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Home , Gjorge Ivanov, Lake Prespa, Prespa (medieval town), Prespa agreement, Talat Xhaferi, Trade unions in Greece

Maria Satanakis

FOKUS | 6/2018

Greece and the Former Yugoslav Republic of : The Agreement. What comes next?

The year 2018 turned out to be decisive that their neighbors committed a kind of in office and back then, the name dispute for the intractable name dispute between cultural theft by using symbols the with the Republic of Macedonia was not the Former Yugoslav Republic of Mace- recognize as their own – the most impor- considered a priority of the government, donia and its southern neighbor, . tant one being King . therefore it was not on the daily political Due to this ongoing dispute - the salience In 1994, when the confrontational rhetoric agenda. But within a swift period of time, of which is not fully comprehensible for reached a critical point, the Greek govern- this was about to change. The willingness external observers - the relations between ment (under prime minister Andreas Pa- of to reach a compromise solution the two neighbors have been strained for pandreou) even imposed a trade embargo on the name dispute with led to a decades, with Greece constantly blocking against FYROM. The state’s actions and serious internal disagreement and visible Skopje’s European integration process and policies were perceived to be a real threat tensions with its coalition partner ANEL the latter repeatedly provoking Greece, towards Greece and therefore the center- (). The nationalist which only added more tension to the left government took unilateral measures rightwing party strongly opposes any situation. However, surprisingly in 2018, against its neighbor aimed at preventing plans for a compromise on that matter. the new prime minister of the Republic the import of products from the Republic Particularly, the defense minister Panagio- of Macedonia, announced of Macedonia.1 After intense pressure from tis Kammenos announced that he will not that his country was finally ready to make the European Commission, which even support any agreement with the neigh- amends with Greece and add a geographi­ brought the case to the European Court boring Balkan , which will allow it cal qualifier to their name, leading to of Justice, and mediation efforts from the to continue using the name Macedonia, a remarkable shift in the deadlocked United , the 19-month embargo unless it is approved by the Greek people negotiations. On 17 June 2018, the two was finally lifted. Especially in Greece’s through a referendum or general elections. neighbors turned over a new page in their second largest city of (the Usually, the attitude of the public opini- relationship, which will hopefully put an capital of the northern region of Greek on towards the name dispute in Greece end to the hostilities of the past: the for- Macedonia), which in ancient times played appears to be first and foremost highly eign ministers of both countries signed the an important role in King Alexander the emotional, but also full of paradoxes. , which would officially Great‘s colossal empire and therefore is a The name issue is considered a matter of rename Greece’s neighbor into Republic source of immense pride for modern-day greatest national importance that should of after being subject to Greeks, a so-called ‘anti-FYROM’ sentiment be resolved as soon as possible because a referendum in Skopje no later than in was always clearly visible – a stance that so any delay could harm Greek interests by autumn 2018. far has not changed. When Thessaloniki’s leading to FYROM being internationally liberal mayor, Yiannis Boutaris, used the recognized as Macedonia. At the same Historical Review name Macedonia in his visit to Skopje in time, there is total unwillingness to reach November last year, he was immediately any kind of compromise since Greece Back in 1991, following the collapse of branded as a traitor on Greek social media demands the exclusive right to the name , the Republic of Macedonia – a and was also discredited for suggesting Macedonia. This more or less rigid attitude small, landlocked country in the that Thessaloniki’s airport could drop the of Greece in the past years as well as the with approximately two million inhabi- name Macedonia.2 All these developments political exploitation of the matter has tants - declared its independence and underline the unchanged seriousness of proven to fuel nationalistic tendencies joined the (UN) in 1993 the name dispute. in the country – a characteristic example with the provisional name “The Former Yu- being ’ veto regarding the Republic goslav Republic of Macedonia” (also abbre­ Greece of Macedonia’s accession to NATO in 2008. viated as FYROM). Its neighbor Greece strongly objected to the use of the one- Merely two years ago, Greece was slowly The Former Yugoslav Republic of Mace- word name ‘Macedonia’, arguing that it im- starting to recover from the political up­ donia plied an ill-disguised territorial aspiration heavals of the recent past where two elec- against a northern Greek province of the tions (January and September 2015) and Looking back, the situation in the Republic same name. Skopje countered the claim by one very controversial referendum (July of Macedonia was different as well. In arguing that the country has been known 2015) took place. Prime minister Alexis the decade between 2006 and 2016, the as Macedonia for a long time but up until Tsipras and his leftwing SYRIZA party had government of prime minister Nikola this day, many Greek citizens believe just completed a very turbulent first year Gruevski and his Internal Macedonian

1 The Prespa Agreement. What comes next?

FOKUS | 6/2018

Revolutionary Organization – Democra- as by trying to improve the tense relations Commission adopted the annual Action tic Party for Macedonian National Unity with its other neighbor, Greece in the spirit Program for the country, which would (VMRO-DPMNE) transformed the country of a con­structive dialogue. release €72.3 million for democracy and to an authoritarian state and was pursuing government initiatives.7 The EU has also a clearly nationalistic agenda, while at the The EU’s Western Balkan Strategy identified the key priorities in the country same time having to deal with a variety being among others the prevention of ex- of political scandals such as corruption, a The six partner countries of the Western tremism and radicalization, better border biased judiciary system and degradation Balkans include , Bosnia Herzego­ management, the fight against corruption in the freedom of the press. The lack of vina, , , and the and the development of electronic ser­ support from the civil society as well as Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, vices for the citizens. from the international community was which holds the status of an EU candidate the inevitable result. The government was country since December 2005. The Euro- In February 2018, the Commission also mostly criticized for its policy of so-called pean Union is the most important donor adopted a new strategy for ‘a credible ‘antiquisation’- the attempt to claim and investor in the region as well as the enlargement perspective for and enhanced ancient historic symbols and figures such primary political partner of the Western EU engagement with the Western Balkans’. 8 as Phillip II and King Alexander the Great Balkans, and thus remains firmly commit- Although it was stated that all six countries as its own, an action that constantly fueled ted to welcome all six of them in ‘the club’, still need to tackle crucial reforms – some the tensions with its southern neighbor once the necessary reforms are satisfyingly to a bigger extent than others – the stra- Greece. In April 2017, the country quickly met. Already back in June 2003, at the EU- tegy confirms that their European future made negative headlines due to an angry Western Balkans Summit in Thessaloniki, remains unquestioned and continues to mob of VMRO-supporters storming the the EU pledged that all Western Balkan be in the interest of both the EU and the parliament in Skopje in reaction to the countries could one day become member Western Balkans. This was reaffirmed once election of (of Albanian states. In the meantime, for Serbia and more during the EU-Western Balkans Sum- descent) as the new speaker, who was Montenegro (which joined NATO as its mit held in Sofia, on 17 May 2018, supported by the Social Democrats and 29th member in June 2017) accession talks which resulted in the Sofia Declaration. the parties representing the country’s with have already been launched The EU appeared determined to further big ethnic Albanian minority, comprising in 2014 and 2012 respectively – with strengthen its support to the region‘s poli- about one-quarter of the population.3 A the prospect of joining the EU as early tical, economic, and social transformation. fight broke out, leaving many MPs, journa- as 2025. Despite the initial resistance of Therefore, by setting the date for the start lists and police officers injured. Fortuna- France and the Netherlands, who strongly of membership talks with Albania and the tely, just one month later under the new pledged for further consolidation of the Republic of Macedonia for next year, the prime minister, Zoran Zaev, and his Social crisis-shaken EU before new members are remaining 27 EU member states signalized Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM), welcomed, the official start of concrete their unbroken willingness to welcome the situation changed for the better. Ini- membership talks with the Republic of Balkan nations and to politically and eco- tially, President refused for Macedonia and its western neighbor nomically stabilize the region. weeks to give Zaev the mandate to form a Albania has been scheduled for June 2019. government, although he had a majority Until then, Skopje has committed itself to The Prespa Agreement in parliament, but after much interna­ continue working on the implementation tional pressure the new government finally of the Prespa Agreement with Greece and The 17th of June 2018 turned out to be took up its work. Having the support of a finalizing reforms - with a special focus on a historic day for a region trapped in the respectable amount of people in his coun- tackling corruption, strengthening mino- politics of animosity for almost thirty try, prime minister Zaev and his reform- rity rights, security services, intelligence years. The prime ministers of Greece and oriented coalition government (including and public administration.6 For Brussels, the Republic of Macedonia, the Albanian party for Democratic Union an increased cooperation between Greece and Zoran Zaev as well as the EU’s High for Integration, DUI) followed a strong pro- and its Balkan neighbors in general, is be- Representative for Foreign Affairs and western strategy aimed at strengthening lieved to reinforce Western liberal politics Security Policy, and EU democracy and the rule of law and decla- in the Balkans and thwart aspirations by Commissioner for neighborhood policy red that EU and NATO accession would countries like or Turkey for a pos­ and enlargement negotiations, Johannes be the government’s top foreign policy sible dominance in the region. Hahn, were present when the two foreign priority for the coming years.4 Therefore, ministers, and Nikola Dimit- the country clearly committed itself to a After the various turbulences of the past rov, signed the agreement on the banks of European path, first and foremost by sig- years, the Former Yugoslav Republic of , where the borders between ning a bilateral ‘Treaty on Friendship, Good Macedonia now serves as a positive ex- Greece, Albania and the Republic of Mace- Neighborliness and Cooperation’ with its ample for the entire region of the Western donia meet. , the UN Spe- neighbor Bulgaria in August 20175, as well Balkans. At the end of 2017, the European cial Representative for the naming dispute

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between the two countries, also attended continued to pose a serious threat to the countries. Therefore, the situation as a the signing ceremony and praised both deal. Polls conducted in Greece showed whole can only be improved if there is an sides for their vision and political courage9, that a majority of people (68.3%) are undeniable membership which eventually proved able to produce strong­ly against the agreement.11 This sig- perspective. The decision to open the ne- fruitful results. Once ratified in both coun- nalizes that the consequences in the after­ gotiation talks in summer 2019 gives the tries, this agreement will officially rename math of the agreement could cost SYRIZA EU the necessary credibility in the region Greece’s neighbor into Republic of North the political support. As a result, the party and serves as a conformation for all Balkan Macedonia. Moreover, both parties have keeps on losing its popularity and the countries that their reform efforts are committed themselves to being close part- main opposition party, finally bearing fruit. Additionally, European ners and allies from now on, which would (ND), is celebrating a strong comeback by countries like Austria, which currently mean that Greece will put an end to its constantly increasing its lead over SYRIZA. holds the EU-Presidency in the second half ‘policy of blocking’ and no longer veto any Tens of thousands of people demons- of 2018, need to use their diplomatic and application by the Republic of Macedonia trated in all parts of Greece – with the mediating skills to their fullest extent and in international, multilateral and regional northern province of Makedonia, where concentrate their efforts on breathing life organizations and institutions. Skopje in the issue is even more sensitive, suppo- back into the Western Balkan enlargement turn, will have to hold a referendum and sedly witnessing around 100.000 protes- process. This goes especially for Austria make many constitutional amendments ters – against any solution that would since its foreign policy always showed a before the Greek parliament ratifies the include the term Macedonia and the special interest in the Balkans due to the Agreement.10 recognition of a ‘’, tradition of strong cultural, economic and calling the Agree­ment a national be­trayal political relations. Some gestures of good faith are already and chanting anti-government slogans. visible and are expected to advocate the Nevertheless, the question of whether Concluding remarks mutual attempt to change the negative politicians like the Greek defense minister experiences of the past – the most promi- Kammenos would indeed be prepared The Balkan countries have suffered from nent example being the decision of the Re- to risk political turmoil at such a critical nationalist sentiments and political insta- public of Macedonia under the leadership moment for Greece, which is set to exit its bility for a very long time and therefore of prime minister Zaev at the beginning third international bailout in August 2018, it would be advisable for the European of 2018, to launch confidence building remains to be answered. At the same time, Union to time and again clearly signal that measures by declaring its willingness to re- people in Skopje also went on the streets its door remains open for new members to name the country’s main airport to Skopje to protest against the deal while high- join. Brussels needs to continue to actively International Airport and the main highway ranking politicians like President Ivanov engage in this region and strongly support to Friendship highway – leaving out “Alex- also strongly refused to support the Prespa the countries in their commitment to good ander the Great” in both names. Agreement - a fact which was expected to neighborly relations and deepening of complicate the situation even more. But regional understanding, through mutu- All in all, the Prespa Agreement paves the despite all the hostile rhetoric and the pro- al respect and cooperation. A credible way for the Former Yugoslav Republic of tests, the agreement successfully overca- enlargement policy is a key component of Macedonia to begin official EU accession me a first hurdle by securing the approval the EU‘s Global Strategy for Foreign and talks and also opened the door for the of the parliament for a second time after a Security Policy but further than that, it is country to join the Transatlantic Alliance. one-time veto by President Ivanov. in the interest of the whole of Europe for During the last NATO Summit in Brussels the Western Balkans to become more de- on 11-12 July 2018, the government in As for the European Union, it undoubtedly mocratic, stable and firmly anchored in the Skopje was officially invited to begin needs to be even more present in the area rule of law. It is time to finally move away accession talks. by highlighting its unequivocal interest in from the past and towards a common the Western Balkans in order to prevent European future. Remaining Challenges the development of a political vacuum there. The violence in the Parliament of Despite the various differences and Although the Greek government of prime Skopje in late April 2017 was a serious challenges, a solution to the name dispute minister Tsipras survived a no-confidence warning about the fragile stability of the between Greece and its Balkan neighbor vote in Parliament on the 16th of June country without a strong presence of the may be closer than it has ever been. For 2018, following the reached agreement EU that should always be keeping a close the Republic of Macedonia, the fight for with Skopje, it was anything but easy to eye on regional developments. The Repu- an internationally acceptable solution get to this point. Over the last months, the blic of Macedonia also enjoys strategical holds the key to a better future. Resolving name issue and all the relevant develop- importance because of its location at the name dispute would open the door ments enjoyed wide media coverage on the center of the so-called Balkan route to greater prosperity and stability for both sides, whilst nationalist hardliners taken by many migrants fleeing war-torn the country through membership in the

3 The Prespa Agreement. What comes next?

FOKUS | 6/2018

European Union as well as the accession to 7) EEAS: ‘European Union releases 72.3 EUR million for NATO. Regardless of all the hostile rhetoric supporting the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia’, 18 De- cember 2017, https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquar- by some parts of the population in both ters-homepage/37564/european-union-releases-new-723-eur- countries, the significance of the Prespa million-supporting-former-yugoslav-republic-macedonia_en Agreement and its heavy symbolism is not (accessed 06.08.2018) to be underestimated. It should be inter- 8) EEAS: ‘Western Balkans Strategy: EU sets out clear path for ac- preted as a rare moment of success for the cession’, 6 February 2018, https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/ European Union but also for the Republic headquarters-homepage/39450/western-balkans-strategy-eu- of Macedonia, whose people are despe- sets-out-clear-path-accession_en (accessed 23.07.2018) rate to see their impoverished country 9) Reuters: ‘Macedonia says ready to change its name and end joining the rest of the western world. As row with Greece’, 6 February 2018, https://www.reuters.com/ for Greece, the government’s efforts and article/us-macedonia-greece/macedonia-says-ready-to-change- determination to reach a compromise with its-name-and-end-row-with-greece-idUSKBN1FQ2OY(accessed its neighbor after almost 30 years, can only 24.07.2018) be congratulated and encouraged. 10) The New York Times: ‘Greek Government Survives Vote Over Deal to Rename Macedonia’, 16 June 2018, https://www.nytimes. Although the Prespa Agreement is regard­ com/2018/06/16/world/europe/greek-government-survives- vote-over-deal-to-rename-macedonia.html?action=click&modu ed as the key that could open the door le=RelatedCoverage&pgtype=Article®ion=Footer (accessed to permanent peace and reconciliation in 24.07.2018) this troubled region, one process deserves special attention: changing the hearts 11) ProtoThema: ‘New poll: 68.3% say ‘NO’ to the Tsipras-Zaev agreement’, 17 June 2018, http://en.protothema.gr/new- and mindsets of Greek and Macedonian poll-683-say-no-to-the-tsipras-zaev-agreement/ (accessed citizens alike will be quite difficult due to 30.07.2018) linkages to the ethnic and cultural identity but also national pride, and thus will und- oubtedly take some time. It is therefore particularly important that the Prespa Agreement survives and is continuously supported by both countries in the future.

Sofia Maria Satanakis is Research Fellow at the AIES.

Notes

1) European Commission: Press Release Database, http://europa. eu/rapid/press-release_IP-94-278_en.htm (accessed 01.08.2018)

2) The official name of the airport being Thessaloniki Airport “Makedonia”, see under http://www.hcaa.gr/en/our-airports/ kratikos-aerolimenas-8essalonikhs-makedonia-ka8m

3) BBC News: ‘Macedonian parliament stormed by protesters in Skopje’, 27 April 2017, https://www.bbc.com/news/world- europe-39738865 (accessed 06.08.2018) © Austria Institut für Europa- und Sicherheitspolitik, 2018 4) European Commission: Fact Sheet ‘Key findings of the 2018 Report on the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia’, 17 April Alle Rechte vorbehalten. Nachdruck oder ver­ 2018, http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-18-3405_ gleich­bare Verwendungen von Arbeiten des en.htm (accessed 23.07. 2018) Austria Instituts für Europa- und Sicherheitspolitik (AIES) sind auch in Auszügen nur mit vorheriger 5) Macedonian Information Agency: ‘Macedonia-Bulgaria friend- Genehmigung gestattet. Die im AIES-Fokus ship treaty enters into force’, 14 February 2018, https://www. veröffentlichten Beiträge geben ausschließlich die mia.mk/en/Inside/RenderSingleNews/61/134111268 (accessed Meinung der jeweiligen Autorinnen und Autoren 10.08.2018) wieder. Dr. Langweg 3, 2410 Hainburg/Donau 6) Deutsche Welle: ‘Macedonian PM Zoran Zaev: EU accession Tel. +43 (1) 3583080 talks a historic decision’, 28 June 2018, https://www.dw.com/ E-Mail: [email protected] en/macedonian-pm-zoran-zaev-eu-accession-talks-a-historic- Website: www.aies.at decision/a-44449196 (accessed 03.08.2018) Layout: Medienbüro Meyer

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