AUGUST 2008 Table of contents Transnational terrorism 2 Profi le: Insecurity in Chad 3 Worldwide terrorist activity 4 Africa Americas Asia Europe Middle East and North Africa In-depth 8 Coming up 9 Three assailants were killed in an attack on the US consulate in Istanbul TURKEY Interior Minister Besir Atalay on 10 July said that four people had been detained in connection with a shooting incident outside the US consulate in Istanbul on 9 July, while the driver of the vehicle used by the attackers was arrested and his car seized. Three police offi cers and three of the attackers were killed in the incident. Although no group has yet claimed responsibility, police are believed to For more information about Hiscox or Control Risks, please contact: suspect that al-Qaida or al-Qaida-related groups were behind the shootings. However, while Islamist extremists are currently the most likely suspects, Stephen Ashwell the attack appears to have been poorly planned and unprofessional and Tel: 020 7448 6725 does not seem to be indicative of the emergence of a sophisticated Islamist 1 Great St Helen’s, London EC3A 6HX extremist threat in Turkey. The attackers did not succeed in entering the [email protected] consulate, which is heavily fortifi ed, and were all reportedly killed by one www.hiscox.com police offi cer after they had taken the other offi cers by surprise, suggesting a lack of training and planning on their part. In addition, despite initial reports Peter Simpson that the attackers were armed with machine guns, they appear to have in Tel: 020 7970 2373 Cottons Centre, Cottons Lane, fact been using pistols and a shotgun, which are easily available in Turkey, London SE1 2QG suggesting a lack of access to more sophisticated weapons or technology. [email protected] www.control-risks.com Prepared by for Note: Hiscox Syndicates and Control Risks request that recipients do not forward the contents outside the distribution list. Any breach of this will lead to removal from the distribution list. Transnational groups and Islamist extremism SAUDI ARABIA ARRESTS The Interior Ministry on 25 June announced that it had arrested 701 suspected Islamist extremists since the beginning of the year but that 181 had been released because of a lack of evidence. The ministry said that it was still holding 520 militants and that many had entered the kingdom from Africa or Asia on the pretext of performing the Hajj or Umra pilgrimages at the holy sites in Mecca. The statement added that the security forces had intercepted one particular cell near an oil-export facility near the Red Sea port of Yanbu and broken up an African cell planning an attack in Eastern Province; an arms cache was reportedly recovered in the latter incident. Meanwhile, an unidentifi ed security offi cial informed the local press that al-Qaida second-in- command Ayman al-Zawahiri had sent a letter to one cell’s leader instructing him to collect funds in preparation for the arrival of fi ghters from Iraq, Afghanistan and North Africa. Although the announcement would appear to confi rm that extremist groups remain active in the kingdom, its tenor and content suggest that it was aimed primarily at persuading Saudi security forces claim to have arrested 701 suspected the international community and foreign businesses extremists since the beginning of the year that the government remains committed to combating had also been detained for questioning. One of the nine main extremism. Importantly, the announcement differed from suspects was a Singaporean national who had reportedly met previous statements in that it highlighted the role of foreign with Osama bin Laden several times. Police reports claim that extremist cells, in particular African and Asian ‘rings’, and the alleged terrorists had initially planned to target Western attributed several undisclosed but thwarted plots to them. and foreign interests in Sumatra, but that they had changed The focus on foreign and non-Arab extremists appears to their intentions prior to their arrests. Reports also claim that represent an attempt to persuade the Saudi population several of the suspects have ties with bomb-maker Noordin and foreign businesses that while Arab extremists may Top, a member of the regional Islamist Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) orchestrate attacks from outside the country, foreign network, which in the past has had close links with al-Qaida. extremists will be responsible for implementing them, especially against the oil industry and the security forces. JORDAN SHOOTING ATTACK INDONESIA COUNTER-TERRORISM OPERATION A gunman late on 16 July opened fi re on a bus carrying members of a Lebanese orchestra at the Roman Local media on 3 July reported that Indonesia’s elite counter- Amphitheatre near the central al-Hashimiyah Square in terrorism police had arrested nine suspects and seized 22 the capital Amman, injuring four Lebanese nationals and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in an operation in South an Arab-Israeli tourist, as well as their Jordanian driver. Sumatra. The latest arrests and bomb seizures – of devices Although Information Minister Nasser Judeh played down reportedly comprising bullets and other fragmentary material speculation that the incident was politically motivated, – highlight the increased effectiveness of national intelligence stating that the attack was of a criminal nature, the attacker is and surveillance capabilities. They also illustrate that, despite likely to have been motivated by extremism, underlining the the fact that no terrorist attacks have taken place in Indonesia latent risk posed by small-scale and spontaneous extremist since 2005, the police and security services have maintained attacks in Jordan. He is thought to have been an 18-year- a high level of vigilance and continue to expand their capacity. old Palestinian who may have mistakenly believed that the Lebanese orchestra members were from Israel. The gunman National police spokesman Abu Bakar Nataprawira reported shot himself and reportedly remains in a critical condition. that, in addition to the nine suspects arrested in relation to the IED cache, an undisclosed number of other individuals Prepared by for 2 Note: Hiscox Syndicates and Control Risks request that recipients do not forward the contents outside the distribution list. Any breach of this will lead to removal from the distribution list. Profi le: Continued insecurity in Chad NEW REBEL OFFENSIVE Ali Gadaye, spokesman for the rebel National Alliance, announced in late June that his group was ready for talks with the government after government forces reportedly engaged the rebels in a decisive battle at Am Zoer (50 miles (80km) north-east of the eastern city of Abeché) and claimed to have killed up to 160 rebels. The rebels had previously launched a series of attacks near the restive border region with Sudan, and threatened to move towards the capital Ndjamena to overthrow the government. Although the rebels claim that only 27 of their number were killed at Am Zoer, the subsequent lull in fi ghting and the National Alliance’s lack of success in advancing towards Ndjamena point to a weakening of the rebel campaign. While the proclaimed government defeat of the rebels is likely to strengthen President Idriss Déby’s position in the short term, rising international pressure in the aftermath of a rebel attack on Ndjamena in February, combined with the threat of further rebel advances, could lead to some concessions on Déby’s part. However, the president’s lack of commitment to reform and the establishment of a genuine consensus government means that a peaceful resolution of the rebels’ demands for A street in the capital Ndajema following fi ghting between greater inclusion in government is unlikely in the short term. government forces and rebels in February government frequently cross the border into Chad, which BACKGROUND Darfur rebel movements use as a rear base. The joint African Union-United Nations Mission in Darfur (UNAMID), which The rebellion has its roots in the confl ict in the western Darfur when fully deployed is expected to comprise a total of 26,000 region of neighbouring Sudan. The east of the country was peacekeepers, has begun to deploy since early 2008, but initially destabilised by an infl ux of refugees from the Darfur is likely to face severe obstacles to its effective operation. confl ict, though the rebels have continued to attract a number of deserters from the national army. Rebel activity has spread OUTLOOK from the east to central areas and in April 2006 and February briefl y to Ndjamena, posing signifi cant security risks. The deployment of a new 3,000-strong EU peacekeeping force earlier this year to the volatile border region between The Darfur confl ict, which emerged in 2003, was fuelled Chad, the Central African Republic (CAR) and Darfur has by the economic and political marginalisation of the local the potential to stabilise the situation. However, in the short population by the Sudanese government, as well as term it is likely to push rebel unrest further into the interior. tensions between ethnic and tribal communities over access Meanwhile, although the activities of southern militias have to and legal control of land. These combined to provoke an been limited by repressive crackdowns, ethnic tensions uprising by two insurgent groups. Heavy fi ghting during the between groups based in the southern oil-producing region fi rst two years of the confl ict caused large-scale population could resurface if revenues are not equitably distributed. displacement because of the government’s initial counter- insurgency strategy, which was characterised by aerial While another rebel advance on Ndjamena cannot be ruled bombardment and attacks on rebel groups and civilian out, a lull in fi ghting in the east and the failure of the rebels to populations by tribal militias allied with the government.