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World Bank Document ReportNo. 7892-BEL Belize EconomicMemorandum Public Disclosure Authorized Decenber 15, 1989 LatinAmerica and Caribbean Region FOR OFFICIAL USEONLY Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Documentof the World Bank Public Disclosure Authorized Thisdocument has a restricteddistribution and maybe usedby recipients only in the performanceof theirofficial duties.Its contents may n otherwise be disclosedwithout World Bankauthorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit Belize dollar Since its creation, the Belize dollar (formerly the British Honduras dollar) was tied to sterling at the rate of £1-B7$4.00. In May 1976, this link was broken and the Belize dollar was aligned with the US dollar at the rate of US$1.00 - BZ$2.00. Since May 1976: BZ$1.00 - US$0.50 or US$1.00 = BZ$2.00 GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS ACP African, Caribbean and Pacific BSI Belize Sugar Industries BTL Belizean Telecommunications Limited CARICOM Caribbean Community CBI Caribbean Basin Initiative EEC European Economic Community GDP Gross Domestic Product HHL Hershey Hummingbird Limited IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IMF International Monetary Fund MFA Multi-Fiber Agreement MUV Manufacturing Unit Value PSIP Public Sector Investment Program UK United Kingdom USA United States of America FISCAL YEAR April 1 - March 31 FOROMCAL USEONLY This report is based on the work of a World Bank Economic Mission to Belize in April-May 1989. The Mission comprisedMr. Alberto Herrou- Aragon, Chief of Mission, Mr. Herman Von-Gersdorff(Industry and Tourisvi), Mr. Macdonald Benjamin (AgricultureConsultant), Mr. Nigel Baptiste (CaribbeanDevelopment Bank InvestmentSpecialist) and Ms. Barbara Ossowicka (ResearchAssistant). This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients-only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. TITLE: : Belize - Economic Memorandum COUNTRY s Belize REGION : Latin America and the Caribbean SECTOR s Country Economic REPORT : TYPE CLASSIF NUMBER LANGUAGES CEM Restricted 7892-BEL English PUBDATE ABSTRACT : The Belizian economy has expanded sharply in recent years, with real GDP growfthof 4.52 in 1988. This growth has been led by exports, particularlycitrus and bananas. The current account of the balance of payments registereda deficit of only 2Z of GDP. Public sector savings reached about 142 of GDP. The monetary and fiscal authoritiescontinue to stress fiscal responsibilityin the public enterprisesand the Central Goverment. Although the economy, particularlythe export sector, is likely to continue its rapid expansion through the early 1990s, a number of challengesconfront the authorities. In particular,demand pressures on the labor market are having an adverse effect on manufacturingand agriculture. Tke coming on stream of a single EEC market by 1992 might have an adverse impact on the preferential treatmentfor Bananas enjoyed by Belize. The absence of adequate transportand '-herinfrastruci-tre has constrained the productionpotential of bananas in the country's southern districts. A well focused Public Sector InvestmentProgram of some BZ$326 million (US$163million) is projected for FY89/90-FY92(93. Transport,agriculture and health represent 57Z of the program. The other sectors account for the rest. Given the continuationof good economicmanagement, the relativelygood prospectsfor exports, and Belize's continued ability to attracc and utilize external assistance successfully,the countrywill remain creditworthyfor modest amounts of medium- and long-termforeign borrowing,mainly from official sources. BELIZE ECONOMIC MEMORANDUM Table of Contents Page No COUNTRY DATA ABSTRACT SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS I. MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS . ..................................1 A. Background .............................................. 1 B. Recent Economic Developments............................ 1 C. Savings and Investment.................................. 2 D. Public Sector Finances.................................. 4 E. Money and Credit........................................ 5 F. Prices and Wages ........................................ 7 G. Balance of Payments..................................... 7 II. DEVELOPMENT ISSUES......................................... 8 A. Introduction......................................... 8 B. Agricultural Sector ......... ........................... 8 C. Manufacturing Sector.................................... 15 D. Tourism ........................................ 16 III. PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM .............................. 17 IV. ECONOMIC ISSUES AND PROSPECTS................................. 20 ANNEX I. GOVERNMENTS PROJECT LIST STATISTICAL APPENDIX MAP (IBRD 17093R1) * Pege I of 2 CONTRYDATA - BELIZE AREA POPULATION DENSITY 22,000 KM2 179.8 (1966) 8.2 per km2 Rate of Growth: 2.3 (1970-63) 16.1 per k-2 of aurble land POPULATIONCHARACTERISTICS (19Z7) HEALTH(1937) Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000) U.? Population per Physeilon 2,068.0 Crude D-eth Rate (p.r 1,000) a.0 Population per Hospital SWd 300.6 Infant Mortality (per 1,000 livo births) 20.1 INCOMEDISTRIBUTION DISTRIBUTIONOF LAND OliERSHIP % of National Income,Highest quintile % owned by top 10% of Owners Lowest quinttl- X owned by Smallest 10X of Owners ACCESSTO SAFEWATER (1980) ACCESSTO ELECTRICITY(1980) % of Population - Urban 67.6 N of Population - Urbon 72.0 - Rural 29.6 - Rural 65.0 NUTRITION (1977) EDUCATION(1960) Caloric intake as % of Requlrwente 126.0 Adult Literacy Rate X 92.0 Per capita Protein intake 69.3 Primary School Enrol lent X p5.0 OW PER CAPITA IN 1908: Us51,460 GROSSNATIONAL FRODUCT IN 1987 OUTPUTIN 1967 Value Added USSMillion X US# Million % GNPof MarketPrices 244.3 100.0 Cross Domestic Investment 60.9 24.9 Agr culture 47.6 22.0 Gross Domestic Savings 54.5 22.8 Industry and Mining 47.4 21.9 Current Account Balance 0.7 0.$ Servicee 121.7 56.2 Exports of Goods, NFS 14.1 560.6 Total 216.7 100.0 Imports of Goods, NFS 149.4 61.2 GOVERNMENTFINANCES Consolidated Public Sector Central Government BZe Million (X) of GOP BZ8Million (%) of GDP 1966/87 197/668 1966/67 1967/86 1939/87 1987/66 1966/67 197/88 Current Revenue 139.4 164.6 83.0 82.7 111.7 184.2 26.4 26.6 Current Expenditure 108.2 112.1 24.4 22.a 102.3 110.6 24.8 22.0 Current Account Belince 88.2 62.7 8.6 10.6 8.9 28.4 2.1 4.6 Capital Expenditure 42.4 41.0 10.0 6.1 88.6 26.6 8.0 5.7 ExternalAssistance (net) 19.6 27.5 4.7 5.6 14.9 9.7 8.5 1.9 not applicable not available Page 2 of 2 COUNTRYDATA - OELIZE MONEY.CREDIT AND PRICES 198113 1964 1oss 1916 197 1908 -------- BZS Million-Outstanding End Period-------- Monoy *nd Quesi Money 141.8 161.8 160.6 179.4 214.6 238.2 eank Credit to The Centrol Covernment 63.1 79.7 90.4 94.6 62.7 28.6 Bonk Credit to Privote Sector 124.1 136.6 127.0 126.6 166.2 212.5 ----------- Percontdgo or Index Numbors----------- Money and quosi Money as W of WDP 39.0 38.9 40.6 42.5 42.6 43.6 Annual percentage changes in: General Price Index 2.6 6.3 -0.6 2.4 2.0 0.9 Bank Credit to Public Sector 49.7 17.0 18.4 4.6 -12.6 -65.2 Bank Credit to Private Sector 6.6 9.4 -6.5 -0.4 23.6 86.0 BALANCEOF PAYMENTS(USS Million) MERCHANDISEEXPORTS (AVERAGE 1964-86) */ 1984 196 1936 1967 1968 use Million (O Export of Goods, NFS 112.2 '04.4 122.? 148.1 167.9 Sugar and Molasses 30.6 36.8 Import of Goods, NS 126.8 118.8 120.7 149.4 179.6 aonanas 5.4 6.9 Resources Gap (deficit a-) -14.6 -14.4 2.0 -6.8 -11.7 Citrus Products 13.3 16.9 Fish Products 7.2 9.1 Factor Service (Not) -10.6 -11.8 -9.6 -7.5 -9.0 All Other Comaodties 22.3 26.8 Not Transfors 12.5 19.0 11.4 14.5 16.0 Total 78.8 100.0 Current Account Balance -12.7 -6.7 8.6 0.7 -6.7 Public Capital 11.1 18.6 18.1 6.7 16.4 GrossDisbursements 4.1 17.0 8.1 7.7 14.7 Afortization -1.7 -7.6 -5.7 -6.5 -5.6 EXTERNALDEST, DECE*uR 31, 1966 Capital Cronts 8.7 9.4 9.7 6.6 7:6 US$ Million Other Capital (0et) -6.9 -6.6 -6.1 0.8 8.0 Public Debt, Incl. Guaranteed 116.1 Non-Guaranteed Private Debt .. Change in Reserves 7.6 -8.8 -10.8 -9.0 -19.7 Total Outstanding A Disbursed (-=Increase) RATE OF EXCHANGE DEBT SERVICERATIO FOR 1988 b/ Since May 1976 US91.00 a BZS2.00 Public Debt, Incl.Quaranteed 6.4 BZ21.00 = USSO.60 Non-Ouaranteed Privete Debt .. Total Outstanding A Disbursed IBRD/IDA LENDINO (DECEMBER81, 1988 - MILLIONS USI) IilR IDA Outstanding A Disbursed 7.2 0.0 Undi*buroed 19.0 0.0 Outstanding Incl. Undiebursed 26.2 0.0 */ Ratio of debt servico to exports of goods and non-fact, services,excluding re-exports. b/ Includes financial capital, errors and omisslons, and changes In orrears. c/ Excludes r.-exports. not applicable not avallabl SUMMARYAND CONCLUSIONS i. The Bel4zean economy has been experiencinga period of rapid structuralchange and vigorous growth thanks mainly to the successful implementationof the Government'sdevelopment strategy. The major thrust of the strategyhas 'jeento promote export-ledgrowth by diversifying agriculturalproduction and exports away from the excessivedominance of sugar into producticnof bananas, citrus, cocoa and fisheries,while simultaneouslydeveloping manufacturing--mainly garments--and tourism. The creditableperformanice of the agriculturalsector from the mid-eightiesto date, and the gradual emergenceof manufacturingand tourism as increasinglyimportant activities, reflect the impact of both government policies and of changes in the country'sterms of trade. ii Economic performanceduring the early to mid-1980s was affectedby the sharp deteriorationof the country'sterms of trade and an inadequate domestic policy response;economic growth averaged only 1.2X per year during that period. In 1985, economic growth slowed down to 2Z as sugar prices and exports fell to their lowest level in six years.
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