent of grass-type species inside the Park are in the undesirable category from the point of view of palatability to livestock, an indication of how deeply affected are the puna grasslands by over grazing (Byers 2010). Burning (Conde S. 2009) is a cultural practice that has the purpose of obtaining green and soft grasses for the herds. Burning is prominent around the southern solstice (June 21st - 24th). These burning practices are prohibited by norms of the Park, yet they were still quite prominent until 2005 (e.g. that year 2,896 hectares inside the HNP were burned).

As a result of negative synergy between over-grazing and burning, there is a tendency to lower productivity of herds, growing exposure of soils to weather and erosion, soil compaction, growth of exotic invasive species that can prosper under this poorer soil conditions, and migration/reduction of wildlife population and birds that depend on grasslands for habitat and to obtain their food (Byers 2010).

Tourism. A second major source of tension on ecosystems affecting wildlife is the combined pressure of roads and the growth of tourism. There are four roads crossing the areas classified in the 1990 Park management Plan (Pachacoto-Huallanca, Cátac- Chavín, Carhuaz- y Yungay-Yanama). Some of these have been paved and are now major transportation West-East roads across the Cordillera Blanca range. There is growing pressure to build new roads.

Before the creation of HNP, Huaylas valley was a traditional area of national and international travel. The improvement of roads and the growth in tourism were triggered after a massive earthquake in 1970 killed over 70,000 people and destroyed the city of Huaraz, Llanganuco and other villages in the entire area of HBR. As a result of international brigades and emergency help to the region, tourism grew quickly. By 1987, in spite of the extended presence of armed Shining Path guerrilas in the highlands of Peru, there were already over 62,000 national visitors and 6,000 international visitors entering HNP as measured in the two main access points (Llanganuco and Carpa) were the Park controlled entrances. By the year 2001 the number of visitors, eight years after the violence in the region had stopped, was near 120,000 national visitors and 14,000 foreign tourists. Tourism increased some afte 2001, but has stagnated in recent years, among other things due to the loss of Pastoruri glacier.

Mining. Mining development in the Huascaran Biosphere Reserve (HBR) is a third social, economic, and political driver of change, and therefore with important indirect impacts on the conditions of landscapes both inside and in the buffer and transition zones of the HBR. Within the context of a comprehensive economic liberal policy reform during three successive governments of Alberto Fujimori President (1990-2000), Peru fostered foreign mining investment. As a result mining production increased nationally 1,000% between 1990 and 2008 mostly as a result of large scale mining projects. Legislation mandates that 50% of the income tax paid by mining companies is returned to the regions where mining took place. This compensation mechanisms for the extraction of non-renewable resources is called canon minero. The territory of the HBR (Ancash region) illustrates the extent to which mining is a driver of change. Antamina mine, Peru’s biggest mining project was established (built in 1997-2000) 30 kilometers East of HNP, within the boundaries of the HBR. This project was designed to processes 700,000 metric tons of rocks per day in order to produce 600 million pounds of copper concentrate and 360 million pounds of zinc per year which is transported through a pipeline to the coast. Although this is a large scale operation and it is associated with 302 kilometers of pipelines, and several new power lines and roads that cross the entire territory of the HBR, the direct physical impacts are restricted to the mine site (consisting of a pit that will be 2 kilometers in width and 750 meters in depth; an artificial dam, the largest in Peru for the mineral tailings; and infrastructure developments on approximately 2,000 hectares of grasslands). However, the most important impacts are indirect as a result of the investment of public canon tax money in the region which increased by 3,046 % (three thousand and forty six percent) between the year 2004 and 2007 as a result of mining canon taxes returned by the central government back to the Ancash regional government. Although the Ancash Region was able to spend roughly only 25% of this income (districts in which the rate of increase has even larger than this figure like San Marcos where Antamina mine is located have been able to spend about 5% of their new income).

Most of these resources have been invested in infrastructure development (roads, pavement of streets, and public services) in the small towns and cities of the HBR. Urban population has gone up from 57% in 1993 to 62% in 2007. Not only the main and traditional towns of Spanish origin are expanding (e.g. Huaraz 120,000 people or 23,500 people), but also the approximately 1,500 small rural villages have a tendency to add urban areas in their communities (usually dispersed in the landscape) In order to concentrate population to access education and public services.

The HNP established in 1998 a dialogue group called Grupo de Trabajo Huascaran (GTH) which includes representatives from industry and conservation to debate these development and conservation issues and seek potential solutions.

The research challenges faced by HBR are representative of those of Peru in general. It is the sense of urgency around the issue of climate change, as exemplified by the visible retreat of glaciers in Cordillera Blanca, that opens a window of opportunity to develop a comprehensive research program in HBR. Table 1 provides a summary of the main capacities and gaps as perceived by participants in the “Adapting to a World Without Glaciers: realities, challenges and actions” Workshop (The Mountain Institute 2009).

Table 1 Current Capacities Gaps

Indigenous populations and farmers have Lack of information and research on long history and tradition of adapting to climate change and water changes in climate and water supply Institutional weaknesses in Peru in NGOs are working with local populations to general, especially in agricultural sector compile and systematize traditional knowledge on climate change and promote Gap between the wider society and proven best practices indigenous and native-farming communities. Initiatives are being developed to strengthen key institutions at different Peasant-indigenous and Amazonian levels of national and local government, communities losing control of their natural including the creation of the Ministry of the resources Environment. Gap between the scientific community, The public in general has greater decision-makers, and wider society awareness of climate change and its threat to water resources, generating interest and Lack of financing for climate change calls for immediate action. strategies, policies, and actions

Growing interest among donors, the Government of Peru, local and foreign researchers in climate change impacts in the Andes will help to generate knowledge and resources for Peru.

Globally and regionally there is baseline data and technology available to assist in the analysis of climate change impacts on water, ecosystems, and changes in soil usage. Source: TMI 2009.

Although the current capacities section in Table 1 indicates that there is the technology available to develop baseline data, in fact the workshop discussed the urgent need to develop basic research and data infrastructure, which is currently non existent (e.g. more and better located meteorological stations). Also the gaps relate to the lack of dialogue between land users, who are responding already to climate change, and decision makers, and between these stakeholders and science research. The gaps and needs that require response are in fact many. In more detailed these include lack of specialized university level training on glaciology, hydrology and lack of curriculum with orientation of biology and social sciences to ecology and human-nature interactions. The lack of mechanisms to finance research results in the fact that there are only a few Peruvian scientists actively participating in international research groups working on climate change. Pruvian scientists, with few exceptions, are not prepared to compete for international funds. It was estimated that laboratory equipments and research and monitoring infrastructure has a 30 to 50 years delay with respect to up-to-date technology. Research outcomes are not properly disseminated within the university system and much less to decision makers or to citizens in general. On going national research is not articulated and cooperation among national scientists is weak (Tarazona J. 2009)

Table 2. Disaggregated tensions and causes on biodiversity, glaciers, water, land use and society.

Sector Tensions Causes Indicator Research priorities (i) Identify most vulnerable communities, ecosystems & bilogical zones change in (ii) Vertical Communities, composition, (*) Global climate interactions of genes, ecosystems, and distribution; change nutrients. biological zones changes in (*) Over grazing (iii) Assess local vulnerable to climate environmental knowledge of services ecological processes and relevance to design of management systems in the HBR (i) Explore how Traditional (*) National individuals value Erosion level of agriculture of Andean economic policies: biodiversity and genetic agro- grain and tubers is traditional farming ecosystems from a biodiversity declining (livestock not profitable. cultural and economic

prodution more (*) Lack of perspective, (ii) Study Value placed by profitable), climatic agricultural interactions and farmers on risk on crops is extension feedback between traditional crops increasing services human and Ecosystem and Biodiversity Biodiversity and Ecosystem biophysical systems (i) Applied Number of critical conservation conservation research and action Gaps in technical objects to be (detailed assessment Weak management capacities, in monitored and of the institutional systems in place for monitoring and managed that mechanisms and effective lack of strategies have been capacities that HNP conservation of HBR to articulate to the prioritized through and HBR core area scientific research stakeholders have to community. (biodiversity and develop monitoring agro-diversity) and management actions) Sector Tensions Causes Indicator Research priorities Number of Lack of public educational and awareness of the •dissemination (i) Research on Mounting human relationships activities that use communication pressure on native between human science systems in the ecosystems and impacts (climate conducted locally. watershed; baseline biodiversity in all change and others) studies of public zones of the HBR on biodiversity and perceptions and (including the core ecosystems and Level of technical knolwedge of climate zone) these and capacities in change, biodiversity, environmental communicating ecosystem services services science to the general public Lack of adequate Number of Lowland and information documents that (i) Research on highland competition among policy illustrate (for communication for water services at makers and low educational systems in the the scale of the public awareness purposes) watershed; baseline watershed increases of linkages highland-lowland studies of public threats on mountain connecting linkages in the perceptions and ecosystems (e.g. highlands and western valley knowledge of climate plans to build watrer lowlands in (Santa) and change, biodiversity, infrastructures) systems of mutual eastern ecosystem services inter dependence. (Marañon) valley Land use at multiple (i) Explore information levels shows signs of needs of community, unsustainability: e.g. Number of municipal and over grazing at Lack of environmental regional level household and information on policies and decision makers. community levels; mountain norms tailored to mining operations ecosystem biodiversity and (ii) Develop located in fragile services and ecosystem mechanisms to link ecosystems and management services. scientific research to locations; roads cut policy through fragile recommendations ecosystems (i) Evaluate water availability: the contribution of different water Glacier recession in sources like Cordillera Blanca (~ - Information precipitation, glaciers, Human induced 25% of area in the systems in place snow, underground climate change is last 30 years) is to assess long water, and their increasing fragmenting glaciers, term water spatial and temporal temperatures and increasing the availability from variability.(ii) Study changes (not well number of glacial different soruces and modeling of documented) in lakes, altering water and their spatial physical factors other climatic availability in the ans temporal associated with the parameters basins to the west variability hydrologic balance in

Glaciers, Water and Risk Risk and Glaciers, Water and east. watersheds and the impact of climate change on water availability (quality and quantity). Sector Tensions Causes Indicator Research priorities (i) Identify current and projected water demand and water efficiency within an Integrated Water Management Agricultural framework at the level expansion in the of the Santa River coast and basin. Increased Competition for water variability in resources during the (ii) Conduct precipitation Number of studies dry season (average interdisciplinary patterns in the on current and water demand above studies of human- highlands are two projected water water supply). No water systems sources of water demand in the mimal ecological flow describing the social, demand, inducing main watersheds in the river. No economic, political, construction of of the HBR mechanisms for institutional and irrgitaion dialogue in place. cultural dimensions of infrastructure water in places without adequate selected as studies of water representative. availability

(iii) Adapt hydrological models to practical use i the watershed

Water (i) Archeological management Conflict between studies of water entities lack Knowledge of government official management systems knowledge and archeological and responible for water appreciation for contemporary management and (ii) Ethnographic native water native water local communities studies of management management (e.g case at Paron contemporary native systems systems lake) water management developed over systems historical times Sector Tensions Causes Indicator Research priorities (i) Develop an applied Integrated Water Mechanisms in Management place for dialogue framework for Santa Conflicts lowland and discussion of River basin. Test agro-export or hidro- objective, application of energy producers technically sound, No mechanisms activities and report and highland water transparent for dialogue and on the efficacy of the users within Santa information on participation in model within the River, as well as water issues in place; weak context of climate between Santa River the Santa River technical change.(ii) Develop and user of watershed.Human capacities in future scenario neighboring resource trained government and studies that are watersheds planning, water users; lack applicable to water competing for the technical aspects of transparency policy development same water resource of water and lack of and inclusion of all (e.g case of management, credibility of stakeholders(iii) Chavimochi irrigation assessment of government water Develop cost/benefit of northern valleyes future demands managers among studies of ecosystem and Chinecas and vulnerabilities users conservation and the irrigation of Santa and adaptation value of and other southern actionsNumber of environmental valleys) Educational systems to design materials mechanisms to available sustain watershed conservation (i) Map economic Global climate corridors and conduct change: analysis of land use associated with changes within these multiple areas (e.g. use the manifesttaions of Water use, Land use analysis territorial boundaries change, from the vegetation cover and systems for the designed by regional persepctive of production systems HBR have been development users both are changing rapidly developed which planners) negative (plant (crops moving are accesible to diseases moving upwars to grassland local researchers (ii) Remote sensing upwards) or areas and planners methods to evaluate positive (crops land use changes moving upwards through low cost to new niches techniques to make it previously accessible to land unavailable) users

Land Use Sector (Agriculture and Livestock) Livestock) and (Agriculture Land Use Sector Soil erosion and loss Economic Grassland (i) Study of grazing of diversity of native dependency on condition as techniques and herd grass species affects livestock measured by composition partures production, the Percent of native break down of edible plants (ii) Studies of the former common social organization of norms for access herding in open range and use of lands and the history pastures and the of puna land use lack of alternative range Sector Tensions Causes Indicator Research priorities management alternatives results in overstocking

(i) sociological studies of institutional Climate change systems in Santa responses are not Government Watershed.(ii) mapped; potential agencies compete Capacity of Exploration of consequences with each other Government alternative (positive or negative without sharing agencies and also arrangements for end outcomes) are information or of private sector water management not evaluated and impelemtation of stakeholders to cooperation in the thre is a sense of joined research operate in region and specially direction absent, no and applied integrated ways for distribution of guidance provided by efforts funds among government agencies communities engaged in conservation measures The current pattern of public investment Very rapid of mining funds and economic direct investmen of transformation of Applied research development funds the region brings (i) Political economy directs strategic by mining companies vast resources studies of mining planning on accentuates non (+3,000% projects in the region: sustainable sustainbale increase in public economic, social and development, development funds available) politics dimensions of territory analisis patterns in HBR. without any change and training of Development proportional management strategies for the investment in (ii) Regional agents in the HBR region lacking (also research and Development studies region for traditional strategic planning development or or management conservation systems in place agencies) Source: from discussion material developed during the conference “Adapting to a World Without Glaciers” (TMI 2009)..

4. Huascaran Biosphere Reserve assumed and projected scenarios for the state of natural resources and socio-economic conditions for the year 2019 and for the year 2029

The emblematic natural resource of Huascarán Biosphere Reserve are its glaciers and it is through the assessment of their future in the years 2019 and 2029 that we provide a framework for possible future developments affecting biological resources and human societies. For this we will rely on a presentation of work in progress introduced at the Conference “Adapting top a World Without Glaciers” (SEI 2009) by the Stockholm Institute (SEI) which is cooperating with the Institute de recherche pour le développement (IRD) and Peru’s National Weather Service (SENAMHI). This team has cooperated to adapt the WEAP model developed by SEI to include the behavior of glaciers in watersheds. The study has been run for the Santa watershed, but published materials are not yet available (the information presented here therefore comes only form the conference presentation quoted above).

The input to elaborate future climate projections in the SEI (2009) study comes from the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model database, relying on 16 models to run projections for A1b and B1 IPCC scenarios. Local climate inputs for the Santa watershed came from four stations located in the upper (Collota), middle (Huaraz) and lower (Paron and Caraz) sections of the highland portion of the Santa River. The adjusted WEAP model results were compared to observed hydrologic behavior of the Santa watershed for the period 1970-1996. The same validation procedure compared simulated stream flow and compared it to observed data for the period 1967 to 1997.

Projected precipitation and temperatures result in two scenarios: a (1) “wet-warmer” scenario (15% increase in precipitation and 0.5 Co increase in temperature); and (2) “dry-warmest” scenario (-10% decrease in precipitation and 2.0 Co increase in temperature).

The historic annual contribution of glacier water to Santa watershed , measured at La Balsa (4,800 km2 of the 11,600 km2 of the watershed) is 17% and non-glacier contribution 83%. In the “dry-warmer” scenario glacier contribution is 16% in the year 2036 and non-glacier contribution 84%, i.e. a small reduction of the historic contribution. In the “wet-warmer” scenario glacier contribution is reduced to 9% and non-glacier contribution grows to 91%, i.e. a more considerable contribution of glaciers to stream flow. Under the “dry-warmest” conditions there is a decrease in glacier area of 47% by 2036 compared to that in 2006. In “wet-warm” conditions there is an additional reduction of glacier area of 25% by 2036 compared to the yea 2006. As noted above, the “dry- warmest” accelerates glacier loss and thus increased water flow during this period may mask the drier conditions of climate. Equally the “wet-warm” condition results in a slower loss of glaciers yet a more severe reduction in glacier contribution to stream flow, possibly masked by increased precipitation.

In summary, during the 2019 and 2029 periods it is likely that in spite of growing challenges posed by climate change and glacier retreat, the tipping point at which glaciers stop contributing water to the basin will not be reached yet. This problem however will be reached at the scale of individual sub-watersheds that have small glaciers.

Modeled Glacier Area Evolution (source: SEI 2009), estimated for a sample of 11 glaciers in Cordillera Blanca.

Percent change Total Area 2006- 2021- 2006- Km2 2006 2021 2036 20021 2036 2036

Dry 347 257 182 26% 29% 47% Wet 347 300 260 14% 13% 25% Source: SEI 2009

Partition of water source at La Balsa (source: SEI 2009) Historic Wet Dry 1969-1999 2006-2036 2006-2036 Total (Million cubic 83,966 82,547 81,602 meters) Glacier 17% 9% 16% Non-Glacier 83% 91% 84% Total 100% 100% 100%

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