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Assessing vulnerability to wildfire of an landscape mosaic of , southwestern .

Authors: · Bertomeu Manuel1 · Corbacho Javier2 · Pulido Fernando1 · Navalpotro Javier2 · Palomo Gonzalo2 · Giménez Juan Carlos1 · Moreno Gerardo1. 1 INDEHESA, Escuela de Ingeniería Forestal y del Medio Natural, Centro Universitario de , Universidad de . Avda. Virgen del Puerto 2, 10600 Plasencia, Cáceres, Spain. 2 MOSAICO-Extremadura, Centro Universitario de Plasencia, Universidad de Extremadura. Avda. Virgen del Puerto 2, 10600 Plasencia, Cáceres, Spain.

Introduction Casares de Wildfire occurrence and extent Nuñomoral Wild res have increasingly become a threat to the Mediterranean mountain during the period 2000-2015: of southern Europe. Extensive with ammable pine species, abandonment of traditional land management practices, and longer Wildfires Descargamaría and more intense droughts due to result in larger and more Casar de

frequent and intense res. Mosaic landscapes consisting of a mix of Torrecilla de los Ángeles 2.298 Gata Cadalso different land cover and use type are considered to be less vulnerable than Acebo San Martón de Trevejo Hernán-Pérez Burnt area (ha.) forests to wild re. Interspersed patches of crops, pastures, and grazed shrubs Santibáñez el Alto

and forests break-up the continuity of hazardous fuels across the landscape, Legend Municipalities 37.500 and provide safer zones from which res can be suppressed ( gures 1 and 2). Fire perimeter

Gata Simbology < 1 has. 1 - 25 has. Mosaico-Extremadura is a project that aims to restore an agroforestry mosaic 25 - 50 has. landscape in Sierra de Gata, a mountainous area in southwestern Spain prone 50 - 100 has. 100 - 200 has. to anthropogenic res. A multidisciplinary team of technicians facilitate 200 - 300 has.a planning and implementation of agricultural and livelihood interventions (e.g., farming; management, resin tapping), training, and negotiation and coordination with local government and forestry authorities. The project rests on the idea that agricultural interventions at strategic locations within forests and at the forest- interface will function as effective, and productive rebreaks. However, whether these interventions will nudge the current landscape towards a more re resilient one remains uncertain.

Objetive To assess the vulnerability to re of the hypothetical landscape mosaic that would result if all interventions proposed by involved in the Mosaico project were implemented.

Methods and materials Study area Sierra de Gata is a mountainous area in southwestern Spain that extends over Figures 1 and 2. Productive firebreaks in a forest landscape: unburnt olive and chestnut surrounded by a Pinus pinaster forest destroyed by fire. Sierra de Gata, Cáceres 150,000 ha, of which 70,000 ha are forests of Pinus Pinaster. It comprises a population of 22,728 in 20 villages. Agricultural production include olive, chestnut and fruit and goat and grazing in an area of 30.000 ha. Results Forests provide timber, resin, NTFPs (mushrooms) and recreation. Altitude index Slope index Very low / Null Low Estimated fire risk of the landscape Low Medium Assessment framework previous to project intervention Medium High High The vulnerability assessment framework (VAF) proposed by Vaillant et al. (2016) Very low / Null is used. VAF’s components, exposure, sensitivity, and resilience, will be Low Medium measured rst in a retrospective assessment of landscape vulnerability, High followed by a predictive, comparative assessment under different scenarios of Very high project success, including the ‘business as usual’ (without project).

GIS analysis includes: Vegetation index Fuel models index 1,27% Low Low 9,72% • Spatial-temporal characterization of the occurrence of res according to the Medium Medium High High 20,27% Muy Bajo/nulo national database (EGIF) of the Ministry of the Environment. 42,51% Bajo Medio Alto • The development of variables dependent on re risk (altitude, slope, Muy Alto vegetation, anthropic elements and fuel models). 26,24% • Reclassi cation of variables according to risk through a range of values. • Map algebra: a combination of the different variables generated with the Map 2. Mosaico project initiatives.

Results

Ladrillar

Ladrillar Table 1. Estimated re risk of the landscape Table 2. Potential impact of project Potential impact of project interventions Casares de las Hurdes Mapa de Riesgo de Incendio en propuestas de Iniciativas Mosaico Fire riskMapa inde Rproposediesgo de Incen dprojectio en prop uareasestas de Iniciativas Mosaico on reducing fire risk previous to project intervention. interventions on reducing re risk. Nuñomoral Nuñomoral Very low / Null Very low / Null

Values Area (has.) Values Area (%) Low Low Caminomorisco Caminomorisco Robledillo de Gata Medium Medium Pinofranqueado Robledillo de Gata La Pesga Very Low 2.073,36 Very Low = Pinofranqueado High La Pesga High

Descargamaría Low 69.246,72 Low + 11,71 Very High Descargamaría Very High Casar de Palomero

Medium 42.741,74 Medium -5,48 Cadalso Torrecilla de los Ángeles Cadalso Torrecilla de los Ángeles

Cadalso High 33.014,81 High -4,54 Gata Cadalso Cadalso Gata Torre de Don Miguel Hernán-Pérez Cadalso Eljas Acebo Hernán-Pérez Eljas Torre de Don Miguel Acebo San Martín de Trevejo Very High 15.828,81 Very High -1,72 Villanueva de la Sierra San Martín de Trevejo Villanueva de la Sierra Santibáñez el Alto

Santibáñez el Alto Valverde del Fresno

Valverde del Fresno Hoyos Villasbuenas de Gata Hoyos Villasbuenas de Gata 0,05% Villamiel 1,27% Villamiel 11,43% Perales del Puerto 8,01% Perales del Puerto 21,76% Gata 15,73% Next steps Gata Muy Bajo/nulo Muy Bajo/nulo Bajo Bajo Medio Medio clip_riesgo_iniciativas 30,22% Alto Cilleros Alto Riesgo de incendio en iniciativas mosaico 54,22% Cilleros Muy Alto Muy Bajo Muy Alto 1. To conduct a retrospective sensitivity assessment Muy Bajo Bajo 20,76% Bajo 36,53% Medio Medio 2. To conduct re simulations and assessments of exposure to wild re, Alto Alto Muy Alto 0 3 6 12 Kilometros sensitivity and resilience of the hypothetical landscape under different Muy Alto 0 3 6 12 Kilometros Ü Map 3. Ü Map 4. project success scenarios and after project completion.

References: Vaillant, et al., 2016, CurrForestryRep, 201–213, DOI 10.1007/s40725-016-0040-1