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Multi-Source Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Hazard Assessment and Mapping for Huaraz, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

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Multi-Source Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Hazard Assessment and Mapping for Huaraz, Cordillera Blanca, Peru ORIGINAL RESEARCH published: 21 November 2018 doi: 10.3389/feart.2018.00210 Multi-Source Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Hazard Assessment and Mapping for Huaraz, Cordillera Blanca, Peru Holger Frey 1*, Christian Huggel 1, Rachel E. Chisolm 2†, Patrick Baer 1†, Brian McArdell 3, Alejo Cochachin 4 and César Portocarrero 5† 1 Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, 2 Center for Research in Water Resources, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States, 3 Mountain Hydrology and Mass Movements Research Unit, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland, 4 Autoridad Nacional del Agua – Unidad de Glaciología y Recursos Hídricos (ANA-UGRH), Huaraz, Peru, 5 Área Glaciares, Instituto Nacional de Investigación Edited by: en Glaciares y Ecosistemas de Montaña (INAIGEM), Huaraz, Peru Davide Tiranti, Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione The Quillcay catchment in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, contains several glacial lakes, Ambientale (ARPA), Italy including Lakes Palcacocha (with a volume of 17 × 106 m3), Tullparaju (12 × 106 m3), Reviewed by: 6 3 Dhananjay Anant Sant, and Cuchillacocha (2 × 10 m ). In 1941 an outburst of Lake Palcacocha, in one of Maharaja Sayajirao University of the deadliest historical glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) worldwide, destroyed large Baroda, India Fabio Matano, parts of the city of Huaraz, located in the lowermost part of the catchment. Since Consiglio Nazionale Delle Ricerche this outburst, glaciers, and glacial lakes in Quillcay catchment have undergone drastic (CNR), Italy changes, including a volume increase of Lake Palcacocha between around 1990 and *Correspondence: 2010 by a factor of 34. In parallel, the population of Huaraz grew exponentially to more Holger Frey [email protected] than 120,000 inhabitants nowadays, making a comprehensive assessment and mapping of GLOF hazards for the Quillcay catchment and the city of Huaraz indispensable. Here †Present Address: Patrick Baer, we present a scenario-based multi-source GLOF hazard mapping, applying a chain of Geotest AG, Zollikofen, Switzerland interacting numerical models to simulate involved cascading mass movement processes. César Portocarrero, Independent Consultant, Huaraz, Peru Susceptibility assessments for rock-ice avalanches and breach formation at moraine Rachel E. Chisolm, dams were used to define scenarios of different magnitudes and related probabilities, Austin Water, Austin, TX, which are then simulated by corresponding mass movement models. The evaluation United States revealed, that (1) the three investigated lakes pose a significant GLOF hazard to the Specialty section: Quillcay Catchment and the city of Huaraz, (2) in some scenarios the highest hazard This article was submitted to originates from the lake with the smallest volume (Cuchillacocha), and (3) current moraine Geohazards and Georisks, a section of the journal characteristics of Lake Palcacocha cannot be compared to the situation prior and during Frontiers in Earth Science the 1941 outburst. Results of outburst floods obtained by the RAMMS model were then Received: 17 July 2018 converted into intensity maps and corresponding hazard levels according to national Accepted: 31 October 2018 and international standards, and eventually combined into the GLOF hazard map for Published: 21 November 2018 Citation: the entire Quillcay catchment, including the urban area of Huaraz. Besides technical Frey H, Huggel C, Chisolm RE, Baer P, aspects of such a multi-source model-based hazard mapping, special attention is also McArdell B, Cochachin A and paid to approval and dissemination aspects in a complex institutional context. Finally, Portocarrero C (2018) Multi-Source Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Hazard some general conclusions are drawn and recommendations are given, that go beyond Assessment and Mapping for Huaraz, the presented case of the Quillcay Catchment. Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Front. Earth Sci. 6:210. Keywords: dissemination, GLOF, hazard assessment and mapping, process chains, numerical modeling, hazard doi: 10.3389/feart.2018.00210 and risk communication, institutional aspects, DRR Frontiers in Earth Science | www.frontiersin.org 1 November 2018 | Volume 6 | Article 210 Frey et al. Multi-Source GLOF Hazard Assessment and Mapping INTRODUCTION (Wegner, 2014). As a consequence of this disaster, a series of pioneer works in structural risk reduction measures at glacial Outburst floods of glacial lakes often involve cascades of lakes, such as lake volume control and dam reinforcements, have interacting processes at, above, and below the lake (Richardson been implemented since the 1970s at more than 35 critical lakes and Reynolds, 2000; Huggel et al., 2004b), posing particular in the Cordillera Blanca (Portocarrero, 2014; Emmer et al., 2016). challenges for the numerical modeling of such events (Worni In parallel, the high mountain environments of the Cordillera et al., 2014; Mergili, 2016). Nevertheless, as glacier lake outburst Blanca, including the Quillcay catchment above Huaraz with floods (GLOFs) have the farthest potential reach among the several glacial lakes, have undergone drastic changes. Since more various hazards in glacierized mountain regions, integrative than a decade, Lake Palcacocha along with two other glacial hazard assessments of potentially critical glacier lakes are needed lakes in the Quillcay catchment pose again a significant threat for efficient planning of effective disaster risk reduction measures. to Huaraz and its population despite the implementation of Different components of the high mountain cryosphere have remedial works, and requires new risk reduction measures. diverging response times to currently observed and projected In this paper we present a scenario-based elaboration of a future climatic changes. Glaciers are retreating worldwide and GLOF hazard map for the entire Quillcay catchment, considering will largely disappear in mid and low latitudes during the coming multiple hazard sources and using interacting numerical models decades (Huss and Hock, 2015; Zemp et al., 2015). At the same in order to simulate involved chains of cascading processes. time new lakes are forming and growing behind moraine walls We illustrate how model results can be translated in a hazard and in glacier bed depressions revealed by retreating glaciers map and also focus on institutional and practical aspects of (Gardelle et al., 2011; Linsbauer et al., 2015). On the other hand, disseminating this hazard map and related information to the permafrost degradation (Noetzli and Gruber, 2009; Haeberli potentially affected population, an important but challenging task et al., 2016) and de-buttressing of steep rock walls due to in a context of low confidence and mistrust of the population glacier retreat in the surrounding of such lakes are acting on toward governmental institutions and authorities (Carey, 2005, century to millennia time scales (Fischer et al., 2010; McColl 2010; Carey et al., 2012). and Davies, 2013), leading to destabilized mountain flanks and increased availability of mobile loose material located above new and growing water bodies. In addition to the constantly STUDY SITE changing environmental conditions, catastrophic events related to glaciers are often of a unique nature and not reoccurring, In 2003, glacier coverage in the Cordillera Blanca was reported such as the failure of a dam, for instance. Therefore, the to be between 530 km2 (ANA, 2014a) and 595 km2 (Racoviteanu assessment of glacier related hazards cannot rely on historical et al., 2008), depending on the source, and 830 glacial lakes are records of past events. Potentially critical situations in high registered in the national glacial lake inventory (ANA, 2014b). mountains, without historical precedence, thus, require scenario- At the same time, half a million people in the Santa Valley live based modeling approaches for the assessment of current and straight below these glacierized mountains in smaller settlements potential future hazards and risks (Schaub et al., 2013; Schneider and larger towns like Caraz, Yungay, Carhuaz, or the city of et al., 2014; Allen et al., 2016). In GAPHAZ (2017), the Huaraz, the regional capital, with more than 120,000 inhabitants Standing Group on Glacier and Permafrost Hazards (GAPHAZ) (Carey, 2005). of the International Association of Cryospheric Sciences and The Quillcay catchment, a sub-catchment of the Santa River International Permafrost Association (IACS/IPA) provides an basin, is located on the western flank of the Cordillera Blanca. It overview of the related scientific state of the art together with drains toward the city of Huaraz, where the confluence with the recommendations for such quantitative hazard assessment and main Santa River is located. From northwest to southeast it can mapping. be further subdivided into the Cojup Valley with lake Palcacocha The Cordillera Blanca in Peru is a global hot spot of high in its headwater, the Auqui Valley with the lakes Cuchillacocha mountain hazards and risks. Extreme topography with peaks and Tullparaju, and the minor Shallap Valley (Figure 1). above 6,500 m a.s.l., extensive glaciation, a high number of glacier Based on aerial photography interpretations and topographic lakes, and the densely populated Santa Valley in close vicinity at analyses, the volume of Lake Palcacocha before its outburst in its western foot result in a high-risk combination of vulnerable 1941 is estimated to have been around 9 to 11 × 106 m3 (Vilímek
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