Hiscox WTPV Aug 2008.Indd

AUGUST 2008 Table of contents

Transnational terrorism 2

Proﬁ le: Insecurity in Chad 3

Worldwide terrorist activity 4 Africa Americas Asia Europe Middle East and North Africa

In-depth 8

Coming up 9

Three assailants were killed in an attack on the US consulate in Istanbul

TURKEY

Interior Minister Besir Atalay on 10 July said that four people had been detained in connection with a shooting incident outside the US consulate in Istanbul on 9 July, while the driver of the vehicle used by the attackers was arrested and his car seized. Three police ofﬁ cers and three of the attackers were killed in the incident.

Although no group has yet claimed responsibility, police are believed to For more information about Hiscox or Control Risks, please contact: suspect that al-Qaida or al-Qaida-related groups were behind the shootings. However, while Islamist extremists are currently the most likely suspects, Stephen Ashwell the attack appears to have been poorly planned and unprofessional and Tel: 020 7448 6725 does not seem to be indicative of the emergence of a sophisticated Islamist 1 Great St Helen’s, London EC3A 6HX extremist threat in Turkey. The attackers did not succeed in entering the [email protected] consulate, which is heavily fortifi ed, and were all reportedly killed by one www.hiscox.com police offi cer after they had taken the other offi cers by surprise, suggesting a lack of training and planning on their part. In addition, despite initial reports Peter Simpson that the attackers were armed with machine guns, they appear to have in Tel: 020 7970 2373 Cottons Centre, Cottons Lane, fact been using pistols and a shotgun, which are easily available in Turkey, London SE1 2QG suggesting a lack of access to more sophisticated weapons or technology. [email protected] www.control-risks.com

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SAUDI ARABIA ARRESTS

The Interior Ministry on 25 June announced that it had arrested 701 suspected Islamist extremists since the beginning of the year but that 181 had been released because of a lack of evidence. The ministry said that it was still holding 520 militants and that many had entered the kingdom from Africa or Asia on the pretext of performing the Hajj or Umra pilgrimages at the holy sites in Mecca. The statement added that the security forces had intercepted one particular cell near an oil-export facility near the Red Sea port of Yanbu and broken up an African cell planning an attack in Eastern Province; an arms cache was reportedly recovered in the latter incident. Meanwhile, an unidentifi ed security offi cial informed the local press that al-Qaida second-in- command Ayman al-Zawahiri had sent a letter to one cell’s leader instructing him to collect funds in preparation for the arrival of fi ghters from Iraq, Afghanistan and North Africa.

Although the announcement would appear to conﬁ rm that extremist groups remain active in the kingdom, its tenor and content suggest that it was aimed primarily at persuading Saudi security forces claim to have arrested 701 suspected the international community and foreign businesses extremists since the beginning of the year that the government remains committed to combating had also been detained for questioning. One of the nine main extremism. Importantly, the announcement differed from suspects was a Singaporean national who had reportedly met previous statements in that it highlighted the role of foreign with Osama bin Laden several times. Police reports claim that extremist cells, in particular African and Asian ‘rings’, and the alleged terrorists had initially planned to target Western attributed several undisclosed but thwarted plots to them. and foreign interests in Sumatra, but that they had changed The focus on foreign and non-Arab extremists appears to their intentions prior to their arrests. Reports also claim that represent an attempt to persuade the Saudi population several of the suspects have ties with bomb-maker Noordin and foreign businesses that while Arab extremists may Top, a member of the regional Islamist Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) orchestrate attacks from outside the country, foreign network, which in the past has had close links with al-Qaida. extremists will be responsible for implementing them, especially against the oil industry and the security forces. JORDAN SHOOTING ATTACK

INDONESIA COUNTER-TERRORISM OPERATION A gunman late on 16 July opened ﬁ re on a bus carrying members of a Lebanese orchestra at the Roman Local media on 3 July reported that Indonesia’s elite counter- Amphitheatre near the central al-Hashimiyah Square in terrorism police had arrested nine suspects and seized 22 the capital Amman, injuring four Lebanese nationals and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in an operation in South an Arab-Israeli tourist, as well as their Jordanian driver. Sumatra. The latest arrests and bomb seizures – of devices Although Information Minister Nasser Judeh played down reportedly comprising bullets and other fragmentary material speculation that the incident was politically motivated, – highlight the increased effectiveness of national intelligence stating that the attack was of a criminal nature, the attacker is and surveillance capabilities. They also illustrate that, despite likely to have been motivated by extremism, underlining the the fact that no terrorist attacks have taken place in Indonesia latent risk posed by small-scale and spontaneous extremist since 2005, the police and security services have maintained attacks in Jordan. He is thought to have been an 18-year- a high level of vigilance and continue to expand their capacity. old Palestinian who may have mistakenly believed that the Lebanese orchestra members were from Israel. The gunman National police spokesman Abu Bakar Nataprawira reported shot himself and reportedly remains in a critical condition. that, in addition to the nine suspects arrested in relation to the IED cache, an undisclosed number of other individuals

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NEW REBEL OFFENSIVE

Ali Gadaye, spokesman for the rebel National Alliance, announced in late June that his group was ready for talks with the government after government forces reportedly engaged the rebels in a decisive battle at Am Zoer (50 miles (80km) north-east of the eastern city of Abeché) and claimed to have killed up to 160 rebels. The rebels had previously launched a series of attacks near the restive border region with Sudan, and threatened to move towards the capital Ndjamena to overthrow the government.

Although the rebels claim that only 27 of their number were killed at Am Zoer, the subsequent lull in fi ghting and the National Alliance’s lack of success in advancing towards Ndjamena point to a weakening of the rebel campaign. While the proclaimed government defeat of the rebels is likely to strengthen President Idriss Déby’s position in the short term, rising international pressure in the aftermath of a rebel attack on Ndjamena in February, combined with the threat of further rebel advances, could lead to some concessions on Déby’s part. However, the president’s lack of commitment to reform and the establishment of a genuine consensus government means that a peaceful resolution of the rebels’ demands for A street in the capital Ndajema following fi ghting between greater inclusion in government is unlikely in the short term. government forces and rebels in February government frequently cross the border into Chad, which BACKGROUND Darfur rebel movements use as a rear base. The joint African Union-United Nations Mission in Darfur (UNAMID), which The rebellion has its roots in the confl ict in the western Darfur when fully deployed is expected to comprise a total of 26,000 region of neighbouring Sudan. The east of the country was peacekeepers, has begun to deploy since early 2008, but initially destabilised by an infl ux of refugees from the Darfur is likely to face severe obstacles to its effective operation. confl ict, though the rebels have continued to attract a number of deserters from the national army. Rebel activity has spread OUTLOOK from the east to central areas and in April 2006 and February briefl y to Ndjamena, posing signifi cant security risks. The deployment of a new 3,000-strong EU peacekeeping force earlier this year to the volatile border region between The Darfur confl ict, which emerged in 2003, was fuelled Chad, the Central African Republic (CAR) and Darfur has by the economic and political marginalisation of the local the potential to stabilise the situation. However, in the short population by the Sudanese government, as well as term it is likely to push rebel unrest further into the interior. tensions between ethnic and tribal communities over access Meanwhile, although the activities of southern militias have to and legal control of land. These combined to provoke an been limited by repressive crackdowns, ethnic tensions uprising by two insurgent groups. Heavy fi ghting during the between groups based in the southern oil-producing region fi rst two years of the confl ict caused large-scale population could resurface if revenues are not equitably distributed. displacement because of the government’s initial counter- insurgency strategy, which was characterised by aerial While another rebel advance on Ndjamena cannot be ruled bombardment and attacks on rebel groups and civilian out, a lull in fi ghting in the east and the failure of the rebels to populations by tribal militias allied with the government. move towards Ndjamena in the most recent offensive means that the likelihood of such a campaign being successful has Cross-border movements of refugees and rebel groups diminished in the short term. However, skirmishes between have given the confl ict a regional dimension. Sudanese government forces and rebels will persist in the east. militias and Chadian rebel groups backed by the Sudanese

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AFRICA

Mali: The government and ethnic-Tuareg rebels from the Democratic Alliance for Change on 21 July signed a ceaseﬁ re agreement during peace talks in Algiers (Algeria). Suspected rebels on 19 July had attacked a gendarmerie (paramilitary police) outpost in Tessalit (northern Kidal region), abducting several soldiers and seizing weapons, ammunition and vehicles.

Nigeria: The main ethnic-Ijaw militant Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) on 12 July ended a two-week-long ceaseﬁ re in protest at an alleged offer by the British government to help the government to tackle unrest in the oil-rich Niger delta region.

The previous day, two senior employees of a German construction company were abducted in Emohua (19 miles (30km) east of Port Harcourt, Rivers state) when unidentiﬁ ed gunmen used explosives to overturn the armoured vehicle in which the men were travelling.

Cameroon: Three soldiers were injured on 12 July in an attack by unidentiﬁ ed gunmen at Munya, near the border with Nigeria. The assailants exchanged ﬁ re with the soldiers before making off with guns and ammunition. Terrorism Other political violence Warnings/arrests

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Bolivia: At least three people were injured and a number of vehicles were damaged on 13 July during clashes between pro-government demonstrators and supporters of the opposition Podemos party in Cochambamba (Cochambamba department).

Brazil: Members of the Landless Workers’ Movement (MST) on 21 July invaded ofﬁ ces of the Agrarian Reform Institute (INCRA) in the states of São Paulo, Ceará, Paraíba, Maranhão, Alagoas, Bahia and Goiás in protest against the government’s land settlement policy.

Chile: Police clashed with students and teachers demonstrating against an educational reform bill in the capital Santiago on 8 July. Protesters threw rocks at police, who retaliated by ﬁ ring water cannon and tear gas. At least 150 people were arrested.

Colombia: The security forces on 2 July rescued 15 people being held by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Three days later, the army seized more than one ton of high explosives belonging to the FARC in Bojacá (Cundinamarca department).

ASIA China: Provincial authorities in Yunnan province (about 1,243 miles (2,000km) south-west of the capital Beijing) on 21 July reported that two separate explosions had occurred on public buses during morning rush hour in the provincial capital Kunming. At least three people were reportedly killed and several others injured.

Pakistan: A suicide bomb attack on 6 July near the Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) in the capital Islamabad killed at least 21 people and injured around 40 others. The attack coincided with the ﬁ rst anniversary of the July 2007 military operation against radical students at the mosque.

Sri Lanka: The military on 16 July announced that it had captured a key naval base of the separatist guerrilla Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in the north- western town of Vidattaltivu. The capture came after army chief Lt-Gen Sarath Fonseka’s 30 June declaration that the military would defeat the LTTE within one year.

Afghanistan: A powerful explosion on 7 July near the Thailand: A Muslim insurgent group on 17 July ambushed Indian embassy and interior ministry in the Shahre-Nau a military vehicle in the southern province of Pattani, killing area of the capital Kabul killed at least 40 people and two soldiers and injuring ﬁ ve others. The attack came injured several others. Indian National Security Adviser MK shortly after three men claiming to be key leaders of the Narayanan on 12 July said that Pakistan’s Inter-Services insurgency announced a ceaseﬁ re in a video broadcast. Intelligence (ISI) agency had been responsible for the attack.

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Azerbaijan: Numerous exchanges of ﬁ re between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces along the line of control in the secessionist region of Nagorno-Karabakh were reported between 16 and 18 July. There were no reports of casualties

Belarus: An apparent rudimentary explosive device detonated in the early hours of 4 July at an open air concert in the centre of the capital Minsk, injuring up to 50 people. President Alexander Lukashenko was at the event to mark Belarussian Independence Day, but was at a distance from the explosion. A second explosive device was discovered in the same district. It remains unclear who carried out the attack.

Georgia: Small arms and mortar fi re in the volatile separatist region of South Ossetia were reportedly exchanged on 4 July in the unoffi cial regional capital Tskhinvali. Local authorities reported at least three casualties. An additional fi ve small explosions were reported on 2 and 6 July near the border. Meanwhile, an explosion in a café late on 6 July reportedly killed four people in the town of Gali, including the group’s most effective cell over recent years, particularly local head of the separatist government’s security service. in carrying out larger-scale attacks such as car bombs. Kosovo: An explosive device on 24 June detonated in a Those arrested are suspected of responsibility for three car belonging to a Kosovo police offi cer in the northern small-scale attacks on 20 July at beaches in the Cantabria town of Mitrovica. There were no reported casualties, region on the northern Spanish coast. A fourth exploded though initial reports indicated that the police offi cer at a nearby golf course, causing one minor injury. Earlier, was targeted directly as a member of the town’s Serb a small device exploded outside a bank in the town of community. Recent ethnic divisions and provocations have Getxo (Vizcaya province). The attacks effectively marked focused particularly on members of the local police force. the beginning of ETA’s ‘summer campaign’ – an annual tradition whereby small attacks at or near tourist sites Serbia: Serbian authorities on 21 July announced the arrest of accelerate in late July before tailing off in early August. war-crimes suspect Radovan Karadzic, the former president of the Serb entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Republika Srpska (RS). Karadzic will now be extradited to the International Switzerland: Federal police offi ce (Fedpol) director Jean- Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) in the Luc Vez on 4 July presented the organisation’s report on Hague (Netherlands), which has indicted him for war crimes. the country’s internal security in 2007. The report identifi ed He also stands accused of ordering massacres and ethnic Islamist extremism as the most signifi cant potential threat cleansing during the 1992-95 war in Bosnia and Herzegovina. to Switzerland’s security while stressing that no evidence of any plots had emerged in 2007. Nevertheless, Fedpol Spain: Police and civil guards acting on the orders of dealt with more than 2,500 potential links to international chief counter-terrorism magistrate Baltasar Garzón in terrorism, 171 of which were classifi ed as ‘threats’. Vez the early hours of 22 July arrested nine people – eight of stated that the threat to Switzerland stemmed primarily them in Vizcaya province (Basque Country) – believed from its location at the centre of Western Europe, bordering to be the members of Basque separatist terrorist group numerous other countries where threats are more serious ETA’s Comando Vizcaya (Biscay cell). The civil guard or where plots have been uncovered with greater regularity. stated after the raids that it believed the cell had been functionally dismantled. The arrests are a major blow to ETA, with the Comando Vizcaya having been the

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Algeria: Insurgents carried out a number of small-scale attacks in Bouira, Boumerdes and Tizi Ouzou provinces between 6 and 15 July:

• 15 Jul: Three people were injured when a roadside bomb detonated targeting an ambulance near the city of Boumerdes (Boumerdes province). • 13 Jul: Communal guards repelled an insurgent attack near Ahnif (Bouira province). • 10 Jul: A roadside bomb injured a soldier in an army convoy near Sidi Daoud (Boumerdes province); in an unrelated incident, the security forces killed an insurgent in an ambush near Thenia (Boumerdes province). • 7 Jul: An armed group intercepted several vehicles at a faux barrage (false roadblock) near Mizrana (Tizi Ouzou province) and set fi re to a truck carrying food provisions for a local army contingent. • 6 Jul: An insurgent group attacked a police commissariat in Ouacifs (Tizi Ouzou province). No one was injured. Morocco: The Associated Press news agency on 11 July published an interview with a senior security forces offi cial Egypt: Ten people were killed and 27 others injured on 3 who said that 11 suspected Islamist extremists arrested in July in a shoot-out linked to a land dispute between local May were planning to stage terrorist attacks against tourism- clans in Mit Abou el-Attar village (Qalyoubiya province). related targets during the summer. In a separate development, a court on 10 July jailed for life a man who in August 2007 Iraq: A roadside bomb exploded on 26 June near the attempted to detonate a gas canister next to a tourist bus in the border village of Siagwayz (Penjwin district, around 59 city of Meknes (75 miles (120km) east of the capital Rabat). miles (96km) north-east of Suleimaniyah) in the northern Kurdistan Region (KR). The explosion killed two suspected Saudi Arabia: The Interior Ministry on 25 June extremists who were attempting to target border guards. announced that it had arrested 701 suspected Islamist extremists since the beginning of the year, but that Israel: A Palestinian construction worker on 2 July used a 181 had been released because of a lack of evidence. bulldozer to attack cars and overturn a bus in Jerusalem before being shot dead. The attack was followed by a similar incident Sudan: Seven peacekeepers in the UN-African Union on 22 July, when the driver of a bulldozer was shot dead (AU) Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) were killed and 21 after ramming cars and a public bus in the centre of the city. others injured on 9 July in an ambush by an as-yet- unidentifi ed armed group in North Darfur; around ten Separately, six people, including two Arab Israelis and four UNAMID vehicles were also destroyed in the attack. Palestinian residents of East Jerusalem, were indicted on 18 July on charges of involvement in terrorist activities and having Turkey: Interior Minister Besir Atalay on 10 July said ties to al-Qaida. However, the arrests are unlikely to indicate a that four people had been detained in connection with signifi cantly increased terrorist threat from al-Qaida in Israel. a shooting attack outside the US consulate in Istanbul on 9 July and that the driver of the vehicle used by the Lebanon: Fresh factional violence occurred on 8-9 July attackers had been arrested and his car seized. Three in the northern city of Tripoli, around 43 miles (70km) police offi cers and three of the attackers were killed. north of the capital Beirut. At least two people were killed and a number of others injured during the clashes.

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COLOMBIA

On 2 July, the security forces staged an audacious operation to rescue 15 hostages held by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) leftist guerrilla group, including three US subcontractors and French-Colombian former presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt. Security forces agents who had inﬁ ltrated the FARC managed to convince the commander in charge of the hostages - ‘Cesar’ - that they were to be transported to the south of the country to be placed under the direct control of Guillermo León Sáenz (‘Alfonso Cano’), the FARC’s new leader. ‘Cesar’ was told that they would be transported by helicopters rented by a sympathetic non-governmental organisation (NGO). However, the helicopters’ occupants were undercover special security units that ﬂ ew into the arranged location and picked up the hostages and two FARC guards. Once in the air, they overpowered the two guards and liberated the hostages.

The rescue represents the latest in a string of setbacks for the FARC, raising speculation over the group’s eventual French-Colombian former presidential candidate Ingrid collapse or the commencement of a peace process. Betancourt was freed from FARC captivity on 2 July. However, on 18 July FARC guerrillas kidnapped ten tourists travelling on the Atrato river in Chocó department. In a NIGERIA letter released on 21 July, Rodrigo Granda, the FARC’s ‘foreign minister’, pledged that the group would ‘prefer to At a meeting on 16 July with President Umaru Musa Yaradua die in combat’ rather than surrender to the government. in London, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced that the UK will provide the Nigerian army with training and CHINA advice to tackle insecurity in the Niger delta. The main ethnic- Ijaw militant Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Speculation over the terrorist threat to China – which has Delta (MEND) on 12 July ended a two-week-long ceasefi re swelled in anticipation of the Beijing Olympic Games (which in response to rumours of such British military support. The begin on 8 August) – continued to intensify in July amid a government’s acceptance of British support constitutes a spate of offi cial reports of foiled plots and a series of security signifi cant change in its Niger delta policy; the government incidents. Potentially the most concerning of these occurred has long insisted that the crisis is a domestic issue and on 21 July, when two bombs exploded on separate public refused any foreign involvement. However, rising global fuel buses on the same street, within a short time of each other. prices are contributing to mounting international pressure to The explosions occurred in the south-western city of Kunming, increase global production and bring down petrol (gas) prices. the provincial capital of Yunnan. At least three people were reportedly killed and several others injured in the attacks. Nonetheless, short-term prospects for a full resolution of insecurity in the Niger delta remain poor. Although a host Most of the fundamental questions about the incidents of federal government initiatives underline recognition of remain unanswered. However, reports to date have the severity of the problem, the lack of a cohesive strategy suggested that they were deliberate bombings, and could involving all three tiers of government, and the continued constitute a co-ordinated series of attacks of a kind not fragmentation and proliferation of groups in the region will seen before in a Chinese city. If evidence emerges that the weaken the impact of proposed peace talks. However, Kunming bombings constitute a terrorist - rather than criminal a full-blown insurgency that would force a complete - attack, it would reveal new capabilities and methods. shutdown of the oil sector remains unlikely because of the However, in the absence of such evidence, it remains government’s military presence in the region. The most likely premature to assume that the Kunming – and other recent scenario remains continued deadlock in negotiations and – attacks constitute a new or heightened threat of terrorism. a low-level insurgency marked by further militant attacks.

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NEWS AND EVENTS

These are some of the events that Control Risks is organising in the next few months:

13-15 Oct – ‘Managing a Kidnap’; workshop (London)

22-23 Oct – ‘Advanced Kidnap Management’; incident management course (New York)

3-5 Dec – ‘Kidnap and Extortion; Incident Management Courses’; workshop (Miami)

For further information on these and other events, please contact events@ control-risks.com

COUNTRIES TO WATCH

Bolivia: There will be an increased threat of civil unrest in the run-up to recall referendums on 10 August.

China: Concerns are growing that terrorist groups may target the Beijing Olympic Games scheduled to take place on 8-24 August.

Nigeria: Insecurity is likely to persist in the oil-producing Niger delta after the region’s main militant group on 12 July ended a two-week-long ceaseﬁ re.

Serbia: Further protests are possible following the capture of former president of the Bosnian Serb autonomous region Radovan Karadzic.

KEY DATES

28-29 July – Peru: Independence holiday; extra terrorist propaganda likely, Control Risks Group Limited (‘the Company’) possible bomb attacks. endeavours to ensure the accuracy of all information supplied. Advice and opinions given represent the best judgement of the 3 Aug (approximate date) – Germany: Extremist ‘Chaos’ Day (Hanover); riots, Company but, subject to section 2 (1) Unfair clashes with police possible. Contract Terms Act 1977, the Company shall in no case be liable for any claims, or special, incidental or consequential damages, whether 14 Aug – Pakistan: Independence Day; anti-government groups may seek to caused by the Company’s negligence (or that launch a terrorist attack. of any member of its staff) or in any other way. Copyright: © Control Risks Group Limited 2008. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part 19-21 Aug – Russia: Anniversary of attempted communist coup (1991); prohibited without the prior consent of the Company. demonstrations likely in the capital Moscow.

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