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The Future of the Canadian Oil Sands

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The Future of the Canadian Oil Sands February 2016 The Future of the Canadian Oil Sands Growth potential of a unique resource amidst regulation, egress, cost, and price uncertainty OIES PAPER: WPM 64 J. Peter Findlay The contents of this paper are the authors’ sole responsibility. They do not necessarily represent the views of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its members. Copyright © 2016 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (Registered Charity, No. 286084) This publication may be reproduced in part for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgment of the source is made. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. ISBN 978-1-78467-051-1 February 2016 – The Future of the Canadian Oil Sands: Growth potential of a unique resource 1 amidst regulation, egress, cost, and price uncertainty Acknowledgements I would like to thank Bassam Fattouh for suggesting that I write on such a broad and interesting topic and for supporting the research when the page count went beyond what was originally planned. I am also grateful to Robert Skinner, Executive Fellow at the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy and a former director of this institute, for his help in providing initial context for the research. Jackie Forrest, Vice President of Research at ARC Financial, and Matthew Innes, of Evolution Management Solutions, both also based in Calgary, were of great help in reviewing the research through economic and technical lenses, respectively. Most importantly, I owe much gratitude to my wife Stephanie for her patience and support while I worked through the research. Peter Findlay Calgary, January 2016 February 2016 – The Future of the Canadian Oil Sands: Growth potential of a unique resource amidst regulation, egress, cost, and price uncertainty 2 Glossary / Acronyms AECO Alberta Electric Company; also used as the index for natural gas prices in Alberta AOSP Alberta Oil Sands Project – a joint venture between Shell, Chevron, & Marathon AOSTRA Alberta Oil Sands Technology and Research Authority (now Alberta Innovates) API American Petroleum Institute – API gravity describes the heaviness of a crude BC British Columbia (the Canadian province of) Brownfield A new project instalment that is an expansion or overhaul of a past installation CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate CAPP Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers CCEMC Climate Change and Emissions Management Corporation CCS Carbon Capture and Storage CERI Canadian Energy Research Institute CHOPS Cold Heavy Oil Production with Sand COGD Combustion Overhead Gravity Drainage CNRL Canadian Natural Resources Limited CSR Corporate Social Responsibility CSS Cyclic Steam Stimulation DILBIT Diluted Bitumen Dilbit A mixture of two streams of crude oil: approximately 70–75% bitumen and 25–30% condensate EOR Enhanced Oil Recovery EORI Energy Return on Investment ESP Electronical submersible pumps ET-DSP Electro-Thermal Dynamic Stripping Process ETF Exchange Traded Fund: Similar to a mutual fund, but with minimal management oversight; ETFs attempt to average the returns of a particular market or industry FOB Freight on Board GCOS Great Canadian Oil Sands Company (now called Suncor Energy) GCOS Great Canadian Oil Sands GHG Greenhouse Gases Greenfield A new project instalment that is built in a new area, rather than an expansion or rebuild of a past installation IEA International Energy Agency In-situ Separating and producing bitumen from oil sands in-place rather than extracting the oil sands and removing the bitumen afterwards as is done in the mining technique February 2016 – The Future of the Canadian Oil Sands: Growth potential of a unique resource amidst regulation, egress, cost, and price uncertainty 3 LNG Liquefied Natural Gas LTO Light Tight Oil (oil produced from mature shale geology); also called ‘shale oil’ (not ‘oil shale’, which describes a different geology) LWD Logging while drilling enables drillers to see wireline-quality formation measurements during drilling from the help of well logging tools attached to the bottom-hole assembly Mining In this research, mining refers to the process of surface mining of oil sands ore, then separating out the bitumen through a number of process steps (see Appendix: Oil sands primer) NDP New Democratic Party: A political party that exists at both provincial and federal levels in Canada and is traditionally the more left-wing of the major parties. In 2015 it was elected to a majority government for the first time in Alberta. It has never been the governing party of Canada. NEB National Energy Board NOC National Oil Company OBv Volume of Overburden Removed OSv Volume of Oil Sands Mined PM Particulate Matter R&D Research and Development SAGD Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage SCO Synthetic Crude Oil SGER Specified Gas Emitters Regulation: Government of Alberta regulation to reduce emissions from oil sands producers and other large industrial emitters SOR Steam-to-Oil Ratio Synbit A mixture of two streams of crude oil: approximately 50% bitumen and 50% Synthetic Crude Oil (SCO) TAGD Thermal Assisted Gravity Drainage TAN Total Acid Number THAI Toe-to-Heel Air Injection TSX Toronto Stock Exchange TV:BIP Ratio that describes the total volume of oil sands removed versus the amount of bitumen in-place for that volume Upgrader Processes oil sands produced bitumen into a lighter Synthetic Crude Oil (SCO) that can be more easily processed downstream by traditional refineries USGC United States Gulf of Mexico Coast VOC Volatile Organic Compounds WCSB Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin – the large hydrocarbon-rich basin between the Rocky Mountains and Canadian Shield, touching parts of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba February 2016 – The Future of the Canadian Oil Sands: Growth potential of a unique resource amidst regulation, egress, cost, and price uncertainty 4 Preface This research was conceived with two central objectives: first, to help a global audience comprehend the uniqueness of the massive hydrocarbon resource that is Canada’s oil sands. Second, and more importantly, the paper aims to provide insight into which economic factors will drive and constrain oil sands growth in the near term (until 2025) and long term (beyond 2025). As with all major energy sources, there is undeniable uncertainty on both the supply and demand sides of the oil sands equation. This work attempts to provide perspective on these uncertain factors driving the production growth outlook, with quantitative insights where possible. Though the energy future is indeed difficult to predict, it behoves energy industry leaders, government planners, environmental activists, analysts, and investors alike to recognize the environmental and economic fundamentals underlying Canada’s oil sands and how they impact the global energy supply. With these goals in mind, the paper is separated into five sections: Section 1 highlights the environmental (including climate), political, reputational, and regulatory issues surrounding oil sands production. Section 2 addresses market access issues of Western Canadian crude oil that are constraining production growth from the oil sands. Section 3 tackles the cost of oil sands production, with a focus on inflation and production technology. Section 4 discusses the economic attractiveness for investors of the oil sands in the near and long term and summarizes what role the resource could play in future global supply. The Appendix provides a detailed oil sands primer as a recommended pre-read for those not closely familiar with Canadian oil sands history, production processes, or current production and marketing volumes. The geological and petrophysical nature of almost 2 trillion barrels of bitumen trapped amid sand makes the resource different to almost any other large producing basin in the world – this section highlights some of the more critical, unique elements. February 2016 – The Future of the Canadian Oil Sands: Growth potential of a unique resource amidst regulation, egress, cost, and price uncertainty 5 Contents Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................................. 2 Glossary / Acronyms ............................................................................................................................ 3 Preface ................................................................................................................................................... 5 Contents ................................................................................................................................................. 6 Figures ................................................................................................................................................... 7 Tables ..................................................................................................................................................... 7 Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................. 8 1 Perception, regulation, and a ‘social licence to operate’ .......................................................... 10 1.1 How Canada and the world view Alberta’s oil sands .............................................................. 10 1.2 Environmental impact of the oil sands
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