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All Top Dems Beat Trump As Voters' Economic Outlook

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All Top Dems Beat Trump As Voters' Economic Outlook Mary Snow, Polling Analyst (203) 506-8202 Doug Schwartz, Director (203) 582-5201 FOR RELEASE: AUGUST 28, 2019 ALL TOP DEMS BEAT TRUMP AS VOTERS’ ECONOMIC OUTLOOK DIMS QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; DEM PRIMARY STAYS STABLE WITH BIDEN HOLDING THE LEAD If the 2020 presidential election were held today, 54 percent of registered voters say that they would vote for former Vice President Joe Biden, while only 38 percent would vote for President Trump. Matchups against other top Democrats show: • Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders topping Trump 53 – 39 percent; • Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren ahead of Trump 52 – 40 percent; • California Sen. Kamala Harris beating Trump 51 – 40 percent; • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump’s 40 percent. Looking at all of the matchups, President Trump is stuck between 38 and 40 percent of the vote. These low numbers may partly be explained by a lack of support among white women, a key voting bloc that voted for Trump in the 2016 election. Today, white women go for the Democratic candidate by double digits in every scenario. Though it is a long 14 months until Election Day, Trump’s vulnerability among this important voting group does not bode well for him. “In hypothetical matchups between President Trump and the top five Democratic presidential candidates, one key number is 40,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow. “It’s the ceiling of support for Trump, no matter the candidate. It hovers close to his job approval rating, which has stayed in a tight range since being elected.” Voters say 56 – 38 percent that they disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president, compared to the 54 – 40 percent disapproval he received a month ago. The Economy For the first time since President Trump was elected, more voters say that the national economy is getting worse than getting better, with 37 percent saying it is getting worse, 31 percent saying it is getting better, and 30 percent saying it is staying the same. This compares to a June 11, 2019 poll in which 23 percent of voters said that the national economy is getting worse, 39 percent said it is getting better, and 37 percent said it is staying the same. When asked to rate the state of the nation’s economy, 61 percent of voters say that it is excellent or good, while 37 percent say that it is not so good or poor. These numbers, while still clearly positive on the economy, are the lowest excellent/good economy numbers found by the Quinnipiac University Poll since April 2018. Voters also say that President Trump’s policies are hurting the nation’s economy at 41 percent, while 37 percent say that they are helping, and 20 percent say that his policies make no difference. “As trade tensions with China dominate the headlines, confidence in the economy is slipping,” adds Mary Snow. “The number of people who think the economy is getting worse rose by double digits since June. And roughly 4 in 10 voters blame the President’s policies, saying they are hurting the economy, the highest level since Trump took office.” Trump’s approval for his handling of the economy is split, with 46 percent approving and 49 percent disapproving. On his handling of other issues, the president is decidedly underwater: • 38 – 56 percent approval for his handling of foreign policy; • 38 – 59 percent approval for his handling of immigration issues; • 38 – 54 percent approval for his handling of trade; • 38 – 53 percent approval for his handling of gun policy; • 32 – 62 percent approval for his handling of race relations. In addition, 62 percent of voters say that President Trump is doing more to divide the country as president, while 30 percent say that he is doing more to unite the country – an all-time low. These numbers may help explain why only 36 percent of voters report that they are very or somewhat satisfied with the way things are going in the nation today. The Democratic Primary The race for the 2020 Democratic nomination for president has remained steady, with little to no movement since the last time the Quinnipiac University Poll asked the primary question nationwide in early August. Biden leads the pack with 32 percent of Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic, followed by Warren at 19 percent. Sanders has 15 percent, while Harris gets 7 percent, and Buttigieg gets 5 percent. Entrepreneur Andrew Yang receives 3 percent, and no other candidate tops 1 percent. From August 21 – 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,422 self-identified registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, including the design effect. The survey includes 648 Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points, including the design effect. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues. Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Email [email protected], or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll. 2 1. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for president; a lot, some, only a little, or none at all? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No A lot 47% 56% 50% 42% 50% 45% 54% 49% Some 30 25 31 32 28 31 27 29 Only a little 16 14 15 17 16 16 14 16 None at all 6 5 4 7 5 7 5 6 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp A lot 35% 42% 51% 61% 52% 51% 51% 41% 34% Some 40 30 28 24 27 29 28 32 31 Only a little 16 23 15 9 16 14 15 18 21 None at all 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 8 12 DK/NA 2 - 1 1 - 1 1 - 3 DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS....................................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY WHITE...... LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Yes No A lot 50% 69% 45% 47% 51% 50% 59% 38% 61% 56% Some 31 25 36 31 30 31 27 33 25 29 Only a little 14 3 16 16 12 15 11 20 12 10 None at all 4 3 2 6 6 3 4 8 2 5 DK/NA - - 1 - 1 - - 1 - - PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS.............. INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ A lot 50% 52% 39% 44% 52% 69% 43% 55% 53% Some 31 30 41 32 32 19 30 31 33 Only a little 15 12 13 20 11 10 20 8 12 None at all 4 5 7 3 5 3 6 6 2 DK/NA - 1 1 - - - 1 - - TREND: How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for president; a lot, some, only a little, or none at all? OnlyA None A lot Some Little AtAll DK/NA Aug 28, 2019 47 30 16 6 1 Jul 29, 2019 48 28 15 9 1 Jun 11, 2019 42 30 18 10 - May 21, 2019 44 30 17 8 - Apr 30, 2019 49 28 13 8 1 3 2. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) If the Democratic primary for president were being held today, and the candidates were: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Julian Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, John Delaney, Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Yang, Marianne Williamson, Wayne Messam, Tim Ryan, Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock, Bill de Blasio, Joe Sestak, and Tom Steyer, for whom would you vote? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS....................................... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY WHITE...... LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Yes No Biden 32% 15% 29% 41% 32% 32% 30% 46% 29% 30% Sanders 15 22 18 10 19 12 14 10 9 19 O'Rourke 1 - 2 1 2 1 2 - 2 1 Harris 7 12 7 5 6 7 7 7 11 3 Warren 19 34 23 13 18 20 23 10 25 20 Booker 1 3 - 1 1 2 1 3 1 2 Gillibrand - - - - - - - - - - Klobuchar 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 - 2 - Castro - 1 1 - - 1 1 - 1 1 Gabbard 1 3 - 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 Delaney - - - - - - - - - - Buttigieg 5 5 6 5 7 3 7 - 7 6 Yang 3 1 4 3 2 3 2 - 2 3 Williamson 1 - - 1 1 - 1 - - 1 Messam - - - - - - - - - - Ryan - - - - - - - - - - Bennet 1 - - 2 1 1 1 3 - 1 Bullock 1 - - 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 de Blasio 1 - - 1 1 1 1 - - 1 Sestak - - - - - - - - - - Steyer - - - - - - - - 1 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 - 1 - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - - 3 1 3 1 6 1 2 DK/NA 9 5 9 10 7 11 7 15 7 6 Cont’d 4 2 cont’d. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) If the Democratic primary for president were being held today, and the candidates were: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Julian Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, John Delaney, Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Yang, Marianne Williamson, Wayne Messam, Tim Ryan, Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock, Bill de Blasio, Joe Sestak, and Tom Steyer, for whom would you vote? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS................................. PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS.............. INCOME............. Dem DemLn 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+ Biden 33% 28% 10% 34% 37% 48% 34% 28% 33% Sanders 13 21 31 13 12 4 20 16 9 O'Rourke 1 2 1 2 3 - 1 3 1 Harris 8 3 6 7 10 3 3 8 12 Warren 19 19 25 19 15 20 16 23 23 Booker 2 - 3 2 1 - - 1 1 Gillibrand - - - - - - - - - Klobuchar - 1 - - 1 1 - - 2 Castro - 1 - - 1 - - - 1 Gabbard 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 3 - Delaney - - - - - - - - - Buttigieg 4 8 6 6 3 6 4 3 6 Yang 3 2 8 1 2 1 2 3 2 Williamson - 2 - 1 - - 1 - - Messam - - - - - - - - - Ryan - - - - - - - - - Bennet 1 1 - 1 2 - 2 - - Bullock - 1 - - 1 2 1 1 - de Blasio 1 2 3 - - - 1 2 - Sestak - - - - - - - - - Steyer - 1 - - - - - 1 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 - - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 - 4 3 2 4 - 1 DK/NA 10 5 6 7 8 11 10 7 7 Cont’d 5 2 cont’d.
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