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Government of Belize and the Caribbean Development Bank Country Poverty Assessment Final Report Volume 1. Main Report August 2010

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Government of Belize and the Caribbean Development Bank Country Poverty Assessment Final Report Volume 1. Main Report August 2010 Government of Belize and the Caribbean Development Bank Country Poverty Assessment Final Report Volume 1. Main Report August 2010 Halcrow Group Limited In association with Decision Economics and Penny Hope Ross Working with The Belize National Assessment Team Government of Belize and the Caribbean Development Bank Country Poverty Assessment Final Report Volume 1. Main Report August 2010 Halcrow Group Limited In association with Decision Economics and Penny Hope Ross Working with The Belize National Assessment Team Halcrow Group Limited Vineyard House 44 Brook Green London W6 7BY Tel +44 (0)20 7602 7282 Fax +44 (0)20 7603 0095 www.halcrow.com Halcrow Group Limited has prepared this report in accordance with the instructions of their client, Caribbean Development Bank, for their sole and specific use. Any other persons who use any information contained herein do so at their own risk. © Halcrow Group Limited 2011 Contents 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 CPA Objectives 1 1.3 CPA Methodology 2 1.4 CPA Study Organisation and Process 4 1.5 Report Structure 6 PART A. Study Context and Poverty in Belize 8 2 Country Overview 10 2.1 Geographical Setting 10 2.2 Historical Setting and Governance 12 2.3 Governance 14 2.4 International Memberships and Treaties 14 2.5 Population and Households 15 2.6 Economy 23 2.7 Employment and Economic Activity 34 2.8 Housing 40 2.9 Human Development 42 3 The Extent of Poverty in Belize 44 3.1 General 44 3.2 The Definition of Poverty and its Measurement 44 3.3 The Calculation of Poverty Lines in Belize 49 3.4 Poverty Indicators 53 3.5 The Level of Poverty in Belize in 2009 and International Comparisons 54 3.6 Changes in Poverty between 2002 and 2009 55 3.7 International Comparisons 63 3.8 CPA Implications 64 4 The Causes and Characteristics of Poverty in Belize 66 4.1 General 66 4.2 Poverty and Geographical Location 66 4.3 Demographic Characteristics 70 4.4 Poverty and Household Characteristics 72 Halcrow / NAT, Belize Country Poverty Assessment, Final Report, August 2010. i 4.5 Poverty and Economic Activity 76 4.6 Health and Poverty 84 4.7 Education and Poverty 85 4.8 Housing and Poverty 86 4.9 Overview of LSMS Results 87 4.10 Perceptions of Poverty, Difficulties Encountered and Coping Strategies 90 4.11 What should be Done? The View from Belize’s Communities 101 4.12 The Causes of Poverty in Belize 103 4.13 Implications for the Study 118 PART B. Institutional Analysis and Special Studies 120 5 Institutional Analysis – Economic Sectors 122 5.1 General 122 5.2 The National Poverty Elimination Strategy and Action Plan (NPESAP), 2009-2013 122 5.3 The Agriculture Sector 125 5.4 Trade and Finance 132 5.5 Tourism 134 5.6 NGOs working in Rural and Community Development 135 5.7 Ministry of Natural Resources, Environment and Industry (MNREI) - Land Policy 139 5.8 The Ministry of Housing 143 5.9 Belize Social Investment Fund 144 5.10 Study Implications 147 6 Institutional Analysis – Social Sectors 150 6.1 General 150 6.2 Health 150 6.3 Education 165 6.4 Social Services 173 6.5 Belize Social Security Board (BSSB) 180 6.6 The Police 184 6.7 Youth for the Future (YFF) 189 6.8 NGOs working on Women and Child Issues 191 6.9 Organisations for Older Persons and the Disabled 192 6.10 Religious Organisations 196 6.11 The UN Agencies 197 6.12 PPA Views on Assistance Received from Government and NGOs 202 6.13 Coverage and Targeting of Government Programmes 204 6.14 Government Social Spending and Distributional Impacts 207 Halcrow / NAT, Belize Country Poverty Assessment, Final Report, August 2010. ii 6.15 Overview of Social Sector IA 213 7 Special Studies 216 7.1 General 216 7.2 Belize South Side 216 7.3 Toledo 223 8 The Millennium Development Goals and Poverty 243 8.1 The Current Status of the MDGs 243 8.2 Study Team Comments 247 PART C. The Programme of Action 250 9 Synthesis: Key Issues and Lessons Learned 252 9.1 General 252 9.2 Changes in Poverty since 2002 252 9.3 Government Performance and the NPESAP – Has there been a Failure? 254 9.4 But Could the Government have done Better? 258 9.5 Lessons Learned 259 9.6 Some Key Issues 259 10 The Programme of Action 266 10.1 General 266 10.2 Governance and Institutional Strengthening 268 10.3 Recommendations: Economic Sectors 273 10.4 Recommendations: Health 279 10.5 Recommendations: Education 281 10.6 Recommendations: Social Services 284 10.7 Recommendations: Land, Housing and Infrastructure 289 10.8 Belize Southside 292 10.9 Recommendations: Toledo 295 10.10 Some Indicative Costings 297 10.11 Monitoring and Evaluation (M & E) and Targets 297 10.12 The Priorities 301 10.13 Concluding Remarks 306 Appendix A. List of References 308 Halcrow / NAT, Belize Country Poverty Assessment, Final Report, August 2010. iii List of Tables and Boxes Table 1.1. National Assessment Team Membership .............................................................................................. 4 Box 2.1. Ratification of Human Rights Treaties and Conventions .....................................................................15 Table 2.1 Population Growth in Belize, 1980 to 2009 ..........................................................................................15 Table 2.2 Population Growth and Distribution by District 1991 to 2009 .........................................................16 Table 2.3 Components of Population Growth, 2005 to 2008 .............................................................................16 Table 2.4. Origin of Immigrant Household Heads ................................................................................................17 Table 2.5. Foreign-Born Household Heads by District of Residence, 2009 .....................................................18 Table 2.6. Distribution of Ethnic Groups within Districts, 2000 and 2009 ......................................................19 Table 2.7. Urbanisation, 1980 to 2009 .....................................................................................................................20 Table 2.8. Dependency Ratios for Belize, 1991 to 2009 .......................................................................................21 Table 2.9. GDP by Activity .......................................................................................................................................23 Table 2.10. Percentage Contribution to GDP by Sector ......................................................................................23 Table 2.11. Annual Percentage Change in GDP by Activity ................................................................................24 Table 2.12. GDP per Capita, 1998-2008 .................................................................................................................25 Table 2.13. Regional Economic Indicators .............................................................................................................26 Table 2.14. Commercial Bank Interest Rates ..........................................................................................................27 Table 2.15. Sectoral Composition of Commercial Bank Loans and Advances .................................................28 Table 2.16. Belize: Public Sector Debt Servicing, 2001-2008...............................................................................29 Table 2.17. Government Finances, 2006 to 2008 ..................................................................................................30 Table 2.18. Total External Debt by Source, 2008 .................................................................................................31 Table 2.19: Positive and Negative Features of the Belize Economy .................................................................34 Table 2.20. Working Age Population, Labour Force and Participation Rate, 1998-2009 ...............................35 Table 2.21. Unemployment Rates by Sex and Age, 1998 - 2009 .........................................................................35 Table 2.22. Unemployment Rates by District, 2007 and 2009 .............................................................................36 Table 2.23. Distribution of Employment by Sex and Industry, 2009 .................................................................37 Table 2.24. Percentage Distribution of Employment by Industry and District, 2009 ....................................37 Table 2.25. Occupational Status, 2002 and 2009 ...................................................................................................38 Halcrow / NAT, Belize Country Poverty Assessment, Final Report, August 2010. iv Table 2.26. Housing Quality Index Indicators, 1995, 2002, 2009 .......................................................................40 Table 2.27. Overcrowding by District and Urban Rural, 2002 and 2009 .........................................................40 Table 2.28. Ownership of Durable Household Goods, 2002 and 2009 .............................................................41 Table 2.29. Ownership of Household Goods by District, 2009 ........................................................................42 Table 2.30. Human Development Index, 2007 .....................................................................................................43 Box 3.1. The Multiple Faces of Poverty in Belize .................................................................................................45 Box 3.2. Generic Features of Wellbeing and Illbeing ............................................................................................46
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