Editors Niculae IANCU Irena CHIRU INTELLIGENCE IN THE KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY st Proceedings of the XXI International Conference Bucharest – 2016 Intelligence in the Knowledge Society Descrierea CIP a Bibliotecii Naţionale a României Intelligence in the Knowledge Society / editors: Niculae Iancu, Irena Dumitru. - Bucureşti : Editura Academiei Naţionale de Informaţii „Mihai Viteazul”, 2014 Bibliogr. ISSN I. Ştefan, Teodoru (ed.) II. Dumitru, Irena (ed.) 316.6 Editura Academiei Naţionale de Informaţii „Mihai Viteazul”…… Telefon: 0377720.000/1172 sau 1186 Fax: 0377721.134; 0377721.125 COLECTIVUL DE REDACŢIE Redactor şef: Valentin NICULA Redactori: Karin MEGHEŞAN Cristina IVAN Valentin STOIAN Alexandra POPESCU Daniela BACHEŞ Teodora DOBRE Tehnoredactare: Andrei VLĂDESCU Alina Rodica PETRA Coperta: Valentin NICULA Bun de tipar:05.10.2016 Apărut: octombrie 2016 Tipărit sub comanda nr. 1063.453/06.10.2016 © Editura Academiei Naţionale de Informaţii „Mihai Viteazul” Bucureşti, 2016 ISSN 2392 – 7542/ 2 IKS 2012 PROCEEDINGS of the XXIst International Conference INTELLIGENCE IN THE KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTELLIGENCE THROUGH ANALYTIC LENSES: DIACHRONIC VS. SYNCHRONIC PERSPECTIVES Julian RICHARDS Reflections on contemporary intelligence studies.. 9 Michael ANDREGG Why fight? An essay on the morality of wars: when to start them, how to fight them, and when not to...... 21 Florian COLDEA The intelligent nexus Security, development and intelligence cooperation in the Black Sea Area....... 41 Antonia COLIBĂŞANU New technologies and immutable geopolitical constraints. Challenges for the competitive intelligence model– an essay –............................... 47 Giorgi LILUASHVILI The protection of personal data and intelligence needs. An impossible equilibrium?......................... 59 Eyal PASCOVICH Writing Israel's intelligence history: formal initiatives, subjective memoirs and narratives in dispute....................................................................... 67 Loredana IVAN, National economic competitiveness through Adrian MORARU economic intelligence............................................... 81 Maria-Daniela BUNOIU, Spotting trouble in migration flows: an indicator- Iuliana UDROIU based early warning model...................................... 95 Costinel ANUȚA Redesigning risk analysis. Principles for a systemic approach.................................................................... 105 Ioan Codruț Soviet Russia – a major preoccupation of the LUCINESCU Romanian Intelligence Services during the early years of the interwar period (1918–1924)............... 115 Bogdan Alexandru Intelligence cooperation and sharing advantages. TEODOR, The case of the interwar Romanian Secret Service Mihaela TEODOR (SSI)........................................................................... 123 IKS 2015 3 Intelligence in the Knowledge Society (IN)SECURITY PRODUCTION: COUNTERING CONFLICT, RADICALIZATION & VIOLENCE Davide BARBIERI, Violent extremists risk assessment Elaine PRESSMAN A bayesian framework.............................................. 135 Ana BIRCHALL Approaching emerging security challenges within the EU framework. New terrorist threats and hybrid warfare inside the european security context....................................................................... 143 Mihai SANDU Turmoil in pursuit of modernity and democracy. Major processes and population movements in the Greater Middle East throughout the arab spring and winter................................................................. 157 Florin BUȘTIUC Insiders – A need-to-know for managers and security personnel..................................................... 171 Bogdan BAZGĂ Analysis of the impact of russian embargo on the romanian food security............................................. 183 Lucian IVAN An analysis on illegal migration – trends, perspectives and appropriate response................... 201 Alba Iulia Catrinel POPESCU, Tiberiu TANASE Failed state Libya - european security implications..... 217 Alba Iulia Catrinel POPESCU The Islamic State versus al Qa'ida - Who will win?... 231 Serghei VELENCIUC Network-based security model. Case study: Ukraine and separatist regions................................ 245 4 IKS 2015 Foreword The Intelligence in the Knowledge Society International Conference (IKS), organized annually in Bucharest, under the aegis of the “Mihai Viteazul” National Intelligence Academy, has become the most important gathering in Central and Eastern Europe for scholars and practitioners in the field of intelligence and security studies. The conference is the result of a long term effort to determine an enhanced level of understanding and expertise on the most important security challenges, while encouraging the development of an academic perspective on intelligence. Its main goal has always been twofold. On the one hand, through the IKS, we wish to contribute to the developing of a transnational network of scholars, practitioners and experts, coming from both the private and the governmental sector. On the other hand, the conference is designed to facilitate the transfer of knowledge and technology from academia to practitioners and, as one can observe, the heterogeneous nature of the participants that have made us the honor of putting forward their perspectives during the 2015 edition of the event, proves this mission has been achieved. The 21st edition of the Conference approached a broad range of concepts and formats, including lectures by acknowledged experts, open debate sessions on intelligence and security topics as well as interactive workshops. The debates focused mainly on how the security environment has changed its pace, generating new threats. The 21st century has had a profound impact on both society at large and on intelligence organizations. The technological advancement has changed the parameters within which modern warfare is being conducted in ways beyond anything known at the end of the previous century. The emergence of new actors, social movements conducted in the online environment, the subtle shifts of power and influence within a society IKS 2015 5 Intelligence in the Knowledge Society have reshaped the map of the international system, placing security organizations under the imperious need to adapt. The participants debated the best ways for organizations responsible with ensuring national security to change, respond and adapt in order to ensure their survival and optimize their strategies for prevention and mitigation of security risks. As a revolution or transformation leading to a more flexible and adaptive intelligence organization requires a thorough understanding of the roots of competitiveness in intelligence, the participants also discussed the process of organizational learning, from the perspective of evolutionary tendencies, policies implemented, good practices and the degree of innovation necessary for a successful intelligence organization. The volume reunites the perspectives of both the academia and the private sector on the uncertainty that dominates the security environment, and is dedicated to intelligence practitioners, as well as to intelligence stakeholders: scholars and researchers, decision-makers, representatives of private and non-governmental organizations, and to all citizens that might be interested in knowing more about the topics related to intelligence and security studies. The editors 6 IKS 2015 Intelligence through Analytic Lenses: Diachronic vs. Synchronic Perspectives INTELLIGENCE THROUGH ANALYTIC LENSES: DIACHRONIC VS. SYNCHRONIC PERSPECTIVES IKS 2015 7 Intelligence in the Knowledge Society 8 IKS 2015 Intelligence through Analytic Lenses: Diachronic vs. Synchronic Perspectives REFLECTIONS ON CONTEMPORARY INTELLIGENCE STUDIES Julian RICHARDS* Abstract In 1991, the University of Toronto’s History Department held a conference about the history of the study of espionage. The conference revealed eight key themes of analysis in the discipline. Twenty-five years later, an examination of the Intelligence Studies Section in the International Studies Association (ISA) annual convention can throw some interesting light on how and why the subject may have changed. The resulting picture shows a remarkable similarity with the main project areas identified in 1991, but with a preponderance of discussions focusing on the two areas of intelligence machinery in government; and intelligence tradecraft issues. This paper argues that the subject area can further develop by becoming more interdisciplinary, and by continuing its trend of academic diversification beyond the traditional Anglo-Saxon focus. Keywords: intelligence studies, professionalisation, training, education, interdisciplinarity. Introduction In the immediate post-Cold War period, when many in the intelligence world were scratching their heads and contemplating what the future security and intelligence picture would hold, many in the academic field of Intelligence Studies were feeling similarly reflective about the subject area. Indeed, in November 1991 (just weeks before, as it transpired, the formal dissolution of the Soviet Union) the History department of the University of Toronto had decided to make a discussion about the history of intelligence the subject of a centennial event celebrating the department’s founding at the end of the nineteenth century1. As Wesley Wark noted of the * University of Buckingham, UK IKS 2015 9 Intelligence in the Knowledge Society time, the event marked an interesting