Government Relations Update Election 2010 Special Edition The Political Pendulum Swings Back to Favor GOP period of Democratic dominance, but only two years later the public has voted for change. While some are sure to trumpet the Republican victory as a validation of the GOP’s agenda, recent history warns of over- interpreting the election results. Analysts and pundits have repeatedly argued over the last several election cycles that a significant victory by one party or the other is the first step to an enduring or permanent majority; however, after last night’s results, it is clearer than ever that the pendulum continues to swing, and that the U.S. political waters continue to be roiled. While Republicans and Democrats both may overstate the long-term significance of last night’s Republican victory, there are some broad mes- sages from yesterday’s results. First and foremost, voters across the board are deeply concerned that the economy has not rebounded. Voters force- fully rejected the assertion by economists and the Obama administration that the economy is in recovery. Second, there is great unease about the John Boehner (R – Ohio) policies being pursued to address the economic crisis. The various policy For the third time in four years, Americans battles of the last two years—stimulus, health care reform, and financial have voted for major change in Washington. Last services reform—were grouped together by voters and viewed as an night was a resounding victory for the GOP as ineffective, contentious, and confusing agenda. they took control of the House of Representatives Last night’s results have delivered a House of Representatives in which with historic gains, significantly improved their the caucuses of both parties have been pulled further away from the center. position in the Senate—falling just short of the Moderate Democrats (the “Blue Dogs”) were routed by Republican chal- majority—and regained the majority of governor- lengers in this election; the emergence of the many Tea Party-backed ships. In 2008, President Obama’s resounding candidates has left the Republican caucus with only a handful of moder- victory had many experts predicting a sustained ates remaining. © 2010, BLANK ROME GOVERNMENT RELATIONS LLC. Notice: The purpose of this newsletter is to review the latest developments which are of interest to clients of Blank Rome. The information contained herein is abridged from legislation, court decisions, administrative rulings, and other sources and should not be construed as legal advice or opinion, and is not a substitute for the advice of counsel. Watergate • 600 New Hampshire Ave., NW • Washington, DC 20037 • (202) 772-5800 Mid-Term Elections 2010 In the Senate, the now slimmer Democratic conference to the right, while moderate Democratic losses will drive the majority will likely lead to an uphill battle for the Democratic caucus to the left. White House agenda. During the 111th Congress, the 59 Democratic seats in the Senate proved House Leadership very difficult for President Obama in his attempts Political analysts had forecasted a large Republican pick-up of at least to move the White House’s initiatives. It will be 50 seats, and momentum near the end of the election trended mostly in somewhat more difficult now, but with a GOP the GOP’s favor. The huge victory assured that current Minority Leader House, there will likely be more emphasis on the John Boehner (R-OH) takes over the Speaker’s gavel next year, with relationship between the White House and the Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA) assuming the Majority Leader’s spot. House of Representatives than on the White Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), currently the Chief Deputy Whip, is the House and the Senate. favorite to be elected Majority Whip. Chairman of the Republican The GOP had a very big night at the state Conference Mike Pence (R-IN) has indicated that he may leave the level, winning the majority of governorships and Republican leadership in order to pursue a possible run for Governor of the state legislatures. While the GOP gains in the Indiana or President in 2012, leaving the fourth-ranking position wide- states were large, there were some bright spots open. It has been speculated that Current Vice Chair of the Conference for Democrats in gubernatorial races. Democrats Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA) and Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-TX) are now claim the governorships in California and eyeing the position, with current NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions (R-TX) New York. Democratic strength in those states also mentioned as a potential candidate for Conference Chairman. has the potential to blunt the impact the GOP tide could have had on the redistricting process, The Balance of Power: U.S. House of Representatives which will take place in 2011 and 2012. 112TH CONGRESS The 112th Congress 185 11 239 House of Representatives—Largest Losses Democrat 185 Undecided 11 Republican 239 Since FDR’s Presidency TH With a net pickup of at least 60 seats—with 111 CONGRESS incomplete results showing GOP leads in four 257 178 more races—Republicans achieved a milestone Democrat 257 Republican 178 victory in American politics, winning more seats On the Democratic side, all eyes are on Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s next than the GOP takeover of 1994, and represent- move and whether she will run for minority leader, step aside from ing the largest loss for the president’s party in the leader ship, or resign from the House altogether. No former Speaker of the House since Republicans won 55 seats in 1942, House has gone on to lead their party in the minority after the House and 71 seats in 1938. The victory will changed control since Sam Rayburn in the 1950s. However, give Republicans a 239-183 majority there is not a great deal of historical precedent, and it is in the 112th Congress, with 13 seats unknown what Speaker Pelosi plans to do. If Speaker still undecided. Tea Party- backed Pelosi decides to run for the Minority Leader post, she will candidates saw big victories, which be the favorite and it is unknown whether anyone in the are sure to push the Republican caucus would challenge her. In the event that Pelosi does step down, Current Majority Leader Steny Hoyer is the favorite to lead the party in the House. However, the 2 Mid-Term Elections 2010 Defeated Incumbents: House of Representatives James L. Oberstar, D-MN. Ike Skelton, D-MO Travis W. Childers, D-MS Harry E. Mitchell, D-AZ Bob Etheridge, D-NC Anh “Joseph” Cao, R-LA Charles K. Djou, R-HI John Boccieri, D-OH Christopher Carney, D-PA Walt Minnick, D-ID Gene Taylor, D-MS Paul E. Kanjorski, D-PA Dina Titus, D-NV Charlie Wilson, D-OH Zack Space, D-OH John Salazar, D-CO Patrick J. Murphy, D-PA Frank Kratovil Jr., D-MD Betsy Markey, D-CO Kathy Dahlkemper, D-PA Jim Marshall, D-GA Ann Kirkpatrick, D-AZ Mary Jo Kilroy, D-OH Chet Edwards, D-TX Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, D-SD Bill Foster, D-IL Lincoln Davis, D-TN Ciro D. Rodriguez, D-TX Michael E. McMahon, D-NY Allen Boyd, D-FL Bobby Bright, D-AL Steve Kagen, D-WI Carol Shea-Porter, D-NH Ron Klein, D-FL Steve Driehaus, D-OH Glenn Nye, D-VA Mark Schauer, D-MI Phil Hare, D-IL Baron P. Hill, D-IN Scott Murphy, D-NY Debbie Halvorson, D-IL Alan Grayson, D-FL John Hall, D-NY Earl Pomeroy, D-ND Rick Boucher, D-VA Harry Teague, D-NM John M. Spratt Jr., D-SC Tom Perriello, D-VA Michael Arcuri, D-NY John Adler, D-NJ Suzanne M. Kosmas, D-FL Democratic Caucus saw a large number of its Steering Committee is expected to meet to elect new committee chair- moderate wing depart in defeat, making it men when they meet the week of November 29th. become more liberal and there is the potential Further complicating matters, a potential conflict is brewing on several that a member from the left wing of the committees because of Republicans’ self-imposed rules limiting Members Democratic caucus could challenge Hoyer for to six-year terms as ranking member or chairman of a committee. Foremost Minority leader. Both party’s leadership elections on the list of ranking members who face the end of their six-year limit is are expected to happen occur the House recon- Jerry Lewis (R-CA), who otherwise would be slated to take over the venes the week of November 15th. Appropriations Committee. Lewis intends to seek a waiver on the six-year ban, but if he fails, the next Republican in line for the gavel would be Hal House Committees Rogers (R-KY). The committee leadership is going to see a The Financial Services Committee will likely see a fight for the chair- tremendous shake-up in the 112th Congress, manship, since current ranking member Spencer Bachus (R-AL) was with a crop of young Republican leaders replac- largely relegated to the sidelines during his committee’s debate on the ing much older Democratic chairs. Many financial regulatory overhaul. Several other members such as Reps. Ed Republican chairmen will be first-timers, differing Royce (R-CA), Jeb Hensarling (R-TX), and Scott Garrett (R-NJ) have been from the many Democratic chairs who regained mentioned as potential chairmen. Bachus is favored to win the battle, but gavels they lost in 1994. Boehner has publically the committee will probably see a number of freshman members added indicated that he will give more power back to to the roster. Dave Camp (R-MI) is almost guaranteed to become Chair the committees, making the gavel fights more of the Ways and Means Committee, and it is highly likely that Paul Ryan important for the next Congress.